As we approach NFL Week Ten we saw some NHL action break out in Week Nine
A hit on CJ Beatherd led to a brawl with three ejections in the Cardinals rout of the Niners
Jameis Winston and Mike Evans got into it with Sean Payton and Marshon Lattimore
AJ Green and Jaylen Ramsey as the Bengals and Jaguars brought back some of the old hatreds of the AFC Central
So with players and teams demanding "Fifty-four forty or fight," the league takes the fight to Week Ten.
Cardinals over Seahawks - Are the Cardinals back in this? Adrian Peterson's rebirth (in three games he's hit over 300 yards and 4.2 YPC and even caught three passes for twenty yards) suggests they are, and they get a Seahawks squad still with a less-than-intimidating road reputation and whose homefield edge took a big hit with the loss to the Redskins. Seattle's kicking situation with Blair Walsh may now be a problem after three gags against the Skins.
Bills over Saints - The New Orleans Saints are for real again, 6-2 and in the thick of the NFC's race for the playoff byes. They are, though, 1-1 against AFC East foes this year and they go to Buffalo, a reborn outfit 2-1 against NFC South teams (head coach Sean McDermott also spent the previous six seasons as the Panthers defensive coordinator and went 7-5 against the Saints in that span) and smarting from an ugly performance against a Jets team they'd beaten earlier this season.
NY Jets over Buccaneers - A frontrunner for disappointment of the season, the Bucs have slid out of contention and Jameis Winston is getting hurt more often; he's been benched for the next three games by the team, ostensibly to recuperate from injury but his role in the sideline brawl may be a factor, while Mike Evans got suspended for one game.
Steelers over Colts - The Colts got a morale booster in winning at Houston, but they get a far better quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger (4-2 lifetime vs the Colts) this time around and it does not appear Jacoby Brissett can handle an opponent like this.
Titans over Bengals - The Bengals have slunk back into their previous status as The Bungles. AJ Green's fight in the Jaguars game was a graphic metaphor for the collapse of the team, and they get a Titans team now solidly on its way forward.
Vikings over Redskins - The Vikings lost to the Skins last season and enter at 6-2 to the Redskins' 4-4, and beating the Seahawks at Seattle is a big confidence-booster, but Minnesota looks to have more overall firepower.
Jaguars over Chargers - The Jaguars have turned back the clock to 1996-99 and look like they'll keep that memory lane trip going. The Chargers, though, have been scrappier than expected this season.
Bears over Packers - The Bears come out of their bye to host the Packers and the Packers are as bad as advertised after a 30-17 embarrassment at home to the Lions. Brent Hundley won't win the Packers many games - if he even wins any - and the Bears have opportunity to gain Mitchell Trubisky experience and needed confidence.
Lions over Browns - The Why Me, Why Is It Always Me? tour for the Browns continues as they go to Detroit. This rivalry is remembered for one game above all others............
Matthew Stafford's first signature win was in 2009 when he erased a 24-3 gap to stun the Browns - and Eric Mangini - despite breaking his left shoulder
Rams over Texans - Speaking of memory lanes, when did the Rams re-sign Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Ike Bruce, and Torry Holt? The Texans, meanwhile, saw their future with Tom Savage in another bitter loss, this one wasting a strong comeback effort.
Cowboys over Falcons - The Falcons are clearly declining and we're not sure their struggles on offense are fixable as they take on a Cowboys team still in the fight despite the Zeke Elliott saga.
49ers over NY Giants - The 2017 Toilet Bowl between two teams with ONE win between them. We think Jimmy Garoppolo makes his 49ers debut in this one (this amid some bizarre speculation he could be dealt after this season) and this should be enough edge over a Giants team that can't seem to do anything.
Patriots over Broncos - The collapse of the Broncos is now obvious and their defense can't be considered all that great anymore, especially with an awful turnover differential of minus-11 vs. New England's plus-four. The Patriots may get Malcolm Mitchell back at receiver, and they can use him with their offense struggling the last several games.
Panthers over Dolphins - Cam Newton can wear all the cheesy suits he wants facing a moribund Dolphins team off a home loss that was more lopsided than their garbage-time touchdown would indicate.
Now we're down to two games to go, and remember when thirteen teams were 1-3? Well entering Week 16 seventeen teams (nine AFC and eight NFC) have winning records while the Bills, Colts, and Vikings are all at .500 - far deeper competitively than I suspect anyone thought would transpire way back after Week Four. None of this of course does anything for the winless Browns or the hopeless NY Jets or for that matter the Jaguars, Rams, 49ers, or Bears.
So it goes for this weekend - an NFL Merry Christmas cavalcade of picks -
Eagles over NY Giants - The Giants are all but in the playoffs but their longtime stuggle against the Eagles is still a factor, especially after stunning the Eagles earlier this season. Philly lost a heartbreaker last week and being spoiler to the Giants is appealing for the Eagles.
Bears over Redskins - The Redskins had their destiny in their hands and failed, and now they face a Bears team showing more fight with Matt Barkley of late. Dolphins over Bills - The Dolphins have the playoffs in their sight and made a statement with their backup quarterback, and they face a Bills team that's lost five of its last eight games with lameduck coach Rex Ryan and perhaps lameduck starter Tyrod Taylor, Vikings over Packers - The Packers squandered a big lead at Chicago last week and managed to grab the win, and they face a Vikings team that's lost seven of its last nine games, but has a two-game streak over the Packers heading to Lambeau. Titans over Jaguars - Doug Marrone takes over as Jaguars coach and has a respectful resume from his two seasons coaching the Bills; he faces a Titans team that is on the march and has won five games against teams with winning records so far this year, so it's doubtful Marrone can author the turnaround now.
Patriots over NY Jets - The Jets packed it in last week against Miami - which doesn't mean a thing given everyone goes all in to beat the Patriots. New England though is clicking all around despite only sixteen points scored at Denver. Chargers over Browns - The Browns have been hopeless for a long time even with a collapsing Chargers team that blew it last week yet again. Panthers over Falcons - The Panthers ground out an important win last week and the Falcons have the Buccaneers hard on their heels despite the loss at Dallas Sunday night. The Falcons hammered two hapless NFC West teams - no doubt remembering all the abuse they took as a member of the NFC West - but face a sterner foe in the Panthers, plus the Falcons have been a little spotty with a 3-2 record the last five games. Raiders over Colts - The Colts got back on track at Minnesota to the surprise of a lot of people, but the Raiders ground out a needed win last week and are far tougher than the Colts. Seahawks over Cardinals - It simply wasn't meant to be for the Cardinals this season and a successor to Carson Palmer now needs to become a matter of exploration. Buccaneers over Saints - The Bucs ground out a 16-11 win over the Saints the first time around and the inconsistency of Drew Brees in general and against Jameis Winston in particular continues - Winston has won two of his first three meetings with the Saints while the Saints were one of those thirteen 1-3 teams, except they haven't responded, going only 5-5 since then.
Rams over 49ers - Both are dismal; one is worse (the Niners) so interim coach John Fassel can get his first win here. The longer term headache remains Jared Goff, woefully incapable of handling the NFL game. Texans over Bengals - Tom Savage is now starter and not too soon with the Titans breathing down Houston's neck. The big question for the Bengals is not whether Marvis Lewis should be fired - it's why has AJ McCarron not replaced Andy Dalton? Dalton has not shown evidence he can get better; McCarron has already proven he can handle playoff football.
Ravens over Steelers - A lot of people are fooling themselves into thinking the Steelers are a Superbowl-caliber squad; the reality is they've been owned by the Ravens since the 2010 season (the Ravens have won nine of the last twelve meetings), are only 9-5 with four of their losses coming against winning teams, and haven't reached 30 points scored since the loss to the Cowboys. The Steelers haven't been a Superbowl-caliber team since they last went to the AFC-NFL Title Game and have only one playoff win since the 2010 AFC Championship Game.
Chiefs over Broncos - The Broncos' collapse continued with the loss to the Patriots and an argument between Aqib Talib and Russell Okung after that game, to go with pathetic trash-talking from Emauel Sanders about Malcolm Butler even though Butler contained Sanders more effectively than anyone else so far. The Chiefs are now in must-win mode while the Broncos have lost all momentum. Lions over Cowboys - It didn't look it against the Giants as Matthew Stafford once again failed on the road against a quality opponent, but the Lions still have momentum for their first division title in nearly three decades and the Cowboys got back into the win column but are still vulnerable. Overall Stafford's play has improved to where winning road games against quality opponents isn't necessarily impossible anymore, though he has to actually start doing it, and now.
Merry Christmas from the NFL - which means Not For Long, Jerry Glanville.
The New York Jets have become the New York Jets again - the personification of laughable incompetence.
The NFL is now entering the final four weeks of its 2016 season, and there are still some playoff races to be determined, so we look ahead to Week 14.
Some bad play has hurt quite a few teams and Week 13's blooper reel is worth a gander.
Chiefs over Raiders - The Chiefs back in Week Four looked like a developing trainwreck the way they got destroyed by the Pittsburgh Steelers; now they are a juggernaut after winning on - of all things - a pick-Two. They beat the Raiders in Oakland already and so aren't afraid of the Raiders in KC.
Titans over Broncos - On paper this doesn't look like a favorable matchup for the Titans coming off their bye as they get the 8-4 Broncos, a team that's won four of five previous meetings with the Titans as a Tennessee team. The Broncos defense remains stout, albeit not as good as advertised as shown by the four losses (even with that the Broncos are sixth in fewest points allowed), and this is Marcus Mariota's first meeting with the Broncos. One area that may be an advantage for the Titans is the Broncos run defense is allowing 4.2 yards per carry, with the Titans averaging 4.8 YPC and Mariota's redzone efficiency and ability to look off opponent defenses will certainly be tested with an opponent in Trevor Siemian who has won a lot of games but really hasn't shown advancement in his game as the season has gone on.
Dolphins over Cardinals - The Cardinals stopped the bleeding with their win over the Skins, but have to travel to a Miami team that's smarting from getting humiliated by the Ravens and is lightyears better than anyone thought they'd be, especially with regard to Ryan Tannehill's play versus an aging Carson Palmer.
Vikings over Jaguars - The regression of Blake Bortles has been stunning and disheartening given the progress people thought was there in 2015; with that progress clearly illusory the Jaguars have plunged into yet another losing season, with a winning season no closer to this organization than it was before the season started. The Vikings are reeling and need this win a lot more than the out-of-it Jaguars do.
Bengals over Browns - The hopelessness of the Browns doesn't require any elaboration, and the Bengals finally began to turn things around in embarrassing the Eagles last week.
Steelers over Bills - The Bills now appear to be falling out of contention with another Rex Ryan promise unfulfilled as they get a Steelers team that got a big win last week.
Colts over Texans - It's now clear Brock Osweiler was a mistake, as the more he plays the worse he seems to get; it's also clear Andrew Luck showed something we thought he didn't have with his first win over an AFC opponent since 2012 (and first over the NY Jets). It's also clear that Bill O'Brien is not capable of grooming quarterbacks, having failed to groom one to any kind of legitimate extent in his time in Houston.
Eagles over Redskins - The Eagles now appear eliminated from playoff contention, but the Redskins now appear to be sliding out of contention and the Eagles want momentum, and can get it in spoiling someone else's playoff hopes.
Buccaneers over Saints - The Saints are falling apart and Drew Brees can no longer be considered an elite quarterback. The Bucs meanwhile are now on a legitimate surge - all the way to the division lead - and Jameis Winston more and more is developing into the real deal.
Panthers over Chargers - The Chargers blew it yet again. Needing to lead a comeback, Philip Rivers threw another killer INT. Like his former Chargers teammate Drew Brees, Rivers simply is not elite and never will be again; if anything both are net liabilities for their teams. The Chargers now have to go to Carolina, itself fighting ineptitude and what appears to be a looming disciplinary issue after Cam Newton was benched for the opening play at Seattle. In a battle of bad teams that should be good, look for the Panthers to salvage some pride.
Lions over Bears - Matt Barkley is now Bears starter and his passer rating, touchdown to INT ratio, and completion percentage are the worst of the three starters the Bears have fielded. The Bears now have to go to a surging Lions team that - believe it or not - now looks like a team that can win at least one playoff game. They of course have to get through the remaining four games first.
49ers over NY Jets - Right now one wonders if Blaine Gabbert will start after Colin Kaepernick completed one pass at Chicago and the Niners celebrated what they thought was a touchdown and got penalized for the laughably protracted celebration. But if the Niners are the worst team in the NFC the Jets may actually be worse than the Browns in the AFC after their atrocious performance against the Colts. They appeared to quit against the Colts long before the fourth quarter and have huge salary issues with utter failure by most of their big name players.
Seahawks over Packers - The Packers won last week but their dismal performance against Russell Wilson gives the Seahawks an edge despite not winning in four of their road games. The Packers remain the ultimate frontrunning fraud and didn't exactly acquit themselves all that hotly against the Texans.
Falcons over Rams - The Falcons are faltering again but get a dismal Rams team whose starting quarterback in just a few games looks like a failure; Jared Goff has shown no competent reading of the field and seemingly no ability to establish any command of the quarterbacking position.
Cowboys over NY Giants - The Giants have had a strong season but losing to the Steelers comes at the worst possible time with the Cowboys - unbeaten since losing to the Giants in Week One - looking for payback in Metlife Stadium, and where in 2015's Metlife match honorary Giants captains actors Peter Hermann, Mariska Hargitay, and their little angel August proved a good luck charm for the Gints, that mojo doesn't look effective against Dakota Prescott and company.
2014's playoff shootout remains the signature game between the Patriots and the Ravens
Patriots over Ravens - Much discussion has been made downing the Patriots defense for ostensible poor performance against quality opponents, ignoring the Patriots are 3-1 against such opponents so far and giving up 31 points to the Seahawks is not terribly impressive in today's game; that particular game came down to a surprising failure by the Patriots goalline offense. The Patriots are now working with a different offensive setup with Gronkowski on IR but showed some depth in the offense and some physicality against a Rams team starting to make cheap hits and face a deadly but still erratic Joe Flacco. Flacco's erraticism shows in that the Miami win was just the third time the Ravens scored over 25 points this year and the Patriots are plus-nine in turnover differential compared to the Ravens coming in - Flacco by himself has eleven INTs compared to New England's combined eight turnovers. With all that expect points to pile up.
The Seahawks and Patriots are the most anticipated game coming up this weekend. Picks for the week -
Ravens over Browns - The Browns have been in freefall all season and the Ravens, as inconsistent as they are, are not enough of a pushover for the Browns to turn it around.
Panthers over Chiefs - The Panthers are now starting to get their fight back and they face a good Chiefs team that has played better but hasn't shown enough muscle to truly contend beyond the first round of the playoffs.
Saints over Broncos - The Broncos got pushed around by the Raiders and Trevor Siemian may be reaching the first-year wall. The Saints defense isn't that hot but has played better of late.
Vikings over Redskins - The bitter loss at home to the Lions came in the first game since the surprise resignation of Norv Turner, so the Vikings offense is still in a mode of getting used to a different playcaller. The Lions, though, are clearly of a different caliber to the Redskins, who are good but not great.
Falcons over Eagles - Suddenly the Eagles are not as good as we thought they were and they get a Falcons team that so far hasn't shown sign of faltering.
Rams over NY Jets - The New York-based TV series Law And Order Special Victims Unit is reaching its 400th episode, and will presumably soon surpass the 402 career wins the Jets are stuck on as they host the struggling Rams, where controversy over Jared Goff and the complete lack of snaps he's taken this year continues to build. LA's 3-1 start is history, and so are the Jets despite those two stunning wins the two weeks before their loss at Miami.
Jaguars over Texans - The Jaguars haven't beaten the Texans since 2013 and only scored fourteen points in their first game with Nathaniel Hackett as offensive coordinator. The Texans, though, despite being 5-3 have gotten there with a subpar offense that's exploded only in spots. Brock Osweiler still has not made the jump forward as a quarterback people expected him to make.
Titans over Packers - It's clear now the Packers are not as good as advertised, and watching Aaron Rodgers play one sees more and more a lack of true quarterbacking acumen - as in reading of defenses, setting up for short passes, etc. Rodgers' game looks less and less like a pro-style offense and more like freelancing and huck it deep and hope someone can go get it. The Packers are 11th in scoring at 24.8 PPG while the Titans are at 24.1. Marcus Mariota keeps playing strong and needs to start stringing together more wins; at 4-5 the Titans have already taken a step forward, now they need to take more such steps.
Buccaneers over Bears - One finds it impossible to trust Jay Cutler despite the win over the Vikings and despite the struggles of Jameis Winston (currently at only 59% completion) and the former NFC Central rival Bucs. They need to start turning it around; a Bears team all but dead last in points scored looks like a good place to begin.
Chargers over Dolphins - Miami has leaned on Jay Ajayi of late but the Chargers run defense has played better of late and the Chargers D has forced eighteen turnovers so far, though they face a Dolphins team that hasn't coughed up the ball since the loss to the Titans. Three straight wins have put the Dolphins back into relevance in the season, but it's the Chargers with more to gain here.
Cowboys over Steelers - Don't buy the hype. Ben Roethlisberger is not as good as people thought and the Steelers showed they're eminently beatable in losing three straight and scoring just 45 points in the last three games combined, this facing a Cowboys team that has scored 64 its last two games. Winning the NFC East seems a formality for the rejuvinated Cowboys; making the playoffs looks out of Pittsburgh's reach.
Cardinals over 49ers - Colin Kaepernick showed far more last week in almost reaching 400 yards, but managing just 23 points out of it (with a pick to go with three more Niners fumbles) shows anew the lack of winning ability as they face a Cards team coming off its bye.
Patriots over Seahawks - It's the rematch of the week as the Seahawks and Patriots renew acquaintances. The Seahawks are 5-2-1 after a grinder of a Monday Night win but has continued to struggle to score, as they face a Patriots team that has averaged 34 points the last four games and has the two tight-end set it has sought since the criminal implosion of Aaron Hernandez. Seattle's defense also isn't as good as advertised, shown in getting pushed all over the field by Buffalo.
NY Giants over Bengals - The Giants pulled off a rare win over the Eagles and now face the inconsistent Bengals, coming off their bye week and the improbable tie with the Redskins in London. The Giants, despite being 24th in scoring, have won three straight since the Josh Brown brouhaha; they have, though, gagged up six turnovers the last three games.
So we await the beginning of the second half of the 2016 season.
The Lions pulled off the finish of the week in stunning the Minnesota Vikings, who suddenly are no longer the conference locks they appeared to be a few weeks ago.
The NFC North has turned upside down with Detroit's win and losses by both the Vikings and the Packers - who yet again didn't get it done when Aaron Rodgers had to stage a comeback.
While the Colts won, the Titans endured yet another bitter loss despite four touchdowns by Marcus Mariota - whose three turnovers were killers. The Chargers, despite a somewhat-skimpy looking crowd at Qualcomm, are hoping the win will encourage a tax vote Tuesday to allow building of a new stadium.
The most competitive game may have been the Jets-Dolphins affair. Jay Ajayi didn't reach 100 yards but led by his rushing the Dolphins have suddenly made themselves relevant to the 2016 season, while the NY Jets - well, they've become the NY Jets again. Notable, though, is that Bryce Petty finally saw some action for the Jets.
The NFC East race meanwhile is strictly a Dallas Cowboys affair now with the Eagles faltering to the NY Giants.
The Raiders now have an undisputed statement win indicating they are back in the playoff hunt while the Broncos defense continues to be exposed as overrated, especially without Aqib Talib.
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So what to make of the season going forward?
** - The NFC South belongs to the Atlanta Falcons, with everyone else battling for hopefully a wildcard spot.
** - Of the thirteen teams that were 1-3, Indanapolis and Tennessee are still in their division hunt while Detroit is now 5-4; the Cardinals are still considered in the playoff hunt; Jacksonville has faltered and now appears out of any playoff hunt; also appearing out of the hunt are the Bucs, while the Niners absolutely are out of any contention.
** - The Packers are frauds - of course in a sense they have been throughout the Aaron Rodgers era but his propensity for just bootlegging instead of actually reading a defense is getting worse and as a result they are getting worse.
** - The weakest division in the league is the AFC North.
** - The Lions are quietly not going away and it's clear Jim Caldwell is a better coach than people want to give him credit for.
So it's on to Week Nine and the NFL enters with one of the more discussed trade deadline deals seen in awhile after Jamie Collins got shipped from the 7-1 Patriots to the winless Browns.
Buccaneers over Falcons - The Falcons are flying high after a clutch win over the Packers while the Bucs are smarting over a bitter defeat in overtime to the Oakland Raiders. The Falcons lead the league in points and Matt Ryan has been boffo so far, but this scene has played out before as the Falcons jump out early then falter late; they get a Bucs team that beat the Falcons in Week One and has won two of its last three games to go with the bitter overtime loss. The Bucs have cleaned up on turnovers the last three games with just one vs. three in that same span for the Falcons.
Dolphins over NY Jets - The Dolphins have shown some shocking improvement the last two games with 928 yards of offense, not a single turnover, and 58 points scored, this as the Jets struggled to beat a winless Browns outfit and were awful the first half of that game. Jets quarterbacks have combined for twelve INTs this year - and of course Rumor Control Central has it Tony Romo will be arriving in time for 2017.
Ravens over Steelers - The Ravens have faltered after winning their first three games, but have a three-game streak (and five of the last six meetings) over the Steelers going, this as the Steelers have gagged up four turnovers the last three games where the Ravens are plus-three in turnover differential in that same span.
Eagles over NY Giants - The Eagles have stumbled the last four weeks but are still fourth in fewest points allowed in the league facing a Giants team that has shown little ability to score and has gagged up seven turnovers in that span.
Chiefs over Jaguars - The Lions fired their offensive coordinator last season and have won ten of their last sixteen games as a result; the Ravens fired their offensive coordinator earlier this year but it's still too early to gauge if it's worked. So the Jaguars' change at coordinator bears watching against the Chiefs, who've quietly gotten into a crowded AFC West race.
Vikings over Lions - Two straight losses leaves the Vikings stewing and determined to right the ship, so look for the Vikes to come out firing against a Lions squad that's been midpack in points and points allowed but which has taken care of the football with zero turnovers the last three games.
Cowboys over Browns - The Browns look more and more like an 0-16 lost cause while Dakota Prescott has ended any competition from Tony Romo.
Saints over 49ers - Speaking of lost causes the 49ers have become just that and Colin Kaepernick in particular is a lost cause and a waste of space.
Panthers over Rams - More and more speculation about Jared Goff is circulating as the Panthers finally got off the skids last week and need to string together more wins.
Titans over Chargers - Three INTs last week and eighteen turnovers overall graphically showcase that Philip Rivers is not the answer anymore, that Mike McCoy and company were never the answer at the coaching level (with the upshot that Titans coaching washout Ken Whisenhunt is now the Chargers' offensive coordinator), and that the Chargers' season looks like another lost cause as they host a Titans team quietly building upward. The Titans aren't causing turnovers but they're not gagging them up, either - just two the last four games. San Diego's run defense could be a problem allowing just 3.7 yards per carry as they face a Titans ground game averaging 4.9 YPC. Marcus Mariota's passer rating is also slightly higher than Rivers' right now.
Colts over Packers - This at first glance has mismatch written all over it with the 3-5 Colts coming off only their third loss to the Chiefs in their last sixteen meetings facing the ostensibly mighty Packers. But the 4-3 Packers have struggled pretty much all season and are midpack in points and points allowed with yet another Aaron Rodgers failure when he has to lead a comeback coming last week. While Andrew Luck hasn't been great shakes, the Packers didn't acquit themselves all that hotly the last time they faced an AFC South team.
Raiders over Broncos - The Raiders now have the ultimate opportunity to make a statement about 2016. Derek Carr is made of sterner stuff than Philip Rivers or Brock Osweiler and to go with what looks like a mismatch of a sort at quarterback (Trevor Siemian's 6.1 yards per throw contrasts poorly with Carr's 7.2), the Broncos run defense has been shaky of late with the Raiders rushing at 4.8 yards per carry and splitting carries well between three primary backs.
Bills over Seahawks - This is my upset pick of the week. The Bills have fallen to 4-4, but the Seahawks have struggled to score and have just one win in their last three games; contrast this with a Bills offense that is in the top-ten in points, this despite two straight losses and some pedestrian efforts by Tyrod Taylor. Fear of the Seahawks appears to be waning around the league and the Bills are already ahead of where one would have thought they'd be at this point of the season.
So we thus await the raising of the curtain of Week Nine.
Week Eight of the 2016 season saw some things change yet others stay the same.
Before anyone could play Whack A Pack, first the Tennessee Titans hosted the Jacksonville Jaguars; the year before at Tennessee the two teams scored 79 combined points; there was no such shootout this time as Marcus Mariota and the Titans displayed some creative playcalling, and after getting rolled 36-22 the Jaguars thought they'd continue without coaching changes - then something changed and offensive coordinator Greg Olson was fired. Last year the Detroit Lions fired their offensive coordinator and won six of the next eight games, so this change bears watching.
The Redskins and Bengals squared off in London, the final London game on the schedule this year amid scuttlebutt the league wants to increase the London slate next year despite inability to make any money with the game and ZERO evidence Londoners are really that interested. The game itself was the most competitive of the London slate that anyone can remember but it ended in a hated tie (27-27) on yet more missed FGAs. Josh Norman also got exposed by AJ Green.
This week saw three standout games. When it appeared the day would see two ties the Raiders pulled off their most spectacular win in memory in a thriller at Tampa Bay, a Superbowl rematch that lived up to the name Super. The Raiders' reputation for playing dumb football and incurring plethoric penalties as a result came through in a big way with twenty-three fouls, while Derek Carr exploded to over 500 passing yards, the second guy to do it this season after Matt Ryan against the Panthers. With that the Raiders are 6-2 with a showdown game against the Broncos coming up.
The AFC West is the deepest division in the league as the Kansas City Chiefs made history, beating the Indianapolis Colts for only the third time in the last sixteen meetings, this despite losing Alex Smith to injury and playing Nick Foles. The slow-motion collapse of the Andrew Luck Colts - and potential collapse of Chuck Pagano's employment there in the first such coach opera since Wayne Watch with the 1990s Detroit Lions and Wayne Fontes - thus continues.
Speaking of Wayne Watch, Fontes' former team suffered another loss to the AFC South and fell to 4-4 while Brock Osweiler salvaged some pride from last week's embarrassment at Denver.
This is the second of two Games Of The Week. Aaron Rodgers did it again - when he had to stage a comeback, he failed. And with the Vikings at present running away with the NFC North the Packers and Lions may be battling for a wildcard spot down the road. For Matt Ryan the win ended a four-game losing streak to the Packers and offered renewed optimism for the remainder of the season.
Just when Bills Mafia thought it had a chance, it got crushed. Tyrod Taylor did offer some good play but it was telling EJ Manual seemed to play a little better when he came in during garbage time. The win is New England's 498th as they close in on becoming the first team originating from the American Football League to reach 500 career wins. And yet the game wasn't even the big story.....
....and no, the big story wasn't the adult toy thrown onto the field. The Patriots stole the show the day after by trading Jamie Collins to the Browns for a conditional draft pick. As usual with Bill Belichick trades the specifics are left to speculation, but Mike Lombardi pointed to one play in particular against the Bills - the second play of the Bills' opening drive - where Collins freelanced his way away from making a play and thus the Bills gained 28 yards; such freelancing fails and because of that invariably gets players demoted and eventually cut from Belichick rosters.
The third Game Of The Week. Any thought that Tony Romo would get back the starting job with the Cowboys has officially ended when Dakota Prescott clawed back against the Eagles and led the winning overtime touchdown drive, further cementing the 2016 Cowboys as a playoff contender.
The New England Patriots tell us where they're going in Week Six and with Week Five wrapping up, we look ahead to Week Six.
Broncos over Chargers - The Broncos got exposed by the Falcons and Paxton Lynch showed a lot less as a quarterback than Trevor Siemian, rumored to be the starter. Regardless of which one starts for the Broncos they face a Chargers team that cannot finish any game, is minus-one in turnover differential, and is 47-54 this decade entering this game. Philip Rivers' volume stats are good, but he's not getting it done and really hasn't as shown in the 47-54 record.
Jaguars over Bears - While Brian Hoyer has shown more and more improvement compared to Jay Cutler, the Bears continue to struggle and they get a Jaguars team that finally got some momentum entering their Bye week. Hoyer's overall quality of play does offer reason for hope, but he has to start winning.
Titans over Browns - The Browns have won the last two meetings with the Titans (and five of the last eight dating to the last year of the old AFC Central) including 2014's stunning comeback win from down 28-3 after Jake Locker, who'd been head-hunted by the Browns, got knocked out after whacking his throwing hand on a player's helmet. Ironically present Browns quarterback Charlie Whitehurst took over from there and stormed the Titans to that 28-3 lead - and failed to stop the bleeding. Now Whitehurst may have to face his old team that clawed to a needed win at Miami and is showing some improvement, this as the Browns at 0-5 are now staring at 0-16.
Steelers over Dolphins - The Steelers have it going all around right now, and the Dolphins don't have anything going.
Lions over Rams - The Lions pulled off the win over a good opponent last week and now host the Rams, reeling from an ugly loss to Rex Ryan's Bills. Case Keenum's promising beginning has taken a turn for the worse when he threw two picks last week and now has five picks to just four touchdowns this season, though this matchup might favor him given he beat the Lions last season.
NY Giants over Ravens - The Ravens were the weakest 3-0 team seen in awhile and it showed with losses the last two weeks, enough that Marc Trestman was unceremoniously dumped as offensive coordinator. Marty "I'll take the wind" Mornhinweg takes over as offensive coordinator; his career as such has been uneven at best, though his teams (especially when he was with the Eagles) have a good record against a Giants team that looks mediocre at best.
Panthers over Saints - Carolina's struggle against the Bucs shows how much of a mess the Panthers are, Cam Newton or Derek Anderson, but even with that the Saints are their own mess despite good offensive numbers. They did get it done in a shootout at San Diego.
Eagles over Redskins - The Eagles despite the setback at Detroit remain in the top-3 in points and points allowed while the Redskins are stuck in the middle third in both. The Skins do have momentum on their side having won three straight and are plus-3 in turnover differential, though the Eagles are better at plus-5.
Patriots over Bengals - The rallying cry of 2014 gets renewal as the Patriots have Tom Brady back and face a Bengals team that is just 2-3 (though plus-2 in turnover differential) and only 24th in scoring. The embarrassment at Dallas showcased the Bengals are hitting another rut that has pockmarked Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton's careers.
Bills over 49ers - Maybe we better start believing in the Bills after three straight wins, and they get a reeling 49ers squad that may make the mistake of putting the worthless Colin Kaepernick back under center, this after he basically blew off preseason preparation. Believe it or not the Bills are actually decent in offense (15th in points) and Tyrod Taylor has been effective at quarterback with six touchdowns and just two INTs, though his yards per throw (6.7) leaves something to be desired.
Raiders over Chiefs - The Raiders have surged to 4-1 and Derek Carr seems to be getting ever better, presently at 11 touchdowns to just two INTs. And lost in the shuffle is the Raiders run game is at a very healthy Five yards per carry. The odd stat is they've been outgained in the air in yards and touchdowns. The Raiders host a Chiefs team that's again off to a slow start; though the Chiefs are plus-3 in turnover differential this number is skewed by the disaster that was the NY Jets. The Chiefs are 2-2 and aren't scoring a whole lot (just 50 points the last three games).
Cowboys over Packers - Dakota Prescott and company have surged to a 4-1 start and take on a Packers team that's only 12th in points and points allowed (Dallas is 9th in scoring and 8th in points allowed) and has been mildly atrocious against passing attacks (1,098 yards at 6.9 yards per throw and seven touchdowns allowed; the differential between Packers passing yards and yards allowed is over 250 yards); the Packers are also minus-one in turnover differential. The old saw about the Packers - they can frontrun like crazy and can't stage a comeback when they need one - remains true as they've outlasted the teams they've beaten rather than put them away. The Cowboys for their part aren't great shakes against passing attacks either (1,303 yards, 6.6 yards per throw, nine touchdowns allowed) and are minus-two in turnover differential; their running game has accounted for eleven scores but goes against a Packers team allowing just two yards per attempt, so this game should be a taut one.
Falcons over Seahawks - having shot down both Superbowl teams - the first team to do that in over 30 years - the Falcons stay out west and head to Seattle's king of a semi-dome. The Falcons bullied Denver's vaunted defense but take on a Seahawks defense that's noticeably better - third in points allowed, just 5.4 yards per throw allowed, and just one touchdown allowed. The big gap is in points scored as the Seahawks are only 21st; their passing game is hitting seven yards per throw but the Seahawks are stuck on the ground at just 3.3 yards per rushing attempt. The Falcons remains atop the league in points and their 25th ranking in points allowed is a little deceiving, as they're winning despite that, in at least part because they are plus-three in turnover differential.
Colts over Texans - Suddenly the Houston Texans don't look like a playoff team anymore. The Colts rallied to their second win of the season and the Texans were dismal at Minnesota and have looked out of sorts since getting humiliated in Foxboro. Start with a disturbing turnover differential - minus-four. More and more Brock Osweiler looks not like a future star but a future washout, with sluggish throwing motion, only five net yards per throw, 58% completion, and more INTs (seven) than touchdowns (six). Nor has Bill O'Brien lived up to the promise shown as Penn State's coach after the disasterous end of Joe Paterno's regime.
Cardinals over NY Jets - In the old days a down-in-the-dumps team could regain some confidence when the NY Jets came up on the schedule. The Cardinals are top-11 in points and points allowed but only 2-3 thanks to some poor play by Carson Palmer and his three losses. Drew Stanton is no solution down the road but so far he's kept it in a positive direction. He and the Cards play host to the NY Jets, who have imploded - hilariously illustrated in their plus-NINE turnover differential, this despite not turning over the ball once at Pittsburgh. The once-vaunted pass defense of the Jets has disintegrated with Darrelle Revis' career - twelve scores in the air, 8.2 net yards per throw allowed. Meanwhile Ryan Fitzpatrick has played down to his quarterbacking competence with ten picks and just five touchdowns - no wonder Rumor Control Central now has it that the Jets are working on a package to trade to Dallas for Tony Romo.
Tom Brady returned to the NFL in Week Five and him being back was a back-breaker in Week Five
Tom Brady had no rust as he killed the already-moribund Cleveland Browns, who lost their promising young quarterback and had to rely on the inept journeyman Charlie Whitehurst
The Minnesota Vikings continue their unbeaten run, pounding the Houston Texans, who may be second-guessing getting Brock Osweiler as Osweiler has been shaky the last few games
No more win streak for the Broncos and while the Falcons didn't put up the monster numbers they'd put up their previous three games their offense bullied the Broncos defense convincingly. This game also raised some doubts about Paxton Lynch, whose debut was woefully weaker than Trevor Siemian's
The Eagles finally fell and Carson Wentz threw a pick, but their start was a lot better than anyone expected and this setback shouldn't ruffle anyone in Philly. It was also an encouraging win for Matthew Stafford, though a playoff berth remains unlikely
The Bears nearly pulled off the win at Indianapolis and put up some 500 yards of offense with better-than-expected play from Brian Hoyer; Hoyer seems certain to be the permanent replacement for the inept Jay Cutler
Marcus Mariota accounted for all four Tennessee Titans touchdowns at Miami and it was a promising effort toward long-term improvement, while the Titans broke out of a competitive game and broke the back of the Dolphins; the replacement for Ryan Tannehill should already be being scouted by Dolphins personnel people
The Bungles tried to get the number of the Dallas truck that ran over them - it was driven by Dakota Prescott and Zeke Elliott, who hasn't hit the wall (unlike Chase Elliott at Charlotte again) but instead is hitting the holes. The sight of a laughing Tony Romo on the sideline was pathetic as Romo's career with the Cowboys should be over
The surprise perhaps of the day was the Bills - written off when they were 0-2 they've now won three in a row while blunting the Rams' early surge in the NFC West; suddenly the prospect of the Bills making the playoffs for the first time since 1999 is for now no longer a joke
Also no joke is the Oakland Raiders as they surged to 4-1 in perhaps the most competitive game of the day. The gagged FGA by the Chargers at the end and more INTs by Philip Rivers have become the norm for the Chargers - when they have to step up, they fail
NFL Redzone's touchdown compilation from Week Five
Julio Jones and Matt Ryan suddenly have firepower, and they'll need it to try and knock down the unbeaten Broncos
Often over the years Week Five is gut-check week for NFL teams. A rally to make the playoffs usually has to start now. But for fourteen teams entering Week Five with just one win - or winless as the Cleveland Browns are - the task seems unrealistic, so focusing on just winning the next game and trying to build something would seem the more prudent course.
Not that a rally for a 1-3 team can't happen, but maybe fifteen of the eighteen teams with two or more wins coming in appear ready to start a springboard with a Week Five win. So we try again with picks -
Cardinals over 49ers - Two 1-3 teams clash on Thursday Night and injury to Carson Palmer throws a wrench into the works for the Cardinals. I'm not confident as of Tuesday that Carson Palmer will play, which leaves things in the hands of the unimpressive Drew Stanton. Working for the Cardinals is the Niners have plummeted after their Week One win and Blaine Gabbert has fallen to earth. Inevitably the talk of starting Colin Kaepernick will start; having proven he is not a leader or a competent quarterback (doing so with his publically poor work ethic) Kaepernick is not the answer.
Vikings over Texans - The Vikings continue to prove they're for real with another dismantling of an opponent, and now they get a Texans team that got the win after getting embarrassed at Foxboro; however the Texans didn't show much in the way of closing power, blew a 14-point lead before a punt-return score put the game just out of Tennessee's reach, and are in the bottom-five in points scored with six INTs by Brock Osweiler - suddenly we may be relearning why the Broncos didn't fight to keep him. Contrast this with Sam Bradford, with a passer rating over 100 and this gives a defense better than the vaunted Broncos defense (the Vikings are second in fewest points allowed) what it needs to work with.
Falcons over Broncos - Yes it's a rash prediction given the Broncos are defending champs, fifth in both points and points allowed, and unbeaten going against a Falcons team 29th in points allowed. The Falcons, though, do not turn the ball over and have forced five turnovers, the same number the Broncos have given up so far - with both teams at plus-three in turnover differential. Assuming Trevor Siemian is out after getting carted off on the meat wagon at Tampa Bay, Paxton Lynch showed he can pick right up where Siemian left off, so there should be no worry at quarterback. Keep in mind when the Broncos faced the Panthers, a better offense than what the Bucs, Bengals, and Colts delivered - the Broncos escaped with a win as opposed to decisively defeating them. If Matt Ryan pulls it off he will finally have taken that true next step.
Redskins over Ravens - Joe Flacco got it done - barely - the first three games but failed when he had to get it going against the resurgent Raiders. Now he, his below-80 passer rating, and the Ravens' minus-one turnover differential face a Deadskins team that's plus-three in turnover differential and has won its last two.
Titans over Dolphins - The 1-3 Dolphins are minus-five in turnover differential; the 1-3 Titans are minus-four. The shocker stat is Ryan Tannehill has a better passer rating than Marcus Mariota - while Mariota is just 73.9, Tannehill is at 87.3. Yet every week the Titans fight to the very end where the Dolphins have shown little fight outside of a surprising and ultimately futile rally at Foxboro. The Titans also have an edge in rushing the ball with over 500 yards and a very healthy 4.7 yards per carry against a Dolphins run defense that's already allowed over 500 yards.
Colts over Bears - This battle of 1-3 teams may be tougher than it looks after the Bears pulled off the win last week. Brian Hoyer is now quarterback and has surged past 100 in passer rating with four touchdowns and no picks, outclassing the incompetent Jay Cutler. Hoyer gets the chance to continue his redemption facing a Colts team that failed to finish a rally against the Jaguars.
Steelers over NY Jets - The Steelers exploded last week and now get fresh meat in a falling Jets team. Ryan Fitzpatrick's collapse was expected, but not necessarily this quickly or this graphically at nine INTs the last two games.
Eagles over Lions - Carson Wentz has yet to show any weakness with five touchdowns and no picks, and he faces a Lions team off to yet another dismal start. Matthew Stafford's passer rating has been good - 93.9 - and he's cut down on turnovers, yet he's not getting the job done, and he faces an Eagles team that leads the league in fewest points allowed and is second in points scored.
Patriots over Browns- The wildcard aspect of this game is the Browns won the last meeting in Cleveland (in 2010) and the Patriots needed to rally in preposterous fashion against them in 2013. The Browns also are seeing some legitimate quarterbacking out of Cody Kessler. Getting Tom Brady back is just in time for a Patriots team angry at getting embarrassed by loudmouth Rex Ryan and after he sent his players to disrupt Patriots pregame warmups; that indignity usually leads to a Patriots win the next game.
Raiders over Chargers - Derek Carr is getting it done and Philip Rivers is not, and it's more and more looking like he can't anymore. This should be a high-scoring affair.
Rams over Bills - The Rams are 3-1 and Case Keenum, despite some subpar numbers, is overall getting it done. The Bills have rallied for two straight wins but Rex Ryan's culture inevitably flames out, and usually in rather spectacular fashion.
Cowboys over Bengals - The Cowboys behind Dakota Prescott look more and more like the real deal, and they face a Bengals squad that is still good, but not up to being great.
Packers over NY Giants - Eli Manning's encouraging start is history and while the Packers are still frontrunning phonies the Giants do not look good enough to make them pay.
Panthers over Buccaneers - The Panthers are now a mess, with injury to Cam Newton, but the Bucs have faltered with eight INTs by Jameis Winston and a disasterous minus-nine turnover differential. The promise of Winston's rookie season hasn't translated to anything, and that's a shame. With both teams 1-3 playoff promise likewise appears gone.
The NFL season has become a mess with surprises and disappointments galore in Week Four and already a disturbing percentage of the league has been eliminated from playoff hope.
Carolina's loss to the Falcons - which included injury to Cam Newton - apart from being a surprising resurgence for Matt Ryan (though flying out of the gate is something we saw from the Falcons last season), was just one of a striking number of games that illustrated a disturbing pattern this year, as even before the Sunday Night affair between the Chiefs and Steelers a whopping thirteen teams stood at 1-3 with the Browns buried at 0-4. Being 1-3 is the traditional death knell for playoff chances. One offhand can't remember the last time so many teams - in essence half the league - were realistically finished from playoff contention this early in a season.
Three-fourths of the AFC South stands at 1-3 with the Houston Texans at 3-1. The Colts staged a strong rally against the Jaguars in London but Andrew Luck's traditional monopoly over division opponents didn't come through and he has a terrible record over his last ten starts. The Titans meanwhile yet again failed to finish a comeback attempt as they erased a 17-3 gap and later tied the game 20-20 but gagged on a punt return. The loss leaves Marcus Mariota stuck on just four wins in his still-short career.
In contrast the Denver Broncos just keep rolling along almost unchallenged, even after Trevor Siemian was injured and had to be taken off on the meat wagon; rookie Paxton Lynch didn't miss a beat in his first NFL action. Meanwhile Jameis Winston has fallen to 1-3 and the Bucs are in the bottom half in points scored, with only six teams in the conference with fewer points scored.
The Cardinals are another 1-3 team, but the bigger surprise is the 3-1 Rams and Case Keenum. Jeff Fisher had struggled to surpass 7-9 records since being hired by the Rams in 2012 but he won against enough quality foes to stay, and so far patience is beginning to pay off. The Cardinals meanwhile lost Carson Palmer to a concussion and even without that they've needed to question the wisdom of keeping him with the scattershot quality of his entire career.
The resurgence of the Oakland Raiders continued with a close win over the Ravens - last year's shootout win introduced the league to Derek Carr and this win may propel him further.
Of course the elephant in the room that got slayed by Gwangi is the New England Patriots and the 16-0 shutout by Rex Ryan and the Bills. Jacoby Brissett illustrated the myth that is "anyone can win in this Patriots system," because his play was singularly embarrassing - they didn't trust him to run the offense so they ran a laughingly dumbed-down offense and even that was too much for him with few completions and nothing to show for it outside of a few completions to Martellus Bennett. Getting Tom Brady can't come too soon with the Patriots now the #2 seed in the AFC and the hated Broncos still cruising.
So what to conclude right now? Some big picture takes -
With half the league realistically out of the playoffs, the best bet for them is to just stay their course and keep fighting, stop worrying about making the playoffs, worry instead about winning the next game - and the next one, and the next one.....
Oakland and the Rams illustrate that staying the course does work, and there is legitimate talent on a lot of those 1-3 teams - and even on the 0-4 Browns.
Even with that some of these teams need to start preparing for change - the Saints for one need to start considering a post-Brees (and perhaps even post-Payton) era; the Chargers likewise have been stuck in mediocrity with Mike McCoy and Philip Rivers; if Josh McDaniels indeed becomes a candidate for a head-coaching job in 2017 Tennessee (which wanted him for this year but couldn't wait longer than it did for him to become available) should get him because it's a good environment for him.
That's just a few areas where change is needed or appears to be inevitable as 2016 has yet to play out.
All of Week 2's touchdowns as we count down to Week 3
The NFL enters Week Three amid some genuine shockers but also amid a surprising - and surprisingly sharp - drop in TV ratings; explanations for why have varied between boycotting of Colin Kaepernick, boycotting of Roger Goodell, the absence of Tom Brady, the retirement of Peyton Manning. Certainly there is likely some element of all involved. A correction was probably overdue so right now one should not be excessively worried.
Certainly it's not for lack of competitive games; the first two weeks have been strikingly well-played and competitive, and expectations have thus been heightened for Week Three. Picks for the week -
Patriots over Texans - Jacoby Brissett has to start with the out-of-left-field shoulder injury to Jimmy Garappolo and his unplanned foray into the NFL against the Dolphins showed his rawness but also showed there is legitimate ability there. He will certainly have better preparation knowing he's going onto the field so leading more than two scoring drives should be a given, though one should keep an eye on Stephen Gostkowski after his stunning gag of a makeable late FGA. They face a Houston team that's clearly on its way to a strong season with Brock Osweiler, a guy clearly not intimidated by facing the Patriots, but with a defensive front led by JJ Watt that isn't any better than the Cardinals and Dolphins fronts the Patriots O-line has manhandled already, plus Watt has been decidedly quiet against the Patriots in the past, notably last season in his own house.
Cardinals over Bills - The Cardinals showed they mean business by laying 40 on the Bucs and they go to New Era Stadium for a Bills opponent that fired their offensive coordinator but that put up 31 points last time out. The Ryan brothers are buffoons, though, so they will find a way to lose.
Panthers over Vikings - The Vikings are onto something this year after stunning the Packers, but they go to a Panthers team that was stewing over the lost opportunity at Denver and responded by breaking out of a competitive game against the Niners and turning it into a massacre. A key matchup to keep an eye on is Sam Bradford to Stefon Diggs, who exploded against the Packers.
Broncos over Bengals - This one I think will be tighter than some may expect. Clearly there is no collapse for the Broncos as Trevor Siemian has already proven doubters wrong with poised play, but this is his first road trip and he goes to a Bengals team hitting its home opener. The Bengals got embarrassed last week at Pittsburgh and have the talent to fight back given the opponent, the defending champs, and one recalls the last time the Broncos visited Cincinnati. The matchup to watch is AJ Green vs Aqib Talib.
Lions over Packers - This is an upset pick for me; both teams are 1-1 and both are coming off losses. The Lions, though, face a Packers team that has now lost four of its last five division meetings and hasn't won a home game against the division since 2014. The Packers also have signs of locker room dissension with one of Aaron Rodgers' O-linemen calling him out publically after the loss at Minnesota. Rodgers' inability to lead a comeback when he has to erase a gap of at least two scores showed up again at Minnesota.
Ravens over Jaguars - Suddenly the Baltimore Ravens are stringing together wins again after a head-shaking 2015, while the Jaguars still have not taken that next step, and looked awful at San Diego last week.
Dolphins over Browns - Only the Browns. They go to a shellshocked Dolphins team hitting its home opener with a revamped Joe Robbie Stadium - now sporting sponsorship from Hard Rock - and with a quarterback in Ryan Tannehill playing his way out of the NFL. But the Browns have bigger problems - they fell apart against the hated Ravens and such collapses usually bode ill for the season.
NY Giants over Redskins - They didn't do it against the Cowboys and now the Redskins face a 2-0 Giants squad that's eking out grinders of wins.
Andre Johnson's game-winner at Detroit
Titans over Raiders - This could be the highest-scoring game on this week's slate as Marcos Mariota and Derek Carr lit it up in their preseason matchup and their teams are 1-1; Carr has exploded the Raiders to 63 points scored while Mariota staged a memorable comeback from down two scores to beat the Lions; his touchdown to Andre Johnson was an absolute thing of beauty. Anyone for a Titans-Raiders playoff meet?
Seahawks over Forty-Niners - The Seahawks are struggling out of the gate having lost on the road again to the Rams, and they face a Niners squad that Blaine Gabbert has made into a team that's not the joke their backup quarterback has become. The Seahawks did win their home opener and the Niners come back from the East Coast and Russell Wilson is the kind of quarterback who can start turning things around fast.
Buccaneers over Rams - Tampa Bay's obliteration by the Cardinals was the punch in the face that should motivate them to lash it out against a Rams team traveling from the West Coast to the East and which has shown zero offense.
Chargers over Colts - There is an ominous sign for the Colts. The opinion has been expressed that the Colts made a fatal mistake signing Chuck Pagano instead of Bruce Arians, but the real warning sign is Andrew Luck may have plateaued in 2012-13 and simply can never be the transcendent quarterback his talent promised he'd be. He lit up the scoreboard at home against the Lions and still lost, then struggled against a Broncos team he'd dominated. San Diego has won six of the last seven meetings with the Colts, and Philip Rivers is 1-0 against Andrew Luck so far.
Chiefs over NY Jets - The Chiefs are smarting after losing to the Houston Texans, and they face a high-scoring NY Jets team that's looking like a team going for the playoffs. I doubt Andy Reid will let the loss in Houston carry over to this meeting with the Jets, a team Reid has yet to lose to.
Eagles over Steelers - The Steelers have a potent offense and a proven championship quarterback, but in the Eagles they face a team that's well ahead of expectations and has a quarterback in Carson Wentz who's looking like the real deal.
Cowboys over Bears - Why John Fox keeps Jay Cutler remains baffling as he is a failure, as Dak Prescott steadily proves himself to be one to watch down the road.
Saints over Falcons - Neither team has proven they're up to a playoff bid, and one should start to be concerned that Drew Brees is no longer the elite competitor. Matt Ryan certainly is not an elite anything even with a strong win at Oakland.
So Week One of the 2016 has exploded forth into the most exciting opening week since 1999. Takes on all thirty-two teams -
Broncos escape again, Panthers still can't hold a lead - The Broncos defense gets more credit than it deserves and it showed again as they once again didn't stop a game-winning drive - they escaped when the Panthers missed a FGA at the end. The Panthers continued a trend where they struggled all 2015 to hold a lead and here they didn't hold on again. The Panthers also got beaten up with some dirty hits but Cam Newton played tough in the best football tradition.
Against the Indianapolis Colts the Detroit Lions did something doubly astonishing - Matthew Stafford pulled off a spectacular win against a quality opponent (something he simply hasn't been able to do outside of four times in thirty-four attempts) but the Lions wound up exposing the Colts as even dumber than we thought in the Puntfumble game as they gagged up a safety on the final play.
The Chargers suffered a loss they may not recover from as they continue to become irrelevant.
One struggles to recall when a team rebounded from blowing a three-touchdown lead at a time when they haven't win anything all decade and are coming off a miserable 4-12 season - Week Two suddenly becomes Must Win for San Diego is staring at failure already. The Chiefs for their part made a statement about their own toughness as they've won twelve of their last thirteen games
The Raiders made a statement - this time they're running for the playoffs.
The Saints also made a statement - they're still not that good.
The Patriots are better prepared than people were assuming after Rob Gronkowski and 3/5ths of the starting O-line were ruled out for the game at Arizona. The Cardinals for their part actually overcame stupid mistakes, especially late, for a FGA that astonishingly missed.
The NY Jets got away with Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2015 before he finally cost them - they won't get as far in 2016. The Bengals continue to be regular-season muscle.
Other takes -
The Falcons need to start planning for the era after Matt Ryan as he proved again he will never be the answer. The Bucs meanwhile got off to an encouraging start to Jameis Winston's second season.
The Ravens won, but they played poorly in doing so. The Bills meanwhile played worse in perhaps the weakest game on the Week One slate.
The Titans looked like a nowhere team with a nowhere future after gagging against a Vikings team that looked weak after their reaction to Teddy Bridgewater's injury. Week Two usually isn't a must-win in the NFL - like with the Chargers it suddenly is for the Titans, this with a second-year quarterback in Marcus Mariota who has what it takes to make them winners.
The Texans have become the AFC South team - while the Bears proved again that they are worthless.
The Dolphins are irrelevant - but the Seahawks didn't acquit themselves all that well.
The Jaguars played well but need to step it up more, as the Packers got away again.
The Eagles got off to a solid start, and the Browns now see how worthless Robert Griffin III is.
One of the bigger surprises was the NY Giants upsetting a Cowboys team that has a better quarterback in Dak Prescott than what they ever had with Tony Romo.
The Steelers made a mockery of the Washington Redskins 38-16 while the San Francisco 49ers started Blaine Gabbert and Gabbert was almost flawless in shutting out the punchless Rams 28-0; Gabbert's career rebirth in particular serves as a rebuke to Colin Kaepernick.
And so it went in Week One with Week Two beckoning
And so the 2016 preseason concludes and the unofficial official first NFL prediction of the season is offered.
Panthersover Broncos - The Broncos looked somewhat like the 2013 Ravens in they come into defending their title with a massive overhaul, this one at the quarterback. Mark Sanchez was signed as the Name quarterback and he promptly played his way to the bench (and subsequently got cut) behind Trevor Siemian while Paxton Lynch looks to redshirt this year. The Panthers come in after an uneven preseason and a downright abysmal performance by Cam Newton in the third game, but that shouldn't be enough to stop a Panthers team that hasn't gone through the instability the Broncos have.
Ravens over Bills - 2015 was a dismal season for the Ravens and they face a Bills team that has shown sign of improvement. Past breakdown of discipline (which led to some public player complaints) remains a staple of Rex and Rob Ryan as they face Rex's old team.
Packers over Jaguars - The improvement of the Jaguars is legitimate, but it hasn't reached the point yet of being able to consistently hang with or stop a high-powered offense like the Packers. Aaron Rodgers gets Jordy Nelson back while Blake Bortles has two ace receivers.
Chiefs over Chargers - A decidedly lifeless preseason and the ugly contract fight with pass rushing rookie Joey Bosa permeated a Chargers team demanding a new stadium rather than actually rebuild Qualcomm, and Philip Rivers' empty 4,700 yards in 2015 atop a mediocre decade indicate he isn't the answer anymore. San Diego hits the ground against a Kansas City team that won eleven straight and broke through for their first playoff win since Joe Montana's 1993 season - and ironically against the same city (Houston) that Montana shot down all those years ago.
Buccaneers over Falcons - Matt Ryan continued to show nothing in the way of improvement in the preseason or the previous three seasons and they get an improving Bucs squad to open their last season at the Georgia Dome.
Texans over Bears - The Bears at times looked very undisciplined this preseason and they are stuck with Jay Cutler, who will never amount to anything beyond a volume stats whore with nothing in the way of substantive achievement. Brock Osweiler bolted the Broncos for Bill O'Brien and the Texans (and a fat contract), and as preseason went on began to show reason to have faith in him.
Saints over Raiders - The end of Oakland as home of the Raiders looks like a done deal with Las Vegas slated to build a new stadium (we think) and the Las Vegas Raiders name now trademarked. The Raiders are an improving outfit with Derek Carr and they should show fight against a Saints team that was atrocious on defense last season and didn't put up enough offense to overcome it; the Saints have to overcome recent home field disadvantage as they've lost seven of their last sixteen home games.
Bengals over NY Jets - The Jets got Ryan Fitzpatrick back but his ceiling is lower than most other quarterbacks and the Jets get a Bengals team that has two quality quarterbacks at least as far as the regular season goes with Andy Dalton. The Jets under Todd Bowles are no pushovers, though, with a culture of discipline the Jets organization hasn't seen since the Parcells period.
Eagles over Browns - The Eagles are rebuilding after a surprising collapse of Chip Kelly's regime and have shown something under Doug Pederson; they get the perpetually-unachieving Browns first, debuting Redskins washout Robert Griffin III.
The Titans enter 2016 with some momentum
Titans over Vikings - The Titans enter 2016 with some momentum from preseason after a strong game against the Raiders and overall, and with Marcus Mariota looking to continue improvement, a potential draft steal of steals in receiver Tajae Sharpe to go with genuine receiver depth for the first time in a long time, and a much-improved running game with Derrick Henry and veteran DeMarco Murray looking like a real deal. Here though they get a more opportune opportunity with a Vikings team that not only lost quarterback Teddy Bridgewater for the season but whose reaction to his injury - cancelling practice and then seeing Mike Zimmer crying in the press conference - is indicative of a weak outfit; a strong team that lost its quarterback would see him leave in the ambulance and then the team would immediately resume practice - in Belichick-speak it's called Next Man Up. The shocking trade with the Eagles means Sam Bradford takes over a talented roster and if the Vikings can salvage anything out of this season Bradford has to step up his game - and stay healthy.
Seahawks over Dolphins - The Seahawks showed why they're still NFC West controllers with some eye-popping play by Russell Wilson in - of all things - preseason. Of course Wilson had already built a potential Hall Of Fame resume the previous four seasons so game-winning play is old hat for him. He gets a Dolphins team showing lifelessness with Ryan Tannehill playing his way out of the league.
Cowboys over NY Giants - Even without his back injury, Tony Romo looked like he was becoming rookie Rayne Dakota Prescott's backup for the Cowboys, but the back injury has merely accelerated the timeline of the Dak Prescott era. The Cowboys' overall roster has looked strong, especially the O-line, and Prescott's play in preseason has been encouraging overall; he gets his first chance to make something of it as he takes on perennial foe the New York Giants, who've looked strikingly sloppy on all sides of the ball during preseason.
Colts over Lions - Some oddly schizophrenic play by the Colts this preseason may raise a few doubts for 2016 after a subpar and injury-shot 2015. Andrew Luck has been spectacular yet he has also been woefully inconsistent, with roughly half his wins coming against division foes and his play against the AFC East in particular has been outright worthless. He opens 2016 against the Colts' former coach Jim Caldwell, who leads a Lions team that has looked weak in the preseason. Matthew Stafford also has a bad reputation - 3-40 - against quality opponents in his career and the last time he faced the AFC South the games themselves were super-competitive yet he ultimately failed to deliver the wins.
Patriots over Cardinals - The four-game Brady suspension starts and Jimmy Garoppolo takes over under center with some solid play in his first two preseason games and some struggle against the Panthers while not playing against the Giants; the overall offense has looked curiously raw with some poor O-line play, several key injuries, and an old problem resurfacing - inability to get quality play from well-regarded free agent pass catchers. Loudmouthed tight end Martellus Bennett was signed from the Bears but has been all but irrelevant in the preseason and a fumble against the Giants got him benched a la butterfingered ex-Patriot Stevan Ridley. The performance of Tom Brady in his two preseason games merely showed how behind his backups are and also illustrated his own rustiness as he needed the entire first half against the Giants to establish unit cohesion and rhythm. The Patriots thus get a Cardinals team that is certainly very good but which people seem to overrate somewhat; it's still a Carson Palmer team and he has to face a far-improved Patriots defense with ex-Brown Barkevious Mingo arriving via latter-August trade suddenly exploding late in the preseason.
Steelers over Redskins - The Steelers are not what they were in 2010 or in 2011 before falling in the famous 3:16 Game loss to the Broncos; in fact that loss began a striking slide into mediocrity for the Steelers (29 losses, two of them playoff losses, in the last four seasons) as their shaky win over the Bengals marked their first playoff win since 2010 yet merely made their subsequent loss to the overrated Broncos little in the way of any surprise. They hit the season against a Redskins outfit that showed real improvement but still has a reputation for collapsing when asked to handle success.
Rams over 49ers - Colin Kaepernick not only insulted the intelligence of the human race by refusing to stand for the national anthem and justifying it by claiming non-existent oppression of minorities (his own upbringing disproves his premise) but in doing so atop miserable play the previous two seasons and his trade demand when the Niners changed coaches he proved to other NFL clubs that he is not a leader or a reliable player - he is a spoiled petulant brat once heralded as potentially the greatest quarterback the league could see but whose game is just freelancing and relying on athleticism over intelligence. Blaine Gabbert showed the beginning of a career turnaround with some solid play taking over halfway through 2015 but he has a tough test against a Rams team getting more than deserving attention for moving to Los Angeles - the worst sports market in the country as shown by the failure of the Rams and Raiders there before atop the more-recent failure of California Speedway, the collapse of popularity for the Lakers, continuing mediocre fan support for any of its other pro teams, and some ugly fan set-tos during Rams preseason games at the long-outdated Memorial Coliseum. The Rams have been a mediocre team the last four seasons with just 27 wins, but some of them (such as over the Colts and Broncos) have been eye-openers. Jared Goff has shown struggle as a rookie and likely won't see action at least in the season's first half.
