For Rest Of NFL Now What?

Superbowl LIII overanalysis will happen in due course, but right now it's best to take a quick look at the other thirty teams and where they stand entering the off-season.

Worth noting is the universal hatred of the New England Patriots.   That the Patriots keep winning AFC Championships inevitably has gotten boring and tiresome to most, as objectively speaking one should want other teams like Tennessee, Kansas City, etc. to break through.   The Patriots though are not supposed to roll over. 

So these other teams need to figure out how to beat them.




AMERICAN FOOTBALL CONFERENCE -



Kansas City Chiefs - Perhaps no team has more to work with now than the Chiefs.  The biggest issue facing them is their history.  In fifty-nine seasons they have 479 total wins, but just ten of them are playoff wins, among the weakest playoff records in league history - and five of them came in the AFL era with three AFL titles and Superbowl IV.   They have now lost to all five AFC East legacy teams (this includes Indianapolis, an AFC East team 1970-2001) and their legacy has not been Hank Stram, 65 Toss Power Trap, or that long-ago Superbowl; their legacy now is a team of heartbreak.

Rearming for 2019 should not be a problem; overcoming their history is the issue.   Certainly Patrick Mahomes looks to be the one who can do it, having once and for all proven he can handle the playoffs.



San Diego Chargers - Yeah I know they play their home games in a rinky-dink soccer stadium in LA and are supposed to be part of the Rams' new LA Stadium Entertainment Park in Inglewood, CA in 2020, but there is zero LA audience for the Chargers.   They also showed some glaring coaching weakness in the rout at Foxboro with a defensive gameplan that never seemed to be adjusted even as the Patriots kept on scoring   Philip Rivers had a superb overall season but 5-6 in the playoffs and a pedestrian 84 passer rating within at his age indicate we've seen the best of him and now the Chargers need to start preparing for a successor while also addressing coaching gaffes on display in Foxboro.



Denver Broncos - Since starting 7-3 in the 2016 season it's all fallen apart for John Elway.  The Broncos are now 13-25 coming out of their 2016 bye week and they now do not have a viable quarterback.   One feels bad for Case Keenum after his spectacular 14-4 season with the Vikings but it's now obvious he was a one-season wonder, and Elway's competence as a GM becomes more of a question.   Right now the Broncos look like a team in long-term struggle.



Oakland Raiders - After Jon Gruden's first year back as head coach, what are the Raiders?   They have a big problem for 2019 of not having a home stadium with their deal at Alameda County Coliseum now done, to where they may play out the season in San Antonio's Alamodome.    Yet an overlooked aspect of their season was they got better in the final seven games, winning three of them including tense affairs against the Cardinals and a Steelers team they've largely owned since 2009.   So the more Gruden guys come into the team, the better it would seem they are becoming.   How much better they can get remains the big question.


*****



Buffalo Bills -  They made the playoffs in 2017 but with rookie Josh Allen they faltered to just six wins.   Allen had the usual rough rookie season for quarterbacks but his was rougher than most with his completion percentage stuck in the 50-percent range almost all season until he broke through with three scores in the season finale's 42-17 rout of the Dolphins.   Offensive Coordinator Brian Daboll and his history of weak offenses did Allen no favors, so what he truly can be may not show up in 2019, though improvement is certainly a must.



Miami Dolphins -  The Ryan Tannehill era may be over and Patriots Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores may become Miami's new head coach - already scuttlebutt is Patriots WR coach Chad O'Shea will take over as OC.   More scuttlebutt is the Dolphins will tank the season to be able to draft one of the hotshot passer prospects coming out for 2020, a strategy that worked for the Suck-For-Luck Colts of 2011.   But the Colts still had a history of success at that point and Luck largely kept that reputation going - the Dolphins haven't had much success since 2003, and it's hard to envision a turnaround in 2019.



New York Jets -  The Jets may have played Suck For Sam in 2017, but is Sam Darnold truly as good as expected?  Darnold accounted for all four Jets wins but was stuck at 57 percent completion and came under fire for his effort against the Vikings, a game where the 3-3 Jets went into a Jet-like collapse of 1-9.   Adam Gase - Miami's ex-coach - takes over after the failed Todd Bowles experiment, but how much better if at all is Gase?


*****



Baltimore Ravens -  The Ravens won the AFC North and have hitched to Lamar Jackson, but Jackson's mediocre passing ability throughout the season after replacing presumptive cap casualty (and possible trade bait) Joe Flacco stood out even as he won six of his eight total starts.   He posted passer ratings in the 100 range twice in a three-week span, then regressed down to the 78-81 bracket, and his weak effort in the playoff loss to the Chargers bodes poorly down the road - he's another athlete who thinks he's a quarterback but doesn't play the position credibly; that he finished a close second in rushing behind Gus Edwards is a bad sign for a quarterback.



Pittsburgh Steelers -  No evidence of a disciplined culture.   Finger-pointing.   Players carrying themselves as entitled brats.   Coaches doing nothing discernible to correct errors.    Such is the Steelers and their third season this decade out of the playoffs - and just 3-5 in playoffs since losing to the Packers in the Superbowl - raises anew the question of how a team this poorly run can win as much as it does.   Certainly the talent is there in bunches; the effort, though, leaves everything to be desired.



Cleveland Browns -  In contrast the worst team this decade or any other may actually be becoming a genuine contender.   Baker Mayfield may be a jerk who patterns his game after the wrong guy - Mister Interception Brett Favre - but it's clear he's the quarterback they've desperately needed all these years.   Winning five of their last seven games and the heartbreaker at Baltimore indicate a Browns team that's finally going somewhere.



Cincinnati Bengals -  The Marvin Lewis era is over and with the reported hiring of Zac Taylor as head coach and Brian Callahan as Offensive Coordinator, the Bengals have to get more out of a talented squad that fell apart after starting 5-3.   Andy Dalton is presumptive starter for 2019 but it's clear he plateaued in his first five seasons; Jeff Driskel won just once in five starts in 2018, so we doubt he can be the answer there.


*****



Indianapolis Colts -  It's clear Andrew Luck is back.   It's also clear that isn't enough.   Losing to a Chiefs team the Colts have owned since 1990 is a terrible sign going forward.   The overall comeback after Luck's lost 2017 and the 1-5 start to 2018 certainly bodes well going forward.



Tennessee Titans -  Injuries to Marcus Mariota helped ruin a positive debut season for coach Mike Vrabel, but the loss of Delanie Walker in the first week wound up hurting the offense all season.   The loss to San Diego wound up being the one that got away on the missed two-point conversion, but getting embarrassed by the Colts again is exactly what now is stopping this team from advancing farther.   The second year for Vrabel and a revamped staff will be a sign going forward, and keeping Mariota healthy is a necessity.



Houston Texans -  Deshaun Watson's comeback boosted the Texans to the division title, but an utterly listless performance in the playoffs raises questions not only about Watson but also coach Bill O'Brien, who finally broke out of his 9-7 rut with eleven wins.   Now the Texans need to see if Watson, only into his third season, can advance his game; his 103.1 passer rating is fantastic and all but the same as his injury-shortened rookie year.   So there's ample reason for optimism here.



Jacksonville Jaguars -  Shockingly for a Tom Coughlin team the Jaguars regressed into the kind of undisciplined gaggle of ego-drunk losers that never goes anywhere.    The rumor of a trade for Joe Flacco should tell you everything about the irrelevance of Blake Bortles now, but getting this team back into a disciplined program is paramount. 




NATIONAL FOOTBALL CONFERENCE -

 New Orleans Saints - No, Gayle Benson and everyone else - not calling pass interference on the late Rams drive (it simply isn't as clear cut as people say it is, especially given the real officiating problem is over-officiating) is not the problem here.   The problem now is squarely Sean Payton and Drew Brees.   That Brees failed to top 4,000 yards for the first time in his Saints career was surprising but ultimately irrelevant.   The reality is Payton and Brees presided over blowing a two-touchdown lead just as the Eagles had blown a two-score lead the week before.   They now have a playoff record of 8-6 together, certainly nothing to be ashamed of but also not a record befitting the hype that periodically engulfs discussion about them - and more fatefully not a positive sign going forward given their age.   The overall roster is manifestly better now after the 2014-16 period of losing records; finding answers they have had trouble finding in the playoffs is the key for 2019.



Atlanta Falcons -  The Steve Sarkisian period is now over and can't be considered much of a success.   Now the Falcons have to figure out how to become a playoff contender again with a new staff, and also try to get more out of Matt Ryan, whose career has been defined by underachievement.   Shoring up line play is certainly a necessity; Ryan wound up getting sacked 42 times in 2018 despite a passer rating of 108.



Carolina Panthers -  Cam Newton is now the problem.    The team's owner's comments about his shoulder before Newton underwent surgery carried with them inference that the Panthers are tiring of Newton, whose game has not shown sufficient growth and in fact looks stuck in neutral, especially after the season collapse endured by the Panthers.   We're not sure Kyle Allen, winner vs the Saints, is the answer there, but it's worth keeping an eye on.



Tampa Bay Buccaneers -  So is Jameis Winston the answer, or the problem?  Is ex-Cardinals wonderboy Bruce Arians the answer?  Ryan Fitzpatrick started seven games and his 100 passer rating tops Winston's 90, but Winston won three games to Fitzpatrick's two.   They combined for some 5,100 passing yards, but just five wins out of that doesn't augur well.   Neither does Tampa's less-than-inspiring run defense that gave up 1,900 yards on the ground, nineteen scores, and 4.7 yards per carry   It hasn't been working for the Bucs, we're not sure 2019 will see much improvement.


*****



Dallas Cowboys -  Sean Payton to Dallas?   That rumor recirculated following New Orleans' playoff loss, but seems unlikely.   Certainly the Cowboys took a step forward in 2018 after a 3-5 start and their defense against the Saints late in the regular season opened a lot of eyes.   But it's clear Jerry Jones' boy Jason Garrett does not have what it takes to coach in this league.



Philadelphia Eagles -  Remember Lane Johnson's stupid rant about the Patriots not having any fun and his team being a fun team?   Fun teams don't win and the 2018 Eagles proved that again.  The upshot is Nick Foles had to come in as a relief quarterback just like in 2017 and darn near replicated his preposterous Superbowl rally again.   So now the Eagles have to ask themselves - is Carson Wentz really that good?



Washington Redskins -  Now the league itself is getting tired of Dan Snyder and his incompetent meddlesome ownership as the Skins finished 7-9 after a 6-4 start and losing new quarterback Alex Smith to gruesome injury against the Texans.   It's impossible to forsee any improvement here.



New York Giants - A 1-7 start and a finish of 0-3 - with a 4-1 middle - was another subpar season for Eli Manning, the guy they can't get rid of - which leads to the question of how hard they're trying to get rid of him.    This is another team where improvement is difficult to forsee.


*****



Chicago Bears -  Believe it or not there's reason for optimism after a stunning 12-4 season.  Mitchell Trubisky showed legitimacy in throwing for 24 touchdowns and a passer rating of 95.   The defense got hype galore with the trade for Khalil Mack and leading the league in fewest point allowed.  The drawback is they didn't face more than three legitimate quarterbacks and their only win against one was Week 2 vs Russell Wilson's Seahawks.   So the Bears still have to shore up things, especially on offense.



Green Bay Packers - The Packers fired Mike McCarthy but didn't try to get a coach who will challenge Aaron Rodgers.   Instead they looked for a cipher and Matt LaFleur does not look like someone who will challenge Rodgers.   The Packers are letting Rodgers run the offense and that's a sign they will keep losing after going 13-18-1 the last two seasons. 



Detroit Lions - Offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter was fired after being elevated to the position  halfway through 2015, and Matt Patricia's rough first year now needs to start getting better and the culture of the team needs to begin changing.   Player resentment at Patricia his first season was open but the old Lions way wasn't and won't work, so they need to listen to Patricia and start doing what they're told.     



Minnesota Vikings - The Vikings didn't listen to the truth about Kirk Cousins - a loudmouthed mediocrity who never elevates his game when needed.  They're thus stuck as a team 8-8 or 9-7 despite a good defense and a strong overall roster.    Don't expect improvement with Cousins.


*****



Arizona Cardinals - Normally one-and-out isn't the right approach for handling the coach but a paltry three wins and dismal performance from the highly-touted rookie Josh Rosen are more than enough to justify firing the coach.   Everything needs to get better here. 



San Francisco 49ers - Did the Jimmy Garoppolo era end before it began?   Another season, another season-ending injury, and Garoppolo's streak of wins as a starter ended and he won only once in three starts.   CJ Beathard's career is an obvious failure at 0-5 last year.   Nick Mullins, the undrafted walk-on for the 2017 Niners, wound up starting half the season beginning with a delightful 34-3 embarrassment of the Raiders.   He won just three of his eight starts, but it's a start nonetheless, so we await what transpires next.   His four touchdowns in a losing effort against the Rams was also noteworthy and a good sign going forward.



Seattle Seahawks -  A roster makeover several years in the making is now paying off as the Seahawks started 4-5 then won six of their last seven and most impressively had a plus-16 turnover differential.   Russell Wilson's 35 touchdowns got overlooked in the aura of Patrick Mahomes and others, but they showed anew Wilson is for real.  Not much improvement is needed here. 



So it goes as the Superbowl counts down.

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