Wednesday, July 23, 2014
Tuesday, July 22, 2014
Monday, July 21, 2014
Sunday, July 20, 2014
Wednesday, July 16, 2014
Monday, July 14, 2014
NASCAR Enters The Bye
It's the All Star Break - and baseball has something going on this week, too.
NASCAR's mid-July bye week comes following the heat of New Hampshire, this on top of the heat of Daytona, and oddly enough the last two weeks and the few weeks before that have made for a curious shift in the series. Before the Brickyard beckons, some takes on the season so far and the last several weeks in particular -
The New Hampshire Weekend - The weekend itself was a bang-up weekend starting with the Sunoco 100 for the Modified Tour. The draft kicked in yet again and the battle for the lead was amazing down to the finish. It was fitting that after Richard Petty's #43 won the Firecracker 400 Mike Curb's Modified driven by Bobby Santos stormed to the New Hamsphire Modified win.
And the Cup race, while never able to match the Mods in competitive ferocity, nonetheless saw a striking level of passing up front and some dicey maneuvers on restarts. It wasn't as wild as Pocono has seen, but it was close.
Suddenly Ford Has Taken Over - Fords have won the last four races, beginning at Sears Point. At New Hampshire the Chevys never looked in particular contention while the Toyotas produced some muscle that's been missing much of the season, and with the season taking a decided turn for the worse for Toyota as the Brickyard is a place Toyota hasn't won at nor shown much muscle at.
It's The Full Keselowski Experience - We certainly didn't see this coming earlier in the year when it appeared Keselowski was losing his mind. Now he's won two of the last three races to go with March's Vegas win and looks to have recaptured status as top dog at Penske Racing. Contrast this with Joey Logano; Logano has four top ten finishes since winning the Richmond 400 and two 40th place finishes. Naturally he bitched about Morgan Shepherd in the New Hampshire wreck, but this is another case of getting what one deserves.
It's Not The Hendrick Experience - Jimmie Johnson now has consecutive 42nds on his results card and seven finishes below 18th so far. In contrast Old Man Gordon has put together a good run of finishes before running out of gas at New Hampshire. Dale Junior has also strung together a good run of finishes the last seven weeks. Surprisingly Kasey Kahne hasn't done that badly despite being MIA much of the time.
Roush Keeps Striking Out - Carl Edwards has a paltry one top ten since the 600 - the Sears Point win; he also hasn't led a lap since Sears Point. The issue of engineers has been a talking point sorts lately, and it isn't getting better with Edwards reportedly on the way out, Greg Biffle not producing - just one top ten since the Winston 500 - and Ricky Stenhouse proving he's a drafting bust.
Almirola Crashes To Earth - Starting last after a crash in practice, Aric Almirola never got above 21st and finished 23rd, this after a superb Kentucky effort that ended in a crash and then the Daytona win. Nonetheless the #43 has shown real muscle all season.
Stewart-Haas Takes A Hit - Kevin Harvick is the one screwed most by the points system, having won twice and led nearly 900 laps - only Johnson has led more so far - yet is 13th in points. Having said this, the last seven weeks have been a blow, with just two top tens and three finishes 20th or worse. And his teammates aren't doing any better - Stewart-Haas has combined for ten top tens among all four cars since the Winston 500. Tony Stewart's seventh was something of a surprise finish, only his second top-ten in the last eleven races.
RCR Trundles Along - Can someone explain how Mister MIA Ryan Newman is seventh in points? I grant he's posted three top-10s in the last seven races, but overall he and the RCR gang have simply been abysmal all season. Not that anyone noticed, but Austin Dillon got outclassed by Kyle Larson again.
Ganassi Keeps On Keeping On - Larson's New Hampshire finish overshadowed a respectable effort by Jamie McMurray.
The sport thus has some items to chew on during its bye week.
NASCAR's mid-July bye week comes following the heat of New Hampshire, this on top of the heat of Daytona, and oddly enough the last two weeks and the few weeks before that have made for a curious shift in the series. Before the Brickyard beckons, some takes on the season so far and the last several weeks in particular -
The New Hampshire Weekend - The weekend itself was a bang-up weekend starting with the Sunoco 100 for the Modified Tour. The draft kicked in yet again and the battle for the lead was amazing down to the finish. It was fitting that after Richard Petty's #43 won the Firecracker 400 Mike Curb's Modified driven by Bobby Santos stormed to the New Hamsphire Modified win.
And the Cup race, while never able to match the Mods in competitive ferocity, nonetheless saw a striking level of passing up front and some dicey maneuvers on restarts. It wasn't as wild as Pocono has seen, but it was close.
Suddenly Ford Has Taken Over - Fords have won the last four races, beginning at Sears Point. At New Hampshire the Chevys never looked in particular contention while the Toyotas produced some muscle that's been missing much of the season, and with the season taking a decided turn for the worse for Toyota as the Brickyard is a place Toyota hasn't won at nor shown much muscle at.
It's The Full Keselowski Experience - We certainly didn't see this coming earlier in the year when it appeared Keselowski was losing his mind. Now he's won two of the last three races to go with March's Vegas win and looks to have recaptured status as top dog at Penske Racing. Contrast this with Joey Logano; Logano has four top ten finishes since winning the Richmond 400 and two 40th place finishes. Naturally he bitched about Morgan Shepherd in the New Hampshire wreck, but this is another case of getting what one deserves.
It's Not The Hendrick Experience - Jimmie Johnson now has consecutive 42nds on his results card and seven finishes below 18th so far. In contrast Old Man Gordon has put together a good run of finishes before running out of gas at New Hampshire. Dale Junior has also strung together a good run of finishes the last seven weeks. Surprisingly Kasey Kahne hasn't done that badly despite being MIA much of the time.
Roush Keeps Striking Out - Carl Edwards has a paltry one top ten since the 600 - the Sears Point win; he also hasn't led a lap since Sears Point. The issue of engineers has been a talking point sorts lately, and it isn't getting better with Edwards reportedly on the way out, Greg Biffle not producing - just one top ten since the Winston 500 - and Ricky Stenhouse proving he's a drafting bust.
Almirola Crashes To Earth - Starting last after a crash in practice, Aric Almirola never got above 21st and finished 23rd, this after a superb Kentucky effort that ended in a crash and then the Daytona win. Nonetheless the #43 has shown real muscle all season.
Stewart-Haas Takes A Hit - Kevin Harvick is the one screwed most by the points system, having won twice and led nearly 900 laps - only Johnson has led more so far - yet is 13th in points. Having said this, the last seven weeks have been a blow, with just two top tens and three finishes 20th or worse. And his teammates aren't doing any better - Stewart-Haas has combined for ten top tens among all four cars since the Winston 500. Tony Stewart's seventh was something of a surprise finish, only his second top-ten in the last eleven races.
RCR Trundles Along - Can someone explain how Mister MIA Ryan Newman is seventh in points? I grant he's posted three top-10s in the last seven races, but overall he and the RCR gang have simply been abysmal all season. Not that anyone noticed, but Austin Dillon got outclassed by Kyle Larson again.
Ganassi Keeps On Keeping On - Larson's New Hampshire finish overshadowed a respectable effort by Jamie McMurray.
The sport thus has some items to chew on during its bye week.
Bobby Santos Wins Sunoco 100 Whelen Modified Tour Race
A good write-up on Bobby Santos' wild win in the Mod Tour 100 at New Hampshire.
We once again witnessed - when the draft means more than handling, passing results.
We once again witnessed - when the draft means more than handling, passing results.
Wednesday, July 09, 2014
Monday, July 07, 2014
Sizing Up Brian France Entering The Second Half
NOTE: This has been updated since initial publication.
With the Firecracker 400's completion the Winston Cup season enters the second half in earnest, and we get more verbiage from Brian France as he pats himself on the back amid his discussion about "robust discussion" about the 2015 schedule. Whenever Brian France speaks he tends to put his foot in his mouth to at least a minor extent, and he does it again when he pats himself on the back that points racing has ostensibly been reduced with his new format where winning one race in effect locks a driver into the Chase.
Looking at the overall racing doesn't show any appreciable increase in competitive intensity. Certainly there have been good competitive spots - apart from the plate races the season has seen unusually good racing at Fontana, Bristol, Martinsville, and to a lesser extent Kentucky. But it also saw Dale Junior's admission at Talladega that he backed off trying to win because he already had a win and thus had no incentive to fight harder.
Yes, it bears repeating that the issue of competition is not solely a points issue; that it a myriad of issues between the cars being too fast, handling being too important instead of the draft (see the Kansas Truck 200 back in May for the best non-plate race example where the opposite was the case), and the unraceability of radial tires. And it bears remembering that even in NASCAR's competitive apex era of 1971-84 more races didn't produce as much passing than did; it's to be expected in any endeavor to have bad days as well as good.
Yet for all that, one should not let France off the hook, for the points racing ethos still exists. That the win by itself is not incentivized, and that most laps led remains grossly under-incentivized, remains a blind spot for the sanctioning body.
Daytona and Talladega both saw over 40 lead changes; it is manifestly false that the sport can't once again get over 50 there and at Pocono, Michigan, Charlotte, Indianapolis, Kansas, Kentucky, etc.
*****
There is also the seemingly unending issue of NASCAR's over-control of the racing, shown again in the Firecracker 250 finish and the controversy over NASCAR's no-push-drafting rule. The foolishness of NASCAR was shown for all yet again as it tried to justify having a rule that gives the officiating tower a control of the racing it has no right to have. Kasey Kahne and Ryan Sieg push-drafted to the win as did others, and only James Buescher got penalized for it.
It bears repeating how push-drafting had evolved by 2013 - shown in the Truck 250 at Talladega - away from the bizarre look of 2011 back toward conventional pack racing, and the net positives of increased passing, especially for smaller teams able to fight the big boys straight up, outweigh negatives. And it is just part of the problem of the officiating tower being given more control when NASCAR needs to be taking such control away and giving it back to the racers, whether it's closing pit road when the yellow flies, dictating how fast cars can enter and exit the pits (before NASCAR started closing pit road in March 1989 there was no pit safety issue; that happened AFTER NASCAR began closing pit road), and limiting what parts of the asphalt drivers can pass on (see Junior's 2003 Talladega win and Tony Stewart's 2008 non-win).
Brian France needs to give NASCAR a major philosophical change - the belief that the sanctioning body has to meddle has to go. Sensible rules are always needed; meddling isn't a sensible rule
*****
Brian France wants more team owners in the sport, and "is continuing to look at ways to reduce costs for teams." It does beg the question of why he's still allowing the likes of Rick Hendrick and Jack Roush not only to field three or four racecars but to control the engine and chassis supply of almost everyone else. And it is a question the manufacturers need to be asked - isn't it time to help other teams build their own engine shops and thus build their own engines?
As for manufacturers, there remains a need for explanation of why Dodge quit the sport and why Honda so far has not entered it. Richard Petty's Daytona win is an unrealized boon that would have benefitted Dodge - and still can if/when Dodge returns to the sport.
Related to such issues remains NASCAR's exclusivity deals, notably its deal with Goodyear; such deals have either taken away potential team sponsors or outright shut out certain companies from participating in the sport. No one can credibly claim Goodyear exclusivity has made the sport better, or that Firestone and Hoosier can't help the sport by helping more teams.
And the wildcard thrown into the mix is the new Race Team Alliance, a business alliance involving Hendrick, Roush, Richard Childress Racing, Petty, Ganassi-SABCO, Michael Waltrip Racing, Joe Gibbs, Stewart-Haas, and and Penske. The stated purpose is to pool ideas on cost-saving in relation to travel and to parts acquisition, with the idea of getting a hotel partner for raceteams being floated. Some have compared this to the now-defunct Formula One Constructors Association, an alliance of F1 teams that worked together in negotiations with the FIA, the F1 series' governing body. Rob Kaufmann, the co-founder of Michael Waltrip's team, is head of the group.
It will be interesting to see where this goes, and if it brings about something close to the spending controls - aka salary cap - that racing has long needed.
*****
France stated he won't limit Cup driver participation in lower series, and thus remains blind to how Cup drivers have bled the Busch Series dry - to where only fifteen drivers ran the full schedule in 2013 and only seventeen have run the full schedule in 2014. The Truck Series is in the same boat even though Cup drivers for the most part don't race there - only seventeen drivers have run all the races, and while few Cup drivers race in the series Kyle Busch has run five times with five wins, versus just two other drivers winning even once in eight races entering July.
While France hinted a new sponsor for the Busch Series is pretty much around the corner, the fact basically no one can make any money there or in the Trucks remains a black spot for him. Would it really hurt him if he switched some of the multi-billion dollar TV money into the purses in support races?
*****
There was the usual talk about Iowa Speedway, and curiously missing seemed to be discussion of the validity of hosting non-points races such as the All Star Race. Such events have outlived their usefulness as evidenced again in Charlotte's All Star Race.
There was also talk about attendance declines, with Dover singled out for some criticism. Overlooked is that Dover is still drawing quality crowds; they look smaller because the track overbuilt the way Michigan and Rockingham did. Dover does warrant criticism in that it has proven two things -
* Concrete is worthless as a racing surface, as Dover has struggled to produce competitive racing for the twenty years it has run concrete.
* Shorter is not better. Dover cut to 400 miles after 1996 because NASCAR raised the sanction fee for a 500-mile race - and Dover's 400s are nowhere close to its 500s in competitive depth. If anything other tracks in addition to Dover need to go to 450 miles or back to the full 500.
So Brian France has thus spoken again, and the 2014 season has gotten more enjoyable of recent, in spite of him.
With the Firecracker 400's completion the Winston Cup season enters the second half in earnest, and we get more verbiage from Brian France as he pats himself on the back amid his discussion about "robust discussion" about the 2015 schedule. Whenever Brian France speaks he tends to put his foot in his mouth to at least a minor extent, and he does it again when he pats himself on the back that points racing has ostensibly been reduced with his new format where winning one race in effect locks a driver into the Chase.
Looking at the overall racing doesn't show any appreciable increase in competitive intensity. Certainly there have been good competitive spots - apart from the plate races the season has seen unusually good racing at Fontana, Bristol, Martinsville, and to a lesser extent Kentucky. But it also saw Dale Junior's admission at Talladega that he backed off trying to win because he already had a win and thus had no incentive to fight harder.
Yes, it bears repeating that the issue of competition is not solely a points issue; that it a myriad of issues between the cars being too fast, handling being too important instead of the draft (see the Kansas Truck 200 back in May for the best non-plate race example where the opposite was the case), and the unraceability of radial tires. And it bears remembering that even in NASCAR's competitive apex era of 1971-84 more races didn't produce as much passing than did; it's to be expected in any endeavor to have bad days as well as good.
Yet for all that, one should not let France off the hook, for the points racing ethos still exists. That the win by itself is not incentivized, and that most laps led remains grossly under-incentivized, remains a blind spot for the sanctioning body.
Daytona and Talladega both saw over 40 lead changes; it is manifestly false that the sport can't once again get over 50 there and at Pocono, Michigan, Charlotte, Indianapolis, Kansas, Kentucky, etc.
*****
There is also the seemingly unending issue of NASCAR's over-control of the racing, shown again in the Firecracker 250 finish and the controversy over NASCAR's no-push-drafting rule. The foolishness of NASCAR was shown for all yet again as it tried to justify having a rule that gives the officiating tower a control of the racing it has no right to have. Kasey Kahne and Ryan Sieg push-drafted to the win as did others, and only James Buescher got penalized for it.
It bears repeating how push-drafting had evolved by 2013 - shown in the Truck 250 at Talladega - away from the bizarre look of 2011 back toward conventional pack racing, and the net positives of increased passing, especially for smaller teams able to fight the big boys straight up, outweigh negatives. And it is just part of the problem of the officiating tower being given more control when NASCAR needs to be taking such control away and giving it back to the racers, whether it's closing pit road when the yellow flies, dictating how fast cars can enter and exit the pits (before NASCAR started closing pit road in March 1989 there was no pit safety issue; that happened AFTER NASCAR began closing pit road), and limiting what parts of the asphalt drivers can pass on (see Junior's 2003 Talladega win and Tony Stewart's 2008 non-win).
Brian France needs to give NASCAR a major philosophical change - the belief that the sanctioning body has to meddle has to go. Sensible rules are always needed; meddling isn't a sensible rule
*****
Brian France wants more team owners in the sport, and "is continuing to look at ways to reduce costs for teams." It does beg the question of why he's still allowing the likes of Rick Hendrick and Jack Roush not only to field three or four racecars but to control the engine and chassis supply of almost everyone else. And it is a question the manufacturers need to be asked - isn't it time to help other teams build their own engine shops and thus build their own engines?
As for manufacturers, there remains a need for explanation of why Dodge quit the sport and why Honda so far has not entered it. Richard Petty's Daytona win is an unrealized boon that would have benefitted Dodge - and still can if/when Dodge returns to the sport.
Related to such issues remains NASCAR's exclusivity deals, notably its deal with Goodyear; such deals have either taken away potential team sponsors or outright shut out certain companies from participating in the sport. No one can credibly claim Goodyear exclusivity has made the sport better, or that Firestone and Hoosier can't help the sport by helping more teams.
And the wildcard thrown into the mix is the new Race Team Alliance, a business alliance involving Hendrick, Roush, Richard Childress Racing, Petty, Ganassi-SABCO, Michael Waltrip Racing, Joe Gibbs, Stewart-Haas, and and Penske. The stated purpose is to pool ideas on cost-saving in relation to travel and to parts acquisition, with the idea of getting a hotel partner for raceteams being floated. Some have compared this to the now-defunct Formula One Constructors Association, an alliance of F1 teams that worked together in negotiations with the FIA, the F1 series' governing body. Rob Kaufmann, the co-founder of Michael Waltrip's team, is head of the group.
It will be interesting to see where this goes, and if it brings about something close to the spending controls - aka salary cap - that racing has long needed.
*****
France stated he won't limit Cup driver participation in lower series, and thus remains blind to how Cup drivers have bled the Busch Series dry - to where only fifteen drivers ran the full schedule in 2013 and only seventeen have run the full schedule in 2014. The Truck Series is in the same boat even though Cup drivers for the most part don't race there - only seventeen drivers have run all the races, and while few Cup drivers race in the series Kyle Busch has run five times with five wins, versus just two other drivers winning even once in eight races entering July.
While France hinted a new sponsor for the Busch Series is pretty much around the corner, the fact basically no one can make any money there or in the Trucks remains a black spot for him. Would it really hurt him if he switched some of the multi-billion dollar TV money into the purses in support races?
*****
There was the usual talk about Iowa Speedway, and curiously missing seemed to be discussion of the validity of hosting non-points races such as the All Star Race. Such events have outlived their usefulness as evidenced again in Charlotte's All Star Race.
There was also talk about attendance declines, with Dover singled out for some criticism. Overlooked is that Dover is still drawing quality crowds; they look smaller because the track overbuilt the way Michigan and Rockingham did. Dover does warrant criticism in that it has proven two things -
* Concrete is worthless as a racing surface, as Dover has struggled to produce competitive racing for the twenty years it has run concrete.
* Shorter is not better. Dover cut to 400 miles after 1996 because NASCAR raised the sanction fee for a 500-mile race - and Dover's 400s are nowhere close to its 500s in competitive depth. If anything other tracks in addition to Dover need to go to 450 miles or back to the full 500.
So Brian France has thus spoken again, and the 2014 season has gotten more enjoyable of recent, in spite of him.
Sunday, July 06, 2014
Daytona: Welcome Home, Richard
There are many reasons why the heart grows fonder. In racing the passage of time has that effect perhaps like no other sport. Seeing Richard Petty's #43 return to victory at Daytona International Speedway, regardless of the rainy circumstances, showcases what he means to racing, because where Daytona has showcased the excellence of David Pearson, Cale Yarborough, Bobby Allison, Dale Jarrett, Sterling Marlin, and others and they have more than proven themselves as genuine competition heroes, Petty's absence from winning was still wrong.
Richard did what others have not done - made an entire sport his showcase and made it a positive one. His rivals in Pearson, Cale, the Allisons, Buddy Baker, Isaac, Benny Parsons, AJ Foyt (his equal and then some in Indycar racing), Fred Lorenzen, and others all need no justification as Hall Of Fame racers and people who made racing excellence for all involved; indeed together they grew the sport at least as much as the Frances and others involved in its gestation such as the Vogts, Joe Littlejohn, John Holman and Ralph Moody, the Wood Brothers, the Ranier family (Lorin still wields influence on Jamie McMurray's Chevrolet and that car runs strong as a result), Clay Earles, the Mattiolis, and more than can be remebered off-hand here.
Yet Richard Petty was able to go an extra mile in integrating with all involved as well as going the extra mile to win. He combined guile with aggressiveness and at his best he was amazing to watch wheeling that blue and red Dodge through traffic for the lead.
For all of its faults, racing offers enormously in terms of competitive virtue, and the 2014 Firecracker 400 offered some excellent racing as the battle for the lead was a true battle. The criticism that racefans want to see the wrecks got examples for certain, notably Kyle Busch's set-to with nineteen others near what was the race's end. The battle between Kurt Busch and Petty's driver Aric Almirola was as good a bout of racing as the sport has seen in 2014; even more impressive has been Almirola's surge after a patch of poor results that was at times ugly. He resurrected himself at Kentucky until a mid-race melee swept him up, and now he's taken the next step.
Of course there's the next step beyond that - winning again, and again. Pocono has a Petty history as do Michigan, Atlanta, Martinsville, Charlotte, and Talladega. Almirola now has to take that next step, but now we can see he has that ability. And now we can say - for one week anyway - racing order has been restored.
Welcome home, Richard.
Richard did what others have not done - made an entire sport his showcase and made it a positive one. His rivals in Pearson, Cale, the Allisons, Buddy Baker, Isaac, Benny Parsons, AJ Foyt (his equal and then some in Indycar racing), Fred Lorenzen, and others all need no justification as Hall Of Fame racers and people who made racing excellence for all involved; indeed together they grew the sport at least as much as the Frances and others involved in its gestation such as the Vogts, Joe Littlejohn, John Holman and Ralph Moody, the Wood Brothers, the Ranier family (Lorin still wields influence on Jamie McMurray's Chevrolet and that car runs strong as a result), Clay Earles, the Mattiolis, and more than can be remebered off-hand here.
Yet Richard Petty was able to go an extra mile in integrating with all involved as well as going the extra mile to win. He combined guile with aggressiveness and at his best he was amazing to watch wheeling that blue and red Dodge through traffic for the lead.
For all of its faults, racing offers enormously in terms of competitive virtue, and the 2014 Firecracker 400 offered some excellent racing as the battle for the lead was a true battle. The criticism that racefans want to see the wrecks got examples for certain, notably Kyle Busch's set-to with nineteen others near what was the race's end. The battle between Kurt Busch and Petty's driver Aric Almirola was as good a bout of racing as the sport has seen in 2014; even more impressive has been Almirola's surge after a patch of poor results that was at times ugly. He resurrected himself at Kentucky until a mid-race melee swept him up, and now he's taken the next step.
Of course there's the next step beyond that - winning again, and again. Pocono has a Petty history as do Michigan, Atlanta, Martinsville, Charlotte, and Talladega. Almirola now has to take that next step, but now we can see he has that ability. And now we can say - for one week anyway - racing order has been restored.
Welcome home, Richard.
Saturday, July 05, 2014
Pocono And Racing Attendance Problems
Pocono may not run Indycars after 2014 and the issue of declining attendances at racing (and other sports) remains a sharp one.
Tuesday, July 01, 2014
The Good News from Afghanistan
The good news from Afghanistan is that it is a country that can become a genuine civilized state. The US made that possible - Obama can throw that away.
Monday, June 30, 2014
The Real Iraq Then
The abandonment of Iraq by Obama is destroying what was emerging as an international success story, shown by how Iraq actually was in 2006, the ostensible dark days before the Surge finished off the first wave of Islamo-Arab attack to destroy post-Saddam Iraq.
Sunday, June 29, 2014
Friday, June 27, 2014
The Antiwar Myth About Iraq Continued
Antiwar mythology about Iraq continues as the Lamestream Media refuses to get it right.
Worth noting is how the 2004-7 period of the Iraq war reflected the Army's absurd refusal to abandon its garrison force mentality and the disgraceful role of bureaucrat-general Eric Shinseki (see also this piece on Donald Rumsfeld and the generals who resisted him via outdated thinking) in fighting needed reform before the 2007 Surge finally forced the Army to get out of the garrison force and actively work with the locals to defeat enemy forces.
Worth noting is how the 2004-7 period of the Iraq war reflected the Army's absurd refusal to abandon its garrison force mentality and the disgraceful role of bureaucrat-general Eric Shinseki (see also this piece on Donald Rumsfeld and the generals who resisted him via outdated thinking) in fighting needed reform before the 2007 Surge finally forced the Army to get out of the garrison force and actively work with the locals to defeat enemy forces.
Thursday, June 26, 2014
Monday, June 23, 2014
Iraq Is More Complicated Yet Simpler
The Shia vs. Sunni dichotomy in Iraq is peddled in coverage reflecting that it's more - yet at the same time less - complex than people think. The reality is they can be understood and the US can properly act on better understanding.
Sunday, June 22, 2014
Friday, June 20, 2014
Thursday, June 19, 2014
Leading From Behind Gets His Ass Kicked
Obama leads from behind so someone else gets the fire while he covers the ass that keeps getting kicked. He decided it was a good idea to quit Iraq when the enemy was on the run - and now he's let the enemy win. But a general explains how it can be rescued while Charles Krauthammer nicely skewers the excuse-mongering in Obama's defense.
Jimmy Carter And Iran
People have forgotten how Jimmy Carter created the Iranian terrorist state and thus wound up bequeathing continuing war in the Middle East. It remains fact that Democratic regimes have failed to deal with America's enemies while Republican ones have had legitimate success doing so.
Tuesday, June 17, 2014
Monday, June 16, 2014
How Islamists Bounced Back In Iraq
Saddam Hussein's former army worked with Islamic rebels and jumped when the US quit. They are beatable but it requires committing to win.
The Empire That Drives Islamo-Arab Imperialism
Amir Taheri explores the dream that drives Islamo-Arab imperialism. He notes the bottom line requires defeating Islamo-Arab imperialsim and building a civilized alternative.
Sunday, June 15, 2014
Saturday, June 14, 2014
Wednesday, June 11, 2014
Tuesday, June 10, 2014
Monday, June 09, 2014
1986 Talladega 500
NASCAR's most bizarre race as Richard Petty, Tim Richmond, and seemingly everyone else led before a dark horse who stopped being relevant after this race stole the win.
Sunday, June 08, 2014
1987 Daytona 500
Looking back at the 1987 Daytona 500. The racing, while not as competitive as earlier (such as 1971, 1974, 1976, and 1983) and later (notably 1993, 1996, 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2014) 500s, nonetheless is pretty good, and the cars for the most part are better looking than today's - Elliott's Thunderbird, Benny Parsons in Tim Richmond's Monte Carlo (renumbered 35 here), and Richard Petty's Pontiac 2+2 are handsomer racecars than today's sedans.
Of particular interest is the segment at 1:47:00 of this package - Dave Despain shows how the draft has largely disappeared from the racing and thus made passing more difficult. The draft had been effective even on intermediate tracks like Charlotte and Atlanta as well as flat big tracks like Pocono, Michigan, and the by-then-shuttered Ontario track. The disappearance of the draft combined with later switchover to radial tires from bias-plies all but eliminated passing - and the effects of both continue to be felt; one need only contrast the 2014 Indianapolis 500 with NASCAR's Pocono 400 held earlier today as this is written. The draft needs to be returned because that's where the most passing happens.
These cars in this 1987 period would have also benefitted from the roof blade NASCAR ran on and off 2000-10 - not only for a stronger draft but also to plant the nose of the cars onto the ground, as they had a problem of pushing.
Saturday, June 07, 2014
Friday, June 06, 2014
Thursday, June 05, 2014
Remembering A Bergdahl Precedent In Vietnam
During the Vietnam war a Marine soldier was convicted of aiding the enemy in a scenario similar to the Bowe Bergdahl fiasco.
Wednesday, June 04, 2014
Why The NFL Will Expand Playoffs
NOTE: This has been updated to cover the 2014 season:
The proposal to expand NFL playoffs by one team per conference - going to four division winners and three wildcards per conference - has been tabled for 2014 but implementation seems inevitable. It nonetheless has sports talk types up in relative arms with complaints about watering down the regular season etc. and the reason for playoff expansion always centers on more revenue generated.
But looking at the NFL from 2003 onward shows there is a legitimate competitive reason why the NFL will expand the playoffs. Consider the following -
*****
2003:
Miami Dolphins - 10-6
Minnesota Vikings - 9-7
2004:
Buffalo Bills - 9-7
Baltimore Ravens - 9-7
Jacksonville Jaguars - 9-7
2005:
Miami Dolphins - 9-7
Kansas City Chiefs - 10-6
San Diego Chargers - 9-7
Dallas Cowboys - 9-7
Minnesota Vikings - 9-7
2006:
Denver Broncos - 9-7
2007:
Cleveland Browns - 10-6
2008:
New England Patriots - 11-5
NY Jets - 9-7
Dallas Cowboys - 9-7
Chicago Bears - 9-7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 9-7
2009:
Pittsburgh Steelers - 9-7
Houston Texans - 9-7
Atlanta Falcons - 9-7
2010:
San Diego Chargers - 9-7
NY Giants - 10-6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 10-6
2011:
Tennessee Titans - 9-7
2012:
NY Giants - 9-7
Chicago Bears - 10-6
2013:
Arizona Cardinals - 10-6
2014:
Buffalo Bills - 9-7
Houston Texans - 9-7
San Diego Chargers - 9-7
Kansas City Chiefs - 9-7
Philadelphia Eagles - 10-6
What do all these teams have in common? None made the playoffs in those years. There is also the plethora of 8-8 teams that didn't make the playoffs in each of those seasons -
2003 and 2004:
Cincinnati Bengals
New Orleans Saints
2005:
Atlanta Falcons
2006:
Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers
Tennessee Titans
Jacksonville Jaguars
Green Bay Packers
Carolina Panthers
St. Louis Rams
2007:
Houston Texans
Minnesota Vikings
Philadelphia Eagles
Arizona Cardinals
2008:
Houston Texans
Denver Broncos
Washington Redskins
New Orleans Saints
2009:
Tennessee Titans
Denver Broncos
NY Giants
Carolina Panthers
San Francisco 49ers
2010:
Jacksonville Jaguars
Oakland Raiders
2011:
NY Jets
San Diego Chargers
Oakland Raiders
Philadelphia Eagles
Dallas Cowboys
Chicago Bears
Arizona Cardinals
2012:
Pittsburgh Steelers
Dallas Cowboys
2012:
NY Jets
Miami Dolphins
Baltimore Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers
Dallas Cowboys
Chicago Bears
2014:
Miami Dolphins
San Francisco 49ers
An argument I keep hearing against playoff expansion is that it will mean more 7-9 teams making the playoffs - a scenario that's happened only twice in NFL history (2010 Seahawks and 2014 Panthers). The reality is playoff expansion will simply put more teams with winning records into the playoffs.
The proposal to expand NFL playoffs by one team per conference - going to four division winners and three wildcards per conference - has been tabled for 2014 but implementation seems inevitable. It nonetheless has sports talk types up in relative arms with complaints about watering down the regular season etc. and the reason for playoff expansion always centers on more revenue generated.
But looking at the NFL from 2003 onward shows there is a legitimate competitive reason why the NFL will expand the playoffs. Consider the following -
*****
2003:
Miami Dolphins - 10-6
Minnesota Vikings - 9-7
2004:
Buffalo Bills - 9-7
Baltimore Ravens - 9-7
Jacksonville Jaguars - 9-7
2005:
Miami Dolphins - 9-7
Kansas City Chiefs - 10-6
San Diego Chargers - 9-7
Dallas Cowboys - 9-7
Minnesota Vikings - 9-7
2006:
Denver Broncos - 9-7
2007:
Cleveland Browns - 10-6
2008:
New England Patriots - 11-5
NY Jets - 9-7
Dallas Cowboys - 9-7
Chicago Bears - 9-7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 9-7
2009:
Pittsburgh Steelers - 9-7
Houston Texans - 9-7
Atlanta Falcons - 9-7
2010:
San Diego Chargers - 9-7
NY Giants - 10-6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 10-6
2011:
Tennessee Titans - 9-7
2012:
NY Giants - 9-7
Chicago Bears - 10-6
2013:
Arizona Cardinals - 10-6
2014:
Buffalo Bills - 9-7
Houston Texans - 9-7
San Diego Chargers - 9-7
Kansas City Chiefs - 9-7
Philadelphia Eagles - 10-6
What do all these teams have in common? None made the playoffs in those years. There is also the plethora of 8-8 teams that didn't make the playoffs in each of those seasons -
2003 and 2004:
Cincinnati Bengals
New Orleans Saints
2005:
Atlanta Falcons
2006:
Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers
Tennessee Titans
Jacksonville Jaguars
Green Bay Packers
Carolina Panthers
St. Louis Rams
2007:
Houston Texans
Minnesota Vikings
Philadelphia Eagles
Arizona Cardinals
2008:
Houston Texans
Denver Broncos
Washington Redskins
New Orleans Saints
2009:
Tennessee Titans
Denver Broncos
NY Giants
Carolina Panthers
San Francisco 49ers
2010:
Jacksonville Jaguars
Oakland Raiders
2011:
NY Jets
San Diego Chargers
Oakland Raiders
Philadelphia Eagles
Dallas Cowboys
Chicago Bears
Arizona Cardinals
2012:
Pittsburgh Steelers
Dallas Cowboys
2012:
NY Jets
Miami Dolphins
Baltimore Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers
Dallas Cowboys
Chicago Bears
2014:
Miami Dolphins
San Francisco 49ers
An argument I keep hearing against playoff expansion is that it will mean more 7-9 teams making the playoffs - a scenario that's happened only twice in NFL history (2010 Seahawks and 2014 Panthers). The reality is playoff expansion will simply put more teams with winning records into the playoffs.
Tuesday, June 03, 2014
NFL Summer Preview
The NFL preview magazines are starting to come out, so with previews coming to a newsstand et al near you, my own take -
**********
ARIZONA CARDINALS - 10-6 last year with Carson Palmer showed this team is becoming a legitimate threat under Bruce Arians. How much of a threat they can become depends on Palmer, who looks to be starter for awhile as rookie QB Logan Thomas appears to be as raw as they get but with capability the Cards feel can be harnessed.
In the tough NFC West repeating as 10-6 isn't unrealistic.
*****
ATLANTA FALCONS - Team owner Arthur Blank said he was "bothered" that teammates did not rally to Matt Ryan's defense after a Kenny Vaccaro hit during a Falcons-Saints game in 2013. The hit, Blank said, showed the need for more toughness by the Falcons. But it might have also showed something else - that Ryan's teammates are tired of his act; when teammates show up their quarterback like that one gets the impression they've had it with him. Ryan has been a volume stats monster but once playoff time rolls around he's been abysmal, and the Falcons, still loaded with a capable team despite last season's failure, had better start developing a replacement for Ryan.
Right now I'm struggling to see the Falcons reach 8-8.
*****
BALTIMORE RAVENS - In effect blowing up the roster to pay Joe Flacco isn't the wisest way to develop a competitive team. The defense was surprisingly good last year - 12th in points allowed and plus-5 in turnover differential - but the Ravens were still -32 in points differential and the offense went from 10th to 25th in scoring. The Ravens were also in the off-season headlines for all the wrong reasons, much to John Harbaugh's consternation - and scuttlebutt had it that Harbaugh nearly lost his team during the 2012 Superbowl run and that some players who left after 2012 did so because they'd had it with him. One, though, can't underestimate Ozzie Newsome, who's consistently fixed roster issues from Day One of his career as Baltimore's GM.
A 10-6 record in the AFC North seems the likeliest.
*****
BUFFALO BILLS - Is Sammy Watkins the shiny new toy that fools teams into thinking they're better than they are? The Bills better hope he's more than that, as they've won just 88 games the last fourteen seasons and are in the biggest transition they've ever had with the passing of Ralph Wilson and rumor-mongering of an eventual move to Los Angeles - a rumor that makes no sense given the strength of the Buffalo football market, the nonexistence of a football audience in LA (yet despite this the NFL seems hell-bent on eventually getting a team there, more and more with expansion being the lone option for that) and the fact all the possible owners so far have shown zero interest in moving the team. For all their futility the Bills have legitimate talent, seem now to be building an actual program as opposed to the stopgaps tried since Jim Kelly retired, and in EJ Manuel may now have a genuine quarterback of the future.
If the Bills go 8-8 it will be an important step forward.
*****
CAROLINA PANTHERS - Never before have the Panthers posted back-to-back playoff runs. Today's Panthers, though, look good enough to break that streak after three years of consistent improvement under Cam Newton. The meltdown of early 2012 looks a forgotten memory but overcoming the team's playoff drought - not since Jake Delhomme was quarterback have the Panthers won a playoff game - plus getting more firepower out of the offense are the biggest obstacles. A potential dark horse for the Panthers is Tiquan Underwood; he's never been thrown to that much in his five seasons but in 2013 with the woeful Bucs his yards per catch reached a personal record - 18.3 - with four touchdowns.
The Panthers were 12-4 last year; the division looks more competitive this coming season so it appears 11-5 may be what they have to accept.
*****
CHICAGO BEARS - Signing Jay Cutler to a $126 million deal is why the Bears will not break 8-8 in 2014 or down the road. Marc Trestman showed something in his first NFL head coaching stunt, but keeping a proven bust in Cutler is a mistake, especially after the Bears got better production from Josh McCown, now with the Bucs; in his five starts with Chicago McCown went 3-2 with 13 touchdowns and just one pick.
Good luck trying to finish higher than 8-8, Chicago.
*****
CINCINNATI BENGALS - Now the real test begins. Andy Dalton has now won 30 of his 48 starts with the Bengals and has one of the best receiving corps in the league - but his play hasn't been all that consistent and the playoffs have been a nightmare, not only in poor play but in Dalton's refusal to take accountability shown after the playoff loss to the Chargers. He's also lost offensive coordinator Jay Gruden to the Redskins; Hue Jackson takes over that roll and one can be encouraged since he's familiar with Marvin Lewis and also got 8-8 out of his one head coaching season with the always-abysmal Oakland Raiders.
I think the Bengals take a slight step back to 10-6 in 2014.
*****
CLEVELAND BROWNS - If Brian Hoyer can avoid the injuries that felled him last season, the Browns have a legitimate shot at winning more than four games; asking to finish 8-8 or better right now is too much a stretch for the ever-unstable organization. Hiring the much-mocked Kyle Shanahan as offensive coordinator may not be that smart a move.
*****
DALLAS COWBOYS - There's high-end talent with the Cowboys - imagine what Bill Belichick would do with this roster - but too much is wrong here to expect much beyond another 8-8 season. Though he's put up great numbers, Dez Bryant has long been a headcase and head coach Jason Garrett hasn't shown he can get anything more out of this team. The big problem remains the unreliable Tony Romo; though his volume stats make people fall in love with him his Favreball approach always costs the Cowboys in the end.
Expect the Cowboys to miss the playoffs again; and this time Garrett might get the axe.
*****
DENVER BRONCOS - A lot of pontification has proclaimed that the Broncos are trying to win now because of the free agent splurge they've undertaken, particularly to fix a bad defense. Overlooked, though, is the Broncos got DeMarcus Ware from a Cowboys defense that was worse than theirs, and the defensive unit is still coached by Jack Del Rio, who has never been that good a coach given the massive consistency swings of his defenses; in 2012 his defense was among the best in the league and promptly got shredded for 38 points by the Ravens - aided by yet another playoff collapse by Peyton Manning.
It's easy to think the Broncos finish 12-4 or better, but once the playoffs arrive Manning's fundamental failure will arise again; the Broncos, instead of trying to "win now" (which never works), need instead to start developing a successor to Manning.
*****
DETROIT LIONS - Like the Cowboys the Lions have high-end talent. Unlike the Cowboys the Lions changed coaches for 2014 and now former Colt Jim Caldwell holds the reigns. Changing from the erratic Jim Schwartz was perhaps inevitable, especially after the Lions lost six of their last seven games; signing Caldwell, though, doesn't strike one as all that wise given how he inherited one of the very best teams ever seen in Indianapolis in 2009 and in three years it was Sucking For Luck - and firing Caldwell to boot. The arrival of Reggie Bush in 2013 gave a jolt of muscle to the offense and that should continue in 2014. Matthew Stafford has been spectacular but erratic in his five seasons; I still think he's going to be elite.
In a weak NFC North it may be a stretch to pick the Lions going 10-6, but right now I'll make that pick.
*****
GREEN BAY PACKERS - Overrated is the word that comes to mind for this organization and specifically Aaron Rodgers. "Bucked" Rodgers proved anew he cannot lead a comeback - against the Bengals he proved this in hilarious fashion - and backup Matt Flynn proved it further by actually leading several comebacks for the Packers in Rodgers' absence. The Packers have tried to upgrade the defense, but it's still Dom Capers' defense and therein lay the big problem; signing Julius Peppers is the classic case of falling in love with a Name, as Peppers is not as good as advertised to begin with plus he has to adapt to Capers' different scheme.
This is a Packers bunch that looks 9-7 at best.
*****
HOUSTON TEXANS - This is my pick for Comeback Team Of The Year. Bill O'Brien did something proclaimed impossible - he coached Penn State when Penn State was universally considered dead as a football organization, and made the Nittany Lions winners again. The NFL is obviously quite different, but O'Brien doesn't appear fazed by that, plus he has legitimate talent to work with. For now it appears Ryan Fitzpatrick will start; Fitzpatrick can put up numbers but showed in Buffalo and Tennessee that he's not a winner - in Tennessee in particular he threw away at least three winnable games; the immediate story will be how O'Brien handles Fitzpatrick as well as primary backup Case Keenum, who went 0-8 in Houston last year despite putting up some genuinely promising efforts. Defensive end Jadeveon Clowney is considered the Name in the draft, and he'd better live up to it paired with JJ Watt, Brian Cushing, and that group, though signing Romeo Crennell as defensive coordinator is a mistake, because RAC has proven he can't coach.
Despite my misgivings about Fitzpatrick, I think Houston can reach 8-8 or even surpass it.
*****
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS - Remember 2011? They don't either. It's back to endless contention for the Colts with Andrew Luck and company. 11-5 has been the norm in Luck's first two seasons; expect that again, especially with the overrated NFC East on the Colts' schedule. I do expect the AFC South to be tougher than it's been lately.
*****
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS - Then there's the Jaguars, an organization that has disintegrated since going 8-8 with David Garrard in 2010. Gus Bradley naturally endured a very rough debut season as head coach and is stuck with Mr. Underachievement Chad Henne as his starter; the Jags drafted Blake Bortles for the future and seem unlikely to repeat the mistake made throwing the rookie in raw; it helped ruin Blaine Gabbert and everyone associated with the Jaguars wants to forget "Blame" Gabbert as fast as they can. They went 4-12 last year; they look likely to have to accept 4-12 again this year.
*****
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS - How did the Chiefs go to 11-5 last year? Signing an ex-Eagles head coach and an ex-49ers quarterback is a formula that's worked before for Kansas City, but the biggest reason is they got a division Andy Reid knows by heart (the NFC East), they got the Oakland Raiders, a threat to no one outside of the Pittsburgh Steelers, they got the in-transition Jaguars, and they caught Houston and Tennessee at the worst jucture for them. Here's where it goes from bad to worse - they were 0-6 against Denver, San Diego, and Indianapolis, and in 2014 the Chiefs get Denver and San Diego, New England, what should be a much-better Titans squad, and the NFC West, the best division in the league right now. They also get the NY Jets, who never live up to their arrogance yet never go away. Alex Smith is still starter, and he's simply not the answer. It's suddenly hard to see the Chiefs getting past 6-10 this time around, though Andy Reid' has ability to bounce back.
*****
MIAMI DOLPHINS - The more one reads the Ted Wells Report the less credible it gets, as Wells & company basically took ex-Dolphins tackle Jonathan Martin's side right away and cherry-picked evidence to justify slamming former guard Richie Incognito. The reality is Martin was an inferior player who didn't want to take accountability and was viciously treated as exactly that; it showed in the inconsistent play of the Dolphins O-line in 2013 and before, and the 58 sacks taken by Ryan Tannehill helped make the Dolphins 8-8 season worse than it should have been. The O-line appears to have been strengthened with tackles Branden Albert and rookie Ju'Wuan James. Tannehill has shown he can become something for a Dolphins organization trying to become relevant again. His receivers are more a mixed bag, especially mercurial Mike Wallace. Back-to-back 7-9 seasons may see a repeat in 2014 before the Dolphins truly become contenders.
*****
MINNESOTA VIKINGS - In 2014 the Vikings return to a cold-weather stadium for the first time since the opening of the Metrodome as they play at the University of Minnesota until the new digs downtown get finished. New coach Mike Zimmer takes over a roster that started absymally - 1-7 - and finished respectably at 5-3-1. Matt Cassel appears to be the full-time starter now and more and more looks comfortable in the Vikings offense where he never was in Kansas City's ultimately futile attempt to replicate the Belichick Way. Adrian Peterson may see his workload reduced under new coordinator Norv Turner. The defensive line will have to adjust without longtime star Jared Allen. Overall, this team can easily surpass last year's win total; right now it may be 7-9 for 2014 before the Vikes can break out.
*****
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS - Suddenly we're getting more and more stories proclaiming that Tom Brady is no longer an elite quarterback. The problem with that premise is the comeback wins in 2013 - erasing a 17-3 gap to the Dolphins, the last-second bomb against the Saints, the last-second comeback derailed by Clete Blakeman's endzone gaffe in Carolina, the three straight comeback wins in November highlighted by embarrassing Peyton Manning from down 24-0, and the continuing clutch plays even in losses such as the AFC Championship Game. That kind of pressure showcased how Tom Brady while overseeing the installation of what is basically a new offense on the fly is absolutely an elite quarterback.
The receiving corps had the expected rookie issues and should be even better with a second year under their belt, not to mention potential from the undrafted free agent pickups where the Patriots make their roster construction hay. They went 12-4 last year; expect 12-4 or better in 2014, the 20th anniversary of Robert Kraft's purchase of the team.
*****
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS - Remember The Aints? The Aints ain't what they once where - the term Aints now means You Aint Beating New Orleans. The rebound from Roger Goodell's Hissy Fit Of 2012 was actually a little tougher than expected as the Saints have the Panthers to combat for the NFC South. Getting safety Jarius Byrd will help the defense. Expect Carolina and New Orleans to be neck-and-neck for the South again.
*****
NEW YORK GIANTS - The pattern under Tom Coughlin has always been the same - they race out early and collapse late - except in 2013 they fell apart right away and still went 3-3 in their last six games. Coughlin's inconsistency has been overlooked by the two Superbowl wins, yet it's manifestly there, with just three other playoff appearances with no wins in his ten seasons as Giants coach. The Giants went into a $114 million spree on free agent talent to fix the team, especially an offense called "broken" by team co-owner John Mara. But given Coughlin and Eli Manning's histories it's hard to tell if the Giants can better last year's 7-9 record, even with the weakness of the division.
*****
NEW YORK JETS - They're not that good, yet they finished 8-8 last year. They had a plus-15 turnover differential yet it didn't make them appreciably better. They've also made the mistake of bringing in a Name - Michael Vick - to challenge second-year quarterback Geno Smith; bringing in a Name didn't work for Mark Sanchez and it raises still more reason to doubt the Jets' ability to develop quality quarterbacks. The Jets also imported Eric Decker as receiver and Chris Johnson as running back; Johnson hasn't been the same since his 2011 holdout, scoring just 14 touchdowns in three seasons vs. the 14 in 2009 alone. Some how the Jets get better records than they deserve, so 8-8 may be what they get again in 2014.
*****
OAKLAND RAIDERS - Because we have to.
The Raiders finally got out of their salary-cap jail, but signing Matt Schaub as quarterback and Maurice Jones-Drew from the Jaguars just proves things stay the same, as neither player looks to have anything left. They revamped their front seven on defense; if LaMarr Woodley, Antonio Smith, and Justin Tuck prove the doubters wrong the Raiders may have the last laugh after all. I'm not seeing it, though; it's the Raiders, they're a mess, and 4-12 is to be expected.
*****
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES - After a slow start the Eagles erupted in 2013 and should be better with Nick Foles now firmly the starter and Chip Kelly proving he can handle the NFL - though the sideline signboards still need getting used to. Playoff play needs to improve, but overall the Eagles look like they can get there. The schedule gets harder with the NFC East, so bettering last year's 10-6 will be a huge chore.
*****
PITTSBURGH STEELERS - The loss to Tim Tebow in the 2011 playoffs continues to haunt this team as the Steelers have gone 16-16 since then and suddenly look incapable of building an offensive line. Todd Haley and Ben Roethlisberger didn't get along that well in 2013 and Haley is not a coach to feel confidence in. The schedule appears in the 9-7 range for the Steelers.
*****
ST. LOUIS RAMS - 14-17-1 under Jeff Fisher is respectable; now the leap forward has to take place. Sam Bradford is under the gun as he hasn't taken the next step since his promising 2010 season and the division is - stop me if I said this already - the best in the league right now. Brian Schottenheimer does not appear to be anything close to enough as an offensive coordinator, and the Rams need to start attacking more. It appears they have to settle for another 7-9 or 8-8 in 2014.
*****
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS - How mixed was 2013? They underachieved yet made the playoffs and won for the first time since 2008. Yet in the end they still underachieved at 9-7. They should be substantially better having gotten a year under Mike McCoy under their belt; Philip Rivers showed improvement in 2013 and has the chip of losing to Peyton Manning four times the last two seasons on his shoulder; he's a better quarterback than Manning and I expect he'll prove it again. 11-5 is my pick here.
*****
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS - Can the Niners repeat 12-4 from last year? Maybe not, as Colin Kaepernick played well but showed that teams are figuring him out and the Niners have the future quandry of how much to pay him down the road. There's also the bizarre rumor-mongering surrounding Jim Harbaugh. Given how good they've been I'll pick them to go 12-4 again but this is a soft pick; take the under on that one.
*****
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS - They look like the best Superbowl winner since the 2003 Patriots, but unlike that group the Superbowl winners jinx has been real - the 2005 Patriots were the last defending champs to win a playoff game; since then the 2006 and 2009 Steelers, 2007 Colts, 2008 and 2012 NY Giants, 2010 Saints, 2011 Packers, and 2013 Ravens either didn't make the playoffs or were bounced in their first game (the cumulative record of defending champs from 2005 onward is 1-5 in the playoffs). The Seahawks lost substantial depth after the title but overall are more than good enough to repeat as division champs. 12-4 is the bet here, and you may want to consider the over.
*****
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS - Josh Freeman proved to be a team-killer in 2013 and the Bucs now have Bears washout Lovie Smith to take over from Greg Schiano. Josh McCown was signed to be starter over Mike Glennon; McCown proved something in Chicago but Glennon also showed genuine promise in 2013. It looks like a mess and feels like a 5-11 team for 2014.
*****
TENNESSEE TITANS - A lot of people seem down on Jake Locker, and I'm baffled why. The Titans didn't pick up his 2015 option, as though this somehow means they've had enough of him. People forget Locker showed real growth as a quarterback in 2013, has established himself as the leader, and the issue of injuries is akin to Matthew Stafford, who missed most of his first two seasons and hasn't missed a start since. The Titans finished 7-9 last year due to the poor play of Ryan Fitzpatrick; they can be a 10-6 team at worst in 2014.
*****
WASHINGTON REDSKINS - Robert Griffin III was the biggest reason the Redskins became the Deadskins again in 2013 with abysmal efforts; Griffin went to quarterback trainer Terry Shea and it appears the work has improved Griffin. Having said this, ex-coach Mike Shanahan does not deserve benefit of the doubt as he proved he's not a competent coach and hasn't been since John Elway retired. Jay Gruden did a great job as coordinator in Cincinnati, but head coaching is a step up, and the Redskins have been a mess for so long that even Bill Belichick would have a hard time overcoming dimbulb Daniel Snyder. If the Skins surpass 6-10 it will be a substantial upgrade.
We thus continue the countdown to training camp.
**********
ARIZONA CARDINALS - 10-6 last year with Carson Palmer showed this team is becoming a legitimate threat under Bruce Arians. How much of a threat they can become depends on Palmer, who looks to be starter for awhile as rookie QB Logan Thomas appears to be as raw as they get but with capability the Cards feel can be harnessed.
In the tough NFC West repeating as 10-6 isn't unrealistic.
*****
ATLANTA FALCONS - Team owner Arthur Blank said he was "bothered" that teammates did not rally to Matt Ryan's defense after a Kenny Vaccaro hit during a Falcons-Saints game in 2013. The hit, Blank said, showed the need for more toughness by the Falcons. But it might have also showed something else - that Ryan's teammates are tired of his act; when teammates show up their quarterback like that one gets the impression they've had it with him. Ryan has been a volume stats monster but once playoff time rolls around he's been abysmal, and the Falcons, still loaded with a capable team despite last season's failure, had better start developing a replacement for Ryan.
Right now I'm struggling to see the Falcons reach 8-8.
*****
BALTIMORE RAVENS - In effect blowing up the roster to pay Joe Flacco isn't the wisest way to develop a competitive team. The defense was surprisingly good last year - 12th in points allowed and plus-5 in turnover differential - but the Ravens were still -32 in points differential and the offense went from 10th to 25th in scoring. The Ravens were also in the off-season headlines for all the wrong reasons, much to John Harbaugh's consternation - and scuttlebutt had it that Harbaugh nearly lost his team during the 2012 Superbowl run and that some players who left after 2012 did so because they'd had it with him. One, though, can't underestimate Ozzie Newsome, who's consistently fixed roster issues from Day One of his career as Baltimore's GM.
A 10-6 record in the AFC North seems the likeliest.
*****
BUFFALO BILLS - Is Sammy Watkins the shiny new toy that fools teams into thinking they're better than they are? The Bills better hope he's more than that, as they've won just 88 games the last fourteen seasons and are in the biggest transition they've ever had with the passing of Ralph Wilson and rumor-mongering of an eventual move to Los Angeles - a rumor that makes no sense given the strength of the Buffalo football market, the nonexistence of a football audience in LA (yet despite this the NFL seems hell-bent on eventually getting a team there, more and more with expansion being the lone option for that) and the fact all the possible owners so far have shown zero interest in moving the team. For all their futility the Bills have legitimate talent, seem now to be building an actual program as opposed to the stopgaps tried since Jim Kelly retired, and in EJ Manuel may now have a genuine quarterback of the future.
If the Bills go 8-8 it will be an important step forward.
*****
CAROLINA PANTHERS - Never before have the Panthers posted back-to-back playoff runs. Today's Panthers, though, look good enough to break that streak after three years of consistent improvement under Cam Newton. The meltdown of early 2012 looks a forgotten memory but overcoming the team's playoff drought - not since Jake Delhomme was quarterback have the Panthers won a playoff game - plus getting more firepower out of the offense are the biggest obstacles. A potential dark horse for the Panthers is Tiquan Underwood; he's never been thrown to that much in his five seasons but in 2013 with the woeful Bucs his yards per catch reached a personal record - 18.3 - with four touchdowns.
The Panthers were 12-4 last year; the division looks more competitive this coming season so it appears 11-5 may be what they have to accept.
*****
CHICAGO BEARS - Signing Jay Cutler to a $126 million deal is why the Bears will not break 8-8 in 2014 or down the road. Marc Trestman showed something in his first NFL head coaching stunt, but keeping a proven bust in Cutler is a mistake, especially after the Bears got better production from Josh McCown, now with the Bucs; in his five starts with Chicago McCown went 3-2 with 13 touchdowns and just one pick.
Good luck trying to finish higher than 8-8, Chicago.
*****
CINCINNATI BENGALS - Now the real test begins. Andy Dalton has now won 30 of his 48 starts with the Bengals and has one of the best receiving corps in the league - but his play hasn't been all that consistent and the playoffs have been a nightmare, not only in poor play but in Dalton's refusal to take accountability shown after the playoff loss to the Chargers. He's also lost offensive coordinator Jay Gruden to the Redskins; Hue Jackson takes over that roll and one can be encouraged since he's familiar with Marvin Lewis and also got 8-8 out of his one head coaching season with the always-abysmal Oakland Raiders.
I think the Bengals take a slight step back to 10-6 in 2014.
*****
CLEVELAND BROWNS - If Brian Hoyer can avoid the injuries that felled him last season, the Browns have a legitimate shot at winning more than four games; asking to finish 8-8 or better right now is too much a stretch for the ever-unstable organization. Hiring the much-mocked Kyle Shanahan as offensive coordinator may not be that smart a move.
*****
DALLAS COWBOYS - There's high-end talent with the Cowboys - imagine what Bill Belichick would do with this roster - but too much is wrong here to expect much beyond another 8-8 season. Though he's put up great numbers, Dez Bryant has long been a headcase and head coach Jason Garrett hasn't shown he can get anything more out of this team. The big problem remains the unreliable Tony Romo; though his volume stats make people fall in love with him his Favreball approach always costs the Cowboys in the end.
Expect the Cowboys to miss the playoffs again; and this time Garrett might get the axe.
*****
DENVER BRONCOS - A lot of pontification has proclaimed that the Broncos are trying to win now because of the free agent splurge they've undertaken, particularly to fix a bad defense. Overlooked, though, is the Broncos got DeMarcus Ware from a Cowboys defense that was worse than theirs, and the defensive unit is still coached by Jack Del Rio, who has never been that good a coach given the massive consistency swings of his defenses; in 2012 his defense was among the best in the league and promptly got shredded for 38 points by the Ravens - aided by yet another playoff collapse by Peyton Manning.
It's easy to think the Broncos finish 12-4 or better, but once the playoffs arrive Manning's fundamental failure will arise again; the Broncos, instead of trying to "win now" (which never works), need instead to start developing a successor to Manning.
*****
DETROIT LIONS - Like the Cowboys the Lions have high-end talent. Unlike the Cowboys the Lions changed coaches for 2014 and now former Colt Jim Caldwell holds the reigns. Changing from the erratic Jim Schwartz was perhaps inevitable, especially after the Lions lost six of their last seven games; signing Caldwell, though, doesn't strike one as all that wise given how he inherited one of the very best teams ever seen in Indianapolis in 2009 and in three years it was Sucking For Luck - and firing Caldwell to boot. The arrival of Reggie Bush in 2013 gave a jolt of muscle to the offense and that should continue in 2014. Matthew Stafford has been spectacular but erratic in his five seasons; I still think he's going to be elite.
In a weak NFC North it may be a stretch to pick the Lions going 10-6, but right now I'll make that pick.
*****
GREEN BAY PACKERS - Overrated is the word that comes to mind for this organization and specifically Aaron Rodgers. "Bucked" Rodgers proved anew he cannot lead a comeback - against the Bengals he proved this in hilarious fashion - and backup Matt Flynn proved it further by actually leading several comebacks for the Packers in Rodgers' absence. The Packers have tried to upgrade the defense, but it's still Dom Capers' defense and therein lay the big problem; signing Julius Peppers is the classic case of falling in love with a Name, as Peppers is not as good as advertised to begin with plus he has to adapt to Capers' different scheme.
This is a Packers bunch that looks 9-7 at best.
*****
HOUSTON TEXANS - This is my pick for Comeback Team Of The Year. Bill O'Brien did something proclaimed impossible - he coached Penn State when Penn State was universally considered dead as a football organization, and made the Nittany Lions winners again. The NFL is obviously quite different, but O'Brien doesn't appear fazed by that, plus he has legitimate talent to work with. For now it appears Ryan Fitzpatrick will start; Fitzpatrick can put up numbers but showed in Buffalo and Tennessee that he's not a winner - in Tennessee in particular he threw away at least three winnable games; the immediate story will be how O'Brien handles Fitzpatrick as well as primary backup Case Keenum, who went 0-8 in Houston last year despite putting up some genuinely promising efforts. Defensive end Jadeveon Clowney is considered the Name in the draft, and he'd better live up to it paired with JJ Watt, Brian Cushing, and that group, though signing Romeo Crennell as defensive coordinator is a mistake, because RAC has proven he can't coach.
Despite my misgivings about Fitzpatrick, I think Houston can reach 8-8 or even surpass it.
*****
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS - Remember 2011? They don't either. It's back to endless contention for the Colts with Andrew Luck and company. 11-5 has been the norm in Luck's first two seasons; expect that again, especially with the overrated NFC East on the Colts' schedule. I do expect the AFC South to be tougher than it's been lately.
*****
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS - Then there's the Jaguars, an organization that has disintegrated since going 8-8 with David Garrard in 2010. Gus Bradley naturally endured a very rough debut season as head coach and is stuck with Mr. Underachievement Chad Henne as his starter; the Jags drafted Blake Bortles for the future and seem unlikely to repeat the mistake made throwing the rookie in raw; it helped ruin Blaine Gabbert and everyone associated with the Jaguars wants to forget "Blame" Gabbert as fast as they can. They went 4-12 last year; they look likely to have to accept 4-12 again this year.
*****
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS - How did the Chiefs go to 11-5 last year? Signing an ex-Eagles head coach and an ex-49ers quarterback is a formula that's worked before for Kansas City, but the biggest reason is they got a division Andy Reid knows by heart (the NFC East), they got the Oakland Raiders, a threat to no one outside of the Pittsburgh Steelers, they got the in-transition Jaguars, and they caught Houston and Tennessee at the worst jucture for them. Here's where it goes from bad to worse - they were 0-6 against Denver, San Diego, and Indianapolis, and in 2014 the Chiefs get Denver and San Diego, New England, what should be a much-better Titans squad, and the NFC West, the best division in the league right now. They also get the NY Jets, who never live up to their arrogance yet never go away. Alex Smith is still starter, and he's simply not the answer. It's suddenly hard to see the Chiefs getting past 6-10 this time around, though Andy Reid' has ability to bounce back.
*****
MIAMI DOLPHINS - The more one reads the Ted Wells Report the less credible it gets, as Wells & company basically took ex-Dolphins tackle Jonathan Martin's side right away and cherry-picked evidence to justify slamming former guard Richie Incognito. The reality is Martin was an inferior player who didn't want to take accountability and was viciously treated as exactly that; it showed in the inconsistent play of the Dolphins O-line in 2013 and before, and the 58 sacks taken by Ryan Tannehill helped make the Dolphins 8-8 season worse than it should have been. The O-line appears to have been strengthened with tackles Branden Albert and rookie Ju'Wuan James. Tannehill has shown he can become something for a Dolphins organization trying to become relevant again. His receivers are more a mixed bag, especially mercurial Mike Wallace. Back-to-back 7-9 seasons may see a repeat in 2014 before the Dolphins truly become contenders.
*****
MINNESOTA VIKINGS - In 2014 the Vikings return to a cold-weather stadium for the first time since the opening of the Metrodome as they play at the University of Minnesota until the new digs downtown get finished. New coach Mike Zimmer takes over a roster that started absymally - 1-7 - and finished respectably at 5-3-1. Matt Cassel appears to be the full-time starter now and more and more looks comfortable in the Vikings offense where he never was in Kansas City's ultimately futile attempt to replicate the Belichick Way. Adrian Peterson may see his workload reduced under new coordinator Norv Turner. The defensive line will have to adjust without longtime star Jared Allen. Overall, this team can easily surpass last year's win total; right now it may be 7-9 for 2014 before the Vikes can break out.
*****
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS - Suddenly we're getting more and more stories proclaiming that Tom Brady is no longer an elite quarterback. The problem with that premise is the comeback wins in 2013 - erasing a 17-3 gap to the Dolphins, the last-second bomb against the Saints, the last-second comeback derailed by Clete Blakeman's endzone gaffe in Carolina, the three straight comeback wins in November highlighted by embarrassing Peyton Manning from down 24-0, and the continuing clutch plays even in losses such as the AFC Championship Game. That kind of pressure showcased how Tom Brady while overseeing the installation of what is basically a new offense on the fly is absolutely an elite quarterback.
The receiving corps had the expected rookie issues and should be even better with a second year under their belt, not to mention potential from the undrafted free agent pickups where the Patriots make their roster construction hay. They went 12-4 last year; expect 12-4 or better in 2014, the 20th anniversary of Robert Kraft's purchase of the team.
*****
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS - Remember The Aints? The Aints ain't what they once where - the term Aints now means You Aint Beating New Orleans. The rebound from Roger Goodell's Hissy Fit Of 2012 was actually a little tougher than expected as the Saints have the Panthers to combat for the NFC South. Getting safety Jarius Byrd will help the defense. Expect Carolina and New Orleans to be neck-and-neck for the South again.
*****
NEW YORK GIANTS - The pattern under Tom Coughlin has always been the same - they race out early and collapse late - except in 2013 they fell apart right away and still went 3-3 in their last six games. Coughlin's inconsistency has been overlooked by the two Superbowl wins, yet it's manifestly there, with just three other playoff appearances with no wins in his ten seasons as Giants coach. The Giants went into a $114 million spree on free agent talent to fix the team, especially an offense called "broken" by team co-owner John Mara. But given Coughlin and Eli Manning's histories it's hard to tell if the Giants can better last year's 7-9 record, even with the weakness of the division.
*****
NEW YORK JETS - They're not that good, yet they finished 8-8 last year. They had a plus-15 turnover differential yet it didn't make them appreciably better. They've also made the mistake of bringing in a Name - Michael Vick - to challenge second-year quarterback Geno Smith; bringing in a Name didn't work for Mark Sanchez and it raises still more reason to doubt the Jets' ability to develop quality quarterbacks. The Jets also imported Eric Decker as receiver and Chris Johnson as running back; Johnson hasn't been the same since his 2011 holdout, scoring just 14 touchdowns in three seasons vs. the 14 in 2009 alone. Some how the Jets get better records than they deserve, so 8-8 may be what they get again in 2014.
*****
OAKLAND RAIDERS - Because we have to.
The Raiders finally got out of their salary-cap jail, but signing Matt Schaub as quarterback and Maurice Jones-Drew from the Jaguars just proves things stay the same, as neither player looks to have anything left. They revamped their front seven on defense; if LaMarr Woodley, Antonio Smith, and Justin Tuck prove the doubters wrong the Raiders may have the last laugh after all. I'm not seeing it, though; it's the Raiders, they're a mess, and 4-12 is to be expected.
*****
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES - After a slow start the Eagles erupted in 2013 and should be better with Nick Foles now firmly the starter and Chip Kelly proving he can handle the NFL - though the sideline signboards still need getting used to. Playoff play needs to improve, but overall the Eagles look like they can get there. The schedule gets harder with the NFC East, so bettering last year's 10-6 will be a huge chore.
*****
PITTSBURGH STEELERS - The loss to Tim Tebow in the 2011 playoffs continues to haunt this team as the Steelers have gone 16-16 since then and suddenly look incapable of building an offensive line. Todd Haley and Ben Roethlisberger didn't get along that well in 2013 and Haley is not a coach to feel confidence in. The schedule appears in the 9-7 range for the Steelers.
*****
ST. LOUIS RAMS - 14-17-1 under Jeff Fisher is respectable; now the leap forward has to take place. Sam Bradford is under the gun as he hasn't taken the next step since his promising 2010 season and the division is - stop me if I said this already - the best in the league right now. Brian Schottenheimer does not appear to be anything close to enough as an offensive coordinator, and the Rams need to start attacking more. It appears they have to settle for another 7-9 or 8-8 in 2014.
*****
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS - How mixed was 2013? They underachieved yet made the playoffs and won for the first time since 2008. Yet in the end they still underachieved at 9-7. They should be substantially better having gotten a year under Mike McCoy under their belt; Philip Rivers showed improvement in 2013 and has the chip of losing to Peyton Manning four times the last two seasons on his shoulder; he's a better quarterback than Manning and I expect he'll prove it again. 11-5 is my pick here.
*****
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS - Can the Niners repeat 12-4 from last year? Maybe not, as Colin Kaepernick played well but showed that teams are figuring him out and the Niners have the future quandry of how much to pay him down the road. There's also the bizarre rumor-mongering surrounding Jim Harbaugh. Given how good they've been I'll pick them to go 12-4 again but this is a soft pick; take the under on that one.
*****
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS - They look like the best Superbowl winner since the 2003 Patriots, but unlike that group the Superbowl winners jinx has been real - the 2005 Patriots were the last defending champs to win a playoff game; since then the 2006 and 2009 Steelers, 2007 Colts, 2008 and 2012 NY Giants, 2010 Saints, 2011 Packers, and 2013 Ravens either didn't make the playoffs or were bounced in their first game (the cumulative record of defending champs from 2005 onward is 1-5 in the playoffs). The Seahawks lost substantial depth after the title but overall are more than good enough to repeat as division champs. 12-4 is the bet here, and you may want to consider the over.
*****
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS - Josh Freeman proved to be a team-killer in 2013 and the Bucs now have Bears washout Lovie Smith to take over from Greg Schiano. Josh McCown was signed to be starter over Mike Glennon; McCown proved something in Chicago but Glennon also showed genuine promise in 2013. It looks like a mess and feels like a 5-11 team for 2014.
*****
TENNESSEE TITANS - A lot of people seem down on Jake Locker, and I'm baffled why. The Titans didn't pick up his 2015 option, as though this somehow means they've had enough of him. People forget Locker showed real growth as a quarterback in 2013, has established himself as the leader, and the issue of injuries is akin to Matthew Stafford, who missed most of his first two seasons and hasn't missed a start since. The Titans finished 7-9 last year due to the poor play of Ryan Fitzpatrick; they can be a 10-6 team at worst in 2014.
*****
WASHINGTON REDSKINS - Robert Griffin III was the biggest reason the Redskins became the Deadskins again in 2013 with abysmal efforts; Griffin went to quarterback trainer Terry Shea and it appears the work has improved Griffin. Having said this, ex-coach Mike Shanahan does not deserve benefit of the doubt as he proved he's not a competent coach and hasn't been since John Elway retired. Jay Gruden did a great job as coordinator in Cincinnati, but head coaching is a step up, and the Redskins have been a mess for so long that even Bill Belichick would have a hard time overcoming dimbulb Daniel Snyder. If the Skins surpass 6-10 it will be a substantial upgrade.
We thus continue the countdown to training camp.
Sunday, June 01, 2014
Saturday, May 31, 2014
Thursday, May 29, 2014
Obama's Non-Recovery
The economy shrank in the first quarter of 2014. The numbers show Obama has cost the economy $2 trillion.
The Gun Control Disinformation Campaign
The mayor of New York has been pushing a complete disinformation campaign against guns.
More On Crony Capitalism
We now have a new study showing how crony capitalism benefits politicians and those businesses that play along with them - including WalMart, Alcoa, and Apple.
Wednesday, May 28, 2014
Lack Of Outrage Over Outing CIA Chief In Kabul
Here is why there is not more outrage about the outing of the CIA station chief in Kabul - the Obama regime doesn't believe in not leaking anything that doesn't sabotage US victory against terrorism.
Sunday, May 25, 2014
Indianapolis/Charlotte Post-Mortems
And so Memorial Day motorsports blast off and leave plenty of subplots to contemplate as the Indianapolis 500 exploded to one of its most exciting finishes while the World 600 saw a late challenge for Jimmie Johnson but in the end it was a challenge Johnson wasn't going to lose.
Ryan Hunter-Reay is one of those drivers who has been largely overlooked as far as Mainstream Media attention - such as it is nowadays - toward Indycar racing goes. He nonetheless has been around for over ten years and has put together quite a number of wins from his days in the old CART series, winning with Stefan Johansson in Australia and also with the old Herdez team leading wire to wire at Milwaukee. Signing on with Rahal-Letterman's team, he won at Watkins Glen before that team dissolved. Michael Andretti's Indycar team now sought his services and Hunter-Reay has assembled a nice collection of victory trophies - Milwaukee and the Birmingham road course have been almost his personal playground in Indycars.
Hunter-Reay's Indianapolis win will stand out, not only for being Indianapolis but for how hard he had to fight. The last 43 laps were a drafting slugfest and the lead changed ten times in that span; the lead changed twice on Lap 199 alone, and nothing was going to stop him.
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Amid Hunter-Reay's spectacular day there were many subplots - none bigger than Ed Carpenter's spectacular run and then coming to near-blows with James Hinchcliffe on a Lap 175 restart where Carpenter got sandwiched and an unplanned attempt to race three abreast through Turn One went south quickly. Though he's won twice and led 207 laps in Indycar racing, Carpenter has never really established himself as something other than Tony George's stepson, this even though he's continued showing he's for real as a racer.
The big challenger to Hunter-Reay late was Helio Castroneves, now on a quest to win Indianapolis four times; he damn near pulled it off in Penske's retro-Johnny Rutherford Pennzoil paint scheme. Between them Penske and Michael Andretti swept the top six finishing spots, while Ed Carpenter's team salvaged a tenth place by J.R. Hildebrand.
Curiously having an abysmal day was Ganassi Racing, who entered three cars and lost two of them to wrecks while lameduck 500 champ Tony Kanaan was nowhere other than 26th at the end.
The other big subplot was that Indycar's third-year racecar for some reason has been at its raciest at the 500. For three straight 500s the draft has been the dominant characteristic of the racing and of this racecar, and the ferocity of the passing showed it. It is odd that this car hasn't quite had the same effect at Pocono and other high-speed tracks where the draft should be everything - for Indycars as well as NASCAR.
**********
Disappointing was the lack of pre-race buzz, even with the connection between the 500 and the World 600. Kurt Busch had entered the 500 in one of Michael Andretti's cars hoping to make the 500-600 double, the first such attempt by anyone in years. Busch finished a quiet but nonetheless impressive sixth in the 500 before flying to Charlotte for the 600, and ran better than I suspect a lot of railbirds would have expected - yet in the end he lost power and finished 40th, and raised the question of whether the double was truly worth it.
Busch's effort took a back seat to teammate Kevin Harvick, who led 100 laps and tried to run down Jimmie Johnson at the end. This is starting to become a pattern, as Harvick was the strongest yet a Hendrick car beat him at Kansas. The rest of Stewart-Haas' effort was more mixed; Tony finished 13th - his first finish higher than 20th in a month - while 39th and 40th were the domain of Kurt Busch and Danica Patrick. Little Miss Danica again earned media coverage beyond her talent level after a surprisingly good qualifying effort - but again once the race started she began to lose grip and then got waylaid in a crash.
While Chip Ganassi didn't have anything to be proud of at The Brickyard he salvaged something in Bruton's Backyard via Jamie McMurray's fifth, coming after his All-Star Race win. McMurray continues to be one of those guys who gets lost in the media shuffle yet will not go away on the track.
Speaking of guys who won't go away, Brian Vickers continues to get into solid finishes, and lately has looked better than teammate Clint Bowyer, while another who won't go away even though he hasn't done much lately is Trevor Bayne, 20th in the 600 in the Wood Brothers #21 and now proud recipient of a full-time Roush Ford ride for 2015; an angle to watch is whether this is a fourth Roush car or a replacement for one of his established drivers, this amid burgeoning rumors of a split with Carl Edwards and also scuttlebutt that Ricky Stenhouse may not last the season - certainly he's making no case for himself on the racetrack.
A Ford that IS making a case for itself on the racetrack yet again is Richard Petty's #43, as Aric Almirola refuses to go away and continues to become a contender under Trent Owens. 11th is actually disappointing given Almirola clawed into contention and had to overcome stalling the car on a late stop.
So with that, Indycar continues on while NASCAR heads to Dover for a date with Bristol on steroids.
Ryan Hunter-Reay is one of those drivers who has been largely overlooked as far as Mainstream Media attention - such as it is nowadays - toward Indycar racing goes. He nonetheless has been around for over ten years and has put together quite a number of wins from his days in the old CART series, winning with Stefan Johansson in Australia and also with the old Herdez team leading wire to wire at Milwaukee. Signing on with Rahal-Letterman's team, he won at Watkins Glen before that team dissolved. Michael Andretti's Indycar team now sought his services and Hunter-Reay has assembled a nice collection of victory trophies - Milwaukee and the Birmingham road course have been almost his personal playground in Indycars.
Hunter-Reay's Indianapolis win will stand out, not only for being Indianapolis but for how hard he had to fight. The last 43 laps were a drafting slugfest and the lead changed ten times in that span; the lead changed twice on Lap 199 alone, and nothing was going to stop him.
**********
Amid Hunter-Reay's spectacular day there were many subplots - none bigger than Ed Carpenter's spectacular run and then coming to near-blows with James Hinchcliffe on a Lap 175 restart where Carpenter got sandwiched and an unplanned attempt to race three abreast through Turn One went south quickly. Though he's won twice and led 207 laps in Indycar racing, Carpenter has never really established himself as something other than Tony George's stepson, this even though he's continued showing he's for real as a racer.
The big challenger to Hunter-Reay late was Helio Castroneves, now on a quest to win Indianapolis four times; he damn near pulled it off in Penske's retro-Johnny Rutherford Pennzoil paint scheme. Between them Penske and Michael Andretti swept the top six finishing spots, while Ed Carpenter's team salvaged a tenth place by J.R. Hildebrand.
Curiously having an abysmal day was Ganassi Racing, who entered three cars and lost two of them to wrecks while lameduck 500 champ Tony Kanaan was nowhere other than 26th at the end.
The other big subplot was that Indycar's third-year racecar for some reason has been at its raciest at the 500. For three straight 500s the draft has been the dominant characteristic of the racing and of this racecar, and the ferocity of the passing showed it. It is odd that this car hasn't quite had the same effect at Pocono and other high-speed tracks where the draft should be everything - for Indycars as well as NASCAR.
**********
Disappointing was the lack of pre-race buzz, even with the connection between the 500 and the World 600. Kurt Busch had entered the 500 in one of Michael Andretti's cars hoping to make the 500-600 double, the first such attempt by anyone in years. Busch finished a quiet but nonetheless impressive sixth in the 500 before flying to Charlotte for the 600, and ran better than I suspect a lot of railbirds would have expected - yet in the end he lost power and finished 40th, and raised the question of whether the double was truly worth it.
Busch's effort took a back seat to teammate Kevin Harvick, who led 100 laps and tried to run down Jimmie Johnson at the end. This is starting to become a pattern, as Harvick was the strongest yet a Hendrick car beat him at Kansas. The rest of Stewart-Haas' effort was more mixed; Tony finished 13th - his first finish higher than 20th in a month - while 39th and 40th were the domain of Kurt Busch and Danica Patrick. Little Miss Danica again earned media coverage beyond her talent level after a surprisingly good qualifying effort - but again once the race started she began to lose grip and then got waylaid in a crash.
While Chip Ganassi didn't have anything to be proud of at The Brickyard he salvaged something in Bruton's Backyard via Jamie McMurray's fifth, coming after his All-Star Race win. McMurray continues to be one of those guys who gets lost in the media shuffle yet will not go away on the track.
Speaking of guys who won't go away, Brian Vickers continues to get into solid finishes, and lately has looked better than teammate Clint Bowyer, while another who won't go away even though he hasn't done much lately is Trevor Bayne, 20th in the 600 in the Wood Brothers #21 and now proud recipient of a full-time Roush Ford ride for 2015; an angle to watch is whether this is a fourth Roush car or a replacement for one of his established drivers, this amid burgeoning rumors of a split with Carl Edwards and also scuttlebutt that Ricky Stenhouse may not last the season - certainly he's making no case for himself on the racetrack.
A Ford that IS making a case for itself on the racetrack yet again is Richard Petty's #43, as Aric Almirola refuses to go away and continues to become a contender under Trent Owens. 11th is actually disappointing given Almirola clawed into contention and had to overcome stalling the car on a late stop.
So with that, Indycar continues on while NASCAR heads to Dover for a date with Bristol on steroids.
Saturday, May 24, 2014
Thursday, May 22, 2014
Obama's Continuing Failure Of Decency
Obama has the fundamental problem that he professes love for humanity but in fact hates everyone. It's showing again in the burgeoning VA scandal.
Monday, May 19, 2014
Saturday, May 17, 2014
Thursday, May 15, 2014
Wednesday, May 14, 2014
Why Benghazi Is Still Being Investigated
The answer is that the Obama administration won't come clean. It was caught flat-footed, proved utterly incapable of handling a crisis, and refuses to admit being wrong. It brought it on itself between letting Islamo-Arab terrorists take over Egypt after Mubarak fell and then letting the enemy escape once said enemy attacked. And attempts at exculpatory explanation by White House flacks run into the House Armed Services committee's conclusion that the Administration lied, specifically Leon Panetti, the area commander General Ham, and JCS Chairman Martin Dempsey.
Obama by any objective analysis was derelict in his duty and let the enemy escape, and has waged a Cover Your Ass campaign ever since.
Obama by any objective analysis was derelict in his duty and let the enemy escape, and has waged a Cover Your Ass campaign ever since.
The Myth Of Danica Improvement
Thomas Bowles debunks the hoopla that Danica Patrick is getting better and also examines why NASCAR continues struggling in TV ratings despite noticeable improvement in at-track attendance.
My take - He makes a legitimate point when he notes that the sport is not seeing a rise in fresh new faces. Danica Patrick was a subpar racer in 2013 and a subpar racer in Indycars, and she's not getting better - the bigger problem is nobody else is, either, even with superb efforts by Kyle Larson. It's been a lengthy reality in the sport as the technology arms race has made the sport more difficult to run. In a sense it's a return to the problem in the 1970s that success begat success and the other teams were left further and further behind - it took the injection of more money from sponsors and the return of the factories in the 1976-80s period for new blood to come to the fore.
There are several reasons for this, but the biggest one I believe remains that NASCAR keeps running radial tires where bias-plies are fundamentally better for racing. Short track stars simply can't transition to the big leagues because the way radial tires race makes a short tracker's experience useless - thus is upward mobility for racers stopped. That Goodyear does not sell bias plies to the public explains why, and Goodyear has been able to make tires that give some of the raceability of bias plies - seen in numerous competitive Truck races such as Kansas in 2013 and '14. Nonetheless reestablishing upward mobility for short trackers to where they can graduate to Cup or Indycar remains an underappreciated necessity.
My take - He makes a legitimate point when he notes that the sport is not seeing a rise in fresh new faces. Danica Patrick was a subpar racer in 2013 and a subpar racer in Indycars, and she's not getting better - the bigger problem is nobody else is, either, even with superb efforts by Kyle Larson. It's been a lengthy reality in the sport as the technology arms race has made the sport more difficult to run. In a sense it's a return to the problem in the 1970s that success begat success and the other teams were left further and further behind - it took the injection of more money from sponsors and the return of the factories in the 1976-80s period for new blood to come to the fore.
There are several reasons for this, but the biggest one I believe remains that NASCAR keeps running radial tires where bias-plies are fundamentally better for racing. Short track stars simply can't transition to the big leagues because the way radial tires race makes a short tracker's experience useless - thus is upward mobility for racers stopped. That Goodyear does not sell bias plies to the public explains why, and Goodyear has been able to make tires that give some of the raceability of bias plies - seen in numerous competitive Truck races such as Kansas in 2013 and '14. Nonetheless reestablishing upward mobility for short trackers to where they can graduate to Cup or Indycar remains an underappreciated necessity.
Tuesday, May 13, 2014
Obamacare's Goal - Denial Of Choices
Obamacare has been a failure and here we get an illustration of what crony capitalism looks like - government dictating the rules and favored companies getting the benefit at the expense of everyone.
NASCAR Balance Sheet Before The All-Stars
With the annual semi-farce that is Bruton Smith's All-Star Race now on the horizon, we look at the Cup teams and how they look going in -
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HENDRICK MOTORSPORTS - Not the juggernaut they've been in the past, Hendrick Motorsports instead is strikingly balanced as Jeff Gordon has a win and Junior has a win. Jimmie Johnson is winless but has led 572 laps so far; that he's winless this deep into the season has surprised a lot of people. The car left behind has been Kasey Kahne, who's managed to show some rebound the last two races, especially at Kansas.
STEWART-HAAS RACING - Gene Haas' activities have given this outfit a bit of a drama-queen quality, yet it has three wins so far and has been decidedly ahead of Hendrick Motorsports, the supplier of SHR's machinery. The striking fact about SHR's season, however, is how poorly they're doing in points, with Kevin Harvick, the clear leader of this gang, only 15th in points. Even with the irrelevancy of the regular-season points standings, this is a surprising fact.
PENSKE RACING - The top Ford team, Penske Racing is Joey Logano's outfit now; Brad Keselowski is just along for the ride, and it's showing more and more. Logano suddenly is for real as a title contender.
JOE GIBBS RACING - Despite missing a race, Denny Hamlin is 11th in points while teammates Matt Kenseth - like Johnson curiously winless - and Kyle Busch are in the top three in points. Kenseth has led the most laps of the JGR squad at 271, which makes his lack of a win so far surprising. JGR is Toyota's top team and that's not enough for Toyota to make the run; there needs to be more firepower here.
ROUSH-FENWAY RACING - Carl Edwards is almost this outfit's only contender, and it hasn't been close to enough of a fight to take RFR seriously outside of winning some races. Greg Biffle has been good but not great, while Ricky Stenhouse hasn't even been all that good at 25th in points.
RCR ENTERPRISES - That Ryan Newman is eighth in points right now is downright insulting. There has been no sustainable fight out of this team all season, shown in the paltry 56 laps led by what is supposed to be a juggernaut. Newman's points position combines with an even bigger surprise - that Austin Dillon is 14th in points. Dillon won the Daytona 500 pole and has been mostly MIA since. Paul Menard at 15th is too high for his woeful talent level, but he at least led with some authority at the plate tracks.
MICHAEL WALTRIP RACING - Unnoticed has been Brian Vickers, now tenth in points. Quietly he's clawed into contention and a pair of fourths plus 30 laps led at Darlington combined with his Talladega bid show MWR, despite a battered reputation from last season, isn't dead after all. Curiously quiet has also been Clint Bowyer, 21st in points and struggling in two of the last three races.
GANASSI-SABCO RACING - This is an outfit on the rise again with what may be a long-bomb touchdown of a driver choice in Kyle Larson. Much better than I expected, Larson has outclassed the rest of the rookie race after a slow start to the season. He's clearly taking over this outfit from Jamie McMurray, who managed two top-tens in the first five races and has been MIA since.
BRAD DAUGHERTY RACING - As a one-car team I'm not sure they can sustain the run they've been on so far, but AJ Allmendinger has been another one quietly putting up surprising runs that make him better than his mediocre points position (17th) would indicate.
RICHARD PETTY MOTORSPORTS - Expectations for this outfit weren't all that hot going into 2014, but RPM has been quietly defying expectations. Aric Almirola has shown legitimate improvement under new crew chief Trent Owens and the Kansas effort has been the best so far. Marcos Ambrose has been more erratic but has a pair of top-fives to go with his much-publicized garage set-to with Casey Mears. Suddenly it isn't implausible to think Richard can see another win.
GERMAIN RACING - Speaking of Casey Mears, the one word to describe his career is non-achievement, a fitting description of crew chief Robert "Bootie" Barker as well. It's continuing with the small Germain outfit.
BARNEY VISSER RACING - Now we're seeing why Martin Truex Jr. hasn't done much in his Winston Cup career - Kurt Busch got 11 top-fives and nearly 500 laps led out of Furniture Row's outfit in 2013, and this year Truex has one top-ten and no laps led. Truex has entered Greg Sacks territory.
HARRY SCOTT JR. - Justin Allgaier is competing against all odds and it shows; his Talladega victory bid still warrants great respect.
TOMMY BALDWIN JR. RACING - The disappointment of the season may be Michael Annett, who showed real racing form in the Busch Series yet has not translated any firepower into Cup.
FRONT ROW MOTORSPORTS - Bob Jenkins - no, not the former telecaster - got the upset of the decade in 2013 in the most electrifying win a lot of people have ever seen with David Ragan's Talladega win. That magic has not reappeared and fielding David Reutimann for a few races didn't improve anything.
THE REST OF THE FIELD - The only other team worth mentioning is Wood Brothers Racing as Trevor Bayne raced at Daytona and led two laps then raced at Talladega and led six laps - he also had decent efforts at Vegas and Fontana.
The field thus gathers for the All Star Race as a season that's already been a little strange may get more so.
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HENDRICK MOTORSPORTS - Not the juggernaut they've been in the past, Hendrick Motorsports instead is strikingly balanced as Jeff Gordon has a win and Junior has a win. Jimmie Johnson is winless but has led 572 laps so far; that he's winless this deep into the season has surprised a lot of people. The car left behind has been Kasey Kahne, who's managed to show some rebound the last two races, especially at Kansas.
STEWART-HAAS RACING - Gene Haas' activities have given this outfit a bit of a drama-queen quality, yet it has three wins so far and has been decidedly ahead of Hendrick Motorsports, the supplier of SHR's machinery. The striking fact about SHR's season, however, is how poorly they're doing in points, with Kevin Harvick, the clear leader of this gang, only 15th in points. Even with the irrelevancy of the regular-season points standings, this is a surprising fact.
PENSKE RACING - The top Ford team, Penske Racing is Joey Logano's outfit now; Brad Keselowski is just along for the ride, and it's showing more and more. Logano suddenly is for real as a title contender.
JOE GIBBS RACING - Despite missing a race, Denny Hamlin is 11th in points while teammates Matt Kenseth - like Johnson curiously winless - and Kyle Busch are in the top three in points. Kenseth has led the most laps of the JGR squad at 271, which makes his lack of a win so far surprising. JGR is Toyota's top team and that's not enough for Toyota to make the run; there needs to be more firepower here.
ROUSH-FENWAY RACING - Carl Edwards is almost this outfit's only contender, and it hasn't been close to enough of a fight to take RFR seriously outside of winning some races. Greg Biffle has been good but not great, while Ricky Stenhouse hasn't even been all that good at 25th in points.
RCR ENTERPRISES - That Ryan Newman is eighth in points right now is downright insulting. There has been no sustainable fight out of this team all season, shown in the paltry 56 laps led by what is supposed to be a juggernaut. Newman's points position combines with an even bigger surprise - that Austin Dillon is 14th in points. Dillon won the Daytona 500 pole and has been mostly MIA since. Paul Menard at 15th is too high for his woeful talent level, but he at least led with some authority at the plate tracks.
MICHAEL WALTRIP RACING - Unnoticed has been Brian Vickers, now tenth in points. Quietly he's clawed into contention and a pair of fourths plus 30 laps led at Darlington combined with his Talladega bid show MWR, despite a battered reputation from last season, isn't dead after all. Curiously quiet has also been Clint Bowyer, 21st in points and struggling in two of the last three races.
GANASSI-SABCO RACING - This is an outfit on the rise again with what may be a long-bomb touchdown of a driver choice in Kyle Larson. Much better than I expected, Larson has outclassed the rest of the rookie race after a slow start to the season. He's clearly taking over this outfit from Jamie McMurray, who managed two top-tens in the first five races and has been MIA since.
BRAD DAUGHERTY RACING - As a one-car team I'm not sure they can sustain the run they've been on so far, but AJ Allmendinger has been another one quietly putting up surprising runs that make him better than his mediocre points position (17th) would indicate.
RICHARD PETTY MOTORSPORTS - Expectations for this outfit weren't all that hot going into 2014, but RPM has been quietly defying expectations. Aric Almirola has shown legitimate improvement under new crew chief Trent Owens and the Kansas effort has been the best so far. Marcos Ambrose has been more erratic but has a pair of top-fives to go with his much-publicized garage set-to with Casey Mears. Suddenly it isn't implausible to think Richard can see another win.
GERMAIN RACING - Speaking of Casey Mears, the one word to describe his career is non-achievement, a fitting description of crew chief Robert "Bootie" Barker as well. It's continuing with the small Germain outfit.
BARNEY VISSER RACING - Now we're seeing why Martin Truex Jr. hasn't done much in his Winston Cup career - Kurt Busch got 11 top-fives and nearly 500 laps led out of Furniture Row's outfit in 2013, and this year Truex has one top-ten and no laps led. Truex has entered Greg Sacks territory.
HARRY SCOTT JR. - Justin Allgaier is competing against all odds and it shows; his Talladega victory bid still warrants great respect.
TOMMY BALDWIN JR. RACING - The disappointment of the season may be Michael Annett, who showed real racing form in the Busch Series yet has not translated any firepower into Cup.
FRONT ROW MOTORSPORTS - Bob Jenkins - no, not the former telecaster - got the upset of the decade in 2013 in the most electrifying win a lot of people have ever seen with David Ragan's Talladega win. That magic has not reappeared and fielding David Reutimann for a few races didn't improve anything.
THE REST OF THE FIELD - The only other team worth mentioning is Wood Brothers Racing as Trevor Bayne raced at Daytona and led two laps then raced at Talladega and led six laps - he also had decent efforts at Vegas and Fontana.
The field thus gathers for the All Star Race as a season that's already been a little strange may get more so.
Monday, May 12, 2014
Boko Haram And Islamo-Arab Imperialism
Islamo-Arab scholar Ayaan Hirsi Ali - invited to a lecture at Brandeis before the college cancelled it because she tells the truth about Islamo-Arab imperialism - discusses the kidnapping of Nigerian schoolgirls and what the Islamo-Arab imperial ideology is about.
Sunday, May 11, 2014
The Left's New Crony Capitalism Crusade
The Left has taken to a new book, Capital In The 21st Century, yet some critics are going beyond the book's absurd argument about inequality (which has long been a result of excessively collectivist policies, not market ones) and instead are using it to attack government backing of certain industries. The Left is now fighting to defend crony capitalism.
Racing's Bang-Up Mother's Day Weekend
It was a bang-up Mother's Day weekend in racing and thus is accelerated the motorsports Mecca that is the month of May. Some takes on the varied racing efforts seen this weekend -
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Maybe it wasn't such a good idea after all - The first Grand Prix of Indianapolis added a new wrinkle to Indianapolis Motor Speedway but also showed some nastiness as Sebastian Saavedra won the pole, then gagged entirely on the start and got creamed by Carlos Munoz, driving one of Michael Andretti's cars, and Mikhail Aleshin in Sam Schmidt's car.
And that was just the first wreck - later on Scott Dixon and Will Power renewed Penske vs. Ganassi acquaintances in Turn Three, then in Turn Seven Michael Andretti and A.J. Foyt's teams said a rude Hello between Franck Montagny's #26 and Mike Plowman's #41, and finally Juan Montoya, unable to find a jet dryer to destroy, instead encountered Graham Rahal.
With nine road course cars (out of a 25-car field) thus dispatched, an interesting subplot involving rivalries may have been added to the 500 in two weeks. Certainly Sam Schmidt and company got something big out of the GP - Simon Pagenaud won it, completing a nice sweep as Sam's Indy Lights driver Luiz Razia led wire-to-wire in the Indy Lights portion of the day.
The contrast of Trucks and Cup at Kansas continued - Last season the Truck 250 at Kansas proved to be a very exciting affair and 2014's running also had very memorable racing. Kyle Busch won the Truck 250 after battling Brad Keselowski's two Ford trucks most of the night and battle is the operative word here - Busch and Joey Logano got into several nice sidedrafting bouts for first, illustrating again the striking and downright baffling contrast of the Trucks and the Cup cars here and elsewhere - the ability of the Trucks to have the draft mean something where it still hasn't for the Cup cars.
Some Truck shout-outs - Jeb Burton's season hasn't been much, but he got a solid sixth with Duke Thorson, his second top-ten in three starts and his season now looking optimistic after all. Also looking great was Taylor Malsam, making his season debut in Steve Turner's Chevrolet and finishing fifth.
While she doesn't get the publicity of Danica Patrick, Jennifer Jo Cobb has posted some decent efforts in anonymity, including a respectable 13th at Kansas.
Chevrolet bounces back - and so does Hendrick - Jeff Gordon got a huge pitstop late and got an ugly handling issue for Kevin Harvick at the end to grab his first win of the season. Harvick nonetheless led 119 laps and showed anew he's for real for the whole season. It was point for a huge bounce back for Chevrolet as the bowties took six of the top nine spots while Ford grabbed three top tens and Toyota was largely MIA - only Matt Kenseth in 10th wound up with anything. It was also another big night for Hendrick as all four Hendrick cars were in the top nine.
Given he's the focus every week, it should be noted Dale Junior's fifth was an especially solid bounce back after a dismal effort at Talladega, and it's his fourth top-seven finish in his last six outings.
It was a more mixed bag for Stewart-Haas as Tony and Kurt Busch had another forgettable night while the shocker of the night was Danica Patrick's seventh.
Continuing to fall back are the RCR Chevrolets, with Ryan Newman salvaging 11th as his season continues to be unimpressive while Paul Menard had a Menard-esque night a lap down and Austin Dillon keeps losing the rookie race to Kyle Larson.
Richard Petty's team on the rise - Though he lost seventh at the end to Danica Patrick, Aric Almirola was very solid all night en route to eighth in Petty's #43. His third top-ten of the year, it also gave Petty's organization its fifth top-ten (three of them top-fives) between Almirola and Marcos Ambrose. The nit to pick is the Petty cars need to go for the lead harder, especially in the restrictor plate races; overall, though, it's no longer implausible to expect a win for The King.
Pal Joey - If you thought there might be a chance Joey Logano could slide a bit down the Penske totem pole, it's getting more and more obvious that won't happen after leading 63 laps at Kansas on top of his great sidedraft fight with Kyle Busch in the Truck 250 the night before, and steadily showing he's for real after all - and I doubt anyone had that in the office pool the previous five seasons watching him. One has to see if Brad Keselowski can get anything going again with a mediocre 13th at Kansas and the wound still raw from his Ernie Irvan imitation at Talladega.
Speaking of which.......... - Keselowski was asked about that Talladega gaffe before the Kansas race and he answered, "I wasn't ready to give up." One has mixed feelings here - racing insane when six laps down is not smart and we all saw what resulted. Yet Keselowski's go-for-the-win approach is fundamentally the right one - especially in contrast to Junior quitting on the win in that same Talladega race.
And so the month of May marches toward Ten Days Of Bruton Smith at Charlotte as well as an Indianapolis 500 where the competitive expectations have now hit 68 lead changes based on 2013's running.
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Maybe it wasn't such a good idea after all - The first Grand Prix of Indianapolis added a new wrinkle to Indianapolis Motor Speedway but also showed some nastiness as Sebastian Saavedra won the pole, then gagged entirely on the start and got creamed by Carlos Munoz, driving one of Michael Andretti's cars, and Mikhail Aleshin in Sam Schmidt's car.
And that was just the first wreck - later on Scott Dixon and Will Power renewed Penske vs. Ganassi acquaintances in Turn Three, then in Turn Seven Michael Andretti and A.J. Foyt's teams said a rude Hello between Franck Montagny's #26 and Mike Plowman's #41, and finally Juan Montoya, unable to find a jet dryer to destroy, instead encountered Graham Rahal.
With nine road course cars (out of a 25-car field) thus dispatched, an interesting subplot involving rivalries may have been added to the 500 in two weeks. Certainly Sam Schmidt and company got something big out of the GP - Simon Pagenaud won it, completing a nice sweep as Sam's Indy Lights driver Luiz Razia led wire-to-wire in the Indy Lights portion of the day.
The contrast of Trucks and Cup at Kansas continued - Last season the Truck 250 at Kansas proved to be a very exciting affair and 2014's running also had very memorable racing. Kyle Busch won the Truck 250 after battling Brad Keselowski's two Ford trucks most of the night and battle is the operative word here - Busch and Joey Logano got into several nice sidedrafting bouts for first, illustrating again the striking and downright baffling contrast of the Trucks and the Cup cars here and elsewhere - the ability of the Trucks to have the draft mean something where it still hasn't for the Cup cars.
Some Truck shout-outs - Jeb Burton's season hasn't been much, but he got a solid sixth with Duke Thorson, his second top-ten in three starts and his season now looking optimistic after all. Also looking great was Taylor Malsam, making his season debut in Steve Turner's Chevrolet and finishing fifth.
While she doesn't get the publicity of Danica Patrick, Jennifer Jo Cobb has posted some decent efforts in anonymity, including a respectable 13th at Kansas.
Chevrolet bounces back - and so does Hendrick - Jeff Gordon got a huge pitstop late and got an ugly handling issue for Kevin Harvick at the end to grab his first win of the season. Harvick nonetheless led 119 laps and showed anew he's for real for the whole season. It was point for a huge bounce back for Chevrolet as the bowties took six of the top nine spots while Ford grabbed three top tens and Toyota was largely MIA - only Matt Kenseth in 10th wound up with anything. It was also another big night for Hendrick as all four Hendrick cars were in the top nine.
Given he's the focus every week, it should be noted Dale Junior's fifth was an especially solid bounce back after a dismal effort at Talladega, and it's his fourth top-seven finish in his last six outings.
It was a more mixed bag for Stewart-Haas as Tony and Kurt Busch had another forgettable night while the shocker of the night was Danica Patrick's seventh.
Continuing to fall back are the RCR Chevrolets, with Ryan Newman salvaging 11th as his season continues to be unimpressive while Paul Menard had a Menard-esque night a lap down and Austin Dillon keeps losing the rookie race to Kyle Larson.
Richard Petty's team on the rise - Though he lost seventh at the end to Danica Patrick, Aric Almirola was very solid all night en route to eighth in Petty's #43. His third top-ten of the year, it also gave Petty's organization its fifth top-ten (three of them top-fives) between Almirola and Marcos Ambrose. The nit to pick is the Petty cars need to go for the lead harder, especially in the restrictor plate races; overall, though, it's no longer implausible to expect a win for The King.
Pal Joey - If you thought there might be a chance Joey Logano could slide a bit down the Penske totem pole, it's getting more and more obvious that won't happen after leading 63 laps at Kansas on top of his great sidedraft fight with Kyle Busch in the Truck 250 the night before, and steadily showing he's for real after all - and I doubt anyone had that in the office pool the previous five seasons watching him. One has to see if Brad Keselowski can get anything going again with a mediocre 13th at Kansas and the wound still raw from his Ernie Irvan imitation at Talladega.
Speaking of which.......... - Keselowski was asked about that Talladega gaffe before the Kansas race and he answered, "I wasn't ready to give up." One has mixed feelings here - racing insane when six laps down is not smart and we all saw what resulted. Yet Keselowski's go-for-the-win approach is fundamentally the right one - especially in contrast to Junior quitting on the win in that same Talladega race.
And so the month of May marches toward Ten Days Of Bruton Smith at Charlotte as well as an Indianapolis 500 where the competitive expectations have now hit 68 lead changes based on 2013's running.
Thursday, May 08, 2014
Remembering The Real Scandal Of 1973
As Trey Gowdy goes after Obama et al for lying about Benghazi, a reminder of how Democrats stood in the way of the truth in 1973.
Wednesday, May 07, 2014
Debunking Core Minimum Wage Mythology
Joe Biden made a ridiculous claim about minimum wage - that it helped end a Great Depression it in fact aggravated - which of course is what always happens when government imposes price controls, which is what minimum wage actually is. Disappointingly Mitt Romney has missed the point here as well.
Before the Depression, wages dropped when the economy dipped - then rose again as the economy improved. Because the market is a two-way street, not a one-way street Democrats keep kidding themselves about.
Before the Depression, wages dropped when the economy dipped - then rose again as the economy improved. Because the market is a two-way street, not a one-way street Democrats keep kidding themselves about.
Tuesday, May 06, 2014
Some Questions Post-Talladega and Pre-Kansas
With the Aarons 312 and 499 weekend at Talladega wrapped up NASCAR shuffles to Kansas for the Trucks and Cup cars. In this interregnum between the Winston 500 and the Kansas 400, some questions worth asking -
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Is the season now seeing disincentive to win? - Dale Junior's acknowledgement after the Winston 500 that the reward of going for the win was not worth the risk has several angles - one of which was his 2012 crash where he suffered a concussion as well as "I've been in too many late-race wrecks"; he also noted "We already got a win."
The striking number of winners so far this season may continue this weekend, but overlooked has been that we're starting to see the disincentive to win that Brian France's Chase-oriented points seeding was bound to produce. The emphasis on winning has received the publicity, and overlooked has been that this emphasis is solely in the context of the Chase.
It is impossible to see a scenario where in a non-Chase points format a greater emphasis on winning would not see Junior or anyone else race harder. Incentive to win doesn't grow when the true emphasis remains on a notional playoff lock.
Will Ford and Toyota start surging to legitimately challenge Chevrolet? - We can legitimately claim yes here. Before the Talladega race Ford had won four of the previous seven races and Joe Gibbs' Toyota won at Fontana before Hamlin's Talladega triumph. The Chevy program has started to look overrated between Hendrick Motorsports struggles, decidely poor showings for RCR, and the up-and-down showings of Stewart-Haas Racing.
It would appear Joey Logano and the JGR Toyotas are the ones to topple Chevrolet going forward - a Toyota darkhorse, though, may be the tandem of Brian Vickers and Clint Bowyer, who've quietly put up respectable runs, enough that Bowyer, crew chief Brian Pattie, and their sponsor re-upped with Michael Waltrip for three additional seasons past 2014.
Speaking of Logano, what's up with Brad Keselowski? - Joey Logano has clearly usurped Keselowski as Penske Racing's top dog and the way Keselowski raced everyone at Talladega - it was Ernie Irvan-esque - combined with the collapse of his season after winning Vegas (just one finish higher than 14th in the last seven races) one has to wonder if it is getting to him. He's generally run well at Kansas, and if he can get back into contention for the season he needs to strike at Kansas.
Has the rookie race realistically been decided already? - Kyle Larson keeps making the case that it has. It's obvious Austin Dillon is missing something as a racer and it's also obvious Larson is better than a lot of us thought he was.
What drivers who went to different teams may be on the chopping block down the road? - The one that comes to mind for me is Ryan Newman at RCR. He's managed four top tens so far but has shown little in the way of muscle doing so, and bailing out on the lead draft at Talladega and then crashing into Carl Edwards late in the race showed a cowardice in his racing that nobody should be happy with.
So it goes as the sport enters Kansas.
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Is the season now seeing disincentive to win? - Dale Junior's acknowledgement after the Winston 500 that the reward of going for the win was not worth the risk has several angles - one of which was his 2012 crash where he suffered a concussion as well as "I've been in too many late-race wrecks"; he also noted "We already got a win."
The striking number of winners so far this season may continue this weekend, but overlooked has been that we're starting to see the disincentive to win that Brian France's Chase-oriented points seeding was bound to produce. The emphasis on winning has received the publicity, and overlooked has been that this emphasis is solely in the context of the Chase.
It is impossible to see a scenario where in a non-Chase points format a greater emphasis on winning would not see Junior or anyone else race harder. Incentive to win doesn't grow when the true emphasis remains on a notional playoff lock.
Will Ford and Toyota start surging to legitimately challenge Chevrolet? - We can legitimately claim yes here. Before the Talladega race Ford had won four of the previous seven races and Joe Gibbs' Toyota won at Fontana before Hamlin's Talladega triumph. The Chevy program has started to look overrated between Hendrick Motorsports struggles, decidely poor showings for RCR, and the up-and-down showings of Stewart-Haas Racing.
It would appear Joey Logano and the JGR Toyotas are the ones to topple Chevrolet going forward - a Toyota darkhorse, though, may be the tandem of Brian Vickers and Clint Bowyer, who've quietly put up respectable runs, enough that Bowyer, crew chief Brian Pattie, and their sponsor re-upped with Michael Waltrip for three additional seasons past 2014.
Speaking of Logano, what's up with Brad Keselowski? - Joey Logano has clearly usurped Keselowski as Penske Racing's top dog and the way Keselowski raced everyone at Talladega - it was Ernie Irvan-esque - combined with the collapse of his season after winning Vegas (just one finish higher than 14th in the last seven races) one has to wonder if it is getting to him. He's generally run well at Kansas, and if he can get back into contention for the season he needs to strike at Kansas.
Has the rookie race realistically been decided already? - Kyle Larson keeps making the case that it has. It's obvious Austin Dillon is missing something as a racer and it's also obvious Larson is better than a lot of us thought he was.
What drivers who went to different teams may be on the chopping block down the road? - The one that comes to mind for me is Ryan Newman at RCR. He's managed four top tens so far but has shown little in the way of muscle doing so, and bailing out on the lead draft at Talladega and then crashing into Carl Edwards late in the race showed a cowardice in his racing that nobody should be happy with.
So it goes as the sport enters Kansas.
Monday, May 05, 2014
Sunday, May 04, 2014
2014 Winston 500 Ten Takes
The 2014 Aarons Talladega weekend has come and gone and proven itself again a strong competitive endeavor. The weekend sees ten takeaways to digest -
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1 - Restrictor plate racing is still the best racing - The FOX Sports website did a poll on what NASCAR should have more of - superspeedways or short tracks. I can confidently say the popular view is short tracks even though the objective view is superspeedways, as demonstrated yet again here at Talladega. No short track can produce so high a level of competition up front as the plate tracks have produced. The irony is that this season so far has produced very good races at all three types of tracks - the two plate races were great, Fontana was very good, and Martinsville was eye-openingly competitive.
2 - A mediocre Talladega is still better than others, yet.... - The 2014 Winston 500 saw 48 lead changes, the most for this race since 2011, yet as terrific as the racing was, it can still be better. "It's so hard to pass..." re-entered the postrace conversation and it makes further nonsense of NASCAR's recent rules to kill push-drafting. It bears repeating how 2013's Talladega Truck 250 showed how tandem drafting has been evolving back toward conventional pack drafting but with that extra power to pass that will always be the strongest such ever seen in racing. It would not have hurt anyone if the Busch and Winston Cup races were able to see cars push-draft all the way around and thus move the top line forward faster and stronger - it also, for Junior fans, have allowed him to make a run for the win at the end; we will discuss that below......
3 - Brad Keselowski's fall from grace - It's been said numerous times that Joey Logano has usurped Brad Keselowski as Penske Racing's top dog; one wonders about that watching Keselowski race like Ernie Irvan in this race; laps down after a tap from Little Miss Danica left him (and several others) with damage, he nonetheless raced like hell and crowded the top ten until he lost it and took others with him - ironically including Joey Logano. Now Keselowski has been flashy but this strikes me as very odd.
4 - Chevrolet gets a comeuppance - Normally Chevrolets dominate Talladega; not this time, as Fords and Toyotas were the strongest of the lot pretty much all day. Denny Hamlin's win topped a top-four near-monopoly by Toyota and capped a weekend sweep by Joe Gibbs Racing after Elliott Sadler's Aarons 312 win Saturday.
5 - The rookie race spreads out more - Austin Dillon's rookie run from the Daytona 500 pole has been pretty much downhill from there, as Kyle Larson outclassed him again.
6 - There's been a Michael Waltrip sighting - MWR finished third and fourth and Brian Vickers had a legitimate shot at the win; it's the first time seemingly all season we've seen any muscle out of MWR, and even with a third place Clint Bowyer didn't look particularly impressive.
7 - Junior and Hendrick's curious fall - Kasey Kahne salvaged a top-ten for Hendrick Motorsports and that was pretty much all to have for that team, as Junior never looked up to challenging for anything - though he led 26 laps he lost the draft twice late in the race - and both Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon crashed out. Though the Hendrick fleet has a combined twelve top-fives so far, the muscle of yore hasn't been there since Daytona.
And here, Junior's postrace comment to the effect that "the reward wasn't worth the risk" is flabbergasting. Trying to win is not worth it is an insult to competition in general and racing in particular, and signals there is something fundamentally wrong with Junior as a racer now.
8 - When Stewart-Haas's guys are good they run good - And when they're bad they don't. Simplistic a summary perhaps, yet watching Danica Patrick lead six laps and then finish 22nd with pretty much a whimper one cannot help but think this way. Kevin Harvick remains the organization's point car while the rest of the fleet limps in his wake - especially Smoke, who looked like he didn't even want to be there at Talladega.
9 - Break up the Underdogs! - Justin Allgaier finished 27th and his last-lap wreck ended the race under caution. Yet for a strong moment it appeared Allgaier might top David Ragan's spectacular win from last year as he stormed up the extreme high side for the lead. There was also a superb effort from AJ Allmendinger in Brad Daugherty's Chevrolet and a commendable if overlooked effort from Landon Cassill in Joe Falk's #40. Richard Petty's #43 of Aric Almirola looked like junk for most of the race yet drafted into the top fifteen - commendable yet like the race itself a frustrating reminder that it should be a lot better than that.
10 - It's time to get rid of Barney Hall - MRN, it's time to give up on Barney Hall. Yes, he's been a NASCAR icon forever, but it gets more and more embarrassing listening as he tries to recover a fastball that disappeared from him long ago.
And so the first Talladega weekend has wrapped and Kansas awaits. It's noteworthy that in 2013 Kansas saw racing strikingly similar to Talladega in the Trucks and Busch Series - one hopes they and the Cup cars get that kind of effect this time around.
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1 - Restrictor plate racing is still the best racing - The FOX Sports website did a poll on what NASCAR should have more of - superspeedways or short tracks. I can confidently say the popular view is short tracks even though the objective view is superspeedways, as demonstrated yet again here at Talladega. No short track can produce so high a level of competition up front as the plate tracks have produced. The irony is that this season so far has produced very good races at all three types of tracks - the two plate races were great, Fontana was very good, and Martinsville was eye-openingly competitive.
2 - A mediocre Talladega is still better than others, yet.... - The 2014 Winston 500 saw 48 lead changes, the most for this race since 2011, yet as terrific as the racing was, it can still be better. "It's so hard to pass..." re-entered the postrace conversation and it makes further nonsense of NASCAR's recent rules to kill push-drafting. It bears repeating how 2013's Talladega Truck 250 showed how tandem drafting has been evolving back toward conventional pack drafting but with that extra power to pass that will always be the strongest such ever seen in racing. It would not have hurt anyone if the Busch and Winston Cup races were able to see cars push-draft all the way around and thus move the top line forward faster and stronger - it also, for Junior fans, have allowed him to make a run for the win at the end; we will discuss that below......
3 - Brad Keselowski's fall from grace - It's been said numerous times that Joey Logano has usurped Brad Keselowski as Penske Racing's top dog; one wonders about that watching Keselowski race like Ernie Irvan in this race; laps down after a tap from Little Miss Danica left him (and several others) with damage, he nonetheless raced like hell and crowded the top ten until he lost it and took others with him - ironically including Joey Logano. Now Keselowski has been flashy but this strikes me as very odd.
4 - Chevrolet gets a comeuppance - Normally Chevrolets dominate Talladega; not this time, as Fords and Toyotas were the strongest of the lot pretty much all day. Denny Hamlin's win topped a top-four near-monopoly by Toyota and capped a weekend sweep by Joe Gibbs Racing after Elliott Sadler's Aarons 312 win Saturday.
5 - The rookie race spreads out more - Austin Dillon's rookie run from the Daytona 500 pole has been pretty much downhill from there, as Kyle Larson outclassed him again.
6 - There's been a Michael Waltrip sighting - MWR finished third and fourth and Brian Vickers had a legitimate shot at the win; it's the first time seemingly all season we've seen any muscle out of MWR, and even with a third place Clint Bowyer didn't look particularly impressive.
7 - Junior and Hendrick's curious fall - Kasey Kahne salvaged a top-ten for Hendrick Motorsports and that was pretty much all to have for that team, as Junior never looked up to challenging for anything - though he led 26 laps he lost the draft twice late in the race - and both Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon crashed out. Though the Hendrick fleet has a combined twelve top-fives so far, the muscle of yore hasn't been there since Daytona.
And here, Junior's postrace comment to the effect that "the reward wasn't worth the risk" is flabbergasting. Trying to win is not worth it is an insult to competition in general and racing in particular, and signals there is something fundamentally wrong with Junior as a racer now.
8 - When Stewart-Haas's guys are good they run good - And when they're bad they don't. Simplistic a summary perhaps, yet watching Danica Patrick lead six laps and then finish 22nd with pretty much a whimper one cannot help but think this way. Kevin Harvick remains the organization's point car while the rest of the fleet limps in his wake - especially Smoke, who looked like he didn't even want to be there at Talladega.
9 - Break up the Underdogs! - Justin Allgaier finished 27th and his last-lap wreck ended the race under caution. Yet for a strong moment it appeared Allgaier might top David Ragan's spectacular win from last year as he stormed up the extreme high side for the lead. There was also a superb effort from AJ Allmendinger in Brad Daugherty's Chevrolet and a commendable if overlooked effort from Landon Cassill in Joe Falk's #40. Richard Petty's #43 of Aric Almirola looked like junk for most of the race yet drafted into the top fifteen - commendable yet like the race itself a frustrating reminder that it should be a lot better than that.
10 - It's time to get rid of Barney Hall - MRN, it's time to give up on Barney Hall. Yes, he's been a NASCAR icon forever, but it gets more and more embarrassing listening as he tries to recover a fastball that disappeared from him long ago.
And so the first Talladega weekend has wrapped and Kansas awaits. It's noteworthy that in 2013 Kansas saw racing strikingly similar to Talladega in the Trucks and Busch Series - one hopes they and the Cup cars get that kind of effect this time around.
Saturday, May 03, 2014
Krauthammer On Obama At His Worst
Charles Krauthammer is a gem of an analyst and he nicely skewers Obama's self-pitying response this past week to his foreign policy failure.
Thursday, May 01, 2014
The Hurricane Carter Fraud
Ruben "Hurricane" Carter was a boxer often described as wrongly convicted of a murder. The problem is the actual facts of the story do not support Hurricane Carter.
Making It Worse: Obama’s Middle East
The Economist inaccurately asserted in 2008 that "George W. Bush has presided over the most catastrophic collapse in America's reputation since the second world war." It was not an uncommon viewpoint, certainly, but inaccurate nonetheless, for W had presided over the destruction of the strongest Islamo-Arab imperial state and replaced it with a democracy stronger than its critics wanted to suppose. What Barack Obama has done is pretend the Economist's assertion was in any way accurate, and the result is that American victory was thrown away.
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