Titans and Jaguars Spice 2017 Wildcard

So now the 2017 playoffs are upon us and the wildcard round offers the most interesting slate in years as the Titans, Jaguars, and Bills all return to the playoffs after lengthy absences.    The Bills drought is of course the longest, dating to the 1999 season, while the Jaguars last made the playoffs in 2007 and the Titans in 2008, while the Titans look for their first win since Steve McNair upset the Ravens in 2003.

The Buffalo Bills look for their first playoff win since 1995 when they owned Don Shula and Dan Marino. 

The Bills bring some swag into this playoffs after this brawl in the season finale at Miami.



A quick comment on the slate of NFL coach firings - the most fascinating and bizarre is the story that Jon Gruden will get not only the head coaching job with the Raiders but also part-ownership.   With the firing of Jack Del Rio that rumor becomes more credible - with Mark Davis reportedly in heavy debt - a figure indicated by Boomer Esiason is $125 million - it makes sense to bring in ownership help, plus it's a selling point for the move to Vegas.

Titans over Chiefs -    This is the matchup Andy Reid didn't want because the Titans have won six of the seven career meetings they've had with Andy Reid teams.........

Tennessee Titans vs Andy Reid teams -

2000 @ Eagles - W 15-13
2002 vs Eagles - W 27-24
2006 @ Eagles - W 31-13
2010 vs Eagles - W 37-19
2013 vs Chiefs - L 26-17
2014 @ Chiefs - W 26-10
2016 @ Chiefs - W 19-17

.....and the last time the Titans traveled to Arrowhead they clawed out a clutch win.    The Titans have now beaten nine playoff contenders (the Jaguars twice this season, making ten such wins) in the eighteen wins they've clawed out the last two seasons.    Mike Mularkey may still not last into 2018 with the story Titans ownership is frustrated at seeming slowness at developing Marcus Mariota (an interesting matchup here per John Glennon is when Mariota was blitzed he was deadly accurate in completions); certainly the targeting of Patriots coordinator Josh McDaniels makes sense and the Titans are a good fit, but give Mularkey credit for reestablishing a culture with accountability in the Titans locker room.

The last Rams playoff game was 2004 at the Falcons.


Falcons over Rams -    The Rams enter unfamiliar territory - not only the playoffs for the first time since 2004 but also a playoff game at home, and in LA.   The Rams' last playoff win was at Seattle in 2004, so for the Rams this is something new, while for the Falcons it's become old hat.   While not necessarily as good as in 2016 the Falcons enter with momentum, and Matt Ryan is unbeaten against the Rams - but then this is not the same old Rams.

The only other playoff meeting between the Bills and Jaguars was Jacksonville's first ever playoff game.

The last time the Jaguars hosted a playoff game against someone other than the Patriots or Titans, it went swimmingly - and against another AFC East team


Jaguars over Bills -     Tom Coughlin's rebuild of the Jaguars has paid off in their first division title of the AFC South era  and their first division title since the AFC Central.    They face a Bills team that played well enough to make it but hasn't shown they've really taken the next step.    A key matchup - per John Glennon, when Blake Bortles was blitzed, he was abysmal.   So this game could be closer than the reputations of the two teams may suggest.

Where was this out of the Buccaneers all season? Maybe being home dogs helped.


Panthers over Saints -    Beating one team three times in a season is rare, and New Orleans' loss to the Bucs when they had to win to secure the NFC South (Atlanta's win over Carolina backed the Saints into the division title) raises a red flag; the Saints have gone just 3-3 entering the playoffs even with the season sweep of the Panthers, who won four of their last six and committed fewer turnovers in that span than the Saints.    The comeback of both teams has been remarkable, New Orleans from going 7-9 four of the last five seasons and Carolina from slumping to 6-10 in 2016.    The memory of back-to-back 41-38 games hangs over this matchup.


So the playoffs commence.

The Mess That Is NFL Entering Week Four

The Falcons routed the Saints on Monday Night to finish Week Three and it displayed some ominous signs for the Saints


The NFL is a mess entering Week 4 with a number of 0-3 and 1-2 teams that were supposed to be better than this, especially the young quarterbacks; seeing rookies like Trevor Siemian and Carson Wentz sparkle and storm forward is good, but seeing talented young players like Jameis Winston and  Marcus Mariota continue to struggle can become galling as a league fan.  The grind of the season begins to pick up with Week 4.   The predictions -


Bengals over Dolphins - It's still not a scenario where the Miami Dolphins can be taken seriously despite a stunning win over the Browns.  Ryan Tannehill is in his fifth season with NO improvement over his rookie year - it took him this long to reach thirty wins.   The Bengals meanwhile won in Week One and have been in a mini-tailspin since with another poor outing last week; that there isn't a quarterback controversy between Andy Dalton and AJ McCarron is striking because there should have been one in preseason.


Colts over Jaguars -  The first London game of the year features the Jaguars - perennial sacrificial lambs to the myth of an NFL team in London - against the Colts, who got off the skids against the Chargers and have routinely feasted on division teams under Andrew Luck.    The lack of progress from Blake Bortles this season has been a huge letdown.


Redskins over Browns - The Redskins got a needed win last week and while they're not great shakes they get the winless Browns.  The only silver lining for the Browns could be new quarterback Cody Kessler, who put up a genuine fight against the Dolphins, the best a Browns quarterback has looked in recent memory.


Lions over Bears - Jay Cutler is toast, that's been clear for awhile now.  Brian Hoyer is a slight improvement, but that's all.   The Lions come in better than their 1-2 record might indicate, though it's a stretch to consider them a playoff team.



Patriots over Bills -  The funniest moment of the season happened with the publication of Tom Brady photos while naked sunbathing.   It serves to further infuriate the failures that have rooted against him from the fans to the NFL league office as the Patriots have stormed to 3-0 having to play everyone and his brother at quarterback.    Brady returns after this game while the Bills come in after a stunning win over the Cardinals.


Titans over Texans  - This is a reach after another disappointing showing from Marcus Mariota against the Raiders; Mariota has played from behind basically his entire short career of now nineteen games and has not cashed in on comeback opportunities outside of three.   Yet of his three wins two have come on the road, and he's had a higher yards per throw average (6.8 YPA) than Brock Osweiler (6.4), this even without the IR status for JJ Watt.   Both teams are top-7 in fewest points allowed and at the bottom in scoring.   While the Titans have been respectably consistent - just not good enough - the Texans showed some graphic weakness in their last outing with clueless coaching and a noticeable lack of discipline, especially on returns.


Falcons over Panthers - Suddenly one has to worry about Cam Newton, who has thrown five INTs this year so far and is 1-2 going against a Falcons team flying high after whipping their bitterest rival.  Matt Ryan comes in with the highest-scoring offense in the league right now and with just one INT to seven touchdowns, and an eye-popping 9.4 yards per throw.


Seahawks over NY Jets  -  We're assuming right now that Russell Wilson plays despite an MCL sprain; even if Trevonne Boykin plays the Seahawks get a good matchup after Ryan Fitzpatrick fell apart at Kansas City (a laughable 18.2 passer rating and 4.2 yards per throw) and blew his only home game so far with the late INT against Cincinnati.


Raiders over Ravens - The last time the Raiders played the Ravens the league got its true introduction to Derek Carr. This year the Raiders are 2-1 against the most quiet 3-0 team in memory. Carr leads an offense 8th in scoring against a 24th-rated offense but with a defense 4th in fewest points allowed. Joe Flacco, though, has thrown four INTs in three games.


Broncos over Buccaneers - The Broncos have proven the doubters wrong and Trevor Siemian has risen to the occassion, and he gets a Bucs team that beat the Falcons and hasn't risen since.    Jameis Winston did improve after a miserable game at Arizona but couldn't finish a comeback against the Rams; he needs to pierce a Broncos defense that is only 8th in points allowed.


Cardinals over Rams -  Which Cardinals team will show up here?  The one that crushed the Bucs 40-7 or the one that got embarrassed by the Bills?  They get the inept Case Keenum as their opponent and that should help.


Chargers over Saints - The loss to the Falcons further illustrated several hard truths about the Saints - they can't build a quality roster and Drew Brees is in permanent decline.   San Diego's road woes have been graphic; they get New Orleans at Qualcomm this go-round.


Cowboys over 49ers - The Week One shutout of the Rams is history, and the Niners' season appears to be history as well with two abysmal losses and no capable quarterback on the roster.   The Cowboys meanwhile come in with a solid young core led by Dakota Prescott, who has been solid and more despite only one touchdown so far.


Chiefs over Steelers - The Steelers got undressed by the Eagles and now former Eagles coach Andy Reid comes to town a year after the Chiefs' season turned around in spectacular fashion beginning with a win over the Steelers. Alex Smith comes in with a better passer rating (90.6) than Ben Roethlisberger (83.2).


Vikings over NY Giants  -  The Giants got two wins but then got stunned by the Redskins and now have to go to the surprise of the season, the unbeaten Vikings.   The Giants are once again in the bottom third in scoring with nonetheless decent effort from Eli Manning.  The Vikings aren't much better in scoring but have done so having to start Sam Bradford and Shaun Hill.


So it goes for Week Four.

Blount Forces Trauma On Saturday Playoffs

So Saturday's NFL playoffs rained in two finalists for the conference championships and the home teams as expected won both.    Some observations -


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RENAISSANCE OF THE RUN
- With proliferation of nickel defenses, the run game has become markedly more frequent; the Patriots and Seahawks showcased this as Marshawn Lynch exploded to 140 rushing yards and two touchdowns while LeGarrette Blount did him better with over 160 yards and four scores.   In all the Patriots scored six touchdowns on the ground - a supreme irony for the Colts is that the last team that had that many rushing scores was Kansas City(eight rushing scores against Atlanta in 2004).


SEATTLE'S VAUNTED PASS DEFENSE CAN BE PIERCED
- The Seahawks controlled the game for much of the day - but not necesarily all of it.   Drew Brees erupted to 309 yards and led two fourth-quarter touchdown drives.


THE SEAHAWKS WERE BY FAR THE LESS DECISIVE OF THE SATURDAY WINNERS - The Seahawks were as good as advertised, yet the fact of two missed Saints FGAs and the fourth-quarter touchdowns by New Orleans put a scare into Seattle until Marquis Colston's preposterous forward throw with two seconds to go; one recalls Pittsburgh's indecisive win over the NY Jets in the 2004 divisional playoffs that wound up haunting the Steelers the next week.    New England in contrast put the game against Indianapolis away, even with several special teams penalties and the injury that necessiated Stephen Gostkowski to punt and Tom Brady to be the PAT holder.  



HISTORY AND MATCHUPS MATTER - New Orleans and Indianapolis lost for numerous reasons; among the most under-appreciated is that the history of their matchups was overwhelmingly against them.   Pete Carroll overall owns the Saints and Bill Belichick owns the Colts.



ANDREW LUCK, PLAYOFF MIXED BAG
  - Andrew Luck's NFL career is going to be enormous, but he has showcased that he is a radically mixed bag as a playoff quarterback - it comes back to history and matchups as he faced a Kansas City team whose matchup overwhelmingly favored him and then faced a New England team where the matchup is overwhelmingly in favor of the Patriots.   He was that good against Kansas City and that bad against the Patriots.  



THE NEW TENNESSEE TITANS - Several scraps ensued in the fourth quarter in Foxboro and Jerrell Freeman of the Colts threw several punches yet got away with it.    This is what the Tennessee Titans used to do and apparently the Colts want that in their game.   



COACHING DIFFERENCES - Down big in the fourth quarter the Colts faced a scenario where they threw two incompletions needing to gain one down and then punted - an indication the Colts were quitting on the game where it appeared they could have tried a run.



Thus was Divisional Saturday completed as the Patriots and Seahawks were singing in Gene Kelly's rain.     

Divisional Playoffs Align For Patriots and Panthers

The Divisional Round of the 2013 playoffs is here and the stars are aligning for one possible Superbowl matchup, though the reality of playoff football is that the strange stuff of the season usually happens at that point.    We look at the four pending games -


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SEAHAWKS over Saints - The Saints have won only once over Pete Carroll's Seahawks and that was November 2010.   The last two meetings the Seahawks outscored the Saints 75-43.  Russell Wilson is the real deal and Richard Sherman talks a big game yet makes plays all the same.   The Saints won a road playoff game for the first ever - but this is a Seahawks team that they haven't been able to figure out.



PATRIOTS over Colts - The Colts pulled off a history-making comeback win over Kansas City, but all they did in such was restore order - the Colts have owned the Chiefs since 1990 (13 wins in their last 15 meetings) and the Patriots are not the Chiefs.   The Patriots have owned the Colts pretty much since they moved to Indianapolis and in Andrew Luck's first meeting with the Patriots he threw three interceptions in a 59-24 massacre in 2012.   After not throwing a pick in his previous two games this year Luck tossed up three last week and has four in two career playoff games.   The Patriots also know a few things about comeback wins, especially this season.   Indy's late signing of former Patriot Deion Branch indicates some desperation there.



PANTHERS over 49ers - The Panthers are 11-7 lifetime against the 49ers and have won four straight.   Cam Newton's gang edged the Niners at The Stick 10-9 earlier this season and have been on fire since starting 1-3.   The Niners certainly aren't slouches at 12-4 and winners of their last seven games.   Colin Kaepernick was let loose against Green Bay and that made him more dangerous in that game; he's also second in rushing behind Frank Gore.   The Panthers can use Stevonne Smith and that massive chip on his shoulder for this game.



CHARGERS over Broncos - In nine career games against Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning is 4-5 with two playoff losses; he's also thrown some sixteen interceptions in those games.   The Chargers already beat the Broncos in their own building a few weeks back and have been riding momentum on through their Freezer Bowl rematch at Cincinnati last week, and Peyton's playoff history bodes ill for the Broncos - between cold weather and the fact of being in a playoff game, Manning is at his worst.   Rivers is now a .500 quarterback in playoff games and Manning remains with a losing playoff record.   Among the subplots is Broncos coordinator Jack Del Rio, whose defenses have been pierced virtually every game.



Expect the unexpected, but also plan for San Diego @ New England and Carolina @ Seattle - with the Patriots-Panthers rematch still on the potential horizon.

NFL Down To December

So it comes down to December and the playoff races are starting to sort out.    A look at how the league appears to be sorting out entering the final month of the season -


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The Patriots keep on clawing for the showdown to the Superbowl
  - The Houston Texans once again played well in a loss, and the Patriots' career record at Reliant Stadium makes interesting reading - in three games against the Texans plus the Superbowl against the Panthers, the total points differential for the Patriots is plus-two.   For some reason the Patriots win there but can't put anyone away there.

The Texans season is shot but Case Keenum keeps making a legitimate case for himself for 2014; it is baffling Keenum is winless so far.


The rest of the AFC East remains battling for pride
- The Dolphins won their fifth road game against the NY Jets in the last six trips to East Rutherford, NJ, and the Jets added further to the collapse of their season by benching Geno Smith for Matt Simms; benching the ostensible starter never leads to good results.

It is worth examining coach Rex Ryan here because the widespread belief entering the season was he was on the firing line, then as the Jets stayed at .500 it seemed Ryan was coaching his way to an extension, but now the Jets are in freefall.    The blunt truth is Ryan has done little to justify not firing him - he is a players' coach, and thus his players lack the same level of discipline seen with quality teams (showcased by Ryan's absurd restaurant trip with his players before their loss at Buffalo); he has been overrated as a defensive coach, as one struggles to remember when his defenses legitimately stopped a good offense; by my understanding he has had a say in personnel decisions and the poor construction of the Jets roster thus labels him as one not to be trusted on personnel matters.  

Meanwhile the Buffalo Bills continue falling, as they blew a winnable game at Toronto's dome against the Falcons.  Up 31-24 the Bills couldn't stop the Falcons from tying the game, nor could they stop the seemingly-inevitable winning field goal by the Falcons in overtime.  



The Broncos all but clinched the top AFC seed - It was the shootout everyone expected but the Chiefs proved unable to hang with the Broncos and now Peyton Manning has the AFC West all to himself for now.   The Chiefs have to settle for the top wildcard seed while the Chargers have all but fallen out of any playoff possibility and their spectacular win over the Chiefs has proven the exception proving the rule of right now - the Chargers play uninspired football at a time they need more of what they produced against Kansas City.  


The Colts all but wrapped up another AFC South title and the Titans continue to blow it - Reading message boards Titans fans want to fire Mike Munchak now, yet watching the Titans the problems they are having stem from the quarterbacking instability Munchak didn't have to deal with in 2011's 9-7 season.   Ryan Fitzpatrick has authored more heartbreak than production, and didn't shy away from it ("I didn't play well," he said after the game); he has the talent to win games yet it isn't happening.   

And making it doubly frustrating - the Titans have shown fight all season; therein lay the strongest endorsement of Mike Munchak - his players clearly are playing for him.   I highly doubt the Titans wouldn't have won some of these bitter games with Jake Locker.   And those who advocate firing Mike Munchak need a credible argument along the lines of above's case against Rex Ryan - and one is hard-pressed to find one here. 

Houston and Jacksonville meanwhile show anew Sean Salisbury's truism - the difference between 12-4 and 4-12 is a quarterback and two or three players.  The Jaguars' win at Cleveland was a surprisingly good game and showcased the Jaguars are not stiffs.



The Bengals are closing on a division title that looks more impressive than their last two - Andy Dalton appears to be getting better as a quarterback and the Bengals are showing signs of gelling and maturing, qualities needed with Baltimore not out of the playoff race yet.    Even with their win over the Steelers, though, the Ravens do not look strong enough to make the playoffs, and the late run of last year is hard to replicate this year, especially given how the Ravens blew up the roster to pay Joe Flacco big bucks. 


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The Seahawks are - almost - division champs - The Seahawks look like NFC top-seed material easily, though the 49ers got a needed win over the Rams while the Cardinals came up short at Philadelphia.   By crushing the New Orleans Saints, the Seahawks further reinforced they are effectively unbeatable at home.


The Panthers and Saints are on the NFC South collision course - The Panthers held serve against the Bucs and the Saints were thoroughly destroyed at Seattle. The two teams amazingly haven't faced each other yet and first do so next week.   The Panthers now have the given how effective Cam Newton is and also with the Panthers holding a two-game winning streak in the series.  The loss at Seattle may have been a fatal blow to the Saints.


The Eagles can win the NFC East - Dallas rallied to beat the Raiders but it is Philadelphia that has control of the division as they continue to get better and Nick Foles keeps showing people he is for real.  


The rebirth of the Lions is one of the league's best stories - Matthew Stafford finally beat the Packers and did so despite early-game gaffes.   It was the first Lions win on Thanksgiving since 2003 and reinforced how remarkable the rebirth of the Lions after 2008's perfect failure has been.   Stafford's gutsiness has been displayed repeatedly but his comeback win over the Cowboys is the kind of win that makes fans out of people.   It certainly rivals his 2009 comeback over the Browns as an unforgettable game. 

Making it more delicious is that it furthers the fall of the Packers, the league's ultimate frontrunning fraud.   


With that the NFL marches toward Week 14.

The Case Against Roger Goodell

It is another of those bizarre circumstances that leaves one baffled. The NFL and the NFL Referees Association signed an eight year deal ending the lockout of the refs for the first three games of the season. And the entire sports world is celebrating after a three week campaign of hatred against "replacement" referees. The scene cited most often is the final touchdown in the Seahawks-Packers game where the media right away was screaming that the Packers got robbed.

They didn't.

By now you've seen the replays 1 million times - and the agenda of hating the replacement referees has colored virtually all analysis of that play to where people have overlooked the not-so-obvious - that MJ Jennings of the Packers never established control of the football; that Golden Tate never let go of the ball; that one-handed possession counts just the same as two-hand possession - just ask Randy Moss and David Tyree - and the tie ALWAYS goes to the receiver. As for the refs not calling offensive pass interference on that play - the reason they didn't is the same reason is isn't called any other time in a Hail Mary passing situation - it is NOT a callable penalty. It was the correct call.

We've already had speculation about how the referees controversy will affect Roger Goodell's legacy as NFL commissioner. The issue, though, is bigger than that. Goodell's handling of the referees does hurt his legacy - but not for the reason most think it does. What the referee deal shows is that when he's not a thin-skinned bully, Goodell is a coward. He knuckled under to the referees association instead of holding them accountable for making monetary demands far beyond their worth. And the veteran crew (led by Gene Steratore) soon tried to make themselves the show again in the Browns-Ravens game. While the officiating quality may look better than with the replacement refs, it isn't.

The issue with replacement refs was simply a mixture of communication issues (fixable) and inexperience at this level of football (also fixable, with more game time and better effort by the supervising team the league set up for every game); it was never a problem of understanding the game. The other quality the replacements brought was they let the players play - over and over the comment was made over the various games that defensive players were actually able to go after receivers instead of being called for penalty without reason. The games themselves were noticeably more competitively physical and scoring was mostly unaffected - the Giants-Buccaneers 41-34 shootout, the Titans-Lions 44-41 overtime thriller, the 38-31 Bengals win over the Redskins, the 31-30 Patriots-Ravens grinder, were all among the best games in years. The gripe about player fights was mostly hot air, with the Ravens showing their reputation for dirty and undisciplined play, a reputation they have periodically displayed regardless of who the refs are.

 The league should have stuck it out for the season with the replacement refs and worked far better than they seemed to do on communication issues. So where Goodell failed with the referees controversy was in knuckling under to the officials' union. It's the latest failure of leadership he has shown. The first was "Spygate," the scandal where the Patriots were accused of illegally videotaping opposing coaching staffs and their signals from the sideline. Goodell made it a massive controversy and the Mainstream Sports Media piled into his crusade against Belichick by never dissenting from him, even though the actual Article in the league constitution as well as related Miscelleneous Rules allow what Belichick was actually doing. Goodell, however, took it personally and went after the Patriots hard and did so by cherry-picking a league constitution he clearly hadn't read to justify smearing Belichick.

Years later he did it again with the New Orleans Saints over "Bountygate" - the allegation that players were taking side bets over hits on opposing players. Goodell smeared the Saints as practicing an assassination program - but the Saints players in question, after being suspended by Goodell, fought back - and won in court when the league's evidence consisted entirely of assumptions and accusations - and displayed mind-numbing ignorance of football, where a big part of the object is hitting.

The running controversies continue to raise questions about Goodell's competence to be Commissioner of the NFL, because what the world has seen is a thin-skinned bully whose knowledge of the game over which he lords is slipshod at best and this ignorance is driven by a moralistic rage. Truly the NFL needs to reexamine the competence of its Commissioner.  

UPDATE: Goodell's decision to hand over the Saints Bounty investigation to former commissioner Paul Tagliabue was surprising and also an indication Goodell may have seen he's in over his head.


UPDATE II: The inferior quality of the "real" referees was shown again with an atrociously wrong offensive pass interference call against Brandon Lloyd in the Patriots-Jets game by Jeff Triplette.

Lost in the controversy was this huge analysis proving Tate's touchdown was legitimate.