So now the 2017 playoffs are upon us and the wildcard round offers the most interesting slate in years as the Titans, Jaguars, and Bills all return to the playoffs after lengthy absences. The Bills drought is of course the longest, dating to the 1999 season, while the Jaguars last made the playoffs in 2007 and the Titans in 2008, while the Titans look for their first win since Steve McNair upset the Ravens in 2003.
The Buffalo Bills look for their first playoff win since 1995 when they owned Don Shula and Dan Marino.
The Bills bring some swag into this playoffs after this brawl in the season finale at Miami.
A quick comment on the slate of NFL coach firings - the most fascinating and bizarre is the story that Jon Gruden will get not only the head coaching job with the Raiders but also part-ownership. With the firing of Jack Del Rio that rumor becomes more credible - with Mark Davis reportedly in heavy debt - a figure indicated by Boomer Esiason is $125 million - it makes sense to bring in ownership help, plus it's a selling point for the move to Vegas.
Titans over Chiefs - This is the matchup Andy Reid didn't want because the Titans have won six of the seven career meetings they've had with Andy Reid teams.........
Tennessee Titans vs Andy Reid teams -
2000 @ Eagles - W 15-13
2002 vs Eagles - W 27-24 2006 @ Eagles - W 31-13 2010 vs Eagles - W 37-19 2013 vs Chiefs - L 26-17 2014 @ Chiefs - W 26-10 2016 @ Chiefs - W 19-17
.....and the last time the Titans traveled to Arrowhead they clawed out a clutch win. The Titans have now beaten nine playoff contenders (the Jaguars twice this season, making ten such wins) in the eighteen wins they've clawed out the last two seasons. Mike Mularkey may still not last into 2018 with the story Titans ownership is frustrated at seeming slowness at developing Marcus Mariota (an interesting matchup here per John Glennon is when Mariota was blitzed he was deadly accurate in completions); certainly the targeting of Patriots coordinator Josh McDaniels makes sense and the Titans are a good fit, but give Mularkey credit for reestablishing a culture with accountability in the Titans locker room.
The last Rams playoff game was 2004 at the Falcons. Falcons over Rams - The Rams enter unfamiliar territory - not only the playoffs for the first time since 2004 but also a playoff game at home, and in LA. The Rams' last playoff win was at Seattle in 2004, so for the Rams this is something new, while for the Falcons it's become old hat. While not necessarily as good as in 2016 the Falcons enter with momentum, and Matt Ryan is unbeaten against the Rams - but then this is not the same old Rams.
The only other playoff meeting between the Bills and Jaguars was Jacksonville's first ever playoff game.
The last time the Jaguars hosted a playoff game against someone other than the Patriots or Titans, it went swimmingly - and against another AFC East team Jaguars over Bills - Tom Coughlin's rebuild of the Jaguars has paid off in their first division title of the AFC South era and their first division title since the AFC Central. They face a Bills team that played well enough to make it but hasn't shown they've really taken the next step. A key matchup - per John Glennon, when Blake Bortles was blitzed, he was abysmal. So this game could be closer than the reputations of the two teams may suggest.
Where was this out of the Buccaneers all season? Maybe being home dogs helped.
Panthers over Saints - Beating one team three times in a season is rare, and New Orleans' loss to the Bucs when they had to win to secure the NFC South (Atlanta's win over Carolina backed the Saints into the division title) raises a red flag; the Saints have gone just 3-3 entering the playoffs even with the season sweep of the Panthers, who won four of their last six and committed fewer turnovers in that span than the Saints. The comeback of both teams has been remarkable, New Orleans from going 7-9 four of the last five seasons and Carolina from slumping to 6-10 in 2016. The memory of back-to-back 41-38 games hangs over this matchup.
The NFL's 2017 season is now hitting the stretch for the playoffs, and that pressure has shown.
The meltdown of Kansas City's season was personified when Marcus Peters threw a referee's flag into the grandstands. The switch of playcalling on offense by the Chiefs helped in that they scored 31 points in one of the games of the year..............
................but Alex Smith's inability to seize control to win the game showed again, and suddenly San Diego is in position to steal the division.
If that scenario sounds familiar, it is, albeit the last time San Diego helped cost the Chiefs the AFC West was 2013 in the immortal Seyi Ajirotutu game.
Here are the top seeds in the AFC -
North - Steelers - bye East - Patriots - bye
South - Titans West - Chiefs
WC1 - Jaguars WC2 - Ravens
Remaining teams at .500 - Chargers Bills Raiders
While in the NFC - North - Vikings - bye East - Eagles - bye
West - Rams South - Saints
WC1 - Seahawks WC2 - Panthers Remaining teams .500 or better - Falcons Lions Packers Cowboys
So realistically we have four spots in the AFC with seven teams in contest, and three in the NFC with five teams in contest. Every Seahawk win knocks the Packers further and further away from a playoff spot while San Diego is the big challenger to the faltering Chiefs and the South is a Titans-Jaguars showdown that may come down to Week 17; and the way both teams are playing both look like playoff locks.
So the games remaining mean a lot to a number of teams -
Falcons over Saints - The Falcons are fighting for their playoff lives and need to just tie the Seahawks in standings with the head-to-head tiebreaker as their trump. This rivalry has been 5-5 the last five seasons with a 3-2 home record for the Falcons in that span. The Saints with their sweep of the Panthers - presently ahead of the Falcons in playoff seedings - all but have the division.
Bills over Colts - The Colts now have nothing to play for in a season that resembles 1997 all over again. The Bills, though, aren't in that much better shape with Tyrod Taylor showing why he was benched even before getting hurt against the Patriots.
Vikings over Panthers - The Vikings, for the moment the top seed in the NFC, more and more look like a machine and the Panthers loss at New Orleans ended any realistic hope of the division.
Packers over Browns - 0-16 is now in play for the Browns and the Packers are actually in a playoff race. The failure of the Browns as an organization just gets worse and worse, with no hope in sight - and the rumor of recruiting of Peyton Manning to take over the team will only intensify.
Chiefs over Raiders - The Chiefs have faltered badly, but the Raiders are 6-6 for a reason and the Chiefs showed improvement, especially on offense; we think this will help them here.
Forty-Niners over Texans - Jimmy Garoppolo's debut game wasn't much to write home about but it was a win, and now Garoppolo gets a Texans team whose collapse has gone unnoticed with the eye-popping fall of the Chiefs.
Bengals over Bears - The Bears blew it against the Niners and Mitchell Trubisky's rookie season slogs onward toward a forgettable end. The Bengals come off the ugliest loss in years, both in terms of on-field play and also in on-field violence.
Lions over Buccaneers - The Bucs put up a whale of a fight at Green Bay and it wasn't enough. Detroit failed yet again against a quality team and the Lions' playoff chances are gone. Taking on a team with an outright losing record is what the Lions need here; an injured thumb is not what Matthew Stafford needed.
Jaguars over Seahawks - Upending the NFC's top seed shows the Seahawks are racing to the playoffs, and they've won nine of their last eleven games against AFC teams. But this is not the Jaguars team that was easy pickings for the last four years; this is a solid outfit that's got the playoffs in sight and the last time the Seahawks traveled east to the AFC South it ended ugly.
Chargers over Redskins - San Diego has momentum, the Redskins don't. Suddenly Philip Rivers is playing like the franchise power he's long been, while Kirk Cousins looks like a petulant child.
Titans over Cardinals - The Titans have secured back-to-back seasons .500 or better for the first time since the 2006-09 period where they won 39 games. Their last two times against the Cardinals, oddly, were in Tennessee and both were stunning finishes in Vince Young's game-winning touchdown in 2009 and Ryan Fitzpatrick's overtime INT after erasing a 34-17 gap in 2013. Blaine Gabbert has one career game against the Titans and it was a loss. The Cards' playoff chances are unrealistic.
NY Jets over Broncos - History has been stood on its head in Denver - this is the 20th anniversary of the Broncos' stunning first Superbowl win, and on this anniversary the Broncos have collapsed into irrelevance. The Jets still have a slim playoff shot and face a Broncos team that has been outscored 421 to 108 since their bye week.
Rams over Eagles - The Eagles are shellshocked after a nowhere performance at Seattle and their West Coast swing goes to LA, with a playoff bye now possible for the Rams.
Cowboys over NY Giants - Peter Hermann and Mariska Hargitay may be hired as NY Giants coaches at this rate; Ben McAdoo certainly appears dead now, though the benching of Eli Manning was overdue after years of mediocrity and the angry sentiment for him is annoying. The Cowboys' playoff hopes are slim.
Ravens over Steelers - The Ravens have the playoffs in their sights and suddenly look strong enough to upend the Steelers, winners of the last two meetings but losers of nine of the last fourteen.
Patriots over Dolphins - The Patriots are headlong toward the top seed again and the Dolphins are playing out the string. Ding-Dong Suh hit Brady late several times the previous meeting, a rarity given he never even gets to Brady traditionally. The suspension of Gronkowski is surprising given his lack of retaliatory antics in the past.
The fourth game of the 2017 preseason has yet to be played as of this writing but by now the nitty gritty of preparing for Week One of the NFL season is all but underway. With that, predictions for Week One will be in short order, so we present perhaps the first such batch -
Patriots over Chiefs - Predictions by fans and some media of a 19-0 season began with the free agent acquisitions made by the Patriots; Bill Belichick never buys into such predictions, and the Patriots have even less reason to feel they will go unbeaten now. Julian Edelman's season-ending injury is the one getting the most attention, but the mediocre performance of the line of scrimmage defense already led to the release of Kony Ealy - among the free agent flameouts of the Belichick era this may be the most graphic given Ealy was already in Belichick's doghouse when camp started - and the Patriots' depth at the line of scrimmage already looks questionable. Malcolm Butler also is living down to a media report proclaiming him the most overrated player on the Patriots roster.
And yet the Edelman injury is a blessing in disguise - Brady periodically lapses into forcing the ball to one guy at the expense of everyone else (illustrated in the Football Life episode on Belichick where he laments the lack of receiver depth to his staff before 2009's loss at the NY Jets, and also shown in Brady's dismal performance in the infamous 2014 game at Kansas City) and when the Falcons took away Edelman in the Superbowl it forced Brady to spread the ball more and thus unclog the passing game. James White, Rex Burkhead, Dion Lewis, and Danny Amendola will see more catches and the Patriots may see Austin Carr on the roster to go with Brandin Cooks (curiously quiet in preseason) and Gronkowski; Dwayne Allen may be the odd man out after a nonexistent preseason.
For the Chiefs the season-ending injury to Spencer Ware is more concerning given the Chiefs' lesser depth compared to the Patriots. The Patriots also hold the overall edge against Andy Reid, 5-2, and the Chiefs are clearly waiting for Patrick Mahones to develop, so Alex Smith can see his days numbered, a disadvantageous situation heading into Foxboro.
Bills over NY Jets - The new game in the NFL is Suck For Sam - as in USC quarterback Sam Darnold. Buffalo and the Jets have hemorrhaged veteran personnel - Anquan Boldin retired just two weeks into Bills camp - and for the Jets the call to tank the season has been an open story. The Bills have changed coaches, so there is more reason to establish some kind of positive momentum than is the case with the Jets, a team forever haunted by history - fifty years ago Joe Namath became the first quarterback to reach 4,000 passing yards and also authored the Jets' first ever winning season; twenty years ago the Jets paid a king's ransom for Bill Parcells, while Tennessee quarterback Peyton Manning inquired whether the Jets were interested in drafting him; when they declined Peyton stayed at Tennessee for one more year and got drafted by the Indianapolis Colts - and history changed.
The present Jets have to start Josh McCown by default as Bryce Petty despite a huge output in the preseason game against the Jets has not proven he warrants being starter, and Christian Hackenberg looks more and more like a flat-out failure. So Suck For Sam gets underway.
Texans over Jaguars - Even before the hurricane ravaged the Houston area and thus has put a massive damper on the Texans' season going in, Houston's team hasn't looked ready for prime time with either Tom Savage or Deshaun Watson. Watson in particular looks like a bad quarterback, relying on running, throwing on the run, showing no small-ball technique, reading of defense, or any of the techniques that real quarterbacks master to become winners. Houston's defense is ranked very well but is certainly beatable, if not even overrated, and Bill O'Brien has yet to prove he can do better than 9-7 entering his fourth season as Texans head coach.
The Jaguars, though, are in worse shape and may also be in the Suck For Sam sweepstakes. Blake Bortles' mechanics problems are still there, his quarterbacking acumen hasn't shown much improvement if any, and the offensive line has been a mess. Tom Coughlin is in the first year of his return to Jacksonville, now as de facto GM, and the mess he's inherited is such that rebuilding will take years, this after the many years spent trying to rebuild from the wreckage of the Blaine Gabbert failure.
Bengals over Ravens - The Bengals come into 2017 looking no better than the six-win flop of 2016. Vontaze Burfict faces another suspension for another questionable hit, this one on Anthony Sherman of the Chiefs, and Andy Dalton has looked like a quarterback who plateaued and is now beginning to decline. Dalton did show some moxie in the game against the Redskins, and he faces a Ravens team he has bested seven of the last nine meetings and whose own quarterback, Joe Flacco, has battled knee concerns all camp. John Harbaugh has said he will start this game, but one has to feel a lack of confidence in Flacco after going 13-19 since losing the 2014 divisional playoff at New England.
Raiders over Titans - The Raiders have looked noticeably sharper in preseason than the Titans, who scored just ten combined points in losses to the Jets and Bears; Alex Tanney won no confidence with a poor performance against the Chiefs. The game against the Bears with multiple penalties, an ejection, and just one touchdown was embarrassing, though lack of receiver depth with numerous veteran guys held out didn't help anything.
With that the Titans should be a lot better than this - they did show fight in the game against the Panthers after the three-point embarrassment at the Jets - and this game should be a lot closer, facing a Raiders team that won twelve games last year and returning their quarterback of the future in Derek Carr while ex-Seahawk Marshawn Lynch showed a little of his old muscle in preseason; whether it proves sustainable remains to be seen.
Eagles over Redskins - The Redskins looked like the dysfunctional mess they've been almost since the end of the first Joe Gibbs era in the off-season and the controversy over Kirk Cousins' contract will only get worse now. They face an Eagles team that suddenly looks improved over 2016.
Buccaneers over Dolphins - The injury that ended Ryan Tannehill's season led to the unexpected signing of the weak Jay Cutler, who played decently under Adam Gase in Chicago, but it is impossible to take Jay Cutler that seriously, especially facing an improving Bucs team, though preseason has been a little erratic.
Falcons over Bears - Of the six losses for the Falcons in 2016, curiously four of them were home losses - the Superbowl included as the Falcons were the designated home team - so going to Chicago would seem easier to start the season. The Bears, though, for the first time in awhile have reason to believe there will be improvement, though Mitchell Trubinsky likely won't see any action outside of mop-up duty later in the season. Given the relative porousness of the Falcons defense the Bears should out up some points here.
Steelers over Browns - DeShone Kizer has been designated the starter for the Browns - thus presumably ending the Brock Osweiler era. The Steelers, though, enter with Ben Roethlisberger not looking committed to the game as much as in the past and with the division looking weaker than in recent seasons.
Lions over Cardinals - Matthew Stafford's league-record extension will make the quarterback market crazier - and also whet appetites for more such contracts despite the top-heaviness of such an approach. Armed with this new contract Stafford takes on a mediocre Cardinals team that still has Carson Palmer and whose only road wins last year were against all three of their division foes. Stafford's improvement as a quarterback has been noted by the varied experts as he continues switching away from the Calvin Johnson bomb squader to the small-ball quarterback that is the kind that wins Superbowls. His abysmal performance against quality opponents, though, showed up again in the Patriots game, where Jake Rudock led the comeback from down 24-0. Rudock - the Patriots radio broadcast cleverly noted his status as a sixth-round draft pick from Michigan - won't usurp Stafford's job, but actually beating good teams is a priority for the 2009 first rounder.
Colts over Rams - The Colts are a mess, and so are the Rams, but the Colts just got better with the trade for Jacoby Brissett. With Andrew Luck presumably out until until the Colts' home game against the Jaguars it seems a no-brainer Brissett will start - his game against the NY Giants showed genuine growth as a quarterback, while the Rams are stuck with Jared Goff, who looks like a complete failure of a quarterback.
Seahawks over Packers - Surprisingly the Seahawks have exploded in preseason and look by far the most ready team in the NFC for the season. They travel to a Packers team that has bested them the last few meetings, but which looked rather sluggish in their game at Denver. The Seahawks did regress as a road team in 2016, but in Russell Wilson the Hawks have the better quarterback.
Panthers over 49ers - The John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan era begins after a surprisingly competitive preseason, though expecting major improvement right away is too much to ask. Suck For Sam may be a non-option here, though all the Niners have is Brian Hoyer as they take on a Panthers team smarting from 2016's collapse.
NY Giants over Cowboys - So far in preseason the loss of Zeke Elliott to league suspension - though Fort Worth Star-Telegram reportage suggested the accusation against Elliott may not in fact be truthful - appears not to be in the Cowboys favor; even with Elliott the Cowboys have lost three straight to the Giants in the Joyful Heart Curse and the Cowboys didn't acquit themselves particularly well against the Raiders. Injury to Odell Beckham Jr. in preseason may hamper the Giants offense.
Vikings over Saints - Neither team has shown much in preseason; the Vikings host this game and the Saints have been a 7-9 team four of the last five seasons; the can still put up offense but Drew Brees has not put up clutch wins lately.
Broncos over Chargers - The Broncos are stuck with Trevor Siemian, who has shown no growth as a quarterback, but they face a Chargers team with no discernable LA audience and which has played poorly throughout the preseason, even in a win over the lowly Rams. Thirty years ago Chargers legends Dan Fouts and Kellen Winslow retired after San Diego won eight straight and lost the remainder of the season. Twenty years ago the Chargers fell to 3-13 and wound up with the worst draft pick in history; to think they may be no better off now than in 1997 is hair-pulling for Charger fans.
The debate has now been won by the New England Patriots as their comeback win in Superbowl LI - the largest in the game's history, the third-largest comeback win in a playoff game in NFL history - cemented Tom Brady as the greatest quarterback ever and the Patriots as the greatest team of all time.
Brady throws 50 passes and wins again - A curiously overlooked angle going in was what would happen if the Falcons forced Brady to throw over fifty passes - Brady won his 18th game when throwing over fifty; he is the only quarterback in NFL history to post a winning record - and it is a mind-blowing 18-7 - when having to throw more than fifty passes; Warren Moon (5-5) in NFL history is the only other quarterback who has a non-losing record when throwing at least fifty. It plays into Brady's hands when he has to throw more than fifty passes.
Roger Goodell is the most petulant idiot to ever be placed in charge of a major sports sanctioning body - Goodell's Wednesday presser was all about his petulant hatred of the New England Patriots and was filled with the lawyerese evasions that characterize a liar. Contrast this with former commissioner Paul Tagliabue, who acknowledged he should have had the league be more concerned about player concussions than he did.
Goodell's refusal to visit Gillette Stadium comes from his inability to handle being held accountable, and it showed when pressed about it by reporters, not all of the hostile ones being New England reporters. That indicates the national press is slowly turning more and more against Goodell, and they should.
How will Matt Ryan react in 2017? - Ryan was almost flawless in the first 37 or so minutes but once the Patriots began the comeback Ryan regressed back to the playoff failure that had permeated his 2008-12 period. The Falcons O-line that had so controlled things for so long then collapsed on him and it added into utter failure of an offense that had scored 28 points and led by 25 points. Ryan faces the Patriots in Foxboro in 2017 and it seems a certainly Week One's banner celebration will precede a game against the Falcons.
Quarterbacking is what wins championships yet again - The Falcons defense came to play - and it lost. The Patriots defense was utterly helpless - made worse by Brady's pick-six - until Tom Brady rescued it; in all seven Brady Superbowls the defense was defeated and then rescued by Brady; twice the defense then failed again, five times Brady finished the mission.
Defense has never won a championship - not the 1960s Packers, not the 2000 Ravens, not the Steeler Curtain, none of them. It has been quarterbacking that wins championships.
What is it where the Superbowl sees the catches that are never repeated anywhere else? - David Tyree, Jermaine Kearse, and now Julian Edelman.
Why didn't the Falcons run the ball more in the second half? - Because as the play by play sheet indicates when they did run the ball after going up 28-3 it wasn't working.
What do the Patriots need to do down the road for 2017? - The Patriots' smurf-receiver approach certainly works, but it needs bigger guys and more of them to flesh it out - the Falcons were more of a physical downfield-type attack and the Patriots can certainly use that - for too long the receivers (especially Edelman, usually the guy Brady trusts the most) were not making plays. Malcolm Mitchell stepped up when it mattered most and Chris Hogan made several huge catches as well - not having Rob Gronkowski certainly proved a factor, until Martellus Bennett began stepping up when it mattered most.
Defensively the Patriots' zone approach too often got them burned with Falcons receivers all but uncontested where New England's smurf corps was almost always fighting Falcons defensive backs. The Falcons also for so much of the game fought and got the ball harder than Patriot receivers did until the comeback got going.
The Patriots vs the NFC South champion in a Superbowl in Houston - maybe Houston should host the Superbowl every two to three years
Will we ever see another Superbowl like this? - Probably. No one thought Superbowl XXXVIII could ever be topped, then subsequent Superbowls showed shocking competition; Superbowl XLIX was the most shocking finish ever seen and the largest comeback win in the game's history to that point, but this.....the winning quarterback suspended on false pretense by a commissioner exposed as a liar by the process, a team that had not made the game since 1998 exploding to a 28-3 lead, and then the biggest comeback in Superbowl history and the third-largest comeback in playoff history after Buffalo's 1992 win from down 32 points to the Oilers and the Colts' 2013 win over the Chiefs from down 28 points.......was unprecedented. And yet the Superbowl somehow tops itself.
So who will the Patriots have to contend with in 2017 to repeat? - The Miami Dolphins are clearly better now and are developing into a genuine contender and Miami appears to be the only division foe the Patriots have to worry about.
In the AFC South there has been the implosion of Brock Osweiler and what amounts to the team's public admission of making a colossal mistake at signing him, though the caveat remains Osweiler was good with what amounted to a two-read offense and Bill O'Brien made him run a five-plus read offense; one wonders if O'Brien might install a more Osweiler-friendly offense for 2017 - assuming a new Texans quarterback doesn't emerge.
With Houston's struggle the Tennessee Titans, who beat five playoff teams plus the defending champion Broncos (9-7) in 2016 even with late-season injury to Marcus Mariota, look to take over that division and one can be confident Mariota's major step forward in 2016 will continue and extend in 2017. The rest of the division is iffy with the Colts presently stuck at 8-8 and the Jaguars having to rise from the wreckage of a lost decade, though the hiring of Tom Coughlin to the front office is an encouraging sign.
The AFC North is a mess with the Ravens mediocre, the Steelers incapable of adjusting based on their poor performance in the AFC Championship Game, and the Bengals having regressed.
The AFC West proved itself stout but the Chiefs overachieved and the Raiders played superbly but fell apart when Derek Carr got injured; the Broncos meanwhile have a good defense but it's not good enough to win them games; the Chargers are suddenly in an ugly limbo with a move to LA that's developing into a fiasco.
The Superbowl even had a Peter Hermann sighting!
And of course the subplot of all Superbowls is the ads during the telecast. Peter Hermann's ad was easily the most memorable.
The Patriots are accused of being able to plug in anyone to play their system - well this guy and his lovely wife were signed as utility backs and finished with 80 touches for 1,000 yards and fourteen touchdowns.
HEHEHE.
The Patriots and Falcons radio calls of the comeback
So it went for the greatest Superbowl ever played.
So the NFL now has its Superbowl LI contestants and the Conference Championship Games were revelatory about how good the New England Patriots are and how much a fraud the Pittsburgh Steelers and especially the Green Bay Packers are.
Back in 2011 and 2012 several pieces first raised analytical awareness of Aaron Rodgers' inability to win clutch games. Entering 2012 Rodgers was Mister Irrelevant in the fourth quarter at just 3-18 in comeback attempts. By October 2013 - following Green Bay's 34-30 loss to the Bengals in which Rodgers erased a 14-0 gap, led 30-14, and when a 4th-down fumble became the go-ahead Bengals touchdown failed to lead the comeback - he fell to 5-24 in comeback attempts.
And since then, nothing has qualitatively gotten any better - my quick and dirty count indicates he is now 10-41 in comeback attempts, and even more damning, by my quick and dirty count he is 4-31 in games where he trailed by at least two scores and also 0-35 in comebacks against quality opponents. For 2016 he finished 0-7 in games where he had to stage a fourth quarter comeback and 0-6 when he trailed by at least two scores; his only two game-winning drives were against the Bears - after blowing a 17-point lead - and at the Cowboys - where he was outscored 18-6 in the fourth quarter. Indeed the fourth quarter of Green Bay's 2016 games is illustrative of Rodgers, doing nothing well beyond frontrunning, and inability to make clutch plays -
@ Jaguars - 3 points in a game the Packers never trailed
@ Vikings - 7 points down 17-7, lost game
vs Lions - shutout in fourth of game the Packers never trailed
vs NY Giants - 6 points in game they never trailed
vs Cowboys - 10 points when they trailed 27-9, lost game
vs Bears - 13 points where they were leading at the start of the fourth
@ Falcons - 8 points, fell behind 33-32, Rodgers comeback failed, lost game
vs Colts - 13 points when trailing by 18, lost game
@ Titans - shutout in fourth, lost game
@ Redskins - 14 points when down 22-10, outscored 20-14 in fourth, lost game
@ Eagles - 10 points in game they never trailed
vs Texans - 14 points after game was tied entering the fourth
vs Seahawks - 10 points in game already up 28-3 entering the fourth
@ Bears - 3 points after blowing 17-point lead
vs Vikings - 10 points when up 28-10 entering the fourth
@ Lions - 14 points when leading 17-14 entering fourth
vs NY Giants - 14 points when leading 24-13 entering the fourth
@ Cowboys - 6 points where they blew a 15-point lead and were outscored 18-6
@ Atlanta - 6 points in game they never led, lost game
The funniest Green Bay meltdown of 2016 was also the most prescient toward Green Bay's ultimate massacre at the hands of another southern division NFL team
By this point of Rodgers' career it's obvious he is not a great quarterback. When he faces clutch situations, he falters - if he has to stage a comeback, he fails. People fall in love with the athleticism and arm strength, but too often these are substitutes for smart quarterbacking the way he plays - his lack of a small ball attack is a fundamental weakness, as he prefers the spectacular play - athleticism and arm strength. Indeed what is striking the more one watches him is he so often gets away with what dumb quarterbacks usually do.
And so he falls short yet again and has now lost in the playoffs six straight seasons, 5-6 in overall playoff games in that span.
Meanwhile there's not much to say about the Patriots' usual demolition of the Steelers beyond sayonara Steelers.
So the two week interregnum for New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons begins.
The NFL's 2016 season hit the divisional round of the playoffs and once again an off-field story has usurped attention from the on-field competition.
San Diego's 43-35 shootout over the Tennessee Titans was in a sense the last hurrah for the San Diego Chargers
The rumor of a move of the San Diego Chargers to Los Angeles had died down in recent weeks, even to circulating speculation the Chargers, seeing less than promising response to the presence of the Rams in LA in 2016, would postpone a decision until after 2017. But that blew up when Dean Spanos announced the Chargers are moving to Carson, CA and will play there in 2017 until Stan Kroenke's new Rams stadium is built around 2019.
The rumor had swelled after San Diego voters rejected a hotel tax to fund a new stadium in San Diego, and they were stunned when Dean Spanos made the announcement of the move and the rebranding of the team after the wildcard round of the NFL's playoffs. The anger of Chargers fans caught more than a few in the media by surprise, and the universal indifference of reaction in Los Angeles was also telling.
The rationalization of the move was strikingly muted in the media; indeed what was most striking was national media condemnation of Spanos for moving the Chargers and also mocking of Roger Goodell's claim that "It is not a viable option" for the team owners and the league to spend its own money on stadiums - of course this was exposed as yet another Goodell lie (though the attitude predates Goodell) by the roughly $600 million relocation fee the Chargers have to pay, as if they could not have refurbished Qualcomm Stadium with Spanos' own money the way Stephen Ross has done to Joe Robbie Stadium in Miami; Kroenke's new LA stadium is being built with his own money, which catches one by surprise with Minnesota and Atlanta getting new publically-financed stadiums.
The assertion that staying in San Diego (a market by all accounts the NFL wants because it is a football town) retards the long-range value of the Chargers - with repeated citation of the purchase price of the LA Clippers in the $2 billon range - is laughable given LA's miserable record as a sports town with little fan support, sponsor support that does not stand out compared to other markets, and the faltering of fan support of the Rams almost as soon as they played their first home games. It is striking how universal the view is that moving the Chargers to LA makes zero sense - of course it indeed makes zero sense.
After this travesty came the laughable follow-up - the Oakland Raiders filed paperwork to move to Las Vegas, yet another con of a sports market.
The relocation story cast a shadow over Saturday's wildcard games. The New England Patriots were overwhelming favorites over the ineffective Brock Osweiler and the Houston Texans. The game itself was a wire-to-wire Patriots win by 18 points, but the Patriots struggled strikingly badly on offense with no rhythm, two INTs by Brady, a Dion Lewis fumble on a kick return, and a disturbingly limited number of pass-catching targets in Chris Hogan - sidelined in the third with a thigh issue - and Julian Edelman. Lack of pass-catching depth has plagued the Patriots' playoff runs of late and this time it is doubly striking given the depth the Patriots seemed to have going in.
Brock Osweiler's growing incompetence as a quarterback was exposed yet again as he threw a bad pick that set up Dion Lewis' touchdown.
The Seahawks' road woes of 2016 reached their nadir at the Georgia Dome - they finish 3-5-1 in road games in 2016 - as Matt Ryan grabbed only his second career playoff win - both of them against the Seahawks. This season marked the end of the Legion Of Boom and the Seahawks face a period where they will stay contenders with Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll but are not a championship-caliber outfit - and Wilson's poor play made this point even more.
The NFL's playoffs are off and running and already we've had two football diva moments -
First Odell Beckham Jr. is doing nothing but make the case that he is a liability to the NY Giants. He came up small yet again in a big game - and one cannot remember one time where Beckham ever raised his game even marginally in any kind of big game. Beckham's sideline and postgame tantrums are getting worse, notably with a reported blowup after his Giants got smoked by Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
Beckham's marketing endeavor has by now all but surpassed his on-field production and the conclusion one can only draw now is he is not a serious football player, he is a self-marketed brand name irrelevant to winning.
Even worse is Beckham was part of a party cruise several days before the Packers game with several teammates, a sign of a lack of discipline on the part of Giants coaching apart from the awfulness of the Giants' overall performance against the overrated Packers, where they had the Packers manhandled for much of the first half and couldn't score, and couldn't stop Aaron Rodgers from yet more desperation heaves that he keeps getting away with - his overall game more and more is becoming streetball - based on freelancing and overreliance on athleticism and arm strength to get out of situations - rather than the kind of smart quarterbacking that today is personified by Tom Brady.
*****
The second diva moment came when Steelers coaching assistant Joey Porter - a former linebacker with the Steelers - was arrested outside a bar following the game. Porter's history as a player was one of instigating fights, so getting arrested would seem to be par for the course for a guy who's not worth a damn anymore than Odell Beckham Jr.
*****
The Steelers' win over the Dolphins was one of several curious revenge bowl games that permeated Wildcard weekend, as the Steelers avenged their earlier slaughter at Miami, while the Houston Texans manhandled the punchless Oakland Raiders - as for the first time a Houston pro football team defeated the Raiders in the playoffs after losses by the Oilers in three such contests - and the Packers got a measure of revenge over the Giants after the two playoff losses (2007 and 2011).
Divisional round weekend offers more such opportunity.
Falcons over Seahawks - This is a rematch of 2012's playoff stunner at the Georgia Dome and one recalls this 2012 meeting remains Matt Ryan's only career playoff win. In Seattle's victory over the Lions, former Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren served as the color analyst on Westwood One's radio call, and it is doubly fitting as the Seahawks enter this game having reverted to the distinguishing characteristic of Holmgren's time as Seahawks coach - poor performance in road games (3-4-1 on the road this year). The Seahawks even at home against a Lions team that has once and for all shown no ability to beat a quality opponent didn't play all that strongly. It's a key game for Ryan as he has never proven he can elevate his game when it matters.
In 2015 the Patriots faced JJ Watt - and Watt was invisible.
Patriots over Texans - The Texans managed the win over the Raiders who didn't have a capable quarterback. It the short history of the Texans they've won once against the Patriots and the losses to the Patriots have been almost invariably embarrassing. The Patriots enter this game with the deepest receiving corps they've had in years and the top scoring defense in the league; Houston's defense has also been strong, but Houston's seven losses speaks to that defense not being as good as the numbers might suggest.
Steelers over Chiefs - A lot of people are awed by Antonio Brown of the Steelers and in yet another rematch from the regular season the Steelers get a Chiefs team they annihilated in Week Four. The caveat here is the Chiefs have forced 23 turnovers since then (plus-six in turnover differential over the Steelers in that span) with ten wins in their last twelve games, plus the way the playoffs have gone the home team enters Divisional Round weekend unbeaten.
Cowboys over Packers - We mentioned Aaron Rodgers' style of play - streetball, just freelancing and relying on athleticism and arm strength instead of smart quarterbacking. The Cowboys play smarter football and have already manhandled the Packers in their own building this season. The match between these two that will get a lot of recall is the Dez Bryant catch in 2014 that was overruled. Dakota Prescott has shown Russell Wilson-esque calm in tough situations and the result has been Dallas' 13-3 surge.
So we thus await Odell Beckham's next meltdown and Divisional Weekend.
Yep, the Bengals failed in a big opportunity again, and the NY Giants are now in the fight for the NFC playoffs.
And suddenly the NFL landscape is a lot different entering Week Eleven than it was when thirteen teams were 1-3 - of course the 0-4 Browns are still winless, so on that score nothing has changed.
So what can we think we'll see for this coming week's games?
Panthers over Saints - This is a risky pick given both teams lost last week and the Panthers' inability to hold a lead showed its ugly head again against the Chiefs. Being at home is not advantage for the Panthers either, but neither team has looked like a playoff team despite some gaudy offenses and an aging Drew Brees is still having his hands full despite yet more 4,000-yard production.
Bengals over Bills - The Bengals' run of playoff appearances is almost certainly over but this week they lick their wounds from another primetime flameout and get a Bills team that's been competitive but not good enough.
Steelers over Browns - It is simply impossible to feel the Browns can win even one game, as mediocre as the Steelers are.
Cowboys over Ravens - The Ravens lead the AFC North and that says this division is the weakest in the league as they take on a Cowboys team that keeps taking the steps needed toward making the Superbowl.
Lions over Jaguars - One of the regrets of the season has been the regression of Blake Bortles and the Jaguars, who showed every reason to feel they would take the next step - instead it's been the division-leading Lions - that's right, I'll say it again, division-leading Lions - who may have taken that next step.
Titans over Colts - Yes, this is a completely risky pick because of the ten straight wins by the Colts over the Titans and with the Colts coming off a bye. The Titans, however, have shown significant improvement the last few games (especially in Marcus Mariota's command of the offense and in coaching) and they've usually played the Colts bitterly tough in this ten-game stretch of lost opportunity. Look for the two teams to light up the scoreboard.
Chiefs over Buccaneers - While they haven't taken the next step, the Bucs have shown some improvement of late, it won't though be enough against a Chiefs team that is now in the lead in their division.
Cardinals over Vikings - Sam Bradford has now authored the Vikings into freefall, aided by a stunning collapse of his O-line, while the Cardinals are still well within Wildcard territory and possible division upset range.
NY Giants over Bears - The Giants are now in the Wildcard fight and the Bears are almost worse than the winless Browns.
Dolphins over Rams - It's no longer a question of whether Adam Gase can get anything going - it's now a question of whether the Dolphins can pull off an upset surge into the playoffs. Making it easier is a Rams team once again stuck in mediocrity, though pressure to start Jared Goff has eased with the win over the Jets.
Patriots over 49ers - Not the lock one assumed before the stunning Seahawks loss. The Patriots get a Niners team that played surprisingly well against the Cardinals and do so with major questions about responding to hard hitting and ability to cover anyone - with one postgame analysis after the loss to the Seahawks stating the Patriots defense is basically a lunch-pail group that takes coaching but lacks playmakers - questions that usually get answered albeit some more quickly than others; making it more intriguing is the possible absence of Rob Gronkowski for a game due to an injury. The Niners are in Bears-Browns territory in terms of being memorably worthless.
Seahawks over Eagles - The win over the Patriots has now put all the momentum back in Seattle's hands and they get an Eagles team that's played well but not consistently so.
Redskins over Packers - With word (via Mike Florio) of a swelling power struggle between Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy - and burgeoning Rumor Control Central belief McCarthy is gone after the year, though who would want to take over this burgeoning drama queen enterprise has yet to sort out - the Packers season is suddenly in serious trouble even with the mediocrity of the division and facing the weakest team in the NFC East in the Redskins. The Skins, however, host this game and Rodgers' weaknesses as a quarterback are only becoming more glaring - freelancing, not adequately reading defenses and setting up passing attacks accordingly, and of course when he falls behind by 10 or more points, more and more it's an automatic win for his opponent.
Raiders over Texans in Mexico City - Mexico City hosts the NFL for the first time in years - the last time I remember a game there, Ed Hochuli was the ref and spoke in Spanish. The Raiders for their part have turned into Speedy Gonzalez and Brock Osweiler has turned into the flustered crow who gets humiliated by Speedy, this despite leading the Texans to 6-3. The Raiders look like a division lock and appear to be the comeback team of the season.
One note on a team now in its Bye week - the San Diego Chargers now need to start phasing away from Philip Rivers and develop a new quarterback. Their playoff hopes are now gone and Rivers can no longer deliver when it's needed.
Week Eight of the 2016 season saw some things change yet others stay the same.
Before anyone could play Whack A Pack, first the Tennessee Titans hosted the Jacksonville Jaguars; the year before at Tennessee the two teams scored 79 combined points; there was no such shootout this time as Marcus Mariota and the Titans displayed some creative playcalling, and after getting rolled 36-22 the Jaguars thought they'd continue without coaching changes - then something changed and offensive coordinator Greg Olson was fired. Last year the Detroit Lions fired their offensive coordinator and won six of the next eight games, so this change bears watching.
The Redskins and Bengals squared off in London, the final London game on the schedule this year amid scuttlebutt the league wants to increase the London slate next year despite inability to make any money with the game and ZERO evidence Londoners are really that interested. The game itself was the most competitive of the London slate that anyone can remember but it ended in a hated tie (27-27) on yet more missed FGAs. Josh Norman also got exposed by AJ Green.
This week saw three standout games. When it appeared the day would see two ties the Raiders pulled off their most spectacular win in memory in a thriller at Tampa Bay, a Superbowl rematch that lived up to the name Super. The Raiders' reputation for playing dumb football and incurring plethoric penalties as a result came through in a big way with twenty-three fouls, while Derek Carr exploded to over 500 passing yards, the second guy to do it this season after Matt Ryan against the Panthers. With that the Raiders are 6-2 with a showdown game against the Broncos coming up.
The AFC West is the deepest division in the league as the Kansas City Chiefs made history, beating the Indianapolis Colts for only the third time in the last sixteen meetings, this despite losing Alex Smith to injury and playing Nick Foles. The slow-motion collapse of the Andrew Luck Colts - and potential collapse of Chuck Pagano's employment there in the first such coach opera since Wayne Watch with the 1990s Detroit Lions and Wayne Fontes - thus continues.
Speaking of Wayne Watch, Fontes' former team suffered another loss to the AFC South and fell to 4-4 while Brock Osweiler salvaged some pride from last week's embarrassment at Denver.
This is the second of two Games Of The Week. Aaron Rodgers did it again - when he had to stage a comeback, he failed. And with the Vikings at present running away with the NFC North the Packers and Lions may be battling for a wildcard spot down the road. For Matt Ryan the win ended a four-game losing streak to the Packers and offered renewed optimism for the remainder of the season.
Just when Bills Mafia thought it had a chance, it got crushed. Tyrod Taylor did offer some good play but it was telling EJ Manual seemed to play a little better when he came in during garbage time. The win is New England's 498th as they close in on becoming the first team originating from the American Football League to reach 500 career wins. And yet the game wasn't even the big story.....
....and no, the big story wasn't the adult toy thrown onto the field. The Patriots stole the show the day after by trading Jamie Collins to the Browns for a conditional draft pick. As usual with Bill Belichick trades the specifics are left to speculation, but Mike Lombardi pointed to one play in particular against the Bills - the second play of the Bills' opening drive - where Collins freelanced his way away from making a play and thus the Bills gained 28 yards; such freelancing fails and because of that invariably gets players demoted and eventually cut from Belichick rosters.
The third Game Of The Week. Any thought that Tony Romo would get back the starting job with the Cowboys has officially ended when Dakota Prescott clawed back against the Eagles and led the winning overtime touchdown drive, further cementing the 2016 Cowboys as a playoff contender.
Two weeks ago fourteen NFL teams were 1-3 or 0-4. Two weeks later we suddenly have signs some of these teams have begun a turnaround from what is almost always the kiss of death for making the playoffs.
The first sign this weekend was going to be a little upside down was San Diego's upset of the Broncos on Thursday Night. Despite a lack of scoring and some bafflingly conservative playcalling in the fourth quarter, the Chargers took down the Broncos, who no longer look as powerful as advertised, plus the Chargers look like a completely different defense with Joey Bosa now up and running.
A team with little worry about making the playoffs welcomed its Hall Of Famer for his first home game of the year. Tom Brady responded with another F4 Phantom sortie - Brady delivered the bombs and shot down the Cincinnati Bengals, this amid some cheap hitting by the Bengals, who made a game of it until Andy Dalton got sacked for a safety and the Patriots erupted from there on - continuing the reputation of the Patriots as the machine of the NFL and continuing Cincinnati's reputation for lack of leadership, cheap hitting, lack of discipline, and insistence on winning with athleticism and talent instead of focused, smart play.
Contrast this with the other big story entering Week Six's slate of games - Colin Kaepernick's return to the starting job of the 49ers. Kaepernick's spark lasted all of one half as the Niners clawed to a 14-13 halftime gap, then the Bills outscored the Niners 31-6. Kaepernick finished showing his flaws as a quarterback are still there - he completed just thirteen of 29 passes and ran more than competent quarterbacks are supposed to run. Fitting that T-shirts showing Kaepernick in a gunsight were sold before the game.
The sickest catch of the year so far was Jaelen Strong's catch of Brock Osweiler's bomb, a bomb worthy of Warren Moon and a dagger to the Indianapolis Colts. The Houston comeback - from down two touchdowns - has suddenly made the AFC South a legitimate division race.
Easily the game of the day was another rip-roaring affair between the Panthers and the Saints, who fought to a 41-38 thriller last season and this time the result was reversed. Though they fell to 1-5 the Panthers actually showed some reason for salvaging a decent season as they kept coming back and Cam Newton appeared to begin getting some rhythm back.
Marcus Mariota authored the first two-game winning streak of his career and authored the Tennessee Titans to their first win over the Cleveland Browns in the last three meetings. Cody Kessler returned under center for the Browns and the Browns made a taut game of it despite falling to 0-6. Kessler has played well overall even without a win, and the Browns may not get much of a record this year but I'm not seeing them going 0-16 now; Kessler has too much upside for that. For that matter Mariota is also giving the league reason to believe the Titans will build to a playoff power down the road.
In addition to genuine promise from Cody Kessler the Browns are seeing play to be proud of from ex-Raiders ex-quarterback Terrell Pryor. League fans should want the Browns to turn it around with the genuine talent we're seeing from Kessler and Pryor.
The AFC West just got a lot more curious as the Kansas City Chiefs shot down the rising Raiders and thus began to claw back into the playoff race. It ended a bad week for Oakland fans with the Las Vegas Stadium now a fait accompli despite no credible evidence of any actual fanbase in Vegas.
Odell Beckham's sideline meltdowns have become the story for the NY Giants but against the slumping Baltimore Ravens Beckham erupted. It was a taut finish as the Ravens scored around the 2-minute warning only to see Eli Manning explode with some 1:20 to go. Combined with the Redskins' win over the Eagles the win puts the Giants back into the NFC East conversation.
But staying well out front in the NFC East is the Cowboys, whose rookie class of Dakota Prescott and Zeke Elliott is leading the Pokes on a rampage reminiscent of the glory days of Troy, Emmitt, Irvin, etc. The Cowboys also continued the career trend for Aaron Rodgers, once again in over his head when he has to lead a comeback, perhaps best illustrated by his late-game fumble on 2nd and 6 before the follow-up fumble that effectively ended the game.
Trouble in Pittsburgh? One of my sources indicates a budding feud within the team involving coach Mike Tomlin; nobody did themselves well in getting humiliated by the struggling Dolphins.
Giving nightmares to the Steelers was Jay Ajayi, whose 204 yards further exposed the Steelers to be a dubious challenger.
The Detroit Lions are making a case they're becoming a genuine challenger in a terrific game with the Rams, who've faltered after their early-season winning streak. Matthew Stafford has struggled to string together consistent winning play over the years but Jim Caldwell, given up for dead by a lot of railbirds before the season, may be what Stafford has needed to go along with his talent. Case Keenum meanwhile has also put together some encouraging play.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have quietly begun stringing together wins and erasing a two-touchdown gap in the fourth quarter at Chicago showed there's some fight in this squad.
Oddly unnoticed have been the Seattle Seahawks, but they've surged ahead in the NFC West by edging a surging Falcons squad. The Seahawks benefitted from a questionable non-call on Richard Sherman on Atlanta's last-gasp bomb.
So what does it all mean? The Patriots, the Vikings, and - perhaps - the Cowboys and Seahawks appear to be the only sure thing in this season. Six teams that were 1-3 won Thursday or Sunday and I suspect a number of formerly 1-3 teams will surprise people by December.
Tom Brady returned to the NFL in Week Five and him being back was a back-breaker in Week Five
Tom Brady had no rust as he killed the already-moribund Cleveland Browns, who lost their promising young quarterback and had to rely on the inept journeyman Charlie Whitehurst
The Minnesota Vikings continue their unbeaten run, pounding the Houston Texans, who may be second-guessing getting Brock Osweiler as Osweiler has been shaky the last few games
No more win streak for the Broncos and while the Falcons didn't put up the monster numbers they'd put up their previous three games their offense bullied the Broncos defense convincingly. This game also raised some doubts about Paxton Lynch, whose debut was woefully weaker than Trevor Siemian's
The Eagles finally fell and Carson Wentz threw a pick, but their start was a lot better than anyone expected and this setback shouldn't ruffle anyone in Philly. It was also an encouraging win for Matthew Stafford, though a playoff berth remains unlikely
The Bears nearly pulled off the win at Indianapolis and put up some 500 yards of offense with better-than-expected play from Brian Hoyer; Hoyer seems certain to be the permanent replacement for the inept Jay Cutler
Marcus Mariota accounted for all four Tennessee Titans touchdowns at Miami and it was a promising effort toward long-term improvement, while the Titans broke out of a competitive game and broke the back of the Dolphins; the replacement for Ryan Tannehill should already be being scouted by Dolphins personnel people
The Bungles tried to get the number of the Dallas truck that ran over them - it was driven by Dakota Prescott and Zeke Elliott, who hasn't hit the wall (unlike Chase Elliott at Charlotte again) but instead is hitting the holes. The sight of a laughing Tony Romo on the sideline was pathetic as Romo's career with the Cowboys should be over
The surprise perhaps of the day was the Bills - written off when they were 0-2 they've now won three in a row while blunting the Rams' early surge in the NFC West; suddenly the prospect of the Bills making the playoffs for the first time since 1999 is for now no longer a joke
Also no joke is the Oakland Raiders as they surged to 4-1 in perhaps the most competitive game of the day. The gagged FGA by the Chargers at the end and more INTs by Philip Rivers have become the norm for the Chargers - when they have to step up, they fail
NFL Redzone's touchdown compilation from Week Five
Julio Jones and Matt Ryan suddenly have firepower, and they'll need it to try and knock down the unbeaten Broncos
Often over the years Week Five is gut-check week for NFL teams. A rally to make the playoffs usually has to start now. But for fourteen teams entering Week Five with just one win - or winless as the Cleveland Browns are - the task seems unrealistic, so focusing on just winning the next game and trying to build something would seem the more prudent course.
Not that a rally for a 1-3 team can't happen, but maybe fifteen of the eighteen teams with two or more wins coming in appear ready to start a springboard with a Week Five win. So we try again with picks -
Cardinals over 49ers - Two 1-3 teams clash on Thursday Night and injury to Carson Palmer throws a wrench into the works for the Cardinals. I'm not confident as of Tuesday that Carson Palmer will play, which leaves things in the hands of the unimpressive Drew Stanton. Working for the Cardinals is the Niners have plummeted after their Week One win and Blaine Gabbert has fallen to earth. Inevitably the talk of starting Colin Kaepernick will start; having proven he is not a leader or a competent quarterback (doing so with his publically poor work ethic) Kaepernick is not the answer.
Vikings over Texans - The Vikings continue to prove they're for real with another dismantling of an opponent, and now they get a Texans team that got the win after getting embarrassed at Foxboro; however the Texans didn't show much in the way of closing power, blew a 14-point lead before a punt-return score put the game just out of Tennessee's reach, and are in the bottom-five in points scored with six INTs by Brock Osweiler - suddenly we may be relearning why the Broncos didn't fight to keep him. Contrast this with Sam Bradford, with a passer rating over 100 and this gives a defense better than the vaunted Broncos defense (the Vikings are second in fewest points allowed) what it needs to work with.
Falcons over Broncos - Yes it's a rash prediction given the Broncos are defending champs, fifth in both points and points allowed, and unbeaten going against a Falcons team 29th in points allowed. The Falcons, though, do not turn the ball over and have forced five turnovers, the same number the Broncos have given up so far - with both teams at plus-three in turnover differential. Assuming Trevor Siemian is out after getting carted off on the meat wagon at Tampa Bay, Paxton Lynch showed he can pick right up where Siemian left off, so there should be no worry at quarterback. Keep in mind when the Broncos faced the Panthers, a better offense than what the Bucs, Bengals, and Colts delivered - the Broncos escaped with a win as opposed to decisively defeating them. If Matt Ryan pulls it off he will finally have taken that true next step.
Redskins over Ravens - Joe Flacco got it done - barely - the first three games but failed when he had to get it going against the resurgent Raiders. Now he, his below-80 passer rating, and the Ravens' minus-one turnover differential face a Deadskins team that's plus-three in turnover differential and has won its last two.
Titans over Dolphins - The 1-3 Dolphins are minus-five in turnover differential; the 1-3 Titans are minus-four. The shocker stat is Ryan Tannehill has a better passer rating than Marcus Mariota - while Mariota is just 73.9, Tannehill is at 87.3. Yet every week the Titans fight to the very end where the Dolphins have shown little fight outside of a surprising and ultimately futile rally at Foxboro. The Titans also have an edge in rushing the ball with over 500 yards and a very healthy 4.7 yards per carry against a Dolphins run defense that's already allowed over 500 yards.
Colts over Bears - This battle of 1-3 teams may be tougher than it looks after the Bears pulled off the win last week. Brian Hoyer is now quarterback and has surged past 100 in passer rating with four touchdowns and no picks, outclassing the incompetent Jay Cutler. Hoyer gets the chance to continue his redemption facing a Colts team that failed to finish a rally against the Jaguars.
Steelers over NY Jets - The Steelers exploded last week and now get fresh meat in a falling Jets team. Ryan Fitzpatrick's collapse was expected, but not necessarily this quickly or this graphically at nine INTs the last two games.
Eagles over Lions - Carson Wentz has yet to show any weakness with five touchdowns and no picks, and he faces a Lions team off to yet another dismal start. Matthew Stafford's passer rating has been good - 93.9 - and he's cut down on turnovers, yet he's not getting the job done, and he faces an Eagles team that leads the league in fewest points allowed and is second in points scored.
Patriots over Browns- The wildcard aspect of this game is the Browns won the last meeting in Cleveland (in 2010) and the Patriots needed to rally in preposterous fashion against them in 2013. The Browns also are seeing some legitimate quarterbacking out of Cody Kessler. Getting Tom Brady back is just in time for a Patriots team angry at getting embarrassed by loudmouth Rex Ryan and after he sent his players to disrupt Patriots pregame warmups; that indignity usually leads to a Patriots win the next game.
Raiders over Chargers - Derek Carr is getting it done and Philip Rivers is not, and it's more and more looking like he can't anymore. This should be a high-scoring affair.
Rams over Bills - The Rams are 3-1 and Case Keenum, despite some subpar numbers, is overall getting it done. The Bills have rallied for two straight wins but Rex Ryan's culture inevitably flames out, and usually in rather spectacular fashion.
Cowboys over Bengals - The Cowboys behind Dakota Prescott look more and more like the real deal, and they face a Bengals squad that is still good, but not up to being great.
Packers over NY Giants - Eli Manning's encouraging start is history and while the Packers are still frontrunning phonies the Giants do not look good enough to make them pay.
Panthers over Buccaneers - The Panthers are now a mess, with injury to Cam Newton, but the Bucs have faltered with eight INTs by Jameis Winston and a disasterous minus-nine turnover differential. The promise of Winston's rookie season hasn't translated to anything, and that's a shame. With both teams 1-3 playoff promise likewise appears gone.
