NASCAR's NA18D Races

With a decision apparently coming down that NASCAR will phase in its NA18D racecar package - a restrictor plate, larger spoiler, and ducts in the nose blasting air out the front wheelwells - for some fourteen or more races in 2019, a look at those races to date that have run this package -

 The first race to see this package was the 2017 Brickyard Xfinity 250 and it proved a spirited race won by William Byron

The 2018 All Star Race at Charlotte was the first Winston Cup race to run this package and it opened a lot of eyes by restoring the draft at Charlotte, where it had been a major fact as late as the 2000 National 500

Pocono's Xfinity 250 was next; it was dominated by Kyle Busch but also saw a huge battle to win Stage Two - history has shown the more teams work with this package then they catch back up to someone like Busch

Rain shortened the Michigan Xfinity 250 but the racing was competitive, and the increase in lead changes at Michigan with this package was noted all weekend

The 2018 Lillys 250 may have been more aggressive than 2017's running, with noticeably more blocking and highlighted by a four-abreast battle to win Stage One.    



The package by any objective measure has been a success, yet has caused pointless controversy and illustrated the disconnect of some drivers from racing reality.   There is no credible reason not to run this package as the universal racing package. 

None.

NASCAR, make the right call and speed up implementation of this package.   Make The Draft Great Again.



UPDATE October 2: A modified form of this package will come into the sport in 2019, with a smaller tapered spacer rather than a restrictor plate.

Pocono And NASCAR's New Rule Sagacity Debate

Here's what you need to know about race drivers as frauds and hypocrites - Kyle Busch griped about the restrictor plate-draft duct package being phased into NASCAR "It's boring as (hell)."   Then in the Pocono 400 he screamed "Can't f---king pass," this with aeroclean bodies and unrestricted power - and resultant superior throttle response.

It is all part of what is becoming the raging rule sagacity debate in the sport - the restrictor plate-draft duct package first used in the 2017 Lillys Xfinity 250 at Indianapolis, then used in the All-Star Race and open at Charlotte, and now debuting at Pocono and later Michigan for the Xfinity series.   The racing with this package has seen a palpable increase in passing with Ontario-style passing and repassing at The Brickyard and at Charlotte there was passing and drafting reminiscent of 1970s-era Charlotte racing as well as reminiscent of circa-1993 Daytona racing.   In its debut at Pocono, the package took a distant back seat to Kyle Busch's annihilation of the field; he routed the field in Stage 1, got a penalty so he had to pass the field while Paul Menard got into an eye-popping two-by-two push-draft slugfest to win Stage 2, then stormed to the lead on the outside of the Tunnel Turn on the ensuing restart and ran off.    He then flunked postrace inspection.

The Paul Menard car-cam view of the Pocono Green 250 - the fight for the lead swelled into an epic in the final lap of Stage 2

The plate package was easily the talk of Saturday and also in prerace for Sunday.   Word has now circulated that NASCAR will run the plate package at more Winston Cup Monster Energy series races in 2018, with scuttlebutt identifying potential sites as Kentucky, New Hampshire, and Indianapolis; also supposedly considered are Pocono's Summer 400 and Michigan's Yankee 400 weekend with both tracks seeing the package used in the Busch/Xfinity series.

NASCAR's Director of Aerodynamics Simulation and Design, Eric Jacuzzi, issued an apology for the perceived failure of the plate package at Pocono (curiously deleted) -

"Disappointing day today (Saturday June 2). Not enough cornering ability to make the package work through One and Three. Was worth a shot. We'll make it up to you at Michigan next week."

Eric Jacuzzi need not be hard on himself, for objectively the plate package did indeed work at Pocono.   The four-car draft battle where all four raced side-by-side all the way around the track - including all the way through the Tunnel Turn, something considered impossible even when in 1995 Tim Steele and Mike Wallace did so for the lead on some three separate laps in the ARCA Syracuse 150 at Pocono - indicated it in fact does work well.   And the more teams work on this package the better they will make it.

Some historical perspective is needed.   In 1990 Dale Earnhardt was in essence unpassable on the plate tracks - indeed the common theme among rival drivers was the draft no longer worked, especially when Earnhardt was out front.   Teams worked on their cars and engines, especially in the November-March open-season on testing allowed by NASCAR back then, while NASCAR made a spoiler enlargement to boost the power of the draft, and in 1991 the plate races erupted in memorable competition in all four races, especially that July's Diehard 500.

Elsewhere commentary on the plate package has been animated and after Pocono came the usual nonsensical criticisms that NASCAR needs to drop these big tracks for "more short tracks," never mind Pocono and other superspeedways are superior venues in competition, market strength, etc.   The gripe has come in some circles that "short tracks don't need aero packages to make good racing," a claim belied by the fact fendered short track racecar classes run downforce-style bodies with big clear-vu spoilers, some form of engine restriction, and bias-ply tires - and even the Modifieds on the Tour as well as local Mods also run some form of engine restriction and bias-ply tires.   In other words short tracks need "special packages" because the model of low-downforce aeroclean bodies with unrestricted power and radial tires simply doesn't work.

Kyle Busch's runaway in the Pocono Green 250 brings to mind his dominance of the 2017 Overtons Truck 150 at Pocono  - a racing vehicle package that is a good approximation of the plate package used in 2018's 250 - until his wreck on a mid-race restart.  It is an indication he's figured out how to engineer his racecars for this track like few others have, though his postrace penalty in 2018 casts some shadow.


There is also the angle of the 400 - what if that race had run the plate-draft duct package?   As it was, Martin Truex's semi-upset win showed Kyle Busch and erstwhile race dominator Kevin Harvick weren't the duopoly this race seemed to have for so long.   One thus suspects the Menard-Custer-Allgaier-Cindric epic in the 250 would have been replicated and then some by the Cup guys in the 400 if that race had run the plate package.

So it's become that for now every race will be some kind of forum on this plate package given its success at opening up passing.   It also is a raging discussion amid a noticeable surge in enthusiasm for the sport in recent races, with widespread fan enthusiam for Martin Truex at Pocono in clear evidence as he surged to the win.

NASCAR thus can see something it has lacked for so long - a positive outlook for the future.

What's Wrong With NASCAR Driver Opposition To Draft Duct Racecar Package

Note: originally published June 2, it has been updated on June 4:

Jeff Gluck spoke to Bubba Wallace, Alex Bowman, Ryan Blaney, and Christopher Bell about NASCAR's restrictor plate-draft duct package used at the All Star Race and All Star Open and they expressed "concerns" about greater use of this package.  Their concerns can be summarized thusly - the cars were "easy to drive" and "you want them to be more difficult to drive."

It's an old argument against this kind of racing and it's deeply flawed.   Kaz Grala offered a great perspective -  "We're all just biased because we like to have more control in our hands."   It's an insight into the narrowness of focus by so many drivers. The larger issue - define "more control in our hands."   It is simple fact that the races with the most horsepower and highest level of throttle response, braking, and acceleration have seen the lowest incidence of passing.

The argument made here brings to mind how Carl Edwards forever pushed for lower downforce, and as Gluck notes, his opinion has now been discredited by the racing at Charlotte and Indianapolis.


Matt Weaver of Autoweek expanded the argument before Pocono in a silly missive claiming the sport's identity is "on the line" with expanded use of the plate-draft duct package. He rehashes driver quotes while ignoring the gross hypocrisy showcased in Kyle Busch's post-Pocono "Can't f--king pass!" radio rant during the Pocono 400.

"In a true sporting environment the best teams win.......I think that advocating for the 'All Star package' threatens the very idea of motorsports as a concept."

No, Matt Weaver, it doesn't.   Contrary to Christopher Bell, racing is not about pushing the limit of the tire, it's about pushing your car into the lead and retaking the lead when challenged for it.   Making this package more common to the sport doesn't sacrifice "sporting integrity" - which Weaver doesn't credibly define or seem to understand.   "Does it really want to make over half its races just short of a random number generator?  These are supposed to be the best stock car drivers in the world, not the luckiest or most fortunate."   Yet Weaver cannot cite examples to buttress this argument.

The reality that making the cars underpowered and overgripped relative to everything else and making the draft more important is what increases passing now seems to be sinking into the sport more and more; reading the scuttlebutt the consensus seems clear this package will be integrated into the sport more and more, perhaps beginning at Indianapolis in September with the Xfinity series already running it there and elsewhere.

That some drivers still oppose the concept stems from their own myopia about "having control."   Cars difficult to drive is not the same as difficult to race, and in the two races to date run with the restrictor plate-draft duct package - 2017 Lillys Xfinity 250 at Indianapolis and now the All Star Race B and A-mains - the racing saw prolific passing and drafting, which by any objective competition measure is more, not less, difficult.

The further argument made is that restrictor plate draft/pack racing produces "random results," as though a driver against his will is thrown into the lead by the draft.   Such a scenario of course does not exist, which makes the argument foolish.

In the finish of the decade David Ragan won the 2013 Winston 500 - some think this somehow illegitimate because he hasn't followed up with another win, but that's irrelevant.   The reality as shown here is HE made the moves to win, HE earned the win, there is nothing remotely "random" about it.   That loudmouthed Carl Edwards got outdrafted by Ragan makes it all the more delicious


The bottom line remains the argument against this restrictor plate-draft duct package doesn't work - NASCAR wasted some twenty years fighting against downforce and nowhere did the concept ever succeed - not in 1998, not in  the John Darby era running the garage, not with the ill-advised car Of Tomorrow concept.   What NASCAR would have seen if it had figured out the restrictor plate-draft duct package in 1997 is easy to imagine - far more lead changes and far better racing.

And the argument seems to betray a myopia of history, for what transpired in the two plate-draft duct races run to date was as old-school as one can find -

The racing with the plate-draft duct package brings back the true old-school of NASCAR - the power within what the track and cars can handle and the draft being more important.   This is what built racing in general and NASCAR in particular - and bringing the draft to the other superspeedways is a necessity and thus an opportunity.

UPDATE:  The Pocono Green 250 debuted the package at Pocono and it turned into the most graphic runaway win in a while.   Kyle Busch annihilated the field, breaking the draft with little difficulty, though he had to execute a highside pass into the lead in the Tunnel Turn.   A penalty at the end of Stage One put Busch in the back and the battle for Stage Two was a close chase until on the final lap Paul Menard challenged for the lead and the battle became an eye-popping two-abreast sidedraft war all the way around, including all the way through the Tunnel Turn, something we haven't seen since Mike Wallace and Tim Steele raced all the way through the Tunnel on some three separate laps in the 1995 ARCA Syracuse 150.   

Busch's runaway was curiously seen in some circles as a failure of the package when in reality it showed how well engineered his car was - one also recalls Busch dominating the Pocono Truck 150 (the closest approximation of this package) in 2017 before crashing out at the start of the third stage.  Things got curiouser and curiouser when Busch's #18 flunked postrace - reportedly with an illegally raked left front fender.

A key angle is mentioned in Chase Elliott's postrace comment that the package works better as the cars get wide open, which they struggled to get at Pocono but which we expect the teams to iron out the more they work on the cars with this package.  

The NASCAR Fall-Star Race And Continued Rules Struggle

The expectations for the first NASCAR All-Star Race under Monster Energy tutelage were high, especially given that it marked the 25th anniversary of the first All-Star Race run at night, a race whose brutal finish is naturally still celebrated.

The All-Star Race was perhaps the least competitive running since segmenting was changed after Davey Allison led wire to wire in 1991.   The All-Star Open wasn't much better until things got hairy at the finish.  Eric Jones' ill-advised attempt to blast into the lead by hammering the grass killed his night.


Post-race reaction among fans and media was negative - typified by Autoweek's piece advocating taking the race away from Charlotte and running it somewhere else, such as Bristol or Iowa or a road course.   Given the worthlessness of road racing, running an all-star race on one can never work, nor are short tracks anything resembling the answer.   


It reflects the continued universal frustration at the lack of passing on the bigger ovals - a plague that has nothing to do with the track layouts and everything to do with racecars with too much horsepower, too little grip, and no drafting effect being generated - and Goodyear's much-hyped options with soft or hard tires proved laughably irrelevant, perhaps the funniest example of how NASCAR and fans got hoist with their own petard after they believed their own propaganda about cutting downforce and thus improving passing.


A report on a proposed 2018 rule package suggests the Cup cars will run a conventional airdam instead of a splitter - Eric Jones' Charlotte crash that tore his splitter to bits would seem to add credence to this - would remove the sharkfin run for years now, increase the spoiler from 2.5 inches to four, and remove side skirts to lessen sideforce.   The hope is to reduce corner speeds, though given history I'm not holding breath that it will do that.   The spoiler-airdam proposal seems to make sense, though I'd prefer a substantially larger spoiler; the history of the larger spoiler has generally been positive for competitive racing, it's been spoiler reductions that have been a bollox.   I'm intrigued how removing the sideskirts affects things, for the sideforce issue has shown itself to be serious in the Truck Series.


The rule package that oddly has gone completely under the radar (outside of a reference on NASCAR's Sirius/XM radio morning drive show)  has been the Xfinity package to be run at the Brickyard in July. The use of drag ducts on the Xfinity cars attacks the issue of the weakness of the draft for the cars, and certainly the Cup cars need all the draft they can get pretty much regardless of track - it is thus baffling that Cup cars haven't tested drag ducts.   The issue of horsepower has also gone unaddressed; the reality is the Trucks are the only of the three major touring series that has gotten horsepower under control; the Xfinity series has been okay as far as controlling horsepower; Cup has completely ignored the fact horsepower needs to be controlled, and seriously so.  


As far as individual racer performances went, the lack of passing makes gauging the drivers trickier - Kyle Busch's win was a milestone for him given he's never won a race in a Cup car at Charlotte before.   Kyle Larson was probably the strongest car given he led the most laps, except he never led again after the third segment started.    The All-Star Open was more interesting given the hairiness of the finish, but among those who advanced from it only Chase Elliott was relevant to anything at the end of the main race; he struggled and fell to Daniel Suarez in the Open while Austin Dillon finished second, this as it appeared Elliott would just breeze into the lead and be done with it.    Also noteworthy was Regan Smith, who ran respectably in Richard Petty's #43 in his first race subbing for injured Aric Almirola, out for two months and maybe three.  


So Charlotte's 2017 NASCAR week gets off to a terrible start.   One hopes it can get better.

Why Should NASCAR Have A Yellow Line Rule?

NASCAR's yellow line rule for Daytona and Talladega - where passing below the line is ruled illegal - has been in place since the Winston 500 of 2001, when NASCAR implemented it following the Busch Series 300 and a loud protest by Jimmy Spencer.

At least that's the "official" version; the more underground explanation is it was a bone tossed to drivers amid a rumored mass park-out in the 500 to protest NASCAR's roof blade aero package; said parkout never happened.

But the question remains - is it really wise to have a yellow-line rule?





Tony Stewart passes several cars below the yellow line at the start of the final lap

After getting drafted back to about 13th in the 1996 Daytona 500 we see Dale Earnhardt passing in what would be today declared below the yellow line

When Earnhardt and Ernie Irvan battle side by side for the lead Terry Labonte blows past them both by diving below what today is the yellow line





The wild finish to the 1999 Daytona 500 saw plenty of passing below what is today the yellow line

Then there is the most famous example - Junior passing on the apron of Turn Three in 2003


As seen in these examples and also by such dubious yellow-line penalties as Tony Stewart in 2001 (Firecracker 400) and Regan Smith in the 2008 Diehard 500, one has to dispute the sagacity of having a yellow line rule - one is hard pressed to see where it serves any purpose.

At Talladega And Elsewhere When Will NASCAR Figure It Out?

NASCAR declared Elliott Sadler the winner - even though objectively he isn't




And therein lay one of the fundamental problems NASCAR has that it seems incapable of addressing.   In the Sparks Energy 300 at Talladega Elliott Sadler was declared winner because the yellow flew for Joey Logano's wreck and NASCAR determined through scoring loops that somehow he was the leader.   Why the yellow even flew at that circumstance is a question without much of an answer - saying it was for safety ignores that the leaders crashed anyway.

Moreover, has NASCAR ever given a credible reason for freezing the field when the caution comes out?  They implemented that rule because two or three cars at New Hampshire in 2003 sped up to put someone a lap down with Dale Jarrett crashed down the frontstretch - rather than hold those specific drivers accountable for a questionable decision, NASCAR decided to change the rule.  

The issue of letting cars race to the line has been a longstanding one where NASCAR has demonstrated the safety rationale for freezing the field is a fraud in such finishes as the 2004 Daytona 250 and the 2007 500.   The entire concept has done nothing for safety; it's put the wrong winner into victory lane on several occasions. 

Even when the right winner was seen, such as in the ARCA General Tire 200 the day before, there was no safety reason for not racing to the line.  

The rule needs to go, period.   Mike Joy in 1990 in Stock Car Racing Magazine proffered a sensible alternative - a red light rule when track conditions make racing to the line dubious - basically throw the red and yellow flags and lights on to make the cars slow down without racing in such a circumstance and revert to the last completed lap for the running order.  

It created needless controversy over what had been a competitive 300-miler for the Xfinity cars at Talladega.   NASCAR's absurd no-superdrafting rule bit Aric Almirola and Brendan Gaughn early on with a pass-through penalty and also once again needlessly stifled passing - best illustrated by the futile sidedraft battle by Joey Logano, Ryan Reid, et al that never got above fourth in tahe race'smiddle stages before Reid's crash set up the frantic final 25 or so laps.   The entire fiasco also ruined a superb effort by Brennan Poole, who took the flag first despite hitting the wall at the stripe with another car.  

It of course started with Logano and swerving with Sadler that sent him into the wall and a vicious semi-T-bone hit, and if you remember such controversies as Irwindale in 2009 that have followed Logano through his career one can feel a bit of poetic justice at work.  

The controversy also puts a damper on Sadler, the official winner for the first time in some two years.   Always a classy type, Sadler shouldn't have to defend himself for winning at Talladega; he wasn't the issue here, NASCAR's judgement is the issue.  


*****


A delicious subplot to this Winston 500 weekend developed with Robbie Allison.   The son of Davey Allison and grandson of Bobby, Robbie won at Anderson Speedway, his first race win.   It's too premature for him to hit the superovals, but that career path looks certain down the road.  

The Nightmare For NASCAR Of DiBenedetto At Bristol

Christopher Olmstead authors a solid piece showing how the strong run of Matt DiBenedetto at Bristol graphically illustrates NASCAR racing's very serious resource gap and resulting competition gap.

Martinsville And Popularity Decline

The 2016 Virginia 500 was contested at Martinsville Speedway and Kyle Busch led over 350 laps in an oddly tranquil 500-lapper, this after he won the Truck 250 that saw some twelve yellows. Kyle Busch's win did not produce much in the way of widespread attention paid to the race - the Sports Media Watch site reported the race's ratings declined yet again, a pattern for NASCAR in this season as well as recent seasons past.

Some blame was laid on the fact the race was telecast on FOX Sports' primary cable outlet FS1 - the former Speed TV - but with the proliferation of cable channels the allegation that a substantial percentage of fans did not have access to the race does not strike one as plausible.

The sport's popularity decline has been a long time coming and turning it around will be a long time coming - and it requires greater honesty on the part of NASCAR and its varied participants.  The competition level is not sufficient.   Though the low downforce rule package is promoted every race - Tom Jensen's after-action piece on the FOX Sports website repeats the lobby - the blunt truth remains it is not working and will not work.   For all the praise drivers have for how the cars feel the reality has shown in blown tires, aeropush, a one-lane surface for Martinsville, and no improvement in lead changes - this package is merely a repeat of the same mistakes NASCAR has kept making for nearly twenty years.


*****


For all that the Martinsville race did offer some interesting takes.   Kyle Busch's win was typical and as such eminently forgettable even with a pathetic rumpswab of a puff piece by Nate Ryan on the NBC Sports NASCAR page.    Just behind him, though, we saw some encouraging finishes by A.J. Allmendinger, Austin Dillon, and Kyle Larson.   Whether they can sustain these finishes remains to be seen given the lack of follow-up from them in the past.   Allmendinger has shown from his debut in Richard Petty's car in 2009 that he has the fight - he fights to get to the front, something not that many drivers do.    Dillon and Larson have been much-touted young guns who haven't advanced in the sport to this point; more finishes like this and maybe then the potential seen in them will finally mean wins - and first-time winners is something the sport hasn't seen in nearly two years now.

Dillon's RCR teammate Paul Menard led ten laps, surprising given he's never given reason for expectations to be all that hot, and finished in the top-ten.

It was a typical Kevin Harvick race - he led with some authority and wasn't around to make a win out of it - he didn't even finish in the top ten.   The same was true for another Martinsville race for Matt Kenseth.

It wasn't much to cheer about for Ryan Blaney or Chase Elliott, the two rookies producing a mediocre effort and finishing at the bottom of the second ten. 

Greg Biffle hasn't had anything to cheer about for awhile now, and 12th at Martinsville merely illustrated how poorly the Roush fleet is running right now with no sign of a turnaround.


So it goes with Texas and then a two-week short track surge before the Winston 500 at Talladega coming up.  

Fontana and The Neverending Politics Of Competition Rule Packages

California Speedway's reputation for NASCAR racing was considered low for a long time due to undercompetitive races there from its beginning, but the 2013 California 400 changed all that with a stunning final ten lap battle for the lead ending in a hard Denny Hamlin crash, a spectacular highside three wide pass by Kyle Busch, and the thwarting of Joey Logano in his debut season with Penske Racing.  

2013's 400 was amazing, and 2014's running also saw spirited racing for the lead, which made 2016's running with NASCAR's neo-5&5 Rule and a softer tire from Goodyear among the more anticipated events of the racing calendar.   But as Jimmie Johnson enters the Easter weekend with a late restart win over Kevin Harvick, the sport has to reexamine quite a bit after this weekend.

The weekend began with the Cal 300 for the Xfinity Series and the most bizarre finish in decades as Kyle Busch blew a tire, but several contenders ran out of gas, except Austin Dillon as he sqeezed through a hole around a Busch blocking attempt for the win.   The Cal 300 also saw something Fontana and other tracks have long needed - push-drafting, as the JGR Toyotas and Kyle Larson engaged in at least two efforts at push-drafting down Fontana's sweeping trioval, Larson even getting the lead for a moment thanks to a strong push-draft.

Come the 400 the racing up front in spots was good as well, but the issue that plagued the race, having also popped up in the Saturday event, was a very high incidence of tire failure throughout the field;  Kyle Busch's late tire failure set up the GWC-restart that won the race for Johnson when it appeared Kevin Harvick would waltz away while Kyle Larson blasted the inside SAFR barrier after a tire failure.

The incidence of tire failures - coming a week after numerous tire failures at Phoenix - was such that Goodyear actually had to address it during the race in the media; we got the usual "aggressive setup" cliché from varied analysts, but it begged the question that is seemingly never asked - why cannot Goodyear engineer these tires to where the teams don't have to put in "aggressive" setups?

Not that Goodyear hasn't gotten it right as far as forgiving, raceable tires go - in the radial era spirited battles such as the World 600s of 1993, 1995, and 1998, and the National 500 of 2000 that saw 47 official lead changes despite Goodyear incompetence that led to a tire shortage that weekend, not to mention memorable Pocono races in 1993, '95, '96, 2001, and 2009-10, Atlanta in the 1999-2002 period where four of its races combined to average 32 official lead changes a race, and the 1999 Yankee 400 at Michigan contested with a higher-stagger tire and thus witnessing a spirited fight for the lead in the final twenty-two laps, have all indicated a tire that racers were able to race hard on - and shown more recently with the Truck Series and several memorable races on intermediate speedways the last five years.

But the radial era has seen much incidence of "aggressive setups" and trouble as a result; the first famous such incident was the 1992 Virginia 500 at Martinsville where broken axles knocked out numerous contenders - the result of rearend cambering to get a bigger tire footprint onto the surface; NASCAR had banned parts to make the cambered rearend work, citing costs, to where team owner Larry McClure commented "If NASCAR keeps trying to save money we'll be out of business." 

The incident has been repeated, albeit in different form, at numerous races ever since, and it has been especially pointed during NASCAR's frequent campaigns to cut downforce, the 2004-7 period most notably seeing multiple spoiler reductions, tire changes, and swaybar changes, and no improvement in passing, to go with several bouts of "aggressive setup" fiascos.   It of course continued with the ill-fated Car Of Tomorrow.  

So we ask again -  can not Goodyear engineer a tire that is forgiving and raceable enough where teams do not need to run "aggressive" setups?   The Erik Jones-Kasey Kahne sidedraft epic at Charlotte in the Trucks in 2015 - that tire clearly allowed them to fight for the lead; can not Goodyear engineer a tire so the Xfinity and Cup drivers can race likewise, and do so with some significant frequency?


*****


That seemingly no NASCAR journalist asks such questions speaks of the decline of journalism that is covering the sport.   Veteran NASCAR scribe Mike Mulhern addresses the tire issue recently in advocating that teams be given three or four different compounds - soft, hard, intermediate, etc.   Not only that, give teams different staggers - as longtime crewman Scott Cluka recently noted, the art of staggering tires was taken out with the switch to radials.


*****


But the issue goes a lot further.   Part of the issue for Fontana is the worn-out surface, worn to the point it seems to be getting less safe to race on.   Drivers have long liked this worn out surface because of the surge in multiple grooves, but Fontana racing in the past on much fresher asphalt has seen some spirited competition, and a better tire would certainly open up more grooves on fresh asphalt.  Having to pit every 35 or so laps for fresh tires becomes expensive and frankly overkill, plus the idea of tire management really is not competitively appealing  - competition never means managing anything.

The weekend, like seemingly the entire season, was treated in media coverage almost as a referendum on NASCAR's low downforce package and as usual one looked in vain for any dissent from the view that low downforce has opened up passing and produced better racing.   High incidence of tire problems was a feature of NASCAR's past wars against downforce and we're seeing it again in 2016, meaning the same mistakes made by NASCAR in the past are producing the same results. 

The blunt truth remains NASCAR has seen close finishes in 2016 not because of low downforce, but in spite of it - a late yellow was needed for the photo finish at Phoenix and another late yellow allowed Johnson to storm past Kevin Harvick for the win.   Robert Barker's piece a few weeks back showed the futility of cutting downforce and also of soft tires, yet one would think NASCAR would figure out not to repeat the same mistakes.  


*****


The bottom line remains NASCAR should not need worn-out asphalt et al to see better competition; everyone involved need to reexamine things because the racing has been decent, but it has seen a lot of trouble, trouble racing shouldn't have.

From Atlanta To Vegas

NASCAR now heads to Las Vegas Motor Speedway with Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson the winners at the Cup level so far and Vegas native Kyle Busch the point leader. The Vegas race comes amid continuing discussion of the Atlanta 500 and the low downforce package NASCAR ran. Most pieces on that race and the rule package merely regurgitate driver praise of the package, with Matt Weaver of Autoweek claiming it harkens back to old school racing, or "It was NASCAR as it was meant to be."

It was? 

A more sober analysis comes from Jared Turner, as aero tightness was brought back by this retro-5&5 Rule, a fact Kurt Busch noted afterward. Indeed, Matt Weaver's idea of "NASCAR as it was meant to be" would seem to be disproved by Atlanta's competitive apex as a quad-oval, which has been throughout NASCAR's downforce era, in races such as the 2002 Atlanta 500, the finish of the 2001 Atlanta 500, the 2000 Atlanta 500, or the 1999 Dixie 500, the most competitive Atlanta race (38 official lead changes) since 1982. All of these races (averaging 32 lead changes per race) came with high downforce, and the 2001-2 period was contested with a much harder tire, not to mention much fresher asphalt, making nonsense of Carl Edwards' statement "don't ever pave this place because it's the perfect racetrack."  Keep in mind NASCAR restarted its campaign to cut downforce at the start of 2004; Matt Weaver is quite wrong when he writes, "It starts with the sanctioning body for its willingness to reverse course and remove downforce from the cars after years of piling it on in the first place." 

Busch and others also noted the lousy condition of Atlanta's pavement, and the notion you can't race on fresh asphalt has never been believable (best shown last year at Charlotte with a high downforce race). This is where Vegas, with better asphalt, will give some answers about this downforce package we may not have gotten at Atlanta. 

We may also get some answers to whether car counts have been hurt by NASCAR's charter system, for it remains striking (and encouraging) that the NASCAR media took the sanctioning body to task for the low car count at Atlanta. The unofficial entry list updated March 1 shows 39 entries, another short field and thus a discouraging sign for this charter system.

Another discouraging sign for NASCAR - Atlanta's TV ratings were "its lowest overnight since FOX acquired rights" with a 27% drop, this according to the JAYSKI NASCAR page.  

Such trends don't beckon well as NASCAR looks for a new title sponsor for the Winston Cup series.   They also don't beckon well for the remainder of the 2016 season, a season that was supposed to be better.

As for the Vegas 400 the Hendrick and JGR juggernauts are the obvious early favorites, with Penske Racing curiously quiet so far.   Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch are the torch-carriers for the lameduck Chevy fleet of Stewart-Haas but curiously haven't shown enough to outright win the race even as they lead more than enough to take them seriuously as contenders for wins.   That appears to be it as far as favorites right now.  



UPDATE, MARCH 14:  With the Vegas and Phoenix races NASCAR has had three races with low downforce and the result has been the same - no improvement in the racing. At Phoenix the MRN call featured commentary supporting the low downforce package by Rusty Wallace and drag racer Ron Capps and Kevin Harvick said his photo-finish win over Carl Edwards at Phoenix - set up after a late yellow in a race where the last lap was the only time he was challenged - was a product of the low downforce package. That such lobbying has intensified for an established rule is curious, but also an indication of defensiveness within NASCAR - this as crew chief Robert Barker offers a lengthy analysis of why Goodyear can't bring a soft tire to the races, an analysis that helps illustrate that NASCAR's war against downforce is self-defeating.

Atlanta 500 Winners And Losers

So the 2016 Atlanta 500 has been run.   A look at the race's winners and losers -


WINNERS -


Hendrick Motorsports - After taking it on the chin at Daytona by JGR's Toyotas, Hendrick's honchos roared back to finish 1-2 and also eighth thanks to a nice rebound by Chase Elliott.   Kasey Kahnre remains the black sheep of the Hendrick fleet.

Half of Stewart-Haas Racing - Kurt Busch and Kevin Harvick combined to lead 193 laps and finish fourth and sixth.   Harvick's gag on the final restart was the killer of the race.

Young guns - The young guns had zero ammo at Daytona.  At Atlanta Elliott, Ricky Stenhouse, and Austin Dillon made a respectable effort and result.

Martin Truex - He led 34 laps and it's obvious that team fits better with Toyota than it did with Chevrolet.


The list of winners is pretty slim; the list of losers isn't -

LOSERS -


The short field - Striking was the high incidence of reportage critical of NASCAR for the shortness of the field, with blame given the new Charter system.   For a media that has been easily the most lapdog of all the sports medias, the NASCAR media's shots at NASCAR's Charter system was surprising - and very refreshing.   Lower car counts is never a good thing; it is a sign of declining value.   It's certainly not irreversible - but NASCAR needs to work to reverse this trend.


NASCAR's Retro 5&5 Rule  -  Drivers after the race kept saying "it was fun, it was fun."   But the most fun rules package remains the one where they can blast into the lead and they can fight back and retake it when someone else blasts into the lead - the more lead changes, the better for everyone.   This Atlanta 500 had a couple of spots of dicing up front, notably the two-lap dice between Harvick and Martin Truex, but other than that there wasn't much - certainly nothing like the apex of the track's history as a 1.54-mile quad-oval - 1999-2002 with four of its most competitive races, notably the 2001-2 Atlanta 500s contested with high downforce and a much-harder tire than used today.  

With this low-downforce package we also saw a return of the dirtiest words in racing, the condition from which nothing good can ever arrive - aero tight.   The biggest surprise was the lack of yellows in the 500, doubly surprising given the tire mini-fiascos endured in the Xfinity-Truck doubleheader on Saturday.  

People oversold low downforce at Kentucky and Darlington last year and it showed again it's not the way to go, no matter how much fun drivers professed to have with it.


Matt Kenseth - The pit penalty after leading 47 laps left him 19th at the end.  

Ganassi Racing - Jamie McMurray and Kyle Larson were on milk cartons the whole race long.

Penske Racing - Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano did salvage productive finishes - ninth for Brad and twelfth for Logano - but they're hardly the power they were last season so far.

RCR and Roush-Fenway - Six cars, one top-ten in this race between them.   Even with that Roush's bunch did show some notable improvement.

No, NASCAR's 2016 5&5 Rule Won't Work

As the 2016 Winston Cup media tour proceeds we've had several pieces lauding the low downforce package for the Cup cars to be used this coming season, from the likes of USA Today (here from latter October of 2015) and from Carl Edwards during the 2016 Media Tour as he laid out three reasons why the low downforce package will be better. Tony Stewart also touched on this in a Dave Moody interview critical of Brian France's aloofness from garage areas - at Pocono in 2015 Stewart says Brian France "gave me a hard time" for lobbying for lower downforce as Gene Stefanyshyn lobbied for higher downforce.

What is always missed in these discussions is that history has already proven low downforce doesn't work, a fact Stewart seemed oblivious to in his shots at Stefanyshyn's racing credentials during his interview, illustrating that credentials doesn't always mean command of the facts.  The first version of the 5&5 Rule debuted in 1998.   It was designed to lower downforce and thus reduce corner speeds - the rationale cited was the same then as it is now - and increase passing, it accomplished neither, to where late that season Terry Labonte publicly stated the package had made the racing boring, and NASCAR dropped it in November.  

Downforce increased.   In August-September 1999 Goodyear made a tire change to a compound designed to battle Hoosier in Winston West racing; it had more stagger and debuted at Michigan.

Late in that 1999 Yankee 400 the battle for the lead swelled into a spirited nose to nose fight reminiscent of Michigan of old - i.e. of the bias-ply tire era.


Another heated battle for the lead developed at the Delaware 400 at Dover that September.  But by 2001-3 Goodyear was running a much harder tire compound.  In 2004, after heavy lobbying from Rusty Wallace and after John Darby took over the garage area, NASCAR tried the 5&5 Rule again and doggedly kept it, via multiple spoiler reductions to go with some three Darby-mandated swaybar changes and resultant changes by Goodyear to tires - and it all accomplished nothing.   The COT then debuted in 2007 as a low downforce concept - and failed.  

Drivers lauded NASCAR after the races at Kentucky and Darlington because they ran low downforce - yet passing didn't improve.  Neither race stood out for anything - Kentucky didn't approach any kind of record for lead changes in 2015 - it had thirteen official and nine unofficial; in 2011 it had twenty official.   Darlington saw 24 lead changes in 2015, not exactly a significant upgrade over the 21 lead changes of 2011's running with high downforce or even 2014's running that saw 22.  

And criticism of the high downforce package used at Indianapolis and Michigan in the summer of 2015 ignored the real problems with passing - the cars still have too much horsepower (by well over 300) and the tire used simply isn't sufficient for grip; the fact the cars never stalled out in traffic as opposed to with low downforce ought to be recognized as a manifest positive.   Contrast this with the Truck series and the epic Kasey Kahne-Erik Jones sidedraft battle in 2015 with a tire that gripped well enough that they could lean hard and fight thusly - it raced more like old bias-plies than radials, notorious for needing to catch the car instead of race it.   The Trucks are also high downforce vehicles.  

What remains the truth is that underpowered and overgripped racecars have produced the most lead changes, be it Indycar or Indy Lights on the superovals, the NASCAR Modifieds at New Hampshire, the Trucks on big tracks, and in restrictor plate racing - the 80 lead changes at the Cal Indy 500 at Fontana would not have been possible with lower downforce; neither would the Erik Jones-Kasey Kahne shootout last May.

Making the same mistakes made in 1998, 2004, and beyond won't make the racing better, and NASCAR needs to know better - still.  Racing is about lead changes, not throttle control.  It's about not having to catch a racecar, not about struggling to handle. 


A superb insight is provided in a question asked by veteran NASCAR writer Mike Mulhern - what is the over-under on the first rule change for 2016?

Why NFL Play Has Declined - And How To Fix it

The NFL's 2015 season has had good moments, but the quality of play is widely seen as poor this season, even as TV ratings and attendances continue to surge. It shows not just in penalties, drops, and missed tackles, it's shown in scoring. 2012 and 2013 had a slew of wildly competitive games - in 2012 we saw thrillers such as the Bucs at the NY Giants, a slew of wild games in Week Three, New England and Buffalo's two shootouts, Thanksgiving's three epics - one of them admittedly an epic of comedy - to go with the Niners vs. Patriots Superbowl preview that wasn't, and the epic Ravens-Broncos playoff shootout and the Lights Out Superbowl at New Orleans; 2013 then followed with its own litany of amazing games. But since then the quality of play has declined, shown in a curious dearth of high-scoring back-and-forth shootouts as listed above.  Not that there haven't been good games this season - the Rams' win over the Seahawks, the Chargers' comeback win over the Lions, the Ravens' bitter losses to the Raiders, Bengals, and Browns, the back-and-forth fight between the Colts and Titans in Week Three stand out so far - but the concern over quality of play is warranted.

The Wall Street Journal piece examines reasons for the decline of quality of play; they are worth looking at.

The league has been unlucky with quarterback injuries, notably Ben Roethlisberger and Titans rookie sensation Marcus Mariota.   Quarterback play has been spotty, but the piece's assertion that it is because teams are passing more while throwing shorter distances is dubious.   Throwing shorter is throwing smarter, and the piece cites Joe Flacco as an example of a quarterback throwing shorter passes - an assertion at odds with his history and his game that emphasizes deeper throws off his back foot - the real source of his wild inconsistency, the fact he's forcing throws instead of playing smart.  A similar issue is now being seen with Andrew Luck; some important eyes with the Colts were opened when Matt Hasselback started two games and showed greater accuracy with his short passing game; the Colts have tried to dial back Luck's recklessness with the ball, but he regressed after a promising start against the Patriots that ended in a dismal second half of that game for him.

The piece nails it when it notes limits on practice time and physicality of practice due to the 2011 CBA,  a point made by Mike Florio after Roethlisberger's injury. The reality is limitation on practice has not allowed players to toughen up enough for better play.  Some also cite the litany of rule changes of recent to protect players, though it's worth asking if the better way to protect players is to instead toughen them up with more, not less, physicality.   Off-season training, which seems to be year-round for players, is also an issue - players need to train less in the offseason and hit more during training camp and preseason as well as in practices during the season.  

The issue certainly can be fixed - open up practices more, let teams hit more. Some rule changes are also needed, notably elimination of the offensive pass interference penalty - the dumbest oxymoron in sports - and loosening the standard to judge a catch - when in doubt the benefit of the doubt ought to go to the receiver.  Other changes the league ought to consider - adopt the CFL and Arena Football rule allowing pass catchers a running start behind the line of scrimmage at the snap, balanced by elimination of the five-yard rule.

People still watch the game because of its fundamentally compelling nature.   And it can be made better.

At Talladega NASCAR Gets Worse

And it gets worse for NASCAR. TV ratings for the Chase in 2015 have been dismal and the moving of the Diehard 500 at Talladega to NBC Sports Network instead of airing it on NBC (which aired the USGP for F1) was not a good sign for the Cup Series; adding insult to that injury, the Truck 250 was aired on FOX's over the air network.

But what transpired at Talladega is bound to anger even more people.  Not only was the racing once again enormously under-competitive due to NASCAR's ridiculous diktat against push-drafting, the finish was the biggest insult to competitive integrity in years, certainly since the absurd Regan Smith yellow line penalty that cost him a last-lap win in the 2008 Diehard 500.   NASCAR dictated only one green-white checker finish for this Diehard 500, apparently thinking having the normal three would produce more crashes; what they got instead was two, the first coming on what NASCAR disingenuously claimed was not an attempt - the green light came on as the cars hit the gas, but a crash occurred in the trioval and NASCAR waved the yellow, claiming it was not an attempt, this even though the radio chatter from drivers indicated it was an attempt. 

NASCAR tried again and as Joey Logano and Dale Earnhardt Jr took off Logano got the lead but another wreck, involving among others the eminently-forgettable Denny Hamlin after a bad day where he had to get a roof hatch repaired, erupted and NASCAR wasted several minutes trying to determine who was leading at what scoring loop even though it was obvious Logano was the leader and thus, under NASCAR's field-freeze rule, the winner.

The wreck happened because Kevin Harvick - who took out Denny Hamlin at Daytona and thus launched Austin Dillon into spearing the fencing - swerved into Trevor Bayne.   But of course Harvick refuses to be accountable for it - and NASCAR as usual will not hold the responsible driver accountable for it.

It combined the worst of everything for NASCAR.

Without push-drafting the cars basically are stuck sidedrafting with the leader basically immune from challenge; for most of the race the top five hogged the bottom line without any challenge, where the racing should have been about rocket-surges from midfield into the lead by lock-bumper two-car superdrafts, the lead thus changing at a spectacular rate, and the field able to keep up and sort out without being stuck in place.

Then there is the chronic problem that NASCAR gives the officiating tower the power it has to determine the outcome instead of the racers,   That the restart was declared not a restart by NASCAR was doubletalk; that it was important is also absurd both for the aborted start and for the one that was stopped after the leaders hit Turn One; because NASCAR ostensibly doesn't allow racing to the line, instead freezing the field when the caution comes out - this even after numerous examples (such as the 2004 Firecracker 250, the 2007 Daytona 500, the 2008 Talladega Truck 250, and the 2011 Firecracker 400) where NASCAR left the green out amid a crash and let the field race to the line.  The result all these times was that racing to the line is not the safety problem NASCAR seems to pretend it to be.

What transpired was Joey Logano was declared the winner, based not on the start-finish line but by the officiating tower reading a scoring loop.   No matter how it is sliced it is not a legitimate win; Logano didn't race to the line to earn the win.   Such rule-induced fraudulence has been a depressingly frequent occurrence, most infamously illustrated in the 2004 Winston 500 and 2004 Pocono 500.  

The tower wasn't supposed to make the call - it was supposed to be determined by racing to the stripe.   That it was officiated like this shows anew NASCAR's credibility problem.

At Talladega such problems are easily fixable - let the cars (and Trucks) push-draft again; it's the strongest power to pass ever seen, and what matters is passing, period; give the racing at Talladega and Daytona back the 60-plus lead change average it had just a few years ago.  Reduce the officiating tower's role and give some control of the racing back to the racers - let them race to the stripe and thus legitimately determine the outcome.   And stop pretending a restart is not a restart.  

NASCAR's credibility issues of course extend far beyond Talladega.   The Chase concept has no legitimacy and the disintegration of TV ratings shows it; drop the Chase, go back to the Latford Point System, and increase the points bonuses for the win and for most laps led - incentivize going for the win above everything else.   The issue of costs and team spending need to be addressed by NASCAR and the new Race Team Alliance - the low number of winners in 2015 (just eleven with the Talladega outcome) is indicative of a disturbing lack of competitive depth for the sport. 


*****


It was a lousy race even for the winner, and it certainly stunk for the rest of the field.   Joe Gibbs Racing was dismal even though it led some laps; Stewart-Haas Racing was basically MIA; so were any Fords outside of Penske Racing; Ganassi-Earnhardt had a forgettable day.   That racing always produces more widespread disappointment than cheer is true enough; that even the winners couldn't honestly feel good about how it all transpired merely shows how dismal a day it was for a track where it should always be so much better.

Week Three - More This And That

The NFL hit Week Three and with footballs flying all around, a fascinating tidbit came from Mike Florio, who said that increased injuries, particularly to quarterbacks and notably in the wake of injuries to Tony Romo and Ben Roethlisberger, may prompt the NFL to increase practice time alloted to teams, this after curtailing it to get the 2011 CBA done and also to lessen the workload for players, ostensibly to prepare them for an eventual expansion of the season to 18 games. After four seasons, the results have been mixed; what I've noticed is it seems to take three weeks or more for teams to get into proper rhythm, and increased practices can only help toughen up players and also better establish team rhythm.

With that, Week Three had some more crackerjack games.   A look at what went down -


Wunna these days, Tennessee, wunna these days......! - The Titans are for real, even tough they're presently 1-2.   Marcus Mariota has given them a fight they didn't have in 2014, and it showed in the 35-33 Colts win; the Titans fell behind 14-0 after a Mariota pick-six, then Mariota erased that gap with 27 unanswered points before Andrew Luck erupted with three touchdown drives.   Mariota then came back from that and scored in the final minute; the two-point try failed and the ensuing onside kick also failed.

Curiously the Titans didn't try a 50-plus yard field goal after Mariota was sacked at the Colts 34 in the fourth quarter while still up 27-14; in hindsight they could have used the possible extra three points.   The Titans have now lost eight straight to the Colts, and five of them were the kind of winnable one-score losses that will bug the hell out of anyone.


The Steelers win the game and may lose the season - Michael Vick is not what he once was, and without Ben Roethlisberger the Steelers may be in serious trouble, especially with a pending date with a Ravens team that's now in must-win mode, and which beat the Steelers the last time they traveled to Pittsburgh.


The Falcons may be better than we thought - Erasing a 14-point gap on three separate occasions, the Falcons posted one of the wildest wins so far this year, 39-28.   Brandon Weeden was effective in the first half but the second half was beyond anyone for the Cowboys.   It showed they're not as good as they (or anyone else) thought they were.   The Falcons meanwhile haven't yet proven they're as good as people think they are, but at least they're showing something to that direction.


For Eagles and Jets, some things never change - The Eagles have never lost to the NY Jets, ever.   That streak continued as the Eagles erupted to 24 points in the first half.  Ryan Fitzpatrick did show some fight in clawing back with 17 points but three INTs are what he ultimately is.


Chargers aren't putting up enough fight anymore - Two road losses to teams that aren't as good as you show you're not a contender anymore.  The Chargers have long been criticized for underachievement and they're just confirming the criticism.


The Lions have become irrelevant again - The Lions have never done well against quality opponents and Matthew Stafford didn't rise to the occasion against a transitioning Broncos team on Sunday night.   Matthew Stafford, presently 3-33 (0-18 on the road) against quality opponents, may go down as the most talented quarterback who ultimately didn't do anything.  He has three signature wins - 2009's comeback against the Browns, 2013's comeback against the Cowboys, and 2014's comeback against the Falcons.   And those are wins anyone should be proud of.   Yet he still has not done it against truly quality foes like Peyton Manning teams.


Jameis Winston's rough beginning - Rookie seasons are filled with roughness, but Winston's subpar completion percentage against a banged-up Houston team still warrants some criticism.   In two of his first three games he hasn't reached 50% completion and has three picks to four touchdowns.  Can he improve?  I still say he can, but he has to start improving.


Colin Kaepernick in trouble - We knew the Cardinals are good now with Carson Palmer back, but to pick off Colin Kaepernick four times is a bad sign for the quarterback who has come under more intense scrutiny after his poor 2014 season and after showing real improvement in the first game of the season.   He faces the Packers next week and if he struggles again the Niners need to reconsider him.


The Bengals now own the Ravens - One of the best finishes of the year erupted at M&T Bank Stadium as the Ravens came back from down 14-0, the lead changed four times in the fourth quarter - and Andy Dalton still bombed the Ravens to submission in a game that featured a combined total of 122 rushing yards.   The Bengals are now 19-20 all-time against the Ravens and Andy Dalton has now won five of the last six meetings - and the one loss (in 2013) saw Dalton complete a tip-drill touchdown to force overtime.


Wrecks Ryan tears up Miami - When it isn't the Patriots Rex Ryan seems invincible, and he bombed the Dolphins in Miami 41-14.   Ryan Tannehill threw three picks, indicating why he'll never be anything beyond an 8-8 or 9-7 quarterback.   This rivalry, though, is very tight - this was Rex Ryan's sixth win in thirteen meetings with the Dolphins to date, and five of Miami's wins over Ryan were road wins for the Dolphins.


Are the Raiders for real? - Derek Carr is starting to make believers.   The win over the Ravens was huge, and with another win, this one over the Browns, the Raiders schedule takes a turn for the better with coming dates against the Bears, the Steelers (the Raiders have dominated that rivalry recently, Roethlisberger or no Roethlisberger), the Jets, two dates with the Chiefs, and two dates with a suddenly-uncertain Chargers squad.


Because they had to play this game...... - The Patriots refused to look past the Jaguars; they took them seriously and made certain to bury them.   Tom Brady thus found 400 touchdowns - and has more Superbowls than the three quarterbacks (Marino, Favre, and Manning) combined.


Packers prove they're not what the hype says they are - On Monday Night Football, when up 38-14 over an obviously overmatched Chiefs team, the Packers didn't finish them off; instead the Chiefs scored two touchdowns and got the ball back in the final minute.   Aaron Rodgers again showed the fourth quarter is his weakest while Alex Smith showed some fight we haven't seen out of him in awhile.   It all added up to a 38-28 Packers win, a win but one that exposes some weakness in the much-hyped Packer juggernaut.



So it goes as we await Week Four.

Then And Now - 1995 Summer 500 Pocono

Twenty years ago Pocono Raceway witnessed one of its most competitive races in the Summer 500 - aka the Miller Draft 500 - and seeing it in the aftermath of the frustrating 2015 Brickyard 400 is illustrative of NASCAR's search for rules packages that will open up passing.   This Pocono race illustrates what NASCAR hoped to see at the Brickyard and beyond, and it's worth breaking down what went right for NASCAR in 1995 because they shouldn't give up on getting what we see in this Pocono race -


* As is obvious from the beginning, the draft is very effective here.   Historically Pocono produced drafting and it made for a lot of passing; the 1982 Summer 500, famous for Dale Earnhardt's Turn One tumble with Tim Richmond, remains the benchmark for excellent racing on 2.5-milers with low-banked corners.   This was in the period when NASCAR had begun windtunnel testing the cars - this after Billy France felt the manufacturers had lied to him about their racecars in lobbying for rule changes - and they were sporting large spoilers but no aeropush effect.

* Goodyear was a year removed from the 1994 tire war with Hoosier and was using leftover tire war tires to a considerable extent; at the time Chris Economaki and Dick Berggren noted in their written forums that some of these tires seemed to race more like bias ply tires.   It is clear in this 1995 race that the tires are being leaned on pretty hard and are allowing the drivers to race hard. 

* The draft is so effective and the tires so raceable that shifting is not hurting ability to pass, this after the beginning of shifting in 1991-2 indeed affected ability to pass, to where some drivers lobbied against it - "Shifting is a pain in the ass," Terry Labonte said in 1992. 


The discouraging result from the 2015 Brickyard 400 should not mean the end of a high-drag aero package, because we know it can work, and work spectacularly.

One Hand Clapping For Brickyard Busch

It was one hand clapping at the end.

Kyle Busch seized the Brickyard 400 on a restart with 11 to go and seized his fourth win in the last five races, a surge of success reminiscent of his 2008 binge of victories in his debut season with Joe Gibbs Racing.   The 22nd running of the Brickyard 400 and also the Saturday Brickyard 250 offered Kyle Busch two for the price of one and also served as the first race weekend for NASCAR's higher downforce package.  

Looking at some of the subplots of the 2015 Brickyard 400 -



A discouraging first weekend for the high downforce package - Drivers were unhappy with how their cars raced in the Brickyard with a nine-inch spoiler, wider radiator pan, and lower airdam clearance.   The hope was this package would increase drag and thus create a drafting effect to create more passing.    The result for both races was an extreme disappointment.   Cars could suck up on other cars noticeably better than in years past, but the draft never kicked in to any worthwhile effect outside of Kyle Busch's retro-1970s finish in the 250 with Ryan Blaney, stalking him in the final laps then gunning him down on the backstretch.  

The lack of passing is certainly discouraging, though some silver linings did show up - not only did the draft make an actual appearance at the Brickyard, albeit to grossly insufficient effect, what was striking was how often drivers complained that they were loose behind other cars, a 180 from the aeropush era's cliché about "my car pushed bad in traffic."  

Some unfavorably compared the package to the low downforce package at Kentucky where passing did increase.   Kentucky got lucky to some extent there and while passing shot up from last year's incidence, in the end it was not that much greater than the previous high that track produced.   And the fact remains that history has shown us how this retro-5&5 Rule Package failed long-term in 1998 and also in the mid-2000s decade when John Darby took over the garage and cut downforce after 2003.  

The caveat in all this has remained tires.   Drivers wanted a softer tire for Kentucky and presumably will get one for Darlington when the Retro-5&5 Package returns.   The issue, though, isn't softer tires as much as bias ply-type tires, tires that are more forgiving than radials have usually been.   That Goodyear won't build bias ply NASCAR tires is true enough - "They don't sell (bias plies) to the public," MRN's Dave Moody notes - but it can build tires the drivers can lean on hard and race hard with, because at times we have seen cases where Goodyear brought tires the drivers could indeed lean hard on - this was evident in the Erik Jones-Kasey Kahne sidedraft epic in the Truck 200 at Charlotte in May.  So there's no reason they can't come up with a radial that races like bias plies - a tire that's forgiving and the drivers can lean hard on.

That NASCAR will run different downforce packages for different tracks from now on seems evident now; a high downforce "draft" package should work on tracks like Indianapolis and Michigan where a Retro-5&5 Package seems to work at places like Kentucky and Darlington; getting the right tires remains a part of the varied packages.


Kevin Harvick becomes NASCAR's Aaron Rodgers again -  Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers puts up gaudy volume stats and touchdowns, but in the clutch he's been mediocre at best, still unable to win a game where he has to stage any kind of significant comeback and just 2-4 in the playoffs the last four seasons; he has especially come up small against the Seahawks.   Kevin Harvick has developed a reputation similar to Rodgers - he leads the most laps race after race yet never cashes in with it.   He came up short again at the Brickyard, finishing third.    It has been a consistent pattern of Harvick; if NASCAR increased the bonus for most laps led by a significant amount - it should, BTW - Harvick would be a lot closer to the championship than he presently is. 


Toyota's one-man show - True, three JGR Toyotas finished in the top-ten and so did the increasingly woebegone Michael Waltrip outfit as Clint Bowyer grabbed a top-ten, this while David Ragan showed some respectable form during the day.   But it remains Kyle Busch's show, and the difference he makes is graphic considering Toyota got nothing out of his substitutes and has basically gotten nothing out of anyone else now that he's back.  


Hendrick Killers - Kyle Busch's surge has done something astonishing - Hendrick Motorsports had a lousy day at the Brickyard and haven't been all that hot since winning the Firecracker; ironic that Dale Junior brought out a late yellow while Jeff Gordon, the last entrant in the 1994 Brickyard 400 still racing, crashed out, leading to a media joke about how his NASCAR debut was in Richard Petty's final race and The King went out in a blaze.


Forget Ford - Penske had a good day despite struggle with Brad Keselowski's outfit, and once again that was it as far as Ford goes.   Aric Almirola had an encouraging effort but crashed, while his MIA teammate Sam Hornish Jr. had a better-than-expected finish, but that was it for Ford; Petty's team still had a better day than the Roush-Fenway mess lowlighted by Trevor Bayne bringing out the last yellow.  


There was a Ryan Newman sighting - The stealth Newman finished 11th, the best for the RCR bunch.   Austin Dillon's forgettable foray to Cup continued getting worse with a pit speeding penalty he never recovered from.  



So it goes with the Brickyard behind us and Pocono ahead.

NASCAR And Drivers On What Constitutes Good Racing

The 2010 Winston 500 set the motorsports record for lead changes at 88, and is a great illustration of the issue of what constitutes great racing


NASCAR will use two different downforce packages for the Brickyard 400 this weekend as the Xfinity Series will run a larger spoiler and gear rule for additional drag, with the hope of creating a drafting effect for more passing. A similar package for the Cup side will run at Michigan in August. Crew chief Eric Phillips of JGR for one has spoken in favor of the change.

It also brings to the fore a recent piece by Jim Utter interviewing Dale Earnhardt Jr. about recent talks within the NASCAR driver council where the question was asked, "What makes a good race?" Junior noted that "NASCAR I think wants pack racing and drafting and passing, tons and tons of passing." He also noted "I think the drivers' opinion....is a bit old school. Something from the 1980s and '90s.....off-throttle time, guys sliding around, tires wearing out, tires not making a fuel run, having to really take care of it. That's the kind of thing we want to encourage."

In all the 40-plus years I've followed and studied racing I've had disagreements with a lot of people, and the best races we've historically seen have been the races with the packs, where the draft kicks in to very strong effect, and the drivers fight for the lead hard.   In NASCAR history some 80 races have broken 40 official lead changes and multiple others - such as Ontario Motor Speedway in 1972, 1974, 1977, and 1979 - hit 35 or more (Ontario in 1978 hit 30) official lead changes and numerous unofficial ones;  twenty years ago Pocono saw one of its best races and it hit 35 official lead changes and multiple unofficial ones.

But Dale Junior's view of good racing and NASCAR's aren't necessarily that far apart - though NASCAR meddling has thwarted the goal of more passing between trying to stifle push-drafting and absurd out-of-bounds rules for the plate tracks - and the Pocono race linked above showcases at least some of what Junior mentions; it also showcases the draft kicking in to great effect.   Overvaluing technique as opposed to actually making something happen doesn't work, but if technique makes something happen - Tim Richmond noted during his 1986 victory binge how he mastered Pocono by compromising on his driving style - then clearly it matters.

It brings to mind the low-downforce package used at Kentucky for the Cup cars and the positive feedback provided even though history has long told us low downforce is not a sustainably effective racecar package, as shown in 1998 and the second two-thirds of the 2000-9 decade, the John Darby era of the NASCAR garage area.

And the caveat that is often overlooked is tires - drivers want a softer tire with the low-downforce package as Junior noted above, though studying the sport's history it seems the sport needs not a softer tire as much as a bias-ply tire, a tire that is forgiving to the driver, does not require the driver to "catch" the car but instead all but requires the driver to race hard.   Certainly the era of bias-ply tires in NASCAR saw an enormity of passing and the best illustration of bias-plies remains the June 1991 Michigan 400 when the first half saw over 30 lead changes, official and otherwise, with Earnhardt Sr. and Davey Allison waging a ferocious fight for first often throwing their cars five lengths deeper and deeper.   The 1995-6 period saw several such races where the tires raced more like bias-plies, as did one of the forgotten races of the last fifteen years, the 2000 National 500 at Charlotte.

Getting back to downforce, it brings to mind a question I know I never thought of and doubt anyone would have thought of before - could NASCAR be evolving toward multiple downforce packages for different tracks?  That drivers use different racecars has long been true, despite the myth John Darby pushed of "twenty different cars for twenty different tracks" that NASCAR wanted to eliminate.   The varied downforce packages NASCAR is racing would seem to indicate they're thinking along those lines.  

And if it works out it will be a major evolution in the sport, where both sides involved - the drivers and the sanctioning body - have worked together to an extent we haven't seen before.

Charlotte And NASCAR's Never-Ending Rules Dilemma

Note: originially published May 16, this has been updated on June 13:





The NC 200 for the Trucks at Charlotte began as a thoroughly forgettable rout by Erik Jones, the latest young phenom out of Joe Gibbs Racing's orbit. Driving one of teammate Kyle Busch's Toyotas, Jones qualified second but started last (he missed the drivers meeting) with polesitter Kasey Kahne (sent back there for unapproved changes), in a Dale Junior Chevrolet. It took Jones all of 26 laps to make a mockery of the Truck Series' competitive depth and he led 79 laps, but a yellow in the final 30 laps set up the finest battle NASCAR has seen on a non-plate track in years, as Kahne sidedrafted to Jones and the two fought nose to nose for lap after lap, interrupted by two more yellows. The green-white-checker finish was the wildest finish in years as Jones and Kahne sidedrafted and both crossed up noticeably before Kahne got him by inches.

The best race in years comes amid the never-ending rules dilemma NASCAR faces as it prepares for 2016's rule package, a source of friction among drivers and seemingly everyone else as Carl Edwards, Clint Bowyer, and Tony Stewart have been vocally critical of NASCAR's 2015 package of reduced horsepower and reduced downforce, a package whose weaknesses were on display yet again in the subsequent All Star Race at Charlotte where there was almost nothing in the way of passing and Denny Hamlin stopped a rally by Kevin Harvick by making Harvick's Chevy run in his Toyota's dirty air, which in effect pushed back Harvick's car.

The Trucks make the discussion  more interesting because they also have less horsepower, more drag, and pretty much the same downforce, and the last few seasons they have seen some spirited battles for first on intermediate tracks, notably Kansas in 2013 and 2014 as well as recent years at Homestead and Atlanta.   "If you're wide open and not lifting, I don't know how you're going to get around that car in front of you," said Bowyer a few weeks ago, while NASCAR's Steve O'Donnell vowed not to "make change for the sake of change."

The whole idea that "Our sport is based on guys manhandling the cars" (Edwards) and "we've gone father and father away from that because of all the knowledge, engineering, and dependence on aero" would sound true except that people seem to continue ignoring that dependence on aero has never been a new concept - running wide open on intermediate tracks wasn't uncommon in the Petty-Pearson-Cale-Allison-Isaac era; there was controversy in 1976 when NASCAR went to smaller carbs six races into that season and drivers reported going flat out at Atlanta in the first race with them; as late as 1995-6 Charlotte famously saw racing in the All Star Race and the 600 where drivers were so surprised at how effective the draft had become again that it became a lengthy talking point on the telecasts (see see 10:05 of this clip as an example).  

The Truck 200 at Charlotte again illustrates how all the talk can obscure that solutions are simpler than one might think.


UPDATE: NASCAR will fast-track a further reduction in downforce later in 2015.

2015 Winston 500 Shakeups, Winners, And Losers

The Winston 500 - this year debuting Geico sponsorship after thirteen seasons under the aegis of the Aarons lease-to-own retailer store chain - opened with the promise of some of the best racing of the 2015 season.   It ended with a popular win by Dale Earnhardt Jr., but it also ended with some oblique criticism of NASCAR's rules package - as old a story as one can find, yet one that remains relevant given that it seemingly doesn't end.

The weekend began with two off-track stories - the announcement that the GoDaddy internet registrar company will withdraw its longtime sponsorship of Danica Patrick, another disturbing sign that NASCAR sponsorship's expense and return are not working to the sport's benefit (and also a subtle indictment of Patrick's value as a sponsor symbol), and then comments from Kevin Harvick advocating a shakeup of the NASCAR schedule - basically yet another forum to advocate adding the Iowa Speedway to the Winston Cup schedule.

That NASCAR has been in need of shaking things up has been true for a long time, and it showed again in the Winston 500.  The schedule, though, is the least in need of shaking things up - the only changes that are needed for the schedule are dropping the All Star Race (with Atlanta's 500 being moved into its stead in mid-May), going back to 500-mile distances because they remain fundamentally superior tests of racers and cars, putting start times back to just after 12 PM Eastern/area time instead of 1:30 PM - late start times are a myth pushed by TV networks, mostly ESPN, claiming later start times mean larger audiences; on the contrary what experience has proven is later start times have hurt attendances - and dropping night races, which have accomplished nothing.

Real shaking up for the sport lays in competition areas.   For the larger issue of NASCAR, the most immediate change that remains needed is to drop the exclusivity deal with Goodyear and allow Firestone and Hoosier to supply raceteams with tires and engineering help.   The objection that "tire wars" are unsafe ignores the lack of improved safety with Goodyear's monopoly and oversells the risk factor when tire competition occurred; the real legacy of tire wars has been upsurges in new and different winning drivers and teams. 


*****


There are of course other issues long debated, such as the Chase format and a points system that obstinately refuses to reward what warrant the largest reward - winning and most laps led.   They relate to Talladega as well, where the immediate shakeup in need remains tackling the rules myopia of the sanctioning body.   Rusty Wallace's oblique on-air criticism of the rules package for the plate tracks to discourage push-drafting rang screamingly true in the weakest Talladega race in ten-plus years, and even rang true in the Xfinity Series Winn Dixie 300 on Saturday; there was noticeable tandem drafting at the end - something noted after July 2014's Firecracker 250 at Daytona - and it produced excellent racing highlighted by the Logano-Almirola-Sadler-Yeley-Dillion push-draft showdown over the race's final quarter, even amid the frequent spoiling of momentum due to numerous yellows - and yet there simply wasn't enough push-drafting.   The contrast with the 500 was too graphic to ignore, and it showcased anew that NASCAR really has no business policing against push-drafting, the strongest power to pass that racing can ever see.  

For a race just four years removed from blasting past 80 official lead changes to be stuck at 27, and no one able to make any move at the end because the draft simply wasn't going to work, remains an indictment of NASCAR's rules myopia.


*****


The 500's winners were limited to just one team - Hendrick Motorsports.  The Junior/Johnson Chevrolets finished 1-2 and Dale Junior thus grabbed his sixth Talladega win and first since 2004, this after Hendrick's cars led nearly 170 laps.    It was so one-sided that even excellent finishes by Paul Menard, Ryan Blaney and the Wood Brothers, Martin Truex, Sam Hornish Jr., and the completely unnoticed top-ten of Josh Wise and the Curb Motorsports team registered nothing.

The losers were aplenty, led by Ford.    While Sam Hornish finished good, his Richard Petty teammate Aric Almirola had to settle for fifteenth despite a good rally from the early Turn Two melee; it nonetheless was a huge improvement for the #43 after a totally forgettable Speedweeks.   That Petty, the Woods, and Curb all had respectable finishes made the dismal finishes of Penske Racing all the more surprising, and made the abysmal runs of the Roush bunch all the worse.

The Toyotas didn't acquit themselves much better.   Denny Hamlin led five laps and finished ninth, and his JGR teammates were almost in Witness Protection during the day other than a brief run to the top five by Matt Kenseth and a surprising effort by Carl Edwards that got thrown away at the finish and has produced just one top ten for the #19; one has to wonder again whether signing on Carl Edwards was a good idea to begin with.  

RCR, despite two cars in the top ten, didn't have much to write home about with several engine failures, with a pit fire for Ryan Newman tossed in for good measure. 


It all added up to the most disappointing weekend of the season so far, coming at the place that's supposed to be better than that.