2003 - Week 5 - Tennessee @ New England

NFL Addition By Divisional Round

The NFL's divisional playoff round has arrived and some of the participants come as a surprise to some, except by this point these surprises really aren't surprising.   We look at the four games -

The last time the Falcons traveled to Philly it didn't end well, but this coming game is radically different


Falcons over Eagles -   This game's dynamic changed when Carson Wentz went down late in the season.    Nick Foles started the last two games and was terrible in both.   The Falcons' playoff win at the Rams makes them easy favorites.

The Titans and Patriots didn't meet in the regular season; in Week Three both teams had to fight to win explosive games, and ironically Ron Torbert - the referee for this coming game - was referee for Tennessee's win over Seattle and New England's home win over Miami (John Parry reffed Texans at Patriots)


Patriots over Titans -   The Vegas spread of 13+ for the Patriots is preposterous and indicative of people insisting on underestimating the Tennessee Titans, a team that has won eleven games against playoff contenders the last two seasons; for comparison the Patriots have won fourteen such games -

TITANS WINS OVER PLAYOFF CONTENDERS -

2016 --- Lions - Packers - Chiefs - Broncos - Dolphins - Texans
2017 --- Jaguars twice - Seahawks - Ravens - Chiefs


PATRIOTS WINS OVER PLAYOFF CONTENDERS -

2016 --- Dolphins twice - Texans twice - Steelers twice - Ravens - Falcons
2017 --- Saints - Falcons - Chargers - Bills twice - Steelers

New England's run defense has been a problem this season (4.7 Yards Per Carry allowed) and for the Titans the rise of Derrick Henry with DeMarco Murray out is a propitious development. Also solid is Tennessee's O-line, which wore down a solid Chiefs front seven.   The Patriots hope Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell can also suit up for Saturday's game with no progress seen for Brady to work more with Philip Dorsett, while ex-Titan Kenny Britt may finally get some serious work.   Rob Gronkowski and Delanie Walker look to have strong games and Brady's domination of Dick Lebeau defenses has been absolute.    We expect a tight game decided by less than seven.

Jaguars over Steelers - The Jaguars have more than held their own against the Steelers since entering the league as an AFC Central team and the return of Tom Coughlin to the Jaguars has raised them to a legitimate contender; they certainly showed it in embarrassing the Steelers earlier this season.   Blake Bortles set back quarterbacking ten or more years in his win over the Bills, themselves in need of an actual quarterback, but his running was an eye-opening new wrinkle.   The Steelers have been a power for a long time but also have notable choke jobs in this span and an arrogance that betrays them at the worst moment, while the Jaguars have nothing to lose anymore.

Week One

Drew Brees tried to become Brett Favre

Vikings over Saints -   Drew Brees went to the Superbowl on a boneheaded interception in the Superdome, and astonishingly in the Wildcard round he authored one himself that tried to give away a win to the Panthers.   The INT against the Panthers is a bad sign as the Saints nearly blew a two-touchdown lead, this after some subpar play the last two weeks of the regular season.   They return to the new Metrodome with a Vikings team as good as any we've ever seen.   Case Keenum has proven himself and then some for a Vikings team that is loaded to be good for a long time.



So is addition by divisional playoffs.

Titans and Jaguars Spice 2017 Wildcard

So now the 2017 playoffs are upon us and the wildcard round offers the most interesting slate in years as the Titans, Jaguars, and Bills all return to the playoffs after lengthy absences.    The Bills drought is of course the longest, dating to the 1999 season, while the Jaguars last made the playoffs in 2007 and the Titans in 2008, while the Titans look for their first win since Steve McNair upset the Ravens in 2003.

The Buffalo Bills look for their first playoff win since 1995 when they owned Don Shula and Dan Marino. 

The Bills bring some swag into this playoffs after this brawl in the season finale at Miami.



A quick comment on the slate of NFL coach firings - the most fascinating and bizarre is the story that Jon Gruden will get not only the head coaching job with the Raiders but also part-ownership.   With the firing of Jack Del Rio that rumor becomes more credible - with Mark Davis reportedly in heavy debt - a figure indicated by Boomer Esiason is $125 million - it makes sense to bring in ownership help, plus it's a selling point for the move to Vegas.

Titans over Chiefs -    This is the matchup Andy Reid didn't want because the Titans have won six of the seven career meetings they've had with Andy Reid teams.........

Tennessee Titans vs Andy Reid teams -

2000 @ Eagles - W 15-13
2002 vs Eagles - W 27-24
2006 @ Eagles - W 31-13
2010 vs Eagles - W 37-19
2013 vs Chiefs - L 26-17
2014 @ Chiefs - W 26-10
2016 @ Chiefs - W 19-17

.....and the last time the Titans traveled to Arrowhead they clawed out a clutch win.    The Titans have now beaten nine playoff contenders (the Jaguars twice this season, making ten such wins) in the eighteen wins they've clawed out the last two seasons.    Mike Mularkey may still not last into 2018 with the story Titans ownership is frustrated at seeming slowness at developing Marcus Mariota (an interesting matchup here per John Glennon is when Mariota was blitzed he was deadly accurate in completions); certainly the targeting of Patriots coordinator Josh McDaniels makes sense and the Titans are a good fit, but give Mularkey credit for reestablishing a culture with accountability in the Titans locker room.

The last Rams playoff game was 2004 at the Falcons.


Falcons over Rams -    The Rams enter unfamiliar territory - not only the playoffs for the first time since 2004 but also a playoff game at home, and in LA.   The Rams' last playoff win was at Seattle in 2004, so for the Rams this is something new, while for the Falcons it's become old hat.   While not necessarily as good as in 2016 the Falcons enter with momentum, and Matt Ryan is unbeaten against the Rams - but then this is not the same old Rams.

The only other playoff meeting between the Bills and Jaguars was Jacksonville's first ever playoff game.

The last time the Jaguars hosted a playoff game against someone other than the Patriots or Titans, it went swimmingly - and against another AFC East team


Jaguars over Bills -     Tom Coughlin's rebuild of the Jaguars has paid off in their first division title of the AFC South era  and their first division title since the AFC Central.    They face a Bills team that played well enough to make it but hasn't shown they've really taken the next step.    A key matchup - per John Glennon, when Blake Bortles was blitzed, he was abysmal.   So this game could be closer than the reputations of the two teams may suggest.

Where was this out of the Buccaneers all season? Maybe being home dogs helped.


Panthers over Saints -    Beating one team three times in a season is rare, and New Orleans' loss to the Bucs when they had to win to secure the NFC South (Atlanta's win over Carolina backed the Saints into the division title) raises a red flag; the Saints have gone just 3-3 entering the playoffs even with the season sweep of the Panthers, who won four of their last six and committed fewer turnovers in that span than the Saints.    The comeback of both teams has been remarkable, New Orleans from going 7-9 four of the last five seasons and Carolina from slumping to 6-10 in 2016.    The memory of back-to-back 41-38 games hangs over this matchup.


So the playoffs commence.

Week 15 Goes For The Kill

And all of a sudden the NFL's 2017 playoff race has turned ugly.  

Steeler fans and a lot of people on social media were furious that a Steelers touchdown got erased (it followed the worst effort against a pick route ever seen by New England's defense, and that gaffe came after one of the worst gameplans and execution ever seen by the Patriots) on the league's preposterously tight definition of a catch; the result was disaster for the Steelers on an endzone interception that won the game for the Patriots.    Being the top rivalry in the AFC right now this finish will earn more controversy than usual, and one has to ask why the league fears letting receivers get benefit of the doubt on catches.

It also got worse for the Steelers with ankle injury to Antonio Brown, which reportedly has cost him the season and maybe the playoffs.

Brady's former backup meanwhile pulled off a clutch last-second win in a game where both he and Marcus Mariota displayed clutch delivery.   Garoppolo's turnaround of the Niners shows anew the reality that quarterbacking is what wins.    The Titans offense went to a no-huddle attack and it clearly works.   Tennessee can still make the playoffs by beating the Rams and Jaguars at home.  

One of the wildest games of the weekend came amid media eruption about investigation of Panthers owner Jerry Richardson, now putting the team up for sale, for reputed sexual harassment and use of a racial slur against a former scout with monetary settlements in at least four cases reported.   For what it's worth Cam Newton and other players vouched for Richardson's character after the game, and one should disabuse the notion that selling the team is any kind of lark based on a league investigation - it's way too big an investment for that.   The Panthers are a worthwhile purchase for a new Carolina owner with a quality team, fanbase, etc. and a playoff run pending.  

Carolina's win all but ends the forlorn playoff hopes of the Green Bay Packers.   Aaron Rodgers' return from injury - surprising in and of itself - ended with a lot of yards and two touchdowns but also three picks and his 33rd loss (to just six career wins) when trailing by at least two scores.  

Games between the Eagles and NY Giants at East Rutherford, NJ have shown a habit of bringing out the barrel of laughs from Joe Pisarcik to 1988's blocked field goal score to 2008's playoff grinder to Michael Vick's preposterous comeback in 2010.   2017 was the most competitive running of this series in years and the Eagles are in the NFC's first-round bye and still alive for the top seed and beyond.   For Eli Manning his NY Giants career looks to be ending, and struggle against the Eagles continues.


The playoffs thus are on the line for this coming week's games -


Ravens over Colts -   The Ravens are fighting for their playoff lives with the Bills and face a team that has haunted them since their 1996 debut, the ghost of the team that quit its city in late-March 1984.     The Ravens got the Colts at Indianapolis in their 1996 debut season and the rivalry has been woefully one-sided, a combined score 316-243 - an average of  22-17 per game.   That doesn't matter this year with the collapse of the Colts, reaching a new low with the loss to the Broncos.  


Vikings over Packers -   The Vikings are NFC North champs and the Packers are effectively out of the playoffs.   That's all one needs to know going into this game.   Aaron Rodgers is back, and looks ready to witness a fall to 8-8 or 7-9.   The question now is how far the Vikings can go; they've wrapped up the NFC North and can still get at least a bye.


Bears over Browns -  0-16 now beckons for the Browns after another rough outing for Mitch Trubisky of the Bears last week.   DeShone Kizer's rookie season will go down as a failure, leaving one to wonder if there is anything even here with him; a presumptive coaching change - just the latest such with the ever-perplexed Browns - also looms.


Panthers over Buccaneers -  Carolina's spectacular season rolls on; Tampa Bay's lost season stumbles to its conclusion.  The regression of Jameis Winston has been disturbing, but his effort against the Falcons showed reason to believe he is improving.


Titans over Rams -  There remains reason for optimism for the Titans after a dismal West Coast swing, with the switch to a no-huddle offense showing effectiveness at San Francisco.    Certainly the Rams' attack has become the most destructive since the Greatest Show On Astroturf and winning the division is a cinch, but the Titans have fought back from behind all season and need this game more than the Rams do, especially as.............


Falcons over Saints -  .......we expect the Falcons to finish the sweep of the Saints and thus end any hope of a playoff bye.   It's clear now the Falcons have worked in their new offensive coordinator's schemes well, and they've won the last three meetings with New Orleans.   Despite being plus-four in overall differential the Saints' turnover problems resurfaced against the NY Jets as well.   We expect the Rams and Saints' playoff seeds to stay the same.


Broncos over Redskins -  The Redskins, despite the win over the Cardinals, have transmuted back into the Deadskins, while the Broncos are on a two-game roll.


Chargers over NY Jets -  The Jets once again stand for Just End The Season.  San Diego's playoff hopes are gone so they need worry only about winning games, especially after their ugly no-show at Kansas City.    One also has to wonder if San Diego will try to draft one of the hotshot quarterback prospects entering the 2018 Draft, for Philip Rivers has been in slow-motion erosion all decade, failing to reach ten wins even once.

 
Chiefs over Dolphins - The Chiefs have their swag back and the Dolphins are fried fish for Lamar Hunt's powwow.


Patriots over Bills -  New England's stunner at Pittsburgh raised eyebrows for the struggle of the defense and also for the continuing inability - or unwillingness by Brady - to permanently engage other pass-catchers in the offense - Gronkowski had nine catches and Cooks had four; Amendola and James White were the only others targeted more than twice.    This binky approach has always ground the offense to a halt and the need for Brady to engage the likes of Kenny Britt (one catch for seven yards in his Patriots debut) into the offense becomes ever greater with playoff seedings on the line.   Buffalo's only chance at the playoffs is to win out, an unlikely prospect with a scuffling Patriots team looking to fix issues before the postseason arrives.


Forty-Niners over Jaguars -  The Jaguars are for real again, but so are the 49ers (they've won four of their last five), and Jimmy Garoppolo is clearly better than Blake Bortles, though Bortles' 3,174 yards and nineteen touchdowns aren't anything to sneeze at.   That edge is what will decide this outcome and put the AFC South into a one-game showdown on New Years Eve.

Cowboys over Seahawks - The Seahawks now appear to be in freefall.   They still own the tiebreaker for the playoffs, but a loss will cancel that out, and where the Cowboys have won three straight the Seahawks have lost four of their last seven, three of them at home.   Seattle's abandonment of discipline was in evidence again after last week's Jacksonville brouhaha as rookie Delano Hill attacked two Rams players and got ejected for it - it's a sign Pete Carroll's ethic increasingly doesn't work or he's not disciplining players.


NY Giants over Cardinals -  The Cardinals are now 6-8 and falling to their worst record since 2012.   The Giants have struggled to beat anyone but this looks like a morale-booster of a game.


Steelers over Texans -  Overmatched - that is the word for the Texans.   


Eagles over Raiders - The Eagles are flying to the top seed in the NFC, while the Raiders lament yet another lost opportunity.


The other big story percolating is that eleven and up to fourteen head coaches may be fired; one such domino has already fallen with Marvin Lewis of the Bengals retiring, presumably to Cincinnati's front office.   The hot coaching prospect is Josh McDaniels of the Patriots, but Jon Gruden amazingly may actually return to the league as a head coach.   A slew of coordinators will certainly be promoted to head jobs, and such turnover happens because - to use an old Ralph Kramdein-ism, one of these days, Morton, POW! Right in the kisser! - of finally finding the right coach.


With improvement in numerous teams the last two seasons, that's a chance teams should take.

Dogs Will Dog In Week Fifteen

The NFL hits Week 15 and hits have become a concern the last few weeks.

With multiple bad hits in the Bengals-Steelers brawl the week before, the Seahawks' reputation as a dirty team was amplified with another brawl started by them in the wake of a hard-fought loss.   Michael Bennett - he of the character assassination campaign in Las Vegas earlier this year - started the whole thing and his teammate got into it with a fan.   While one doesn't endorse fans throwing  objects at players, the Seahawks deserved it.

What may be Game Of The Year erupted in LA as the Eagles - despite losing Carson Wentz to an ACL - stormed to a 43-35 stunner after last week's ugly loss to the Seahawks.   The NFC playoff byes race is now strictly between the Vikings and the Eagles

Another candidate for Game Of The Year was Pittsburgh's eye-popping shootout over the Ravens marred by Baltimore's idiotic lack of clock awareness at the end

A subplot of the season right now is the Tennessee Titans, dismissed as a fraud team from what I've been hearing within media.    Fan reaction from the 12-7 loss at the Cardinals typifies the overreaction football breeds, with demands Mariota be benched, coach Mike Mularkey be fired, and even savaging of the Titans ownership group as somehow uncommitted to winning.    Some sobriety is always in order - the Titans certainly acquitted themselves dismally on offense as the defense erupted to eight sacks and zero touchdown allowed; as for Mariota going forward as a quarterback, his ability should not be doubted, as he led comebacks in both Colts games - Tennessee's first sweep of the Colts since 2002 -  and also triumphed in back-and-forth affairs against the Browns (a troublesome matchup for the Titans dating from 2001's 41-38 Browns win) and Ravens - both times where the game lead tied or changed at least four times - led the comeback drive against the Bengals, and has beaten eight playoff-contending teams (Detroit, Green Bay, Miami, Kansas City, Denver, Jacksonville, Seattle, and Baltimore) in the last two seasons (the 2016 win over division champ Houston was Matt Cassel's game); in all the Titans have won 17 of their last 28 games. 

While the Titans may not reach the Superbowl the growth they've shown the last two seasons in undeniable - and legitimate.   Mariota's volume stats this year aren't anything to shout about - but then situational execution is what wins, and for the most part Mariota has done just that.

Seven underdogs won in Week 14, so we can expect dogs to dog in Week 15 -


Colts over Broncos -   Two teams with lost seasons finish out the season simply looking for some kind of positivity.   Embarrassing the NY Jets gave the Broncos just that, but they are 0-6 in road games this year vs. Indy's 2-4 home record.


Lions over Bears -  The Bears likewise got a boost by embarrassing the Bengals, but here they face a Lions team still with a playoff shot and which beats up on teams with losing records; it's quality opponents the Lions don't beat.


Chiefs over Chargers - San Diego has surged and Kansas City's beating of the Raiders doesn't fix all their problems, but the Chiefs have owned the Chargers the last five games, winning by an average score of 27-14; it gets worse considering San Diego hasn't beaten the Chiefs since 2013.


Saints over NY Jets  - The old joke that Jets means Just End The Season is on again.   The Saints look like NFC South locks though a playoff bye now looks out of reach.

Panthers over Packers -  Carolina got a quality win over the Vikings and are just about clinched for the playoffs, while the Packers can only finish 10-6 and that is unlikely to be enough.   Even if Aaron Rodgers returns for this game the Panthers have too much to grab to let this one go, especially as they are seventh in passing yards allowed per game.


Jaguars over Texans -  Speaking of all but clinching the playoffs, the Jaguars are likewise close enough that they won't let this one slip away to a Houston team that is looking to 2018 and DeShaun Watson's return.   Until then the Texans have only the string to play out.   Noteworthy is that Blake Bortles has broken 80 in passer rating eight times this season.


Vikings over Bengals -  So when does AJ McCarron finally start for the Bengals?   By now it's clear Andy Dalton can't get it done.


Eagles over NY Giants -  Eli Manning - forget it.   The question is how well Nick Foles plays.


Cardinals over Redskins -  Oddly enough the Cardinals are salvaging a respectable season despite losing Carson Palmer.   Blaine Gabbert is validating Bruce Arians' praise that he can play; meanwhile the Redskins have lost six of their last nine games and have been downright awful in their last two.

Bills over Dolphins -  Salvaging a winning season is a reachable goal for the Bills, salvaging anything for the Dolphins this season disappeared when Ryan Tannehill went down even with Jay Cutler actually winning a game against the Patriots. 


Ravens over Browns -   Blowing a 21-7 lead to a vulnerable Packers squad is the kind of loss bad teams don't recover from.   The sad part for the Browns is DeShone Kizer finally showed actual winning ability.   The Ravens for their part have to be bashing their heads at blowing clock management at Pittsburgh last week.


Rams over Seahawks -   The Rams and Seahawks both lost last week and the Rams hold only a one-game lead having lost earlier this year at the Coliseum.   Seattle, however, does not have the same muscle they had before and while they can put up points they've struggled on their vaunted defense and homefield advantage isn't as effective anymore after losses to the Redskins and Falcons. 


Patriots over Steelers -   Pittsburgh has long struggled against the Patriots, losing twelve of the last seventeen meetings, but the injury to Ryan Shazier not only is a traumatic development on a personal level, it has hurt the Steelers defense as shown by the Ravens.   New England's tight ends have long had success against Pittsburgh's defense and now the secondary has gelled to where we can expect Stephon Gilmore to hold his own against Antonio Brown.   The caveat is Tom Brady's poor play at Miami, with some reportage his Achilles is hurting him; we doubt he will let it ruin this game, and the other wildcard is newly-signed ex-Titan Kenny Britt, the tallest pass-catcher other than Gronk on the New England squad.


Titans over 49ers -  As of this writing Marcus Mariota's status is questionable, but given how he gutted it out despite a bum knee at Arizona we think he will play.   He certainly didn't dodge blame for his poor performance at Arizona.   The Niners meanwhile have finally begun playing better now that they have Jimmy Garoppolo, and he has shown unquestionable ability.   The Titans need this game a lot more than the Niners and we think this will tip the balance.


Raiders over Cowboys - This is our Upset Pick of this week.   The Cowboys are 7-6 and have won five of their last eight while the Raiders are 6-7 and 4-3 in their last seven.   The Cowboys have struggled against Western-division teams in both conferences (a combined 2-3 in such games with wins over the Niners and Chiefs and losses to the Broncos, Rams, and Chargers) and their playoff hopes are realistically gone; the same is true of the Raiders.  Both teams have been schizophrenic, we think being in Oakland on prime time will tilt to the Raiders.


Falcons over Buccaneers -   The Falcons hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Seahawks so every win from here on is vital; they get a break against a Bucs team that has nothing to play for now and with a quarterback in Jameis Winston who is just 2-8 this year, a stunning regression after a promising 2016. 



So we await which dogs get the upsets.

The National Foot-Brawl League Hits Week 13

Ah, the days of the National Foot-brawl League.........

Remember the old days when the Oakland Raiders were the dirtiest team in the league?

They still are.   Of course this brawl started last season between Michael Crabtree and Aqib Talib and it's in keeping with the wild wild west of the AFC.    And amid all that in Denver the Raiders clawed back into longshot contention for the playoffs.   They need to win out their remaining games and get some help outside - but with Kansas City's recent fate they or the Chargers may get it; the caveats are the Raiders get road games at Philly, Kansas City, and at the Chargers.  

The Raiders are one of ten AFC teams still in genuine playoff contention, so games coming forward matter even more.   We thus look at those coming up in the Lucky 13th week -

Redskins over Cowboys -  The collapse of the Cowboys has vaulted the Redskins into a wildcard playoff bid, and after beating the fallen Giants the Skins have momentum while the Cowboys are lost without Zeke Elliott.   The Deadskins vs. Cowpokes rivalry remains one of the NFL's most celebrated.

Vikings over Falcons -  1998 will always be the signature game in the history of this rivalry, and with Week 13 the Vikings and Falcons now both have something big to play for with Minnesota fighting for a playoff bye and the Falcons very much in contention for the NFC South.    Both teams have enough strength (Minnesota has one of the playoff byes while the Falcons are 7-4 at this juncture) to make this perhaps game of the week.   It's clear Case Keenum is for real for the Vikings and it's also clear there is no Superbowl hangover for the Falcons.   The edge goes to a Vikings team that already beat one of the NFC's strongest teams in the Rams.


49ers over Bears -  Does Mitchell Trubisky have a future?   For that matter does C. J. Beathard?   Jimmy Garoppolo's late-game touchdown looks to have been decisive in San Francisco's decision to start him over the struggling rookie, who has San Francisco's only win but overall has not made the team competitive with anyone.  Now we see how good Garoppolo can be and if he can elevate a struggling Niners squad.


Packers over Buccaneers - The former NFC Central rivalry is renewed and the Bucs come in with their season gone and the Packers come in off a heartbreaker of a loss at Pittsburgh.   Brent Hundley hasn't made his team competitive outside of beating the Bears until this game against the Steelers and he comes into this Bucs game with confidence after so stellar a performance as he displayed, while the Bucs come in without much reason for optimism.


Jaguars over Colts - The Jaguars come off their own bitter loss, this one at Arizona, and get the falling Colts, shutout the first time these two met this year.   The Jags' only career season sweep of the Colts was in 2011's Suck For Luck campaign; look for the playoff-bound Jaguars to get another sweep this year.


Dolphins over Broncos -  Two miserable teams without competent quarterbacking playing out the string.   The Broncos' philosophy of going all-in won them a Superbowl and they're now paying for it with complete irrelevance.  

Panthers over Saints -  Last time out the Saints and Panthers were still struggling to get some momentum going.   The Saints have done a better job of it but the Panthers have been sneaky strong and even with some poor quality play out of Cam Newton (who has failed to reach 200 passing yards in four of his last five games and posted passer ratings under 72 in five of the last six) the Panthers have strung together a very good season.   New Orleans appears to be losing some steam of late and the Panthers look to jump on top of a defense 12th in scoring vs. Carolina's 8th.


NY Jets over Chiefs - The faltering of the Chiefs continues, and now some are wondering if Patrick Mahomes will start; Andy Reid's Monday presser only added to this speculation.   We doubt it given he hasn't taken a snap all season.   The Jets meanwhile are still playing people tough.


Ravens over Lions - The main strike against the Lions remains inability to beat quality opponents; Week Four's win at the Vikings is their only win so far against a quality team.   The Ravens are only 18th in scoring, but they're still in playoff contention at 6-5 despite continuing struggle from a clearly-plateaued or worse Joe Flacco; in his last six games he's reached 200 yards only once and three of those times his passer rating failed to reach 80.


Patriots over Bills -  People have forgotten the real reason why Tyrod Taylor was benched - there is no growth left in him.    This reality should be displayed again as the Patriots race headlong toward the top seed in the conference while the Bills have faltered since starting 5-2.


Titans over Texans -  Another sneaky good team has been Tennessee.   Houston lit them up for 57 points in Week Four but things have changed completely since then with Tennessee winning five of the last seven.   Gagging up the ball has remained a problem for both teams with negative turnover differential for both, while on the ground the Titans are sixth in rushing going against Houston's sixth-ranked run defense.   The Texans are a M*A*S*H unit of injuries compared to Tennessee, and Deshaun Watson's absence remains felt.  Tom Savage's collapse against the Ravens erased positive momentum from Houston's win over the Cardinals.


Chargers over Browns - By now it isn't even fair.   The Browns did shock the Chargers last season but that was then and this is a Browns team that doesn't show any fight.


Raiders over NY Giants -  The collapse of the Giants remains one of the shockers of 2017 and the benching of Eli Manning has come under fire but in reality was overdue, with the aborted trade to the Jaguars now back into Rumor Control Central. The Raiders' hopes of the playoffs require a win in this game, and beating the Giants is something the Raiders haven't done since 2001. Up and down the stat line it's a game pitting weaknesses against weaknesses in run defense, rushing, etc.


Rams over Cardinals - This game has makings of a highly-competitive affair with the Rams coming in at 8-3 and the 5-6 Cardinals getting new life with Blaine Gabbert and a tight win over the Jaguars.   The Rams didn't light up the scoreboard as much as they presumably hoped against the Saints, but it was certainly enough, and the last five meetings have been a seesaw affair with the Rams winning three of the last five. 


Eagles over Seahawks - The old Seahawks dichotomy of losing on the road and winning all their home games has been shot down this season with back-to-back home losses to the Redskins and the Falcons.   The Eagles come in with four road wins so far and hold the edge in scoring, points allowed, and turnover differential.   Where the Seahawks might have an edge is in attacking Philly's passing defense, presently 16th in the league, though Russell Wilson's completion percentage has failed to reach 62% the last two games.   Seattle's pass defense has of course been wounded with multiple secondary injuries. 

Cincinnati hasn't beaten the Steelers since Week 8 of 2015


Steelers over Bengals - Mike Tomlin in a Sunday interview talked openly about facing the Patriots in several weeks, and thus gave away a lack of focus on next week's opponent.   Not that the 5-6 Bengals - a surprising 5-6 at that - are really much of a challenge (just one Bengals win in the last eight meetings) and the speculation that Marvin Lewis will finally be fired has resurfaced.   To their credit the Bengals are tenth in fewest points allowed and fifth in passing yards allowed per game. 



Well, Lucky 13 is on the NFL roulette wheel.

Special Teams Make Special Plays Entering Week 11

The Patriots special teams proved decisive in New England's 41-16 massacre of the Broncos, and New England's investment in special teams has long paid off.   

Amid the escalating war between Jerry Jones and Roger Goodell - and the laughable opulence of Goodell's reported contract extension demands including $50 million, a plane for life, and health insurance for his family (which Goodell can already pay for himself) - the story of Martellus Bennett quitting on the faltering Packers and jerking his way into getting cut and then getting signed by the Patriots is a curious melodrama.   Regardless of the machinations of a player who's been an ass everywhere except Foxboro, we have Week Ten coming up -

Titans over Steelers -  Tennessee has now won four straight games against AFC North teams and has won seven of the last ten meetings with AFC Central legacy teams (the Houston Texans alas really don't count as an AFC Central legacy team despite Houston being one of that division's longtime host towns) so they go to a Steelers team that had to rally against a scrappier-than-expected Colts team.   The Titans have outscored the Steelers 205 to 187 this season while the Steelers are second in points allowed.   Both teams are all but the same in turnover differential (Tennessee has a slight edge at plus-One to Pittsburgh's minus-One) and Roethlisberger and Mariota are roughly the same in touchdown to INT ratio; the Titans have an edge in run defense as well, so expect another taut affair.


Ravens over Packers - The surprise was that the Packers beat the Bears.   They are now 5-4 but taking on the 4-5 Ravens, who look like better competition now than was the case when Rodgers was still there.   The Ravens haven't beaten the Packers since bludgeoning Brett Favre 48-3 in 2005 yet the Packers don't look like a playoff team; that the Ravens aren't either doesn't lessen that they now have a better shot than they would be thought of having at the end of September.



Buccaneers over Dolphins - This was supposed to be Week One, but of course circumstances beyond anyone's control intervened.   The Bucs got a needed win over another AFC East team last week and now get another such team, this one the increasingly inept Dolphins, this despite a surprisingly competitive match against the Panthers last time out.   Ryan Fitzpatrick, the presumptive starter, got swept by the Dolphins last year, but that was with Ryan Tannehill as quarterback.

Saints over Redskins - Shocker of a stat - Drew Brees is 1-4 against the Skins as Saints quarterback (2-4 lifetime) as his Saints host the Skins on a seven-game winning streak.   The Skins can put up points as they did against a good defense in the Vikings and turnover differential is surprisingly close at minus-One for Washington and plus-Three for New Orleans.   The Saints however are exploding, so we think they win even if it takes a 52-35 style score to do it.


Jaguars over Browns - Two of the very first wins in Jaguars history were against the Cleveland Browns before they transmuted into the Baltimore Ravens.   There is literally nothing in this matchup that favors Cleveland. 


Cardinals over Texans -  The Texans are now taking a Savage beating with Tom as their quarterback.  The schizophrenic Cardinals got mildly embarrassed at home to the Seahawks and now go to a faltering Texans team.   Bill O'Brien's postgame acceptance of responsibility for poor quarterback play showcases again his inability to do something he is supposed to do - develop a quarterback.

Rams over Vikings - This could be Game Of The Year, two 7-2 powers head on.   Curiously the Rams' two losses have both been home losses as they host a Vikings team that is fifth in points allowed but only tenth in scoring, while the Rams are first in scoring, fourth in points allowed, and plus-Seven in turnover differential.   Minnesota's edge could be on the ground at 118 yards per game, the same number allowed per game by the Rams. 


Chiefs over NY Giants - The most damning evidence that Ben McAdoo will be fired is that he's spent his time enabling Odell Beckham Jr and it's clear the other players see this favoritism for an inept receiver who's a bitch.    The question now is whether Eli Manning goes to the Jaguars for 2018.


Lions over Bears -  Now we wonder if John Fox will last in Chicago.   If Matthew Stafford has to beat a bad team, he'll do it, albeit it may make it look like a deadlocked playoff game to do it. 


Bills over Chargers -  The Bills may now be falling out of the playoff race (they're clinging to the Number 6 seed at present) but they get an underwhelming Chargers team this week.   San Diego is woefully behind the Bills in turnover differential (Buffalo remains at plus-Eleven there), running the ball, and especially stopping the run (presently dead last in rushing yards allowed per game).    


Broncos over Bengals - Maybe this week the collapsing Broncos get a respite with the subpar Bengals, coming in off a bitter loss at Tennessee, 1-3 since their bye week, 30th in scoring, and with Vontaze Burfict getting tossed from games yet again.    One wonders if either coach will make it after Week 17.


Patriots over Raiders, Mexico City -  The Raiders have faltered to 4-5, the Patriots now appear to be the unstoppable machine they've largely been for over fifteen years.    Most encouraging for the Patriots - Tom Brady threw to nine different pass catchers and the stats between catches was strikingly even.   Spreading the ball breaks up the opponent defense every time.


Eagles over Cowboys -  The Eagles lead the NFC for a reason, and the Cowboys suddenly look a lot weaker without Zeke Elliott.   NFC East games usually become tight affairs so we should expect a taut game and a lot of points with both teams in the top-eight in points and midpack in points allowed. 


Seahawks over Falcons - The Seahawks stubbed their toe at home against the Redskins but now get a Falcons team that has struggled this season, especially on turnovers (minus-Three to Seattle's plus-Six).   Oddly, the Falcons are sixth in pass defense where the Seahawks are just 13th. 


So we await special plays by special players on special teams - and everyone else. 

Week Ten Says Fifty Four Forty Or Fight

As we approach NFL Week Ten we saw some NHL action break out in Week Nine

A hit on CJ Beatherd led to a brawl with three ejections in the Cardinals rout of the Niners

Jameis Winston and Mike Evans got into it with Sean Payton and Marshon Lattimore

AJ Green and Jaylen Ramsey as the Bengals and Jaguars brought back some of the old hatreds of the AFC Central


So with players and teams demanding "Fifty-four forty or fight," the league takes the fight to Week Ten.

Cardinals over Seahawks  -  Are the Cardinals back in this?  Adrian Peterson's rebirth (in three games he's hit over 300 yards and 4.2 YPC and even caught three passes for twenty yards) suggests they are, and they get a Seahawks squad still with a less-than-intimidating road reputation and whose homefield edge took a big hit with the loss to the Redskins.   Seattle's kicking situation with Blair Walsh may now be a problem after three gags against the Skins.


Bills over Saints  -  The New Orleans Saints are for real again, 6-2 and in the thick of the NFC's race for the playoff byes.   They are, though, 1-1 against AFC East foes this year and they go to Buffalo, a reborn outfit 2-1 against NFC South teams (head coach Sean McDermott also spent the previous six seasons as the Panthers defensive coordinator and went 7-5 against the Saints in that span) and smarting from an ugly performance against a Jets team they'd beaten earlier this season.


NY Jets over Buccaneers -  A frontrunner for disappointment of the season, the Bucs have slid out of contention and Jameis Winston is getting hurt more often; he's been benched for the next three games by the team, ostensibly to recuperate from injury but his role in the sideline brawl may be a factor, while Mike Evans got suspended for one game.  


Steelers over Colts -  The Colts got a morale booster in winning at Houston, but they get a far better quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger (4-2 lifetime vs the Colts) this time around and it does not appear Jacoby Brissett can handle an opponent like this.


Titans over Bengals -  The Bengals have slunk back into their previous status as The Bungles.  AJ Green's fight in the Jaguars game was a graphic metaphor for the collapse of the team, and they get a Titans team now solidly on its way forward.


Vikings over Redskins -  The Vikings lost to the Skins last season and enter at 6-2 to the Redskins' 4-4, and beating the Seahawks at Seattle is a big confidence-booster, but Minnesota looks to have more overall firepower.


Jaguars over Chargers -  The Jaguars have turned back the clock to 1996-99 and look like they'll keep that memory lane trip going.  The Chargers, though, have been scrappier than expected this season.


Bears over Packers - The Bears come out of their bye to host the Packers and the Packers are as bad as advertised after a 30-17 embarrassment at home to the Lions.    Brent Hundley won't win the Packers many games - if he even wins any - and the Bears have opportunity to gain Mitchell Trubisky experience and needed confidence.

 

 

Lions over Browns -  The Why Me, Why Is It Always Me? tour for the Browns continues as they go to Detroit.    This rivalry is remembered for one game above all others............

Matthew Stafford's first signature win was in 2009 when he erased a 24-3 gap to stun the Browns - and Eric Mangini - despite breaking his left shoulder



                                         



Rams over Texans - Speaking of memory lanes, when did the Rams re-sign Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Ike Bruce, and Torry Holt?  The Texans, meanwhile, saw their future with Tom Savage in another bitter loss, this one wasting a strong comeback effort.


Cowboys over Falcons - The Falcons are clearly declining and we're not sure their struggles on offense are fixable as they take on a Cowboys team still in the fight despite the Zeke Elliott saga.


49ers over NY Giants -  The 2017 Toilet Bowl between two teams with ONE win between them.   We think Jimmy Garoppolo makes his 49ers debut in this one (this amid some bizarre speculation he could be dealt after this season) and this should be enough edge over a Giants team that can't seem to do anything.


Patriots over Broncos - The collapse of the Broncos is now obvious and their defense can't be considered all that great anymore, especially with an awful turnover differential of minus-11 vs. New England's plus-four.   The Patriots may get Malcolm Mitchell back at receiver, and they can use him with their offense struggling the last several games.

Panthers over Dolphins - Cam Newton can wear all the cheesy suits he wants facing a moribund Dolphins team off a home loss that was more lopsided than their garbage-time touchdown would indicate.  

No Forfeits Allowed In Week Nine

The Texans game at the Seahawks became Game Of The Week, and it started as such for all the wrong reasons.   An ESPN piece quoted team owner Bob McNair during a league meeting saying, "We can't have the inmates running the prison."   There is literally nothing in his statement that is an attack on anyone, yet media coverage enflamed idiotic player fury to where forty players kneeled for the Anthem to protest McNair's statement.   That players took offense at McNair's statement did nothing but prove him correct.   The players' protest was an incredibly petulant hissy-fit, the kind of mob rule he is speaking against - making it worse is players wanted to tear off the team logo from their helmets until someone got through to these dimbulb divas that it would thus forfeit the game - and further disproves the legitimacy of the whole Anthem protest movement.  

What followed in the actual game then showcased football at its best.   Deshaun Watson overcame three INTs and getting sacked five times to reach 402 yards and four touchdowns in shredding the increasingly-overrated Seahawks defense, which got torched by the Titans for 420 yards of offense and 33 points.   Russell Wilson erupted to a Seahawks-record 452-plus yards and whipped the winning score in the final thirty seconds.   The 41-38 win keeps the Seahawks in the NFC West race and makes Houston's AFC South chances all the harder  - especially when Houston failed to record a first down in the final two minutes - with Tennessee still leading the division despite being on their bye week. 

And then NFL trade deadline week turned upside down with the first volley rifled from a team on their bye - the New England Patriots.   They traded Jimmy Garoppolo, always believed to be the heir-apparent to (longtime Niners fan) Tom Brady, to the Niners for a second-round pick.  

With all that we delve into Week Nine's affairs -

Bills over NY Jets  - More and more the Bills look for real.   Though subpar in overall offense (just 15th in scoring) they began to change that in their win over the Raiders while their defense (fourth in points) embarrassed the Raiders.   They take on a Jets team in the bottom half on both sides of the ball and coming off a loss to the slumping Falcons.   


Eagles over Broncos - The 7-1 Eagles meanwhile are making an ever-stronger case for themselves and they get a Broncos team that clearly has has fallen to 3-4.   Carson Wentz is showing the growth needed to reach another level as a quarterback while it is obvious from another irrelevant performance in Kansas City (lowlighted by checkdown throws on the final possession) that Trevor Siemian's NFL career is becoming a failure.


Texans over Colts - Remember when the Colts owned the Houston Texans?  Forget it.   Even with good play by Jacoby Brissett the Colts simply are no longer a playoff team and may not even reach six wins.   The Texans meanwhile have a quarterback who already looks better than Andrew Luck was and after scoring 38 against the Seahawks taking on the Colts should be relative child's play.  The caveat, though, is some questionable playcalling by Bill O'Brien in the Seattle loss.   


Rams over NY Giants  - The turnaround of the Rams remains one of the stories of the season as they lead the league in scoring and are tenth in points allowed, and the biggest irony is the Rams are just 1-2 at home and 4-0 on the road.   They hit the road again off their bye at MetLife Stadium, where the Giants are 0-3 and just 30th in scoring.  


Titans over Ravens -  This is one of the tightest rivalries in the NFL.   The Ravens lead the series 10-9, two of the wins playoff wins, and the last six games have been a 3-3 split by a combined score of 107-94 Tennessee.   The Ravens defense is sixth in points though is giving up the same yards per pass (5.4) as is being delivered by Joe Flacco while the run defense is giving up 4.2 yards per carry.   They have to deal with a Titans run game generating 4.4 YPC and Tennessee's run defense is limiting teams to 3.6 YPC.   Tennessee's 27th in points allowed (24 and change per game) is a little inflated by the 57-point beatdown they got in the first game with Houston; 19 points allowed in their other six games is the Titans' allowance on defense.   Turnover differential - 0 - is likewise skewed by the Houston game, as Tennessee has plus-5 in turnover differential the rest of the season, the same as Baltimore's all season with seven takeaways the last five games and no giveaways the last two.   Where the Titans appear to have the edge is in Marcus Mariota's 7.4 yards per pass to the above-mentioned 5.4 of Flacco.

Panthers over Falcons -  Both teams look more like walking wounded than playoff contenders, but both are coming off needed wins.   Cam Newton's postgame petulance has become an issue while the Falcons' disastrous encounters with AFC East teams haunted them going into MetLife Stadium against the Jets.   The Falcons have won the last three meetings with the Panthers and have beaten all their NFC foes to date, but the Panthers appear to have regained more momentum right now.


Jaguars over Bengals -  The Bengals defeated the Colts, but the Colts now have become what the Jaguars have been for over five years before this.   Jacksonville's defense has become legit and the inconsistency of the offense has nonetheless been enough to put the Jaguars in the AFC South race.   One simply doesn't have the confidence that Andy Dalton can improve anymore to become what the Bengals need, while the ballyhooed rookie running back race is being won by Leonard Fournette over Joe Mixon.


Saints over Buccaneers -  We weren't expecting this.   The Saints have rallied from being a perennial 7-9 team to genuine NFC South contender while the Bucs have faltered to 2-4 and despite leading the league in passing yards per game Jameis Winston hasn't yet taken another step forward.   Hurting the Bucs' chances more is being 0-3 on the road to date.


49ers over Cardinals -  Trading for Garoppolo makes all the sense in the world because 0-8 is a dubious "achievement" for the 49ers and their competitiveness took back-to-back blows in ugly losses to NFC East teams.   Here though they host a Cardinals team whose quarterback, Carson Palmer, is on IR until Christmas Eve.   Right now we think Garoppolo may start this game; he gets a Niners run game at 4.3 YPC, which isn't bad, though stuck in the bottom third in the league.   Arizona's run game is now led by a resurgent Adrian Peterson, and right now that may be what they need to depend on.


Seahawks over Redskins -  The Seahawks continue to hold serve at home and despite Houston's imitation of Seahawks radio analyst Warren Moon, the Seahawks still lead the league in points allowed.   The 38 points given up to Houston, though, should encourage teams that Seattle's defense is vulnerable.   The Redskins, however, don't appear to be a team that can exploit weaknesses.


Chiefs over Cowboys -  The Boys got back in town against the Skins but Andy Reid has still shown magic against his former division and regained momentum with Monday Night's beating of the faltering Broncos.


Raiders over Dolphins  -  The Dolphins took a massive blow in getting obliterated 40-0, a game so bad Adam Gase said in so many words "we stink."   The Raiders come in needing to regain momentum after five losses in their last six games, and Derek Carr is all too obviously the better of the dueling quarterbacks. 

Packers over Lions -  The Lions will not make the playoffs.  Period.   They face a quality opponent and they lose, having done so again against the Steelers.   We're not sure the Packers are a quality foe right now but they're at home and they face a Lions team demoralized by four losses in their last five games. 



So it goes as we await more trade deadline surprises.

Week Four Hits The Floor As Week Five Hopes To Dive

Week Four, like most NFL weeks, didn't go "according to plan" and now "the plan" will need adjustment going forward.

The Patriots' defensive struggles this season have drawn the most attention because they are all but dead last in points allowed and breakdowns have drawn heavy attention, notably by defensive back Stephon Gilmore and dismal technique against the Panthers that got him benched for the start of the second half of that game until injury to Eric Rowe forced him back into the field.  Gilmore issues date to his last season in Buffalo where he criticized teammates following the Bills' 41-25 loss to the Patriots.    But issues go well beyond Gilmore and bring to mind the demotion of Malcolm Butler for freelancing in the first two games.   The term "communication issues" has become a cliche but it nonetheless indicates these are correctable problems - something the Patriots do better than the rest of the league.



Patriots over Buccaneers -  This looks like a shaky pick given the short turnaround time for the Patriots and the fact the Bucs are playing well overall.   At 2-1 the Bucs are top-16 on both sides of the ball and Jameis Winston has been solid.   The Patriots will likely have another high-scorer of a game here and we expect some more discipline on defense - Butler and Gilmore already got benched for freelancing once, and they'll get it again if they don't do what they're told.


49ers over Colts -  The 49ers come off a heartbreaker of an overtime loss and have only scored nine points a game outside of the explosion against the Rams - and are in the bottom quarter on both sides of the ball - but they get a Colts team even worse, especially against NFC West teams where they've given up 46 points twice already.   Andrew Luck is supposed to return to practice, but at this point does it really matter?


NY Jets over Browns - Forget Suck For Sam - the Jets are tied for second in the AFC East despite being 21st on both sides of the ball, and put up 471 yards against the Jaguars.   Having already surpassed the number of wins that would make having the draft pick needed for Sam Darnold feasible, the Jets now realistically have to ride as forward as they can, getting the winless - again - Browns, a team punchless on offense.


Steelers over Jaguars -  The first two weeks are now history a Steelers team second in points allowed (yet just 18th in scoring) hosts their former AFC Central mates in the Jaguars.   The Jags have become a lot better than they've been the last five-plus years and are in the top-six on both sides of the ball; this may be a tighter game than the oddsmakers presently think.


NY Giants over Chargers -  By now it's almost a fait accompli that San Diego will get the Chargers back; fir this week the winless Chargers have to fly to East Rutherford, NJ and the winless Giants in the battle of 2004's Draft Trade Bonanza.


Bills over Bengals - We're not sold yet on the Bengals while the Bills have surprised people storming to 3-1 and leading the league in fewest points allowed.   Sustaining this seems more possible with the new coach in Buffalo than we've seen in the past with quick Buffalo starts.


Lions over Panthers -  Both teams are fourth in points allowed but the Lions have the edge in scoring and Cam Newton's game hasn't advanced. 


Titans over Dolphins -  This one would be an easier pick if Marcus Mariota hadn't gotten hurt in the Cylon invasion of a loss at Houston; with the signing of Brandon Weeden the Titans at least have a backup with presumptive starter Matt Cassel.   Tennessee is fortunate they get a Dolphins team where Jay Cutler has proven as bad (dead last in scoring) as advertised. 


Eagles over Cardinals  -  So far the only team to beat the Eagles is the one coached by their former boss Andy Reid, and the 2-2 Cardinals don't look like a team that can elevate their play, especially stuck with Carson Palmer despite last week's eye-popping overtime win.  Carson Wentz's six scores to two picks stands well above the five INTs of Palmer.


Raiders over Ravens  -  This one has been thrown asunder with Derek Carr's back injury and the elevation of EJ Manuel, the ex-Bill looking for his first win since beating the Dolphins in Week 2 of 2014.   Joe Flacco hasn't been much of an improvement right now with six INTs to just four touchdowns and a 2-2 record.

Rams over Seahawks - The Seahawks are 9-11-1 on the road starting with 2015's Week One loss at the Rams.    The Rams have exploded on offense, especially in their two road games so far, and have won four of their last six meetings with the Seahawks.   Sunday night's massacre of the Colts make the Seahawks look better than they ultimately are.


Cowboys over Packers - The Cowboys haven't forgotten last season's playoff loss to the Packers despite their present schizophrenia.  They can turn it on against a Packers team that's been mediocre on defense.


Chiefs over Texans - This has become an early candidate for playoff preview as the unbeaten Chiefs take on a rapidly-improved Texans team.   The Chiefs under Andy Reid won three straight before last season's upset and this is the fourth-straight game at Houston for Kansas City.   Deshaun Watson's eruption has caught many an eye with seven touchdowns plus two on the ground - he's also presently second in rushing behind Lamar Miller and is head-and-shoulders ahead of everyone in Yards Per Carry at 7.8.   An edge the Texans may have over the Chiefs - Kansas City's scoring has cooled off since Week One.


Vikings over Bears -  The Mitchell Trubisky era begins this week after five INTs by Mike Glennon and ten overall turnovers in the last three games.   The Bears now need Trubisky to live up to the hope as they get a Vikings team that has been radically uneven in scoring.  Sam Bradford is still day-to-day and that makes it harder for the Vikings, but overall they seem to have a slight edge for the moment.



So we await whether Stephon Gilmore makes the game-winning play.

Bread And Butter Lead To Week Three

The Patriots scrapped the gameplan used against the Chiefs and went back to their bread-and-butter offense and crushed the New Orleans Saints


Week Two saw an expected improvement in crispness of play outside of the Thursday Night affair between Houston and Cincinnati; there is also a subplot with the CFL banning padded full-contact practices, a change the NFL is monitoring but which won't be reciprocated.    With two weeks of the season, some trends are beginning to develop.    We look back at Week Two while making our picks for Week Three -


#####


Rams over 49ers - 

The Rams' schedule turned out to be easier than some expected, though the Redskins looked like a good team again.   The Rams now fly to San Francisco with the Niners staring at 0-2.   They've shown some more fight than expected, notably at Seattle.



Patriots over Texans -New England diversified the offense by diversifying who got the touches, this after putting in an Edelman offense against the Chiefs.   The Patriots also dodged a bullet with injuries to Gronkowski, Chris Hogan, and newcomer Philip Dorsett, who caught three passes for 68 yards and thus showed he can flesh out a depleted receiving corps that didn't get a catch until 13:09 into the first quarter at New Orleans.    Injury to Donta Hightower appears to be such that if he misses any time at all it will be two games tops.    They get their first look at DeShaun Watson, who has thrown 47 passes with 27 completions for a measely five yards per completion (and a passer rating of 68.15) and whose primary attack so far is rushing the ball (seven rushes for 83 yards and a score).  The Texans defense is long hyped but got exposed by the Jaguars and the Patriots are not running the Edelman offense anymore, which makes the odds higher for the struggling Texans.  J.J. Watt in particular always seems to go into Witness Protection when he plays the Patriots.

The Raiders are the Raiders again, and the NY Jets are.......well, in full Suck For Sam - that's Darnold - mode, right down to a punt bouncing off Kalif Raymond's helmet and becoming a Raiders scoring drive just past the two-minute warning

Dolphins over NY Jets -   22nd in points while gagging up four turnovers, dead last in points allowed - Suck For Sam is the operating phrase of the 2017 NY Jets, with about the only positive being Jermaine Kearse.   The Dolphins meanwhile come in after an escape job at the Chargers, their first win in their first game of the season

The Titans overcame a costly INT by Mariota to crush the Jaguars, who crashed back to earth after their eye-opening win over the Texans

Ravens over Jaguars at London -The NFL hits London for the first time this year and the Ravens come in at 2-0 while the Jaguars got a rude awakening in a 37-16 home embarrassment by the Titans.   While the Jags are averaging 22 points scored the Ravens are averaging that same number with ten points per game allowed, plus ten turnovers forced.   Joe Flacco hasn't put up monster numbers but he has three touchdowns to two INTs, slightly better than Blake Bortles and his seeming regression back to subpar quarterbacking status.



Buccaneers over Vikings - The Vikings have quarterback problems again with Sam Bradford forced to sit out the loss at Pittsburgh; if he can't go against the Bucs we're not sure the Vikings can generate enough for a win.   Their former NFC Central division mates are in the top-seven in points and points allowed, albeit having only played one game.   Forcing four turnovers (one Robert McClain's pick six) vs the Bears certainly does make a case for the Bucs defense while Jameis Winston played a solid game.



Eagles over NY Giants - The Eagles fell again to their former coach and didn't force a turnover after forcing four by the Redskins, but they get a Giants team that is 0-2, last in offense and whose star - Odell Beckham Jr. - is transmuting more into a marketing-oriented locker room cancer instead of a playmaker.   The irony is Eli Manning has completed some 75% of his passes so far vs. Carson Wentz' 60%, yet is playing so poorly his own head coach has publicly called him out - not a sign of a season that is developing in a positive manner.



Panthers over Saints - It's now obvious the Saints have no future with Sean Payton and perhaps not with Drew Brees; 0-2 advertises at best another 7-9 season as they take on the offensively-mediocre Panthers who with that are leading the league in fewest points allowed.   Cam Newton's career-long struggles with completion percentage continue at 59 and change and just two touchdowns.  Rookie Christian McCaffrey has shown spark but not much sustained production at an abysmal 2.7 yards per carry; he's done more damage catching the ball (nine catches for 72 yards).   Given the recent history of this series with back-to-back 41-38 games twice in the last three meetings we could see points scored here.


Colts over Browns -  This is a risky pick because the Colts have collapsed (they're in the bottom six in the league on both sides of the ball) to where 8-8 may be beyond their reach.   The Browns aren't in better shape though after DeShone Kizer went out with a migrane against the Ravens.   Right now we think Jacoby Brissett will start for the Colts; he constituted an improvement over Scott Tolzien and the Colts were competitive to the end against the Cardinals, but this one could get ugly.

The Falcons are now 2-0 while Aaron Rodgers fell to 1-1

Falcons over Lions -  The Falcons are showing no sign of a Superbowl collapse hangover, though they could have done somewhat better putting away their game against the perennially-overrated Packers.   This week they travel to Detroit, 2-0 after a comeback against the Cards and manhandling the Giants.   Look for the points to pile up here.

Trevor Siemian exploded the Broncos offense like we haven't seen it since Peyton Manning's 2013 season 

Broncos over Bills -  The Bills didn't get it done against an offensively-mediocre Panthers team, this week they face a Broncos team that is fourth in points scored after averaging 20th in points scored the previous two seasons.   Trevor Siemian didn't put up this kind of explosiveness before (four touchdowns, 68% completion, a 116 passer rating) and such a surge of offense spells trouble for opponents down the road, provided he sustains it - something he didn't quite do in his quasi-rookie season. 


Steelers over Bears -  How much longer will the Mike Glennon experiment continue?  At this rate we don't think he'll be starter by latter-October as the Steelers come in looking for their third-straight win.

Titans over Seahawks -   The Seahawks are fifth in defense but that is somewhat illusory after a loss to the mediocre Packers and the win over the struggling 49ers, plus the Seahawks have locker room issues and have had them since Richard Sherman played his way to getting traded only to see the Seahawks unable to finish that job; Michael Bennett's self-serving character assassination of Vegas cops further displays a poisonous Seahawks locker room culture, one not conducive to winning - and something they haven't done well on the road, having lost ten (with the 2016 tie at Arizona for good measure) of their last twenty road games.  They go to Tennessee fresh off the Titans' 37-16 pasting of the Jaguars, presently ninth in scoring though Marcus Mariota's completion percentage in two games  reached 60% against the Raiders but faded to 55 and change against the Jaguars with a pick. 

Packers over Bengals - At the Falcons Aaron Rodgers lost for the 42nd time in 52 comeback attempts and the 32nd time in 36 games when he's trailed by at least two scores.  Should the Falcons finish with a winning record Rodgers will thus have lost in 36 comeback tries against a quality opponent; overall the Packers are 15th in points and 17th in points allowed.    This week Rodgers gets a Bengals team that has collapsed almost out of the box despite being seventh in fewest points allowed.

2015 breakdown of AJ McCarron

The idiotic story that some Bengals players are lobbying for the inept Colin Kaepernick instead of Dalton's backup AJ McCarron is mind-boggling, for McCarron when he had to play in 2015 showed genuine form and in particular was far better than Andy Dalton in the playoff game that season, erasing a 15-0 Steelers lead and putting the Bengals into the lead late.     



Chiefs over Chargers  -  USC outdrew the combined attendances of the Chargers and Rams in LA - this spells for all to see that the NFL made a complete mistake moving even one team to the worst sports market in the country. The Chiefs make their first trip to LA since November 10, 1991, a 27-20 win at Anaheim Stadium won on Derrick Thomas' fumble return score in the fourth.  The Chiefs come in looking like world-beaters despite being 25th in points allowed, while the Chargers are livid at back-to-back losses on missed FGAs by the rookie YoungHoe Koo, a mind-numbingly bad 25% field goal percentage.   The worst part for the Chargers is Philip Rivers has stormed to 73.6% completion (106.4 passer rating) and four touchdowns; he faces Alex Smith and his 77% completion rate (a whopping 134.1 passer rating). 

             

Raiders over Redskins - The Skins are mediocre at 1-1 and 27th in points allowed; they are getting decent play out of Kirk Cousins. At the Rams three Redskins backs erupted for 222 yards and the Skins have averaged 5.2 yards per carry so far. The Raiders come in leading the league in points, tenth in points allowed, 126.5 passer rating for Derek Carr, and are themselves averaging 5.2 YPC on the ground but are getting hit at 4.8 YPC allowed, they've also lost three of their last five road games.  Even so the Raiders look like the Raiders again where the Redskins look like the dysfunctional mess they've been since the mid-1990s.



Cardinals over Cowboys  -   An ominous development was showcased in Dallas' loss to the Broncos - when Zeke Elliott was shut down the Cowboys offense fell apart - Dak Prescott threw 50 passes with 30 completions and two touchdowns but was picked off twice; targeted sixteen times Dez Bryant had just seven catches for 59 yards and a score.    That the Cowboys are this one-dimensional - and publicly attacking each other with the story Elliott quit on the game - shakes confidence in their season going forward as they go to a Cardinals team that pulled off an unexpected win at Indianapolis. 



We thus await Week Three