Tuesday, December 31, 2013
Politico Jumps in the Benghazi Debate
The website Politico examines the recent controversy over Benghazi and while it gets much of the debate right it repeats the mistake of refusing to acknowledge Islamo-Arab terrorism is an interconnected attack rather than nonexistent "rogue" groups. Such intellectual laziness is harmful to defeating the enemy.
Sunday, December 29, 2013
NY Times Whitewashes Al Qaeda Link to Benghazi
The NY Times published a piece on the Benghazi attack that tries to support the two central myths about it - that it was not an Al Qaeda attack and it was provoked by an anti-Islam video. The problem is the Times in October 2012 showed that Al Qaeda's involvement with the Benghazi attack was manifest. In short, the Times is whitewashing Benghazi to cover the Obama regime's ass for letting the enemy escape.
Wednesday, December 25, 2013
Down To The Wire In Week 17
So we've reached Week 17 of the NFL season and the battle for some playoff spots will be settled. It's been another season living up to the hype that is the NFL, a season of huge upsets, uninspiring letdowns, bitter disappointment, and outright surprise. It's one more round before the big round begins (and the inevitable replays of Jim Mora's soundbite about the playoffs begin as well). So we take a look at Week 17 -
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Steelers over Browns - The bad news for the Browns is they once again don't have anything to play for while the Steelers face a must-win to have any chance however unrealistic of making the playoffs. The good news is the Browns this year finally have shown signs of getting a legitimate program going, and it's shown in legitimately competitive efforts the last month. The Steelers for their part look like a mess and look to be getting worse instead of better.
Bengals over Ravens - The Ravens are well ahead of where a lot of people expected them to be this season to even be in playoff contention after basically blowing up the roster and overpaying Joe Flacco. That decision may begin haunting the Ravens after exposure of his weaknesses as a quarterback last week; one wonders how well the Bengals will exploit the weaknesses the Ravens have on both sides of the ball, especially as they nearly sealed the deal in Baltimore but ultimately didn't, and their offense has been rather inconsistent since the first meeting.
Vikings over Lions - Two of the big letdowns of the season square off one final time before 2014 with probable coaching and even front office changes for Detroit on the horizon and possible changes in Minnesota as well as the Vikings close out the Metrodome. That the Lions have fallen apart as they have perhaps was forseeable after their inability to handle success in 2012.
Dolphins over NY Jets - Rex Ryan told his players last week of the story he will be fired; it is odd that some advocate he be kept on given that his win total in five seasons won't surpass 42 and he accomplished nothing in terms of building a program; on the contrary he created a culture of bluster, poor discipline, and ineptitude. Joe Philbin in Miami meanwhile has implanted a culture that is steadily getting better.
Titans over Texans - Rumor is one or both of these teams will go after Penn State's Bill O'Brien; both have a legitimate case for his services but Tennessee has a much better record and a better roster for O'Brien to work with beginning with Jake Locker; I'm not buying the story the Titans are giving up on him after just two seasons as a starter, especially given the growth he showed as a quarterback in 2013. I do see Ryan Fitzpatrick being let go after this game for one of the most bitterly disappointing seasons a quarterback can have.
Jaguars over Colts - The Jaguars are 4-3 since the bye week and Gus Bradley clearly has them on an upswing, while the Colts got an important win over Kansas City but have overall looked a little scattershot the last two months of the season; the Jaguars also usually play the Colts tough.
Redskins over NY Giants - I'm baffled that the Giants may keep Tom Coughlin after this season given his history of second-half collapses; they've lost three of their last five after a four-game win streak. The Redskins have Kirk Cousins amid the chaos of whether Mike Shanahan gets fired or not; regardless Cousins shouldn't be considered trade bait; he has more upside than Robert Griffin has.
Panthers over Falcons - The Falcons have a lot of questions to ask, beginning with Matt Ryan, who has put up good numbers but who hasn't shown much in the way of clutch play in 2013. The Panthers race to the playoffs and look to steal the NFC South title from a faltering New Orleans squad.
Saints over Buccaneers - The Saints have been bad on the road this year and finish their regular season against the never-in-it Bucs. The Josh Freeman fiasco killed the season for the Bucs and now they have to pick up the pieces and start anew in 2014.
Seahawks over Rams - With just one win over a division foe, the Rams face the task of a rare win over the Seahawks, a team good enough to get to the Superbowl but who isn't unbeatable at home. Fisher has gotten much better play out of Kellen Clemens than I suspect anyone bargained for.
Packers over Bears - The Bears were ripped to shreds last week, and they host a Packers squad that has averaged 30 points a game the last three weeks. When they had the opportunity to put away the division, the Bears came up very small yet again, and it's impossible to trust Jay Cutler. The Packers for their part have questions to ask of their quarterbacks after Matt Flynn did in two games what Aaron Rodgers has shown his whole career he's not capable of doing - stage a comeback.
Broncos over Raiders - The Raiders organization is being rebuilt top to bottom and the process is slow enough that it's the Same Old Raiders finishing up another lost season, the eleventh such since 2002. Peyton Manning has the touchdown record again and the number one AFC seed.
Cardinals over 49ers - Both have the playoffs to play for and the Cardinals have been the team overlooked by everyone this season; they also are the team that ended Seattle's home win streak, and they get a Niners squad that looked pretty shaky in escaping the Monday Night win over the Falcons.
Chargers over Chiefs - Alex Smith's limits as a quarterback are showing up again; one of them is a winless career record over the Chargers, and the Chargers have more to play for right now than Kansas City does.
Patriots over Bills - The Bills have played the Patriots hard for the last five seasons but the Patriots have been the most battle-tested team in the league and appear to be getting stronger; after three straight comeback wins (led by the biggest such in club history) and a thorough manhandling of the Ravens, the Patriots are shooting to secure a bye week with an outside chance at the number one seed in the AFC.
Eagles over Cowboys - The Eagles have a program that's working. The Cowboys are a mess with their starting quarterback situation unsettled going into the game. It's the same old scenario for the clueless Cowboys and the result will be the same; the only disappointment is if the Eagles don't hang over 54 on the Cowboys like they did the Bears.
To paraphrase a cliche of one Bob Lobel - why can't more teams have offenses like that?
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Steelers over Browns - The bad news for the Browns is they once again don't have anything to play for while the Steelers face a must-win to have any chance however unrealistic of making the playoffs. The good news is the Browns this year finally have shown signs of getting a legitimate program going, and it's shown in legitimately competitive efforts the last month. The Steelers for their part look like a mess and look to be getting worse instead of better.
Bengals over Ravens - The Ravens are well ahead of where a lot of people expected them to be this season to even be in playoff contention after basically blowing up the roster and overpaying Joe Flacco. That decision may begin haunting the Ravens after exposure of his weaknesses as a quarterback last week; one wonders how well the Bengals will exploit the weaknesses the Ravens have on both sides of the ball, especially as they nearly sealed the deal in Baltimore but ultimately didn't, and their offense has been rather inconsistent since the first meeting.
Vikings over Lions - Two of the big letdowns of the season square off one final time before 2014 with probable coaching and even front office changes for Detroit on the horizon and possible changes in Minnesota as well as the Vikings close out the Metrodome. That the Lions have fallen apart as they have perhaps was forseeable after their inability to handle success in 2012.
Dolphins over NY Jets - Rex Ryan told his players last week of the story he will be fired; it is odd that some advocate he be kept on given that his win total in five seasons won't surpass 42 and he accomplished nothing in terms of building a program; on the contrary he created a culture of bluster, poor discipline, and ineptitude. Joe Philbin in Miami meanwhile has implanted a culture that is steadily getting better.
Titans over Texans - Rumor is one or both of these teams will go after Penn State's Bill O'Brien; both have a legitimate case for his services but Tennessee has a much better record and a better roster for O'Brien to work with beginning with Jake Locker; I'm not buying the story the Titans are giving up on him after just two seasons as a starter, especially given the growth he showed as a quarterback in 2013. I do see Ryan Fitzpatrick being let go after this game for one of the most bitterly disappointing seasons a quarterback can have.
Jaguars over Colts - The Jaguars are 4-3 since the bye week and Gus Bradley clearly has them on an upswing, while the Colts got an important win over Kansas City but have overall looked a little scattershot the last two months of the season; the Jaguars also usually play the Colts tough.
Redskins over NY Giants - I'm baffled that the Giants may keep Tom Coughlin after this season given his history of second-half collapses; they've lost three of their last five after a four-game win streak. The Redskins have Kirk Cousins amid the chaos of whether Mike Shanahan gets fired or not; regardless Cousins shouldn't be considered trade bait; he has more upside than Robert Griffin has.
Panthers over Falcons - The Falcons have a lot of questions to ask, beginning with Matt Ryan, who has put up good numbers but who hasn't shown much in the way of clutch play in 2013. The Panthers race to the playoffs and look to steal the NFC South title from a faltering New Orleans squad.
Saints over Buccaneers - The Saints have been bad on the road this year and finish their regular season against the never-in-it Bucs. The Josh Freeman fiasco killed the season for the Bucs and now they have to pick up the pieces and start anew in 2014.
Seahawks over Rams - With just one win over a division foe, the Rams face the task of a rare win over the Seahawks, a team good enough to get to the Superbowl but who isn't unbeatable at home. Fisher has gotten much better play out of Kellen Clemens than I suspect anyone bargained for.
Packers over Bears - The Bears were ripped to shreds last week, and they host a Packers squad that has averaged 30 points a game the last three weeks. When they had the opportunity to put away the division, the Bears came up very small yet again, and it's impossible to trust Jay Cutler. The Packers for their part have questions to ask of their quarterbacks after Matt Flynn did in two games what Aaron Rodgers has shown his whole career he's not capable of doing - stage a comeback.
Broncos over Raiders - The Raiders organization is being rebuilt top to bottom and the process is slow enough that it's the Same Old Raiders finishing up another lost season, the eleventh such since 2002. Peyton Manning has the touchdown record again and the number one AFC seed.
Cardinals over 49ers - Both have the playoffs to play for and the Cardinals have been the team overlooked by everyone this season; they also are the team that ended Seattle's home win streak, and they get a Niners squad that looked pretty shaky in escaping the Monday Night win over the Falcons.
Chargers over Chiefs - Alex Smith's limits as a quarterback are showing up again; one of them is a winless career record over the Chargers, and the Chargers have more to play for right now than Kansas City does.
Patriots over Bills - The Bills have played the Patriots hard for the last five seasons but the Patriots have been the most battle-tested team in the league and appear to be getting stronger; after three straight comeback wins (led by the biggest such in club history) and a thorough manhandling of the Ravens, the Patriots are shooting to secure a bye week with an outside chance at the number one seed in the AFC.
Eagles over Cowboys - The Eagles have a program that's working. The Cowboys are a mess with their starting quarterback situation unsettled going into the game. It's the same old scenario for the clueless Cowboys and the result will be the same; the only disappointment is if the Eagles don't hang over 54 on the Cowboys like they did the Bears.
To paraphrase a cliche of one Bob Lobel - why can't more teams have offenses like that?
Monday, December 23, 2013
NFL Revelations In Week 16
Week 16 locked up a lot of playoff spots though sorting out seedings remains in order for Week 17. What transpired in Week 16 -
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OVERESTIMATIONS AND UNDERESTIMATIONS IN THE PATRIOTS-RAVENS GAME
- New England's 41-7 slaughter of the Ravens - the most points the Patriots have ever scored in a road game against either Baltimore NFL team - showcased several aspects missed by the prognosticators who almost without exception predicted a Ravens win -
The Patriots are more battle-tested than the Ravens - The Ravens were winning with a sputtering offense and were barely winning where the Patriots were generating offense and beating better competition - in worse circumstances - than what the Ravens had been facing.
The Patriots exposed Joe Flacco's fundamental weaknesses as a quarterback - We've long seen Joe Flacco, even with his enormous NFL success, display a constant penchant for throws that show little in the way of thought behind them. But this game truly exposed how overrated Flacco is - poor ability to read defenses, inability to process second or third reads or outright refusal to go to a checkdown even when checkdowns were open, and a decided lack of courage as a quarterback. That he's spent as much time as he has whining to media that he ought to be considered an elite quarterback is a red flag that he's not; one now wonders if going forward opposing teams will stop falling for his bluff.
Bill Belichick builds rosters that know how to win - This makes him the best GM in the league and further discredits the critics who attack his record in drafting, etc. That he makes mistakes is obvious enough; that his mistakes do not cost his team should also be obvious enough.
SEAHAWKS INVINCIBILITY PIERCED
- It was bound to happen and the Cardinals further aided their playoff chances by upending the Seahawks in the semi-dome they call home. It showcases that the Cardinals are a playoff power in waiting, though they still need to upgrade the quarterback position.
CHIEFS FALTERING AT WORST TIME - Kansas City's grip on the #5 seed is secure, but the Chiefs' four losses in their last six games - and a determined San Diego team on the horizon - indicate they've gotten what they can out of Alex Smith. Upgrading the quarterback is a must for a team that Andy Reid has in one year turned into a legitimate playoff contender.
EAGLES SET TO RULE THE NFC EAST ROOST - With Nick Foles as quarterback the Eagles are showing the muscle needed to reassume control of the NFC East amid the chaos enveloping the rest of the division.
THE LIONS PUT TO SLEEP TONIGHT
- It now seems certain Jim Schwartz will be fired from Detroit after the Lions have lost five of their last six games. Analysts are now starting to turn on Matthew Stafford as well for poor play, with the term "coach killer" now being used. I'm not ready to go that far, as Stafford looks substantially better than two true coach killers in Jay Cutler and Tony Romo.
PEYTON SETS RECORD AGAINST ZERO RESISTANCE - Peyton Manning nailed 51 touchdown throws by tossing four scores against a Houston team that gave up on the season around November. The question in this game is why Matt Schaub was starting given that his game is worthless now.
The rumor is the Texans will go after Bill O'Brien, the Penn State coach and ex-Patriots offensive coordinator. Bill O'Brien can flat-out coach.
ONE LAST (?) CELEBRATION AT THE STICK - Candlestick Park closed out its existence on Monday Night Football by hosting the moribund Atlanta Falcons; the Falcons actually made a game of it until coughing up a laughable pick-six and thus losing 34-24. It's fitting that a former NFC West foe of the Niners was the visiting team for the old ballpark's NFL swan song. That the Falcons came in as sacrificial lambs is also fitting, having won only ten times there in their history. Perhaps the wildest of those ten wins was in October 1991 when Chris Miller threw three touchdowns while Steve Young had two scores but also three interceptions. Norm Johnson's two field goals in the fourth sealed a 39-34 Falcons win.
The Niners now have a shot at upending the Seahawks for the division, so bet the over for the Niners here.
So it goes entering Monday Night Football
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OVERESTIMATIONS AND UNDERESTIMATIONS IN THE PATRIOTS-RAVENS GAME
- New England's 41-7 slaughter of the Ravens - the most points the Patriots have ever scored in a road game against either Baltimore NFL team - showcased several aspects missed by the prognosticators who almost without exception predicted a Ravens win -
The Patriots are more battle-tested than the Ravens - The Ravens were winning with a sputtering offense and were barely winning where the Patriots were generating offense and beating better competition - in worse circumstances - than what the Ravens had been facing.
The Patriots exposed Joe Flacco's fundamental weaknesses as a quarterback - We've long seen Joe Flacco, even with his enormous NFL success, display a constant penchant for throws that show little in the way of thought behind them. But this game truly exposed how overrated Flacco is - poor ability to read defenses, inability to process second or third reads or outright refusal to go to a checkdown even when checkdowns were open, and a decided lack of courage as a quarterback. That he's spent as much time as he has whining to media that he ought to be considered an elite quarterback is a red flag that he's not; one now wonders if going forward opposing teams will stop falling for his bluff.
Bill Belichick builds rosters that know how to win - This makes him the best GM in the league and further discredits the critics who attack his record in drafting, etc. That he makes mistakes is obvious enough; that his mistakes do not cost his team should also be obvious enough.
SEAHAWKS INVINCIBILITY PIERCED
- It was bound to happen and the Cardinals further aided their playoff chances by upending the Seahawks in the semi-dome they call home. It showcases that the Cardinals are a playoff power in waiting, though they still need to upgrade the quarterback position.
CHIEFS FALTERING AT WORST TIME - Kansas City's grip on the #5 seed is secure, but the Chiefs' four losses in their last six games - and a determined San Diego team on the horizon - indicate they've gotten what they can out of Alex Smith. Upgrading the quarterback is a must for a team that Andy Reid has in one year turned into a legitimate playoff contender.
EAGLES SET TO RULE THE NFC EAST ROOST - With Nick Foles as quarterback the Eagles are showing the muscle needed to reassume control of the NFC East amid the chaos enveloping the rest of the division.
THE LIONS PUT TO SLEEP TONIGHT
- It now seems certain Jim Schwartz will be fired from Detroit after the Lions have lost five of their last six games. Analysts are now starting to turn on Matthew Stafford as well for poor play, with the term "coach killer" now being used. I'm not ready to go that far, as Stafford looks substantially better than two true coach killers in Jay Cutler and Tony Romo.
PEYTON SETS RECORD AGAINST ZERO RESISTANCE - Peyton Manning nailed 51 touchdown throws by tossing four scores against a Houston team that gave up on the season around November. The question in this game is why Matt Schaub was starting given that his game is worthless now.
The rumor is the Texans will go after Bill O'Brien, the Penn State coach and ex-Patriots offensive coordinator. Bill O'Brien can flat-out coach.
ONE LAST (?) CELEBRATION AT THE STICK - Candlestick Park closed out its existence on Monday Night Football by hosting the moribund Atlanta Falcons; the Falcons actually made a game of it until coughing up a laughable pick-six and thus losing 34-24. It's fitting that a former NFC West foe of the Niners was the visiting team for the old ballpark's NFL swan song. That the Falcons came in as sacrificial lambs is also fitting, having won only ten times there in their history. Perhaps the wildest of those ten wins was in October 1991 when Chris Miller threw three touchdowns while Steve Young had two scores but also three interceptions. Norm Johnson's two field goals in the fourth sealed a 39-34 Falcons win.
The Niners now have a shot at upending the Seahawks for the division, so bet the over for the Niners here.
So it goes entering Monday Night Football
Saturday, December 21, 2013
Friday, December 20, 2013
The Fall of Government Embrace
What Obamacare's failure shows most is people are turning more and more against the concept of big government.
Thursday, December 19, 2013
Washington's Put-Off-For-Later Budgeting
The Ryan-Murray compromise is disliked by both Democrats and Republicans. That it is the only option for the moment - and does have some positives - ultimately doesn't change that it continues the refusal to kill money-draining entitlements that are crashing the economy.
While the piece linked is decidedly pessimistic about the compromise, it makes the mistake of assuming there won't be real reform down the road. The failure of Obamacare and the reality of entitlement bankrupcy - which helped force Democrats to let themselves be dragged kicking and screaming to 2011's sequester agreement that imposed some modest but nonetheless real spending cuts - indicates otherwise.
While the piece linked is decidedly pessimistic about the compromise, it makes the mistake of assuming there won't be real reform down the road. The failure of Obamacare and the reality of entitlement bankrupcy - which helped force Democrats to let themselves be dragged kicking and screaming to 2011's sequester agreement that imposed some modest but nonetheless real spending cuts - indicates otherwise.
Wednesday, December 18, 2013
NFL: Closing On The Playoffs
The league season is rapidly closing on the playoffs and curiously the AFC has become more muddled with three division leader upsets last week. A look at this coming week -
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Bills over Dolphins - The last nine meetings between these two have been a 5-4 split favoring Miami, and the Dolphins in 2013 have taken a major step toward becoming a viable division contender. The Bills have gotten E.J. Manuel back and he showed some good form in a win over the Jaguars last week. Neither offense is all that hot, and it's worth remembering the Dolphins had their hands full with an ostensibly bad Patriots defense last week.
Browns over NY Jets - The NY Jets have become......well, the NY Jets. The Cleveland Browns meanwhile have flat-out found some offense the last three weeks and have been showing the league they're not the pushovers they once were even at 4-10 and with a five-game losing skid.
Panthers over Saints - The Panthers are showing a toughness the Saints don't have and this rematch of the ugly loss two weeks ago gives the Panthers a path to the NFC South title.
Vikings over Bengals - The Vikings took a substantial step in winning without Adrian Peterson last week, and remain eighth in the league in points scored. They take on a Bengals squad that got embarrassed by the Steelers and has given the impression they're not ready for primetime.
Redskins over Cowboys - Kirk Cousins is now the Redskins quarterback and he already is an upgrade over Griffin III and more trustworthy than Tony Romo. It remains baffling that Romo continues getting benefit of the doubt in some circles (notably the CBS Sports webpage) when he doesn't deserve it.
Broncos over Texans
- Houston appears to have given up on the season and the dome in Houston benefits Peyton Manning even though he's lost his last two starts against the Texans.
Chiefs over Colts - The Chiefs remain a stout playoff-bound team while the Colts have been an erratic division champ.
Titans over Jaguars - Their seasons wrap up in two weeks so there's no particular pressure here. The Titans remain a stronger team than the Jaguars, having shown fight some championship teams don't have.
Rams over Buccaneers - The Bucs got beaten the last time they faced Jeff Fisher's Rams and have only one road win on their season. The Rams may be out of the playoffs but they're not out of finishing 8-8, a record they haven't reached since 2006.
Lions over NY Giants - The Monday Night loss did more than drop the Lions out of the division lead - with the Panthers and 49ers unable to finish lower than 10-6 the only chance the Lions now have for the playoffs is the division title at 9-7. They get a break here against a Giants squad that was never in contention from Week One and which is now in their patented Tom Coughlin second half collapse phase of the year.
Cardinals over Seahawks - The myth of Seahawks home invincibility is bound to get punctured at some point as they've been a little shaky at home as the season has gone on. The Cardinals remain in wildcard contention having won six of their last seven games and have scored at least 27 points in all six wins (and even looked respectable in the loss at Philly with a comeback attempt that fell short).
Patriots over Ravens - The rivalry of the AFC right now. The Ravens looked abysmal early in the year and have surged to five wins in their last six games. A surprising number of people are now looking at the Patriots as damaged goods after the loss in Miami, but the reality is the Patriots have played generally better competition than the Ravens, and are generating offense where the Ravens aren't. The win at Detroit was all field goals, the last a quasi-impossible bomb; the Ravens have broken 26 points only four times all season, a point total the Patriots have broken all but once since Week Five. The history of Joe Flacco over the Patriots is well known, but the Patriots are far more battle-tested than the Ravens plus have the motivation of taking on the Ravens in their corner.
There has also been the criticism that the Patriots don't run the ball in the second half of games, as though running five more times in the fourth quarter in Miami than they did was going to go anywhere but force more punts - the fact is no one in the league is winning because of the run. Also worth noting is Stevan Ridley, who is considered in some media circles as the Patriots' best runner, but who has all but played his way out of Foxboro between fumbling, a now-known attitude of defiance of the coaches, and with a lower Yards Per Carry (4.3) than LeGarrette Blount, Brandon Bolden, and Shane Vereen, and a noticeable lack of explosiveness in his last two games as he appears to be thinking instead of running (a result of overcoaching previously seen with the ruination of cornerback Devin McCourty after his 2010 season).
Packers over Steelers - Though Aaron Rodgers is campaigning to become starter again, the fact is Matt Flynn has made the Packers a different team - a team that now can rally to win instead of be frontrunning frauds as they've always been under "Pass The Buck" Rodgers. The erratic nature of the Steelers is too prevalent to trust them to pull off an upset here.
Chargers over Raiders - The Chargers have a slim playoff shot and get a beneficial game against a Raiders team going through yet another failure of a season.
Eagles over Bears - Jay Cutler can pull an Abraham Lincoln yet the end phrase of President Lincoln's famous saying - you can't fool all the people all the time - remains the truth. The Eagles have a division title in their grasp and the Bears are not good enough to stymie them.
49ers over Falcons - It is stunning how far and how fast the Falcons have fallen. The 49ers can realistically lock up a playoff spot on Monday Night.
We thus await Sunday hoping the snowstorms are over.
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Bills over Dolphins - The last nine meetings between these two have been a 5-4 split favoring Miami, and the Dolphins in 2013 have taken a major step toward becoming a viable division contender. The Bills have gotten E.J. Manuel back and he showed some good form in a win over the Jaguars last week. Neither offense is all that hot, and it's worth remembering the Dolphins had their hands full with an ostensibly bad Patriots defense last week.
Browns over NY Jets - The NY Jets have become......well, the NY Jets. The Cleveland Browns meanwhile have flat-out found some offense the last three weeks and have been showing the league they're not the pushovers they once were even at 4-10 and with a five-game losing skid.
Panthers over Saints - The Panthers are showing a toughness the Saints don't have and this rematch of the ugly loss two weeks ago gives the Panthers a path to the NFC South title.
Vikings over Bengals - The Vikings took a substantial step in winning without Adrian Peterson last week, and remain eighth in the league in points scored. They take on a Bengals squad that got embarrassed by the Steelers and has given the impression they're not ready for primetime.
Redskins over Cowboys - Kirk Cousins is now the Redskins quarterback and he already is an upgrade over Griffin III and more trustworthy than Tony Romo. It remains baffling that Romo continues getting benefit of the doubt in some circles (notably the CBS Sports webpage) when he doesn't deserve it.
Broncos over Texans
- Houston appears to have given up on the season and the dome in Houston benefits Peyton Manning even though he's lost his last two starts against the Texans.
Chiefs over Colts - The Chiefs remain a stout playoff-bound team while the Colts have been an erratic division champ.
Titans over Jaguars - Their seasons wrap up in two weeks so there's no particular pressure here. The Titans remain a stronger team than the Jaguars, having shown fight some championship teams don't have.
Rams over Buccaneers - The Bucs got beaten the last time they faced Jeff Fisher's Rams and have only one road win on their season. The Rams may be out of the playoffs but they're not out of finishing 8-8, a record they haven't reached since 2006.
Lions over NY Giants - The Monday Night loss did more than drop the Lions out of the division lead - with the Panthers and 49ers unable to finish lower than 10-6 the only chance the Lions now have for the playoffs is the division title at 9-7. They get a break here against a Giants squad that was never in contention from Week One and which is now in their patented Tom Coughlin second half collapse phase of the year.
Cardinals over Seahawks - The myth of Seahawks home invincibility is bound to get punctured at some point as they've been a little shaky at home as the season has gone on. The Cardinals remain in wildcard contention having won six of their last seven games and have scored at least 27 points in all six wins (and even looked respectable in the loss at Philly with a comeback attempt that fell short).
Patriots over Ravens - The rivalry of the AFC right now. The Ravens looked abysmal early in the year and have surged to five wins in their last six games. A surprising number of people are now looking at the Patriots as damaged goods after the loss in Miami, but the reality is the Patriots have played generally better competition than the Ravens, and are generating offense where the Ravens aren't. The win at Detroit was all field goals, the last a quasi-impossible bomb; the Ravens have broken 26 points only four times all season, a point total the Patriots have broken all but once since Week Five. The history of Joe Flacco over the Patriots is well known, but the Patriots are far more battle-tested than the Ravens plus have the motivation of taking on the Ravens in their corner.
There has also been the criticism that the Patriots don't run the ball in the second half of games, as though running five more times in the fourth quarter in Miami than they did was going to go anywhere but force more punts - the fact is no one in the league is winning because of the run. Also worth noting is Stevan Ridley, who is considered in some media circles as the Patriots' best runner, but who has all but played his way out of Foxboro between fumbling, a now-known attitude of defiance of the coaches, and with a lower Yards Per Carry (4.3) than LeGarrette Blount, Brandon Bolden, and Shane Vereen, and a noticeable lack of explosiveness in his last two games as he appears to be thinking instead of running (a result of overcoaching previously seen with the ruination of cornerback Devin McCourty after his 2010 season).
Packers over Steelers - Though Aaron Rodgers is campaigning to become starter again, the fact is Matt Flynn has made the Packers a different team - a team that now can rally to win instead of be frontrunning frauds as they've always been under "Pass The Buck" Rodgers. The erratic nature of the Steelers is too prevalent to trust them to pull off an upset here.
Chargers over Raiders - The Chargers have a slim playoff shot and get a beneficial game against a Raiders team going through yet another failure of a season.
Eagles over Bears - Jay Cutler can pull an Abraham Lincoln yet the end phrase of President Lincoln's famous saying - you can't fool all the people all the time - remains the truth. The Eagles have a division title in their grasp and the Bears are not good enough to stymie them.
49ers over Falcons - It is stunning how far and how fast the Falcons have fallen. The 49ers can realistically lock up a playoff spot on Monday Night.
We thus await Sunday hoping the snowstorms are over.
Monday, December 16, 2013
Morocco Should Be the Model
Morocco Should Be the Model:
It has long been fashionable to describe Turkey as a model for the Middle East, if not the Islamic world. However, Morocco has proven to be the real model for a post-Islamo/Arab-Imperial Middle east.
It has long been fashionable to describe Turkey as a model for the Middle East, if not the Islamic world. However, Morocco has proven to be the real model for a post-Islamo/Arab-Imperial Middle east.
Sunday, December 15, 2013
NFL's Week 15 Locks
So the NFL has hit Week 15 and the wildness of last week's 100-plus touchdown eruption may not have been matched but there were a number of jaw-dropping finishes heading into crunch time. What stood out from Week 15 -
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The Packers may have to rethink Aaron Rodgers - Matt Flynn led the biggest comeback since the Patriots wiped out Denver's 24-0 lead; down 26-3 Flynn exploded the Packers to five touchdowns marred by a missed two-point try. Flynn has thus done what Aaron Rodgers has never been able to do - lead a comeback win for the Packers. Given the Packers' uneven play this year Flynn is more than justifying usurping Rodgers as Packers starter.
The Dolphins are becoming the AFC East rival the Patriots have generally lacked - A rumor began circulating that the Patriots, banged up all around, may bring back Donte Stallworth for their stretch run, a good idea given how Stallworth fits the offense and has given it a deep threat it hasn't really had since he was lost for the balance of 2012. They can doubly use Stallworth to help a receiving corps that isn't weak but nonetheless can use such help after seeing the Dolphins pull off the win, a win that puts Miami on a path for a winning season and perhaps the playoffs - though one can wonder if the Dolphins are ready for a playoff run right now.
Where is the run doing much good for the Patriots? - Over and over I hear the criticism that the Patriots abandon the run too early and that criticism was made after this game - this even though the Patriots outrushed the Dolphins 96 yards to 81. Nowhere in any of these games can I find any area where the Patriots would do better running the ball, especially with Stevan Ridley having proven untrustworthy between fumbles and reported insubordination with the coaches - curiously a common thread in the Belichick era among such players as Ty Law, Asante Samuel, Brandon Meriweather, and Richard Seymour.
The Saints may be in trouble - New Orleans' road woes of recent were on display in St. Louis again and they have to go to Carolina next week with the Panthers wanting revenge after last week's rout.
The Seahawks remain the favorites - Not even in 2005 have the Seahawks ever looked this powerful.
The Favrelous Favreness Of Fitzpatrick - A pick-six by Ryan Fitzpatrick put the Cardinals up 34-17, yet the Tennessee Titans nearly topped everyone else. Fitzpatrick made a hell of a run to redemption as the Titans scored 17 points in the final five minutes to force overtime - and then Fitzpatrick suddenly became Brett Favre; he threw another interception in overtime, setting up the Cardinals' winning field goal. Steve McNair was the heart of the Titans because he had the heart of a lion; the 2013 Titans have shown more fight than many championship teams, heart McNair would be proud of. And why they're 5-9 instead of 10-4 is simple - Fitzpatrick has legitimate talent, has numbers, makes plays, yet never seals the deal. Would the Titans be 10-4 or close to that if Jake Locker was still playing? I cannot fathom that they wouldn't.
Kirk Cousins needs to be the future of the Redskins - With RGIII proving a one-shot wonder, Kirk Cousins showed exactly why Griffin ought have no future with the Skins. Cousins came into the game basically cold and damn near pulled off the win over the Falcons. The death of the read-option should dissuade anyone who thinks Griffin III should remain starter.
The Rams will become a contender - Reaching 8-8 may not be achievable; nonetheless the Rams have actually shown signs of getting better in Jeff Fisher's second season there.
The Vikings showed something - Matt Cassel pulled one of the shockers of the weekend by crushing the Eagles by three scores; coming with Adrian Peterson out, it shows the Vikings aren't the one-trick pony most assume they are.
For the Chiefs, now comes the hard part - The Chiefs are in the playoffs in Andy Reid's first year; now comes the hard part - they need to win a playoff game for the first time since Joe Montana's final playoff win in 1993. The last time the Chiefs were even competitive in a playoff game was 2003 against Peyton Manning's Colts.
The Jaguars are a legitimate threat for 2014 - It took a horrific first half of the season for the Jaguars to learn the lessons needed to learn; it's now showing even though they're only 4-10. Clearly players are buying into the program and it's beginning to work.
Houston may win the Suck For Johnny race - It seems foregone that the Houston Texans - twenty years after the earthquake that turned out to be the end of the Houston Oilers - will have the #1 draft pick, and quarterback is the glaring need for a squad with genuine talent. One wonders how likely it becomes that Johnny Manziel becomes Houston's next starter.
The not-ready-for-primetime-Bengals - Facing a game that would put them to the next level, the Bengals faltered again. The Bengals remain a talented team with real promise, but they haven't gone another level.
The Lions are not getting better - We may now see the upper management of the Lions blown up after a hideous loss to a pathetic Ravens team that needed six field goals, one of them a 61-yarder, to outlast a Lions offense that didn't show up at all. Matthew Stafford's three picks were atrocious and kept the Ravens alive in the AFC North while costing his team in a suddenly-crowded NFC North race.
It was an ugly ending to what was an amazing NFL weekend.
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The Packers may have to rethink Aaron Rodgers - Matt Flynn led the biggest comeback since the Patriots wiped out Denver's 24-0 lead; down 26-3 Flynn exploded the Packers to five touchdowns marred by a missed two-point try. Flynn has thus done what Aaron Rodgers has never been able to do - lead a comeback win for the Packers. Given the Packers' uneven play this year Flynn is more than justifying usurping Rodgers as Packers starter.
The Dolphins are becoming the AFC East rival the Patriots have generally lacked - A rumor began circulating that the Patriots, banged up all around, may bring back Donte Stallworth for their stretch run, a good idea given how Stallworth fits the offense and has given it a deep threat it hasn't really had since he was lost for the balance of 2012. They can doubly use Stallworth to help a receiving corps that isn't weak but nonetheless can use such help after seeing the Dolphins pull off the win, a win that puts Miami on a path for a winning season and perhaps the playoffs - though one can wonder if the Dolphins are ready for a playoff run right now.
Where is the run doing much good for the Patriots? - Over and over I hear the criticism that the Patriots abandon the run too early and that criticism was made after this game - this even though the Patriots outrushed the Dolphins 96 yards to 81. Nowhere in any of these games can I find any area where the Patriots would do better running the ball, especially with Stevan Ridley having proven untrustworthy between fumbles and reported insubordination with the coaches - curiously a common thread in the Belichick era among such players as Ty Law, Asante Samuel, Brandon Meriweather, and Richard Seymour.
The Saints may be in trouble - New Orleans' road woes of recent were on display in St. Louis again and they have to go to Carolina next week with the Panthers wanting revenge after last week's rout.
The Seahawks remain the favorites - Not even in 2005 have the Seahawks ever looked this powerful.
The Favrelous Favreness Of Fitzpatrick - A pick-six by Ryan Fitzpatrick put the Cardinals up 34-17, yet the Tennessee Titans nearly topped everyone else. Fitzpatrick made a hell of a run to redemption as the Titans scored 17 points in the final five minutes to force overtime - and then Fitzpatrick suddenly became Brett Favre; he threw another interception in overtime, setting up the Cardinals' winning field goal. Steve McNair was the heart of the Titans because he had the heart of a lion; the 2013 Titans have shown more fight than many championship teams, heart McNair would be proud of. And why they're 5-9 instead of 10-4 is simple - Fitzpatrick has legitimate talent, has numbers, makes plays, yet never seals the deal. Would the Titans be 10-4 or close to that if Jake Locker was still playing? I cannot fathom that they wouldn't.
Kirk Cousins needs to be the future of the Redskins - With RGIII proving a one-shot wonder, Kirk Cousins showed exactly why Griffin ought have no future with the Skins. Cousins came into the game basically cold and damn near pulled off the win over the Falcons. The death of the read-option should dissuade anyone who thinks Griffin III should remain starter.
The Rams will become a contender - Reaching 8-8 may not be achievable; nonetheless the Rams have actually shown signs of getting better in Jeff Fisher's second season there.
The Vikings showed something - Matt Cassel pulled one of the shockers of the weekend by crushing the Eagles by three scores; coming with Adrian Peterson out, it shows the Vikings aren't the one-trick pony most assume they are.
For the Chiefs, now comes the hard part - The Chiefs are in the playoffs in Andy Reid's first year; now comes the hard part - they need to win a playoff game for the first time since Joe Montana's final playoff win in 1993. The last time the Chiefs were even competitive in a playoff game was 2003 against Peyton Manning's Colts.
The Jaguars are a legitimate threat for 2014 - It took a horrific first half of the season for the Jaguars to learn the lessons needed to learn; it's now showing even though they're only 4-10. Clearly players are buying into the program and it's beginning to work.
Houston may win the Suck For Johnny race - It seems foregone that the Houston Texans - twenty years after the earthquake that turned out to be the end of the Houston Oilers - will have the #1 draft pick, and quarterback is the glaring need for a squad with genuine talent. One wonders how likely it becomes that Johnny Manziel becomes Houston's next starter.
The not-ready-for-primetime-Bengals - Facing a game that would put them to the next level, the Bengals faltered again. The Bengals remain a talented team with real promise, but they haven't gone another level.
The Lions are not getting better - We may now see the upper management of the Lions blown up after a hideous loss to a pathetic Ravens team that needed six field goals, one of them a 61-yarder, to outlast a Lions offense that didn't show up at all. Matthew Stafford's three picks were atrocious and kept the Ravens alive in the AFC North while costing his team in a suddenly-crowded NFC North race.
It was an ugly ending to what was an amazing NFL weekend.
Saturday, December 14, 2013
The Marino Mythology Redux
The Cold Hard Football Facts site of Kerry Byrne has revolutionized football analysis in the decade-plus it has been active, and among its signature analyses is The Marino Mythology, a piece dissecting the defenses Miami Dolphins fans have used in response to Dan Marino's inability to win a Superbowl. It is especially relevant now because the excuses used for Marino are now being cited for Peyton Manning, who managed to win Superbowl50 and finished his career having lost thirteen of twenty-seven career playoff games - indeed, it is worth noting that Tom Brady by himself has twenty-five playoff wins (five of them Superbowls) while Marino and Manning have twenty-two combined.
One of the Marino myths is that he was saddled with weak defenses - this isn't true, as Marino played with top-12 scoring defenses seven times (twice with #1 scoring defenses, 1983 and 1998). It is worth noting because Tom Brady has been accused of having good defenses for his Superbowl runs, except the reality of his defenses was they were grossly overrated and consistently failed in big games -
The defense in 2001 could not stop the Raiders from surging to a ten-point fourth-quarter lead, and then Brady rescued it with three scoring drives for the 16-13 overtime win.
Given a 14-point lead against the Rams in the Superbowl, the Patriots defense disintegrated, and Brady rescued it with the first walkoff scoring drive in Superbowl history.
Against the Panthers in 2003 the Patriots defense was ripped to shreds as the Panthers erased deficits of 11 points and then seven points; once again Brady led the rescue.
In 2004 the defense gave up a late touchdown to the Eagles.
The Patriots defense infamously disintegrated twice against the NY Giants when given leads by Brady - the David Tyree miracle remains the ultimate black mark on the Patriots defense.
The Patriots defense was hammered by the Seahawks until Brady, down 24-14, led the first biggest comeback in Superbowl history - and even then the defense was speared to the one-yard line until the ultimate shocker of a play.
The defense was bullied for over thirty-five minutes against the Atlanta Falcons - and it was Brady leading the biggest comeback in Superbowl history.
The defense argument has also been cited with Peyton Manning, as his 2006 Superbowl was credited to a Colts defense getting hot in the playoffs while his 2015 title was credited to the Broncos defense. The fact here is also opposite to the myth - Manning's first two Superbowl runs (2006 and 2009) came against matchups overwhelmingly in his favor - both times he faced the Baltimore Ravens, a team he utterly owned at that point in the middle of his nine-game winning streak against them; in 2006 he faced the Kansas City Chiefs, a team he's lost just once to in six career games, and after his stunning AFC Title win over the Patriots - in which his vaunted defense was shredded for 34 points - he faced the cupcake of the Rex Grossman Chicago Bears in the Superbowl; in 2009 he faced a semi-cupcake in the always-erratic New York Jets, a squad that has nonetheless beaten him in the playoffs twice. His 2013 Superbowl run came against two perennially tough matchups in San Diego and New England; he somehow won both then failed completely in the Superbowl against a Seahawks team the Patriots shot down the next year. His 2015 run - coming after he was benched and then inexplicably reinserted - came against a shaky Steelers team, then he barely escaped another Brady comeback, then faced a Panthers team that suddenly got scared of the fact of being in the Superbowl. Manning played poorly, Cam Newton played scared, and the Broncos defense did nothing better than escape when it faced an opponent not intimidated by the moment.
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The other signature Marino myth is that he lacked an adequate running game. Here also the myth is false, and it is worth expanding on for CHFF's original piece missed a key fact about Superbowl history - the number of Superbowl winners with inferior run games to what Marino had.
Here are the Yards Per Carry run games of Superbowl winners -
1966 Packers - 3.5 YPC
1967 Packers - 4.0
1968 NY Jets - 3.4
1969 Chiefs - 4.3
1970 Colts - 3.3
1971 Cowboys - 4.4
1972 Dolphins - 4.8
1973 Dolphins - 5.0
1974 Steelers - 4.4
1975 Steelers - 4.5
1976 Raiders - 4.1
1977 Cowboys - 4.2
1978 Steelers - 3.6
1979 Steelers - 4.6
1980 Raiders - 4.0
1981 49ers - 3.5
1982 Redskins - 3.6
1983 Raiders - 4.1
1984 49ers - 4.6
1985 Bears - 4.5
1986 NY Giants - 4.0
1987 Redskins - 4.2
1988 49ers - 4.8
1989 49ers - 4.0
1990 NY Giants - 3.8
1991 Redskins - 3.8
1992 Cowboys - 4.2
1993 Cowboys - 4.4
1994 49ers - 3.9
1995 Cowboys - 4.4
1996 Packers - 4.0
1997 Broncos - 4.6
1998 Broncos - 4.7
1999 Rams - 4.8
2000 Ravens - 4.3
2001 Patriots - 3.8
2002 Buccaneers - 3.8
2003 Patriots - 3.4
2004 Patriots - 4.1
2005 Steelers - 4.0
2006 Colts - 4.0
2007 NY Giants - 4.6
2008 Steelers - 3.7
2009 Saints - 4.5
2010 Packers - 3.8
2011 NY Giants - 3.5
2012 Ravens - 4.3
2013 Seahawks - 4.3
2014 Patriots - 3.9
2015 Broncos - 4.2
2016 Patriots - 3.9
Here are the Dolphins run games in YPC in Marino's career -
1983 - 3.8 YPC
1984 - 4.0
1985 - 3.9
1986 - 4.4
1987 - 4.1
1988 - 3.6
1989 - 3.3
1990 - 3.7
1991 - 3.6
1992 - 3.7
1993 - 3.5
1994 - 3.8
1995 - 3.6
1996 - 3.5
1997 - 3.1
1998 - 3.4
1999 - 3.3
In all just eleven Superbowl champions had a better run game than what Marino had.
It is also worth noting how teams ostensibly with great ground games such as the Lombardi Packers and No-Name Defense-era Dolphins were superior passing teams rather than winning because they ran the ball well. The bottom line here is that Marino had run games superior to multiple Superbowl champions for basically the whole of his 17-season career. The argument that he lacked a run game is not only false, it is dishonest.
The counterargument I've heard from Marino defenders is that he didn't have "a 1,000-yard rusher, a stud running back like Barry Sanders or Emmitt Smith." It doesn't matter. Sanders never got to a Superbowl because, though he got some genuinely good seasons out of Scott Mitchell, overall it was quarterbacking that was the Sanders-era Lions' downfall. Smith ostensibly made the Aikman-era Cowboys offense go, except much of his yardage came after Aikman's passing had put the Cowboys up over their opponent (not my words, those of NFL Films analyst Greg Cosell). Smith needed Aikman more than Aikman needed Smith.
As for 1,000-yard rushers, the greatest rushing attacks in league history are the 1976 and 1978 New England Patriots, who combined for 6,122 yards on the ground - the 1976 team averaged FIVE yards per carry at 2,957 yards (higher than every Superbowl champion except the 1973 Dolphins who only tie the 1976 Pats at Five YPC) while the 1978 team's 3,165 yards (4.7 YPC) remains the most in league history - and not once did they have a 1,000-yard rusher.
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Another Marino myth is that he had to carry the Dolphins - an assertion better suited to Tom Brady and Drew Brees than to Marino. Marino inherited a Superbowl power and spent his career doing less with more - Marino ended up as a quarterback whose average season was 10-6 - the same as Steve McNair, who unlike Marino had to help bring the Oilers/Titans franchise to contention after the tumultuous 1995-98 move from Houston to Tennessee; he did that and made the Titans a playoff contender and made himself league co-MVP in 2003. Further worth noting is that McNair brought the Titans to the doorstep of overtime in his one Superbowl, where Marino was outclassed from the opening gun in his.
This myth is also true of Peyton Manning, though Manning played a bigger role in resurrecting the Colts at the time of his drafting - the Colts between 1977's "Ghost To The Post" playoff loss to the Oakland Raiders and the off-season 1999 trade of Marshall Faulk to the Rams won just 107 games; they reached 141 wins in Manning's thirteen seasons there.
Yet even here Manning had a better roster than his archenemy Tom Brady - Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Marcus Pollard, plus some quality running backs - and when he joined the Broncos he had Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas (of Tim Tebow vs. the Steelers fame) and then got Julius Thomas for the 2013 season. Manning has not had to build rosters the way Tom Brady has, and the way Marino never did; it is noteworthy that Manning quit on several receivers, notably Pierre Garcon, who has become an effective weapon for the Washington Redskins.
Then there is the big-game quarterback myth. Marino won only eight playoff games and just one of them on the road (1999 at Seattle) while Manning won fourteen of twenty-seven playoff games with nine playoff runs in which he failed to win one game. The game usually cited in Marino retrospectives is the Fake Spike Game against the NY Jets - a regular-season game against a team that finished 6-10.
More relevant to Marino's career is the 51-45 overtime loss to the Jets in 1986 - up 45-38 in the fourth quarter - this after his defense kept forcing Jets turnovers - Marino only needed to convert one first down to win - and he didn't do it, a cutting illustration of Marino's career. His 1995 games where he broke Fran Tarkenton's records for touchdowns, yardage, and completions were all losses - 27-24 and 36-28 to the Colts, 34-17 to the Patriots - and another fitting illustration of the illusions surrounding his career.
Also instructive is the play-by-play sheet of Marino's only Superbowl -
Dolphins drives in Superbowl XIX -
No score - Marino drive ends in field goal - 3-0
SFO takes 7-3 lead - Marino drive, five straight completions, touchdown - 7-3
SFO takes 14-10 lead - Marino drive three plays and punt
SFO takes 21-10 lead - Marino drive, two incompletions and punt
SFO takes 28-10 lead - Marino drive ends in field goal - 28-13
SFO up 28-13 - SFO fumbles kickoff, Dolphins field goal, end of half - 28-16 halftime
SFO up 28-16 - Marino drive, sacked once, three plays, punt
SFO takes 31-16 lead - Marino drive, sacked twice, three plays, punt
SFO takes 38-16 lead - Marino drives to SFO 27, then intercepted
SFO up 38-16 - Marino drives to SFO 21, then intercepted
SFO up 38-16 - Marino drives to SFO 30, fumbles, recovers fumble, clock expires, end of game
Finally there is what the Dolphins did before they drafted Marino - they won 141 games, two Superbowls, and ten additional playoff games in the seventeen years before they drafted him. Fifty-seven wins and a Superbowl berth came in the six seasons immediately before they drafted Marino; Marino won 60 games and just three playoff games in his first six seasons - and just 141 games total in his seventeen seasons. The Dolphins then won 41 games in the four seasons after Marino retired where Marino won 45 games in his last five seasons in the league.
If anything Marino was rescued by the league's 1990 decision to add a third wildcard playoff team - of his eight playoff wins five of them came after the addition of a sixth playoff team, and only once (1992) in that span did he get out of the Divisional Round.
Marino's volume stats are his only real claim to be a Hall Of Famer - his inferior yards per throw, mediocre completion percentage, and subpar touchdown to interception ratio tag him as one of the more overrated quarterbacks in NFL history as well - and it is telling that Don Shula has admitted that Marino often changed playcalls so he could throw the ball more (while Jimmy Johnson was criticized for taking that away from Marino when he became Dolphins head coach) - a sign Shula should have given up on Marino well before he retired.
Thursday, December 12, 2013
NASCAR And 2014 Racing Packages
NASCAR ran a much-anticipated aerodynamics test at Charlotte this week, testing varied items to try and open up passing on intermediate tracks. It is a follow-up to a similar test in October, and in that test a larger spoiler seemed to work best toward allowing more effort at passing and closing up on lead cars
Said Gene Stefanshyn of NASCAR, "We accomplished out goal today." He also acknowledged the differing opinions between what computer data says, what the eye test says, and so forth - "You're kind of looking for the 70 percent answer."
Perhaps NASCAR accomplished its immediate goal in this Charlotte test, but it remains unknown what package will develop from here, and from reading Dustin Long's analysis of the test, this December test curiously seemed less productive in terms of developing passing than the October test. The use of carb spacers reduced horsepower to the 750 range, which is still very high - at least somewhat absurdly high, really. One wonders why power wasn't dropped to 600 or lower for this test.
That NASCAR has been conducting these tests is certainly commendable, and the sport needs a package that opens up passing. What was witnessed with the Trucks in April and the Busch Series cars in October, both at Kansas Speedway, was what the sport can have and also what it can improve - there was some excellent nose to nose combat for the lead in both races, some of the best of the NASCAR season.
I've long said - the draft has to be more important than handling; that is the lesson of the best racing in the sport's history, from the 1960s and 1970s forward - be in restrictor plate racing, the two Truck/Busch Series Kansas races from 2013 noted above, the "crapwagon" IRL era, the Hanford Wing era of Indycar, the Trucks at Pocono and also in 2013 at Homestead, and the 2013 Indianapolis 500 plus the finish of the Freedom 100 Indy Lights race, the racing where the draft means a lot and handling means nothing is the racing that produces the most passing.
These tests seem to be confirming this again.
Said Gene Stefanshyn of NASCAR, "We accomplished out goal today." He also acknowledged the differing opinions between what computer data says, what the eye test says, and so forth - "You're kind of looking for the 70 percent answer."
Perhaps NASCAR accomplished its immediate goal in this Charlotte test, but it remains unknown what package will develop from here, and from reading Dustin Long's analysis of the test, this December test curiously seemed less productive in terms of developing passing than the October test. The use of carb spacers reduced horsepower to the 750 range, which is still very high - at least somewhat absurdly high, really. One wonders why power wasn't dropped to 600 or lower for this test.
That NASCAR has been conducting these tests is certainly commendable, and the sport needs a package that opens up passing. What was witnessed with the Trucks in April and the Busch Series cars in October, both at Kansas Speedway, was what the sport can have and also what it can improve - there was some excellent nose to nose combat for the lead in both races, some of the best of the NASCAR season.
I've long said - the draft has to be more important than handling; that is the lesson of the best racing in the sport's history, from the 1960s and 1970s forward - be in restrictor plate racing, the two Truck/Busch Series Kansas races from 2013 noted above, the "crapwagon" IRL era, the Hanford Wing era of Indycar, the Trucks at Pocono and also in 2013 at Homestead, and the 2013 Indianapolis 500 plus the finish of the Freedom 100 Indy Lights race, the racing where the draft means a lot and handling means nothing is the racing that produces the most passing.
These tests seem to be confirming this again.
The Age Of Disinformation
For all the proliferation of information outlets, the Mainstream Media refuses to tell the blunt truth about Islamo-Arab imperialism and a lot of other items
A Bad Budget Deal, Or Not
The recent budget deal negotiated by Paul Ryan has come under fire because it does not mandate more spending cuts and has several budgetary gimmicks - notably spending more now by promising cuts later - that aren't believable. But for all that, the deal has some genuine benefits, such as shown here.
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
Ten Thoughts For Week 15
With the approach of NFL Week 15, ten thoughts on the NFL -
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The Patriots are the best organization at overcoming adversity in the league's history - Multiple injuries to core people; massive roster turnover; setbacks that any team would crumble under. Yet be it 2001, 2003, 2008 or any other year, the Patriots prove the doubters wrong and make at the worst a legitimate playoff run. The surprise of 2008 was that the Patriots didn't make the playoffs, not that they won 11 games. Four comebacks from down at least ten points in the last six games, a comeback derailed by bad officiating, a 24-point massacre of the Steelers, and scoring two touchdowns with 61 seconds to go have showcased the unprecedented nature of this organization.
Mike Shanahan is the most overrated coach in the last fifteen years - Since John Elway retired Shanahan never got the Broncos beyond mediocrity stage, posting records above 9-7 only four times in his last ten seasons in Denver. He never got the quarterback position right, muddling through with Bubby Brister, Brian Griese, Jake "The Mistake" Plummer, and finally Jay Cutler, all of whom put up numbers but in the end fell apart as quarterbacks.
Ron Jaworski may need to change his opinion on who the best quarterback down the road will be - Colin Kaepernick is proving a one-trick pony and Robert Griffin III is flaming out. Nick Foles is quietly establishing a legitimate NFL career - one that looks more promising than either Kaepernick or RGIII.
The Chicago Bears should seriously consider keeping Luke McCown - Under Marc Trestman, McCown is proving doubters galore wrong, and proving Cutler is what he is - a flop.
The Jacksonville Jaguars may finally be becoming a contender again - They won't make the playoffs in 2013 but the turnaround in the last six weeks has been huge, and is showing Gus Bradley is establishing legitimacy to himself in the NFL.
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So are the Miami Dolphins - Remember the Richie Incognito fracas? Probably not, because the Dolphins like the Jaguars have quietly gotten better, and presently stand 7-6 with two winnable games left on their schedule. While beating the Patriots seems out of reach, 9-7 is not, and the Dolphins under Joe Philbin are becoming the real deal.
Don't buy the Nick Saban to the NFL rumor - The latest rumor is the Washington Redskins are interested in hiring Nick Saban to replace Shanahan based on word leaking out that Saban is negotiating a contract extension with Alabama. That the story was leaked suggests more that Saban is not going back to the NFL rather than the other way around. Moreover, Saban's present deal is far too good to bother with the NFL again.
The Cardinals keep refusing to go away - Could Bruce Arians be the coach that makes the Cardinals a legitimate long-term contender? Presently just on the outside looking in for the NFC playoff picture, the Cardinals have looked steadily more dangerous the longer the season has run; even the loss to the Eagles didn't change that the Cardinals look like a legitimate playoff team. 10-6 looks like the worst the Cards finish this season and with Seattle's loss at San Francisco some vulnerability may show for the Cardinals to exploit.
Should the Colts be concerned about Andrew Luck? - The Colts are 4-4 in their last eight games and losing to the Bengals may be a warning sign. Not that Luck's overall play has deteriorated - he's had over 3,100 yards and 19 touchdowns so far this year, and in three of his last four losses he's broken 60% completion; one would expect much lower than that in losing games - but right now the Colts don't look like a team elevating to the next level.
Andy Dalton may be ready to take that next step - The Bengals more and more look like a 12-4 team and Andy Dalton has been strong, breaking 60% completion in seven of his last nine games. He's already had playoff experience, albiet the discouraging kind, but his game seems to be getting better.
So that's that as Week 15 approaches.
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The Patriots are the best organization at overcoming adversity in the league's history - Multiple injuries to core people; massive roster turnover; setbacks that any team would crumble under. Yet be it 2001, 2003, 2008 or any other year, the Patriots prove the doubters wrong and make at the worst a legitimate playoff run. The surprise of 2008 was that the Patriots didn't make the playoffs, not that they won 11 games. Four comebacks from down at least ten points in the last six games, a comeback derailed by bad officiating, a 24-point massacre of the Steelers, and scoring two touchdowns with 61 seconds to go have showcased the unprecedented nature of this organization.
Mike Shanahan is the most overrated coach in the last fifteen years - Since John Elway retired Shanahan never got the Broncos beyond mediocrity stage, posting records above 9-7 only four times in his last ten seasons in Denver. He never got the quarterback position right, muddling through with Bubby Brister, Brian Griese, Jake "The Mistake" Plummer, and finally Jay Cutler, all of whom put up numbers but in the end fell apart as quarterbacks.
Ron Jaworski may need to change his opinion on who the best quarterback down the road will be - Colin Kaepernick is proving a one-trick pony and Robert Griffin III is flaming out. Nick Foles is quietly establishing a legitimate NFL career - one that looks more promising than either Kaepernick or RGIII.
The Chicago Bears should seriously consider keeping Luke McCown - Under Marc Trestman, McCown is proving doubters galore wrong, and proving Cutler is what he is - a flop.
The Jacksonville Jaguars may finally be becoming a contender again - They won't make the playoffs in 2013 but the turnaround in the last six weeks has been huge, and is showing Gus Bradley is establishing legitimacy to himself in the NFL.
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So are the Miami Dolphins - Remember the Richie Incognito fracas? Probably not, because the Dolphins like the Jaguars have quietly gotten better, and presently stand 7-6 with two winnable games left on their schedule. While beating the Patriots seems out of reach, 9-7 is not, and the Dolphins under Joe Philbin are becoming the real deal.
Don't buy the Nick Saban to the NFL rumor - The latest rumor is the Washington Redskins are interested in hiring Nick Saban to replace Shanahan based on word leaking out that Saban is negotiating a contract extension with Alabama. That the story was leaked suggests more that Saban is not going back to the NFL rather than the other way around. Moreover, Saban's present deal is far too good to bother with the NFL again.
The Cardinals keep refusing to go away - Could Bruce Arians be the coach that makes the Cardinals a legitimate long-term contender? Presently just on the outside looking in for the NFC playoff picture, the Cardinals have looked steadily more dangerous the longer the season has run; even the loss to the Eagles didn't change that the Cardinals look like a legitimate playoff team. 10-6 looks like the worst the Cards finish this season and with Seattle's loss at San Francisco some vulnerability may show for the Cardinals to exploit.
Should the Colts be concerned about Andrew Luck? - The Colts are 4-4 in their last eight games and losing to the Bengals may be a warning sign. Not that Luck's overall play has deteriorated - he's had over 3,100 yards and 19 touchdowns so far this year, and in three of his last four losses he's broken 60% completion; one would expect much lower than that in losing games - but right now the Colts don't look like a team elevating to the next level.
Andy Dalton may be ready to take that next step - The Bengals more and more look like a 12-4 team and Andy Dalton has been strong, breaking 60% completion in seven of his last nine games. He's already had playoff experience, albiet the discouraging kind, but his game seems to be getting better.
So that's that as Week 15 approaches.
Monday, December 09, 2013
Week 14 After Further Review
Week 14 of the NFL season has wrapped up and the season itself is closing fast on the playoffs, yet this particular week warrants examination.
##########
The Patriots-Browns game warrants extensive attention not only for the chaotic outcome, but also for the twin issues of player injuries and officiating. Rob Gronkowski's injury on a low hit has stirred debate about the sagacity of the NFL's rules concerning head hits. More than a few commentators have noted Brandon Meriweather's complaint earlier this season that the NFL's emphasis on stopping head hits has left defenders no alternative but to attack low, and the result being increased knee/leg injuries.
The issue of player safety has not been adequately examined because the NFL's approach has been backwards. What the league has done is make the fundamental mistake of defining the issue down instead of defining it up - it has gone the route of restriction and of treating players as weak instead of working to toughen players, toughen safety equipment, and trusting in the toughness of both. All the bluster about concussions has obscured that it never was the epidemic the League Of Denial demagogues have always pretended it to be, and there never was any need for new rules for player safety.
The league's approach toward player safety needs to change - it needs to define the issue up, not down. Players in the last 20-plus years have been stronger, more durable, and safer than ever before and they're only getting safer still. The league needs to encourage making the players stronger and more durable still; it needs to further improve safety equipment (which is already being done anyway) and also trust in the toughness and safety of both.
Because the stronger the players, the stronger the safety equipment, the safer the game. Taking away certain hits accomplishes nothing for the game.
Related to this issue is how the league has cracked down on training camp and in-season practices - here it chose the wrong route of defining the issue down instead of up. Instead of limiting the physicality of training camp and in-season practices, the league should be cracking down on off-season player training regimens - players should train less in the off-season and instead use camps, pre-season games, and in-season practices to get into football shape - train less, hit more - just as baseball pitchers who presently cannot last 200 innings because they train too much in the off-season need to eschew off-season training and instead use preseason practices to pitch more, as was the custom in 1979 when multiple pitchers reached 250 innings - noteworthy is that NFL players showed more in-season stamina in what was a more physical game back then because of resting in the off-season and using camp and the preseason to get in shape.
##########
The issue of officiating centers on the Patriots-Browns game because of glaringly poor performance by Jerome Boger's crew. A Browns fumble in the first quarter was wiped out without any credible justification by Boger, and several other questionable calls marred the most improbable comeback win the league has seen in years. Several other games were marred by poor officiating, to the point that Leslie Frazier of the Vikings was contacted by the league to discuss the matter.
The view was expressed that the officiating job is inherently hard and another unfavorable comparison was made to 2012's replacement refs - which misses the point entirely. The replacement refs really were better than the officials used now, because they let the players play and didn't try to be the show. Ed Hochuli and company have long tried to be the show and it isn't working.
##########
In this regard, two rule changes the league needs are presented -
1 - Take away the 5-yard chuck rule.
2 - Allow receivers a running start behind the line of scrimmage at the snap, a rule used in the Arena League and the Canadian League and which works. It opens up offense, while getting rid of the chuck rule allows defenders to make plays.
Overall, let the players play, because letting the players play is the best safety approach there is.
##########
The league set a record for touchdowns scored in one day (95) on Sunday, and it may have been the best Sunday ever. Four of them were scored by the Titans, but the game at Denver fell away to a 51-28 Broncos win. The season thus appears a lost one for a Titans team that had showed real improvement at the start of the season and which has still shown commendable fight even with the season slipping away.
Even so rumblings have begun of major changes after the season, with Mike Munchak under fire, running back Chris Johnson ostensibly to be released, and quarterback Jake Locker a possible casualty as well, with Jay Cutler a possible free agent acquisition.
I'm not sold on firing Munchak, who clearly has his players playing hard, or releasing Locker, who even with two years of season-ruining injuries has shown real growth as a quarterback this season, or signing Jay Cutler, who has put up some impressive volume stats but hasn't shown clutch ability as a quarterback. He'd be a huge upgrade over the bitterly disappointing Ryan Fitzpatrick - whose own inability to seal the deal in games is the real reason for the collapse of the Titans' season - but compared to Locker right now, I'd take Locker.
##########
Some analysts still pretend that there is need to establish the run. Monday Night's game is yet another example that the run is not conducive to winning - the Cowboys rushed for 199 yards and scored 28 points - while the Bears' Luke McCown threw for 348 yards and scored 45 points; the Bears did ruhs for 156 yards but it really didn't matter.
Tony Romo managed three touchdowns, but they were empty numbers yet again, further proving his irrelevance to the game and that he is just one of those guys who shouldn't even be in the league.
##########
Finally, one should remember Tom Dempsey, who saw his NFL record longest field goal broken by the Broncos on a 64-yarder. Dempsey set the record in 1970 of 63 yards, and did so despite a malformed foot requiring a special shoe. Dempsey is one of the good guys in league history, and to see his record last as long as it did was something.
##########
The Patriots-Browns game warrants extensive attention not only for the chaotic outcome, but also for the twin issues of player injuries and officiating. Rob Gronkowski's injury on a low hit has stirred debate about the sagacity of the NFL's rules concerning head hits. More than a few commentators have noted Brandon Meriweather's complaint earlier this season that the NFL's emphasis on stopping head hits has left defenders no alternative but to attack low, and the result being increased knee/leg injuries.
The issue of player safety has not been adequately examined because the NFL's approach has been backwards. What the league has done is make the fundamental mistake of defining the issue down instead of defining it up - it has gone the route of restriction and of treating players as weak instead of working to toughen players, toughen safety equipment, and trusting in the toughness of both. All the bluster about concussions has obscured that it never was the epidemic the League Of Denial demagogues have always pretended it to be, and there never was any need for new rules for player safety.
The league's approach toward player safety needs to change - it needs to define the issue up, not down. Players in the last 20-plus years have been stronger, more durable, and safer than ever before and they're only getting safer still. The league needs to encourage making the players stronger and more durable still; it needs to further improve safety equipment (which is already being done anyway) and also trust in the toughness and safety of both.
Because the stronger the players, the stronger the safety equipment, the safer the game. Taking away certain hits accomplishes nothing for the game.
Related to this issue is how the league has cracked down on training camp and in-season practices - here it chose the wrong route of defining the issue down instead of up. Instead of limiting the physicality of training camp and in-season practices, the league should be cracking down on off-season player training regimens - players should train less in the off-season and instead use camps, pre-season games, and in-season practices to get into football shape - train less, hit more - just as baseball pitchers who presently cannot last 200 innings because they train too much in the off-season need to eschew off-season training and instead use preseason practices to pitch more, as was the custom in 1979 when multiple pitchers reached 250 innings - noteworthy is that NFL players showed more in-season stamina in what was a more physical game back then because of resting in the off-season and using camp and the preseason to get in shape.
##########
The issue of officiating centers on the Patriots-Browns game because of glaringly poor performance by Jerome Boger's crew. A Browns fumble in the first quarter was wiped out without any credible justification by Boger, and several other questionable calls marred the most improbable comeback win the league has seen in years. Several other games were marred by poor officiating, to the point that Leslie Frazier of the Vikings was contacted by the league to discuss the matter.
The view was expressed that the officiating job is inherently hard and another unfavorable comparison was made to 2012's replacement refs - which misses the point entirely. The replacement refs really were better than the officials used now, because they let the players play and didn't try to be the show. Ed Hochuli and company have long tried to be the show and it isn't working.
##########
In this regard, two rule changes the league needs are presented -
1 - Take away the 5-yard chuck rule.
2 - Allow receivers a running start behind the line of scrimmage at the snap, a rule used in the Arena League and the Canadian League and which works. It opens up offense, while getting rid of the chuck rule allows defenders to make plays.
Overall, let the players play, because letting the players play is the best safety approach there is.
##########
The league set a record for touchdowns scored in one day (95) on Sunday, and it may have been the best Sunday ever. Four of them were scored by the Titans, but the game at Denver fell away to a 51-28 Broncos win. The season thus appears a lost one for a Titans team that had showed real improvement at the start of the season and which has still shown commendable fight even with the season slipping away.
Even so rumblings have begun of major changes after the season, with Mike Munchak under fire, running back Chris Johnson ostensibly to be released, and quarterback Jake Locker a possible casualty as well, with Jay Cutler a possible free agent acquisition.
I'm not sold on firing Munchak, who clearly has his players playing hard, or releasing Locker, who even with two years of season-ruining injuries has shown real growth as a quarterback this season, or signing Jay Cutler, who has put up some impressive volume stats but hasn't shown clutch ability as a quarterback. He'd be a huge upgrade over the bitterly disappointing Ryan Fitzpatrick - whose own inability to seal the deal in games is the real reason for the collapse of the Titans' season - but compared to Locker right now, I'd take Locker.
##########
Some analysts still pretend that there is need to establish the run. Monday Night's game is yet another example that the run is not conducive to winning - the Cowboys rushed for 199 yards and scored 28 points - while the Bears' Luke McCown threw for 348 yards and scored 45 points; the Bears did ruhs for 156 yards but it really didn't matter.
Tony Romo managed three touchdowns, but they were empty numbers yet again, further proving his irrelevance to the game and that he is just one of those guys who shouldn't even be in the league.
##########
Finally, one should remember Tom Dempsey, who saw his NFL record longest field goal broken by the Broncos on a 64-yarder. Dempsey set the record in 1970 of 63 yards, and did so despite a malformed foot requiring a special shoe. Dempsey is one of the good guys in league history, and to see his record last as long as it did was something.
Thursday, December 05, 2013
Treaties Never Worth The Paper Used
Iran will abrogate its nuclear treaty when it becomes inconvenient - because that is what predator states exist to do.
Tuesday, December 03, 2013
NFL Things Peter King May Think I Think
The stretch run for the NFL season is here and some items I think Peter King thinks I believe (with apologies to Peter King) are presented below -
##########
On the Sports Illustrated site is a piece about players whining against the Thursday Night Football slate and how they ostensibly are having a hard time adapting to it. The piece never makes any kind of case against the Thursday Night slate, not in terms of player fatigue or player safety, and it is glaringly obvious watching the games - as an enormous number of people are doing - that there has been nothing onerous about the Thursday Night slate. The quality of the games did suffer early in the season but that has changed as the season has gone on - and decline in quality of play rests mostly with the league's absurd reduction in the physicality allowed in training camps and in-season practices.
##########
Pete Carroll still gets ripped in some media circles as a coach who does not instill discipline for his players. The latest example of such is criticism that a few of his players (such as cornerbacks Brandon Browner and Walter Thurmond) recently got suspended or face suspension for failing recent drug tests. The problem with the "lack of discipline" argument is that the Seahawks keep getting better. A team that lacks discipline is the New York Jets, and it is reflected in their deteriorating play.
Pete Carroll's past NFL failures are blamed on him; with the New England Patriots 1997-99 the real fault lay in the command structure put in place at the time - Carroll coached the team with what amounted to zero say in personnel matters. He couldn't pick his players and couldn't pay them, and personnel guru Bobby Grier allowed players to go over Carroll's head straight to him.
That structure was put in place because Bill Parcells showed he was not trustworthy with control - before 1996 his record was 21-27 and the 1994 season's 10-6 record was because Parcells actually let go of a measure of control in handing over the offense to Drew Bledsoe; he took it back in 1995 to push the "establish the run and play defense" model that by then was outdated.
The blunt truth is Pete Carroll is a superior coach to any assumption ever made about him.
##########
Antonio Smith of the Houston Texans backpedaled from his post-game accusation of cheating against the Patriots. I don't know what's worse - making the accusation or the backpedaling.
It's brought up again how hated the Patriots organization is. The hate is manifest and it's different from past dynasties like the Johnson-Switzer Cowboys and the 49ers - there was rampant hatred of those dynasties but there was also a popularity about them because they had players with personalities. The Patriots are different - they are more disciplined and thus inherently more boring, and that has fed the hatred.
It's a bit of a poor reflection on how good teams are judged. Personality is so often overrated it isn't funny - the 1990s Cowboys today are beloved because of the larger-than-life personalities involved, yet the player most deserving of respect from that era is the most boring - Troy Aikman.
##########
The fall of the Packers is largely explained by Aaron Rodgers' injury. Actually it's just more proof the Packers are frontrunning frauds. They lost two of their first three games, both times failing when they had to stage a comeback. Rodgers certainly makes a major difference but the myth that he's an elite quarterback should be punctured by now.
##########
The more we watch the 49ers, the more it's becoming clear that Colin Kaepernick is a one-trick pony of a quarterback. He is not showing progression as a quarterback.
##########
The slaughter in Seattle exposed some serious weaknesses with the Saints - namely an aging offense.
##########
With numerous coaches on the verge of being fired, wait for the Bill Cowher advocacy train to start rolling again.
Here is a reason to derail that train - Cowher went into an ideal situation with the Steelers and did less with more. His 12-9 playoff record as a head coach doesn't showcase anything inspiring in him, and doesn't justify hiring him, especially now seven seasons removed from any coaching gig.
##########
Speaking of potential coaching changes, I'm surprised no one has circulated rumors that former Patriots offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien gets hired by an NFL team. The job he's done rebuilding the Penn State football program has been eye-opening.
##########
BTW, has there been any Blaine Gabbert sighting anywhere?
So it is as Week 14 approaches.
##########
On the Sports Illustrated site is a piece about players whining against the Thursday Night Football slate and how they ostensibly are having a hard time adapting to it. The piece never makes any kind of case against the Thursday Night slate, not in terms of player fatigue or player safety, and it is glaringly obvious watching the games - as an enormous number of people are doing - that there has been nothing onerous about the Thursday Night slate. The quality of the games did suffer early in the season but that has changed as the season has gone on - and decline in quality of play rests mostly with the league's absurd reduction in the physicality allowed in training camps and in-season practices.
##########
Pete Carroll still gets ripped in some media circles as a coach who does not instill discipline for his players. The latest example of such is criticism that a few of his players (such as cornerbacks Brandon Browner and Walter Thurmond) recently got suspended or face suspension for failing recent drug tests. The problem with the "lack of discipline" argument is that the Seahawks keep getting better. A team that lacks discipline is the New York Jets, and it is reflected in their deteriorating play.
Pete Carroll's past NFL failures are blamed on him; with the New England Patriots 1997-99 the real fault lay in the command structure put in place at the time - Carroll coached the team with what amounted to zero say in personnel matters. He couldn't pick his players and couldn't pay them, and personnel guru Bobby Grier allowed players to go over Carroll's head straight to him.
That structure was put in place because Bill Parcells showed he was not trustworthy with control - before 1996 his record was 21-27 and the 1994 season's 10-6 record was because Parcells actually let go of a measure of control in handing over the offense to Drew Bledsoe; he took it back in 1995 to push the "establish the run and play defense" model that by then was outdated.
The blunt truth is Pete Carroll is a superior coach to any assumption ever made about him.
##########
Antonio Smith of the Houston Texans backpedaled from his post-game accusation of cheating against the Patriots. I don't know what's worse - making the accusation or the backpedaling.
It's brought up again how hated the Patriots organization is. The hate is manifest and it's different from past dynasties like the Johnson-Switzer Cowboys and the 49ers - there was rampant hatred of those dynasties but there was also a popularity about them because they had players with personalities. The Patriots are different - they are more disciplined and thus inherently more boring, and that has fed the hatred.
It's a bit of a poor reflection on how good teams are judged. Personality is so often overrated it isn't funny - the 1990s Cowboys today are beloved because of the larger-than-life personalities involved, yet the player most deserving of respect from that era is the most boring - Troy Aikman.
##########
The fall of the Packers is largely explained by Aaron Rodgers' injury. Actually it's just more proof the Packers are frontrunning frauds. They lost two of their first three games, both times failing when they had to stage a comeback. Rodgers certainly makes a major difference but the myth that he's an elite quarterback should be punctured by now.
##########
The more we watch the 49ers, the more it's becoming clear that Colin Kaepernick is a one-trick pony of a quarterback. He is not showing progression as a quarterback.
##########
The slaughter in Seattle exposed some serious weaknesses with the Saints - namely an aging offense.
##########
With numerous coaches on the verge of being fired, wait for the Bill Cowher advocacy train to start rolling again.
Here is a reason to derail that train - Cowher went into an ideal situation with the Steelers and did less with more. His 12-9 playoff record as a head coach doesn't showcase anything inspiring in him, and doesn't justify hiring him, especially now seven seasons removed from any coaching gig.
##########
Speaking of potential coaching changes, I'm surprised no one has circulated rumors that former Patriots offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien gets hired by an NFL team. The job he's done rebuilding the Penn State football program has been eye-opening.
##########
BTW, has there been any Blaine Gabbert sighting anywhere?
So it is as Week 14 approaches.
Monday, December 02, 2013
Sunday, December 01, 2013
NFL Down To December
So it comes down to December and the playoff races are starting to sort out. A look at how the league appears to be sorting out entering the final month of the season -
##########
The Patriots keep on clawing for the showdown to the Superbowl
- The Houston Texans once again played well in a loss, and the Patriots' career record at Reliant Stadium makes interesting reading - in three games against the Texans plus the Superbowl against the Panthers, the total points differential for the Patriots is plus-two. For some reason the Patriots win there but can't put anyone away there.
The Texans season is shot but Case Keenum keeps making a legitimate case for himself for 2014; it is baffling Keenum is winless so far.
The rest of the AFC East remains battling for pride
- The Dolphins won their fifth road game against the NY Jets in the last six trips to East Rutherford, NJ, and the Jets added further to the collapse of their season by benching Geno Smith for Matt Simms; benching the ostensible starter never leads to good results.
It is worth examining coach Rex Ryan here because the widespread belief entering the season was he was on the firing line, then as the Jets stayed at .500 it seemed Ryan was coaching his way to an extension, but now the Jets are in freefall. The blunt truth is Ryan has done little to justify not firing him - he is a players' coach, and thus his players lack the same level of discipline seen with quality teams (showcased by Ryan's absurd restaurant trip with his players before their loss at Buffalo); he has been overrated as a defensive coach, as one struggles to remember when his defenses legitimately stopped a good offense; by my understanding he has had a say in personnel decisions and the poor construction of the Jets roster thus labels him as one not to be trusted on personnel matters.
Meanwhile the Buffalo Bills continue falling, as they blew a winnable game at Toronto's dome against the Falcons. Up 31-24 the Bills couldn't stop the Falcons from tying the game, nor could they stop the seemingly-inevitable winning field goal by the Falcons in overtime.
The Broncos all but clinched the top AFC seed - It was the shootout everyone expected but the Chiefs proved unable to hang with the Broncos and now Peyton Manning has the AFC West all to himself for now. The Chiefs have to settle for the top wildcard seed while the Chargers have all but fallen out of any playoff possibility and their spectacular win over the Chiefs has proven the exception proving the rule of right now - the Chargers play uninspired football at a time they need more of what they produced against Kansas City.
The Colts all but wrapped up another AFC South title and the Titans continue to blow it - Reading message boards Titans fans want to fire Mike Munchak now, yet watching the Titans the problems they are having stem from the quarterbacking instability Munchak didn't have to deal with in 2011's 9-7 season. Ryan Fitzpatrick has authored more heartbreak than production, and didn't shy away from it ("I didn't play well," he said after the game); he has the talent to win games yet it isn't happening.
And making it doubly frustrating - the Titans have shown fight all season; therein lay the strongest endorsement of Mike Munchak - his players clearly are playing for him. I highly doubt the Titans wouldn't have won some of these bitter games with Jake Locker. And those who advocate firing Mike Munchak need a credible argument along the lines of above's case against Rex Ryan - and one is hard-pressed to find one here.
Houston and Jacksonville meanwhile show anew Sean Salisbury's truism - the difference between 12-4 and 4-12 is a quarterback and two or three players. The Jaguars' win at Cleveland was a surprisingly good game and showcased the Jaguars are not stiffs.
The Bengals are closing on a division title that looks more impressive than their last two - Andy Dalton appears to be getting better as a quarterback and the Bengals are showing signs of gelling and maturing, qualities needed with Baltimore not out of the playoff race yet. Even with their win over the Steelers, though, the Ravens do not look strong enough to make the playoffs, and the late run of last year is hard to replicate this year, especially given how the Ravens blew up the roster to pay Joe Flacco big bucks.
##########
The Seahawks are - almost - division champs - The Seahawks look like NFC top-seed material easily, though the 49ers got a needed win over the Rams while the Cardinals came up short at Philadelphia. By crushing the New Orleans Saints, the Seahawks further reinforced they are effectively unbeatable at home.
The Panthers and Saints are on the NFC South collision course - The Panthers held serve against the Bucs and the Saints were thoroughly destroyed at Seattle. The two teams amazingly haven't faced each other yet and first do so next week. The Panthers now have the given how effective Cam Newton is and also with the Panthers holding a two-game winning streak in the series. The loss at Seattle may have been a fatal blow to the Saints.
The Eagles can win the NFC East - Dallas rallied to beat the Raiders but it is Philadelphia that has control of the division as they continue to get better and Nick Foles keeps showing people he is for real.
The rebirth of the Lions is one of the league's best stories - Matthew Stafford finally beat the Packers and did so despite early-game gaffes. It was the first Lions win on Thanksgiving since 2003 and reinforced how remarkable the rebirth of the Lions after 2008's perfect failure has been. Stafford's gutsiness has been displayed repeatedly but his comeback win over the Cowboys is the kind of win that makes fans out of people. It certainly rivals his 2009 comeback over the Browns as an unforgettable game.
Making it more delicious is that it furthers the fall of the Packers, the league's ultimate frontrunning fraud.
With that the NFL marches toward Week 14.
##########
The Patriots keep on clawing for the showdown to the Superbowl
- The Houston Texans once again played well in a loss, and the Patriots' career record at Reliant Stadium makes interesting reading - in three games against the Texans plus the Superbowl against the Panthers, the total points differential for the Patriots is plus-two. For some reason the Patriots win there but can't put anyone away there.
The Texans season is shot but Case Keenum keeps making a legitimate case for himself for 2014; it is baffling Keenum is winless so far.
The rest of the AFC East remains battling for pride
- The Dolphins won their fifth road game against the NY Jets in the last six trips to East Rutherford, NJ, and the Jets added further to the collapse of their season by benching Geno Smith for Matt Simms; benching the ostensible starter never leads to good results.
It is worth examining coach Rex Ryan here because the widespread belief entering the season was he was on the firing line, then as the Jets stayed at .500 it seemed Ryan was coaching his way to an extension, but now the Jets are in freefall. The blunt truth is Ryan has done little to justify not firing him - he is a players' coach, and thus his players lack the same level of discipline seen with quality teams (showcased by Ryan's absurd restaurant trip with his players before their loss at Buffalo); he has been overrated as a defensive coach, as one struggles to remember when his defenses legitimately stopped a good offense; by my understanding he has had a say in personnel decisions and the poor construction of the Jets roster thus labels him as one not to be trusted on personnel matters.
Meanwhile the Buffalo Bills continue falling, as they blew a winnable game at Toronto's dome against the Falcons. Up 31-24 the Bills couldn't stop the Falcons from tying the game, nor could they stop the seemingly-inevitable winning field goal by the Falcons in overtime.
The Broncos all but clinched the top AFC seed - It was the shootout everyone expected but the Chiefs proved unable to hang with the Broncos and now Peyton Manning has the AFC West all to himself for now. The Chiefs have to settle for the top wildcard seed while the Chargers have all but fallen out of any playoff possibility and their spectacular win over the Chiefs has proven the exception proving the rule of right now - the Chargers play uninspired football at a time they need more of what they produced against Kansas City.
The Colts all but wrapped up another AFC South title and the Titans continue to blow it - Reading message boards Titans fans want to fire Mike Munchak now, yet watching the Titans the problems they are having stem from the quarterbacking instability Munchak didn't have to deal with in 2011's 9-7 season. Ryan Fitzpatrick has authored more heartbreak than production, and didn't shy away from it ("I didn't play well," he said after the game); he has the talent to win games yet it isn't happening.
And making it doubly frustrating - the Titans have shown fight all season; therein lay the strongest endorsement of Mike Munchak - his players clearly are playing for him. I highly doubt the Titans wouldn't have won some of these bitter games with Jake Locker. And those who advocate firing Mike Munchak need a credible argument along the lines of above's case against Rex Ryan - and one is hard-pressed to find one here.
Houston and Jacksonville meanwhile show anew Sean Salisbury's truism - the difference between 12-4 and 4-12 is a quarterback and two or three players. The Jaguars' win at Cleveland was a surprisingly good game and showcased the Jaguars are not stiffs.
The Bengals are closing on a division title that looks more impressive than their last two - Andy Dalton appears to be getting better as a quarterback and the Bengals are showing signs of gelling and maturing, qualities needed with Baltimore not out of the playoff race yet. Even with their win over the Steelers, though, the Ravens do not look strong enough to make the playoffs, and the late run of last year is hard to replicate this year, especially given how the Ravens blew up the roster to pay Joe Flacco big bucks.
##########
The Seahawks are - almost - division champs - The Seahawks look like NFC top-seed material easily, though the 49ers got a needed win over the Rams while the Cardinals came up short at Philadelphia. By crushing the New Orleans Saints, the Seahawks further reinforced they are effectively unbeatable at home.
The Panthers and Saints are on the NFC South collision course - The Panthers held serve against the Bucs and the Saints were thoroughly destroyed at Seattle. The two teams amazingly haven't faced each other yet and first do so next week. The Panthers now have the given how effective Cam Newton is and also with the Panthers holding a two-game winning streak in the series. The loss at Seattle may have been a fatal blow to the Saints.
The Eagles can win the NFC East - Dallas rallied to beat the Raiders but it is Philadelphia that has control of the division as they continue to get better and Nick Foles keeps showing people he is for real.
The rebirth of the Lions is one of the league's best stories - Matthew Stafford finally beat the Packers and did so despite early-game gaffes. It was the first Lions win on Thanksgiving since 2003 and reinforced how remarkable the rebirth of the Lions after 2008's perfect failure has been. Stafford's gutsiness has been displayed repeatedly but his comeback win over the Cowboys is the kind of win that makes fans out of people. It certainly rivals his 2009 comeback over the Browns as an unforgettable game.
Making it more delicious is that it furthers the fall of the Packers, the league's ultimate frontrunning fraud.
With that the NFL marches toward Week 14.
The Democratic Party Is The Enemy
Charles Krauthammer continues to sparkle in showing where the real world is - and he showcases the inherent lawlessness that is the Democratic Party.
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