NFL Games Of 2019

The NFL's 100th season has been as compelling as the league has been for almost all of its existence.   Of course it takes time to build something and the NFL did just that.   Amid controversy over officiating, pace of play, etc. the 2019 season has seen quite a number of stunning games.   A video presentation below:


Lions at Cardinals

A rare tie seemed to bode well for both the Detroit Lions - who now appeared to be buying into coach Matt Patricia after a rough 2018 - and the Cardinals with first year coach Kliff Kingsbury, in his first ever pro game as a head coach, as well as rookie quarterback Kyler Murray.



Bengals at Seahawks

The Seahawks started a spectacular march through 2019 edging a Bengals team with new coach Zac Taylor that looked a lot more promising than it had been the previous three seasons but which fell into failure with a winless rut not ended until December.




Texans at Saints 

In the periodic Bum Phillips Bowl, the Saints started their own spectacular surge through the season as - speaking of Houston Oilers notoriety - they erased a 21-10 Texans lead and surged to a 27-21 lead, but in the final minute the Texans stormed to the lead, then the Saints booted the 58-yard field goal on the last play.



Giants at Bucs

New Bucs coach Bruce Arians got striking improvement out of the erratic Jameis Winston and an early example was this stunner where the Giants nonetheless erased a three-touchdown gap for a one-point squeaker.



Chiefs at Lions 

The game lead tied or changed eight times and combined for 895 yards and five fumbles.   The game lead changed four times in the final seventeen minutes and Darrel Williams' second score of the fourth quarter won it for Kansas City.




Chargers at Titans

While not an especially high-scoring affair it was a turning point in the season as the 2-4 Titans gave up on 2015 first rounder Marcus Mariota and went to ex-Dolphin Ryan Tannehill.  Tannehill responded by delivering the Titans to a tight win, their second over the Chargers in the decade after going winless against San Diego since 1992.  



Bucs at Seahawks

74 combined points, 910 combined yards, a missed Seahawks FGA, and the lead tying or changing eight times wound up meaning one thing - it had to be settled in overtime.   And the Surging Seahawks and Russell Wilson delivered again.



Chiefs at Titans 

For the eighth time in nine meetings the Titans upended a team coached by Andy Reid.  The two teams exceeded 900 yards and the lead tied once and changed five times as the Titans rushed like it was Eddie George.   It was Titans special teams that proved decisive in the final two minutes after a failed Tannehill fourth down conversion; after three straight Chiefs run plays the Chiefs gagged the FGA and it turned into an intentional grounding penalty; from there Tannehill turned into Steve McNair on an eighteen yard rush, a twenty yard completion, then a twenty-three yard touchdown strike.   The Chiefs raced to the Titans 34 but the kick was blocked.



Seahawks at Forty Niners 

The undefeated Niners hosted the surging Seahawks and the battle of NFC powers was a brutally tight affair as the Niners erased a 21-10 Seahawks lead, forced overtime, then the Seahawks stormed to the Niners 4 in nine plays but Russell Wilson was intercepted.   Jimmy Garoppolo clawed the Niners to a FGA that failed.  Two punts followed and the Seahawks finally ended this affair at the end of overtime.



Eagles at Dolphins 

The Dolphins under new coach Brian Flores were supposed to tank the season to draft Tua Tagovailoa; for most of the season they were terrible, but then started to win a few games.  The Eagles were supposed to challenge for the NFC East and a playoff bye; the division proved so weak that 7-9 threatened to be the record needed to win it, and the Eagles fell to 5-7 at Davie, FL in a game where they led 28-14 but the Dolphins stormed back to win.



Colts at Bucs

2003's 21-point meltdown to Indianapolis forever haunts the Bucs and this shootout threatened to add more misery but the Bucs kept firing, despite a hand injury that sidelined Jameis Winston for part of the third quarter.  Winston rallied the Bucs as they trailed almost the whole game and surged to a 38-35 shocker.  



Arguably this is Game Of The Year - Forty Niners at Saints

The NFC as of December is defined by the Niners, Saints, Seahawks, Packers, and Vikings, and two of them exploded in the Superdome in a chaotic affair that stormed past 100 combined points and reinforced the NFC West showdown combined with a shocker loss by the Seahawks later that night. 



This page is still under construction.   Please be patient.

For Rest Of NFL Now What?

Superbowl LIII overanalysis will happen in due course, but right now it's best to take a quick look at the other thirty teams and where they stand entering the off-season.

Worth noting is the universal hatred of the New England Patriots.   That the Patriots keep winning AFC Championships inevitably has gotten boring and tiresome to most, as objectively speaking one should want other teams like Tennessee, Kansas City, etc. to break through.   The Patriots though are not supposed to roll over. 

So these other teams need to figure out how to beat them.




AMERICAN FOOTBALL CONFERENCE -



Kansas City Chiefs - Perhaps no team has more to work with now than the Chiefs.  The biggest issue facing them is their history.  In fifty-nine seasons they have 479 total wins, but just ten of them are playoff wins, among the weakest playoff records in league history - and five of them came in the AFL era with three AFL titles and Superbowl IV.   They have now lost to all five AFC East legacy teams (this includes Indianapolis, an AFC East team 1970-2001) and their legacy has not been Hank Stram, 65 Toss Power Trap, or that long-ago Superbowl; their legacy now is a team of heartbreak.

Rearming for 2019 should not be a problem; overcoming their history is the issue.   Certainly Patrick Mahomes looks to be the one who can do it, having once and for all proven he can handle the playoffs.



San Diego Chargers - Yeah I know they play their home games in a rinky-dink soccer stadium in LA and are supposed to be part of the Rams' new LA Stadium Entertainment Park in Inglewood, CA in 2020, but there is zero LA audience for the Chargers.   They also showed some glaring coaching weakness in the rout at Foxboro with a defensive gameplan that never seemed to be adjusted even as the Patriots kept on scoring   Philip Rivers had a superb overall season but 5-6 in the playoffs and a pedestrian 84 passer rating within at his age indicate we've seen the best of him and now the Chargers need to start preparing for a successor while also addressing coaching gaffes on display in Foxboro.



Denver Broncos - Since starting 7-3 in the 2016 season it's all fallen apart for John Elway.  The Broncos are now 13-25 coming out of their 2016 bye week and they now do not have a viable quarterback.   One feels bad for Case Keenum after his spectacular 14-4 season with the Vikings but it's now obvious he was a one-season wonder, and Elway's competence as a GM becomes more of a question.   Right now the Broncos look like a team in long-term struggle.



Oakland Raiders - After Jon Gruden's first year back as head coach, what are the Raiders?   They have a big problem for 2019 of not having a home stadium with their deal at Alameda County Coliseum now done, to where they may play out the season in San Antonio's Alamodome.    Yet an overlooked aspect of their season was they got better in the final seven games, winning three of them including tense affairs against the Cardinals and a Steelers team they've largely owned since 2009.   So the more Gruden guys come into the team, the better it would seem they are becoming.   How much better they can get remains the big question.


*****



Buffalo Bills -  They made the playoffs in 2017 but with rookie Josh Allen they faltered to just six wins.   Allen had the usual rough rookie season for quarterbacks but his was rougher than most with his completion percentage stuck in the 50-percent range almost all season until he broke through with three scores in the season finale's 42-17 rout of the Dolphins.   Offensive Coordinator Brian Daboll and his history of weak offenses did Allen no favors, so what he truly can be may not show up in 2019, though improvement is certainly a must.



Miami Dolphins -  The Ryan Tannehill era may be over and Patriots Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores may become Miami's new head coach - already scuttlebutt is Patriots WR coach Chad O'Shea will take over as OC.   More scuttlebutt is the Dolphins will tank the season to be able to draft one of the hotshot passer prospects coming out for 2020, a strategy that worked for the Suck-For-Luck Colts of 2011.   But the Colts still had a history of success at that point and Luck largely kept that reputation going - the Dolphins haven't had much success since 2003, and it's hard to envision a turnaround in 2019.



New York Jets -  The Jets may have played Suck For Sam in 2017, but is Sam Darnold truly as good as expected?  Darnold accounted for all four Jets wins but was stuck at 57 percent completion and came under fire for his effort against the Vikings, a game where the 3-3 Jets went into a Jet-like collapse of 1-9.   Adam Gase - Miami's ex-coach - takes over after the failed Todd Bowles experiment, but how much better if at all is Gase?


*****



Baltimore Ravens -  The Ravens won the AFC North and have hitched to Lamar Jackson, but Jackson's mediocre passing ability throughout the season after replacing presumptive cap casualty (and possible trade bait) Joe Flacco stood out even as he won six of his eight total starts.   He posted passer ratings in the 100 range twice in a three-week span, then regressed down to the 78-81 bracket, and his weak effort in the playoff loss to the Chargers bodes poorly down the road - he's another athlete who thinks he's a quarterback but doesn't play the position credibly; that he finished a close second in rushing behind Gus Edwards is a bad sign for a quarterback.



Pittsburgh Steelers -  No evidence of a disciplined culture.   Finger-pointing.   Players carrying themselves as entitled brats.   Coaches doing nothing discernible to correct errors.    Such is the Steelers and their third season this decade out of the playoffs - and just 3-5 in playoffs since losing to the Packers in the Superbowl - raises anew the question of how a team this poorly run can win as much as it does.   Certainly the talent is there in bunches; the effort, though, leaves everything to be desired.



Cleveland Browns -  In contrast the worst team this decade or any other may actually be becoming a genuine contender.   Baker Mayfield may be a jerk who patterns his game after the wrong guy - Mister Interception Brett Favre - but it's clear he's the quarterback they've desperately needed all these years.   Winning five of their last seven games and the heartbreaker at Baltimore indicate a Browns team that's finally going somewhere.



Cincinnati Bengals -  The Marvin Lewis era is over and with the reported hiring of Zac Taylor as head coach and Brian Callahan as Offensive Coordinator, the Bengals have to get more out of a talented squad that fell apart after starting 5-3.   Andy Dalton is presumptive starter for 2019 but it's clear he plateaued in his first five seasons; Jeff Driskel won just once in five starts in 2018, so we doubt he can be the answer there.


*****



Indianapolis Colts -  It's clear Andrew Luck is back.   It's also clear that isn't enough.   Losing to a Chiefs team the Colts have owned since 1990 is a terrible sign going forward.   The overall comeback after Luck's lost 2017 and the 1-5 start to 2018 certainly bodes well going forward.



Tennessee Titans -  Injuries to Marcus Mariota helped ruin a positive debut season for coach Mike Vrabel, but the loss of Delanie Walker in the first week wound up hurting the offense all season.   The loss to San Diego wound up being the one that got away on the missed two-point conversion, but getting embarrassed by the Colts again is exactly what now is stopping this team from advancing farther.   The second year for Vrabel and a revamped staff will be a sign going forward, and keeping Mariota healthy is a necessity.



Houston Texans -  Deshaun Watson's comeback boosted the Texans to the division title, but an utterly listless performance in the playoffs raises questions not only about Watson but also coach Bill O'Brien, who finally broke out of his 9-7 rut with eleven wins.   Now the Texans need to see if Watson, only into his third season, can advance his game; his 103.1 passer rating is fantastic and all but the same as his injury-shortened rookie year.   So there's ample reason for optimism here.



Jacksonville Jaguars -  Shockingly for a Tom Coughlin team the Jaguars regressed into the kind of undisciplined gaggle of ego-drunk losers that never goes anywhere.    The rumor of a trade for Joe Flacco should tell you everything about the irrelevance of Blake Bortles now, but getting this team back into a disciplined program is paramount. 




NATIONAL FOOTBALL CONFERENCE -

 New Orleans Saints - No, Gayle Benson and everyone else - not calling pass interference on the late Rams drive (it simply isn't as clear cut as people say it is, especially given the real officiating problem is over-officiating) is not the problem here.   The problem now is squarely Sean Payton and Drew Brees.   That Brees failed to top 4,000 yards for the first time in his Saints career was surprising but ultimately irrelevant.   The reality is Payton and Brees presided over blowing a two-touchdown lead just as the Eagles had blown a two-score lead the week before.   They now have a playoff record of 8-6 together, certainly nothing to be ashamed of but also not a record befitting the hype that periodically engulfs discussion about them - and more fatefully not a positive sign going forward given their age.   The overall roster is manifestly better now after the 2014-16 period of losing records; finding answers they have had trouble finding in the playoffs is the key for 2019.



Atlanta Falcons -  The Steve Sarkisian period is now over and can't be considered much of a success.   Now the Falcons have to figure out how to become a playoff contender again with a new staff, and also try to get more out of Matt Ryan, whose career has been defined by underachievement.   Shoring up line play is certainly a necessity; Ryan wound up getting sacked 42 times in 2018 despite a passer rating of 108.



Carolina Panthers -  Cam Newton is now the problem.    The team's owner's comments about his shoulder before Newton underwent surgery carried with them inference that the Panthers are tiring of Newton, whose game has not shown sufficient growth and in fact looks stuck in neutral, especially after the season collapse endured by the Panthers.   We're not sure Kyle Allen, winner vs the Saints, is the answer there, but it's worth keeping an eye on.



Tampa Bay Buccaneers -  So is Jameis Winston the answer, or the problem?  Is ex-Cardinals wonderboy Bruce Arians the answer?  Ryan Fitzpatrick started seven games and his 100 passer rating tops Winston's 90, but Winston won three games to Fitzpatrick's two.   They combined for some 5,100 passing yards, but just five wins out of that doesn't augur well.   Neither does Tampa's less-than-inspiring run defense that gave up 1,900 yards on the ground, nineteen scores, and 4.7 yards per carry   It hasn't been working for the Bucs, we're not sure 2019 will see much improvement.


*****



Dallas Cowboys -  Sean Payton to Dallas?   That rumor recirculated following New Orleans' playoff loss, but seems unlikely.   Certainly the Cowboys took a step forward in 2018 after a 3-5 start and their defense against the Saints late in the regular season opened a lot of eyes.   But it's clear Jerry Jones' boy Jason Garrett does not have what it takes to coach in this league.



Philadelphia Eagles -  Remember Lane Johnson's stupid rant about the Patriots not having any fun and his team being a fun team?   Fun teams don't win and the 2018 Eagles proved that again.  The upshot is Nick Foles had to come in as a relief quarterback just like in 2017 and darn near replicated his preposterous Superbowl rally again.   So now the Eagles have to ask themselves - is Carson Wentz really that good?



Washington Redskins -  Now the league itself is getting tired of Dan Snyder and his incompetent meddlesome ownership as the Skins finished 7-9 after a 6-4 start and losing new quarterback Alex Smith to gruesome injury against the Texans.   It's impossible to forsee any improvement here.



New York Giants - A 1-7 start and a finish of 0-3 - with a 4-1 middle - was another subpar season for Eli Manning, the guy they can't get rid of - which leads to the question of how hard they're trying to get rid of him.    This is another team where improvement is difficult to forsee.


*****



Chicago Bears -  Believe it or not there's reason for optimism after a stunning 12-4 season.  Mitchell Trubisky showed legitimacy in throwing for 24 touchdowns and a passer rating of 95.   The defense got hype galore with the trade for Khalil Mack and leading the league in fewest point allowed.  The drawback is they didn't face more than three legitimate quarterbacks and their only win against one was Week 2 vs Russell Wilson's Seahawks.   So the Bears still have to shore up things, especially on offense.



Green Bay Packers - The Packers fired Mike McCarthy but didn't try to get a coach who will challenge Aaron Rodgers.   Instead they looked for a cipher and Matt LaFleur does not look like someone who will challenge Rodgers.   The Packers are letting Rodgers run the offense and that's a sign they will keep losing after going 13-18-1 the last two seasons. 



Detroit Lions - Offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter was fired after being elevated to the position  halfway through 2015, and Matt Patricia's rough first year now needs to start getting better and the culture of the team needs to begin changing.   Player resentment at Patricia his first season was open but the old Lions way wasn't and won't work, so they need to listen to Patricia and start doing what they're told.     



Minnesota Vikings - The Vikings didn't listen to the truth about Kirk Cousins - a loudmouthed mediocrity who never elevates his game when needed.  They're thus stuck as a team 8-8 or 9-7 despite a good defense and a strong overall roster.    Don't expect improvement with Cousins.


*****



Arizona Cardinals - Normally one-and-out isn't the right approach for handling the coach but a paltry three wins and dismal performance from the highly-touted rookie Josh Rosen are more than enough to justify firing the coach.   Everything needs to get better here. 



San Francisco 49ers - Did the Jimmy Garoppolo era end before it began?   Another season, another season-ending injury, and Garoppolo's streak of wins as a starter ended and he won only once in three starts.   CJ Beathard's career is an obvious failure at 0-5 last year.   Nick Mullins, the undrafted walk-on for the 2017 Niners, wound up starting half the season beginning with a delightful 34-3 embarrassment of the Raiders.   He won just three of his eight starts, but it's a start nonetheless, so we await what transpires next.   His four touchdowns in a losing effort against the Rams was also noteworthy and a good sign going forward.



Seattle Seahawks -  A roster makeover several years in the making is now paying off as the Seahawks started 4-5 then won six of their last seven and most impressively had a plus-16 turnover differential.   Russell Wilson's 35 touchdowns got overlooked in the aura of Patrick Mahomes and others, but they showed anew Wilson is for real.  Not much improvement is needed here. 



So it goes as the Superbowl counts down.

Playoff Push Getting Pushed For Week 16

And suddenly the 2018 NFL season isn't what we thought it would be.

The first sign of Upset Weekend was San Diego's upset of the Kansas City Chiefs, the Chargers'  first win over the Chiefs since 2013, and coming when San Diego at almost no point of the game seemed capable of a comeback, especially after Philip Rivers' atrocious INT in the endzone in the second quarter.

Easily the worst loss for a division leader was New England's horrific effort at Pittsburgh.   The Steelers gagged up two more INTs and managed just 17 points, but Tom Brady's overreliance on a binky in Julian Edelman cost his team again with the INT, then the fourth down failure where Cordarrelle Patterson (three catches) was open entering the endzone yet Brady ignored him for the binky - an atrocious myopia especially considering Brady's unprecedented career success yet disturbingly repeated over Brady's career at inopportune times, notably 2014 at Kansas City and earlier this season at Tennessee - worth remembering is that in 2005 Belichick began riding Brady to get away from Deion Branch (his first binky); also it should be remembered that when Belichick has challenged Brady on the receiving corps - 2006, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2014 - Brady responded.

Indianapolis and Tennessee are now in a three-way fight wth Baltimore for the last AFC playoff spot with shutout wins over NFC East teams.  Derrick Henry's eruption continued with 33 runs and 170 yards and two scores.

Dallas' loss aided the Eagles, who had to change quarterbacks again and suddenly Nick Foles may not be just a backup going forward even beyond 2018, as he led the Eagles to a 30-23 win at LA.

The Bears cinched the NFC North by putting the Packers out of everyone's misery, yet another Aaron Rodgers loss down two scores.


So now the last two weeks beckon and some teams better hurry up and clinch something -






Titans over Redskins -   Tennessee keeps on keeping on and the Redskins clawed out the win at Jacksonville but overall once again don't have it for a playoff effort.


Chargers over Ravens - The Ravens are getting the wins with Lamar Jackson, but a pedestrian 82 passer rating (lower than that of Joe Flacco, now certain to be gone from the Ravens by season's end) and now being the team's leading rusher (566 yards and five yards per carry; Gus Edwards is second at 550 yards, also 5 YPC) simply are not sustainable results for success; at some point Jackson has to become a better passer - and ratings of 100 and 91 his last two games are an encouraging beginning there.   And a Chargers team that now has the AFC West and a playoff bye to play for won't roll over for the Ravens, whose own division chances were harmed by Pittsburgh's upset win.


Browns over Bengals -   The Browns have motivation to keep winning, and Gregg Williams may have played his way into the full-time coaching job, while the Bengals' season is shot.  Jeff Driskel got a needed win against the Raiders yet was awful in doing so at a worthless 51.3 in passer rating.


Vikings over Lions -  The recent history has turned against the Lions in this rivalry with two straight losses to a Vikings team that showed shocking rejuvenation after changing offensive coordinators, a doubly bad sign given the Lions season became irrelevant weeks back and is a poor beginning for Matt Patricia.   It's also time to reconsider Matthew Stafford, finishing his tenth season with his fifth losing record and just two seasons above nine wins. 


Packers over NY Jets  - The lack of hustle at the very end of the Jets' loss to Houston says everything about the Jets and Sam Darnold, this as they welcome a Packers squad that itself is arguably in worse shape with a locker-room-cancer of a quarterback and a lame-duck interim coach.


Eagles over Texans - Superbowl hero Nick Foles is back and the Eagles look like a stronger team with him.   What to do with him and Carson Wentz are issues for another time; right now the Eagles' playoff lives are at stake and they have a 10-0 lifetime record against Houston NFL teams.   Given the fight of the Texans this year, though, expect a competitive game.


Falcons over Panthers -  The Panthers are now irrelevant with six straight losses.   Cam Newton's arm is shot.   The Falcons finally showed real firepower last week.   Forget it, Carolina.


Colts over NY Giants -   The Colts are surging and the Giants are 1-2 against AFC South teams after their late-season surge got steamrolled by Derrick Henry last week.   Forgotten in this whole thing is the Colts started 1-5 and have all but clinched a winning record for the year.


Cowboys over Buccaneers -  Remember when this used to be a rivalry?  That was all of one or two games.   The Bucs despite 4,677 yards and 31 touchdowns from their quarterbacks are just 5-9 with a 92.85 passer rating and 25 interceptions.   The Cowboys got embarrassed last week and this is the kind of opponent needed to regain momentum.


Dolphins over Jaguars -  Surprisingly, Doug Marrone may stay on as Jaguars coach despite the utter collapse of their season, 30th in scoring and minus-12 in turnover differential vs. Miami's plus-9. 


Patriots over Bills - No doubt disgusted over losing to a Steelers team they own, the Patriots return home with a 3-5 road record and their worst season since 2009.   No pattern has emerged to explain the Patriots' road struggles and the importance of winning the last two games has only grown.   They get in Josh Allen a quarterback unable to reach 55% completion and stuck at 65 in passer rating.


Bears over 49ers -   Nick Mullens has played well with passer ratings above 102 the last two games, but the surging Bears want to keep up momentum for their first playoff run since 2010.


Rams over Cardinals -  Losing to the Eagles was a double blow to the Rams, whose chance at the top NFC seed is now gone, and since their bye week they've scored just 20 points a game with nine turnovers.  Jared Goff ironically broke out of a recent slump against the Eagles, going from 48


Saints over Steelers -   The Steelers somehow escaped with a win, and now they go to a banged-up Saints team averaging just seventeen points per game their last three contests.   We think, though, the Saints will grind out the win as they've been doing lately.


Chiefs over Seahawks -  As strong as the Seahawks have been the loss at San Francisco takes some starch out of them as the Chiefs, who've begun to win ugly with some more frequency lately, want to bounce back from losing to the Chargers.


Broncos over Raiders -  Not much here with the Raiders at 3-10 and the Broncos now out of the playoffs at 6-8.



So it goes into Week 16.

Playoff Runners Look To Avoid Lateral Damage In Week 15

The Boston Herald had the perfect headline for this game - Lateral Damage.   The Upset Of The Year left everyone shocked as a pass play turned into a hook and double-lateral play that worked.   The win keeps the Dolphins eighth in the AFC playoff race.

Oakland's fourth win in the last six meetings with the Steelers doesn't qualify as an upset because the Steelers had been exposed as frauds entering this game and now the Steelers are sliding - perhaps sliding out of the playoffs a la 1998.   

Tennessee stayed in the playoff run with a 30-9 rout of the Jaguars.   Derrick Henry erupted with 238 rushing yards and four scores, for a season-average of an eye-popping 4.9 yards per carry.   Marcus Mariota thus wasn't asked to do a lot but did complete 75% of his passes, yet low yardage, a pick, and a sack left his passer rating at a disappointing 75.   The loss for the Jaguars has led to buzz that GM Tom Coughlin will take over as head coach in 2019.



Chiefs over Chargers -  Until we see it, we can't pick the Chargers over the Chiefs with a nine-game winning streak for Kansas City in this rivalry.   The Chargers nonetheless are playing playoff-caliber ball and look a playoff lock.    One, though, should keep an eye on Patrick Mahomes as for all his brilliance has shown disconcerting signs of sloppiness.


Texans over NY Jets -  The surprising loss to the Colts last week should not be repeated against the punchless Jets as Bill O'Brien is this close to a seasonal record for wins in his coaching career, while Deshaun Watson's comeback season should have MVP buzz circulating.


Broncos over Browns -  The poor performance at the punchless 49ers last week was disconcerting and the Broncos get an improving Browns team.   Baker Mayfield's rookie season has generated more attention than anything the Browns have seen in decades but we still think the Broncos - 23-5 lifetime vs. the Browns and on a win streak dating to 1990 - will pull off the win.


Falcons over Cardinals - One of the "Toilet Bowl" games common to the final month of a season, this showdown between two teams a combined 7-19 doesn't promise much between a dismal rookie season for Josh Rosen and a regression in Matt Ryan.


Ravens over Buccaneers -  The Ravens stumbled against the Chiefs as Lamar Jackson managed two touchdowns but only completed 13 of 24 passes, was sacked three times, and coughed up the game-deciding fumble at the end.   The Ravens get the struggling Bucs coming off blowing it against the Saints.


Titans over NY Giants -  The Giants aren't the pushovers they were earlier this season with four wins in their last five games and 147 points scored in that five-game span.   Yet the Giants have won just twice at home as they host a Titans team playing for a playoff berth and which already has manhandled two of New York's division rivals.


Dolphins over Vikings -   A public controversy erupted between Vikings coach Mike Zimmer and OC John DeFilippo with public criticism of the offense's play-calling - and the result was DeFilippo got canned after the loss at Seattle.   This illustrates a playoff pitch falling away as the Vikings host the surging Dolphins.


Redskins over Jaguars - Both teams are a mess; pick the one that's still 6-7 in this one.


Cowboys over Colts - 7-6 vs. 8-5.  Suddenly this matchup has the makings of a very competitive game with the Cowboys now facing the division title in their grasp and the Colts fighting for very realistic playoff life.   This is only Andrew Luck's second career start against the Cowboys.


Raiders over Bengals -  Collapse for the Bengals has been absolute and Jeff Driskel's unplanned rookie season has been winless in two starts.   The Raiders come in off a liberating win over the hated Steelers.


Bears over Packers -   The fitting image from the Bears' sloppy but effective defeat of the Rams is the fan wearing a Bears jersey # 46 - not for a player, but for the most famous copy of a defense ever seen - the Bears' 46 Defense was just their copy of Jerry Glanville's Gritz Blitz from the Falcons yet it caught everyone's attention in their magical 1985 title season.   The Bears are surging and get a mediocre Packers team they want to smack around after blowing it in Week One.


Lions over Bills - Here is what you need to know -  Brian Daboll is a failure as an OC and Josh Allen has been worthless in his rookie season.   Pick the struggling Lions.


Seahawks over 49ers -  The Seahawks looked in trouble earlier this season, that's not the case now, especially with a five-season winning streak over the punchless Niners.


Patriots over Steelers -  New England's shocker of a loss at Miami will doubly motivate them to crush a collapsing Steelers team that's been in freefall the last four games and which has proven it cannot beat the Patriots for anything.


Rams over Eagles -  Both teams are coming off losses, yet the Rams remain the easy favorite for the NFC's top seeds and the Eagles' playoff chances are all but gone even if they win out.   The caveat here is the Eagles have won their last five meetings with the Rams.


Saints over Panthers -  The Saints rebounded from the loss in Dallas by beating the other team that had beaten them this season, and now they get a faltering Panthers team that has lost five straight and four of its last five meetings with the Saints.



Take the season laterally as it winds down.

Packer It In With Three To Go

Adam Thielen - held to just 28 yards with a score - blows up at Bill Belichick

The final three weeks of the NFL season see the playoff race getting clearer - yet also murkier.

The first shocker of the weekend may well be Upset Of The Season as the Cowboys clamped down - hard - on the New Orleans Saints.   Limited to ten points the Saints had no answer for a Cowboys defense that was timing its attack on Saints receivers perfectly.   This game and the games that followed over Week 13 served as rebuttal to the striking commentary following the 54-51 Rams win over the Chiefs, commentary that portrayed 90-plus-point games as the new normal to where low-scoring defensive struggles were somehow legislated out of the game - and even conveyed a sense that high-scoring football somehow is bad for the game.   Defense and offense cycle around and always will.

Titans over Jaguars  - Tennessee got back into contention with another comeback win, this one down 16 to the Jets who'd given the Patriots a tough time the week before.    Marcus Mariota now has ten comeback wins in this, his fourth season, and he has eight comebacks from down at least two scores (in contrast to Aaron Rodgers with just seven comebacks down two-plus scores in eleven seasons even taking into account seasons truncated by injury). Even so, it's clear how much the Titans miss Delanie Walker and his explosiveness, and one certainly hopes when he comes back in 2019 that firepower is still there.

The Jaguars have lost four of the last five meetings with the Titans but are coming off an impressive grinder of a win - their first since the end of September - over the surging Indianapolis Colts.   They also have in Cody Kessler a quarterback who is just 1-8 as a starter but always showed genuine promise in his 2016 season with the hapless Browns.



Patriots over Dolphins - By now it's clear the Dolphins are a better team with Ryan Tannehill than without him.   The Dolphins have also largely held their own at home vs the Patriots - but an 8-8 split the last sixteen visits to Davie, FL isn't any trend to worry the Patriots, though the condition of the turf has at times irked Bill Belichick.   The Patriots are racing for a playoff bye and also to better flesh out their overall game; expect a competition matchup here.



Bills over NY Jets -   The Jets' debut season for Sam Darnold has gone the all-too-common path of a rough initiation for the rookie, expected to start after missing three games with a foot injury.   The Bills' quarterback situation, though, is also troubling as Josh Allen continues to struggle with two more picks at Miami.




Browns over Panthers  - By firing two assistant coaches the Panthers have signalled the season is lost at 6-6, and four more INTs by Cam Newton showcase how the Panthers have faltered with four straight losses and a turnover differential of just plus-one vs. Cleveland's eye-popping plus-ten.   Baker Mayfield's Brett Favre imitation vs. the Houston Texans was the ugly side of the rookie.

Buccaneers over Saints - Believe it or not the Bucs are 5-7 despite all their quarterbacking issues and Jameis Winston, the presumptive starter, has had success against Drew Brees.  New Orleans' loss at Dallas punctured the myth of invincibility and this is also a rematch of the 48-40 shootout, the only other loss for the Saints so far.





Lions over Cardinals -   The Lions' season is just playing out the string and it's obvious Matt Patricia now needs to start developing a successor to Matthew Stafford.   The Cardinals' rookie, though, has not played better than the veteran and the two teams are a combined minus-nine in turnover differential. 



Eagles over Cowboys -  The Cowboys are now solidly in the playoff hunt, but the Eagles aren't out of it yet, and proved that by grinding out the win over the injury-shot Redskins.  The Eagles no doubt remember losing at Lincoln Financial Field so shocking the Cowboys in their own building is added motivation for the defending Superbowl champs. 

Falcons over Packers  - The firing of Mike McCarthy wasn't unexpected; the timing though is.   For the longest time McCarthy has been the punching bag and he certainly has never been an especially gifted coach.   But attacks on him have served to hide the uncoachability of Aaron Rodgers, whose poisonous influence on the Packers has now gotten worse - with Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels rumored a strong candidate for the job it's instructive to remember Green Bay's loss at Foxboro where Rodgers sat alone and made no effort to seek out coaches, while McDaniels and Brian Hoyer were always with Tom Brady on the bench exchanging information. 

The dysfunction of the Packers gives the slumping Falcons some opportunity, but they too are a team with coaching issues, line issues, and quarterbacking issues with Matt Ryan in his eleventh season.

Texans over Colts - The last time these two met the game was a mind-blowing overtime affair.   Frank Reich's fourth-down call in overtime we doubt will be repeated, but then the Texans have gotten a lot better since then as well and are 5-1 at home vs the Colts at 2-4 on the road.   Andrew Luck's career has feasted on division opponents - 22 wins vs 27 against the rest of the league - but he's struggled against the Texans with three straight losses.



Chiefs over Ravens -  The Chiefs' firepower speaks for itself, while the Ravens have quietly clawed into the playoffs and rookie Lamar Jackson has won three straight starts, but in his three games he's already second in team rushing at 404 yards vs Alex Collins' team-leading 414.  His passing game in three games is averaging 180 yards per game - at seven yards per pass - with three INTs to two scores.   Even with that the Ravens are 13th in scoring heading to Arrowhead Stadium.   This is only the second meeting between the two since Andy Reid became Chiefs coach.

NY Giants over Redskins-  Odell Beckham showed anew with his perfunctory effort at an onside kick vs the Bears why despite his undeniable athletic prowess he's not an especially competent or reliable player, and the enabling the Giants appear to have always given him helps explain why they've faltered as badly as they have.   But here they have to face Mark Sanchez, signed to the Skins a few weeks back with Alex Smith and now Colt McCoy both out for the year.   The supreme irony involved is Sanchez reenacted his buttfumble of 2012 but this time recovered his own fumble.



Chargers over Bengals -   The rumbling that Marvin Lewis is done after this season continues and the bizarre story that con-artist coach Hue Jackson will take over is something no one involved should want. 

Jackson's incompetence as a coach was even further illustrated first on Hard Knocks and his belligerent hands-off approach to discipline and player preparation, and then by his post-firing media tour where he refused to be accountable for his struggles.   San Diego is now almost assured a playoff spot and picking off the faltering Bengals is another step.



Broncos over Forty-Niners -  Denver's resurgence is now on a three-game win streak and is seeing the emergence of running back Phillip Lindsey.   Although Case Keenum's completion percentage remains below 60% in that streak he's nonetheless posted passer rating at 95 and 99 in the last two games.   The Broncos late-season playoff contention gets a Niners team that looks like it has given up.

Raiders over Steelers -   This has mismatch written all over it - 7-4-1 vs 2-10.   But the mismatch is deceiving, for the Raiders have won three of the last five meetings with the Steelers and exploded to 35 points (and erased a 14-point gap in the fourth quarter) in this 2015 shootout.    The Raiders are also better at turnover differential than the Steelers, though it's not much to sing about at minus-5 to Pittsburgh's minus-8.   The big picture heading into this game is the Steelers are 0-for-the-season against the AFC West and the me-first culture of the team is starting to show up again with three straight poor performances, and combined with the Ravens' recent surge the Steelers now face their 1998 season collapse twenty years later.



Seahawks over Vikings -  The Seahawks, largely unnoticed, have won three straight, stand with a plus-11 turnover differential, and stand as the NFC's number five seed, and they get a Vikings squad that has lost three of its last five and showed to be weaker than advertised, and which has yet to beat Pete Carroll since he joined the Seahawks. Of course Kirk Cousins was bound to bring this result, as despite over 3,400 yards and twenty-three touchdowns this year he showed with the Redskins he isn't that good, and passer rating below 77 in two of his last three games - not to mention two other games where he didn't reach 90 in passer rating - merely illustrates further his bombastic mediocrity.

Contrast this with Russell Wilson, who has stormed past 110 in passer rating eight times this season and is above twelve average yards per pass in his last two games.



Thus is the stretch run on.

NFL Final Five Now On

The final five weeks of the regular season are now on, and we now can see who will make the playoffs.

Tennessee's playoff chances effectively ended in a 34-17 Monday Night loss at Houston - the seventh straight loss at Houston.   Marcus Mariota had a superb game with just one incompletion and two touchdowns, but was sacked some six times as the Titans' line play has become a serious problem in two straight division games; the Titans overall offense came under fire for its emphasis on the run as well especially when compared to Houston's offense as Deshaun Watson has raced the Texans to eight straight wins after an 0-3 start and the AFC South now looks theirs for the taking - a fitting tribute to team owner Robert McNair following his passing.

Pittsburgh remains in command of the AFC North but took a serious blow in Roethlisberger's game-ending INT at Denver, who suddenly look up to a wildcard playoff challenge.   Pittsburgh's poor performance at Jacksonville exposed the Steelers' weaknesses and their playoff history since 2010 augurs poorly for their postseason.

The Colts enter this weekend as the #6 seed in the AFC with a rare Andrew Luck win over an AFC East opponent, and their schedule gets more promising.



Cowboys over Saints -   This is a radical pick and certainly there is ample reason to pick the Saints.   But the Cowboys have begun to run some momentum for themselves and one wonders if New Orleans can keep up their recent pace; as we saw with Kansas City maintaining this pace can falter.


Texans over Browns -  Houston is flying and gets a surging Browns team in a retro-AFC Central matchup.   Cleveland is no pushover anymore and Baker Mayfield's oblique condemnation of former Browns coach Hue Douglas after the win at Cincinnati has earned a lot of positive feedback, so expect a bitterly-fought affair here.


Bills over Dolphins -  Buffalo has now won two straight, Josh Allen is now 3-3 as starter, and the Dolphins have lost six of their last eight even with Ryan Tannehill.   Buffalo thus seems to have some momentum coming into Miami.


Bears over NY Giants  - Another week, another Giant collapse, and now the Matt & Mitchell Of The Midway come to the New Meadowlands.  Giants now look to play out what's left of another lost season.


Panthers over Buccaneers - A missed FGA vs Seattle will gnaw at the Panthers as they go to Tampa Bay and look to regain momentum, this against a schizophrenic Bucs team that's 3-2 at home vs Carolina's 1-4 road record.


Falcons over Ravens - This is a tricky pick with the Falcons' playoff chances gone and those of the Ravens still in play, but Lamar Jackson's rawness as a quarterback has been on display in his two wins as starter; his completion percentage was good, but he again ran more than is wise and just 25 passes (14 completions) and a passer rating below 60 are a bad start as a quarterback as they get a Falcons team that's 3-3 at home but who may be in line for some coaching staff changes after the season.


Packers over Cardinals -  The season has become a train wreck for the Cardinals, this even amid the increasingly open dysfunction that is the Packers - and for which the inept Aaron Rodgers still is not getting much blame.   Pick the home team of a bad matchup.

Colts over Jaguars - Speaking of train wrecks, the Jaguars benched Blake Bortles, fired their offensive coordinator, and are now on a seven-game losing streak - and are minus Leonard Fournette after his brawl in the loss at Buffalo.   The Colts continue their surge in this one.


Broncos over Bengals -   First a bad loss to the Browns, now Andy Dalton is out for the season.   The upshot is new starter Jeff Driskel played respectably in trying to lead a comeback so a Bengals offense in need of spark may get some - this amid the bizarre story that coach Marvin Lewis will retire to the Bengals front office and ex-Browns washout Hue Jackson - he of the media tour refusing to be accountable for his disastrous time in Cleveland, he of the belligerently hands-off approach to coaching as displayed on Hard Knocks - would become the new Bengals head coach.   The Broncos nonetheless come in with momentum and the playoffs to play for.


Rams over Lions  -  The Lions now have nothing beyond salvaging wins to play for, but the Rams have a surging season to run to the potential NFC Championship matchup.


Chiefs over Raiders -  We knew Jon Gruden's first year back would be a struggle, but we may have underestimated how much struggle would be encountered.   Certainly nothing Gruden has done warrants confidence going forward, though getting more of "his guys" into the Raiders is needed before one can judge his program a flop.   His latest issue is a surging Chiefs team coming off a bitter loss in the highest-scoring Monday Night game ever - a game that illustrated a disturbing commonality to Andy Reid quarterbacks, a propensity to freelance and rely on athleticism and arm strength rather than smarter play.   Patrick Mahomes' rookie surge nonetheless should produce another win here.


Titans over NY Jets -  The Titans realistically are out of the playoffs and can only salvage a winning record for the season, and they get a home date with the inept New York Jets to begin their stretch run followed by the Jaguars, NY Giants, and Redskins before a rematch with the Colts.   The Jets meanwhile get Buffalo, Houston, Green Bay, and the Patriots, and a potential 4-12 season.

The most historic meeting between the Patriots and Vikings remains 1994's comeback stunner in the first year of Robert Kraft's ownership of what had once been considered the laughingstock of football; 2018 marks Kraft's 25th season as team owner and laughingstock has been replaced with controller of the game

Patriots over Vikings - The Patriots reacted to the rout at Tennessee by getting back to basics and emphasizing a mixture of running the ball with spreading out the passes more.   They now get a Vikings team that's a playoff contender but whose weakness lays in quarterback Kirk Cousins, always a tease but never one who delivers when it matters most.


Seahawks over 49ers -   Suddenly all the momentum for Nick Mullens is gone with four INTs in his last two starts and the Seahawks now beginning to build momentum with two straight wins and six of their last nine; they've also scored at least 27 points in five of their last six games.


Chargers over Steelers  -  The Steelers look in trouble with back-to-back bad performances - and seemingly increasing blame-assignation by Ben Roethlisberger for poor performances -  and now they get a Chargers team that rebounded from a bitter loss to the Broncos with a 45-point slaughter of the Cardinals highlighted by Philip Rivers' league-record streak of completions in a single game; the irony is it was the first time since putting up 38 vs the Browns that San Diego exceeded 25 points scored.   The Steelers' problems of late actually showed signs in their inability to score more than 23 points in three of their last four games and seven turnovers in their last two.


Eagles over Redskins -  While not the Superbowl power they were last season the Eagles ended their recent skid and did so with a remarkable comeback, and now they get a Redskins team that's lost its last two games and three of the last four.



So does the final five-week stretch begin.

Thanks For Nothing Week Starring Aaron Rodgers

The NFL enters Thanksgiving weekend and there was no shortage of turkeys exposed as such by the end of the Monday Night affair.

Aaron Rodgers failed to deliver yet again as the Seahawks ended a three-game slump vs. the sinking (now 4-5-1) Packers.   Rodgers' poor fourth quarter performances have been known for most of this decade, and his losses to New England and Seattle have become especially illustrative of Rodgers' fundamental weakness as a quarterback - against New England he completed just two passes in the fourth quarter while his final five drives against the Seahawks produced one field goal - lowlighted by Rodgers' pathetic claim that the ball stuck in his hands at the end. 

And yet one is hard-pressed to find any significant mainstream criticism of him - the blame goes more to coach Mike McCarthy, who certainly has proven a subpar coach, but the biggest issue with the Packers is Rodgers.

A curious subplot is the rumor that the Packers want to hire Josh McDaniels as their new head coach - an unlikely scenario given McDaniels returned to New England at the last minute for a reason that would not seem to lend itself to going to Green Bay - especially given Rodgers' seeming refusal to take coaching.


********

Even bigger turkeys were the results for........

- The Titans , 38-10 losers at Indianapolis and Marcus Mariota knocked out with another elbow issue; so continues Andrew Luck's career-long win streak against Tennessee and the Colts are now second in the AFC South though two games behind Houston after the Texans' second-straight escape job off a missed FGA, this one at the Redskins.

- The Falcons, losers to the Cowboys and all but done for any playoff hope.

- The Eagles, shot to pieces by the Saints putting the Super in Superdome.

- The Panthers, falling short at Detroit on a missed two-point try and thus not advancing forward as a team.

- The Chargers, losers to the slumping Broncos and thus helping Vance Joseph potentially save his job and thus failing again to advance to the next level, never reached in Philip Rivers' career; making it worse was the loss of defensive tackle Corey Liuget for the season.

- The Cardinals, with another Josh Allen game falling short, this time to the going-nowhere Raiders.

- The Jaguars, up 16-0 to a Steelers team exposed by them - and then losing on a final-seconds touchdown run by Ben "Mister Interception" Roethlisberger.

- The Bengals, losing to rookie Lamar Jackson who had almost fewer passing yards (150) than rushing yards (117) - a bad sign for a quarterback.

- The Buccaneers, their quarterback controversy only getting worse in a bitter 38-35 loss at the Giants.

- The Vikings, as Kirk Cousins got exposed by the Bears.

So with that we look toward Thanksgiving weekend -

Bears over Lions - The Bears have a lot of momentum this side of New Orleans and LA and the Lions simply cannot generate enough offense or make enough stops; Matt Patricia's first year is the kind of rough initiation common throughout history.

Cowboys over Redskins - Speaking of momentum, the Cowboys now have some and the Redskins have to go forward without Alex Smith; we doubt they can.

Saints over Falcons - Atlanta in essence lost the season in the last two games.

Eagles over NY Giants - The slumping Eagles have long controlled the Giants good bad or indifferent. The Giants come in with some momentum, especially from Saquan Barkley, so expect a tighter than usual contest.


Jaguars over Bills -   The Jaguars blew it and may trade loudmouth Jalen Ramsey after the season.   They go to Buffalo, itself in worse shape in yet another lost season.


Browns over Bengals - Whatever momentum the Bengals had earlier this season is gone, and the Browns come in with a sense of momentum, despite the team's foolish idea to interview Condoleeza Rice for the head coach job.


Patriots over NY Jets - The loss to the Titans caused a lot of ridiculous second-guessing in New England media and fan circles, and while there is definite need for improved play all around, the Patriots have proven the best team in the league at responding to such setbacks.   They get their first game against a Jets team that's in the bottom third on both sides of the ball and whose star of the future may no longer have much future.


Raiders over Ravens - The Raiders ground out a needed win over the hapless Cardinals and now they get another rookie quarterback and Lamar Jackson.  His debut was decent and led the Ravens to a win over a Bengals team they've struggled against.   But having just 150 yards in the air and 117 rushing is not a good balance for a quarterback.   The Raiders have had recent successes against the Ravens even though they're not in much shape for any contention.


Buccanners over Forty-Niners -  Nick Mullens presently leads the Niners in yards per pass and his superb effort in his debut hasn't been forgotten.   The Niners travel across country to a schizophrenic Bucs team that's 3-7, dead last in points allowed, eighth in scoring, and can't get any positive momentum out of either of the two quarterbacks involved.   Jameis Winston remains a weaker quarterback than Ryan Fitzpatrick, yet against the Giants threw for 199 yards and two scores replacing Fitzpatrick after he threw three picks.   The Bucs in putting up 35 points last week may have some momentum going into this one.


Panthers over Seahawks - Losing at Detroit on a missed two-point try is the kind of galling loss no team accepts, and the Panthers get a Seahawks team that's been better on the road than it has been over the years but isn't all that good this season overall. 


Chargers over Cardinals - San Diego is no doubt red-faced at losing to the Broncos, and the hapless Cardinals come to LA still unable to establish any momentum.


Dolphins over Colts -  Andrew Luck is unbeaten to the Tennessee Titans after last week's massacre but his record against AFC East teams is dismal, and the Dolphins have shown enough to be considered a 10-6 team.


Steelers over Broncos -  A much-needed Denver win last week won't be enough against a Steelers team that's not as good as advertised but is still stronger than most.


Vikings over Packers - It's another road game which means Green Bay is in trouble, plus the Vikings are coming off a bad loss to the Bears, which means they'll want to smash the next opponent.   

Texans over Titans - Mixed on this one because the Titans lost Marcus Mariota earlier this season then responded by beating the Texans and the Titans have been sneakily resilient despite being down multiple starters, plus Houston's last two wins were outright escape jobs, a sign they're losing momentum in their lengthening winning streak.   But one is hesitant to trust Blaine Gabbert if he in fact plays and Mariota is banged up again if he plays.   Plus Deshaun Watson is the real deal.   If nothing else this game could be a nailbiter.



Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.

2018 Playoff Push Now On

The NFL hits Week Eleven and now the playoff push begins.

The Tennessee Titans took a huge playoff step by routing the Patriots.   The game showcased how strong Mike Vrabel is as head coach and also showcased his team is better than generally given credit for - much was made of the team's low volume stats on offense, ignoring situational execution has been stout; the volume stats argument has also gone out the window with solid point production the last three games and Marcus Mariota's five games above 90 in passer rating - and above 118 the last two games.

The Titans were crushed at the line of scrimmage in the 2017 playoff game and thus made a point not to let that be repeated.   Vrabel also worked to take away Tom Brady's first read, which illustrated a periodic failing of Brady - his stubbornness in latching onto a binky receiver instead of opening to other pass-catchers; more than a few times Chris Hogan (held without a target for now three straight games) was open and Brady refused to throw to him, instead forcing to Julian Edelman and now his newest binky Josh Gordon. (1)  

Such issues are correctable for the Patriots and this match may portend a playoff showdown between the two.

Seahawks over Packers - The Dolphins proved less than expected at Green Bay, but the Packers remain a mediocre outfit still looking for its first road win.   We doubt they'll get it at Seattle, now in must-win mode after a bitter loss at LA.

Steelers over Jaguars -  The collapse of the Jaguars has been stunning, this even as Leonard Fournette has returned.   The Jaguars offense showed noticeable improvement with his return but they face an uphill effort against a surging Steelers team that put up 52 against a better Panthers outfit.

NY Giants over Buccaneers -  Ugh.   Two terrible teams.   Pick the home team.

Bengals over Ravens -  The Bengals fired their defensive coordinator and former Browns flameout Hue Jackson, successful as Bengals offensive coordinator in 2014-15, is returning to work with Marvin Lewis.   The Ravens meanwhile are reported to be done with John Harbaugh after this season.  The Ravens thus enter the second half of the season as a lameduck outfit that has long struggled against Andy Dalton, no doubt wanting to smash the Ravens after being humiliated by the Saints.

Cowboys over Falcons -  Both teams are enigmas - what are you going to get here?   Atlanta's embarrassment by the Browns and Dallas' stunner at Philly leaves one scratching his head.   The Cowboys may have some momentum here.   A coaching staff area to keep an eye on is the Falcons' offensive staff as two years of Steve Sarkisian has been strikingly inconsistent and hasn't seemed to improve,


Panthers over Lions -  The Lions have lost twice at home in four games and lost three straight overall, and get a Panthers squad no doubt angry at getting crushed by Pittsburgh.   There right now is no evidence of improvement as the season under first-year coach Matt Patricia progresses - this has been especially graphic in the 55 points scored in Detroit's last three games, just 18 per game vs the 30-plus scored against Green Bay and Miami.


Texans over Redskins - The Redskins are better than expected, but the Texans once again evoke the memory of the Oilers at their apex in six straight wins, 26 points per game in that stretch, and plus-four in turnover differential.  Deshaun Watson has quietly broken 100 in passer rating this season vs Alex Smith's still-respectable 90. 

Colts over Titans - Andrew Luck has yet to lose to the Titans and the Colts have won three straight, are plus-three in turnover differential, and have averaged 33 points scored per game for six straight, so overcoming that hurtle is next on Tennessee's list.   Colt-Titan games have usually been bitterly-fought affairs, and 2017's matches saw the Titans erase two-score deficits both times, so expect fireworks here.


Raiders over Cardinals -  Two cellar-dwellars.   The Raiders' only edge is Derek Carr is more trustworthy a quarterback with a 93 passer rating vs Josh Rosen's 67.

Chargers over Broncos - San Diego is almost a lock for a wildcard spot and they get a slumping Broncos squad reportedly ready to fire their head coach.


Saints over Eagles -    The Eagles are now in trouble after a surprising loss to the Cowboys as they travel to the red-hot Superdome.   Can anyone keep up with the Saints?   Right now we doubt it.


Bears over Vikings -   The Bears are one of the most-improved teams in the league and they host the Vikings, a showdown for the NFC North.   Kirk Cousins and Mitch Trubisky have combined for 36 touchdowns; the Bears have the edge in points, points allowed, and turnover differential, and have won three straight while the Vikings have won four of their last five.


Chiefs over Rams -  These are two of the three superpowered offenses of the league; the edge the Chiefs enjoy is Patrick Mahomes looks more explosive and has had to play from behind a little more than Jared Goff.  Expect the combined score to exceed 70 in this game.

NFL Gets Bo Dereked In Week Ten

So the NFL hits Week Ten and the playoff race now is underway.

First we look back at New England's win over Green Bay.   This game demonstrated not only that Tom Brady is the better quarterback, it showed how overrated Aaron Rodgers really is.   He completed just two passes in the fourth quarter, a 7-yarder to Aaron Jones and an 8-yarder to Devante Adams, and was sacked twice while running twice for eight yards.   Rodgers' reputation for being a frontrunner and not a true great continues - he is now 7-36 when trailing by at least two scores, and Brady as usual played better vs. Rodgers playing worse as the game went on.

A key aspect of this disparity has been addressed in a few circles where it is noted Rodgers seems always to sits alone on the bench without conversation with any coaches - as though he's made up his mind how to play the game without wanting input from others.

Also noteworthy was the Houston Texans' escape job in Denver on a missed field goal, the ultimate heartbreaker for Case Keenum and also, despite comments to the contrary by John Elway, perhaps the deathknell for coach Vance Joseph as both the surging Texans and slumping Broncos enter their Bye week

Marcus Mariota delivered Tennessee's first win since Week Four by overcoming two early turnovers to pass for 243 yards, two scores, and a passer rating of 119 - his fifth game of 80 or higher this year, four of them 90 or higher.   Dak Prescott meanwhile continues to regress.


Panthers over Steelers - Both teams won last week and both are looking to surge, but Carolina has shown the greater overall improvement of the two.

Saints over Bengals - The Saints and Drew Brees keep storming forward, and now get an inconsistent Bengals squad that nonetheless has won four of the last five meetings with the Saints including 2014's game vs Brees.   Defensively neither team is all that good, both in the bottom-two in passing yardage allowed while the Saints unnoticed lead the league in fewest rushing yards allowed.   Where the Bengals have an edge is turnover differential at plus-4 vs. New Orleans at zero.


Patriots over Titans -  The last seven meetings between these two teams have all been Patriots wins - they met twice in 2003 and both games - 38-30 in Week Five and 17-14 in the Divisional Playoffs - were competitively compelling affairs; Steve McNair's bomb in the playoff bounced off Drew Bennett's fingers, thus ending that game.    Vince Young put up a fight in 2006 and the Patriots led only 26-23 before putting that game away 40-23, but since then the games have been grossly one-sided; only 2017's playoff match was even moderately competitive as Marcus Mariota clawed to a 7-0 lead before the Patriots put the game away.

This history thus augurs against the Titans, who've nonetheless shown real fight under first-year coach and former Patriots linebacker/part-time tight end Mike Vrabel, notably in the Monday Nighter at Dallas. 


Colts over Jaguars -  The Colts have now won two straight and get a Jaguars team that has lost four straight and where discipline appears to have disappeared - a shocking regression for any Tom Coughlin team either as a coach or a GM.   The faltering of Blake Bortles raises doubts about his viability going forward.


Chiefs over Cardinals -  The Chiefs keep on winning and look more like the Vikings of twenty years ago with each passing win. 


Buccaneers over Redskins -  The Bucs hung tough vs the Panthers last week but it wasn't enough; now they get a Redskins team humiliated by the Falcons last week; we doubt the Bucs will finish with a winning record but they can start salvaging something.   What is clear is Jameis Winston is done in Tampa Bay with a now-proven inability to make good decisions.


Bears over Lions -   Matthew Stafford was sacked ten times last week and thus does offensive line trouble add to a season threatening to fall to 6-10 or maybe worse in Matt Patricia's first year.   In just about every aspect - turnover differential, points scored, points allowed - the Bears are well ahead of the Lions, making Patricia's debut season the kind of rough "welcome to the NFL moment" that's so common.


Falcons over Browns -  The first game for interim coach Gregg Williams was competitive for only the first half, and now the Browns get a Falcons team that got a needed rout last week.   Momentum hasn't arrived for the Browns and we doubt it will begin this week.


Jets over Bills - Buffalo's quarterback situation has become a disaster and 2-14 now looks likely; this week they get a struggling Jets squad; calls to bench rookie Sam Darnold make no sense as he has to weather through the entire season first. 

The first jaw-dropper of Week 9 was the spectacular debut of second-year player and practice-squad callup Nick Mullins  


Chargers over Raiders -  The other jaw-dropper of the Niners-Raiders game was how abysmal the Raiders were with terrible play from Derek Carr and the popular belief that the Raiders players have quit on coach Jon Gruden; even belief that the Raiders will buy out his $100 million contract has circulated.    With the Chargers coming off a tighter-than-expected win at Seattle it won't get any better for the beleagured Raiders, perhaps the biggest disappointment of the season.


Rams over Seahawks -  The Seahawks are clearly no longer a playoff threat and they visit LA with the Rams smarting over a bitter loss at New Orleans. 


Dolphins over Packers - The Packers got exposed as a team that lacks toughness; they were looking to avoid contact on both sides of the ball for a striking amount of the game at Foxboro.  Now they host a Dolphins team that pulled a surprise in beating the Jets despite missing Ryan Tannehill and are an unnoticed 5-4 with a plus-five turnover differential vs. Green Bay's minus-one.    Aaron Rodgers has regressed back into the sloppy freelancing quarterback after being forced to play Bradyball in Week One vs the Bears. 


Eagles over Cowboys - The Eagles are struggling at 4-4 and coming off their bye week, but they get a mediocre Cowboys squad whose coach has been overdue for replacement despite Jerry Jones' inability to admit a guy he trained isn't capable.


49ers over Giants -   The collapse of the NY Giants continues.  We expect Nick Mullins to keep on keeping on vs the inept Giants.



Ten becomes Week Ten this weekend.

Week Nine To The Nines

Cincinnati raced to a big lead but when the Bucs changed quarterbacks they rallied to force a late Bengals game-winning drive; the game raised more questions about the future of Jameis Winston, benched after four INTs




The NFL reaches Week Nine, and with six teams on byes, pickings get somewhat slim.



Raiders over 49ers -   The question here is - will C.J Beathard play given a wrist issue?  He's listed as probable, but assuming he plays he hasn't proven he can handle the NFL game.   The Raiders meanwhile are still striving for some kind of momentum to win.


Vikings over Lions - Remember Detroit's three-game streak over the Vikings?  That seems like Barry Sanders-level history right now.   The Lions are 3-4 and haven't forced a turnover in two straight games, while the Vikings have something in common with the Lions in they're both coming off ugly losses.   Kirk Cousins didn't cover himself in glory last week and one wonders if he gets back the fire he showed earlier this year.


Falcons over Redskins -   This is a bit of a tricky pick given the mediocrity of the Falcons at 3-4 vs the 5-2 Redskins, but while I don't like how the Falcons are playing right now I'm not sold on the Redskins as much as I like Alex Smith as a quarterback.


Panthers over Buccaneers - This may erupt in points with the return of Ryan Fitzpatrick as Bucs starter and the Panthers winners of three of their last four with over 30 points in three games this season and the 17-point comeback vs the Eagles still fresh in memory.


NY Jets over Dolphins -  Losers of four of their last five, the Dolphins also may be stuck with Brock Osweiler for awhile with Ryan Tannehill questionable.   The Dolphins are also giving up 7.9 yards per pass, which may help a struggling Sam Darnold, stuck at 55% completion and who has led the Jets to a combined 27 points in the last two games


Ravens over Steelers -  The Ravens are still smarting over losing three of their last four and get a Steelers team they manhandled earlier this year.   The Steelers have rallied with three straight wins, but those have come against two teams they dominate (Cleveland and Cincinnati) and a mediocre Atlanta squad.


Bears over Bills - The collapse of the Bills continues and the Bears come in needing a win to continue gaining momentum with games against the Vikings and other quality teams looming.


Chiefs over Browns -  This will be a fascinating matchup with the surging Chiefs taking on a Browns team that fired its head coach and offensive coordinator - it's a wonder they kept Hue Jackson after his embarrassing hands-off/analytics philosophy expressed on Hard Knocks and resultant underachievement.   The Browns have shown genuine talent and moxie this season, so we don't expect any pushover for the Chiefs.


Texans over Broncos -   Houston has evolved from their 0-3 start to now look again like the Warren Moon Oilers, especially in putting up 42 points against a Dolphins team that hung tougher longer than expected going in.   It seems clear Deshaun Watson is healthier now and that's great news for the Texans facing a 3-5 Broncos team unable to regain the momentum of their first two weeks.


Chargers over Seahawks - San Diego is 5-2 vs a 4-3 Seattle squad that is 1-1 vs. the Chargers in the Pete Carroll period.    The Chargers have yet to beat a team with a winning record this season, but then neither have the Seahawks.   The resurgence of the Chargers has been amazing and stands in contrast to a perceived shakiness in Pete Carroll's program.


Rams over Saints -  This is the clash most looked forward to, as the Rams edged out the Saints in a lowish-scoring affair in 2017 at the Coliseum.   The potential big difference is the Saints are 23rd in fewest points allowed, but the way offenses have erupted of late I'm doubtful they won't score much against the Rams.   The Saints also have an edge in run defense, leading the league in fewest rushing yards per game (and a paltry 3.2 yards per carry allowed) as they take on the Rams' league-leading ground attack.


Patriots over Packers -  The Packers come off a bitter loss at the Rams and come in 0-3 on the road.   Aaron Rodgers comes in with the three-score comeback against the Bears - only the seventh such comeback from down at least two scores in his career -  a distant memory now and looking more like the old off-the-back-foot Aaron Rodgers vs. the one who for the first (and seemingly last) time had to play Brady Ball in the win over the Bears.   The Patriots defense looks shaky but is ahead of the Packers in points allowed, plus the Patriots offense should show up better after playing down to the subpar Bills - an annoying habit permeating the Belichick era of playing up to good teams and down to bad ones.  


Titans over Cowboys -  The Titans come off their bye and off a bitter loss to the Chargers on a missed two-point conversion.   The stats don't look good for the Titans, but the situational execution looks a lot better, as Tennessee has been in every game except the embarrassment against the Ravens, and have wins over Houston and Philadelphia, both at .500 or better.   The Cowboys come in as a rollercoaster - loss, win, loss, win, loss in overtime, win, loss - and no win over anyone with a winning or .500 record.   Jason Garrett's reputation as a sham coach/bobo of Jerry Jones isn't being dissuaded, and stands in contrast to the strong beginning for first-year Titans coach Mike Vrabel.  




Happy post-Halloween.