The Mason-Dixon 400 is up, the second concrete skating rink race of the Winston Cup season. Dover Downs is bigger than Bristol but only slightly less hard on drivers, even when they're healthy. It's "only" 400 miles, which is a test for certain, although lacking the same level of toughness and sense of accomplishment that Dover's 500-milers of the past always held. One wishes Dover would be allowed to return its races to 500 miles, since those races were always a better test of man and machine than the cheaper 400 miles of today.
As for what to expect this time around, there will likely be a lot of yellows, although unlike Bristol, Dover is known for lengthy green flag periods; indeed, Dover is a track where periodically you don't know what you'll get. A new tire brought in for this race showed promise in the BGN and Truck events, but the concrete surface has made side by side racing essentially impossible.
On the Chevrolet side Jimmie Johnson, a former winner here, starts in the bottom three after spinning on his qualifying lap; he has to share a pit stall with Scott Wimmer, but given his status as Hendrick Motorsports' point man, Johnson is almost certain to get the lead and finish in the top five; a top ten will be something of a disappointing finish for him right now. Jeff Gordon is less of a threat for the win but isn't at the level to dismiss his chances.
The other familiar Chevrolets are likely contention candidates - Kevin Harvick at RCR (although Jeff Burton is a good wildcard choice after his win in the BGN race), and Dale Earnhardt Jr. The one question mark is Ricky Rudd, driving in relief of Tony Stewart at JGR, and driving a Chevrolet for the first time since the 1993 Dixie 500 at Atlanta - irony alert: after that race he fanged General Motors and for all practical purposes vowed never to race GM again; he thus spent the 1994-2005 period exclusively in Fords and famously fanged about the Monte Carlo after the 1995 World 600, "I don't know how to compare it, we're racing a completely different class of automobile with downforce. It's like the IMSA cars with ground effects cars and non-ground effects cars."
Rudd, having sat out half the year, is something of an unknown although he traditionally gets around Dover well. Drivers on part-time schedules simply haven't done well the last few years, shown by sub-mediocre efforts this season by Terry Labonte and Bill Elliott, so Rudd is an unknown here.
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On the Ford side it's all Roush all the time. You can pretty much throw out chances for Robert Yates and the Wood Brothers; Ken Schrader simply isn't racing and the Yates effort looks in disarray. The one question for the Roushketeers is whether Jamie McMurray can get some kind of consistency going after his strong effort at Charlotte.
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Over at Dodge the favorite has to be Bristol winner Kurt Busch. Ryan Newman may be on the pole and has won here before, but his inconsitency continues to baffle railbirds, so for Penske Racing the one to watch is Busch.
Fresh off the 600, Kasey Kahne wants to continue on a hot streak and is clearly the best Dodge. Jeremy Mayfield is on the front row but his terrible season has been such that even when he wins, he loses, shown by his points penalty after a strong effort at Charlotte.
The one possible wildcard from the Dodge camp is Bobby Labonte, fifth at Bristol and a former Dover winner. The recent string of night races didn't go well for Labonte after a strong eighth at Phoenix, so getting back to daylight and its more consistent handling landscape may be what he needs for now.
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The Monster Mile has long lived up to that reputation and remains a stout test of driver and racecar.
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