NFL's Top 50 Catches Of 2016

The top fifty catches of the 2016 NFL season.

NFL Says Merry Christmas

Every touchdown from Week 15

Now we're down to two games to go, and remember when thirteen teams were 1-3?  Well entering Week 16 seventeen teams (nine AFC and eight NFC) have winning records while the Bills, Colts, and Vikings are all at .500 - far deeper competitively than I suspect anyone thought would transpire way back after Week Four.   None of this of course does anything for the winless Browns or the hopeless NY Jets or for that matter the Jaguars, Rams, 49ers, or Bears.

So it goes for this weekend - an NFL Merry Christmas cavalcade of picks -


Eagles over NY Giants - The Giants are all but in the playoffs but their longtime stuggle against the Eagles is still a factor, especially after stunning the Eagles earlier this season. Philly lost a heartbreaker last week and being spoiler to the Giants is appealing for the Eagles.


Bears over Redskins - The Redskins had their destiny in their hands and failed, and now they face a Bears team showing more fight with Matt Barkley of late.


Dolphins over Bills  - The Dolphins have the playoffs in their sight and made a statement with their backup quarterback, and they face a Bills team that's lost five of its last eight games with lameduck coach Rex Ryan and perhaps lameduck starter Tyrod Taylor,


Vikings over Packers - The Packers squandered a big lead at Chicago last week and managed to grab the win, and they face a Vikings team that's lost seven of its last nine games, but has a two-game streak over the Packers heading to Lambeau.  


Titans over Jaguars - Doug Marrone takes over as Jaguars coach and has a respectful resume from his two seasons coaching the Bills; he faces a Titans team that is on the march and has won five games against teams with winning records so far this year, so it's doubtful Marrone can author the turnaround now.


Patriots over NY Jets - The Jets packed it in last week against Miami - which doesn't mean a thing given everyone goes all in to beat the Patriots.  New England though is clicking all around despite only sixteen points scored at Denver.  


Chargers over Browns - The Browns have been hopeless for a long time even with a collapsing Chargers team that blew it last week yet again.


Panthers over Falcons - The Panthers ground out an important win last week and the Falcons have the Buccaneers hard on their heels despite the loss at Dallas Sunday night.  The Falcons hammered two hapless NFC West teams - no doubt remembering all the abuse they took as a member of the NFC West - but face a sterner foe in the Panthers, plus the Falcons have been a little spotty with a 3-2 record the last five games.


Raiders over Colts  - The Colts got back on track at Minnesota to the surprise of a lot of people, but the Raiders ground out a needed win last week and are far tougher than the Colts.


Seahawks over Cardinals - It simply wasn't meant to be for the Cardinals this season and a successor to Carson Palmer now needs to become a matter of exploration.


Buccaneers over Saints - The Bucs ground out a 16-11 win over the Saints the first time around and the inconsistency of Drew Brees in general and against Jameis Winston in particular continues - Winston has won two of his first three meetings with the Saints while the Saints were one of those thirteen 1-3 teams, except they haven't responded, going only 5-5 since then.


Rams over 49ers - Both are dismal; one is worse (the Niners) so interim coach John Fassel can get his first win here.   The longer term headache remains Jared Goff, woefully incapable of handling the NFL game.


Texans over Bengals - Tom Savage is now starter and not too soon with the Titans breathing down Houston's neck.   The big question for the Bengals is not whether Marvis Lewis should be fired - it's why has AJ McCarron not replaced Andy Dalton?  Dalton has not shown evidence he can get better; McCarron has already proven he can handle playoff football.


Ravens over Steelers - A lot of people are fooling themselves into thinking the Steelers are a Superbowl-caliber squad; the reality is they've been owned by the Ravens since the 2010 season (the Ravens have won nine of the last twelve meetings), are only 9-5 with four of their losses coming against winning teams, and haven't reached 30 points scored since the loss to the Cowboys.   The Steelers haven't been a Superbowl-caliber team since they last went to the AFC-NFL Title Game and have only one playoff win since the 2010 AFC Championship Game.  


Chiefs over Broncos - The Broncos' collapse continued with the loss to the Patriots and an argument between Aqib Talib and Russell Okung after that game, to go with pathetic trash-talking from Emauel Sanders about Malcolm Butler even though Butler contained Sanders more effectively than anyone else so far.   The Chiefs are now in must-win mode while the Broncos have lost all momentum.


Lions over Cowboys - It didn't look it against the Giants as Matthew Stafford once again failed on the road against a quality opponent, but the Lions still have momentum for their first division title in nearly three decades and the Cowboys got back into the win column but are still vulnerable.   Overall Stafford's play has improved to where winning road games against quality opponents isn't necessarily impossible anymore, though he has to actually start doing it, and now.


Merry Christmas from the NFL - which means Not For Long, Jerry Glanville.

NFL Playoff Race Tightens With Titans And Others

The Patriots took a more solid hold on the AFC's top seed with a clutch Monday Night victory over the Ravens.

The undisputed highlight was Brady's Moss-esque bomb to Chris Hogan.



So with three games to go the playoff push keeps getting more interesting the next sixteen games become all the more important, so we look ahead to this coming weekend -


Seahawks over Rams - Jeff Fisher is now gone and the Seahawks come in smarting from being humiliated by the Packers. Jared Goff is clearly a failure and the suddenly-struggling Seahawks are in almost must-win mode, especially with the return of their old road struggle bugaboo.


Dolphins over NY Jets - The Dolphins dodged a bullet with injury to Ryan Tannehill not as bad as feared after the win over the Cardinals. They go to Metlife Stadium still with a legitimate playoff shot and facing the 4-9 Jets. The caveat here is Bryce Petty began to show improvement, albiet against the 49ers and amid rumblings Todd Bowles will be fired after the season.


Lions over NY Giants - Matthew Stafford has the Lions at 9-4 (the same record as the Giants) and has won fifteen of his last twenty-one games including his last two road games. The Giants defense is clearly stout, but the offense is not, with Eli Manning seemingly locked onto Odell Beckham Jr. at the expense of others, plus Beckham hasn't been all that good the last five or so games. Eli's passer rating (87.8) is well below Stafford's (97.8).


Vikings over Colts - The Colts have actually gotten better in road games lately, winning their last three including only the third career win over an AFC East opponent in Andrew Luck's five seasons in the league. But the 6-7 Colts remain an iffy team with just 38 points in their last three losses. The Vikings aren't exactly great shakes either at 7-6 but they go for the sweep of the AFC South, something their division rivals certainly can't claim this season, and despite his struggles Sam Bradford's passer rating (98.2) is higher than Andrew Luck's (95.3). This one could produce quite a few points. Expect quite a bit of the run as well as neither team's run defense is much (both teams average a combined 4.4 yards per carry allowed)


Titans over Chiefs - I'm going out on a limb on this one given Kansas City's superb season presently with the AFC's second seed. The Titans, though, have shown the most growth with Marcus Mariota (his 99.1 passer rating is higher than Alex Smith's 92.7) and presently are 11th in scoring compared to Kansas City's 14th; the Chiefs though have the decisive edge in points allowed (8th compared to Tennessee's 20th). The big weakness for the Chiefs is run defense (27th in the league) with the Titans third in rushing yardage. The other weakness is Andy Reid is 1-5 lifetime against the Titans.


Bears over Packers - This one screams mismatch, but the Packers have been far more inconsistent than usual and the Bears have changed quarterbacks and with Matt Barkley they've shown more competitiveness. The Packers are also just 4-3 in their last seven division games and remain the frontrunning phonies they've always been under Aaron Rodgers. The subplot here is the rumor of ex-Colts GM Bill Polian coming to the Bears front office, a rumor Polian has denied for now.


Steelers over Bengals - The Andy Dalton era Bengals have never matched up well with the Steelers and the Steelers got a break when the Ravens fell on Monday Night.


Ravens over Eagles - In typical low-class and delusional style Terrell Suggs - curiously held on the sideline for lengthy periods when the Ravens defense was on the field in Foxboro - vowed the Patriots "had better hope" they don't play the Ravens again. First, though, he and a Ravens offense that exploded against Miami but looked confused against the Patriots (and where a rift of sorts has developed between Joe Flacco and coordinator Marty Mornhinwig) need to shoot down a falling Eagles squad whose playoff hopes are gone and whose quarterback in Carson Wentz has been in something of a freefall. This task gets harder with a meltdown by Steve Smith and admission by Suggs that the Ravens were rattled - "we're all a little messed up."


Bills over Browns - The hot rumor here is that Rex Ryan is on his way out and Anthony Lynn supposedly will take over, with quarterback Tyrod Taylor benched for rookie Cardale Jones. The Bills get the winless Browns this week to try and right this ship.


Texans over Jaguars - Only on paper has Blake Bortles outplayed the woefully inconsistent Brock Osweiler; in the actual games (of which Houston has won the last five against the Jaguars) the Texans remain in the division hunt with the Jaguars trying to pick up the pieces; an interesting subplot here is rumor that the Jaguars will reach out to their first ever coach, Tom Coughlin.


Falcons over 49ers - Suddenly the NFC South isn't so secure for the Falcons with the surging Buccaneers breathing down their throat, so beating the abysmal 49ers is a must for Matt Ryan's bunch.


Cardinals over Saints - By now it's clear - Drew Brees is done as a title-contending quarterback (or even one who can win a lot of games - 26 losses the last three seasons and just one winning season the last four) and Sean Payton has shot his bolt as Saints coach. The Cardinals haven't taken any next step and their playoff hopes are gone, not to mention playing with questions about their coach's long-term health. But the Cardinals are still decent on both sides of the ball, though drawing up a replacement for Carson Palmer needs to become a priority.


Raiders over Chargers - The Raiders appear a playoff lock at 10-3, but need to win out and get help to win the division. Tennessee can give them some help at Kansas City and the Raiders get a Chargers team with one division win the last two seasons. Philip Rivers is finished as a relevant quarterback and the Chargers coaching staff has now proven they can't handle it.


Patriots over Broncos - The Patriots defense sent a message on Monday Night - they're not as bad as they looked earlier this season. The Patriots offense also sent a message - it finally is starting to ween Tom Brady off the Edelman binky. Julian Edelman was targeted fifteen times with just seven catches, and he wasn't the decisive weapon in Monday Night's game; those were Martellus Bennett - who now looks healthy after several weeks appearing somewhat hobbled - James White (81 yards on three catches), and Chris Hogan. Malcolm Mitchell also made key catches and a touchdown. The Patriots also defied the analyses about the Ravens run defense and put up 95 yards on the ground; LeGarrette Blount increasingly looks like the workhorse back the Patriots usually don't utilize. They have this against a shaky Broncos team exposed as such by the Titans last week between first-half rushing struggles and also Trevor Siemian's failure to finish a comeback effort.


Buccaneers over Cowboys - Suddenly the Cowboys look one-dimensional as Zeke Elliott appeared to be their only offense in their third straight loss to the New York Giants, and one labors to remember one clutch catch made by Dez Bryant; one certainly remembers his fumble. Turnovers have been a plus for the Bucs, plus-eleven in turnover differential the last eight games, though only plus-one compared to the Cowboys in that same span. The last two games have been instructive as the Bucs have scored 44 points to 24 for the Boys. The big advantage for the Cowboys is the Bucs' run defense can be eaten up by Elliott and company.


Panthers over Redskins - The Panthers' atrocious start continues to cripple their season with the playoffs now gone; they have though won four of their last seven games with two of the losses in that span stunning gag-jobs against AFC West foes. The Redskins in that same span are 3-3-1 and have lost two of their last three with more than 27 points scored only once in their last nine (the Panthers have broken that total twice in the last three weeks). While it's clear Jay Gruden and Kirk Cousins are building something positive in DC they do not appear ready yet for the next step.


So we await Week 14.

Approaching The NFL's Final Four

The New York Jets have become the New York Jets again - the personification of laughable incompetence.

The NFL is now entering the final four weeks of its 2016 season, and there are still some playoff races to be determined, so we look ahead to Week 14.

Some bad play has hurt quite a few teams and Week 13's blooper reel is worth a gander.


Chiefs over Raiders - The Chiefs back in Week Four looked like a developing trainwreck the way they got destroyed by the Pittsburgh Steelers; now they are a juggernaut after winning on - of all things - a pick-Two.   They beat the Raiders in Oakland already and so aren't afraid of the Raiders in KC.


Titans over Broncos - On paper this doesn't look like a favorable matchup for the Titans coming off their bye as they get the 8-4 Broncos, a team that's won four of five previous meetings with the Titans as a Tennessee team.   The Broncos defense remains stout, albeit not as good as advertised as shown by the four losses (even with that the Broncos are sixth in fewest points allowed), and this is Marcus Mariota's first meeting with the Broncos.   One area that may be an advantage for the Titans is the Broncos run defense is allowing 4.2 yards per carry, with the Titans averaging 4.8 YPC and Mariota's redzone efficiency and ability to look off opponent defenses will certainly be tested with an opponent in Trevor Siemian who has won a lot of games but really hasn't shown advancement in his game as the season has gone on.


Dolphins over Cardinals - The Cardinals stopped the bleeding with their win over the Skins, but have to travel to a Miami team that's smarting from getting humiliated by the Ravens and is lightyears better than anyone thought they'd be, especially with regard to Ryan Tannehill's play versus an aging Carson Palmer.


Vikings over Jaguars -  The regression of Blake Bortles has been stunning and disheartening given the progress people thought was there in 2015; with that progress clearly illusory the Jaguars have plunged into yet another losing season, with a winning season no closer to this organization than it was before the season started.   The Vikings are reeling and need this win a lot more than the out-of-it Jaguars do.


Bengals over Browns -  The hopelessness of the Browns doesn't require any elaboration, and the Bengals finally began to turn things around in embarrassing the Eagles last week.


Steelers over Bills - The Bills now appear to be falling out of contention with another Rex Ryan promise unfulfilled as they get a Steelers team that got a big win last week.  


Colts over Texans  - It's now clear Brock Osweiler was a mistake, as the more he plays the worse he seems to get; it's also clear Andrew Luck showed something we thought he didn't have with his first win over an AFC opponent since 2012 (and first over the NY Jets).   It's also clear that Bill O'Brien is not capable of grooming quarterbacks, having failed to groom one to any kind of legitimate extent in his time in Houston.


Eagles over Redskins - The Eagles now appear eliminated from playoff contention, but the Redskins now appear to be sliding out of contention and the Eagles want momentum, and can get it in spoiling someone else's playoff hopes.


Buccaneers over Saints - The Saints are falling apart and Drew Brees can no longer be considered an elite quarterback.   The Bucs meanwhile are now on a legitimate surge - all the way to the division lead - and Jameis Winston more and more is developing into the real deal.  


Panthers over Chargers - The Chargers blew it yet again.   Needing to lead a comeback, Philip Rivers threw another killer INT.   Like his former Chargers teammate Drew Brees, Rivers simply is not elite and never will be again; if anything both are net liabilities for their teams.    The Chargers now have to go to Carolina, itself fighting ineptitude and what appears to be a looming disciplinary issue after Cam Newton was benched for the opening play at Seattle.   In a battle of bad teams that should be good, look for the Panthers to salvage some pride. 


Lions over Bears  -  Matt Barkley is now Bears starter and his passer rating, touchdown to INT ratio, and completion percentage are the worst of the three starters the Bears have fielded.   The Bears now have to go to a surging Lions team that - believe it or not - now looks like a team that can win at least one playoff game.    They of course have to get through the remaining four games first.


49ers over NY Jets  -  Right now one wonders if Blaine Gabbert will start after Colin Kaepernick completed one pass at Chicago and the Niners celebrated what they thought was a touchdown and got penalized for the laughably protracted celebration.  But if the Niners are the worst team in the NFC the Jets may actually be worse than the Browns in the AFC after their atrocious performance against the Colts.    They appeared to quit against the Colts long before the fourth quarter and have huge salary issues with utter failure by most of their big name players.  


Seahawks over Packers - The Packers won last week but their dismal performance against Russell Wilson gives the Seahawks an edge despite not winning in four of their road games.   The Packers remain the ultimate frontrunning fraud and didn't exactly acquit themselves all that hotly against the Texans.


Falcons over Rams -  The Falcons are faltering again but get a dismal Rams team whose starting quarterback in just a few games looks like a failure; Jared Goff has shown no competent reading of the field and seemingly no ability to establish any command of the quarterbacking position. 


Cowboys over NY Giants - The Giants have had a strong season but losing to the Steelers comes at the worst possible time with the Cowboys - unbeaten since losing to the Giants in Week One - looking for payback in Metlife Stadium, and where in 2015's Metlife match honorary Giants captains actors Peter Hermann, Mariska Hargitay, and their little angel August proved a good luck charm for the Gints, that mojo doesn't look effective against Dakota Prescott and company.  

2014's playoff shootout remains the signature game between the Patriots and the Ravens


Patriots over Ravens - Much discussion has been made downing the Patriots defense for ostensible poor performance against quality opponents, ignoring the Patriots are 3-1 against such opponents so far and giving up 31 points to the Seahawks is not terribly impressive in today's game; that particular game came down to a surprising failure by the Patriots goalline offense.   The Patriots are now working with a different offensive setup with Gronkowski on IR but showed some depth in the offense and some physicality against a Rams team starting to make cheap hits and face a deadly but still erratic Joe Flacco.    Flacco's erraticism shows in that the Miami win was just the third time the Ravens scored over 25 points this year and the Patriots are plus-nine in turnover differential compared to the Ravens coming in - Flacco by himself has eleven INTs compared to New England's combined eight turnovers.  With all that expect points to pile up.



The countdown begins.......

NFL's Thanksgiving Feast

The struggles of Brock Osweiler against the Raiders testified to his weakness as a quarterback and is a bad sign for the Texans going forward.


The NFL now hits Thanksgiving week and the smorgasboard becomes more appetizing as the final run to the playoffs kicks off on Thursday.  


*****


Lions over Vikings - The Lions now lead the NFC North and would host the Redskins in the playoffs as of right now.   The Lions' run from a 1-3 start has been strong and the Vikings continue to look shaky as Sam Bradford's effectiveness may have already peaked.


Cowboys over Redskins - The Cowboys are officially back, 9-1 and hosting the 6-3-1 Redskins after Week Two's close loss at FedEx Field.   Right now the only thing stopping the Cowboys would seem to be the question of whether they can win in the playoffs.  


Steelers over Colts -  Neither team is looking strong enough to take control of their scenarios, both at 5-5 and shaky as such.   Pittsburgh, though, has won four of the last five meetings and Andrew Luck may not even play after being beaten up in the Titans game.


Texans over Chargers - The Chargers season looks now to be over, despite reportage from Bert Breer than they will in fact give San Diego one more season to try and get a new stadium there - though again it begs why the Chargers can't simply refurbish Qualcomm the way the Dolphins redid Joe Robbie Stadium.   The Chargers have gagged up twenty-two turnovers and Philip Rivers has not been clutch for several years now, going against a Houston team that's unbeaten at home despite Brock Osweiler's struggle.  


Dolphins over 49ers - Total mismatch.   Colin Kaepernick has quit on winning; Ryan Tannehill appears now to be getting a new lease on life under Adam Gase.  One wonders if the Niners front office kicks out Chip Kelly after one year; certainly Kaepernick has to go.


Saints over Rams  - Remember the old NFC West and how the Saints were division foes with the Rams?  The Saints would like to resurrect memories of Los Angeles, as thirteen of New Orleans' 31 wins against the Rams came in the 1987-94 period when they were still in LA.  The Rams' poor performance against the Dolphins showcased why Jared Goff was kept on the bench until now, as he did nothing indicative of a quarterback of the future.   The Saints' much-mocked defense has improved the last five games despite a 2-3 record in that span.

Bills over Jaguars - What has happened to Blake Bortles?  It doesn't get any easier against a Bills team that is in the top-12 in points on both sides of the ball and has only gagged up six turnovers where Bortles now has thirteen INTs.  


Titans over Bears - Another bitterly close loss to the Colts; one of these days, Morton, wunna these days, POW! RIGHT IN THE KISSER!  That has to be the Titans attitude toward the Colts as they travel to face the moribund Bears, 2-8 and stuck with Jay Cutler.   Marcus Mariota's quarterbacking keeps getting better and this should begin a late-season turnaround for a Titans squad whose improvement by now is obvious.


Bengals over Ravens -  The Bengals are out of the playoffs, but the Ravens have not shown they belong in them, and the recent history has been all Bengals in this rivalry.   The big question mark is whether Andy Dalton can make other receivers into weapons with AJ Green presumably on the shelf.


Falcons over Cardinals - The Falcons have lost three of their last five but get a Cardinals team that has not shown it can take advantage of it.   Carson Palmer's effectiveness may be at an end.  


NY Giants over Browns - It's a case of no hope for the Browns this year - and maybe a long time down the road.   Nothing has been done right by the Browns almost since their rebirth, and the Giants, with the playoffs there for the taking in the tough NFC East, are in no mood for sympathy.  


Buccaneers over Seahawks - The Seahawks are clearly back to playoff muscle, but their past as road non-warriors has curiously crept back into the fore, with both losses plus the tie at Arizona being road games.   They travel to a Bucs team that's been putting up points the last five games and has won three of them, with Jameis Winston now at twenty touchdowns.  


Patriots over NY Jets - Never an easy matchup for the Patriots, the Jets benched Bryce Petty because of a poor performance against the Rams and are restarting Ryan Fitzpatrick.   The Patriots have come under fire for defensive struggles but the benching or trading of several players has hidden that there was some improvement in discipline on defense after the loss to the Seahawks - a game where the defense improved in the game's second half.   Injuries on offense should be more worrisome to the Patriots with Rob Gronkowski possibly out for awhile due to a lung injury.


Raiders over Panthers - It's not the same Panthers of 2015, and it's definitely not the same Raiders, who are now the AFC's top seed.   The rebirth of the Raiders has been one of the stories of the season - to where the conspiracy buffs have come out of the woodworks regarding officiating in the Raiders' favor.


Broncos over Chiefs - The Broncos are not as good as often hyped to be, but the Chiefs after a tough loss to the Bucs aren't in better shape, though they lead the league in turnover differential (plus-thirteen) and are fifth in points allowed compared to Denver's ninth.    This could be a lot closer than it looks.


Eagles over Packers - The Packers are now in freefall and staring at falling to nine losses with this game plus upcoming tilts with the Vikings, Lions, and Seahawks beckoning.   Aaron Rodgers is not a winning quarterback now as his weaknesses as a quarterback have become more prevalent - lack of reads, insistence on freelancing - against an Eagles team still fourth in points allowed despite losing five of their last seven games.  



So Happy Thanksgiving

NFL Hits Week Ten

The Seahawks and Patriots are the most anticipated game coming up this weekend. Picks for the week -


Ravens over Browns - The Browns have been in freefall all season and the Ravens, as inconsistent as they are, are not enough of a pushover for the Browns to turn it around.


Panthers over Chiefs - The Panthers are now starting to get their fight back and they face a good Chiefs team that has played better but hasn't shown enough muscle to truly contend beyond the first round of the playoffs.


Saints over Broncos - The Broncos got pushed around by the Raiders and Trevor Siemian may be reaching the first-year wall.   The Saints defense isn't that hot but has played better of late.


Vikings over Redskins - The bitter loss at home to the Lions came in the first game since the surprise resignation of Norv Turner, so the Vikings offense is still in a mode of getting used to a different playcaller.   The Lions, though, are clearly of a different caliber to the Redskins, who are good but not great.


Falcons over Eagles - Suddenly the Eagles are not as good as we thought they were and they get a Falcons team that so far hasn't shown sign of faltering.


Rams over NY Jets - The New York-based TV series Law And Order Special Victims Unit is reaching its 400th episode, and will presumably soon surpass the 402 career wins the Jets are stuck on as they host the struggling Rams, where controversy over Jared Goff and the complete lack of snaps he's taken this year continues to build.   LA's 3-1 start is history, and so are the Jets despite those two stunning wins the two weeks before their loss at Miami.


Jaguars over Texans - The Jaguars haven't beaten the Texans since 2013 and only scored fourteen points in their first game with Nathaniel Hackett as offensive coordinator.   The Texans, though, despite being 5-3 have gotten there with a subpar offense that's exploded only in spots.   Brock Osweiler still has not made the jump forward as a quarterback people expected him to make.  


Titans over Packers - It's clear now the Packers are not as good as advertised, and watching Aaron Rodgers play one sees more and more a lack of true quarterbacking acumen - as in reading of defenses, setting up for short passes, etc.   Rodgers' game looks less and less like a pro-style offense and more like freelancing and huck it deep and hope someone can go get it.   The Packers are 11th in scoring at 24.8 PPG while the Titans are at 24.1.  Marcus Mariota keeps playing strong and needs to start stringing together more wins; at 4-5 the Titans have already taken a step forward, now they need to take more such steps.


Buccaneers over Bears - One finds it impossible to trust Jay Cutler despite the win over the Vikings and despite the struggles of Jameis Winston (currently at only 59% completion) and the former NFC Central rival Bucs.   They need to start turning it around; a Bears team all but dead last in points scored looks like a good place to begin.


Chargers over Dolphins -  Miami has leaned on Jay Ajayi of late but the Chargers run defense has played better of late and the Chargers D has forced eighteen turnovers so far, though they face a Dolphins team that hasn't coughed up the ball since the loss to the Titans.   Three straight wins have put the Dolphins back into relevance in the season, but it's the Chargers with more to gain here.


Cowboys over Steelers  - Don't buy the hype.   Ben Roethlisberger is not as good as people thought and the Steelers showed they're eminently beatable in losing three straight and scoring just 45 points in the last three games combined, this facing a Cowboys team that has scored 64 its last two games.   Winning the NFC East seems a formality for the rejuvinated Cowboys; making the playoffs looks out of Pittsburgh's reach.


Cardinals over 49ers -  Colin Kaepernick showed far more last week in almost reaching 400 yards, but managing just 23 points out of it (with a pick to go with three more Niners fumbles) shows anew the lack of winning ability as they face a Cards team coming off its bye.

Patriots over Seahawks -  It's the rematch of the week as the Seahawks and Patriots renew acquaintances.   The Seahawks are 5-2-1 after a grinder of a Monday Night win but has continued to struggle to score, as they face a Patriots team that has averaged 34 points the last four games and has the two tight-end set it has sought since the criminal implosion of Aaron Hernandez.   Seattle's defense also isn't as good as advertised, shown in getting pushed all over the field by Buffalo.  


NY Giants over Bengals - The Giants pulled off a rare win over the Eagles and now face the inconsistent Bengals, coming off their bye week and the improbable tie with the Redskins in London.  The Giants, despite being 24th in scoring, have won three straight since the Josh Brown brouhaha; they have, though, gagged up six turnovers the last three games.



So we await the beginning of the second half of the 2016 season.  

The Mess Of NFL Week Four

The NFL season has become a mess with surprises and disappointments galore in Week Four and already a disturbing percentage of the league has been eliminated from playoff hope.

Carolina's loss to the Falcons - which included injury to Cam Newton - apart from being a surprising resurgence for Matt Ryan (though flying out of the gate is something we saw from the Falcons last season), was just one of a striking number of games that illustrated a disturbing pattern this year, as even before the Sunday Night affair between the Chiefs and Steelers a whopping thirteen teams stood at 1-3 with the Browns buried at 0-4.  Being 1-3 is the traditional death knell for playoff chances. One offhand can't remember the last time so many teams - in essence half the league - were realistically finished from playoff contention this early in a season.

Three-fourths of the AFC South stands at 1-3 with the Houston Texans at 3-1. The Colts staged a strong rally against the Jaguars in London but Andrew Luck's traditional monopoly over division opponents didn't come through and he has a terrible record over his last ten starts. The Titans meanwhile yet again failed to finish a comeback attempt as they erased a 17-3 gap and later tied the game 20-20 but gagged on a punt return. The loss leaves Marcus Mariota stuck on just four wins in his still-short career.

In contrast the Denver Broncos just keep rolling along almost unchallenged, even after Trevor Siemian was injured and had to be taken off on the meat wagon; rookie Paxton Lynch didn't miss a beat in his first NFL action. Meanwhile Jameis Winston has fallen to 1-3 and the Bucs are in the bottom half in points scored, with only six teams in the conference with fewer points scored.

The Cardinals are another 1-3 team, but the bigger surprise is the 3-1 Rams and Case Keenum.   Jeff Fisher had struggled to surpass 7-9 records since being hired by the Rams in 2012 but he won against enough quality foes to stay, and so far patience is beginning to pay off.   The Cardinals meanwhile lost Carson Palmer to a concussion and even without that they've needed to question the wisdom of keeping him with the scattershot quality of his entire career. 

The resurgence of the Oakland Raiders continued with a close win over the Ravens - last year's shootout win introduced the league to Derek Carr and this win may propel him further.


Of course the elephant in the room that got slayed by Gwangi is the New England Patriots and the 16-0 shutout by Rex Ryan and the Bills.   Jacoby Brissett illustrated the myth that is "anyone can win in this Patriots system," because his play was singularly embarrassing - they didn't trust him to run the offense so they ran a laughingly dumbed-down offense and even that was too much for him with few completions and nothing to show for it outside of a few completions to Martellus Bennett.   Getting Tom Brady can't come too soon with the Patriots now the #2 seed in the AFC and the hated Broncos still cruising.  


So what to conclude right now?  Some big picture takes -


With half the league realistically out of the playoffs, the best bet for them is to just stay their course and keep fighting, stop worrying about making the playoffs, worry instead about winning the next game - and the next one, and the next one.....

Oakland and the Rams illustrate that staying the course does work, and there is legitimate talent on a lot of those 1-3 teams - and even on the 0-4 Browns.  

Even with that some of these teams need to start preparing for change - the Saints for one need to start considering a post-Brees (and perhaps even post-Payton) era; the Chargers likewise have been stuck in mediocrity with Mike McCoy and Philip Rivers; if Josh McDaniels indeed becomes a candidate for a head-coaching job in 2017 Tennessee (which wanted him for this year but couldn't wait longer than it did for him to become available) should get him because it's a good environment for him.

That's just a few areas where change is needed or appears to be inevitable as 2016 has yet to play out.

NFL Week Three Heightens Expectations

All of Week 2's touchdowns as we count down to Week 3

The NFL enters Week Three amid some genuine shockers but also amid a surprising - and surprisingly sharp - drop in TV ratings; explanations for why have varied between boycotting of Colin Kaepernick, boycotting of Roger Goodell, the absence of Tom Brady, the retirement of Peyton Manning.   Certainly there is likely some element of all involved.   A correction was probably overdue so right now one should not be excessively worried. 

Certainly it's not for lack of competitive games; the first two weeks have been strikingly well-played and competitive, and expectations have thus been heightened for Week Three.   Picks for the week -





Patriots over Texans -  Jacoby Brissett has to start with the out-of-left-field shoulder injury to Jimmy Garappolo and his unplanned foray into the NFL against the Dolphins showed his rawness but also showed there is legitimate ability there.   He will certainly have better preparation knowing he's going onto the field so leading more than two scoring drives should be a given, though one should keep an eye on Stephen Gostkowski after his stunning gag of a makeable late FGA.   They face a Houston team that's clearly on its way to a strong season with Brock Osweiler, a guy clearly not intimidated by facing the Patriots, but with a defensive front led by JJ Watt that isn't any better than the Cardinals and Dolphins fronts the Patriots O-line has manhandled already, plus Watt has been decidedly quiet against the Patriots in the past, notably last season in his own house.  


Cardinals over Bills - The Cardinals showed they mean business by laying 40 on the Bucs and they go to New Era Stadium for a Bills opponent that fired their offensive coordinator but that put up 31 points last time out. The Ryan brothers are buffoons, though, so they will find a way to lose.


Panthers over Vikings - The Vikings are onto something this year after stunning the Packers, but they go to a Panthers team that was stewing over the lost opportunity at Denver and responded by breaking out of a competitive game against the Niners and turning it into a massacre. A key matchup to keep an eye on is Sam Bradford to Stefon Diggs, who exploded against the Packers.     


Broncos over Bengals - This one I think will be tighter than some may expect. Clearly there is no collapse for the Broncos as Trevor Siemian has already proven doubters wrong with poised play, but this is his first road trip and he goes to a Bengals team hitting its home opener. The Bengals got embarrassed last week at Pittsburgh and have the talent to fight back given the opponent, the defending champs, and one recalls the last time the Broncos visited Cincinnati. The matchup to watch is AJ Green vs Aqib Talib.


Lions over Packers - This is an upset pick for me; both teams are 1-1 and both are coming off losses. The Lions, though, face a Packers team that has now lost four of its last five division meetings and hasn't won a home game against the division since 2014. The Packers also have signs of locker room dissension with one of Aaron Rodgers' O-linemen calling him out publically after the loss at Minnesota. Rodgers' inability to lead a comeback when he has to erase a gap of at least two scores showed up again at Minnesota.   


Ravens over Jaguars - Suddenly the Baltimore Ravens are stringing together wins again after a head-shaking 2015, while the Jaguars still have not taken that next step, and looked awful at San Diego last week.  


Dolphins over Browns - Only the Browns.   They go to a shellshocked Dolphins team hitting its home opener with a revamped Joe Robbie Stadium - now sporting sponsorship from Hard Rock - and with a quarterback in Ryan Tannehill playing his way out of the NFL.   But the Browns have bigger problems - they fell apart against the hated Ravens and such collapses usually bode ill for the season. 


NY Giants over Redskins - They didn't do it against the Cowboys and now the Redskins face a 2-0 Giants squad that's eking out grinders of wins.  

Andre Johnson's game-winner at Detroit

Titans over Raiders - This could be the highest-scoring game on this week's slate as Marcos Mariota and Derek Carr lit it up in their preseason matchup and their teams are 1-1; Carr has exploded the Raiders to 63 points scored while Mariota staged a memorable comeback from down two scores to beat the Lions; his touchdown to Andre Johnson was an absolute thing of beauty.   Anyone for a Titans-Raiders playoff meet?


Seahawks over Forty-Niners -  The Seahawks are struggling out of the gate having lost on the road again to the Rams, and they face a Niners squad that Blaine Gabbert has made into a team that's not the joke their backup quarterback has become.   The Seahawks did win their home opener and the Niners come back from the East Coast and Russell Wilson is the kind of quarterback who can start turning things around fast.


Buccaneers over Rams - Tampa Bay's obliteration by the Cardinals was the punch in the face that should motivate them to lash it out against a Rams team traveling from the West Coast to the East and which has shown zero offense.  


Chargers over Colts - There is an ominous sign for the Colts. The opinion has been expressed that the Colts made a fatal mistake signing Chuck Pagano instead of Bruce Arians, but the real warning sign is Andrew Luck may have plateaued in 2012-13 and simply can never be the transcendent quarterback his talent promised he'd be. He lit up the scoreboard at home against the Lions and still lost, then struggled against a Broncos team he'd dominated. San Diego has won six of the last seven meetings with the Colts, and Philip Rivers is 1-0 against Andrew Luck so far.


Chiefs over NY Jets - The Chiefs are smarting after losing to the Houston Texans, and they face a high-scoring NY Jets team that's looking like a team going for the playoffs.   I doubt Andy Reid will let the loss in Houston carry over to this meeting with the Jets, a team Reid has yet to lose to. 


Eagles over Steelers - The Steelers have a potent offense and a proven championship quarterback, but in the Eagles they face a team that's well ahead of expectations and has a quarterback in Carson Wentz who's looking like the real deal.


Cowboys over Bears - Why John Fox keeps Jay Cutler remains baffling as he is a failure, as Dak Prescott steadily proves himself to be one to watch down the road. 


Saints over Falcons - Neither team has proven they're up to a playoff bid, and one should start to be concerned that Drew Brees is no longer the elite competitor.   Matt Ryan certainly is not an elite anything even with a strong win at Oakland.  


So we await Week Three.

NFL Week Two Quick Takes

The NFL hit Week Two and the surprises of the season have already started.

The first Thursday Night game of the year was the most competitive Thursday Night game in years - it got weirder as offensive coordinator Greg Roman was fired, reportedly by ownership - a bad move as meddlesome ownership never succeeds.

No surprise hit harder than Jimmy Garappolo's shoulder injury after torching the Dolphins

Jacoby Brissett had to come in cold and it showed - what also showed is there is legitimate quarterbacking talent here

The Titans erased a 12-point gap to stun a high-flying Lions squad in their home opener

The questions must be asked more and more about Andrew Luck and whether he plateaued as a quarterback in his rookie season, while Trevor Siemien is establishing himself with the Broncos and Aqib Talib exploded

Another young quarterback is starting to get something good going as R. Dakota Prescott grabbed his first career win

The Vikings won their second straight over the Packers despite a serious injury to Adrian Peterson, an injury that may not be as onerous as it appeared. It also showcased the continuing weakness of Aaron Rodgers in his inability to lead a comeback down by two or more touchdowns - and Rodgers' bad habit of trying to extend plays too much got called out by Packers O-lineman T.J. Lang -

"Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to blame someone else. We definitely have to be better up front, but it felt like there were a couple of plays there where it starts to get five (to) six (to)seven seconds, and it can be a little frustrating at times."  

Those who will criticize Lang need to keep in mind Rodgers' career-long weakness when having to lead a comeback, having won just four games in his career when trailing by more than one score.  

The news for the San Diego Chargers was not their 38-14 massacre of the Jaguars - the news from CBS' pregame show is Chargers ownership has given up on the city and is prepping to play in LA in 2017, presumably Carson, CA - which raises anew why the NFL allows such nonsense and why these teams don't get the hint from the Dolphins and spend the money to refurbish their existing arenas.

Only the Browns, up 20-0 to a Ravens team that has - quietly - stormed to 2-0

Remember when Blaine Gabbert was a failure with the Jaguars? Despite getting crushed at the end by a Panthers team still stewing over blowing a winnable game at Denver, the Niners have shown more fight than we thought they might have and it's clear Colin Kaepernick's bitch act is just the flailing of a guy who can't play

With the Seahawks suddenly struggling the Cardinals are taking early control of the NFC West

NFL Week 10 Looks To Go Herb Alpert On Us

The NFL last week went all Herb Alpert on us - when they said come flay with me the footballs did just that, and when teams needed their game to Rise, they went Beyond and the result was a plethora of amazingly taut games. So now we enter Week Ten and suddenly things are not what they seemed. My picks -


NY JETS over Bills - Both teams are .500 or better (the Jets are 5-3) entering this game; the Jets have the better overall team though I give Tyrod Taylor a slight edge over Ryan Fitzpatrick; the biggest edge lays in coaching as Todd Bowles has made the Jets professional in contrast to the chaotic freelancing of Rex Ryan in Buffalo.


Saints over REDSKINS - The Saints have all the edges - quarterback, coach, team culture, etc. - and are smarting over a bitter loss last week even though they're still in the wildcard hunt even at 4-5.


EAGLES over Dolphins - Philly's rough start appears to be behind them while Miami's momentum from the promotion of Dan Campbell now looks gone.


RAMS over Bears - Jay Cutler pulled off a preposterous win at San Diego, but the Rams are made of sterner stuff than that; coordinator Gregg Williams got called out by the Vikings and by Rodney Harrison, and it looks to be firing up the Rams.


TITANS over Panthers - The Titans have owned the Saints since Jeff Fisher took over the then-Houston Oilers and have averaged 27 points scored in the last six games; they have Marcus Mariota back, their defense looks to be playing substantially better of late, and the change in head coaches paid immediate dividends.   Now the Titans get the unbeaten Panthers, a team they've beaten three straight times and which has struggled to close out games of late while the Titans have played comeback football pretty much since the Bucs game.  


Jaguars over RAVENS - This rivalry used to be about streaks - the Jags won the first ten meetings dating to the final year of the original Cleveland Browns.  Now they've seesawed the last five meetings and the Ravens come off their bye still uncertain about what they are as the Jaguars have played better the last two games.


BUCS over Cowboys  - Neither team is a playoff contender, but the Bucs are starting to establish some legitimate muscle under improving quarterback Jameis Winston as the Cowboys flail away with six straight losses.


STEELERS over Browns - Suddenly the Steelers may not know who their quarterback will be with Roethlisberger's latest foot injury; it won't matter against a Browns team still with a quarterback controversy in Johnny Turnovers.


PACKERS over Lions - The Packers got exposed the last two games but the Lions look to be imploding and the guy they thought would be their quarterback of the future looks more and more like their quarterback of the past.


RAIDERS over Vikings - Both teams are far ahead of where they were, and the Raiders under Derek Carr and an improving roster are showing they're for real.   Expect something akin to the shootout in Pittsburgh here.


BRONCOS over Chiefs - The unbeaten season is now gone, so the Broncos get the Chiefs again, one of the teams Peyton Manning owns, bad arm or no bad arm.


Patriots over NY GIANTS - We know the recent history.   We know the bitterness of the three straight losses by the Patriots.   We also know the Giants remain the inconsistent team they've long been; they force turnovers except the Patriots generally don't give up turnovers; their defense has been speared (19th in points allowed) and Brady has elevated his game even as Eli Manning is now more comfortable in the offense installed last year.  


SEAHAWKS over Cardinals - The Seahawks started slow last year and then raced to the Superbowl.   The Cardinals remain a legitimate NFC contender, so this game should be a grinder to the end.


BENGALS over Texans - Cincinnati remains on a roll and Houston remains iffy on their quarterback and in general; their vaunted defense in particular is a joke now even at eighth in passing yards allowed per game.   Look for Andy Dalton and his arsenal of pass-catchers to have another feast.


One more note - the injury to Andrew Luck may not change much for the Colts going forward, since Matt Hasselback showed he can still win in a relief role and a schedule that takes a turn for the better with perhaps five eminently winnable games left.


So we await.

NFL 2015 Week One Observations

The 2015 season is underway and Week One offered up some surprises, which seems characteristic of the opening week of the NFL season.  Some observations -


While the Patriots keep winning, the Steelers (and the league) make excuses - The story of the Patriots' 28-21 win over the Steelers - their tenth in their last fifteen meetings - was Pittsburgh's protest about its coaching radios fuzzing up - the NBC telecast made it out to be the result of Patriots jamming and Mike Tomlin all but openly asserted such in his postgame presser.  The league somewhat belatedly acknowledged the radio fuzzing was nothing untoward (this after several rival coaches stated flatly it wasn't the result of any jamming), though it led to an uncharacteristic slam of his critics by Belichick in his Friday conference call.   It reflects what radio personality Glen Ordway has called an agenda by the league - to punish the Patriots by constantly portraying them in an evil light.  


The Jets get a big win thanks to the incompetence of Johnny Fumbles - Now we know that Johnny Manziel will never amount to anything in the NFL.   There were five Browns turnovers in all and Manziel fumbled twice and also threw a pick - it showcases Manziel's undisciplined approach to the game and the twelve penalties further shows the Browns do not play smart football, they try to win with athleticism and nastiness. 


Andrew Luck continues to fail against the AFC East - The Bills hadn't beaten the Colts in a real game since 1998 (Buffalo's 1999 and 2009 wins were against Colts teams resting for the playoffs).  This time around they got a solid performance from Tyrod Taylor to go with 147 rushing yards, this despite 113 yards of penalties (again, a sign of undisciplined play).  Andrew Luck is now 2-7 lifetime against AFC East teams - his only wins were against the Bills and Dolphins in 2012; his previous game against Rex Ryan was a 35-9 NY Jets win.  


Right now Tennessee owns the AFC South - Marcus Mariota won't get it this easy down the road, but his 42-14 evisceration of the Bucs is what good quarterbacks do to bad teams as he became the first rookie with four touchdowns in his first game since Fran Tarkenton crushed the Bears (in a game he didn't even start) 37-13.    It leaves the Titans as the only AFC South team with a win. 

Houston was expected to be a contender in 2015 but getting pummeled 27-20 by the Chiefs was bad enough; benching his erstwhile starter leaves Bill O'Brien with a bigger problem next week against a 1-0 Panthers team.  And while JJ Watt was in evidence, nobody else on that Texans defense could be found.


Right now Cincinnati owns the AFC North - We knew Pittsburgh and Baltimore would lose given they were facing teams that own them, and we had a feeling the Browns wouldn't show up - they of course didn't - so the Bengals shouldn't necessarily feel all that high right now, especially given their next opponent -


Philip Rivers redeems himself - Rivers overcame two INTs (one of them a Grover Quin pick six) and a 21-3 Lions lead to explode the San Diego Chargers to a 33-28 win; 404 yards and two touchdowns wiped out Matthew Stafford's day and leaves him still with a poor road record against quality opponents. 


Red flags for the Broncos - Peyton Manning beat the Ravens again - what else is new?  But the poor quality of his throws and needing Aqib Talib to win his latest feud with Steve Smith don't bode well for Peyton; needing to rely on the defense to win is not the formula for success - to where I'm tempted to predict Brock Osweiler will see some significant action this season.


Why didn't the Seahawks run Marshawn Lynch at the end of the Superbowl?  That's why - 4th and 1 and Lynch was stopped by the Rams for only their fourth win against the Seahawks since beating them in the 2004 playoffs.   Also getting questioned is the onside kick at the start of overtime, but overall this hame indicates the Rams are starting to get something going and the NFC West, and it was Game Of The Week


Despite the loss, the Eagles will be a force - What does a Pyrrhic victory look like?   In 2012 the Falcons hosted the Seahawks in the NFC Divisional Playoffs and blew a 27-7 lead; Matt Ryan drove the Falcons down for the winning field goal, but the damage was done - the Falcons blew a 17-0 lead in the NFC Championship Game and lost to the Niners.  Since then the Falcons have been a bottom-ten outfit.   Well it happened again as the Falcons raced to a 20-3 lead, blew that lead, clawed out a 26-24 lead, then needed a missed Cody Parkey FGA and a tip-drill interception to win a game they really had no right to win.   The way the Eagles rallied from a terrible start is what makes title contenders.


The Niners are supposed to be a mess, right? - Suddenly the NFC West looks like a four-way fight, as Colin Kaepernick showed a striking level of improvement in his decision-making in leading the Niners to an embarrassing rout of the Vikings, a team that has appeared to be on the rise.   Sustaining all of that remains to be seen, but this is a much better start than was reasonable to expect from a Niners team that looked on the ropes well before training camp started.



So it goes for Week One and Week Two awaits.

Patriots Get Smeared By Media Again

Suddenly the mantra that the New England Patriots are cheaters has become the Mainstream Sports Media's rallying cry yet again, this time on allegations made by an Indianapolis Colts TV reporter (from WTHR TV; the story was almost certainly leaked to WTHR by the Colts, with some scuttlebutt being Jim Irsay himself leaked the story) than the Patriots were caught deflating footballs in the AFC Championship Game, a 45-7 Patriots win in rain.   A D'Qwell Jackson interception of Brady ostensibly began the story.

Jackson, though, has denied his involvement, and a subsequent story that the Baltimore Ravens alerted the Colts to impropriety has also been disproved.  It is the first of the immediate problems with the story.   The league controls the footballs on gameday and between referees, security teams, and video cameras it is physically impossible to tamper with them.   Also, deflated footballs tend to be inferior in throwing, thus quarterbacks insist they be properly inflated (Aaron Rodgers' now-famous CBS interview in the 2014 season is an example); moreover the allegation that deflated footballs offer more grip is not plausible in game conditions.  

The atmospherics of footballs do change in game conditions, like NASCAR tires - David Pearson for one famously always told Glen and Leonard Wood, "blow the right rear up" to stagger the car and make it turn better; in the modern day of radial tires prerace underinflation is necessary to get pressures up to proper levels under racing conditions - and they are prepared for specific weather accordingly.

But it isn't stopping the media from fabricating a litany of cheating by the Patriots such as the four-lineman formation used against the Ravens.   Sports Illustrated wants to portray this as a circumvention of NFL rules because the Patriots ran a hurry-up offense with it.   It's no circumvention of anything.   SI also tries to claim Patriot ball boys spy on opponent locker rooms, except it physically can't be done; visitor team security controls visitor team locker rooms.   The story also dregs up Spygate, ignoring it was refuted by the fact of what the rulebook actually says, and even claims a gigantic television screen atop the CBS Scene somehow helps the Patriots sideline when it cannot be seen from inside the stadium.  Even worse, the piece claimed the NFL made rule changes in the wake of Brady's injury in 2008 - except the change in question happened in 2006 because of injury to Carson Palmer. 

The bottom line is there is no evidence of tampering - and on the contrary the actual evidence is indicative that no tampering happened.   The much-discussed Chris Mortenson report that eleven game balls were found underinflated loses credibility with each hour - according to Andy Hart the actual figure given was 0.2, not two - and following Belichick and Brady press conferences there clearly is some kind of disagreement between the Patriots and the league over what constitutes "underinflation."

The media's hatred of the Patriots is based on hatred of their "no-fun" approach to football.   They approach it as a machine-like endeavor instead of as a slapdash freelancing exercise.    Thus they lack the "fun" of other teams that don't win.  There is also the groupthink mentality permeating the media in general and the sports media in particular, where analysis counter to the established storyline has a habit of being suppressed - a saner media would have by now given substantial coverage of exculpatory information regarding the Patriots.

The entire episode yet again showcases the need for a substantial ideological change in the sports media (an example of such dissension can be found in this point-by-point examination of the Michael Rosenberg piece).   There is not supposed to be any groupthink, and objective benefit of the doubt is supposed to exist.   Sports Illustrated should be mocked and ridiculed for posting a dishonest story about the Patriots; instead the fact of the story being false is widely ignored.

The other angle is yet another reappraisal of Roger Goodell's competence as commissioner.   Adam Schefter has reported extreme difficulty at finding evidence, but the more plausible explanation is the league is trying to save face with an investigation it had no business undertaking.   It is indicative of Goodell that an investigation was launched at all and has floundered on its own lack of credibility.

Also warranting condemnation are the Indianapolis Colts, whose complaints initiated the controversy and which clearly had no justification for being made. 

The smearing has to stop.

Patriots Ravens Playoff Postgame

Quote the Ravens never more.

The Patriots-Ravens rivalry has become a bona-fide star vehicle in NFL circles and the 35-31 Patriots comeback stands as one of the league's signature playoff thrillers (doubly amazing given the Wildcard round is the round that usually produces the crazy playoff games).   There is naturally much to break down in this game.   My own observations -


----------


Tom Brady yet again proves it's quarterbacking and not defense or the run game - Tom Brady got next to nothing in run support and his defense was all but useless for extremely long stretches; even when the defense stood its ground better in the second half the ease with which the Ravens moved the ball was akin to watching another former AFC Central team, the old Warren Moon Houston Oilers.   Brady was also in spots under outright siege from the Ravens defensive front.

But Brady is the best playoff quarterback in NFL history for a reason - he stepped up his game and as he did he made the rest of the team better; the offensive line got stronger as the game went on and the defense finally started making plays in the second half.  

Brady in 2006 against San Diego became the first quarterback (in 27 tries to that point) to win a regulation-length playoff game by throwing over 50 passes; he matched that feat against the Ravens.  He also broke Joe Montana's record for most touchdowns in playoff games.

Joe Cool and Tom Terrific can share a Papa Johns pizza while chatting up their playoff careers, since as the commercial notes Joe Montana shows up for the playoffs, Peyton.


When Brady engages more people in the offense, good things result - Attention was paid to how Rob Gronkowski would handle the Ravens defense, but in a sense the more dangerous tight end weapon was Michael Hoomanuwanui (four catches for 43 yards) while Danny Amendola, much criticized by some fans because of injuries, took over several drives.  In all Brady completed 15 passes for 182 yards to the usual suspects, Gronkowski and Julian Edelman, but for a change they were not the focal point of the offense, especially when Edelman caught Brady's lateral and unloaded the touchdown bomb to Amendola - #11 throwing to #80 is so Drew Bledsoe to Irving Fryar of them.


This game showed how the Patriots do not miss Logan Mankins - Incredibly some local talk shows were resurrecting the trade of Mankins to Tampa Bay and how the Patriots may have made a colossal mistake doing so given the ostensible struggles of the offensive line late in the season.   Not having Mankins, though, exposed how much tougher the line now is - the line lost Bryan Stork yet as the game went on the line played better, to where it finally wore out the Ravens front; notable is the Patriots line held the Ravens' trash-talking resident fatass Terrell Suggs to half a sack and one overall tackle.  


For once the refs deserve some criticism - Normally I don't go after the refs for how they officiate a game, but the Ravens definitely benefitted from several dubious calls on the Patriots, notably the penalty where Steve Smith got away with a push-off while he drew a phantom holding call that wiped out a Patriots strip-sack of Flacco near the Ravens goalline.   The Ravens also were engaged in the kind of after-the-play cheapshottery that teams at least borderline dirty need to succeed.


The Ravens really are a dirty team - Bill Belichick normally does not bring up an opponent's tactics and when he does it's because there's usually something there.   The Ravens' employment of cut-blocking tactics has been controversial from the old Denver Broncos days, such as when Bryan Cox had his leg broken in 2001 in a game at Denver.   It showed again in numerous skirmishes on the field (including a reported confrontation after the game between Steve Smith and former Patriot and Panther Jermaine Wiggins), but it also showed in John Harbaugh's meltdown and inability to handle the Patriots' O-line combos in the second half - when bullies get exposed, they vent impotently; such was John Harbaugh.


This game also showcased anew Joe Flacco's flaw as a quarterback - There is certainly no question Joe Flacco has proven himself as a real playoff quarterback and overall a pretty good one, but this game also showed how dependent he is on pass interference penalties to move the offense.


Justin Forsett is a stark Raven beast - He busted out 129 rushing yards and some five yards per carry, doubly amazing given he got no help in the ground game from anyone else.


The Ravens are better on fourth down than third - The Ravens converted all three fourth-down plays, as opposed to being 1 for 9 on third down.


Was that Roger Goodell going Bill France Jr. on us? - Back in the day NASCAR president Bill France Jr. famously bought his hotdogs during Daytona races from the regular food stands alongside regular fans.  It was curious seeing NFL head honcho Roger Goodell shivering in the regular grandstands for this game.


Patriots win in an overlooked stat - The Patriots won the contest of average yards gained per offensive play - 6.4 YPP versus the Ravens' 5.9.



So the Patriots await the Indianapolis-Denver game while the Superbowl rematch with the Panthers will have to wait another year.

More Goodell More Of The Time

Roger Goodell went before media on Friday with a news conference where he again accepted blame for recent NFL controversies involving Ray Rice, Adrian Peterson, etc.   The ensuing presser lacked much detail despite some tough questioning, and of course led to widespread media ripping of Goodell - much ink was spilled on Tedy Bruschi's call for Goodell to be removed as NFL commissioner, while lost in the shuffle was reporter Pam Oliver (one of the best sideline reporters in the business; she famously stood up to loudmouthed receiver Keyshawn Johnson for instance) and her positive assessment of Goodell's presser.

Following the presser came another Outside The Lines story, this one delving into the Baltimore Ravens and their lobbying of the courts and Goodell on Rice's behalf - that ESPN even sees fit to examine team lobbying for Rice makes it out to be sinister, as though a team shouldn't be lobbying for a player when it has legitimate grounds to do so - it is impossible, for instance, to see the New England Patriots not quietly lobbying the courts if some form of exculpatory information ever surfaced regarding Aaron Hernandez.  There is also that the report in effect lets coach John Harbaugh off the hook by portraying him as someone who wanted to cut Rice when the incident took place where team owner Steve Bisciotti and the Ravens front office lobbied for him.   The Ravens deny that Harbaugh wanted to cut Rice and the obvious implausibility of that angle of the Outside The Lines report lends credence to the denial.

Lost in the coverage and the continued round of media grandstanding is that it still does not make a credible case against Goodell's initial handling of the Rice incident.  Where Goodell and the Ravens warrant criticism was in hanging Rice out to dry - this after the media (specifically TMZ) launched a grandstanding/armchair lawyering campaign, trying to reverse the initial two-game suspension without facing that the objective facts of the incident meant it legitimately did not warrant more than a two-game suspension.  

The whole Ray Rice and domestic abuse controversy is not about Rice or even Goodell - it is about media grandstanding and armchair lawyering.   More responsible coverage would have noted that it wasn't an unprovoked attack and that Rice was a first-time offender who did what was required of him by the law enforcement people and the courts, and there would have been some significant dissent from the established narrative that Rice should have been punished more.  

And for all the "moralistic preening and voyeuristic pandering" (as Politico so superbly put it) about the NFL and domestic abuse, the league is far and away cleaner than societies here or abroad, and the umbrage over the league's ostensible lack of a domestic abuse policy ignores that the percentage of accusations that are false is far too high for the league (or anyone else) to ignore.  

Yet for all that, the answer may have been stumbled upon with the new suspension with pay approach used by the Arizona Cardinals, the Carolina Panthers, and the Vikings in their recent issues of certain players arrested on domestic abuse accusations.   This appears to be what teams will follow from here on.

The Mainstream Media (political and sports) warrants its share of criticism over Ray Rice etc.  It's not just "J'Accuse!" to be aimed at Roger Goodell or the Ravens.

The Ray Rice Argument Gets Hit

The AP examined video initially released by TMZ but here augmented with audio of the fight between Ray Rice and his then-fiance that got him a two-game suspension at first but which swelled into a media-led crusade against Roger Goodell. TMZ released video of the fight, and it led to a firestorm and subsequent release of Rice from the Baltimore Ravens and indefinite suspension from the NFL.

The TMZ video led to this firestorm, but AP's additional analysis shows the fight was not a case of unprovoked assault by Rice. Rice certainly deserved suspension for two games from the NFL, but the attack on Goodell for the alleged leniency of the punishment completely ignores that the balance of information did not warrant punishment beyond what Goodell implemented.

This is another example of seeing a video and assuming it is the full story when in fact it is exactly the opposite. The balance of information is that Rice did something wrong, his fiance also did something wrong, and Roger Goodell, examining the incident on all information and on its own merits, issued proper punishment.

The late Peter Braestrup warned about the kind of reaction we're seeing with Ray Rice when he noted that in terms of information, a video usually tells you almost nothing. What people need to do is stop reacting to a video and start examining an issue or incident based on as many facts as are available.

Update: see also this look at how TMZ engaged in fraudulent armchair lawyering.

See also the transcript of Goodell's interview with CBS, for ESPN's Outside The Lines on September 11 tried to claim Goodell was caught in a contradiction when he stated, "when we met with Ray Rice and his representatives, it was ambiguous about what actually happened."  The problem is the full transcript shows the term is not a contradiction.

Some Takes As NFL Enters 2014

We are now closing rapidly upon the beginning of the 2014 NFL season, and as the final preseason games approach, some thoughts on the coming season -


*****


EASTERN DIVISIONS, SAME STORY - In the Eastern Divisions of both conferences the story is the same - New England and Philadelphia are head and shoulders atop, the other six teams are playing for 8-8.   The 42-35 preseason game between the Patriots and Eagles got a lot of flack for the enormity of penalties - and also got some pub because one of referee John Parry's line judges is one of the first ladies to officiate and NFL game, Maia Chaka - but the enormity of scoring by all three strings of both teams plus the need for a Patriots goalline stand to win it was competitively compelling, preseason or not.   Both appear to be playoff locks already.

That isn't the case for the other six teams.   The Giants and Jets played a good competitive game and it illustrated some decent form for Jets quarterbacks while raising questions about the Giants, who won 35-24 after trailing in the battle of the Ones 17-14.   Even with that, the Jets do not look all that strong and neither do the Giants.   Meanwhile Miami has shown some improvement but not enough, especially from Ryan Tannehill, to feel they've turned a corner.   The Cowboys meanwhile look the same - some flashy high-end talent but overrated quarterbacking and the spectacle of Dez Bryant's contract now hanging over Valley Ranch's head. 

The Redskins and Bills face the biggest questions as Robert Griffin III has clearly regressed and Kirk Cousins is outplaying him, while the Bills have brawled repeatedly and have ignored Doug Marrone about it, a very bad sign that they've quit on him.   E.J, Manual meanwhile has looked scared when playing with no evidence of any advancement as a quarterback, an even worse sign that 2014 will not be the beginning of a turnaround, but instead a further collapse of an organization already traumatized by the continuing ownership search.


*****


AFC NORTH LOOKS GOOD, NFC NORTH MEDIOCRE - The Bengals remain the team to beat in the AFC North, but the Baltimore Ravens look noticeably better than the squad that fell to 8-8 after blowing itself up to pay Joe Flacco.   Ex-Panther Steve Smith has put up some eye-popping numbers and looks like a good fit with the Ravens.    The Steelers in contrast look lost still, unable to build an offensive line that's any good yet again.  

The trainwreck here is the Browns, who've lost Josh Gordon for the year and perhaps 2015 and are stuck with Johnny Manziel after a tellingly subpar effort against the Redskins and an uneven one against the Rams.   Manziel looks more and more like Ryan Leaf the more we see him play.


In the NFC the North exudes little confidence.   The Detroit Lions look okay but remain needing to prove they can win more than they have with a roster as talented as any.    The Packers haven't shown they're any better than last year and the Bears were abysmal against the Seahawks, sign Jay Cutler will once again put up meaningless volume stats.   The Vikings have an intriguing quarterback issue in Teddy Bridgewater, who looks like he will become starter in a year or two.


*****


WILL THE SOUTH RISE AGAIN? - The top three quarterbacks in preseason play have been Tom Brady, Peyton Manning..............and the Titans' Jake Locker at 119.9 rating.   Andrew Luck and the Colts overall look solid again despite a subpar effort against the Saints, but the Titans with a new coaching staff in Ken Whisenhunt still show promise of a breakout.   The teams also to keep an eye on are the Houston Texans - who rebounded from a horrid first preseason game to show some legitimate form and have Bill O'Brien as head coach after his amazing job at the trainwreck that was Penn State - and the Jacksonville Jaguars as they have a potential quarterback of the future in Blake Bortles.

In the NFC the New Orleans Saints are yet again ready to explode.   The Carolina Panthers have been somewhat shaky in preseason, especially in a godawful performance against the Patriots, but still look stout enough to contend for the title.   There have been signs of improvement in Atlanta and Tampa Bay, though I have questions about Logan Mankins in Tampa given he was overrated despite being Pro Bowl caliber anyway, and there was the sharp decline of his play in Foxboro after giving up eleven sacks in 2013.


*****


GO WEST - The obvious starting point is the Seahawks - the one thing right now that stands in their way is the Superbowl winner's jinx, where no defending champ has won a playoff game since the 2005 Patriots beat the Jaguars.   Even getting fined $300,000 (a third of it from Pete Carroll) by the league over off-season practices that were too physical isn't going to affect the Seahawks.

The team they beat in the Superbowl also looks ready, but not as good as last year's squad.  Peyton Manning's play has come under some fire over leaving Wes Welker in effect out to dry on the Texans hit and the fact is he remains the worst playoff quarterback since Dan Marino. That the Texans put up a legitimate fight in their game against Denver should be an encouraging sign for Broncos opponents.

The baffling team is the Chargers, who looked abysmal against Seattle and San Francisco after embarrassing the Cowboys.  One wonders how hard the Chargers were even trying there.

Kansas City is the puzzle, for the Chiefs have looked weaker now than last year, and their schedule is much harder than 2013.   Alex Smith is not the answer and it's puzzling Andy Reid isn't trying to develop a successor.

Back on the NFC side the 49ers suddenly look in trouble, even with a win over the Chargers.   Their quarterbacks have not shown competent play and one has to wonder if Colin Kaepernick is as good as people thought he was.   In even worse shape with quarterbacking is the Rams, minus Sam Bradford amid rumors of a possible effort to get Mark Sanchez or Ryan Mallett (and yes the Tim Tebow lobbying has been detected - ugh).

The team that may upset everyone is the Cardinals - they've become legitimately good and can get better, though Carson Palmer cannot be the long-term answer.  


*****


So it goes as we claw toward Week One of the season.



Oh, I forgot - the Raiders are a lost cause. 

It's The Quarterback, Not The Defense

NOTE: Originally authored in April 2014, this piece has been updated in March 2015 and several times since:


As the NFL off-season drones on, there is a curious debate, and I've noticed in several forums it's taken a disturbing hold - that despite one of the all-time worst performances ever seen in a Superbowl - or any other playoff game for that matter - Peyton Manning is still somehow a superior quarterback to Russell Wilson, because "anyone can average fifteen points scored per game" (an ironic assertion given the 2015 Denver Broncos).   It ostensibly was the Seahawks defense that was the reason for the Superbowl success.

The critics of Wilson base this on the disparity of volume stats between the two quarterbacks, and the argument has been expanded to push the long-standing myth "defense wins championships."

By now people who watch football should know better.


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The Seahawks defense was ostensibly bad in Pete Carroll's first year there, 2010.   25th in points allowed with nearly 6,000 yards allowed, the 2010 Seahawks won an anemic NFC West at 7-9, then in the playoffs did something crazy - they defeated the defending Superbowl champions (the Saints) 41-36 before falling to the far-inferior Bears 35-24.   For 2011 the Seahawks defense stormed to 7th in fewest points allowed - yet again managed just 7-9 and didn't make the playoffs.  

2012 is when Carroll's Seahawks storm really got going, and while people will point to the Seahawks storming to first in fewest points allowed for two straight seasons, the real key was the Seahawks changed quarterbacks - from the erratic Tavaris Jackson to the unsung rookie Russell Wilson - and in the process they dumped their big-name free agent signing, Matt Flynn.   Wilson hit a 100 passer rating for the season, threw 26 touchdowns and just ten INTs, and even rushed for 489 yards and four touchdowns.   He also erased a 27-7 gap at Atlanta in the playoffs. 

Saying Wilson's defense is what won for the Seahawks is mind-bogglingly stupid on its face, because Tavaris Jackson had basically that same defense, as did the free agent Flynn; the difference was Wilson made plays; Jackson didn't, and Flynn played his way out of Seattle.    It becomes even more idiotic considering Russell Wilson saw his defense blow a ten-point lead in the second half of Superbowl XLIX and he had to average a shocking TEN yards per pass to come to the doorstep of winning it.

A further irony - Matt Flynn in 2013 wound up back in Green Bay as Aaron Rodgers' backup, but had to start several games that year, saddled with a defense that finished 24th in points allowed.   He nonetheless erased a 23-7 gap to the Vikings for a 26-26 tie, got smashed 40-10 by the Lions, then erased a 21-10 gap to beat the Falcons 22-21 and then erased a 26-3 to beat the Cowboys 37-36.  

With a worthless defense.

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And yet the myth of "defense wins championships" is a myth football people cling to with absurd tenacity. 

It's a myth pushed about such celebrated defenses as the 1985 Bears, the 2000 Ravens, and the 1970s Steelers - and yet each has a quarterback story that undermines the myth.

The 1985 Bears' genesis lay in the 1983 and 1984 seasons.   In Mike Ditka's second season as coach, with Buddy Ryan his defensive coordinator - and their now-famous internal feud - the 1983 Bears finished 8-8 and were 5th in points allowed.   Yet they dropped six of their first seven games before winning six of their last nine.   Second-year quarterback Jim McMahon started thirteen games with seven wins.   For 1984 the Bears stormed to 10-6 and allowed fewer than 3,900 yards of opposing offense; by any objective measure that was a better defense than the ensuing season's squad.   Yet they lost three of their last six games and used five different starting quarterbacks; Steve Fuller was made starter in the Bears' playoff run, defeating the defending NFC Champion Redskins before getting smoked 23-0 by Joe Montana's 49ers.

The 1985 Bears remain one of the most celebrated squads in football history, yet a fact gets overlooked about that 1985 team - the Bears offense exploded to 456 points scored, this after 1984's total of 325 and 1983's total of 311.   While turnovers by the defense had a role, the bottom line is scoring that many points can't be done without an offense that's working - and that can't be done without competent quarterbacking.   Yet the Bears offense is always overlooked because it was never as pretty as the defense.   McMahon was 11-0 as starter that year, while Steve Fuller started five games, winning four.


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The 2000 Ravens defense likewise saw its genesis from the previous season; under former Vikings offensive coordinator Brian Billick the unit reached sixth in points allowed in 1999.   Scott Mitchell had that defense and lost both his starts with the Ravens; Stoney Case won two straight, then lost two straight; after throwing three interceptions against Kansas City he was benched for Tony Banks.   In his first game Banks built a 10-3 lead against the Bills but couldn't hold it, despite the Ravens defense picking off Doug Flutie three times.   He then starting winning, crushing the Browns 41-9 and winning six of eight starts before falling in the season finale at New England.  

Banks started the first eight games of Baltimore's 2000 season - and was 5-3; the Ravens scored 16 points in their Week One win over the Steelers, but after putting up 39 over the Jaguars (the club's first ever victory in eleven tries - this dating to the Jaguars' debut 1995 season when the present-day Ravens were still the Cleveland Browns - over Jacksonville) and 37 on the Bengals, the Ravens offense under Banks broke six points scored only twice.

The Ravens then benched Banks and put in Trent Dilfer, considered a washout from erratic play with the Bucs.   After losing to the Steelers, Dilfer then did something overlooked in the romance about the Ravens defense - he started putting up points.   He won seven straight games and put up at least 24 in six of them.   He then put up 21 in Baltimore's first ever playoff win, 24 in the divisional round win over the hated Titans (the lone playoff game in Baltimore's run where they had to play from behind at any point), and sixteen in the AFC Championship Game over the Raiders,  and it wasn't about handing off to running back Jamal Lewis even though he had four rushing touchdowns that postseason - Dilfer delivered key touchdowns against the Broncos and the Raiders, allowing the Ravens defense to front-run.   

The Ravens defense were nothing but front-runners again after Dilfer delivered the opening touchdown against the overmatched New York Giants in Superbowl XXXV - where Dilfer played smart football in leading four scoring drives, Kerry Collins played Favreball, throwing four INTs - Duane Starks ran back one for a touchdown.

Dilfer was let go after that season and finished up in Seattle as Matt Hasselback's backup, while the famed Ravens defense went eight seasons with just one playoff win (over Miami in 2001) until Billick was fired and a quarterback who could sustain good play was drafted.   In the seven seasons following 2000 the Ravens went 60-49 with in essence the same defense that ostensibly was the reason for their 2000 success.   The difference between 2001-7 and 2000?   Trent Dilfer gave the Ravens competent quarterback play, especially in the postseason.   His successors (Chris Redman, Jeff Blake, Kyle Boller, Troy Smith) until Joe Flacco's arrival struggled to do so with his defense as his predecessors - Mitchell, Case, Jim Harbaugh, Vinny Testaverde - had struggled.

When the Ravens did get competent quarterbacking in that pre-Flacco period, they went to the playoffs.  While Elvis Grbac will not get benefit of the doubt in most analyses, the fact remains in his 2001 season with Baltimore he put up competent efforts for the Ravens to win, while Randall Cunningham closed out his career on a high note, winning both his starts in 2001 with the Ravens, beating Jacksonville and Pittsburgh.   The 2003 Ravens were 5-5 until Anthony Wright took over, authored the most famous comeback win in Ravens history, and won five of his six starts to win the AFC North title.    Steve McNair failed to finish his second season in Baltimore, but he won them 13 games in 2006 en route to another division title.


One further note should be made about the 2000 Ravens - though the statistics may say they were the best defense in the league, in reality they weren't - the defenses the football railbirds were talking about throughout that season was the Bucs and the Eagles, because they were taking on consistently better quarterbacks than what the Ravens faced and were "mauling" (Cris Collinsworth's description) their opponents.  


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The 1970s Steelers are another celebrated defense that gets the credit over the offense or the quarterback.   The Steel Curtain became a virtual official branch of the Pro Football Hall Of Fame, yet when the Steelers needed a defensive stand in their 1972 playoff game against the Raiders, the defense failed - it took a desperation heave by Bradshaw and the most controversial bounce in football history to pull off the most celebrated 13-7 game ever seen. 

Yet in 1973 the Steelers started changing quarterbacks - Joe Gilliam started once and lost 21-16 to the Browns; Terry Hanratty started four games with a 2-2 split.   Bradshaw came back for the playoffs and threw three picks against the Raiders.    And in 1974 it got worse - Gilliam started six games, winning four, yet also famously seeing a 35-35 tie with the Broncos and throwing two INTs in a shutout loss at home to the Raiders.   Terry Hanratty started against the Browns and won, but could no longer throw the ball, and finally Chuck Noll settled on Bradshaw as his starter - this for an offense that, unnoticed then and later, was sixth in scoring in the league.

Once Noll settled on Bradshaw, the Steelers started winning with more consistency, and continued to do so with Bradshaw.   Though he put up very sluggish numbers in the Superbowl IX win, it should be noted he still outquarterbacked Fran Tarkenton, who threw three picks in that game.   Bradshaw proved decisive in Pittsburgh's next three Superbowls, throwing the game-winning bomb in Superbowl X, then storming the Steelers to five touchdowns in Superbowl XIII - enough cushion for the defense that got shredded for 31 points by Roger Staubach's Cowboys - and finally overcoming three INTs to deliver the game-winning touchdown in Superbowl XIV against the Rams.  


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The Steelers went into a 1980s funk until Bill Cowher replaced Chuck Noll after 1991.   Under Cowher the Steel Curtain had a renaissance, and the Steelers became a playoff power again - yet despite appearing in Superbowl XXX they couldn't get over the hump.   Neil O'Donnell was signed by the Steelers in 1991, winning 39 of 61 starts but going 3-4 in the playoffs - his two ugly INTs to the inept Larry Brown in the Superbowl effectively ended his tenure there.

Yet the Steelers with Mike Tomczak and Kordell Stewart in the 1996-2001 period didn't get better - with "Slash" Stewart as 2001's full-time starter they went 13-3 and beat the Ravens in the divisional round of the playoffs - then the 2001 New England Patriots embarrassed the Steelers despite having to use two quarterbacks - and Tom Brady and Drew Bledsoe both outplayed Stewart.

Throughout this 1992-2003 period the Steelers defense was consistently top-ten in fewest points allowed, even when the Steelers failed to make the playoffs in the 1998-2000 period.   2002 was particularly instructive, for the Steelers defense was porous, allowing 21 points a game - Kordell Stewart finally flamed out and former Dan Reeves draft bust Tommy Maddox took over three games into the season, and the 0-2 Steelers promptly won five of their next seven games and authored a 34-34 tie with the Falcons for good measure; injury in a loss to the Titans sidelined Maddox for several games, but Maddox came back, finished up a 10-5-1 division title season, then stormed the Steelers to the stunning 36-33 comeback win over the upstart Cleveland Browns, before a bitter 34-31 overtime loss to the Titans followed.

For 2004 after a 6-10 season in 2003, the Steelers drafted Ben Roethlisberger to be Maddox's backup.  That role lasted two games; Roethlisberger took over in Week Three and started winning - and kept winning.   By season's end - with the same defense that suddenly couldn't win under Maddox - Roethlisberger had authored one of the most amazing rookie seasons ever seen, a Steelers club-record 15-1 season.   Though 2005 was rougher at 10-6 (this despite the defense being third in fewest points allowed that year) with injury forcing Maddox to start for several games, the Steelers made the playoffs and exploded to four straight playoff wins and the famed fifth Superbowl title.

The bottom line - the Steelers couldn't win with Joe Gilliam, Terry Hanratty, Mark Malone, or Bubby Brister - they got enough good play out of Neil O'Donnell, Kordell Stewart, Mike Tomczak, and Tommy Maddox to become a playoff contender again, but it was Terry Bradshaw and Ben Roethlisberger who ultimately were the reason the Steelers became champions.


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Perhaps the best illustration of the myth of defense winning championships remains the New England Patriots, whose defense under Bill Belichick has often been called among the greatest in history.    The reality, though, is opposite.   At the start of the 2001 season the defense was porous and had shown no ability to make clutch plays.   Then came the famous injury to Drew Bledsoe and Tom Brady's ascension to starter.   With that same defense, same offense, same everything that was outscored 33-20 in the first two games - and which throughout the season struggled to make third-down stops - Brady directed scoring drives; he led the Patriots to a stunning overtime comeback win over the San Diego Chargers; he led an offense that finished sixth in scoring; he erased a 13-3 fourth-quarter gap to win the infamous "Tuck Rule" playoff game; injury at Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship Game forced Bledsoe back onto the field and Drew shot down the Steelers despite a third-quarter rally; Brady then took over in the Superbowl, gave his defense a 17-3 lead in the fourth quarter - and saw that defense collapse to the resurgent Rams offense; Brady's answer was to author the first walkoff scoring drive in Superbowl history.

That so-called "elite" defense was abysmal in 2002 as the Patriots went 9-7 while in effect installing a new offense.   2003 the Patriots dubbed their defense The Homeland Security defense as it held opponents to a club-low 238 points allowed and 68 points allowed in Foxboro - and overlooked was its struggle against Steve McNair's Titans twice - getting gashed for 30 points in October while barely escaping via a McNair bomb bouncing off Drew Bennett's fingers in the divisional playoffs - the Dolphins at Miami, the always-troublesome Broncos, Peyton Manning's Colts at the RCA Dome, and finally the Superbowl against a Carolina Panthers team that may be the best team that didn't win a Superbowl.   Jake Delhomme and company speared the Patriots' vaunted defense and put up four touchdowns in the wildest Superbowl ever seen - and it was won by another scoring drive led by Brady.

It was more of the same in 2004 as the Patriots shot to another 14-2 season, crushed Indianapolis and Pittsburgh, then nearly blew a 10-point lead late in the Superbowl to an Eagles team in over its head with Donovan McNabb literally throwing up on the field then throwing a late interception to end the game - no endorsement of the Patriots' overrated defense this.  

Brady's next three trips to the Superbowl continued the pattern of the vaunted Patriots defense failing and needing to be rescued by Brady - except this time the collapses happened too late in the game for Brady to win.  It nearly happened again in Superbowl XLIX as Brady's Patriots fell behind Russell Wilson's Seahawks 24-14; Brady then speared the vaunted Pete Carroll defense for two late touchdowns.   Wilson then whipped the Seahawks to the 1-yard line; only there did a defensive play win the game after the Patriots defense was rescued yet again by Brady.



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Nowhere has Brady won via a defense worthy of being considered great.   And the quarterback he sought to emulate didn't win with a particularly great defense, either.   Joe Montana's 1981 breakthrough season with the 49ers was with a defense second in points allowed and plus-23 in turnover differential - yet he had to score 92 points - basically 31 a game - in the playoffs for the Niners to become champions.   His 1984 championship season was with the top defense in points allowed, though only plus-15 in turnover differential.  His 1988 championship was with a 10-6 team, a defense only eighth in points allowed and just plus-12 in turnover differential, and with the now-famous feud with Steve Young kicking into overdrive.  

Montana and Young's careers are defined not by their defenses, but by their performances, especially in clutch moments - the 1981 playoff win over the Cowboys, the bomb to Jerry Rice to beat the Giants in 1988, Young's touchdown run to beat the Vikings that same year, Montana's last-minute touchdown to win Superbowl XXIII, the comeback win at Philly in 1989, Montana's playoff comeback with Kansas City against the Oilers in 1993, Young's comeback at Detroit despite injury, the 1996 comeback win over the Bengals, the immortal touchdown to Terrell Owens to beat Green Bay in 1998.  


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Basically it comes down to the following -


When did the Steelers win with Joe Gilliam, Terry Hanratty, Mark Malone, or Bubby Brister?

When did the Ravens win with Vinny Testaverde, Jim Harbaugh, Scott Mitchell, Stoney Case, Tony Banks, Chris Redman, Jeff Blake, or Kyle Boller?

When did the 49ers win with Matt Cavanaugh, Steve DeBerg, Steve Bono, Tim Rattay, or Glenn Dorsey?

When did the Patriots win with Jim Plunkett, Cavanaugh, Mike Taliaferro, Joe Kapp, Tommy Hodson, Hugh Millen, or the immortal Michael Bishop?   Or, for that matter, with Tim Tebow?

When did the Rams' Greatest Show On Turf do anything with Tony Banks or Trent Green or Jamie Martin? 

When did the Cowboys win with Brandon Laufenberg, Steve Pelluer, Kevin Sweeney, Chad Hutchinson, Quincy Carter.............or Tony Romo? 

It's a myth that persists, as Lindy's Sports Pro Football 2014 Preview revives the hoary old argument how the top-scoring offense lost four of five Superbowls pitted against the top-scoring defense, and even notes the losing quarterbacks - Peyton Manning, Jim Kelly, Dan Marino, and Roger Staubach - completely ignoring that Staubach played the Steelers supremely tough BOTH times and they needed Terry Bradshaw to step up his game to win those games, and also ignoring that Marino, Kelly, and Manning were notoriously bad playoff or Superbowl quarterbacks - Marino and Manning are the two worst playoff quarterbacks of their generations and Kelly was in over his head once he reached the Superbowl.



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It's a hoary double assertion that defense wins championships and you have to establish the run, but by now knowledgeable football people should know better.   No defense ever won anything; no running game ever proved decisive - it's QUARTERBACKING that wins championships.


NOTE: further making this point is Kerry Byrne's dissection of the uselessness of ESPN's Quarter Back Rating statistic.