Premature NFL Predictions 2017

With the varied prediction magazines for the NFL now out and camps proceeding, the prediction game for the NFL never really stops, so we'll take our own premature crack at the prediction game.


* - win-loss predictions carry this caveat - there will be overlap, thus over-unders are added


AMERICAN FOOTBALL CONFERENCE


East

New England Patriots (14-2), take the over

One can't remember the last time a defending Superbowl champion was so heavily favored entering the ensuing season, but that's what the New England Patriots have been, to where rivals are now trash-talking that the league "has a Patriots problem."   Of course the league has a general AFC problem - the last twenty-two Lamar Hunt Trophies (and twelve Lombardi Trophies)  have gone to the Patriots, Steelers, Broncos, Titans, Ravens, Raiders, and Colts.   No matter how rivals change their schemes or personnel, the Patriots thwart the best-laid plans of mice and men.    The player to watch is Brandin Cooks, who appears to have already established rapport with Tom Brady in minicamp.   Keith Butler of the Steelers thinks sacking Brady a few times will ruin his game - ignoring teams have done this and Brady still comes back and wins.


Miami Dolphins (10-6)
Buffalo Bills (10-6), take the under
New York Jets (4-12), take the under

The Miami Dolphins have strikingly improved under first-year coach Adam Gase; with Ryan Tannehill healed up he needs to take the next step - something where there remains doubt with Buffalo's Tyrod Taylor, the key here being ex-Eagles and Panthers coordinator Sean McDermott bringing accountability and structure to a team that had little of either under freelancing players coach Rex Ryan.   Accountability and structure seemed to disappear with the NY Jets last season, and Todd Bowles is proving yet another coaching bust for a team that some railbirds think will tank the season a la the Colts in 2011 in order to grab expected blue-chip picks for 2018.   It seems clear quarterbacks Luke McCown, Bryce Petty, and Christian Hackenberg (by all scuttlebutt a failure with no drive) will be gone by the end of 2018.....if they even make it that far; Eric Decker (now with the Titans) and linebacker David Harris (now with the Patriots, who've lusted after him for ten years) got out while the getting was good.

Just how bad are the NY Jets? Their own fans want them to tank the season.





South

Tennessee Titans (11-5), take the over
Indianapolis Colts (10-6), take the under
Houston Texans (9-7), take the under
Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8)

The culture shift in the Tennessee Titans by now is obvious, and it's also clear Mike Mularkey is a real coach; it became obvious right away Marcus Mariota is the real deal at quarterback, and beating five playoff teams plus the defending champion Broncos in 2016 showcased that.   This is a program, not just a slapped-together assemblage, and it is showing it will be strong for quite some time.

Beating the Colts - something they shockingly haven't done since 2011 - remains the key for the Titans; the Colts fired Ryan Grigson and new GM Chris Ballard overhauled the roster; Andrew Luck is certainly very good, but one wonders if he really is as good as the Colts thought he was.   One also wonders if Chuck Pagano was the right choice over Bruce Arians.

The Texans have won the division twice under Bill O'Brien but he was supposed to help develop a quarterback and has failed to do so; the Brock Osweiler fiasco perhaps best illustrates the weaknesses of the Texans in general - the story is Osweiler was signed with zero input from O'Brien - and O'Brien in particular; Osweiler got exposed as a surly, perhaps self-entitled punk who couldn't handle more than two reads on the field, and yet he may have been the best quarterback O'Brien has had as Texans coach.   If O'Brien isn't in trouble by now, he should be; he'll presumably start Tom Savage early in 2017, but Clemson hero Deshaun Watson is the guy everyone will be watching. 

The Jaguars meanwhile needed to get former coach Tom Coughlin to take over their front office and discipline returned after the failure of another players coach in Gus Bradley.  One wonders if they now can get better play out of Blake Bortles after his sloppy regression in 2016; Bortles seems to know he needs help as he went to ex-MLB pitcher and present QB guru Tom House to fix mechanics that stunk, but early camp indication after a five-INT session is disturbing for Bortles' future.  


North

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5), take the under
Cincinnati Bengals (9-7), take the under
Baltimore Ravens (9-7), take the under
Cleveland Browns (2-14)

The Steelers are the ones chirping loudest about the league's "Patriots problem," but their vow they have to get home field advantage rings hollow; the had home field advantage in 2001 and 2004 with nothing to show for it and three straight playoff runs have produced three wins, one of them a shaky escape job against AJ McCarron of the Bengals.   Good, undoubtedly - great, though, still seems beyond the Steelers.

Great is well beyond the Bengals, and one wonders who will finally replace Marvin Lewis; one remains surprised McCarron has not replaced Andy Dalton after McCarron proved capable of handling playoff football in 2015, something Dalton has proven he has zero ability to handle.   Talent-wise the Bengals seemed to dip in 2016; a damning anecdote is that left tackle Andrew Whitworth signed with the Rams because he saw his teammates were not committed to winning.   The player to watch is new receiver John Ross.

The Ravens have sunk into a non-contending .500 club with just thirteen wins the last two seasons.   Ozzie Newsome committed to defense in the draft, but the real issue is Joe Flacco has been in regression the last two seasons, ranking near the bottom last year despite improving from five to eight wins; his poor handling of reading defenses has become an issue as well as his pocket presence - not to mention a back issue that hit as camp started.

Forget it with the Browns; more and more it appears they made a complete mistake embracing analytics; no matter what the Browns touch, it turns to poison.



West 

Oakland Raiders (12-4)
Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)
Denver Broncos (8-8)
San Diego Chargers (5-11)

No, the mistaken city name for the Chargers is not an accident - it is merely reminder that they made a mistake going to Los Angeles and one should not buy they will stay there.   Philip Rivers' play is still good; his game has been largely irrelevant since losing to the NY Jets in the 2009 playoffs.  Anthony Lynn comes from a dismal one-game tryout with the Bills and inherits the inept Ken Whisenhunt as offensive coordinator; one also right now is weary of the new defensive coordinator, Jacksonville washout Gus Bradley. 

The Broncos won five straight AFC West titles but have sunk to a .500 club with two mediocre or worse quarterbacks in Trevor "Don't call me Trevor Langan" Siemian and Paxton Lynch; Siemian did earn respect as he showed improvement as the season went on, but teams seemed to figure him out as they got film on him, and early camp scuttlebutt is no one in the Broncos hierarchy is happy with either of them.    The defense actually played better in 2016 (there were a whopping fifty three-and-outs and the Broncos were fourth in fewest points allowed) than the previous two to three seasons yet could not stop opponents from winning five of the last eight 2016 games, and only a Derek Carr-less Raiders prevented the Broncos from falling to 8-8 in the final game.   The coaching staff is new, led by Vance Joseph, and a subplot will be the phaseout of zone blocking in favor of power schemes.

The Broncos won just two division games, and Kansas City is on a three-game streak in that rivalry.   The key remains Alex Smith, now with a presumptive successor on the roster in draft pick Pat Mahomes II; the wildcard is what looks like an All-Everything back in Tyreek Hill and his 1,836 all-purpose yards and twelve touchdowns - not quite Mack Herron-esque but surprisingly close.   On defense the Chiefs get gouged on yardage but prevent scores (seventh in fewest points allowed) and this should continue.   Andy Reid's extension is a no-brainer, but the firing of GM John Dorsey was a surprise.

The Chiefs beat the Raiders twice in 2016 and Oakland, now a lameduck in its present city with Las Vegas now an absurd fait accompli will have a hard time usurping that rampart.   There's no question the Raiders have the tools to do it now and the big extension to Derek Carr was the ultimate no-brainer, though coaching issues are popping up - the new offensive coordinator is Todd Downing, who is a rookie at that position, while ex-Seahawks assistant coach Ken Norton Jr. lost some of his power with the signing of John Pagano, recently of the Chargers, as Jack Del Rio's assistant head coach on defense.  One also wonders why the Raiders signed Marshawn Lynch, who'd regressed before taking 2016 off.   Keeping Derek Carr healthy is priority.



NATIONAL FOOTBALL CONFERENCE


East  

Dallas Cowboys (12-4)
New York Giants (10-6)
Philadelphia Eagles (8-8)
Washington Redskins (8-8)

The fear is Dakota Prescott and Zeke Elliott will hit a sophomore slump with the Cowboys; they might but they look good enough to still win twelve games.    Beating the NY Giants is the priority; the Giants spent $200 million to rebuild their defense a year ago and now have Brandon Marshall as a receiver.  The O-line, though, has been mediocre, Eli Manning played better but his game didn't score enough points in the end, and the Giants' star player is Odell Beckham Jr., a guy who hasn't shown commitment or focus; he wastes time practicing one-handed catches instead of more important nuances, and promoting his brand has become more prominent than perfecting his game - his awful effort in the Green Bay playoff loss showcased that Beckham is the kind of guy who isn't going to get it. 

The rest of the division is stuck in mediocrity - Carson Wentz played well for the Eagles and needs to improve; so do his receivers; the Dorial Green-Beckham experiment failed with the Titans and shows no hope with the Eagles, and the hope is being pinned on ex-Bear Alshon Jeffrey; tight end Zach Ertz hasn't made enough plays when it matters.

For the Redskins the Kirk Cousins soap opera is baffling and just one subplot of larger team dysfunction with the front office being in essence blown up.   Jay Gruden will now call plays and has Terrell Pryor as one new weapon; it remains to be seen if the Redskins can actually become a real team after flirting with legitimacy for most of the last five seasons.



South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (11-5), take the under
Atlanta Falcons (10-6)
Carolina Panthers (9-7)
New Orleans Saints (7-9)

Surprisingly, people are overlooking an improved Bucs team, a team that won six of its last eight games, including against playoff contenders Kansas City and Seattle.   Jameis Winston is looking better, though over forty turnovers in two seasons remains disconcerting; the other offensive player to watch is rookie tight end OJ Howard. 

The Superbowl collapse by the Falcons presents Atlanta with the longtime jinx where Superbowl losers don't make the game the next year.   The talent is obvious but weaknesses got exposed and Matt Ryan's long-term playoff liability is a question again. 

The Panthers no longer look like the playoff power they were two years ago, and between Cam Newton's regression and how much the defense surprisingly missed Josh Norman, the path back to the playoffs is a lot longer than expected.   Likewise the Saints have become irrelevant as far as the playoffs go; four 7-9 seasons in the last five indicate an organization that doesn't know how to elevate to the next level anymore; Sean Payton may now be done.



North 

Green Bay Packers (10-6), take the under
Minnesota Vikings (9-7), take the under
Detroit Lions (9-7), take the over
Chicago Bears (3-13)

The experts are gaga over Aaron Rodgers' play and harp on his eight-game winning streak before getting crushed in the NFC Championship game.   Nowhere in that string, or in the entirety of the season, did Rodgers win a single game where he had to stage a comeback, and he had a paltry two game-winning drives; that he won the Cowboys game after blowing a two-touchdown lead is mystifying.   Reading Jason Wilde's piece on Aaron Rodgers in ATHLON SPORTS 2017 NFL PREVIEW, it becomes more clear how much Rodgers relies on freelancing and athleticism with his legs as well as arm strength - a formula for spectacular play but which has never proven to be a championship winning formula.

This is what makes Matthew Stafford's game all the more interesting - there is no case to be made that Stafford is in any way better than Rodgers, yet Stafford the last year-and-a-half has changed his game - said one unnamed scout in ATHLON SPORTS, "(Stafford) is finally 'playing' the position" - where he is now truly playing small-ball offense, aka "a controlled short passing attack."   It is small ball that is the championship winning formula, proven year after year after year.   But the biggest problems remain beating quality opponents - Stafford's only wins over quality opponents last year were against the Colts and Redskins, both just eight-win clubs; in contrast the Titans team that beat him in Week Two had six wins against quality foes - and also stopping opponents.

The collapse of the Vikings after a 5-0 start indicated a team nowhere near ready for prime time; having an offseason to get used to new coordinator Pat Shurmer's version of the West Coast should help.   With Teddy Bridgewater's career perhaps over, Sam Bradford has to lead the offense; this time it won't be as a last-minute trade acquisition.   If the defense - deceptively good last year - plays better the Vikings may beat the odds this time.

It is unrealistic by now to have much hope for the Bears, especially with Mike Glennon as quarterback; one wonders when Mitchell Trubisky will take over in 2017.  It is surprising given John Fox's success developing quarterbacks in his two previous jobs.



West 

Seahawks (10-6)
Cardinals (9-7)
Rams (6-10)
49ers (5-11)

There's little to say about the NFC West.   The biggest weakness for the Seahawks is they've regressed back to the bad road team - six losses and the tie came on the road last season - they became under Mike Holmgren; the Richard Sherman soap opera became a surprise, but also a suggestion Pete Carroll is making some of the same mistakes made in New England.    Everyone else in the division is struggling to better .500; aging Carson Palmer remains Cardinals quarterback despite the complete loss of any useful mobility.   The 49ers and Rams are in long-term rebuild mode.



So it goes as we await training camps.

For The NFL In 2017, Now What?

And just like that the NFL season is over, a season that had a number of exciting games but which will always be remembered for one history-making game - the final game.    And now with rest and off-season preparations by teams we wonder - now what for a lot of these teams?

The 2016 Atlanta Falcons - every touchdown from 2016

We start a little out of order here - we begin with the team whose epic collapse in the Superbowl led right away to several key coaching staff firings (the firing of coach Bryan Cox - fifteen years after his one Superbowl as a player, coming with the Patriots - had the most irony) as well as the long-expected hiring of coordinator Kyle Shanahan to the 49ers.   Matt Ryan's meltdown brought back memories of his playoff failures of 2008-12 and it is very rare that a quarterback whose "first impression" is so poor ever gets better - i.e. only John Elway as far as I can remember ever took a dismal playoff record and then turned it around to win Superbowls.    Given the manifest talent on this team a strong future seems assured; but it depends on how Matt Ryan handles it going forward and also how Dan Quinn addresses what went wrong.



AMERICAN FOOTBALL CONFERENCE - 

The New England Patriots - every touchdown from 2016.


The only problem here is whether they can sign all the free agents that are pending and also if they can reinforce a banged-up tight end/pass catching corps.

The Miami Dolphins - every touchdown from 2016

A clearly ascending team is the Miami Dolphins, who surprised the league after a 1-4 start to win ten games and clearly suffered when Ryan Tannehill was lost for the season late in the going.   Adam Gase now has a template to work with here and it would seem the Dolphins will now challenge for the AFC East.

The Buffalo Bills - every touchdown from 2016


Sean McDermott comes from the Panthers to a Bills team that has legitimate talent but which inexplicably decided to play E.J. Manuel in the season finale - and to dismal effect.   GM Doug Whaley has been there since 2013 and the Bills have gone 30-34 in that span - they need to figure out who the quarterback is, and it would seem Tyrod Taylor is a better option right now than Manuel.

The New York Jets - every touchdown from 2016


The big question for the Jets for 2017 - who is going to be their quarterback?  Ryan Fitzpatrick's relevance seems over,  Bryce Petty showed nothing to give confidence down the road, and the Jets may go after someone like Matt Cassel to plug the hole - which has been in keeping with the Jets' inability to build a respectable program.

The Houston Texans - every touchdown from 2016


Like so many struggling teams the defending AFC South champs have a quarterback issue - this one self-inflicted and which owner Bob McNair acknowledged after the season.   There is also the question of whether Bill O'Brien, who was hired because they thought he can develop a quarterback, can in fact do so, having failed to do so in three seasons.   Given Brock Osweiler's cap status the Texans appear stuck with him for 2017 and it became clear Osweiler is not up to handling the complex offense O'Brien favors as opposed to the two-read offense he played in Denver.   Houston appears to be a team stuck where it is.

The Tennessee Titans - every touchdown from 2016


The Titans in contrast made huge strides in 2016 - not only winning nine games after winning just eleven the previous three seasons, but six of those 2016 wins were against playoff teams and the defending Superbowl champs - and the issue is keeping Marcus Mariota healthy as well as reinforcing a roster that has proven to be very solid.   Mike Mularky is proving himself a better head coach than people thought he was previously and the Titans appear ready to take another step forward into playoff contender.

The Indianapolis Colts - every touchdown from 2016

Clearly Andrew Luck can play at a high level, but just how high is still a mystery, so the question centers on new GM Scott Ballard, formerly of the Chiefs whose track record in Kansas City speaks very well of him.    A Colts roster seemingly short on depth - in large part to the absurd decision to overpay Luck and a few other players, a malady common to NFL teams - awaits a GM who can build depth.

The Jacksonville Jaguars - every touchdown from 2016


Easily the most promising changes are the hiring of former Jaguars coach Tom Coughlin as de facto GM and Doug Marrone as head coach.   There clearly is talent here but the impression now is Blake Bortles, heralded as a rising star after 2015, is a mirage of sloppy mechanics and lack of clutch playmaking.  Marrone will have his work cut out for the second-worst team of the decade.

The Pittsburgh Steelers - every touchdown from 2016


They do what they do, but scuttlebutt that Ben Roethlisberger may retire throws a wrench into the situation, this for a team exposed as stuck below Superbowl level and frankly fortunate they reached the AFC Championship Game in 2016.

The Baltimore Ravens - every touchdown from 2016


In worse shape are the Ravens, who improved in 2016 after a dismal 2015 but the improvement was not that impressive and one wonders whether John Harbaugh is starting to burn out the way his brother seems to do as well as whether Joe Flacco can improve his play.

The Cincinnati Bengals - every touchdown from 2016


Marvin Lewis is returning, and Andy Dalton remains starter.   The talent is clearly there, though a question that has gone unasked shouldn't be - what about AJ McCarron?

The Cleveland Browns - every touchdown from 2016


Complete mess - that is all one can say about the Browns.  Robert Griffin III was a huge mistake and the worst team in the league was set back still more by it.    They're early candidates to trade for Jimmy Garoppolo with one bizarre rumor - one I don't particularly buy - having Rob Gronkowski added as a package deal.  

The Kansas City Chiefs - every touchdown from 2016


Clearly a playoff contender, the question centers on Alex Smith - he showed improvement under playoff pressure but one wonders if he has any improvement left to get to that next level.

The Oakland Raiders - every touchdown from 2016


The Raiders clearly are on the cusp of playoff winning with Derek Carr and a solid cast under Jack Del Rio, though the fiasco of the attempted move to Las Vegas hangs over this team and one wonders about Carr after his injury, though I suspect he'll be fine.

The Denver Broncos - every touchdown from 2016


The Broncos fell to 9-7 and their quarterback situation is now a question, as Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch were only good enough to win that many games, nowhere close to enough to become a playoff contender.   Defensively they remain stout, but coaching changes also throw a wrench into things.

The San Diego Chargers - every touchdown from 2016


This has become an ugly affair - trying to move to LA, encountering striking resistance to the move, Philip Rivers finished as a playoff contender amid word he's done with the team - what should be a better team instead has become a bad joke.




NATIONAL FOOTBALL CONFERENCE -


Having addressed the Falcons above we turn to the NFC South's other teams -

The Carolina Panthers - every touchdown from 2016


Suddenly there is trouble in Carolina.   The scuttlebutt for awhile is Cam Newton's work ethic is slipshod and his regression in 2016, especially reverting to the petulant child that threatened to derail his career during 2012, would seem to bear this out.   One also wonders just how dependent the Panthers were on Josh Norman as they fell apart defensively once he left for the Redskins.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers - every touchdown from 2016


The Bucs showed legitimate improvement in 2016 and Jameis Winston looks to be an ascender.   The Bucs need to go to another level; winning six of their last eight games in 2016 suggests they will in 2017.

The New Orleans Saints - every touchdown from 2016


The Saints' run as a playoff team appears over and Drew Brees' run of 5,000-yard seasons looks emptier and emptier. Defensively he hasn't gotten that much help and it's been a problem for several years; one wonders whether Sean Payton has run out of answers.

The Dallas Cowboys - every touchdown from 2016


Be afraid of the Cowboys - Dakota Prescott and company are the real deal and they look like they can get even better; beating the NY Giants is the first order of business; winning playoff games is next after one of the bitterest playoff losses in years.

The New York Giants - every touchdown from 2016


The Giants improved markedly in the first year of coach Ben McAdoo; the season sweep of the Cowboys - three in a row in that series now - was the highlight of the season; getting wasted by Aaron Rodgers' Packers was the lowlight and comes with an aging Eli Manning.

The Washington Redskins - every touchdown from 2016


The Redskins remain stuck in neutral - decent enough to post a winning record but not a true playoff contender.   The difference now is there seems to be a competent program being built. 

The Philadelphia Eagles - every touchdown from 2016


The Eagles have underachieved for some four years now since the firing of Andy Reid.   Carson Wentz's rookie season was decent; improvement is a must for 2017 there and elsewhere.

The Green Bay Packers - every touchdown from 2016


Overrated and they seem to like it that way - for five straight years the Packers have made the playoffs and for five straight years have fallen well short of a Superbowl.   Aaron Rodgers has been strikingly immune from criticism despite his perennial failures when needing to lead a comeback; 2017 does not look to get any better.

The Minnesota Vikings - every touchdown from 2016


The Viking are clearly hoping Teddy Bridgewater can return, but word he may not for 2017 just makes things more uneasy for a team that should be a lot better than 8-8.

The Detroit Lions - every touchdown from 2016


This is another team stuck where it is - 9-7, no playoff wins since 1991, and virtually no wins against any kind of quality opponent.   Matthew Stafford has become Detroit's Drew Bledsoe - a talented quarterback who lifted a terrible outfit to respectability and then some yet can't go any further.  He clearly functions better with Jim Caldwell and offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter than he did previously, yet it hasn't proven enough to get to the next level.

The Chicago Bears - every touchdown from 2016 


Clearly Jay Cutler is done.   His incompetence as a quarterback hid that the Bears have other issues; one though still feels John Fox can get something going with a different quarterback.  

The Seattle Seahawks - every touchdown from 2016    


They're not the same Legion Of Boom, and one has to wonder if Pete Carroll is beginning to flame out as he did with the Patriots.

The Arizona Cardinals - every touchdown from 2016


Carson Palmer regressed in 2016 and the fact he is returning for 2017 is troubling for a team that in 2015 exploded to thirteen wins.     A newer, younger quarterback is becoming a necessity.

The Rams - every touchdown from 2016 


The Rams are building a new stadium in LA so they are committed to staying there, this even though their return to LA was a dud, especially after a surprising 3-1 start.   Jeff Fisher was fired and the Rams look to now regret drafting Jared Goff, totally ineffective as a quarterback.  This is another fine mess the NFL has.

The San Francisco 49ers - every touchdown from 2016  

From Superbowl contender to cellar dweller - league-wide hatred of Jed York is becoming ever-more prominent, especially after huffy presser where he lectured, "You can't fire owners" (he might want to ask the NBA and Donald Sterling about that).    The Niners went outside the box - but in a dubious way - by hiring former player John Lynch as GM; they also hired former Falcons OC Kyle Shanahan as head coach and Shanahan will have final say on the 53-man roster while Lynch handles the draft, free agency, etc. The hiring of a former player and TV analyst has been unfavorably compared to the disastrous Matt Millen era in Detroit, and the Niners are already back where they were in 2004 - a 2-14 team whose only success last year came against one division foe (the Rams). The Colin Kaepernick issue had better be handled right away as Kaepernick is a failure as a quarterback and a cancer to the team.


So for the next six months the NFL will rest in one respect, reload in another.    

Debate Won By Patriots In Superbowl LI

The debate has now been won by the New England Patriots as their comeback win in Superbowl LI - the largest in the game's history, the third-largest comeback win in a playoff game in NFL history - cemented Tom Brady as the greatest quarterback ever and the Patriots as the greatest team of all time.
 

Of course greatest team of all time will still come as a shock to the oldtimers who remember the reign of error that was Billy Sullivan, the team's founder.


There are plenty of takes from this game -


Brady throws 50 passes and wins again - A curiously overlooked angle going in was what would happen if the Falcons forced Brady to throw over fifty passes - Brady won his 18th game when throwing over fifty; he is the only quarterback in NFL history to post a winning record - and it is a mind-blowing 18-7 - when having to throw more than fifty passes; Warren Moon (5-5) in NFL history is the only other quarterback who has a non-losing record when throwing at least fifty.    It plays into Brady's hands when he has to throw more than fifty passes.


Roger Goodell is the most petulant idiot to ever be placed in charge of a major sports sanctioning body - Goodell's Wednesday presser was all about his petulant hatred of the New England Patriots and was filled with the lawyerese evasions that characterize a liar.   Contrast this with former commissioner Paul Tagliabue, who acknowledged he should have had the league be more concerned about player concussions than he did.

Goodell's refusal to visit Gillette Stadium comes from his inability to handle being held accountable, and it showed when pressed about it by reporters, not all of the hostile ones being New England reporters.   That indicates the national press is slowly turning more and more against Goodell, and they should.

How will Matt Ryan react in 2017?  - Ryan was almost flawless in the first 37 or so minutes but once the Patriots began the comeback Ryan regressed back to the playoff failure that had permeated his 2008-12 period.   The Falcons O-line that had so controlled things for so long then collapsed on him and it added into utter failure of an offense that had scored 28 points and led by 25 points.   Ryan faces the Patriots in Foxboro in 2017 and it seems a certainly Week One's banner celebration will precede a game against the Falcons. 

Quarterbacking is what wins championships yet again -  The Falcons defense came to play - and it lost.   The Patriots defense was utterly helpless - made worse by Brady's pick-six - until Tom Brady rescued it; in all seven Brady Superbowls the defense was defeated and then rescued by Brady; twice the defense then failed again, five times Brady finished the mission.

Defense has never won a championship - not the 1960s Packers, not the 2000 Ravens, not the Steeler Curtain, none of them.    It has been quarterbacking that wins championships.

What is it where the Superbowl sees the catches that are never repeated anywhere else?  - David Tyree, Jermaine Kearse, and now Julian Edelman.


Why didn't the Falcons run the ball more in the second half?  - Because as the play by play sheet indicates when they did  run the ball after going up 28-3 it wasn't working.


What do the Patriots need to do down the road for 2017?  - The Patriots' smurf-receiver approach certainly works, but it needs bigger guys and more of them to flesh it out - the Falcons were more of a physical downfield-type attack and the Patriots can certainly use that - for too long the receivers (especially Edelman, usually the guy Brady trusts the most) were not making plays.   Malcolm Mitchell stepped up when it mattered most and Chris Hogan made several huge catches as well - not having Rob Gronkowski certainly proved a factor, until Martellus Bennett began stepping up when it mattered most.  

Defensively the Patriots' zone approach too often got them burned with Falcons receivers all but uncontested where New England's smurf corps was almost always fighting Falcons defensive backs.   The Falcons also for so much of the game fought and got the ball harder than Patriot receivers did until the comeback got going.

The Patriots vs the NFC South champion in a Superbowl in Houston - maybe Houston should host the Superbowl every two to three years


Will we ever see another Superbowl like this?   - Probably.   No one thought Superbowl XXXVIII could ever be topped, then subsequent Superbowls showed shocking competition; Superbowl XLIX was the most shocking finish ever seen and the largest comeback win in the game's history to that point, but this.....the winning quarterback suspended on false pretense by a commissioner exposed as a liar by the process, a team that had not made the game since 1998 exploding to a 28-3 lead, and then the biggest comeback in Superbowl history and the third-largest comeback in playoff history after Buffalo's 1992 win from down 32 points to the Oilers and the Colts' 2013 win over the Chiefs from down 28 points.......was unprecedented.   And yet the Superbowl somehow tops itself.  


So who will the Patriots have to contend with in 2017 to repeat?  - The Miami Dolphins are clearly better now and are developing into a genuine contender and Miami appears to be the only division foe the Patriots have to worry about.

In the AFC South there has been the implosion of Brock Osweiler and what amounts to the team's public admission of making a colossal mistake at signing him, though the caveat remains Osweiler was good with what amounted to a two-read offense and Bill O'Brien made him run a five-plus read offense; one wonders if O'Brien might install a more Osweiler-friendly offense for 2017 - assuming a new Texans quarterback doesn't emerge. 

With Houston's struggle the Tennessee Titans, who beat five playoff teams plus the defending champion Broncos (9-7) in 2016 even with late-season injury to Marcus Mariota, look to take over that division and one can be confident Mariota's major step forward in 2016 will continue and extend in 2017.    The rest of the division is iffy with the Colts presently stuck at 8-8 and the Jaguars having to rise from the wreckage of a lost decade, though the hiring of Tom Coughlin to the front office is an encouraging sign.

The AFC North is a mess with the Ravens mediocre, the Steelers incapable of adjusting based on their poor performance in the AFC Championship Game, and the Bengals having regressed.

The AFC West proved itself stout but the Chiefs overachieved and the Raiders played superbly but fell apart when Derek Carr got injured; the Broncos meanwhile have a good defense but it's not good enough to win them games; the Chargers are suddenly in an ugly limbo with a move to LA that's developing into a fiasco.

The Superbowl even had a Peter Hermann sighting!

And of course the subplot of all Superbowls is the ads during the telecast.   Peter Hermann's ad was easily the most memorable.

 

The Patriots are accused of being able to plug in anyone to play their system - well this guy and his lovely wife were signed as utility backs and finished with 80 touches for 1,000 yards and fourteen touchdowns.   

HEHEHE.

The Patriots and Falcons radio calls of the comeback

So it went for the greatest Superbowl ever played.


Writer Russ Roberts also examines whether Bill Belichick is lucky.

1998 NFC Championship Game: Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings

The greatest game in Atlanta Falcons history entering Superbowl LI.

Aaron Rodgers Mister Irrelevant Redux

So the NFL now has its Superbowl LI contestants and the Conference Championship Games were revelatory about how good the New England Patriots are and how much a fraud the Pittsburgh Steelers and especially the Green Bay Packers are.  

Back in 2011 and 2012 several pieces first raised analytical awareness of Aaron Rodgers' inability to win clutch games.    Entering 2012 Rodgers was Mister Irrelevant in the fourth quarter at just 3-18 in comeback attempts.   By October 2013 - following Green Bay's 34-30 loss to the Bengals in which Rodgers erased a 14-0 gap, led 30-14, and when a 4th-down fumble became the go-ahead Bengals touchdown failed to lead the comeback - he fell to 5-24 in comeback attempts.

And since then, nothing has qualitatively gotten any better - my quick and dirty count indicates he is now 10-41 in comeback attempts, and even more damning, by my quick and dirty count he is 4-31 in games where he trailed by at least two scores and also 0-35 in comebacks against quality opponents.   For 2016 he finished 0-7 in games where he had to stage a fourth quarter comeback and 0-6 when he trailed by at least two scores; his only two game-winning drives were against the Bears - after blowing a 17-point lead - and at the Cowboys - where he was outscored 18-6 in the fourth quarter.  Indeed the fourth quarter of Green Bay's 2016 games is illustrative of Rodgers, doing nothing well beyond frontrunning, and inability to make clutch plays -

@ Jaguars - 3 points in a game the Packers never trailed

@ Vikings - 7 points down 17-7, lost game

vs Lions - shutout in fourth of game the Packers never trailed

vs NY Giants - 6 points in game they never trailed

vs Cowboys - 10 points when they trailed 27-9, lost game

vs Bears - 13 points where they were leading at the start of the fourth

@ Falcons - 8 points, fell behind 33-32, Rodgers comeback failed, lost game

vs Colts - 13 points when trailing by 18, lost game

@ Titans - shutout in fourth, lost game

@ Redskins - 14 points when down 22-10, outscored 20-14 in fourth, lost game

@ Eagles - 10 points in game they never trailed

vs Texans - 14 points after game was tied entering the fourth

vs Seahawks - 10 points in game already up 28-3 entering the fourth

@ Bears - 3 points after blowing 17-point lead

vs Vikings - 10 points when up 28-10 entering the fourth

@ Lions - 14 points when leading 17-14 entering fourth

vs NY Giants - 14 points when leading 24-13 entering the fourth

@ Cowboys - 6 points where they blew a 15-point lead and were outscored 18-6

@ Atlanta - 6 points in game they never led, lost game

 
The funniest Green Bay meltdown of 2016 was also the most prescient toward Green Bay's ultimate massacre at the hands of another southern division NFL team


By this point of Rodgers' career it's obvious he is not a great quarterback. When he faces clutch situations, he falters - if he has to stage a comeback, he fails.    People fall in love with the athleticism and arm strength, but too often these are substitutes for smart quarterbacking the way he plays - his lack of a small ball attack is a fundamental weakness, as he prefers the spectacular play - athleticism and arm strength.   Indeed what is striking the more one watches him is he so often gets away with what dumb quarterbacks usually do.   

And so he falls short yet again and has now lost in the playoffs six straight seasons, 5-6 in overall playoff games in that span.

Meanwhile there's not much to say about the Patriots' usual demolition of the Steelers beyond sayonara Steelers.  


So the two week interregnum for New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons begins.

NFL Playoffs When Valiance Doesn't Produce Victory

In the NFL valiance sometimes doesn't produce victory.

The Dallas Cowboys will forever lament what should have been yet again in a playoff loss to a Packers team that did most of its damage on Aaron Rodgers' first three drives and which was incapable of holding leads of 21-3 and 28-13.   People kept wondering how Dakota Prescott would handle his first playoff game - after early struggle he relaxed and started landing the ball downfield, and to erase a three-score lead and then tie the game twice in the final minutes, there's nothing to be ashamed of.

As for Rodgers his dependence on the Hail Mary throw didn't show up here and he showed a more conventional quarterbacking approach than he showed at times last week.   This game also displayed a longtime problem in Rodgers' game - most of his damage was done in the first three touchdown drives and he managed two field goals in the final minutes, highlighted by his spectacular connection to Jared Cook with three seconds to go, certainly clutch a performance and doubly ironic as such clutchness has been rare in his career.

The Steelers escaped from Kansas City in a game where Roethlisberger threw a pick and never once punched it in, having to settle for a new NFL record six field goals.   Alex Smith's general unreliability as a playoff quarterback had been an issue in his past but in this game he actually showed ability to step up, as he brought the Chiefs back late - a penalty on a two-point conversion proved controversial and fatal to Kansas City's chances.  



So we thus approach the Conference Championships -

Falcons over Packers - The Packers lead the Falcons 2-1 in all-time playoff meetings and Matt Ryan got only his second career playoff win in pounding the Seahawks last week; one of his playoff losses was 2010's 48-21 smackdown to the Packers, the first of four straight Packers wins in the series, a streak that ended earlier this season.   The Falcons, though, showed more physicality this go-around against the Seahawks and it should stand them in good stead against the Packers.   Seemingly everyone is gaga over Aaron Rodgers but in his earlier game at the Georgia Dome he had one scoring drive in the fourth quarter and had opportunity to get to field goal range at the very end - and threw three straight incompletions.   

This game should be high scoring because it's a dome and both offenses are clicking.    Rodgers will put up points, but his reputation as just a frontrunner isn't going away even as he pulls off these playoff wins, and it's the first time the Falcons have reached the NFC Championship Game since their immortal upset of the Minnesota Vikings in the 1998 NFC Championship Game.  

Patriots over Steelers -   The rivalry between the Patriots and Steelers has been lopsided since Drew Bledsoe and Curtis Martin eviscerated the Steelers in the 1996 Divisional Round.    The last time these two teams met in the playoffs was yet another lopsided affair, and games between the two have almost never been competitive.

A lot of people are gaga over Antonio Brown and the Steelers passing attack and it has been spectacular, but last week it was largely neutralized and this week it faces a Patriots defense that
isn't getting gashed for points and which has consistently been a second-half defense.   The Steelers also have an issue of the deportment of coach Mike Tomlin, criticized for being a cheerleader instead of a real coach by Terry Bradshaw - a criticism Tomlin's recorded tirade against the Patriots would appear to verify.

On offense the Patriots had a serious struggle against the Texans between protecting up the middle and also with Brady lapsing back into the habit of leaning on a binky - here Julian Edelman, as he and Chris Hogan were almost the only people Brady targeted all game; whenever Brady leans on a binky the offense inevitably grinds to a halt.   Hogan left last week with a knee issue after four catches for 95 yards but should be good for this coming game; also expected back is Malcolm Mitchell, out for much of the second half of the season with a knee issue.   Michael Floyd was targeted just four times and a bad Brady pass bounced off his hands into a pick - Brady needs to keep throwing to Floyd as well as Martellus Bennett, whose own game health nonetheless looked to be an issue last week.   Danny Amendola returned last week and had a key rush for twelve yards, so having him as another pass catcher is a plus.



So we await Conference Championship Sunday.

NFL Puts The Division In Divisional Round

The NFL's 2016 season hit the divisional round of the playoffs and once again an off-field story has usurped attention from the on-field competition.  

San Diego's 43-35 shootout over the Tennessee Titans was in a sense the last hurrah for the San Diego Chargers

The rumor of a move of the San Diego Chargers to Los Angeles had died down in recent weeks, even to circulating speculation the Chargers, seeing less than promising response to the presence of the Rams in LA in 2016, would postpone a decision until after 2017.   But that blew up when Dean Spanos announced the Chargers are moving to Carson, CA and will play there in 2017 until Stan Kroenke's new Rams stadium is built around 2019. 

The rumor had swelled after San Diego voters rejected a hotel tax to fund a new stadium in San Diego, and they were stunned when Dean Spanos made the announcement of the move and the rebranding of the team after the wildcard round of the NFL's playoffs.   The anger of Chargers fans caught more than a few in the media by surprise, and the universal indifference of reaction in Los Angeles was also telling.

The rationalization of the move was strikingly muted in the media; indeed what was most striking was national media condemnation of Spanos for moving the Chargers and also mocking of Roger Goodell's claim that "It is not a viable option" for the team owners and the league to spend its own money on stadiums - of course this was exposed as yet another Goodell lie (though the attitude predates Goodell) by the roughly $600 million relocation fee the Chargers have to pay, as if they could not have refurbished Qualcomm Stadium with Spanos' own money the way Stephen Ross has done to Joe Robbie Stadium in Miami; Kroenke's new LA stadium is being built with his own money, which catches one by surprise with Minnesota and Atlanta getting new publically-financed stadiums.  

The assertion that staying in San Diego (a market by all accounts the NFL wants because it is a football town) retards the long-range value of the Chargers - with repeated citation of the purchase price of the LA Clippers in the $2 billon range - is laughable given LA's miserable record as a sports town with little fan support, sponsor support that does not stand out compared to other markets, and the faltering of fan support of the Rams almost as soon as they played their first home games.    It is striking how universal the view is that moving the Chargers to LA makes zero sense - of course it indeed makes zero sense.

After this travesty came the laughable follow-up - the Oakland Raiders filed paperwork to move to Las Vegas, yet another con of a sports market.

The relocation story cast a shadow over Saturday's wildcard games. The New England Patriots were overwhelming favorites over the ineffective Brock Osweiler and the Houston Texans.   The game itself was a wire-to-wire Patriots win by 18 points, but the Patriots struggled strikingly badly on offense with no rhythm, two INTs by Brady, a Dion Lewis fumble on a kick return, and a disturbingly limited number of pass-catching targets in Chris Hogan - sidelined in the third with a thigh issue - and Julian Edelman.   Lack of pass-catching depth has plagued the Patriots' playoff runs of late and this time it is doubly striking given the depth the Patriots seemed to have going in.

Brock Osweiler's growing incompetence as a quarterback was exposed yet again as he threw a bad pick that set up Dion Lewis' touchdown.   

The Seahawks' road woes of 2016 reached their nadir at the Georgia Dome - they finish 3-5-1 in road games in 2016 - as Matt Ryan grabbed only his second career playoff win - both of them against the Seahawks.   This season marked the end of the Legion Of Boom and the Seahawks face a period where they will stay contenders with Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll but are not a championship-caliber outfit - and Wilson's poor play made this point even more.  

NFL Playoffs Division And Conquer

The NFL's playoffs are off and running and already we've had two football diva moments -

First Odell Beckham Jr. is doing nothing but make the case that he is a liability to the NY Giants.   He came up small yet again in a big game - and one cannot remember one time where Beckham ever raised his game even marginally in any kind of big game.   Beckham's sideline and postgame tantrums are getting worse, notably with a reported blowup after his Giants got smoked by Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.   

Beckham's marketing endeavor has by now all but surpassed his on-field production and the conclusion one can only draw now is he is not a serious football player, he is a self-marketed brand name irrelevant to winning.
Even worse is Beckham was part of a party cruise several days before the Packers game with several teammates, a sign of a lack of discipline on the part of Giants coaching apart from the awfulness of the Giants' overall performance against the overrated Packers, where they had the Packers manhandled for much of the first half and couldn't score, and couldn't stop Aaron Rodgers from yet more desperation heaves that he keeps getting away with - his overall game more and more is becoming streetball - based on freelancing and overreliance on athleticism and arm strength to get out of situations - rather than the kind of smart quarterbacking that today is personified by Tom Brady.


*****


The second diva moment came when Steelers coaching assistant Joey Porter - a former linebacker with the Steelers - was arrested outside a bar following the game.   Porter's history as a player was one of instigating fights, so getting arrested would seem to be par for the course for a guy who's not worth a damn anymore than Odell Beckham Jr.  


*****


The Steelers' win over the Dolphins was one of several curious revenge bowl games that permeated Wildcard weekend, as the Steelers avenged their earlier slaughter at Miami, while the Houston Texans manhandled the punchless Oakland Raiders - as for the first time a Houston pro football team defeated the Raiders in the playoffs after losses by the Oilers in three such contests - and the Packers got a measure of revenge over the Giants after the two playoff losses (2007 and 2011).  

 

Divisional round weekend offers more such opportunity.


Falcons over Seahawks -  This is a rematch of 2012's playoff stunner at the Georgia Dome and one recalls this 2012 meeting remains Matt Ryan's only career playoff win.   In Seattle's victory over the Lions, former Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren served as the color analyst on Westwood One's radio call, and it is doubly fitting as the Seahawks enter this game having reverted to the distinguishing characteristic of Holmgren's time as Seahawks coach - poor performance in road games (3-4-1 on the road this year).   The Seahawks even at home against a Lions team that has once and for all shown no ability to beat a quality opponent didn't play all that strongly.     It's a key game for Ryan as he has never proven he can elevate his game when it matters.

In 2015 the Patriots faced JJ Watt - and Watt was invisible.


Patriots over Texans -  The Texans managed the win over the Raiders who didn't have a capable quarterback.   It the short history of the Texans they've won once against the Patriots and the losses to the Patriots have been almost invariably embarrassing.    The Patriots enter this game with the deepest receiving corps they've had in years and the top scoring defense in the league; Houston's defense has also been strong, but Houston's seven losses speaks to that defense not being as good as the numbers might suggest.  

Steelers over Chiefs -  A lot of people are awed by Antonio Brown of the Steelers and in yet another rematch from the regular season the Steelers get a Chiefs team they annihilated in Week Four.   The caveat here is the Chiefs have forced 23 turnovers since then (plus-six in turnover differential over the Steelers in that span) with ten wins in their last twelve games, plus the way the playoffs have gone the home team enters Divisional Round weekend unbeaten.   

Cowboys over Packers   - We mentioned Aaron Rodgers' style of play - streetball, just freelancing and relying on athleticism and arm strength instead of smart quarterbacking.   The Cowboys play smarter football and have already manhandled the Packers in their own building this season.    The match between these two that will get a lot of recall is the Dez Bryant catch in 2014 that was overruled.   Dakota Prescott has shown Russell Wilson-esque calm in tough situations and the result has been Dallas' 13-3 surge.



So we thus await Odell Beckham's next meltdown and Divisional Weekend.

NFL's Top 50 Catches Of 2016

The top fifty catches of the 2016 NFL season.

Yes Jim Mora There Is A Playoffs

The NFL season has reached -

Yes Jim Mora, there is a playoffs.  

We'll start with the Houston Texans, AFC South champs.   Their quarterback situation has been iffy at best this season and lately has gotten downright ugly.    Tom Savage struggled in the game against the Titans and was lost with a concussion, so Brock Osweiler came off the bench and finished the game, a 24-17 Titans win.   For the Titans it's something to build on for 2017 once Marcus Mariota heals up having taken a major step forward as a quarterback.

For the Texans it's a quarterback issue when they least need one.

But the Texans host their wildcard round game against a team with even bigger quarterback issues in the Oakland Raiders.   Matt McGloin had to start with Derek Carr out until next season, and McGloin struggled before getting knocked out at Denver.   As a result rookie Connor Cook took over and it wasn't in the least bit pretty, though Cook acquitted himself reasonably well given his rawness.    It salvaged a winning season for the Broncos as coach Gary Kubiak is reported on his way to retirement, leaving more questions for the lame duck champs.


My prediction for this wildcard game - Texans win.

The bad news in the AFC West is the San Diego Chargers ended the season - and perhaps their life in San Diego - in disgrace with two more interceptions by Philip Rivers and a 37-27 Kansas City Chiefs win.   With just 48 wins and one playoff win this decade so far the Chargers have been perhaps the most aggravating un-achiever in the AFC given the talent on this squad, and the disgrace of their refusal to renovate Qualcomm Stadium - their true home - and presumptive move to the pit that is Los Angeles makes it all the worse.

For the Chiefs 2016 continues at 12-4 and the second seed in the AFC; they thus await the winners of the wildcard round.   It's been a stunning surge from starting 2015 at 1-5 - and winning 23 of their next 28 games to date.

The Steelers rested starters and got a game out of the 1-15 Browns and Robert Griffin III, who shockingly looked like an actual quarterback.   The Browns took the lead in overtime and the Steelers clawed down, even chancing a 4th and 2 conversion, before spearing the Browns for the win yet again.    They are thus AFC North champs and the three seed.

The Dolphins made a game of it at the end of the first half but the Patriots then escalated the firepower and won 35-14, this after a lot of pregame verbiage about losing three straight at Miami.    The Dolphins had secured the six seed in the AFC and had an outside shot at the five seed.   An interesting point was made by ESPN - should the Dolphins win their wildcard game they would go to Foxboro for the divisional round no matter what else happened, so there's nothing to gain by showing everything in this Week 17 game.   Whether one buys it or not depends on taste.


In any event the Dolphins head to Pittsburgh for the divisional round.

The last time the Steelers played the Dolphins the result was a turning point for the Dolphins season and a reality check for the Steelers.

My prediction - Dolphins win.

Yes Matt Moore is now the quarterback and one is iffy about him in a playoff game.   But the Steelers have been overrated the last five seasons with just one playoff win in that span plus the Dolphins are well ahead of all expectations under first-year coach Adam Gase.   Jay Ajayi is the primary weapon for the Dolphins and the Steelers didn't slow him down a whole lot earlier this year, plus their overall run defense has allowed 4.1 Yards Per Carry - not that encouraging.  

The game meant nothing since the Cowboys were top seed in the NFC, but it was fun seeing Mark Sanchez prove anew his ineptitude as a quarterback.  

With the Cowboys already the NFC's top seed the Falcons won the race with the Seahawks for the conference's #2 seed and continued the erosion of the Saints that has been ongoing for several years now, an erosion that makes Drew Brees' 5,208 yards this season irrelevant even as a trivia bit.   The Falcons thus await the wildcard round results.

The Seahawks surprisingly struggled to put away the hapless 49ers, continuing a noticeable slide since the Superbowl loss, the slide becoming more noticeable this past season with a strikingly mediocre offense and reversion to the Holmgren-era bugaboo where the Seahawks would win all their home games  (though not literally in 2016) and then blow it on the road every week (specifically they were 2-5-1 on the road in 2016).         

The Giants had already secured the NFC's five seed so the Redskins had the chance to make it in as the six - the odds were long, though, and in the end the Skins proved they're not close to being primetime caliber. 


The Sunday Night game meanwhile showed anew two things - the Packers can frontrun to victory and the Lions have NO ability to handle ANY kind of quality opponent. Quinton Collins' very serious neck injury put the damper on the game and thus brought the regular season to a strikingly forgettable halt. Thus the Packers will host the New York Giants in the wildcard round.


My prediction - Giants win.

Everyone is gaga about Aaron Rodgers' athleticism and arm strength and also that he fulfilled his run the table prediction.    The Packers also beat the Giants 23-16 earlier this season.    Since then though the Giants won nine of their next eleven games - and had more wins (four) over teams with .500 or better records than the Packers (three) in their six-game win streak - while the Packers slumped to 4-6 before their late-season rally after losing five straight games (this during a six-game stretch) to teams that finished at least .500. The Packers' secondary hasn't acquitted itself all that well and for all his erraticism Eli Manning is a lot more trustworthy than a Packers team he beat three straight times before 2016's toe-stub in October.


As for Lions at Seahawks, it's a slam-dunk win for the Seahawks.    Matthew Stafford is useless against any good opponent and for all the Seahawks' struggles Russell Wilson long ago proved himself in the crucible great quarterbacks have to master - a crucible that is too much for Stafford, Jim Caldwell, and the Lions.  


So we await playoff Week One.

NFL Christmas Weekend Goes Down Hard

Back in the day, on old-school SportsCenter, Keith Olbermann's schtick included his spoof of Al Davis' northeastern drawl reciting the phrase, "The other team's quarterback must go down and he must go down hard."  It would come out as "Th'uthuh teamz' quaddaback must go down and he must go down HOD."  

Problem is on Christmas weekend in the NFL numerous teams and two key quarterbacks all went down hard.  

The Oakland Raiders' season reached the most wins since 2000 but Derek Carr was knocked out of the game and it threw Oakland's pending playoff run into uncertainty, while the Indianapolis Colts' season effectively ended.

The Titans likewise went down hard in an ugly 38-17 loss at the Jacksonville Jaguars, extending a streak of eight seasons where the two teams split their semi-annual meetings.   Marcus Mariota suffered a serious injury himself, ending Tennessee's playoff bid.   People say the league is better when the Raiders are contenders; it's also better when the Titans - one of the two flagship teams (the Chiefs are the other when they were the Dallas Texans) of the American Football League when they were the Houston Oilers - are contenders.  

The win was a huge morale-booster for the beleaguered  Jaguars, the kind of game a lot of people expected of Jacksonville at the start of the year, and a good start for new coach Doug Marrone.

NY Jets coach Todd Bowles was briefly hospitalized with a health scare the night before the game at the Patriots; he went home with a football ulcer as the NY Jets were....well, the NY Jets again, as Bryce Petty's only "completion" before HE went down was an interception.    An inexplicably timed timeout by the Jets further allowed the Patriots to score at the end of the first half.   

This has been a year of memorable anniversaries - for the Jets 2016 marked the 20th anniversary of the disastrous 1996 squad where the Jets spent a then-record $70 million on free agent and rookie talent and won ONE game.

Two stunners saw identical 34-31 scores and had significant playoff implications.   First the Bills rallied to take a 31-28 lead, but the Dolphins tied it and after the Bills missed a FGA in OT the Dolphins won it and while perhaps hastening Rex Ryan's potential firing they improved their possession of the AFC's 6th seed......

.......while the Cardinals knocked the NFC West champs out of the playoff byes with an amazing 34-31 win.

Meanwhile the Ravens and Broncos fell out of the playoff hunt.   While the Ravens fought hard in a back-and-forth affair at Pittsburgh - the Steelers, now AFC North champs, won for only the fourth time in the last thirteen meetings - the Broncos were never in it at Kansas City and suffered the ultimate embarrassment when Dontari Poe threw a touchdown.    The confluence of events secured the playoffs for the Dolphins with their season finale against the Patriots next week.

By beating the Seahawks, the Cardinals put the Falcons in the #2 seed in the NFC after the Falcons crushed the Panthers, leaving their season in ruins with one game left.   The regression of the Panthers has been mystifying and also comes amid a bizarre rumor that the Rams want to sign Panthers coach Ron Rivera.

The weirdest moment came when line judge Sarah Thomas - part of Jeff Triplette's crew - got run over on the sideline.  

The most disgusting loss of the weekend was yet another failure by the Detroit Lions against a quality opponent, the kind of opponent Matthew Stafford needs to beat yet every year fails to do - at one point he was 3-40 against quality opponents  and one offhand hesitates to think the ratio has in any way improved - and the result this time was a 42-21 implosion against the 13-2 Dallas Cowboys and the prospect of having to beat the Green Bay Packers - something Stafford has done a miserable three times in his eight seasons in the NFL - just to make the playoffs.

While the Redskins suddenly have their playoff fate in front of them after a rout of the Bears.   They can make the playoffs by beating the Giants next week



In all a LOT of people - and a number of teams - all went down hard on Christmas weekend.   And the end result is the playoffs are around the corner.