Monday, October 29, 2018

Overhyping Of Short Tracks Hits Again In Finale Of 2018




Talladega's October weekend was a tale of two radically different races.   The Truck 250 was a highly-competitive affair with some very aggressive push-drafting and a last-lap crash; when it was over Timothy Peters grabbed the win, his first since 2015 and first in Maury Gallagher's Chevrolets.

The slicing and dicing in the Truck 250 stood in surprising contrast to the Diehard 500 where the Stewart-Haas Racing Fords lined up together and displayed a power like race sponsor One Thousand Bulbs  - an online lighting retailer.  The SHR Fords refused to race each other, playing the team-order game to a strikingly effective - and controversial - degree.







But it's been the subsequent Old Dominion 500 weekend that's caused recent excitement.   Martinsville had the usual incidence of crashes - including a pit road gaffe by Clint Bowyer with William Byron -  as Joey Logano led some 300 laps before late-race pit shuffling put Logano back in the lead.







But it was Martin Truex who tried to steal the show - and wound up getting the win stolen on him.   Truex was livid at Logano afterward, and he arguably has a case for anger - he raced Logano clean (something too many racers seem to have forgotten how to execute) and Logano swerved him.







The Old Dominion 500 finish brought back memory of Logano's introduction to national racing and the 2009 Toyota Showdown at Irwindale Speedway.



The buffoonery at Martinsville marred what was developing into a memorable finish regardless of outcome, and the action brought yet more social and regular-media hype about how good short track racing is.   NBC analyst Jeff Burton - a winner at Martinsville in 1997 in a good clean nose-to-nose dice with Bobby Hamilton - stated on his Twitter account that "the combination of a short track and the Playoffs.....(meant) these drivers are under more pressure to perform than ever before."

Which leads, though, to the obvious - so where, Jeff, are the 35 lead changes?  The track has broken 30 official lead changes three times this decade and even such races at Burton's 1997 win, Hamilton's subsequent 1998 win, John Andretti's 1999 win, to name three, were genuinely competitive affairs even though they didn't reach that level, so Martinsville has unquestionably been a legitimately competitive track. 

Yet the hype for "more short tracks" after such races continues the deplorable approach of pitting speedways against each other and sells short tracks as more than what they are.  

It is illustrated most graphically in Dave Moody's postrace blog posting, a piece worth a response.


Moody is flat wrong about why the speedway building boom of 1996 onward favored 1.5-mile tracks - that design was chosen because it was large enough for 100,000-plus seating and luxury boxes, small enough to avoid the criticism that "we can't see the whole track," and was a competition model that had delivered quality racing.





As shown in the 1997 Vegas BGN 300, the 1.5 milers are fundamentally sound as a competition venue.  





Atlanta became a very competitive race for four seasons 1999-2003 as a quad-oval.






Moody's assertion that "Over the last five to seven years the best racing in NASCAR has invariably been found on the short tracks and the road courses," is also not true.   The best racing in the decade by far has been on the restrictor plate tracks.   Pocono has also seen some strikingly physical racing, notably the crash-torn 2010 season.   And the most celebrated Winston Cup race of this span remains Fontana in 2013.  That doesn't mean there haven't been memorable short track races in that span; it means the maligned bigger tracks have delivered as well.

An irony is the collapse of popularity of Bristol, which altered its corners to where by 2010 there was sustained side by side racing up front as had been the case there in 1989-91 - racing that was notably cleaner than the one-groove demo derbies that permeated the track 1992-2009.   And fans began protesting against it - there was unavoidable verbiage to get Bristol back to the one-groove mess it had been.   Fickle fans, indeed.

The main gripe about bigger tracks is aeropush, which ignores where aeropush began - at Martinsville.   Bobby Hamilton following the 1996 Old Dominion 500 stated there was aerodynamic push in the cars in that race.   Short track aeropush has been reality as long as aeropush has existed, making utter nonsense of the indictment of bigger tracks.





Related is the common claim that on short tracks "aero doesn't matter."   Any casual look at Late Models shows this statement is laughable - Late Models look more like superspeedway cars than today's superspeedway cars do.   And back in the day the aerodynamic rake of Richard Petty's mid-80s Pontiacs was compared to the aero rake of dirt cars.


Moody claims fans are "voting with their wallets and credit cards."   Are they?   The short tracks NASCAR has haven't sold any better than superspeedways; Bristol in particular posted a very solid crowd in its recent Volunteer 500 but some of its recent Southeastern 500 crowds have been shockingly nonexistent.   And this recent Martinsville race was anything but sold out - which led to a Twitter rant during the Truck 250 there that fans who claim to want more short tracks need to come out and actually support the short tracks.

Moody indicts several races like the Brickyard Xfinity 250 in advocating returning the Xfinity series to Indy Raceway Park.   The phase-in of the NA18D draft duct package in that race in its last two runnings makes complete nonsense of dropping the Brickyard in favor of a forgettable bullring.   No IRP race ever measured up to the 2017-18 Brickyard 250s in competitive excellence.





The same is true of the Truck Series, whose big track races have been competitive to a level its 1995-2000 run primarily on short tracks never was.   Moody uses the cliché "return to its roots."  The cliché in blunt fact means "drag the sport back to the farm" - regression.

Moody also repeats the claim that the schedules will be shaken up after 2020 when the present set of sanctioning agreements expires.   The claim has never held up credibly because of a complete lack of logic - the sport is going to drop races on big tracks in good markets in favor of bullrings in weak markets?   Often advocated is moving Cup dates to Iowa Speedway - a track owned by NASCAR and which would already have gotten Cup dates if the concept was in any way credible.

"The excitement generated by the Charlotte Roval and Martinsville in recent weeks is difficult to ignore."   The superior racing in the Talladega Truck 250 is also difficult to ignore.  The excellent racing generated by the coming NA18D package is also difficult to ignore.   NASCAR needs to field the most competitive racing the sport can get, and the objective reality is it is not a case for more short tracks.

Wednesday, October 24, 2018

The Hate Crime Myth

First a repost from February 29, 2016:


The numbers disprove the existence of hate crimes.




We now add this piece on fraudulence in "hate crimes."

NFL Week Eight Arrives




The Patriots had a far more competitive game vs the Bears than anyone likely expected, and concern about the Patriots defense have led to rumor of a trade for Patrick Peterson from the Cardinals



The NFL's eighth week arrives, so we try again with picks even though for the year we're not that great - about .500 -



Texans over Dolphins - Miami will be without Ryan Tannehill and ex-Texan Brock Osweiler will start.   Osweiler's regression as a quarterback has been striking as his replacement, Deshaun Watson, is steadily improving and the Texans have won four straight coming in.



Eagles over Jaguars, London - There has been a ridiculous controversy where Colin Kaepernick suck-ups have been demanding the Jaguars sign Kaepernick even though Bortles has as many wins this year alone as Kaepernick had his final two playing seasons.  The Eagles for their part aren't better off, after blowing a 17-point lead to the Panthers.


The other subplot here is Jaguars owner Shad Khan has withdrawn a big to purchase Wembley Stadium - a sign the Jaguars see there isn't a future in permanently moving to London.


Chiefs over Broncos - Denver played tough vs Kansas City the first time, expect the same here.



Browns over Steelers - This is a risky pick given the Steelers' turnaround in recent games, but the Browns are well ahead of where they were in 2017 and their comeback to the tie in Week One indicates they're no longer afraid of the Steelers.


Bears over NY Jets - The Jets' poor performance against the Vikings is a bad sign after back-to-back wins.   Sam Darnold was not prepared for the cold day and the Bears are coming off a bitter loss.



Redskins over NY Giants - The Giants still played respectably in the Monday Night loss at Atlanta, but it now seems they are in rebuilding mode with the trade of serially-immature defensive back Eli Woodard - aka Eli Apple - to the Saints.    The Redskins meanwhile are 4-2 and that should get better with this matchup.



Panthers over Ravens - Both teams have four wins but while Cam Newton and Joe Flacco both have eleven touchdowns, Newton got his scores with 94 fewer passes.   The Ravens have been uneven in their last three games at 1-2 vs Carolina's 2-1 in that same span.


Bengals over Buccaneers -  After getting obliterated in prime time the Bengals right now don't look like potential division champs but they get a Bucs team that changed quarterbacks and needed overtime to beat the Browns.


Lions over Seahawks - The Lions now appear to be slowly buying into Matt Patricia, this as the Seahawks come in and both teams are winners of three of their last four games.  


Colts over Raiders -  The Raiders now appear in true teardown and rebuild mode as Jon Gruden continues to remove players he inherited and the Colts come in off a needed win and averaging 32 points scored in their last four games.


Cardinals over Niners -  The Josh Rosen experiment is off to a terrible start, but his first win was at San Francisco, which still has yet to see any winning out of C.J. Beathard, this despite a 62% completion rate to Rosen's 55%.


Rams over Packers - The Packers and Aaron Rodgers - perennially overrated.   The Rams - right now it's hard to see who will stop them.  


Vikings over Saints -  Drew Brees' career struggle against the Ravens nearly saw at least an overtime game, and his recent struggle against the Vikings comes to mind as the Saints march into the New Humphrey Dome and in Kirk Cousins a quarterback who's actually thrown for more yards and touchdowns than Brees.  



Patriots over Bills -  Rookie quarterbacks usually struggle, and this stat illustrates the lopsided nature of this matchup - Josh Allen has fewer touchdowns this season (two) than Tom Brady had vs. the Bears (three).     The fact Brady's loudmouth wife Gisele will take over Brady's normal spot with Jim Gray on the Westwood One halftime show is almost more interesting than this matchup.



So it goes for Week Eight.

Monday, October 15, 2018

NFL Week Seven Gets Revved Up


The NFL's seventh week is coming off some eye-popping results in Week Six and the teams we felt would be contenders seem to be falling into place.




What may be Game Of The Year erupted at Foxboro as the Chiefs erased a 24-9 gap and Patrick Mahomes proved his bona fides beyond all remaining doubt, but Tom Brady showcased why he is Greatest Ever in a 43-40 shootout, the highest scoring game in the history of the rivalry dating to the inaugural American Football League season.






2002's 41-38 overtime thriller had been the highest scoring game in the rivalry




There was also the ugly incident where a fan dumped beer on Tyreek Hill at Foxboro; the fan was banned from the stadium for at least this season.  

Thus do we get to Week Seven's games -



Broncos over Cardinals -  Two going-nowhere (a combined 3-9) teams.   Both have new quarterbacks but Denver is using an experienced passer in Case Keenum, and his experience has gotten him nothing after winning the first two games this season.   Rookie Josh Rosen for the Cardinals, though, has struggled with being a rookie, and facing a Broncos team that has lost four straight is not that enticing a chance at improvement.






Chargers over Titans, London -   Tennessee's disaster of a 21-0 home shutout by the hated Baltimore Ravens was lowlighted by the sacking of Marcus Mariota eleven times. It raised the issue of the Titans offensive line - see John Glennon's breakdown - which overall has been a longtime strength of the team. The Titans have lost two straight games and have just one win over the Chargers since their 1992 Houston Oilers season.   San Diego has surged of late and stand at 4-2.

This is one of the league's London games amid a quote from league executive Mark Waller that London "is definitely ready" to have an NFL team.   Concurrent with that is the story that the Jaguars are exploring actually moving to London though keeping their executive offices in Jacksonville. 


Texans over Jaguars -  The Jaguars meanwhile have fallen badly since beating the Patriots and at 3-3 host the now-3-3 Texans, winners of three straight despite a minus-1 turnover differential.   Deshaun Watson was sacked seven times in the win over Buffalo but Blake Bortles has faltered with five INTs in his last two games.   Look for Houston to continue momentum.


Dolphins over Lions -  Miami pulled out a clutch win over the Bears and now at 4-2 they get the weaker (at 2-3) Lions, winless on the road so far and giving up over 500 yards of offense in holding off the Packers last week.    Buying into new coach Matt Patricia is clearly a slow process, but two wins in the last three games is a sign of progress; that won't be enough against a now-surging Dolphins squad.


Eagles over Panthers - Carolina didn't pull it off over the Redskins with two fumbles and another Cam Newton pick - surprisingly the Panthers are plus-3 in turnover differential, and they get an Eagles team that is minus-4 in turnover differential and has lost three of the last five games.   Even with that the Eagles have shown a little more consistency than the Panthers.


Browns over Buccaneers -  The Bucs fired their defensive coordinator - ex-Falcons coach Mike Smith - and at 2-3 have sunk from the high-scoring days of the first three games.   At minus-6 in turnover differential the Bucs haven't been able to hold onto the ball.  Jameis Winston did show improvement with four touchdowns despite two INTs over his two-INT gag job off the bench against the Bears.   The Browns for their part are coming off a home humiliation by the Chargers, but Baker Mayfield has shown more so far than some may have expected and clearly is becoming the true leader of the Browns.





Tom Brady's flying touchdown vs the Chiefs wasn't the first time he faked out the defense - Brian Urlacher is the best-known victim


Patriots over Bears -   New England's 46-10 massacre in Superbowl XX is almost the only success the Bears have ever had against them.    Since then the Patriots have annihilated the Bears, winning in 1988, 1994, 1997, 2002, 2006, 2010, and 2014.   The rise of Matt Nagy and Mitchell Trubisky certainly adds competition to the rivalry going in, and the way the Chiefs attacked the Patriots defense gives the Bears (presently scoring 28 points per game) reason for optimism.   But the toughness of the Patriots also showed and taking down a rising quarterback and coach aren't unfamiliar missions for Belichick.


Vikings over NY Jets -  This could be the sleeper game of the weekend as the Vikings and Jets both have three wins and the Jets are scoring 27 to 28 points a game, contrasting the sluggish 23 points per game scored by the Vikings.   Sam Darnold, though, has yet to break 60% completion for the season vs. 63% completion allowed to opponent quarterbacks; Kirk Cousins meanwhile is at an eye-popping 71% completion rate.   The Jets have also allowed 81 points (27 per game) in their last three even with back-to-back wins.    We think this game will be competitive, but that the Vikings squeek it out.


Saints over Ravens - The Saints come in with one loss - Week One's 48-40 defeat to the Bucs - and Drew Brees is looking, surprisingly, for his first career win over the Ravens  - he's had nine touchdowns, eight INTs, and been sacked ten times in four career games vs Baltimore.   The Saints ground out the win over the Browns in their first meeting with an AFC North team, and we think it gave the Saints warning of what to expect from the Ravens.   Being in the Superdome may help.




CJ Beathard's INT and Richard Sherman's stupid penalty meant Aaron Rodgers won again


Rams over 49ers - The Rams are doing seemingly everything right, though their last four wins have been competitive games.   The Niners have collapsed without Jimmy Garoppolo and one wonders if C.J. Beathard (despite having a better completion rate - 62% - than Garoppolo - 59%) will ever figure out how to actually win a game, having done so only once in his career.


Cowboys over Redskins -  The Cowboys believe it or not are 3-3 heading to Washington, now 3-2.   Destroying a vaunted Jaguars defense gives the Cowboys some momentum with four straight wins in this rivalry on their side as well. 


Chiefs over Bengals -  The Chiefs won't go unbeaten but they get a Bengals team that got taken down a notch - again - by the Steelers.   Same old Bengals - talented and consistent winners but never enough to beat the good teams.


Falcons over NY Giants -  The question is when does Eli Manning get benched?   Supposedly owner John Mara is refusing to let the coaches go with backup Kyle Lauletta, this even as Eli Manning gets worse.   The Giants decision to build the team around Eli with a shored-up O-line (former Patriot Nate Solder was supposed to be the anchor) and running back Saquon Barkley has spectacularly blown up and the season looks lost, even with the uneven Falcons next up.



So it goes entering Week Seven

Monday, October 01, 2018

NFL Flies Into Week Five

After something of a sluggish start the NFL exploded in Week Four with a striking number of highly competitive games and the league now flies into Week Five.






Week Four began with a wild Thursday Night game, this as the Thursday Night games have usually been undercompetitive given the short turnaround time for the teams involved.    The explosion ran through the rest of the week.






The Patriots were widely thought to be in serious trouble after two ugly losses to teams - Jacksonville and Detroit - they have otherwise owned.    Against the Dolphins the Patriots got some key people back, cleaned up tackling issues, and got back to basics, especially on offense.    As a result the Patriots annihilated the Dolphins 38-7 in a game where Ryan Tannehill's lack of natural quarterbacking ability became more graphically displayed.   







Flying completely under the radar are the 3-1 Titans under new coach Mike Vrabel.   Despite being down multiple starters to injuries Vrabel has coached the Titans to three straight wins.   The return of Marcus Mariota despite a nerve issue in his throwing arm showed again as he led the comeback.   He has now led comeback wins over the Saints, Lions, Colts twice (both 2017), the Chiefs twice, the Bengals, and now the Eagles.   






That these aren't the same old Bengals showed in an enormously competitive game at Atlanta where a missed two-point conversion by the Falcons proved disastrous.   Bad injury to TE Tyler Eifert put a damper on the win, and for the Falcons it's a case of looking for answers.







But the early candidate for Game Of The Year is the Raiders overtime thriller over the Browns as Derek Carr erased an eight-point gap in the final minute to force overtime, then withstood a Browns possession in overtime to lead the game-winning field goal drive.  The 45-42 win was Jon Gruden's first as a coach since November 2008.   






The Houston Texans' thriller of a win over the Indianapolis Colts won't take a backseat in terms of rip-roaring football competition.   Andrew Luck erased a 28-10 Texans lead - shades of the Jack Pardee-era Houston Oilers - but after an exchange of field goals in overtime Frank Reich tried to convert 4th and 3 - he's gotten a lot of criticism for it but he was right - for the situation it was the move needed to win the game.   The win was desperately needed for the Texans and may now get Deshaun Watson and company on a winning run.






 

The dynamic of the NFC North may be changing as Mitchell Trubisky and Matt Nagy may be establishing good longer-term rhythm, this at the expense of a Bucs team that was exploding in offense but which now looks in trouble with Ryan Fitzpatrick crashing to earth and Jameis Winston looking rusty or worse.




The AFC West may be the tightest division in the AFC as San Diego edged the Garoppolo-less 49ers.   C.J Beatherd's rough effort to develop in the NFL continues to get rough.



So what to expect in Week Five?


Patriots over Colts - Andrew Luck has never done well in five career starts against the Patriots and New England is getting more key personnel back plus have gotten back to basics.   Luck may make more of a game of this as his presence with the Colts clearly elevates that team. but expect the Patriots to take care of business.


Panthers over NY Giants - The Giants tried to build around Eli Manning and it isn't working.   The Panthers keep winning and Cam Newton has won his last two starts vs the Giants.



Broncos over NY Jets -  The Broncos are coming off the bitterest kind of loss (and making the taste in their mouths worse is they've now lost six straight to Kansas City) and get a Jets team that's lost three straight and where much-hyped Sam Darnold has fallen fast - five INTs to just four TDs so far and a 57% completion rate.   Case Keenum has proven more than adequate for the Broncos and will certainly be doubly motivated to win this one.


Falcons over Steelers - The Falcons have been in a rut this season but are scoring like crazy.   The Steelers have also scored a lot but their team is clearly dysfunctional with the Le'Veon Bell holdout and a larger culture not conducive to team rhythm - relying on talent and big egos in the long run will fall apart and this is happening now for Pittsburgh.






2012 was the last time the Titans visited the Bills and it was one of the most exciting games of that season


Titans over Bills - The Josh Allen era in Buffalo is off to a rough start at 1-3, four INTs to two TDs, and a completion percentage of only 53%.   The Titans come in on a roll, expect them to pull off their fourth straight win.



Bengals over Dolphins - Ryan Tannehill's struggles as a quarterback are undeniable, but also undeniable is his ability to win; he just has a level of competitive muscle beyond which he can't go.   The Bengals get him this week now leading the AFC North.



Packers over Lions -  At 1-3 the Lions have yet to show improvement over the Jim Caldwell period, and they get a Packers team that's overrated but still 2-1-1.



Chiefs over Jaguars - The Chiefs come in after a big comeback at Denver.  They won last time they faced the Jaguars (2016), but the caveat is that was pre-Tom Coughlin.   Patrick Mahomes is the sensation of the league right now but then Blake Bortles is  better than people want to give him credit for.   This one may be tighter than expected.


Chargers over Raiders - Pick the home team and expect whatever the points over-under to be to get broken as both offenses (outside of San Diego's kicking game) are humming coming into this game.


Rams over Seahawks - The Seahawks have the same problem as the Steelers - a dysfunctional locker room culture overly dependent on talent and big egos instead of team-orientation.    Homefield advantage is also long gone for Pete Carroll's gang.



Eagles over Vikings - The Eagles, smarting from the OT loss at Tennessee, get back to The Linc and get a faltering Vikings team; expect the Vikes to put up points anyway.


Niners over Cardinals - Two faltering teams; pick the home team here.


Texans over Cowboys - The Texans got back on track last week and get a Cowboys team that is 2-2 but has looked inconsistent as such.



Saints over Redskins - The Deadskins are a lot better off with Alex Smith than they ever were with Kirk Cousins but the Saints are rolling.




So it goes as we fly into Week Five.