Week Eight Plays Whack A Pack

Week Eight of the 2016 season saw some things change yet others stay the same.

Before anyone could play Whack A Pack, first the Tennessee Titans hosted the Jacksonville Jaguars; the year before at Tennessee the two teams scored 79 combined points; there was no such shootout this time as Marcus Mariota and the Titans displayed some creative playcalling, and after getting rolled 36-22 the Jaguars thought they'd continue without coaching changes - then something changed and offensive coordinator Greg Olson was fired.   Last year the Detroit Lions fired their offensive coordinator and won six of the next eight games, so this change bears watching.

The Redskins and Bengals squared off in London, the final London game on the schedule this year amid scuttlebutt the league wants to increase the London slate next year despite inability to make any money with the game and ZERO evidence Londoners are really that interested.   The game itself was the most competitive of the London slate that anyone can remember but it ended in a hated tie (27-27) on yet more missed FGAs.   Josh Norman also got exposed by AJ Green.  

This week saw three standout games.  When it appeared the day would see two ties the Raiders pulled off their most spectacular win in memory in a thriller at Tampa Bay, a Superbowl rematch that lived up to the name Super.    The Raiders' reputation for playing dumb football and incurring plethoric penalties as a result came through in a big way with twenty-three fouls, while Derek Carr exploded to over 500 passing yards, the second guy to do it this season after Matt Ryan against the Panthers.   With that the Raiders are 6-2 with a showdown game against the Broncos coming up.

The AFC West is the deepest division in the league as the Kansas City Chiefs made history, beating the Indianapolis Colts for only the third time in the last sixteen meetings, this despite losing Alex Smith to injury and playing Nick Foles.   The slow-motion collapse of the Andrew Luck Colts - and potential collapse of Chuck Pagano's employment there in the first such coach opera since Wayne Watch with the 1990s Detroit Lions and Wayne Fontes - thus continues.

Speaking of Wayne Watch, Fontes' former team suffered another loss to the AFC South and fell to 4-4 while Brock Osweiler salvaged some pride from last week's embarrassment at Denver.  

This is the second of two Games Of The Week.  Aaron Rodgers did it again - when he had to stage a comeback, he failed.    And with the Vikings at present running away with the NFC North the Packers and Lions may be battling for a wildcard spot down the road.   For Matt Ryan the win ended a four-game losing streak to the Packers and offered renewed optimism for the remainder of the season.

Just when Bills Mafia thought it had a chance, it got crushed.   Tyrod Taylor did offer some good play but it was telling EJ Manual seemed to play a little better when he came in during garbage time.   The win is New England's 498th as they close in on becoming the first team originating from the American Football League to reach 500 career wins.   And yet the game wasn't even the big story.....

....and no, the big story wasn't the adult toy thrown onto the field.  The Patriots stole the show the day after by trading Jamie Collins to the Browns for a conditional draft pick.   As usual with Bill Belichick trades the specifics are left to speculation, but Mike Lombardi pointed to one play in particular against the Bills - the second play of the Bills' opening drive - where Collins freelanced his way away from making a play and thus the Bills gained 28 yards; such freelancing fails and because of that invariably gets players demoted and eventually cut from Belichick rosters.

  
The third Game Of The Week.  Any thought that Tony Romo would get back the starting job with the Cowboys has officially ended when Dakota Prescott clawed back against the Eagles and led the winning overtime touchdown drive, further cementing the 2016 Cowboys as a playoff contender.   

NFL Where Are We Going Week Six

The New England Patriots tell us where they're going in Week Six and with Week Five wrapping up, we look ahead to Week Six.


Broncos over Chargers - The Broncos got exposed by the Falcons and Paxton Lynch showed a lot less as a quarterback than Trevor Siemian, rumored to be the starter. Regardless of which one starts for the Broncos they face a Chargers team that cannot finish any game, is minus-one in turnover differential, and is 47-54 this decade entering this game. Philip Rivers' volume stats are good, but he's not getting it done and really hasn't as shown in the 47-54 record.



Jaguars over Bears -  While Brian Hoyer has shown more and more improvement compared to Jay Cutler, the Bears continue to struggle and they get a Jaguars team that finally got some momentum entering their Bye week.   Hoyer's overall quality of play does offer reason for hope, but he has to start winning.

Titans over Browns -  The Browns have won the last two meetings with the Titans (and five of the last eight dating to the last year of the old AFC Central) including 2014's stunning comeback win from down 28-3 after Jake Locker, who'd been head-hunted by the Browns, got knocked out after whacking his throwing hand on a player's helmet.  Ironically present Browns quarterback Charlie Whitehurst took over from there and stormed the Titans to that 28-3 lead - and failed to stop the bleeding.   Now Whitehurst may have to face his old team that clawed to a needed win at Miami and is showing some improvement, this as the Browns at 0-5 are now staring at 0-16.



Steelers over Dolphins  -  The Steelers have it going all around right now, and the Dolphins don't have anything going.


Lions over Rams  -  The Lions pulled off the win over a good opponent last week and now host the Rams, reeling from an ugly loss to Rex Ryan's Bills.   Case Keenum's promising beginning has taken a turn for the worse when he threw two picks last week and now has five picks to just four touchdowns this season, though this matchup might favor him given he beat the Lions last season.


NY Giants over Ravens - The Ravens were the weakest 3-0 team seen in awhile and it showed with losses the last two weeks, enough that Marc Trestman was unceremoniously dumped as offensive coordinator.   Marty "I'll take the wind" Mornhinweg takes over as offensive coordinator; his career as such has been uneven at best, though his teams (especially when he was with the Eagles) have a good record against a Giants team that looks mediocre at best.


Panthers over Saints - Carolina's struggle against the Bucs shows how much of a mess the Panthers are, Cam Newton or Derek Anderson, but even with that the Saints are their own mess despite good offensive numbers.   They did get it done in a shootout at San Diego.


Eagles over Redskins - The Eagles despite the setback at Detroit remain in the top-3 in points and points allowed while the Redskins are stuck in the middle third in both.   The Skins do have momentum on their side having won three straight and are plus-3 in turnover differential, though the Eagles are better at plus-5.


Patriots over Bengals - The rallying cry of 2014 gets renewal as the Patriots have Tom Brady back and face a Bengals team that is just 2-3 (though plus-2 in turnover differential) and only 24th in scoring.   The embarrassment at Dallas showcased the Bengals are hitting another rut that has pockmarked Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton's careers.


Bills over 49ers -  Maybe we better start believing in the Bills after three straight wins, and they get a reeling 49ers squad that may make the mistake of putting the worthless Colin Kaepernick back under center, this after he basically blew off preseason preparation.   Believe it or not the Bills are actually decent in offense (15th in points) and Tyrod Taylor has been effective at quarterback with six touchdowns and just two INTs, though his yards per throw (6.7) leaves something to be desired.


Raiders over Chiefs - The Raiders have surged to 4-1 and Derek Carr seems to be getting ever better, presently at 11 touchdowns to just two INTs.   And lost in the shuffle is the Raiders run game is at a very healthy Five yards per carry.   The odd stat is they've been outgained in the air in yards and touchdowns.   The Raiders host a Chiefs team that's again off to a slow start;  though the Chiefs are plus-3 in turnover differential this number is skewed by the disaster that was the NY Jets.   The Chiefs are 2-2 and aren't scoring a whole lot (just 50 points the last three games).


Cowboys over Packers - Dakota Prescott and company have surged to a 4-1 start and take on a Packers team that's only 12th in points and points allowed (Dallas is 9th in scoring and 8th in points allowed) and has been mildly atrocious against passing attacks (1,098 yards at 6.9 yards per throw and seven touchdowns allowed; the differential between Packers passing yards and yards allowed is over 250 yards); the Packers are also minus-one in turnover differential.   The old saw about the Packers - they can frontrun like crazy and can't stage a comeback when they need one - remains true as they've outlasted the teams they've beaten rather than put them away.   The Cowboys for their part aren't great shakes against passing attacks either (1,303 yards, 6.6 yards per throw, nine touchdowns allowed) and are minus-two in turnover differential; their running game has accounted for eleven scores but goes against a Packers team allowing just two yards per attempt, so this game should be a taut one.


Falcons over Seahawks - having shot down both Superbowl teams - the first team to do that in over 30 years - the Falcons stay out west and head to Seattle's king of a semi-dome.    The Falcons bullied Denver's vaunted defense but take on a Seahawks defense that's noticeably better - third in points allowed, just 5.4 yards per throw allowed, and just one touchdown allowed.    The big gap is in points scored as the Seahawks are only 21st; their passing game is hitting seven yards per throw but the Seahawks are stuck on the ground at just 3.3 yards per rushing attempt.   The Falcons remains atop the league in points and their 25th ranking in points allowed is a little deceiving, as they're winning despite that, in at least part because they are plus-three in turnover differential.


Colts over Texans - Suddenly the Houston Texans don't look like a playoff team anymore.   The Colts rallied to their second win of the season and the Texans were dismal at Minnesota and have looked out of sorts since getting humiliated in Foxboro.   Start with a disturbing turnover differential - minus-four.  More and more Brock Osweiler looks not like a future star but a future washout, with sluggish throwing motion, only five net yards per throw, 58% completion, and more INTs (seven) than touchdowns (six).    Nor has Bill O'Brien lived up to the promise shown as Penn State's coach after the disasterous end of Joe Paterno's regime. 


Cardinals over NY Jets - In the old days a down-in-the-dumps team could regain some confidence when the NY Jets came up on the schedule.   The Cardinals are top-11 in points and points allowed but only 2-3 thanks to some poor play by Carson Palmer and his three losses.   Drew Stanton is no solution down the road but so far he's kept it in a positive direction.    He and the Cards play host to the NY Jets, who have imploded - hilariously illustrated in their plus-NINE turnover differential, this despite not turning over the ball once at Pittsburgh.   The once-vaunted pass defense of the Jets has disintegrated with Darrelle Revis' career - twelve scores in the air, 8.2 net yards per throw allowed.   Meanwhile Ryan Fitzpatrick has played down to his quarterbacking competence with ten picks and just five touchdowns - no wonder Rumor Control Central now has it that the Jets are working on a package to trade to Dallas for Tony Romo.  


And so we're onto Cincinnati, Coach.

Wildcard Sunday: Time For Change In Cincinnati

The Chargers pulled off the win three decades after the famous 1981 AFC Championship "Freezer Bowl" between Dan Fouts and Ken Anderson.   Meanwhile the 49ers won in another Ice Bowl in Green Bay.


What to make of all this?  Some takeaways starting with San Diego at Cincy -



IT'S TIME MIKE BROWN OF THE BENGALS CHANGES HIS WAYS
- Though I'm not yet ready to declare Andy Dalton another playoff bust, it is obvious that not only is there something wrong with him as a quarterback to gag in another playoff game as he did, there is a serious character flaw in him as a quarterback.   There is also the reality about coach Marvin Lewis - 0-5 in the playoffs with nothing he's done in them showing he has any clue or courage to win such games (we kept hearing the Bengals would target A.J Green more, and they didn't).   It illustrates what is holding back the Bengals, a manifestly talented team that can go far - by all accounts I can find, team owner Mike Brown is little more than a crook who has refused to invest in scouting and overall football operations.   He has held onto Marvin Lewis and there had been valid reason to do so, but the continuing playoff failures indicate Lewis' run is ending.   With coordinator Jay Gruden a candidate for at least one NFL head coaching job, it may be time to pull the trigger on Lewis and promote Gruden, a fresh NFL face whose Arena League experience has proven valuable.  



PHILIP RIVERS DIDN'T PUT UP NUMBERS, BUT HE PUT UP EFFECTIVE PLAY - Too many people still look too much at volume stats to determine a quarterback's effectiveness.   Certainly they matter, but the plays made that move the ball also matter.   Philip Rivers had only 128 passing yards but his game management was superior to Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis' - in the battle of wits those two came unarmed.  




GETTING A WOODY FOR WOODHEAD
- Though Ronnie Brown put up over 70 rushing yards, 58 of them came on one play; it was Danny Woodhead who made the offense for San Diego move.  



THE VAUNTED BENGALS LINE IS EMINENTLY BEATABLE
- The Bengals had won a lot of battles at the line of scrimmage all season; this time the Chargers won at the line.



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It was the first game of the Sunday doubleheader and in the NFC nightcap the 49ers did what they've done the last few years.   Takeways from this game -



THE PACKERS AGAIN CANNOT SEAL THE DEAL WHERE THEY DON'T PUT A TEAM AWAY  - The Packers have long been accused of being front-running frauds and against the 49ers they merely proved it yet again. Aaron Rodgers struggled in the passing game (held to just 177 yards) and has now lost four straight to a 49ers team that in the halcyon days of the 1990s Packers was utterly owned by them.    His comeback against the Bears last week was a game where the Packers didn't trail in the second half beyond eight points - and was only the third game where he erased a gap higher than four points to win.   While he played respectably overall, the fact of not being able to front-run has again cost the Packers.



COLIN KAEPERNICK MAY BE BETTER THAN WE THOUGHT
  - He didn't put up monster numbers (just 3,200 passing yards) but twelve of his 21 touchdowns entering the playoffs came after the loss to the Panthers, and in this game he racked up 325 all-purpose yards, including outrushing the Niners offensive backfield.  



OFFENSE PLAYED CONSERVATIVELY OVERALL - In both Sunday games there seemed far greater emphasis on running the ball instead of attacking through the air (in both games the two opponents combined for some 300 rushing yards; the two games combined flirted with 600 all told).   Though the defenses played well, there could have been more scoring with more aggressive offense.



THE SOUTH AND WEST ARE THE STRONGEST DIVISIONS IN THE NFC - Seattle and Carolina await each other's division foes while the Rams and Cardinals showcased real growth in 2013 for possible playoff spots in 2014.   Atlanta's collapse may not be replicated given how much talent is there, while the Bucs are starting anew, this time with a coach in Lovie Smith from Tampa Bay's former NFC Central home.  



And so it goes, as they might say, with Divisional Saturday around the corner.