Special Teams Make Special Plays Entering Week 11

The Patriots special teams proved decisive in New England's 41-16 massacre of the Broncos, and New England's investment in special teams has long paid off.   

Amid the escalating war between Jerry Jones and Roger Goodell - and the laughable opulence of Goodell's reported contract extension demands including $50 million, a plane for life, and health insurance for his family (which Goodell can already pay for himself) - the story of Martellus Bennett quitting on the faltering Packers and jerking his way into getting cut and then getting signed by the Patriots is a curious melodrama.   Regardless of the machinations of a player who's been an ass everywhere except Foxboro, we have Week Ten coming up -

Titans over Steelers -  Tennessee has now won four straight games against AFC North teams and has won seven of the last ten meetings with AFC Central legacy teams (the Houston Texans alas really don't count as an AFC Central legacy team despite Houston being one of that division's longtime host towns) so they go to a Steelers team that had to rally against a scrappier-than-expected Colts team.   The Titans have outscored the Steelers 205 to 187 this season while the Steelers are second in points allowed.   Both teams are all but the same in turnover differential (Tennessee has a slight edge at plus-One to Pittsburgh's minus-One) and Roethlisberger and Mariota are roughly the same in touchdown to INT ratio; the Titans have an edge in run defense as well, so expect another taut affair.


Ravens over Packers - The surprise was that the Packers beat the Bears.   They are now 5-4 but taking on the 4-5 Ravens, who look like better competition now than was the case when Rodgers was still there.   The Ravens haven't beaten the Packers since bludgeoning Brett Favre 48-3 in 2005 yet the Packers don't look like a playoff team; that the Ravens aren't either doesn't lessen that they now have a better shot than they would be thought of having at the end of September.



Buccaneers over Dolphins - This was supposed to be Week One, but of course circumstances beyond anyone's control intervened.   The Bucs got a needed win over another AFC East team last week and now get another such team, this one the increasingly inept Dolphins, this despite a surprisingly competitive match against the Panthers last time out.   Ryan Fitzpatrick, the presumptive starter, got swept by the Dolphins last year, but that was with Ryan Tannehill as quarterback.

Saints over Redskins - Shocker of a stat - Drew Brees is 1-4 against the Skins as Saints quarterback (2-4 lifetime) as his Saints host the Skins on a seven-game winning streak.   The Skins can put up points as they did against a good defense in the Vikings and turnover differential is surprisingly close at minus-One for Washington and plus-Three for New Orleans.   The Saints however are exploding, so we think they win even if it takes a 52-35 style score to do it.


Jaguars over Browns - Two of the very first wins in Jaguars history were against the Cleveland Browns before they transmuted into the Baltimore Ravens.   There is literally nothing in this matchup that favors Cleveland. 


Cardinals over Texans -  The Texans are now taking a Savage beating with Tom as their quarterback.  The schizophrenic Cardinals got mildly embarrassed at home to the Seahawks and now go to a faltering Texans team.   Bill O'Brien's postgame acceptance of responsibility for poor quarterback play showcases again his inability to do something he is supposed to do - develop a quarterback.

Rams over Vikings - This could be Game Of The Year, two 7-2 powers head on.   Curiously the Rams' two losses have both been home losses as they host a Vikings team that is fifth in points allowed but only tenth in scoring, while the Rams are first in scoring, fourth in points allowed, and plus-Seven in turnover differential.   Minnesota's edge could be on the ground at 118 yards per game, the same number allowed per game by the Rams. 


Chiefs over NY Giants - The most damning evidence that Ben McAdoo will be fired is that he's spent his time enabling Odell Beckham Jr and it's clear the other players see this favoritism for an inept receiver who's a bitch.    The question now is whether Eli Manning goes to the Jaguars for 2018.


Lions over Bears -  Now we wonder if John Fox will last in Chicago.   If Matthew Stafford has to beat a bad team, he'll do it, albeit it may make it look like a deadlocked playoff game to do it. 


Bills over Chargers -  The Bills may now be falling out of the playoff race (they're clinging to the Number 6 seed at present) but they get an underwhelming Chargers team this week.   San Diego is woefully behind the Bills in turnover differential (Buffalo remains at plus-Eleven there), running the ball, and especially stopping the run (presently dead last in rushing yards allowed per game).    


Broncos over Bengals - Maybe this week the collapsing Broncos get a respite with the subpar Bengals, coming in off a bitter loss at Tennessee, 1-3 since their bye week, 30th in scoring, and with Vontaze Burfict getting tossed from games yet again.    One wonders if either coach will make it after Week 17.


Patriots over Raiders, Mexico City -  The Raiders have faltered to 4-5, the Patriots now appear to be the unstoppable machine they've largely been for over fifteen years.    Most encouraging for the Patriots - Tom Brady threw to nine different pass catchers and the stats between catches was strikingly even.   Spreading the ball breaks up the opponent defense every time.


Eagles over Cowboys -  The Eagles lead the NFC for a reason, and the Cowboys suddenly look a lot weaker without Zeke Elliott.   NFC East games usually become tight affairs so we should expect a taut game and a lot of points with both teams in the top-eight in points and midpack in points allowed. 


Seahawks over Falcons - The Seahawks stubbed their toe at home against the Redskins but now get a Falcons team that has struggled this season, especially on turnovers (minus-Three to Seattle's plus-Six).   Oddly, the Falcons are sixth in pass defense where the Seahawks are just 13th. 


So we await special plays by special players on special teams - and everyone else. 

Bread And Butter Lead To Week Three

The Patriots scrapped the gameplan used against the Chiefs and went back to their bread-and-butter offense and crushed the New Orleans Saints


Week Two saw an expected improvement in crispness of play outside of the Thursday Night affair between Houston and Cincinnati; there is also a subplot with the CFL banning padded full-contact practices, a change the NFL is monitoring but which won't be reciprocated.    With two weeks of the season, some trends are beginning to develop.    We look back at Week Two while making our picks for Week Three -


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Rams over 49ers - 

The Rams' schedule turned out to be easier than some expected, though the Redskins looked like a good team again.   The Rams now fly to San Francisco with the Niners staring at 0-2.   They've shown some more fight than expected, notably at Seattle.



Patriots over Texans -New England diversified the offense by diversifying who got the touches, this after putting in an Edelman offense against the Chiefs.   The Patriots also dodged a bullet with injuries to Gronkowski, Chris Hogan, and newcomer Philip Dorsett, who caught three passes for 68 yards and thus showed he can flesh out a depleted receiving corps that didn't get a catch until 13:09 into the first quarter at New Orleans.    Injury to Donta Hightower appears to be such that if he misses any time at all it will be two games tops.    They get their first look at DeShaun Watson, who has thrown 47 passes with 27 completions for a measely five yards per completion (and a passer rating of 68.15) and whose primary attack so far is rushing the ball (seven rushes for 83 yards and a score).  The Texans defense is long hyped but got exposed by the Jaguars and the Patriots are not running the Edelman offense anymore, which makes the odds higher for the struggling Texans.  J.J. Watt in particular always seems to go into Witness Protection when he plays the Patriots.

The Raiders are the Raiders again, and the NY Jets are.......well, in full Suck For Sam - that's Darnold - mode, right down to a punt bouncing off Kalif Raymond's helmet and becoming a Raiders scoring drive just past the two-minute warning

Dolphins over NY Jets -   22nd in points while gagging up four turnovers, dead last in points allowed - Suck For Sam is the operating phrase of the 2017 NY Jets, with about the only positive being Jermaine Kearse.   The Dolphins meanwhile come in after an escape job at the Chargers, their first win in their first game of the season

The Titans overcame a costly INT by Mariota to crush the Jaguars, who crashed back to earth after their eye-opening win over the Texans

Ravens over Jaguars at London -The NFL hits London for the first time this year and the Ravens come in at 2-0 while the Jaguars got a rude awakening in a 37-16 home embarrassment by the Titans.   While the Jags are averaging 22 points scored the Ravens are averaging that same number with ten points per game allowed, plus ten turnovers forced.   Joe Flacco hasn't put up monster numbers but he has three touchdowns to two INTs, slightly better than Blake Bortles and his seeming regression back to subpar quarterbacking status.



Buccaneers over Vikings - The Vikings have quarterback problems again with Sam Bradford forced to sit out the loss at Pittsburgh; if he can't go against the Bucs we're not sure the Vikings can generate enough for a win.   Their former NFC Central division mates are in the top-seven in points and points allowed, albeit having only played one game.   Forcing four turnovers (one Robert McClain's pick six) vs the Bears certainly does make a case for the Bucs defense while Jameis Winston played a solid game.



Eagles over NY Giants - The Eagles fell again to their former coach and didn't force a turnover after forcing four by the Redskins, but they get a Giants team that is 0-2, last in offense and whose star - Odell Beckham Jr. - is transmuting more into a marketing-oriented locker room cancer instead of a playmaker.   The irony is Eli Manning has completed some 75% of his passes so far vs. Carson Wentz' 60%, yet is playing so poorly his own head coach has publicly called him out - not a sign of a season that is developing in a positive manner.



Panthers over Saints - It's now obvious the Saints have no future with Sean Payton and perhaps not with Drew Brees; 0-2 advertises at best another 7-9 season as they take on the offensively-mediocre Panthers who with that are leading the league in fewest points allowed.   Cam Newton's career-long struggles with completion percentage continue at 59 and change and just two touchdowns.  Rookie Christian McCaffrey has shown spark but not much sustained production at an abysmal 2.7 yards per carry; he's done more damage catching the ball (nine catches for 72 yards).   Given the recent history of this series with back-to-back 41-38 games twice in the last three meetings we could see points scored here.


Colts over Browns -  This is a risky pick because the Colts have collapsed (they're in the bottom six in the league on both sides of the ball) to where 8-8 may be beyond their reach.   The Browns aren't in better shape though after DeShone Kizer went out with a migrane against the Ravens.   Right now we think Jacoby Brissett will start for the Colts; he constituted an improvement over Scott Tolzien and the Colts were competitive to the end against the Cardinals, but this one could get ugly.

The Falcons are now 2-0 while Aaron Rodgers fell to 1-1

Falcons over Lions -  The Falcons are showing no sign of a Superbowl collapse hangover, though they could have done somewhat better putting away their game against the perennially-overrated Packers.   This week they travel to Detroit, 2-0 after a comeback against the Cards and manhandling the Giants.   Look for the points to pile up here.

Trevor Siemian exploded the Broncos offense like we haven't seen it since Peyton Manning's 2013 season 

Broncos over Bills -  The Bills didn't get it done against an offensively-mediocre Panthers team, this week they face a Broncos team that is fourth in points scored after averaging 20th in points scored the previous two seasons.   Trevor Siemian didn't put up this kind of explosiveness before (four touchdowns, 68% completion, a 116 passer rating) and such a surge of offense spells trouble for opponents down the road, provided he sustains it - something he didn't quite do in his quasi-rookie season. 


Steelers over Bears -  How much longer will the Mike Glennon experiment continue?  At this rate we don't think he'll be starter by latter-October as the Steelers come in looking for their third-straight win.

Titans over Seahawks -   The Seahawks are fifth in defense but that is somewhat illusory after a loss to the mediocre Packers and the win over the struggling 49ers, plus the Seahawks have locker room issues and have had them since Richard Sherman played his way to getting traded only to see the Seahawks unable to finish that job; Michael Bennett's self-serving character assassination of Vegas cops further displays a poisonous Seahawks locker room culture, one not conducive to winning - and something they haven't done well on the road, having lost ten (with the 2016 tie at Arizona for good measure) of their last twenty road games.  They go to Tennessee fresh off the Titans' 37-16 pasting of the Jaguars, presently ninth in scoring though Marcus Mariota's completion percentage in two games  reached 60% against the Raiders but faded to 55 and change against the Jaguars with a pick. 

Packers over Bengals - At the Falcons Aaron Rodgers lost for the 42nd time in 52 comeback attempts and the 32nd time in 36 games when he's trailed by at least two scores.  Should the Falcons finish with a winning record Rodgers will thus have lost in 36 comeback tries against a quality opponent; overall the Packers are 15th in points and 17th in points allowed.    This week Rodgers gets a Bengals team that has collapsed almost out of the box despite being seventh in fewest points allowed.

2015 breakdown of AJ McCarron

The idiotic story that some Bengals players are lobbying for the inept Colin Kaepernick instead of Dalton's backup AJ McCarron is mind-boggling, for McCarron when he had to play in 2015 showed genuine form and in particular was far better than Andy Dalton in the playoff game that season, erasing a 15-0 Steelers lead and putting the Bengals into the lead late.     



Chiefs over Chargers  -  USC outdrew the combined attendances of the Chargers and Rams in LA - this spells for all to see that the NFL made a complete mistake moving even one team to the worst sports market in the country. The Chiefs make their first trip to LA since November 10, 1991, a 27-20 win at Anaheim Stadium won on Derrick Thomas' fumble return score in the fourth.  The Chiefs come in looking like world-beaters despite being 25th in points allowed, while the Chargers are livid at back-to-back losses on missed FGAs by the rookie YoungHoe Koo, a mind-numbingly bad 25% field goal percentage.   The worst part for the Chargers is Philip Rivers has stormed to 73.6% completion (106.4 passer rating) and four touchdowns; he faces Alex Smith and his 77% completion rate (a whopping 134.1 passer rating). 

             

Raiders over Redskins - The Skins are mediocre at 1-1 and 27th in points allowed; they are getting decent play out of Kirk Cousins. At the Rams three Redskins backs erupted for 222 yards and the Skins have averaged 5.2 yards per carry so far. The Raiders come in leading the league in points, tenth in points allowed, 126.5 passer rating for Derek Carr, and are themselves averaging 5.2 YPC on the ground but are getting hit at 4.8 YPC allowed, they've also lost three of their last five road games.  Even so the Raiders look like the Raiders again where the Redskins look like the dysfunctional mess they've been since the mid-1990s.



Cardinals over Cowboys  -   An ominous development was showcased in Dallas' loss to the Broncos - when Zeke Elliott was shut down the Cowboys offense fell apart - Dak Prescott threw 50 passes with 30 completions and two touchdowns but was picked off twice; targeted sixteen times Dez Bryant had just seven catches for 59 yards and a score.    That the Cowboys are this one-dimensional - and publicly attacking each other with the story Elliott quit on the game - shakes confidence in their season going forward as they go to a Cardinals team that pulled off an unexpected win at Indianapolis. 



We thus await Week Three

So Arrives Week One

The fourth game of the 2017 preseason has yet to be played as of this writing but by now the nitty gritty of preparing for Week One of the NFL season is all but underway.   With that, predictions for Week One will be in short order, so we present perhaps the first such batch -

Patriots over Chiefs -  Predictions by fans and some media of a 19-0 season began with the free agent acquisitions made by the Patriots; Bill Belichick never buys into such predictions, and the Patriots have even less reason to feel they will go unbeaten now.   Julian Edelman's season-ending injury is the one getting the most attention, but the mediocre performance of the line of scrimmage defense already led to the release of Kony Ealy - among the free agent flameouts of the Belichick era this may be the most graphic given Ealy was already in Belichick's doghouse when camp started - and the Patriots' depth at the line of scrimmage already looks questionable.   Malcolm Butler also is living down to a media report proclaiming him the most overrated player on the Patriots roster.  

And yet the Edelman injury is a blessing in disguise - Brady periodically lapses into forcing the ball to one guy at the expense of everyone else (illustrated in the Football Life episode on Belichick where he laments the lack of receiver depth to his staff before 2009's loss at the NY Jets, and also shown in Brady's dismal performance in the infamous 2014 game at Kansas City) and when the Falcons took away Edelman in the Superbowl it forced Brady to spread the ball more and thus unclog the passing game.   James White, Rex Burkhead, Dion Lewis, and Danny Amendola will see more catches and the Patriots may see Austin Carr on the roster to go with Brandin Cooks (curiously quiet in preseason) and Gronkowski; Dwayne Allen may be the odd man out after a nonexistent preseason.

For the Chiefs the season-ending injury to Spencer Ware is more concerning given the Chiefs' lesser depth compared to the Patriots.   The Patriots also hold the overall edge against Andy Reid, 5-2, and the Chiefs are clearly waiting for Patrick Mahones to develop, so Alex Smith can see his days numbered, a disadvantageous situation heading into Foxboro.

Bills over NY Jets - The new game in the NFL is Suck For Sam - as in USC quarterback Sam Darnold.   Buffalo and the Jets have hemorrhaged veteran personnel - Anquan Boldin retired just two weeks into Bills camp - and for the Jets the call to tank the season has been an open story.   The Bills have changed coaches, so there is more reason to establish some kind of positive momentum than is the case with the Jets, a team forever haunted by history - fifty years ago Joe Namath became the first quarterback to reach 4,000 passing yards and also authored the Jets' first ever winning season; twenty years ago the Jets paid a king's ransom for Bill Parcells, while Tennessee quarterback Peyton Manning inquired whether the Jets were interested in drafting him; when they declined Peyton stayed at Tennessee for one more year and got drafted by the Indianapolis Colts - and history changed.  

The present Jets have to start Josh McCown by default as Bryce Petty despite a huge output in the preseason game against the Jets has not proven he warrants being starter, and Christian Hackenberg looks more and more like a flat-out failure.   So Suck For Sam gets underway.



Texans over Jaguars - Even before the hurricane ravaged the Houston area and thus has put a massive damper on the Texans' season going in, Houston's team hasn't looked ready for prime time with either Tom Savage or Deshaun Watson.   Watson in particular looks like a bad quarterback, relying on running, throwing on the run, showing no small-ball technique, reading of defense, or any of the techniques that real quarterbacks master to become winners.   Houston's defense is ranked very well but is certainly beatable, if not even overrated, and Bill O'Brien has yet to prove he can do better than 9-7 entering his fourth season as Texans head coach.  

The Jaguars, though, are in worse shape and may also be in the Suck For Sam sweepstakes.   Blake Bortles' mechanics problems are still there, his quarterbacking acumen hasn't shown much improvement if any, and the offensive line has been a mess.   Tom Coughlin is in the first year of his return to Jacksonville, now as de facto GM, and the mess he's inherited is such that rebuilding will take years, this after the many years spent trying to rebuild from the wreckage of the Blaine Gabbert failure.  

Bengals over Ravens -  The Bengals come into 2017 looking no better than the six-win flop of 2016.   Vontaze Burfict faces another suspension for another questionable hit, this one on Anthony Sherman of the Chiefs, and Andy Dalton has looked like a quarterback who plateaued and is now beginning to decline.    Dalton did show some moxie in the game against the Redskins, and he faces a Ravens team he has bested seven of the last nine meetings and whose own quarterback, Joe Flacco, has battled knee concerns all camp.   John Harbaugh has said he will start this game, but one has to feel a lack of confidence in Flacco after going 13-19 since losing the 2014 divisional playoff at New England. 

Raiders over Titans -   The Raiders have looked noticeably sharper in preseason than the Titans, who scored just ten combined points in losses to the Jets and Bears; Alex Tanney won no confidence with a poor performance against the Chiefs.   The game against the Bears with multiple penalties, an ejection, and just one touchdown was embarrassing, though lack of receiver depth with numerous veteran guys held out didn't help anything.

With that the Titans should be a lot better than this - they did show fight in the game against the Panthers after the three-point embarrassment at the Jets - and this game should be a lot closer, facing a Raiders team that won twelve games last year and returning their quarterback of the future in Derek Carr while ex-Seahawk Marshawn Lynch showed a little of his old muscle in preseason; whether it proves sustainable remains to be seen.  

Eagles over Redskins -  The Redskins looked like the dysfunctional mess they've been almost since the end of the first Joe Gibbs era in the off-season and the controversy over Kirk Cousins' contract will only get worse now.     They face an Eagles team that suddenly looks improved over 2016.


Buccaneers over Dolphins - The injury that ended Ryan Tannehill's season led to the unexpected signing of the weak Jay Cutler, who played decently under Adam Gase in Chicago, but it is impossible to take Jay Cutler that seriously, especially facing an improving Bucs team, though preseason has been a little erratic.


Falcons over Bears - Of the six losses for the Falcons in 2016, curiously four of them were home losses - the Superbowl included as the Falcons were the designated home team - so going to Chicago would seem easier to start the season.   The Bears, though, for the first time in awhile have reason to believe there will be improvement, though Mitchell Trubinsky likely won't see any action outside of mop-up duty later in the season.   Given the relative porousness of the Falcons defense the Bears should out up some points here.


Steelers over Browns - DeShone Kizer has been designated the starter for the Browns - thus presumably ending the Brock Osweiler era.   The Steelers, though, enter with Ben Roethlisberger not looking committed to the game as much as in the past and with the division looking weaker than in recent seasons.


Lions over Cardinals - Matthew Stafford's league-record extension will make the quarterback market crazier - and also whet appetites for more such contracts despite the top-heaviness of such an approach.   Armed with this new contract Stafford takes on a mediocre Cardinals team that still has Carson Palmer and whose only road wins last year were against all three of their division foes.   Stafford's improvement as a quarterback has been noted by the varied experts as he continues switching away from the Calvin Johnson bomb squader to the small-ball quarterback that is the kind that wins Superbowls.    His abysmal performance against quality opponents, though, showed up again in the Patriots game, where Jake Rudock led the comeback from down 24-0.   Rudock - the Patriots radio broadcast cleverly noted his status as a sixth-round draft pick from Michigan - won't usurp Stafford's job, but actually beating good teams is a priority for the 2009 first rounder.

Colts over Rams - The Colts are a mess, and so are the Rams,  but the Colts just got better with the trade for Jacoby Brissett.  With  Andrew Luck presumably out until until the Colts' home game against the Jaguars it seems a no-brainer Brissett will start - his game against the NY Giants showed genuine growth as a quarterback, while the Rams are stuck with Jared Goff, who looks like a complete failure of a quarterback.  


Seahawks over Packers -  Surprisingly the Seahawks have exploded in preseason and look by far the most ready team in the NFC for the season.    They travel to a Packers team that has bested them the last few meetings, but which looked rather sluggish in their game at Denver.   The Seahawks did regress as a road team in 2016, but in Russell Wilson the Hawks have the better quarterback.


Panthers over 49ers - The John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan era begins after a surprisingly competitive preseason, though expecting major improvement right away is too much to ask.   Suck For Sam may be a non-option here, though all the Niners have is Brian Hoyer as they take on a Panthers team smarting from 2016's collapse.


NY Giants over Cowboys - So far in preseason the loss of Zeke Elliott to league suspension - though Fort Worth Star-Telegram reportage suggested the accusation against Elliott may not in fact be truthful - appears not to be in the Cowboys favor; even with Elliott the Cowboys have lost three straight to the Giants in the Joyful Heart Curse and the Cowboys didn't acquit themselves particularly well against the Raiders.   Injury to Odell Beckham Jr. in preseason may hamper the Giants offense.  

Vikings over Saints - Neither team has shown much in preseason; the Vikings host this game and the Saints have been a 7-9 team four of the last five seasons; the can still put up offense but Drew Brees has not put up clutch wins lately.


Broncos over Chargers -  The Broncos are stuck with Trevor Siemian, who has shown no growth as a quarterback, but they face a Chargers team with no discernable LA audience and which has played poorly throughout the preseason, even in a win over the lowly Rams.   Thirty years ago Chargers legends Dan Fouts and Kellen Winslow retired after San Diego won eight straight and lost the remainder of the season.  Twenty years ago the Chargers fell to 3-13 and wound up with the worst draft pick in history; to think they may be no better off now than in 1997 is hair-pulling for Charger fans.


So we await Week One.

Aaron Rodgers Mister Irrelevant Redux

So the NFL now has its Superbowl LI contestants and the Conference Championship Games were revelatory about how good the New England Patriots are and how much a fraud the Pittsburgh Steelers and especially the Green Bay Packers are.  

Back in 2011 and 2012 several pieces first raised analytical awareness of Aaron Rodgers' inability to win clutch games.    Entering 2012 Rodgers was Mister Irrelevant in the fourth quarter at just 3-18 in comeback attempts.   By October 2013 - following Green Bay's 34-30 loss to the Bengals in which Rodgers erased a 14-0 gap, led 30-14, and when a 4th-down fumble became the go-ahead Bengals touchdown failed to lead the comeback - he fell to 5-24 in comeback attempts.

And since then, nothing has qualitatively gotten any better - my quick and dirty count indicates he is now 10-41 in comeback attempts, and even more damning, by my quick and dirty count he is 4-31 in games where he trailed by at least two scores and also 0-35 in comebacks against quality opponents.   For 2016 he finished 0-7 in games where he had to stage a fourth quarter comeback and 0-6 when he trailed by at least two scores; his only two game-winning drives were against the Bears - after blowing a 17-point lead - and at the Cowboys - where he was outscored 18-6 in the fourth quarter.  Indeed the fourth quarter of Green Bay's 2016 games is illustrative of Rodgers, doing nothing well beyond frontrunning, and inability to make clutch plays -

@ Jaguars - 3 points in a game the Packers never trailed

@ Vikings - 7 points down 17-7, lost game

vs Lions - shutout in fourth of game the Packers never trailed

vs NY Giants - 6 points in game they never trailed

vs Cowboys - 10 points when they trailed 27-9, lost game

vs Bears - 13 points where they were leading at the start of the fourth

@ Falcons - 8 points, fell behind 33-32, Rodgers comeback failed, lost game

vs Colts - 13 points when trailing by 18, lost game

@ Titans - shutout in fourth, lost game

@ Redskins - 14 points when down 22-10, outscored 20-14 in fourth, lost game

@ Eagles - 10 points in game they never trailed

vs Texans - 14 points after game was tied entering the fourth

vs Seahawks - 10 points in game already up 28-3 entering the fourth

@ Bears - 3 points after blowing 17-point lead

vs Vikings - 10 points when up 28-10 entering the fourth

@ Lions - 14 points when leading 17-14 entering fourth

vs NY Giants - 14 points when leading 24-13 entering the fourth

@ Cowboys - 6 points where they blew a 15-point lead and were outscored 18-6

@ Atlanta - 6 points in game they never led, lost game

 
The funniest Green Bay meltdown of 2016 was also the most prescient toward Green Bay's ultimate massacre at the hands of another southern division NFL team


By this point of Rodgers' career it's obvious he is not a great quarterback. When he faces clutch situations, he falters - if he has to stage a comeback, he fails.    People fall in love with the athleticism and arm strength, but too often these are substitutes for smart quarterbacking the way he plays - his lack of a small ball attack is a fundamental weakness, as he prefers the spectacular play - athleticism and arm strength.   Indeed what is striking the more one watches him is he so often gets away with what dumb quarterbacks usually do.   

And so he falls short yet again and has now lost in the playoffs six straight seasons, 5-6 in overall playoff games in that span.

Meanwhile there's not much to say about the Patriots' usual demolition of the Steelers beyond sayonara Steelers.  


So the two week interregnum for New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons begins.

NFL Playoffs When Valiance Doesn't Produce Victory

In the NFL valiance sometimes doesn't produce victory.

The Dallas Cowboys will forever lament what should have been yet again in a playoff loss to a Packers team that did most of its damage on Aaron Rodgers' first three drives and which was incapable of holding leads of 21-3 and 28-13.   People kept wondering how Dakota Prescott would handle his first playoff game - after early struggle he relaxed and started landing the ball downfield, and to erase a three-score lead and then tie the game twice in the final minutes, there's nothing to be ashamed of.

As for Rodgers his dependence on the Hail Mary throw didn't show up here and he showed a more conventional quarterbacking approach than he showed at times last week.   This game also displayed a longtime problem in Rodgers' game - most of his damage was done in the first three touchdown drives and he managed two field goals in the final minutes, highlighted by his spectacular connection to Jared Cook with three seconds to go, certainly clutch a performance and doubly ironic as such clutchness has been rare in his career.

The Steelers escaped from Kansas City in a game where Roethlisberger threw a pick and never once punched it in, having to settle for a new NFL record six field goals.   Alex Smith's general unreliability as a playoff quarterback had been an issue in his past but in this game he actually showed ability to step up, as he brought the Chiefs back late - a penalty on a two-point conversion proved controversial and fatal to Kansas City's chances.  



So we thus approach the Conference Championships -

Falcons over Packers - The Packers lead the Falcons 2-1 in all-time playoff meetings and Matt Ryan got only his second career playoff win in pounding the Seahawks last week; one of his playoff losses was 2010's 48-21 smackdown to the Packers, the first of four straight Packers wins in the series, a streak that ended earlier this season.   The Falcons, though, showed more physicality this go-around against the Seahawks and it should stand them in good stead against the Packers.   Seemingly everyone is gaga over Aaron Rodgers but in his earlier game at the Georgia Dome he had one scoring drive in the fourth quarter and had opportunity to get to field goal range at the very end - and threw three straight incompletions.   

This game should be high scoring because it's a dome and both offenses are clicking.    Rodgers will put up points, but his reputation as just a frontrunner isn't going away even as he pulls off these playoff wins, and it's the first time the Falcons have reached the NFC Championship Game since their immortal upset of the Minnesota Vikings in the 1998 NFC Championship Game.  

Patriots over Steelers -   The rivalry between the Patriots and Steelers has been lopsided since Drew Bledsoe and Curtis Martin eviscerated the Steelers in the 1996 Divisional Round.    The last time these two teams met in the playoffs was yet another lopsided affair, and games between the two have almost never been competitive.

A lot of people are gaga over Antonio Brown and the Steelers passing attack and it has been spectacular, but last week it was largely neutralized and this week it faces a Patriots defense that
isn't getting gashed for points and which has consistently been a second-half defense.   The Steelers also have an issue of the deportment of coach Mike Tomlin, criticized for being a cheerleader instead of a real coach by Terry Bradshaw - a criticism Tomlin's recorded tirade against the Patriots would appear to verify.

On offense the Patriots had a serious struggle against the Texans between protecting up the middle and also with Brady lapsing back into the habit of leaning on a binky - here Julian Edelman, as he and Chris Hogan were almost the only people Brady targeted all game; whenever Brady leans on a binky the offense inevitably grinds to a halt.   Hogan left last week with a knee issue after four catches for 95 yards but should be good for this coming game; also expected back is Malcolm Mitchell, out for much of the second half of the season with a knee issue.   Michael Floyd was targeted just four times and a bad Brady pass bounced off his hands into a pick - Brady needs to keep throwing to Floyd as well as Martellus Bennett, whose own game health nonetheless looked to be an issue last week.   Danny Amendola returned last week and had a key rush for twelve yards, so having him as another pass catcher is a plus.



So we await Conference Championship Sunday.

NFL Playoffs Division And Conquer

The NFL's playoffs are off and running and already we've had two football diva moments -

First Odell Beckham Jr. is doing nothing but make the case that he is a liability to the NY Giants.   He came up small yet again in a big game - and one cannot remember one time where Beckham ever raised his game even marginally in any kind of big game.   Beckham's sideline and postgame tantrums are getting worse, notably with a reported blowup after his Giants got smoked by Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.   

Beckham's marketing endeavor has by now all but surpassed his on-field production and the conclusion one can only draw now is he is not a serious football player, he is a self-marketed brand name irrelevant to winning.
Even worse is Beckham was part of a party cruise several days before the Packers game with several teammates, a sign of a lack of discipline on the part of Giants coaching apart from the awfulness of the Giants' overall performance against the overrated Packers, where they had the Packers manhandled for much of the first half and couldn't score, and couldn't stop Aaron Rodgers from yet more desperation heaves that he keeps getting away with - his overall game more and more is becoming streetball - based on freelancing and overreliance on athleticism and arm strength to get out of situations - rather than the kind of smart quarterbacking that today is personified by Tom Brady.


*****


The second diva moment came when Steelers coaching assistant Joey Porter - a former linebacker with the Steelers - was arrested outside a bar following the game.   Porter's history as a player was one of instigating fights, so getting arrested would seem to be par for the course for a guy who's not worth a damn anymore than Odell Beckham Jr.  


*****


The Steelers' win over the Dolphins was one of several curious revenge bowl games that permeated Wildcard weekend, as the Steelers avenged their earlier slaughter at Miami, while the Houston Texans manhandled the punchless Oakland Raiders - as for the first time a Houston pro football team defeated the Raiders in the playoffs after losses by the Oilers in three such contests - and the Packers got a measure of revenge over the Giants after the two playoff losses (2007 and 2011).  

 

Divisional round weekend offers more such opportunity.


Falcons over Seahawks -  This is a rematch of 2012's playoff stunner at the Georgia Dome and one recalls this 2012 meeting remains Matt Ryan's only career playoff win.   In Seattle's victory over the Lions, former Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren served as the color analyst on Westwood One's radio call, and it is doubly fitting as the Seahawks enter this game having reverted to the distinguishing characteristic of Holmgren's time as Seahawks coach - poor performance in road games (3-4-1 on the road this year).   The Seahawks even at home against a Lions team that has once and for all shown no ability to beat a quality opponent didn't play all that strongly.     It's a key game for Ryan as he has never proven he can elevate his game when it matters.

In 2015 the Patriots faced JJ Watt - and Watt was invisible.


Patriots over Texans -  The Texans managed the win over the Raiders who didn't have a capable quarterback.   It the short history of the Texans they've won once against the Patriots and the losses to the Patriots have been almost invariably embarrassing.    The Patriots enter this game with the deepest receiving corps they've had in years and the top scoring defense in the league; Houston's defense has also been strong, but Houston's seven losses speaks to that defense not being as good as the numbers might suggest.  

Steelers over Chiefs -  A lot of people are awed by Antonio Brown of the Steelers and in yet another rematch from the regular season the Steelers get a Chiefs team they annihilated in Week Four.   The caveat here is the Chiefs have forced 23 turnovers since then (plus-six in turnover differential over the Steelers in that span) with ten wins in their last twelve games, plus the way the playoffs have gone the home team enters Divisional Round weekend unbeaten.   

Cowboys over Packers   - We mentioned Aaron Rodgers' style of play - streetball, just freelancing and relying on athleticism and arm strength instead of smart quarterbacking.   The Cowboys play smarter football and have already manhandled the Packers in their own building this season.    The match between these two that will get a lot of recall is the Dez Bryant catch in 2014 that was overruled.   Dakota Prescott has shown Russell Wilson-esque calm in tough situations and the result has been Dallas' 13-3 surge.



So we thus await Odell Beckham's next meltdown and Divisional Weekend.

NFL Now Rolling Eleven

Yep, the Bengals failed in a big opportunity again, and the NY Giants are now in the fight for the NFC playoffs.



And suddenly the NFL landscape is a lot different entering Week Eleven than it was when thirteen teams were 1-3 - of course the 0-4 Browns are still winless, so on that score nothing has changed.  

So what can we think we'll see for this coming week's games?


Panthers over Saints - This is a risky pick given both teams lost last week and the Panthers' inability to hold a lead showed its ugly head again against the Chiefs.   Being at home is not advantage for the Panthers either, but neither team has looked like a playoff team despite some gaudy offenses and an aging Drew Brees is still having his hands full despite yet more 4,000-yard production.


Bengals over Bills -  The Bengals' run of playoff appearances is almost certainly over but this week they lick their wounds from another primetime flameout and get a Bills team that's been competitive but not good enough.  


Steelers over Browns -  It is simply impossible to feel the Browns can win even one game, as mediocre as the Steelers are.


Cowboys over Ravens -  The Ravens lead the AFC North and that says this division is the weakest in the league as they take on a Cowboys team that keeps taking the steps needed toward making the Superbowl.


Lions over Jaguars - One of the regrets of the season has been the regression of Blake Bortles and the Jaguars, who showed every reason to feel they would take the next step - instead it's been the division-leading Lions - that's right, I'll say it again, division-leading Lions - who may have taken that next step.  


Titans over Colts - Yes, this is a completely risky pick because of the ten straight wins by the Colts over the Titans and with the Colts coming off a bye.   The Titans, however, have shown significant improvement the last few games (especially in Marcus Mariota's command of the offense and in coaching) and they've usually played the Colts bitterly tough in this ten-game stretch of lost opportunity.   Look for the two teams to light up the scoreboard.


Chiefs over Buccaneers - While they haven't taken the next step, the Bucs have shown some improvement of late, it won't though be enough against a Chiefs team that is now in the lead in their division.  


Cardinals over Vikings - Sam Bradford has now authored the Vikings into freefall, aided by a stunning collapse of his O-line, while the Cardinals are still well within Wildcard territory and possible division upset range.  


NY Giants over Bears - The Giants are now in the Wildcard fight and the Bears are almost worse than the winless Browns.  


Dolphins over Rams - It's no longer a question of whether Adam Gase can get anything going - it's now a question of whether the Dolphins can pull off an upset surge into the playoffs.   Making it easier is a Rams team once again stuck in mediocrity, though pressure to start Jared Goff has eased with the win over the Jets.  


Patriots over 49ers - Not the lock one assumed before the stunning Seahawks loss.   The Patriots get a Niners team that played surprisingly well against the Cardinals and do so with major questions about responding to hard hitting and ability to cover anyone - with one postgame analysis after the loss to the Seahawks stating the Patriots defense is basically a lunch-pail group that takes coaching but lacks playmakers - questions that usually get answered albeit some more quickly than others; making it more intriguing is the possible absence of Rob Gronkowski for a game due to an injury.   The Niners are in Bears-Browns territory in terms of being memorably worthless.


Seahawks over Eagles - The win over the Patriots has now put all the momentum back in Seattle's hands and they get an Eagles team that's played well but not consistently so.


Redskins over Packers  - With word (via Mike Florio) of a swelling power struggle between Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy - and burgeoning Rumor Control Central belief McCarthy is gone after the year, though who would want to take over this burgeoning drama queen enterprise has yet to sort out - the Packers season is suddenly in serious trouble even with the mediocrity of the division and facing the weakest team in the NFC East in the Redskins.   The Skins, however, host this game and Rodgers' weaknesses as a quarterback are only becoming more glaring - freelancing, not adequately reading defenses and setting up passing attacks accordingly, and of course when he falls behind by 10 or more points, more and more it's an automatic win for his opponent.  


Raiders over Texans in Mexico City - Mexico City hosts the NFL for the first time in years - the last time I remember a game there, Ed Hochuli was the ref and spoke in Spanish.   The Raiders for their part have turned into Speedy Gonzalez and Brock Osweiler has turned into the flustered crow who gets humiliated by Speedy, this despite leading the Texans to 6-3.   The Raiders look like a division lock and appear to be the comeback team of the season.


One note on a team now in its Bye week - the San Diego Chargers now need to start phasing away from Philip Rivers and develop a new quarterback.   Their playoff hopes are now gone and Rivers can no longer deliver when it's needed.


So it goes for Week Eleven.

Week Eight Plays Whack A Pack

Week Eight of the 2016 season saw some things change yet others stay the same.

Before anyone could play Whack A Pack, first the Tennessee Titans hosted the Jacksonville Jaguars; the year before at Tennessee the two teams scored 79 combined points; there was no such shootout this time as Marcus Mariota and the Titans displayed some creative playcalling, and after getting rolled 36-22 the Jaguars thought they'd continue without coaching changes - then something changed and offensive coordinator Greg Olson was fired.   Last year the Detroit Lions fired their offensive coordinator and won six of the next eight games, so this change bears watching.

The Redskins and Bengals squared off in London, the final London game on the schedule this year amid scuttlebutt the league wants to increase the London slate next year despite inability to make any money with the game and ZERO evidence Londoners are really that interested.   The game itself was the most competitive of the London slate that anyone can remember but it ended in a hated tie (27-27) on yet more missed FGAs.   Josh Norman also got exposed by AJ Green.  

This week saw three standout games.  When it appeared the day would see two ties the Raiders pulled off their most spectacular win in memory in a thriller at Tampa Bay, a Superbowl rematch that lived up to the name Super.    The Raiders' reputation for playing dumb football and incurring plethoric penalties as a result came through in a big way with twenty-three fouls, while Derek Carr exploded to over 500 passing yards, the second guy to do it this season after Matt Ryan against the Panthers.   With that the Raiders are 6-2 with a showdown game against the Broncos coming up.

The AFC West is the deepest division in the league as the Kansas City Chiefs made history, beating the Indianapolis Colts for only the third time in the last sixteen meetings, this despite losing Alex Smith to injury and playing Nick Foles.   The slow-motion collapse of the Andrew Luck Colts - and potential collapse of Chuck Pagano's employment there in the first such coach opera since Wayne Watch with the 1990s Detroit Lions and Wayne Fontes - thus continues.

Speaking of Wayne Watch, Fontes' former team suffered another loss to the AFC South and fell to 4-4 while Brock Osweiler salvaged some pride from last week's embarrassment at Denver.  

This is the second of two Games Of The Week.  Aaron Rodgers did it again - when he had to stage a comeback, he failed.    And with the Vikings at present running away with the NFC North the Packers and Lions may be battling for a wildcard spot down the road.   For Matt Ryan the win ended a four-game losing streak to the Packers and offered renewed optimism for the remainder of the season.

Just when Bills Mafia thought it had a chance, it got crushed.   Tyrod Taylor did offer some good play but it was telling EJ Manual seemed to play a little better when he came in during garbage time.   The win is New England's 498th as they close in on becoming the first team originating from the American Football League to reach 500 career wins.   And yet the game wasn't even the big story.....

....and no, the big story wasn't the adult toy thrown onto the field.  The Patriots stole the show the day after by trading Jamie Collins to the Browns for a conditional draft pick.   As usual with Bill Belichick trades the specifics are left to speculation, but Mike Lombardi pointed to one play in particular against the Bills - the second play of the Bills' opening drive - where Collins freelanced his way away from making a play and thus the Bills gained 28 yards; such freelancing fails and because of that invariably gets players demoted and eventually cut from Belichick rosters.

  
The third Game Of The Week.  Any thought that Tony Romo would get back the starting job with the Cowboys has officially ended when Dakota Prescott clawed back against the Eagles and led the winning overtime touchdown drive, further cementing the 2016 Cowboys as a playoff contender.   

Week Six: Brady Bombs While Kaepernick Delivers A Dud

Two weeks ago fourteen NFL teams were 1-3 or 0-4.    Two weeks later we suddenly have signs some of these teams have begun a turnaround from what is almost always the kiss of death for making the playoffs.

The first sign this weekend was going to be a little upside down was San Diego's upset of the Broncos on Thursday Night.   Despite a lack of scoring and some bafflingly conservative playcalling in the fourth quarter, the Chargers took down the Broncos, who no longer look as powerful as advertised, plus the Chargers look like a completely different defense with Joey Bosa now up and running.

A team with little worry about making the playoffs welcomed its Hall Of Famer for his first home game of the year.   Tom Brady responded with another F4 Phantom sortie - Brady delivered the bombs and shot down the Cincinnati Bengals, this amid some cheap hitting by the Bengals, who made a game of it until Andy Dalton got sacked for a safety and the Patriots erupted from there on - continuing the reputation of the Patriots as the machine of the NFL and continuing Cincinnati's reputation for lack of leadership, cheap hitting, lack of discipline, and insistence on winning with athleticism and talent instead of focused, smart play.

Contrast this with the other big story entering Week Six's slate of games - Colin Kaepernick's return to the starting job of the 49ers.   Kaepernick's spark lasted all of one half as the Niners clawed to a 14-13 halftime gap, then the Bills outscored the Niners 31-6.   Kaepernick finished showing his flaws as a quarterback are still there - he completed just thirteen of 29 passes and ran more than competent quarterbacks are supposed to run.    Fitting that T-shirts showing Kaepernick in a gunsight were sold before the game.

The sickest catch of the year so far was Jaelen Strong's catch of Brock Osweiler's bomb, a bomb worthy of Warren Moon and a dagger to the Indianapolis Colts.   The Houston comeback - from down two touchdowns - has suddenly made the AFC South a legitimate division race.

Easily the game of the day was another rip-roaring affair between the Panthers and the Saints, who fought to a 41-38 thriller last season and this time the result was reversed.   Though they fell to 1-5 the Panthers actually showed some reason for salvaging a decent season as they kept coming back and Cam Newton appeared to begin getting some rhythm back.

Marcus Mariota authored the first two-game winning streak of his career and authored the Tennessee Titans to their first win over the Cleveland Browns in the last three meetings.    Cody Kessler returned under center for the Browns and the Browns made a taut game of it despite falling to 0-6.   Kessler has played well overall even without a win, and the Browns may not get much of a record this year but I'm not seeing them going 0-16 now; Kessler has too much upside for that.   For that matter Mariota is also giving the league reason to believe the Titans will build to a playoff power down the road.

In addition to genuine promise from Cody Kessler the Browns are seeing play to be proud of from ex-Raiders ex-quarterback Terrell Pryor.    League fans should want the Browns to turn it around with the genuine talent we're seeing from Kessler and Pryor.

The AFC West just got a lot more curious as the Kansas City Chiefs shot down the rising Raiders and thus began to claw back into the playoff race.   It ended a bad week for Oakland fans with the Las Vegas Stadium now a fait accompli despite no credible evidence of any actual fanbase in Vegas.

Odell Beckham's sideline meltdowns have become the story for the NY Giants but against the slumping Baltimore Ravens Beckham erupted.   It was a taut finish as the Ravens scored around the 2-minute warning only to see Eli Manning explode with some 1:20 to go.    Combined with the Redskins' win over the Eagles the win puts the Giants back into the NFC East conversation.

But staying well out front in the NFC East is the Cowboys, whose rookie class of Dakota Prescott and Zeke Elliott is leading the Pokes on a rampage reminiscent of the glory days of Troy, Emmitt, Irvin, etc.   The Cowboys also continued the career trend for Aaron Rodgers, once again in over his head when he has to lead a comeback, perhaps best illustrated by his late-game fumble on 2nd and 6 before the follow-up fumble that effectively ended the game.  

Trouble in Pittsburgh?   One of my sources indicates a budding feud within the team involving coach Mike Tomlin; nobody did themselves well in getting humiliated by the struggling Dolphins.

Giving nightmares to the Steelers was Jay Ajayi, whose 204 yards further exposed the Steelers to be a dubious challenger.  

The Detroit Lions are making a case they're becoming a genuine challenger in a terrific game with the Rams, who've faltered after their early-season winning streak.    Matthew Stafford has struggled to string together consistent winning play over the years but Jim Caldwell, given up for dead by a lot of railbirds before the season, may be what Stafford has needed to go along with his talent.   Case Keenum meanwhile has also put together some encouraging play.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have quietly begun stringing together wins and erasing a two-touchdown gap in the fourth quarter at Chicago showed there's some fight in this squad.   

Oddly unnoticed have been the Seattle Seahawks, but they've surged ahead in the NFC West by edging a surging Falcons squad.   The Seahawks benefitted from a questionable non-call on Richard Sherman on Atlanta's last-gasp bomb.



So what does it all mean?   The Patriots, the Vikings, and - perhaps - the Cowboys and Seahawks appear to be the only sure thing in this season.   Six teams that were 1-3 won Thursday or Sunday and I suspect a number of formerly 1-3 teams will surprise people by December.

NFL Where Are We Going Week Six

The New England Patriots tell us where they're going in Week Six and with Week Five wrapping up, we look ahead to Week Six.


Broncos over Chargers - The Broncos got exposed by the Falcons and Paxton Lynch showed a lot less as a quarterback than Trevor Siemian, rumored to be the starter. Regardless of which one starts for the Broncos they face a Chargers team that cannot finish any game, is minus-one in turnover differential, and is 47-54 this decade entering this game. Philip Rivers' volume stats are good, but he's not getting it done and really hasn't as shown in the 47-54 record.



Jaguars over Bears -  While Brian Hoyer has shown more and more improvement compared to Jay Cutler, the Bears continue to struggle and they get a Jaguars team that finally got some momentum entering their Bye week.   Hoyer's overall quality of play does offer reason for hope, but he has to start winning.

Titans over Browns -  The Browns have won the last two meetings with the Titans (and five of the last eight dating to the last year of the old AFC Central) including 2014's stunning comeback win from down 28-3 after Jake Locker, who'd been head-hunted by the Browns, got knocked out after whacking his throwing hand on a player's helmet.  Ironically present Browns quarterback Charlie Whitehurst took over from there and stormed the Titans to that 28-3 lead - and failed to stop the bleeding.   Now Whitehurst may have to face his old team that clawed to a needed win at Miami and is showing some improvement, this as the Browns at 0-5 are now staring at 0-16.



Steelers over Dolphins  -  The Steelers have it going all around right now, and the Dolphins don't have anything going.


Lions over Rams  -  The Lions pulled off the win over a good opponent last week and now host the Rams, reeling from an ugly loss to Rex Ryan's Bills.   Case Keenum's promising beginning has taken a turn for the worse when he threw two picks last week and now has five picks to just four touchdowns this season, though this matchup might favor him given he beat the Lions last season.


NY Giants over Ravens - The Ravens were the weakest 3-0 team seen in awhile and it showed with losses the last two weeks, enough that Marc Trestman was unceremoniously dumped as offensive coordinator.   Marty "I'll take the wind" Mornhinweg takes over as offensive coordinator; his career as such has been uneven at best, though his teams (especially when he was with the Eagles) have a good record against a Giants team that looks mediocre at best.


Panthers over Saints - Carolina's struggle against the Bucs shows how much of a mess the Panthers are, Cam Newton or Derek Anderson, but even with that the Saints are their own mess despite good offensive numbers.   They did get it done in a shootout at San Diego.


Eagles over Redskins - The Eagles despite the setback at Detroit remain in the top-3 in points and points allowed while the Redskins are stuck in the middle third in both.   The Skins do have momentum on their side having won three straight and are plus-3 in turnover differential, though the Eagles are better at plus-5.


Patriots over Bengals - The rallying cry of 2014 gets renewal as the Patriots have Tom Brady back and face a Bengals team that is just 2-3 (though plus-2 in turnover differential) and only 24th in scoring.   The embarrassment at Dallas showcased the Bengals are hitting another rut that has pockmarked Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton's careers.


Bills over 49ers -  Maybe we better start believing in the Bills after three straight wins, and they get a reeling 49ers squad that may make the mistake of putting the worthless Colin Kaepernick back under center, this after he basically blew off preseason preparation.   Believe it or not the Bills are actually decent in offense (15th in points) and Tyrod Taylor has been effective at quarterback with six touchdowns and just two INTs, though his yards per throw (6.7) leaves something to be desired.


Raiders over Chiefs - The Raiders have surged to 4-1 and Derek Carr seems to be getting ever better, presently at 11 touchdowns to just two INTs.   And lost in the shuffle is the Raiders run game is at a very healthy Five yards per carry.   The odd stat is they've been outgained in the air in yards and touchdowns.   The Raiders host a Chiefs team that's again off to a slow start;  though the Chiefs are plus-3 in turnover differential this number is skewed by the disaster that was the NY Jets.   The Chiefs are 2-2 and aren't scoring a whole lot (just 50 points the last three games).


Cowboys over Packers - Dakota Prescott and company have surged to a 4-1 start and take on a Packers team that's only 12th in points and points allowed (Dallas is 9th in scoring and 8th in points allowed) and has been mildly atrocious against passing attacks (1,098 yards at 6.9 yards per throw and seven touchdowns allowed; the differential between Packers passing yards and yards allowed is over 250 yards); the Packers are also minus-one in turnover differential.   The old saw about the Packers - they can frontrun like crazy and can't stage a comeback when they need one - remains true as they've outlasted the teams they've beaten rather than put them away.   The Cowboys for their part aren't great shakes against passing attacks either (1,303 yards, 6.6 yards per throw, nine touchdowns allowed) and are minus-two in turnover differential; their running game has accounted for eleven scores but goes against a Packers team allowing just two yards per attempt, so this game should be a taut one.


Falcons over Seahawks - having shot down both Superbowl teams - the first team to do that in over 30 years - the Falcons stay out west and head to Seattle's king of a semi-dome.    The Falcons bullied Denver's vaunted defense but take on a Seahawks defense that's noticeably better - third in points allowed, just 5.4 yards per throw allowed, and just one touchdown allowed.    The big gap is in points scored as the Seahawks are only 21st; their passing game is hitting seven yards per throw but the Seahawks are stuck on the ground at just 3.3 yards per rushing attempt.   The Falcons remains atop the league in points and their 25th ranking in points allowed is a little deceiving, as they're winning despite that, in at least part because they are plus-three in turnover differential.


Colts over Texans - Suddenly the Houston Texans don't look like a playoff team anymore.   The Colts rallied to their second win of the season and the Texans were dismal at Minnesota and have looked out of sorts since getting humiliated in Foxboro.   Start with a disturbing turnover differential - minus-four.  More and more Brock Osweiler looks not like a future star but a future washout, with sluggish throwing motion, only five net yards per throw, 58% completion, and more INTs (seven) than touchdowns (six).    Nor has Bill O'Brien lived up to the promise shown as Penn State's coach after the disasterous end of Joe Paterno's regime. 


Cardinals over NY Jets - In the old days a down-in-the-dumps team could regain some confidence when the NY Jets came up on the schedule.   The Cardinals are top-11 in points and points allowed but only 2-3 thanks to some poor play by Carson Palmer and his three losses.   Drew Stanton is no solution down the road but so far he's kept it in a positive direction.    He and the Cards play host to the NY Jets, who have imploded - hilariously illustrated in their plus-NINE turnover differential, this despite not turning over the ball once at Pittsburgh.   The once-vaunted pass defense of the Jets has disintegrated with Darrelle Revis' career - twelve scores in the air, 8.2 net yards per throw allowed.   Meanwhile Ryan Fitzpatrick has played down to his quarterbacking competence with ten picks and just five touchdowns - no wonder Rumor Control Central now has it that the Jets are working on a package to trade to Dallas for Tony Romo.  


And so we're onto Cincinnati, Coach.

NFL Week Three Heightens Expectations

All of Week 2's touchdowns as we count down to Week 3

The NFL enters Week Three amid some genuine shockers but also amid a surprising - and surprisingly sharp - drop in TV ratings; explanations for why have varied between boycotting of Colin Kaepernick, boycotting of Roger Goodell, the absence of Tom Brady, the retirement of Peyton Manning.   Certainly there is likely some element of all involved.   A correction was probably overdue so right now one should not be excessively worried. 

Certainly it's not for lack of competitive games; the first two weeks have been strikingly well-played and competitive, and expectations have thus been heightened for Week Three.   Picks for the week -





Patriots over Texans -  Jacoby Brissett has to start with the out-of-left-field shoulder injury to Jimmy Garappolo and his unplanned foray into the NFL against the Dolphins showed his rawness but also showed there is legitimate ability there.   He will certainly have better preparation knowing he's going onto the field so leading more than two scoring drives should be a given, though one should keep an eye on Stephen Gostkowski after his stunning gag of a makeable late FGA.   They face a Houston team that's clearly on its way to a strong season with Brock Osweiler, a guy clearly not intimidated by facing the Patriots, but with a defensive front led by JJ Watt that isn't any better than the Cardinals and Dolphins fronts the Patriots O-line has manhandled already, plus Watt has been decidedly quiet against the Patriots in the past, notably last season in his own house.  


Cardinals over Bills - The Cardinals showed they mean business by laying 40 on the Bucs and they go to New Era Stadium for a Bills opponent that fired their offensive coordinator but that put up 31 points last time out. The Ryan brothers are buffoons, though, so they will find a way to lose.


Panthers over Vikings - The Vikings are onto something this year after stunning the Packers, but they go to a Panthers team that was stewing over the lost opportunity at Denver and responded by breaking out of a competitive game against the Niners and turning it into a massacre. A key matchup to keep an eye on is Sam Bradford to Stefon Diggs, who exploded against the Packers.     


Broncos over Bengals - This one I think will be tighter than some may expect. Clearly there is no collapse for the Broncos as Trevor Siemian has already proven doubters wrong with poised play, but this is his first road trip and he goes to a Bengals team hitting its home opener. The Bengals got embarrassed last week at Pittsburgh and have the talent to fight back given the opponent, the defending champs, and one recalls the last time the Broncos visited Cincinnati. The matchup to watch is AJ Green vs Aqib Talib.


Lions over Packers - This is an upset pick for me; both teams are 1-1 and both are coming off losses. The Lions, though, face a Packers team that has now lost four of its last five division meetings and hasn't won a home game against the division since 2014. The Packers also have signs of locker room dissension with one of Aaron Rodgers' O-linemen calling him out publically after the loss at Minnesota. Rodgers' inability to lead a comeback when he has to erase a gap of at least two scores showed up again at Minnesota.   


Ravens over Jaguars - Suddenly the Baltimore Ravens are stringing together wins again after a head-shaking 2015, while the Jaguars still have not taken that next step, and looked awful at San Diego last week.  


Dolphins over Browns - Only the Browns.   They go to a shellshocked Dolphins team hitting its home opener with a revamped Joe Robbie Stadium - now sporting sponsorship from Hard Rock - and with a quarterback in Ryan Tannehill playing his way out of the NFL.   But the Browns have bigger problems - they fell apart against the hated Ravens and such collapses usually bode ill for the season. 


NY Giants over Redskins - They didn't do it against the Cowboys and now the Redskins face a 2-0 Giants squad that's eking out grinders of wins.  

Andre Johnson's game-winner at Detroit

Titans over Raiders - This could be the highest-scoring game on this week's slate as Marcos Mariota and Derek Carr lit it up in their preseason matchup and their teams are 1-1; Carr has exploded the Raiders to 63 points scored while Mariota staged a memorable comeback from down two scores to beat the Lions; his touchdown to Andre Johnson was an absolute thing of beauty.   Anyone for a Titans-Raiders playoff meet?


Seahawks over Forty-Niners -  The Seahawks are struggling out of the gate having lost on the road again to the Rams, and they face a Niners squad that Blaine Gabbert has made into a team that's not the joke their backup quarterback has become.   The Seahawks did win their home opener and the Niners come back from the East Coast and Russell Wilson is the kind of quarterback who can start turning things around fast.


Buccaneers over Rams - Tampa Bay's obliteration by the Cardinals was the punch in the face that should motivate them to lash it out against a Rams team traveling from the West Coast to the East and which has shown zero offense.  


Chargers over Colts - There is an ominous sign for the Colts. The opinion has been expressed that the Colts made a fatal mistake signing Chuck Pagano instead of Bruce Arians, but the real warning sign is Andrew Luck may have plateaued in 2012-13 and simply can never be the transcendent quarterback his talent promised he'd be. He lit up the scoreboard at home against the Lions and still lost, then struggled against a Broncos team he'd dominated. San Diego has won six of the last seven meetings with the Colts, and Philip Rivers is 1-0 against Andrew Luck so far.


Chiefs over NY Jets - The Chiefs are smarting after losing to the Houston Texans, and they face a high-scoring NY Jets team that's looking like a team going for the playoffs.   I doubt Andy Reid will let the loss in Houston carry over to this meeting with the Jets, a team Reid has yet to lose to. 


Eagles over Steelers - The Steelers have a potent offense and a proven championship quarterback, but in the Eagles they face a team that's well ahead of expectations and has a quarterback in Carson Wentz who's looking like the real deal.


Cowboys over Bears - Why John Fox keeps Jay Cutler remains baffling as he is a failure, as Dak Prescott steadily proves himself to be one to watch down the road. 


Saints over Falcons - Neither team has proven they're up to a playoff bid, and one should start to be concerned that Drew Brees is no longer the elite competitor.   Matt Ryan certainly is not an elite anything even with a strong win at Oakland.  


So we await Week Three.