NASCAR Short Track Myopia And Schedule Puzzlement

NASCAR's first Winston Cup weekend hit Martinsville and soon after the 2020 schedule was released to great fanfare and a lot of wild speculation, some of which turned out to be true. 


First up is the Virginia 500 weekend.   Brad Keselowski annihilated the field for his second win of the season and Chase Elliott wound up second, the best finish so far for Chevrolet.   But two issues rose above everything else - first was the dismal effort by Jimmie Johnson, and more than a few analysts noticed how badly he ran, with the inevitable speculation about what's wrong.

The other big picture story was that the writers suddenly noticed that aero matters on short tracks.   The gripe was the bigger spoiler was somehow creating aeropush, but that's false.   Aeropush was always there and the bigger spoiler allowed the drivers to blast through the corners more strongly.  It wasn't harder to pass in this Martinsville than it was with low downforce; actually the opposite was the case - lower downforce made passing harder. 

That aero was suddenly noticed at Martinsville shows how ignorant of history a lot of people seem to be.   Bobby Hamilton in the 1990s was the first to articulate that aeropush was and is a short track issue.   And the aero rake on short track cars - especially dirt cars - long ago proved aero is more, not less, important on short tracks - pavement late models look more like superspeedway cars than modern superspeedway cars look. 

People need to give up this myth of "making the cars less dependent on aero."  Because that's all it's ever been - "less dependent on aero" is a myth, through and through. 


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The other story two days later was the unveiling of the 2020 Winston Cup schedule.   Social media had some ridiculous speculation that some tracks would lose dates in favor of unimpressive locales like Villenueve Circuit, Mosport, Iowa Speedway, even Indy Raceway Park.   That didn't happen as any sensible analysis could have predicted. Also not happening is elimination of the playoff format, the source of a pre-Martinsville rumor.

What did happen though led to expected puzzlement.   The most bizarre is Pocono Raceway has to stack both of its Winston Cup dates into just one weekend - late June.   Back to back 400 milers (they should be 500 milers) in two days compresses into too tight a window for teams with inevitable attrition, bringing back memory of the track's 1969 birth where it ran short track races on its now-defunct 3/4-mile interior oval and its ration of entries was always cut because of attrition at other tracks running the night before.   Plus it is just one weekend, a revenue-generation reduction by any measure.   No Steve O'Donnell (his presser transcript here), crushing two big races into one weekend isn't "terrific for the fans."

The bizarre move - the only such doubleheader - appears forced because NBC is airing the Summer Olympics in 2020 in July and August that year - which brings to mind the sport should not have constricted itself to two networks but instead should be getting four or five with CBS, TNT, etc. being brought in.   It also leaves one wondering if this is thus a one-off experiment, one the sport really doesn't need.


The other changes are moving the Brickyard 400 to July 4 and the Firecracker 400 at Daytona at the end of August.   One struggles to see what need ever arose for such changes, and Steve O'Donnell dressed Daytona's move in terms of NASCAR's misbegotten playoff format, since the Firecracker 400 is now the "regular season" finale and the Southern 500 kicks off the playoffs. 

Darlington, Richmond, Bristol, Vegas, Talladega, Charlotte's stupid roval, Kansas, Texas, the Old Dominion 500 in November instead of September, and then Phoenix are the playoff races.   This even though the playoff concept has never worked - indeed the fact of a rumor circulating to the effect of ending the experiment indicates there is understanding in the racing industry the playoff format has not worked despite NASCAR's stubborn insistence on shoving it down our throats. 


In all the new schedule is "fixing" what had no need for a makeover.   If NASCAR thinks this will spur renewed interest they're kidding themselves. 

Overhyping Of Short Tracks Hits Again In Finale Of 2018

Talladega's October weekend was a tale of two radically different races.   The Truck 250 was a highly-competitive affair with some very aggressive push-drafting and a last-lap crash; when it was over Timothy Peters grabbed the win, his first since 2015 and first in Maury Gallagher's Chevrolets.

The slicing and dicing in the Truck 250 stood in surprising contrast to the Diehard 500 where the Stewart-Haas Racing Fords lined up together and displayed a power like race sponsor One Thousand Bulbs  - an online lighting retailer.  The SHR Fords refused to race each other, playing the team-order game to a strikingly effective - and controversial - degree.

But it's been the subsequent Old Dominion 500 weekend that's caused recent excitement.   Martinsville had the usual incidence of crashes - including a pit road gaffe by Clint Bowyer with William Byron -  as Joey Logano led some 300 laps before late-race pit shuffling put Logano back in the lead.

But it was Martin Truex who tried to steal the show - and wound up getting the win stolen on him.   Truex was livid at Logano afterward, and he arguably has a case for anger - he raced Logano clean (something too many racers seem to have forgotten how to execute) and Logano swerved him.

The Old Dominion 500 finish brought back memory of Logano's introduction to national racing and the 2009 Toyota Showdown at Irwindale Speedway.


The buffoonery at Martinsville marred what was developing into a memorable finish regardless of outcome, and the action brought yet more social and regular-media hype about how good short track racing is.   NBC analyst Jeff Burton - a winner at Martinsville in 1997 in a good clean nose-to-nose dice with Bobby Hamilton - stated on his Twitter account that "the combination of a short track and the Playoffs.....(meant) these drivers are under more pressure to perform than ever before."

Which leads, though, to the obvious - so where, Jeff, are the 35 lead changes?  The track has broken 30 official lead changes three times this decade and even such races at Burton's 1997 win, Hamilton's subsequent 1998 win, John Andretti's 1999 win, to name three, were genuinely competitive affairs even though they didn't reach that level, so Martinsville has unquestionably been a legitimately competitive track. 

Yet the hype for "more short tracks" after such races continues the deplorable approach of pitting speedways against each other and sells short tracks as more than what they are.  

It is illustrated most graphically in Dave Moody's postrace blog posting, a piece worth a response.


Moody is flat wrong about why the speedway building boom of 1996 onward favored 1.5-mile tracks - that design was chosen because it was large enough for 100,000-plus seating and luxury boxes, small enough to avoid the criticism that "we can't see the whole track," and was a competition model that had delivered quality racing.

As shown in the 1997 Vegas BGN 300, the 1.5 milers are fundamentally sound as a competition venue.  

Atlanta became a very competitive race for four seasons 1999-2003 as a quad-oval.

Moody's assertion that "Over the last five to seven years the best racing in NASCAR has invariably been found on the short tracks and the road courses," is also not true.   The best racing in the decade by far has been on the restrictor plate tracks.   Pocono has also seen some strikingly physical racing, notably the crash-torn 2010 season.   And the most celebrated Winston Cup race of this span remains Fontana in 2013.  That doesn't mean there haven't been memorable short track races in that span; it means the maligned bigger tracks have delivered as well.

An irony is the collapse of popularity of Bristol, which altered its corners to where by 2010 there was sustained side by side racing up front as had been the case there in 1989-91 - racing that was notably cleaner than the one-groove demo derbies that permeated the track 1992-2009.   And fans began protesting against it - there was unavoidable verbiage to get Bristol back to the one-groove mess it had been.   Fickle fans, indeed.

The main gripe about bigger tracks is aeropush, which ignores where aeropush began - at Martinsville.   Bobby Hamilton following the 1996 Old Dominion 500 stated there was aerodynamic push in the cars in that race.   Short track aeropush has been reality as long as aeropush has existed, making utter nonsense of the indictment of bigger tracks.

Related is the common claim that on short tracks "aero doesn't matter."   Any casual look at Late Models shows this statement is laughable - Late Models look more like superspeedway cars than today's superspeedway cars do.   And back in the day the aerodynamic rake of Richard Petty's mid-80s Pontiacs was compared to the aero rake of dirt cars.


Moody claims fans are "voting with their wallets and credit cards."   Are they?   The short tracks NASCAR has haven't sold any better than superspeedways; Bristol in particular posted a very solid crowd in its recent Volunteer 500 but some of its recent Southeastern 500 crowds have been shockingly nonexistent.   And this recent Martinsville race was anything but sold out - which led to a Twitter rant during the Truck 250 there that fans who claim to want more short tracks need to come out and actually support the short tracks.

Moody indicts several races like the Brickyard Xfinity 250 in advocating returning the Xfinity series to Indy Raceway Park.   The phase-in of the NA18D draft duct package in that race in its last two runnings makes complete nonsense of dropping the Brickyard in favor of a forgettable bullring.   No IRP race ever measured up to the 2017-18 Brickyard 250s in competitive excellence.

The same is true of the Truck Series, whose big track races have been competitive to a level its 1995-2000 run primarily on short tracks never was.   Moody uses the cliché "return to its roots."  The cliché in blunt fact means "drag the sport back to the farm" - regression.

Moody also repeats the claim that the schedules will be shaken up after 2020 when the present set of sanctioning agreements expires.   The claim has never held up credibly because of a complete lack of logic - the sport is going to drop races on big tracks in good markets in favor of bullrings in weak markets?   Often advocated is moving Cup dates to Iowa Speedway - a track owned by NASCAR and which would already have gotten Cup dates if the concept was in any way credible.

"The excitement generated by the Charlotte Roval and Martinsville in recent weeks is difficult to ignore."   The superior racing in the Talladega Truck 250 is also difficult to ignore.  The excellent racing generated by the coming NA18D package is also difficult to ignore.   NASCAR needs to field the most competitive racing the sport can get, and the objective reality is it is not a case for more short tracks.

Martinsville And Popularity Decline

The 2016 Virginia 500 was contested at Martinsville Speedway and Kyle Busch led over 350 laps in an oddly tranquil 500-lapper, this after he won the Truck 250 that saw some twelve yellows. Kyle Busch's win did not produce much in the way of widespread attention paid to the race - the Sports Media Watch site reported the race's ratings declined yet again, a pattern for NASCAR in this season as well as recent seasons past.

Some blame was laid on the fact the race was telecast on FOX Sports' primary cable outlet FS1 - the former Speed TV - but with the proliferation of cable channels the allegation that a substantial percentage of fans did not have access to the race does not strike one as plausible.

The sport's popularity decline has been a long time coming and turning it around will be a long time coming - and it requires greater honesty on the part of NASCAR and its varied participants.  The competition level is not sufficient.   Though the low downforce rule package is promoted every race - Tom Jensen's after-action piece on the FOX Sports website repeats the lobby - the blunt truth remains it is not working and will not work.   For all the praise drivers have for how the cars feel the reality has shown in blown tires, aeropush, a one-lane surface for Martinsville, and no improvement in lead changes - this package is merely a repeat of the same mistakes NASCAR has kept making for nearly twenty years.


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For all that the Martinsville race did offer some interesting takes.   Kyle Busch's win was typical and as such eminently forgettable even with a pathetic rumpswab of a puff piece by Nate Ryan on the NBC Sports NASCAR page.    Just behind him, though, we saw some encouraging finishes by A.J. Allmendinger, Austin Dillon, and Kyle Larson.   Whether they can sustain these finishes remains to be seen given the lack of follow-up from them in the past.   Allmendinger has shown from his debut in Richard Petty's car in 2009 that he has the fight - he fights to get to the front, something not that many drivers do.    Dillon and Larson have been much-touted young guns who haven't advanced in the sport to this point; more finishes like this and maybe then the potential seen in them will finally mean wins - and first-time winners is something the sport hasn't seen in nearly two years now.

Dillon's RCR teammate Paul Menard led ten laps, surprising given he's never given reason for expectations to be all that hot, and finished in the top-ten.

It was a typical Kevin Harvick race - he led with some authority and wasn't around to make a win out of it - he didn't even finish in the top ten.   The same was true for another Martinsville race for Matt Kenseth.

It wasn't much to cheer about for Ryan Blaney or Chase Elliott, the two rookies producing a mediocre effort and finishing at the bottom of the second ten. 

Greg Biffle hasn't had anything to cheer about for awhile now, and 12th at Martinsville merely illustrated how poorly the Roush fleet is running right now with no sign of a turnaround.


So it goes with Texas and then a two-week short track surge before the Winston 500 at Talladega coming up.  

From Martinsville To Texas

Something is going on here.

The Virginia 500 at Martinsville saw several eye-opening angles - the sixth straight winner in Winston Cup, a redemption win for Kurt Busch - his first in Winston Cup since the 2011 Delaware 400 and first in any race since the 2012 Firecracker 250 in the Busch Series - memorable efforts by AJ Allmendinger and Kyle Larson, and heartwarming efforts by Richard Petty's team in the wake of the passing of matriarch Lynda Petty.  

With all that we head next to Texas Motor Speedway, and there are several angles worth touching on entering the 2014 Alamo 500 -



** To begin with we have the issue of tires at Fontana and criticism by Jeff Gordon after Fontana and entering Texas.    The Fontana fiasco had numerous angles and Goodyear indeed warrants criticism - something too many in the sport go out of their way to avoid.   We also nonetheless saw some very good racing at Fontana and if Goodyear can fix some of the issues incurred at Fontana that can blunt some of the criticism.


** We also have seen a surprising upsurge in lead changes lately - Fontana and Martinsville combined for 68 lead changes - 33 is unheard-of for Martinsville - and it is exactly the kind of racing the sport needs to have; if anything the more lead changes the better, and one can actually believe more races will now break 40.   NASCAR gets and deserves a lot of criticism, but right now the competition package is working.


**A team that isn't getting much going right now is Joe Gibbs Racing.   Despite the win at Fontana, JGR has been decidedly mediocre to date in 2014.   Matt Kenseth has been the lead dog, posting top tens in the last two races.  

JGR's mediocre season is reflective of Toyota's increasingly-discouraging lack of competitive depth.   None of the other Toyotas are performing and the brand more and more needs to acquire more teams.


** Despite a poor finish, Kyle Larson is routing Austin Dillon in the rookie race, posting the runner-up at Fontana contrasting with one measely top-ten for Dillon; Dillon is living up to a reputation as the anti-intimidator, as his racing is passive and indifferent compared to the fight Larson shows.   The downside is it's not doing anything for Ganassi/SABCO teammate Jamie McMurray, who's looked a little lost this season.


** As Austin Dillon stumbles forward, the scariest part for RCR is Paul Menard, a guy with more sponsorship than talent, is leading the team in performance.   Suddenly this isn't looking like a promising year for the team.


** Richard Petty Motorsports usually pulls something decent out of Martinsville and here got both cars running strongly.   Though still subpar on the intermediates where they need to be good, the Petty team nonetheless is showing substantial improvement with new crew chief Trent Owens.   The pain of losing the matriarch won't go away; the determination to win looks like it won't, either.


** Suddenly Penske Racing doesn't look that good.   Joey Logano posted a solid finish and his status as the real top dog at Penske looks more and more solid; Brad Keselowski meanwhile crashed on pit road and was livid at Kurt Busch about it as he has plummeted from leading the points to seventh and has just one top-20 finish since winning at Vegas. 


** FOX Sports did a puff piece defending Danica Patrick by citing "baby steps" in improving finishes.   Martinsville was one of her better tracks last year, and she qualified tenth - then was never heard from again.   Whatever these numbers the piece cited are, they're not an accurate barometer of her success.


** Largely lost in the shuffle has been a very encouraging year for AJ Allmendinger, posting back-to-back top-11 finishes for Brad Daugherty's team.  


** Finally, Dale Junior leads the points standings.   Imagine the outcry if he loses the championship because of the Chase's repeated points reracks - actually it's easy to imagine that scenario since it's how the Chase concept has gone the whole time.



So it's off to Texas.

Martinsville Pick Six

The 2013 Virginia 500 has come and gone and six items are worth analyzing -


The "fall off" tire didn't make the racing better - much was made of Goodyear's tire that was meant to produce greater wear and thus "fall off" more. The argument was it would produce better racing and put it back into the drivers hands. Neither happened in the Cup race. Jimmie Johnson led 346 laps and was almost never challenged, even on late restarts. Drivers were talking about "You can't abuse the tires." It showed; they didn't try to abuse the tires and thus they didn't race particularly hard. Even with that Chad Knaus was still arguing for more abrasive tires claiming tracks with less tire wear "the racing is not as good, because the line selection is minimized."

It's also not much of an endorsement of the Generation Six racecar after some encouraging signs the previous three races.


Danica Patrick actually raced well - and yet it is damning of the quality of the racing that she was basically the only interesting competitive angle all day. Finishing 12th was shocking - by her own admission - and it was the only area all day where anything interesting was happening. Her Stewart-Haas teammates certainly didn't do anything all race; Ryan Newman in particular was embarrassing when he stopped to bring out a yellow and got a three-lap penalty as a result..


Joey Logano, no-show - He got into a scrape during practice and another during the race, but other than that NASCAR's newest "star" was MIA.


Yet another sign Kevin Harvick will drive for Stewart-Haas Racing - after Brian Vickers played bumper tag with Danica Patrick at the finish, Harvick spun him out. Patrick is presumably Harvick's teammate in 2014.


RCR is in serious trouble - 8th, 14th, and 24th in standings isn't particularly encouraging - of the organization's combined five top ten finishes three are the result of Paul Menard, who is assured of a fast fall from contention as the season goes on.   Keep an eye on the rumored switch to Dodge in 2014 for RCR and potentially two other teams, because it's obvious Chevrolet isn't keeping RCR in the fold.  


Which "name" driver will get the in-season axe first? - I'm going to guess Juan Montoya doesn't finish the season with the woeful Ganassi/Earnhardt squad. Clearly overrated when he signed with Ganassi's Dodge fleet in 2007, it's amazing he won two races, and despite a paucity of results - 51 top tens isn't bad but for the talent he ostensibly has it's pretty thin gruel - he's won $33 million in NASCAR.
 


And so with Martinsville out of the way the Cup series heads to Texas.