The Latest Deflategate Scam

The latest fiasco in the NFL is that the NY Giants reported two footballs from their loss to the Steelers measured 11.4 and 11.8 PSI, yet the story has aroused ZERO interest from the NFL - indeed the league has gone out of its way - and in amateurish fashion - to downplay it.

The reason is obvious - nothing happened here and the fact nothing happened vindicates the New England Patriots.   And the fact the Patriots are proven - again - right is a fact Roger Goodell does not want to acknowledge, because to acknowledge he was wrong is to say to the world what the NFL needs to admit to itself - Goodell is a liar who never should have been elected commissioner.

Sally Jenkins provides the gory details and Dan Wetzel states what should be obvious - Goodell owes Brady an apology. Of course Goodell also owes the Patriots, the New Orleans Saints, the Tennessee Titans (fined because Goodell had a snit over their present ownership structure), and a hell of a lot of others an apology as well.

Tom Brady 201 Wins

NFL Films montage of Tom Brady's 201 career wins - the most in NFL history.

Tom Brady Mocks Roger Goodell

Week Six: Brady Bombs While Kaepernick Delivers A Dud

Two weeks ago fourteen NFL teams were 1-3 or 0-4.    Two weeks later we suddenly have signs some of these teams have begun a turnaround from what is almost always the kiss of death for making the playoffs.

The first sign this weekend was going to be a little upside down was San Diego's upset of the Broncos on Thursday Night.   Despite a lack of scoring and some bafflingly conservative playcalling in the fourth quarter, the Chargers took down the Broncos, who no longer look as powerful as advertised, plus the Chargers look like a completely different defense with Joey Bosa now up and running.

A team with little worry about making the playoffs welcomed its Hall Of Famer for his first home game of the year.   Tom Brady responded with another F4 Phantom sortie - Brady delivered the bombs and shot down the Cincinnati Bengals, this amid some cheap hitting by the Bengals, who made a game of it until Andy Dalton got sacked for a safety and the Patriots erupted from there on - continuing the reputation of the Patriots as the machine of the NFL and continuing Cincinnati's reputation for lack of leadership, cheap hitting, lack of discipline, and insistence on winning with athleticism and talent instead of focused, smart play.

Contrast this with the other big story entering Week Six's slate of games - Colin Kaepernick's return to the starting job of the 49ers.   Kaepernick's spark lasted all of one half as the Niners clawed to a 14-13 halftime gap, then the Bills outscored the Niners 31-6.   Kaepernick finished showing his flaws as a quarterback are still there - he completed just thirteen of 29 passes and ran more than competent quarterbacks are supposed to run.    Fitting that T-shirts showing Kaepernick in a gunsight were sold before the game.

The sickest catch of the year so far was Jaelen Strong's catch of Brock Osweiler's bomb, a bomb worthy of Warren Moon and a dagger to the Indianapolis Colts.   The Houston comeback - from down two touchdowns - has suddenly made the AFC South a legitimate division race.

Easily the game of the day was another rip-roaring affair between the Panthers and the Saints, who fought to a 41-38 thriller last season and this time the result was reversed.   Though they fell to 1-5 the Panthers actually showed some reason for salvaging a decent season as they kept coming back and Cam Newton appeared to begin getting some rhythm back.

Marcus Mariota authored the first two-game winning streak of his career and authored the Tennessee Titans to their first win over the Cleveland Browns in the last three meetings.    Cody Kessler returned under center for the Browns and the Browns made a taut game of it despite falling to 0-6.   Kessler has played well overall even without a win, and the Browns may not get much of a record this year but I'm not seeing them going 0-16 now; Kessler has too much upside for that.   For that matter Mariota is also giving the league reason to believe the Titans will build to a playoff power down the road.

In addition to genuine promise from Cody Kessler the Browns are seeing play to be proud of from ex-Raiders ex-quarterback Terrell Pryor.    League fans should want the Browns to turn it around with the genuine talent we're seeing from Kessler and Pryor.

The AFC West just got a lot more curious as the Kansas City Chiefs shot down the rising Raiders and thus began to claw back into the playoff race.   It ended a bad week for Oakland fans with the Las Vegas Stadium now a fait accompli despite no credible evidence of any actual fanbase in Vegas.

Odell Beckham's sideline meltdowns have become the story for the NY Giants but against the slumping Baltimore Ravens Beckham erupted.   It was a taut finish as the Ravens scored around the 2-minute warning only to see Eli Manning explode with some 1:20 to go.    Combined with the Redskins' win over the Eagles the win puts the Giants back into the NFC East conversation.

But staying well out front in the NFC East is the Cowboys, whose rookie class of Dakota Prescott and Zeke Elliott is leading the Pokes on a rampage reminiscent of the glory days of Troy, Emmitt, Irvin, etc.   The Cowboys also continued the career trend for Aaron Rodgers, once again in over his head when he has to lead a comeback, perhaps best illustrated by his late-game fumble on 2nd and 6 before the follow-up fumble that effectively ended the game.  

Trouble in Pittsburgh?   One of my sources indicates a budding feud within the team involving coach Mike Tomlin; nobody did themselves well in getting humiliated by the struggling Dolphins.

Giving nightmares to the Steelers was Jay Ajayi, whose 204 yards further exposed the Steelers to be a dubious challenger.  

The Detroit Lions are making a case they're becoming a genuine challenger in a terrific game with the Rams, who've faltered after their early-season winning streak.    Matthew Stafford has struggled to string together consistent winning play over the years but Jim Caldwell, given up for dead by a lot of railbirds before the season, may be what Stafford has needed to go along with his talent.   Case Keenum meanwhile has also put together some encouraging play.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have quietly begun stringing together wins and erasing a two-touchdown gap in the fourth quarter at Chicago showed there's some fight in this squad.   

Oddly unnoticed have been the Seattle Seahawks, but they've surged ahead in the NFC West by edging a surging Falcons squad.   The Seahawks benefitted from a questionable non-call on Richard Sherman on Atlanta's last-gasp bomb.



So what does it all mean?   The Patriots, the Vikings, and - perhaps - the Cowboys and Seahawks appear to be the only sure thing in this season.   Six teams that were 1-3 won Thursday or Sunday and I suspect a number of formerly 1-3 teams will surprise people by December.

Why Goodell Is The Deflategate Loser

 

Two pieces in the wake of Tom Brady's decision to hand off the suit against the NFL to the NFLPA warrant a look. The first examines how Roger Goodell actually conducts player discipline hearings - and what it shows is Goodell is a demagogue with zero honesty and no desire to do anything but punish players for its own demented sake. Lawyer Peter Ginsberg notes that Goodell looks for reaffirmation of his view - "It's very difficult to have a genuine, authentic disagreement with Roger" - and writer Tim Rohan notes Goodell takes personal offense when a player defends himself to him.

It's a pattern noted in the past by sports law professor Jeffrey Standen and by writer Sally Jenkins. Jenkins comes out firing yet again by noting that the myth of Goodell having more power now than before is false - "vain NFL owners" publicly won't admit they made a mistake electing him commissioner but privately have been working to undermine him, between negotiating with the NFLPA on a new personal conduct policy and already starting to declaw Goodell with the hiring of Tod Leiweke as league CCO and ex-White House press flak Joe Lockhart (who reports to Leiweke rather than Goodell) as VP of Communications. Indeed, the July 19 Monday Morning Quarterback story by Jenny Vrentas - "The Goodell Decade" - serves mostly as a mawkish disinformation piece to press the myth of Goodell as more powerful than ever.

The owners have already started cleaning up after him. Standen noted it took some five votes in 2006 before they agreed to elect him Commissioner. It clearly is a sign that they now quietly feel they were wrong.

Worth remembering is fifty-six lies told by the NFL about Brady.

Brady Suspension Shockingly Reinstated

Presented is a piece from Pro Football Talk of Judge Katzmann's dissent (to be found on Page 34 of the Ruling) from the three judge Second Circuit appeals court's ruling for the NFL in suspending Tom Brady.

That Goodell's derangement has been personal and not driven by any objective understanding of the inner workings of the game (and the dishonesty displayed throughout this ordeal) brings to mind that his election as Commissioner needed multiple votes by the owners, who clearly had misgivings about his competence.    And time and bitter experience appears to be solidifying doubts among league owners.

Fire Roger Goodell

NOTE: This was first published on August 6, it was updated by early September, and has required another pertinent update at the end of October -


The suspension of Tom Brady took on a life of its own that the National Football League created, and the slamming of the league by Judge Richard Berman in overturning the suspension showed the league cannot escape without some fundamental change, for the campaign against Brady over the 2014 AFC Championship Game has revealed in graphic detail that there is no longer any justification for Roger Goodell to retain his job as NFL Commissioner.   Goodell has proven beyond any objective doubt that he is a failure and must be fired.

Why fire Goodell?  Let us count the ways -


Roger Goodell is maliciously ignorant of the game and of his job  - The transcript of the Brady appeal showed that the league was completely ignorant of the fact that footballs lose PSI naturally and it is just the latest example of how ignorant the Goodell-era NFL is about the game and of its own rulebook. That ignorance was first displayed in Spygate - as Scott Shaffer put it, "The media reports as if filming opposing coaches is a violation of NFL rules.   Roger Goodell shares this belief (and) based his punishment on it......However, the rules don't support this belief."   The start of Spygate was a 2006 memo sent to teams by Ray Anderson about sideline videotaping, a memo that misquoted the rules.   Goodell never tried to correct the error; instead he couldn't accept when Belichick schooled him on the rulebook and based punishment of Bill Belichick on cherry-picking the rulebook where Belichick applied the rule consistently.

Ignorance of the game continued with his punishment of the Saints over "Bountygate."   Goodell regarded player side bets for hits on opponents as some kind of rules violation,  and after a prolonged smear campaign and resultant legal fight (aided by the American Enterprise Institute's data disproving Goodell's premise of the Saints playing dirty) Goodell lost, and was publicly dressed down for his approach by former commissioner Paul Tagiabue.

The Brady transcript repeatedly shows Goodell being caught by surprise by new documents and generally being lazy and unprepared.

Goodell likes to talk unctuously about "the integrity of the game" - and has never offered any explanation why sideline videotaping somehow violates said integrity, or why a trumped-up allegation of football tampering somehow reflected a violation of the game's integrity.   It's because he has no clue about the integrity of the game.


Goodell refuses accountability, he strives to cover his own ass  -  The league falsifying the rulebook and then basing punishment on that falsified reading of the rulebook has become the pattern in Goodell's punishments.   As Matt Chatham and others have shown, Goodell has repeatedly changed the rules - or as Antonio Cromartie put it, made them up as he goes.  Often cited in media accounts was Article 46 of the CBA, except Goodell couldn't make it stick in his past punishments and failed to make it work against Brady  On Brady, Goodell made an issue of "non-cooperation" and treated it as though it were part of the Collective Bargaining Agreement - even though in fact it "didn't exist in the most current version of the CBA....(It was) introduced in the commissioner's panicky do-over rewriting of the league's personal conduct policy, released in December 2014."

Sally Jenkins noted that what makes Goodell's rulings so entertaining "is because he always doubles back."   When Ray Rice's initial suspension raised a media uproar - even though TMZ's infamous elevator video verified Rice's testimony to everyone - Goodell played CYA and smeared Rice to be a liar - and of course lost in court because of it.   Tom Brady's cellphone wasn't important until Goodell once again needed something to cover his ass.


Goodell is a liar on a continuing and colossal scale - Goodell lied to the Patriots - through David Gardi's January 19 letter, though Dean Blandino denials of his knowledge of the ordeal, and we suspect also directly to Robert Kraft during the May 2015 team owner meetings that saw Kraft accept Goodell's malicious punishments; when Goodell stabbed the Patriots in the back it led to Kraft's now-famous training camp missive about how he shouldn't have trusted the league - and has lied about the Patriots.   He lied about Brady "destroying his cellphone" and hid the fact Brady acknowledged changing his cellphones - because it was not relevant to anything.  Goodell lied about footballs being tampered with and lied about the nature of Tom Brady's correspondence with ball attendant John Jazstremski (Ted Wells shared in the lie; the two refused to face that text messages they wanted to believe proved tampering was occurring were irrelevant to the truth - and as Dan Wetzel shows, this belief is contradicted by Goodell's own ruling and the Wells Report). Goodell's side also admitted to Judge Richard Berman the league never had any actual evidence against Brady, showcasing Goodell's shaky grasp of truth, especially when Judge Berman showed how Goodell's "generally aware" indictment of Brady was in essence a sham.   In Spygate he lied about what the rulebook allows regarding sideline videotaping (and as noted above the league's memos falsified what the rulebook said).   He lied about the New Orleans Saints players in "Bountygate."   He lied about Ben Roethlisberger's rape accusation, which got him a four-game suspension in 2010 and was publicized by Sports Illustrated in a lengthy piece I suspect it regrets ever publishing.   There is also reason to believe Goodell is the source of the phony PSI story Chris Mortensen wrote after the AFC Championship Game - which would make him more of a liar in that he himself is the instigator of a smear campaign.

Bizarrely adding to the lie is Mortensen himself stood by the story on an August 27, 2015 interview on an Arizona radio show with Cardinals color analyst Ron Wolfley; Mortensen then added the whopper that the Krafts apologized to him, a claim immediately refuted first by the Dennis & Callahan Show on WEEI then by Jonathan Kraft himself before the Panthers preseason game; adding to the disinformation angle from the league, Mike Florio told WEEI that the league stonewalled his efforts to verify Mortensen's story and that it was part of an effort he called "a prosecution against the Patriots."

That prosecution took a lower turn at the end of October when the league shook down several Patriots employees while examining the visitors locker room for transmitting devices, an old hack accusation made against the Patriots with this specific one made by the Jets that has never been credible (opponent team security controls visitor locker rooms) and which turned up nothing but which raises the question of just how far the NFL will go in its prosecution against the Patriots.

Wetzel notes that players and teams need to be scared because the league has proven it cannot be trusted on anything regarding its conduct.   That the league office has been exposed as a liar engaged in a massive smear campaign against its best team - punishment of success on a vulgar scale - showcases that Roger Goodell must be fired.

ESPN Continues The Smear Of The Patriots

ESPN and also Sports Illustrated released pieces today rehashing long-discredited accusations of cheating by the New England Patriots, this in the wake of Roger Goodell's complete discrediting at the hands of Judge Richard Berman.   Goodel's discrediting by Berman showed how unfit for his office he is for it showcased his megalomania and complete ignorance of the game over which this ex-PR flack for the league office presides.

The ESPN and SI pieces rehash the mythology of cheating allegations made against the Patriots - that the Patriots stole playsheets and rigged transmitters in opponent locker rooms etc. - never mind that the security details of visiting teams control those areas, not the Patriots, and that Spygate was not about any violation of NFL rules, it was about the dishonesty and ignorance of Roger Goodell. It is noteworthy that the only real source for ESPN's story (it cites unnamed sources - and I will call out ESPN that these unnamed sources were made up by the writers) is long-discredited former assistant Matt Walsh, who was fired by the Patriots and was exposed as not credible by the league when it turned to him for what it thought would be a smoking gun of Patriots cheating - and merely got more sideline videotapes.   Walsh does not give information in good faith.

The piece's conclusion rehashes the excuses about the Brady verdict - "It didn't matter that Berman only ruled on whether the league had followed the Collective Bargaining Agreement, not on Brady's guilt or innocence."   False - Berman got the league to admit it never had any evidence against the Patriots - all it had were inferences from text messages, inferences that were never relevant to anything.  In short Berman proved Brady (and by extension the Patriots) were innocent.  "It didn't matter that the Patriots had accepted the league's punishment in May."   Again false - Goodell lied to Bob Kraft in May (and lied to and about Tom Brady from the beginning) and it showed in Kraft's training camp presser where he admitted being wrong in trusting the league.   The reason for the lying stems from Goodell's fundamental dishonesty, shown ironically in an overlooked angle - the effort to pry away trade secrets.

The ESPN piece has earned more notoriety for questions about a 2008 statement from ex-Rams coach Mike Martz.   Among the allegations made against the Patriots is they were able to key on Rams back Marshall Faulk in the Superbowl XXXVI win.  What the piece ignores is the real reason the Patriots are winners - the Rams were about trying to beat toughness, thoroughness, and situational football with athleticism and talent - and it failed. The reality is the Rams thought they were innovative and creative and they were not; they relied on athleticism, not smart play; if anything the Rams may have been tipping their own plays the way they leaned on Marshall Faulk. What Belichick did was expose that football is not about athleticism - and also that Tom Brady is the superior quarterback.


The simple fact is there never was any cheating by the Patriots.    The facts have long proven this.   The league needs to face that other teams need to define their game up, stop dumbing it down and stop punishing success. 

A Reminder About John Tomase

ESPN a week or so back had to apologize for an on-air assertion that the Patriots were caught illegally videotaping the St. Louis Rams walkthrough before Superbowl XXXVI.   That this assertion is still being made showcases the dishonesty of discussion about the Patriots.   One needs a reminder about the falsity of the story, made up by former Boston Herald writer John Tomase.

Brady Wins Appeal

The transcript of Judge Richard Berman's vacation of the NFL's suspension of Tom Brady.

Dan Wetzel On Roger Goodell As Liar

NOTE - The following was initially published on August 5 -

Roger Goodell has emerged as a liar on a massive scale and Dan Wetzel of Yahoo Sports has become one one of the two strongest examiners of Goodell's dishonesty (Sally Jenkins is the other) as he examines how the Tom Brady transcript showcases the commissioner's dishonesty at work.  

FOLLOW-UP August 19: Wetzel also skewers the league after it got debunked by Judge Richard Berman.

Brady Appeal Transcript

The transcript of the Tom Brady appeal to Roger Goodell.

NFL Punishing Success And Promoting Parity Still

Originally published May 7, this piece has been updated on June 12, on June 19, and again on July 29:

The new Ted Wells report on "Deflategate" is out and as with his hit job in favor of Jonathan Martin, the more one reads it the less credible it gets.   The first response came from Brady's agent Don Yee, and initial reaction suggests Brady will not accept whatever punishment Roger Goodell may hand down.

Given Roger Goodell and Ted Wells' history, he shouldn't.

The Wells report's conclusion uses the term "more probable than not," lawyerspeak for tacit admission that the case he was trying to make is not supported by evidence.   This is in keeping with Wells' approach to his attack on Richie Incognito at the behest of Jonathan Martin, further illustrated by Wells' disregard of what referee Walt Anderson said about how the gauge he used for measuring football PSI showed no evidence of tampering.   Yee notes Wells all but ignored Brady's testimony to him, which was an issue earlier in the investigation where there was media speculation about whether investigators even spoke with Brady.  There is also the angle where the league ostensibly is angry because Brady didn't turn over his cellphone to investigators - something Stephen Gostkowski also did, and which the league had no right to ask them to do to begin with. 

And the premise of the investigation - illegal tampering with footballs during a game, this despite the physical impossibility of such (a fact nowhere credibly disputed in the Wells report), to go with the forgotten January 2007 NFL rule change that allows quarterbacks to customize their footballs - is slipshod to start with.   The only real evidence the piece has is text messaging between two ball attendants; nowhere does the piece show any rule was broken by anyone, and it basically takes ordinary football-customizing - universal in the game - and presents it as a conspiracy.


It's been in keeping with Roger Goodell's maliciously ignorant approach to the game over which he lords (further reflected in a grossly inaccurate letter from NFL VP David Gardi to the Patriots on January 19).   Spygate happened because Bill Belichick showed up Goodell on what his own rulebook says, and Goodell reacted as a thin-skinned bully fearing for his legitimacy to hold his job as commissioner would do - he reacted violently and got his pound of flesh.   He reacted this way again against the New Orleans Saints in Bountygate, treating a legitimate player practice - side bets for clean hits - as an assassination program, in the process ignoring more questionable hits at that time by the Tennessee Titans, which at least earned some public protest as opposed to the wholly manufactured crisis hitting the Saints.   Here Saints players fought back - and won; even so Goodell got a pound of flesh by smearing and suspending coach Sean Payton. 

That the entire controversy is about punishing success and promoting parity - as Spygate was - shows in that the report not only shows Goodell's never-ending insincerity and amateurism, it is basically a gift to the Indianapolis Colts, who made the first protest and have reacted as losers do - self-servingly moralizing about a team they can't beat, and basically haven't since the 1970 merger. New England's history with the Colts has been wholly one-sided since the Colts moved to Indianapolis, and it's been best illustrated whenever Patriot-Colt playoff meetings sandwich between meetings with tougher opponents - 2003 famously saw co-MVPs Steve McNair's Titans and Peyton Manning's Colts come to Foxboro for the playoffs after rip-roaring regular-season games; McNair played like an MVP coming up a dropped Drew Bennett catch short, while Manning played like Ryan Leaf and got embarrassed. 2014 then saw it again as John Harbaugh's Baltimore Ravens fought it out and lost 35-31, while the Colts were summarily dismissed 45-7.

The Wells report's credibility started deteriorating as soon as it admitted Bill Belichick and Bob Kraft were not guilty of anything - that should have set skepticism going right away to what it did conclude.   But it's about punishing success - other teams don't want to define success up, as the Patriots have done.   They want to define it down and use Goodell and Wells as their hatchet men.



POSTSCRIPT: The league handed down a four-game suspension for Brady, and fined the Patriots $1 million and two draft picks, this despite officially exonerating the team and coach Bill Belichick.  Troy Vincent, the NFL's executive VP, said in his official letter, that Brady did not cooperate with investigators, a fact already refuted by writer Jerry Thornton.   There is also the issue of NFL Officiating VP Dean Blandino, who lied about his knowledge of the scandal.

AEI - which debunked the Bountygate smear against the Saints - has provided a lengthy analysis supporting Brady. Sally Jenkins in May first refuted the league's argument about Brady's cellphone - which further discredits Goodell's unctuous verbiage about Brady "destroying" his phone and then shows how the AEI analysis further paints Roger Goodell to be a liar. Further proving the league to be frauds is what Ted Wells told Brady about his cellphone - "Keep the phone...you give me documents that are responsive to this investigation." In short Goodell's position on Brady's cellphone is a crock and as such the NFLPA has appealed Brady's suspension.

NFL Top 10: Brady-Manning Games

The 2015 AFC playoffs are almost here and we may yet again see Tom Brady and Peyton Manning square off.   Given how much energy this rivalry has generated it ranks as something the league really has never seen before - a rivalry driven exclusively by the showdown of the two quarterbacks.   Team rivalries and coaching rivalries have been many a chapter in NFL history but this rivalry may top them all.   

In the format of NFL NETWORK'S series NFL Top 10, we look back at the top ten games of the Brady-Manning rivalry -


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#10: THE 2001 DEBUT - Tom Brady had been a low-round draft pick who'd risen up the New England Patriots depth chart almost entirely unnoticed; in Week 3 of 2001 he took over as starter after the near-fatal chest injury absorbed by Drew Bledsoe.   The Indianapolis Colts were division rivals of the Patriots and Peyton Manning was in his fourth season; he had already won 28 games and made two ill-fated playoff trips; Manning's Colts had already crushed the New York Jets and Buffalo by a combined score of 87-50 entering this game.

It didn't matter.   Bryan Cox's savage hit on receiver Jerome Pathon surged throughout the Colts lineup and suddenly they were playing scared.   Otis Smith and Ty Law ran back Manning interceptions for touchdowns; trailing 23-7 the floor collapsed on the Colts in the fourth quarter as the Patriots nailed down 21 points for the ultimate 44-13 win.  Brady put up 168 passing yards in a modest start while five Patriots players combined for 177 rushing yards. 

A month later at the RCA Dome Brady unleashed a more aggressive quarterbacking attack; he threw three touchdowns while receiver David Patten threw a 60-yard bomb, caught a 91-score, and ran in a touchdown as the Patriots absorbed nearly 500 Indianapolis yards to win 38-17.   Peyton Manning managed only one touchdown as Colts GM Bill Polian was overheard in the press box demanding his players break bones of Patriots players.

It was just the beginning.


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#9: THE GOALLINE STAND, 2003 -  Entering Week 13 of the 2003 season the Colts had become a superpower in the race for the playoffs after exploding to a history-making comeback win over the Tampa Bay Bucs in Week 5; the Patriots were also in the race after a slugfest of a win over the Tennessee Titans in Week 5 (the Titans for their part were neck-and-neck with both at 9-2) and at the RCA Dome at the end of November the Patriots and Colts met for the first time since divisional realignment put the Colts into the now-second-year AFC South.  

It began as another Patriots rout; Tom Brady led three drives putting up 17 points.   The Colts scored 10 points before Bethel Johnson ran back a 92-yard kick at the end of the first half.   The game then changed after Brady led another touchdown drive for a 31-10 lead; two interceptions and three Manning touchdowns put the game 31-31; another monster Johnson kick return led to a Brady touchdown to Deion Branch; a Kevin Faulk fumble led to a Colts field goal, then in the final minutes a bad shank of a punt by Ken Walter put the ball around the 50 and Manning whipped the Colts to the Patriots 2, but there two runs and a forlorn toss led to a 4th and 1 run by Edgerrin James blown up for a loss of two yards and a 38-34 Patriots win.   Willie McGinest played a key role; "I saw (Manning) tap his butt" thus signalling a run play he helped blow up.  

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#8: VANDERJAGT'S GAFFE, 2004
- The NFL inaugurated Thursday Night Football in 2004 by scheduling the Colts at Foxboro in Week 1.   Manning led the Colts to a 17-13 halftime lead, but then Brady erupted to put the Patriots up 27-17; a late Colts touchdown was followed by a final drive, but on 3rd down McGinest sacked Manning, setting up a 48-yard field goal try by Mike Vanderjagt, who hadn't missed in over 40 consecutive tries and taunted the Patriots sideline by rubbing his fingers in a "money" gesture - except he wasn't money, shanking the kick for the 27-24 Patriots win.


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#7: THE PLAYOFFS, 2003 AND 2004 - The Colts won the AFC South title in 2003 and 2004 and faced the Patriots in snowy Foxboro both times.   In 2003 the Patriots edged the Titans 17-14 as Steve McNair, co-MVP with Manning that year, lived up to being MVP in a taut game where he barely came short on a pass to Drew Bennett.   Manning meanwhile had exploded to his first two playoff wins, but in the AFC Championship Game he was not in McNair's playoff class as he was intercepted four times.   The Patriots for their part didn't play particularly well, forced into five Adam Vinatieri field goals and eventually grinding out a 24-14 win and path to Superbowl XXXVIII against the upstart Carolina Panthers.

In 2004 Manning was back, but this time the Patriots unleashed a powerful run game led by Corey Dillon, the former Bengal.   Dillon and Kevin Faulk combined for 200 rushing yards and ate up so much clock it gave Manning indigestion; his endzone interception on the final play capped off a hideous playoff failure, 20-3, as Brady was on his way to another Superbowl.  



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#6: PEYTON'S BREAKTHROUGH, 2005 - 2005 was mainly a forgettable season for the Patriots as they limped into November 7's Monday Night Football match at 4-3 with the Colts at 7-0.   Brady managed three touchdowns but Manning was unstoppable rolling to 40 points and his first win over the Patriots since 2000, and first ever win at Foxboro.   This win signalled a permanent change in the rivalry, as Manning would never again be New England's patsy.


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#5: THE BATTLE OF UNBEATENS, 2007
-  Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth, Wes Welker, and Adalius Thomas were the key free agent pickups as the Patriots made the most determined run to a Superbowl ever seen, exploding to put up over 34 points per game.  The Patriots were 8-0 and the Colts 7-0 as they entered November at the RCA Dome.   The game became one of the highest-rated broadcasts in CBS history as Randy Moss caught a short touchdown but the Colts clawed to a 20-10 lead in the fourth quarter.   Down by two scores, Brady finally got his offense going on a 60-yard bomb to Moss to the Colts 3, and a third-down touchdown to Welker.   After forcing a Colts punt the Patriots raced to the go-ahead touchdown, on a pass to Moss, a 40-yard strike to Stallworth, and the touchdown to Kevin Faulk.   Manning was then strip-sacked by former RCA Dome popcorn vendor Roosevelt Colvin, a longtime nemesis of Manning from his Chicago Bears days.   Brady converted the needed first down and the Patriots had broken the Colts' unbeaten streak, 24-20.


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#4: FOURTH AND TWO, 2009
- The Colts were unbeaten on November 15, 2009 when they hosted the Patriots, and the game started as a Patriots runaway as Brady and Manning combined for four touchdowns and a 24-14 Patriots lead; a goalline fumble by embattled running back Laurence Maroney wiped out a third-quarter Patriots touchdown, and Moss' catch put the Pats up 31-14 entering the fourth quarter.   But Manning connected with Pierre Garcon and in the final three minutes the Patriots led 34-28 but were pinned at their own 28 needing two more yards; Bill Belichick went for the fourth down conversion and a pass to Kevin Faulk appeared to break the first down plane but was ruled short by referee Scott Green.   When Manning tossed the winning touchdown in the final seconds the media storm against Belichick was enormous like the league hadn't seen since 1995's fourth down failure by the Cowboys against the Eagles.  


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#3: MANNING'S INDIANAPOLIS SWAN SONG, 2010
- In 2010 the Colts traveled to Foxboro for the first time since 2006 and were 6-3 with the Patriots 7-2.   The Patriots had changed their offense with Randy Moss traded after Week 4 and Deion Branch returned after four seasons in Seattle; they had also drafted two boffo tight ends in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.   The game on November 21 began with the pattern that had developed from 2003 - once again the Patriots raced to a big lead, taking a 31-14 lead in the fourth quarter.   And once again Manning roared back, this time with two touchdowns to Blair White in the fourth.   Once again the Patriots couldn't put Manning away and Peyton had the ball in the final minutes driving remorselessly.

But this time a pass to the Patriots 6-yard line was intercepted by James Sanders, and the Patriots won 31-28.   The game began a three-game losing streak for the Colts, and amid a 38-35 overtime loss to the Cowboys radioman Bob Lamey was heard to blast Peyton's declining play.   Following a wildcard round bow-out to the NY Jets, neck surgery for Manning wound up ending his career at the Colts.  


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BEST OF THE REST: - After Manning left the Colts, Tom Brady faced heralded youngster Andrew Luck in 2012 and again in the 2013 playoffs; the results were disturbingly reminiscent of days of yore for the Colts; in 2012 two interceptions were turned into Patriots touchdowns and New England won 59-24.   In the 2013 playoffs LeGarrette Blount led an unprecedented Patriots rushing attack while Luck was intercepted four times in a 43-22 Patriots win.

Before Manning faced Brady, he squared off against Drew Bledsoe for three seasons.   In September 1999 at Foxboro Manning exploded to three touchdowns and an Edgerrin James rushing score, but Bledsoe erased Manning's 28-7 lead on three unanswered touchdowns (including the final two career scoring catches for tight end Ben Coates).   James' late fumble set up the winning field goal by Adam Vinatieri and the 31-28 Patriots win.  

Blowing a 21-point lead in Foxboro was a harbinger of another Manning disaster fourteen years later.......

#2: BRADY'S HISTORY-MAKING COMEBACK, 2013
- Manning was signed by the Denver Broncos in 2012 and led Denver to a 13-3 season.   In 2013 on Sunday Night Football the Patriots hosted the Broncos a year after defeating Manning 31-21 and now fresh off a controversial loss to the Carolina Panthers.   The first half was a disaster for the Patriots, as three fumbles and a failed fourth-down attempt led to a Von Miller touchdown, a Manning score, and a 24-0 Broncos lead.  

But facing cold winds Tom Brady put on a history-making performance, exploding to three touchdowns, a fourth touchdown drive, and a Stephen Gostkowski field goal, all aided as the Patriots defense bullied the Broncos into three fumbles and a Manning interception.   The Patriots led 31-24 before a late Manning touchdown tied the game.  In overtime (a first for the rivalry) the Patriots elected to defend the endzone where the winds were blowing toward the Broncos instead of take the initial possession, a decision that puzzled observors, but after an exchange of three punts the Patriots at the very least didn't look foolish; instead on their second punt former Patriot Wes Welker hesitated on the kick and the ball bounced off a teammate and was grabbed by the Patriots at the Broncos 12-yard line.   The Broncos called two timeouts and the two-minute warning for overtime passed before Gostkowski drilled the winning field goal, 34-31.   It was the largest comeback win in Patriots history, surpassing 1984's comeback win over the Seahawks down 23-0 to win 38-23.   It also cemented Brady's repuation as a superior cold-weather quarterback.  


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BEST OF THE REST: In 2014 Manning and Brady met for the sixteenth time and the Patriots authored their most lopsided win over Manning (43-21) since 2001. Brady threw for 333 yards and four touchdowns while Manning was intercepted twice and stopped on fourth down four times, three of them in the fourth quarter. 


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The Number One Brady-Manning Game Of All - THE 2006 AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - It will almost certainly be cited as the greatest by all retrospectives on their careers.   The showdown for Superbowl XLI was a shocker that still permeates both New England and Indianapolis.   The Colts had shot down the Chiefs and Ravens while the Patriots upended the Jets and Chargers for this meeting at the RCA Dome, and the Patriots once again raced to a big lead; when Asante Samuel intercepted Manning and scored, the Patriots led 21-3, but Manning exploded the Colts to tie the game.   After swapping touchdowns and field goals the Patriots led 34-31 but needing a goalline stand in the final minute, they didn't get it; after Joseph Addai's touchdown Brady was intercepted and the Colts had won 38-34, on their way to only the second Superbowl win in their history and first as an Indianapolis team.  


2013's AFC Championship Game turned out to be another Manning triumph, his eighth in 22 career games against the Patriots, and fifth in fifteen meetings with Tom Brady.   It was anything but an end; Brady and the Patriots authored their worst rout of Manning since 2001 in 2014's 43-21 slaughter at Foxboro; the win was another on Brady's path to his history-making Superbowl XLIX triumph.   The rivalry thus awaits the 2015 season at Mile High.

Week Nine's Annual Epic

Here were go again.   As we approach Brady Manning number sixteen, we look at this week's other games as well -


Panthers over Saints - Last week's New Orleans win was a needed win for the beleaguered Saints, but this week they go on the road to a more-desperate Panthers team that is still smarting to a bitter loss to the Seahawks.


Browns over Buccaneers - There seems no way the Bucs can seize any kind of momentum this season as they travel to a Browns team that has a lot of momentum going for it.


Bengals over Jaguars - The Bengals got back on track by sweeping the Ravens and now get a Jaguars team that's shown some fight but isn't in anyone's league.


Cardinals over Cowboys - The illusion of the almighty Cowboys got stomped, and a former NFC East opponent comes in with a bearing on the conference's #1 seed.


Eagles over Texans - The Texans have been playing better this year but face an Eagles squad smarting from a tough loss.


Chiefs over NY Jets - The Chiefs are in better shape that I thought they'd be at this point of the season and the Jets are in even worse shape than anyone could have imagined.


Chargers over Dolphins
- Miami has shown real improvement this year, but San Diego saw one get away from them and want to get back into the race.


Redskins over Vikings - Minnesota pulled off a shocker last week, but Washington's shocker carries more meaning entering this contest.


49ers over Rams - This is no lay-up pick, for the Niners have real internal issues and the Rams are starting to pick up some fight.

Patriots over Broncos - Amid all the varied analyses, one angle overlooked is that Denver has struggled to close out games - they outlasted Indianapolis, barely escaped Kansas City, barely escaped a very bad Jets squad, and even in scoring 35 against San Diego never looked in complete control of that game.   Moreover their vaunted defensive improvement has been a mere four points per game from 2013.  Meanwhile the Patriots are surging in scoring and in stopping opposing offenses - of 177 points allowed, 74 came in two games.   The issues of O-line and receivers have been rectified and the Patriots' revamped O-line has taken over the line of scrimmage.   The Patriots run defense has been bad (over 1,000 yards, 4.6 yards per carry allowed), but Denver has allowed more touchdowns on the ground (five) than the Patriots (four).   The Broncos on the ground have not been better either - 710 rushing yards to 845 for the Patriots.  


Seahawks over Raiders - The Seahawks enjoy for themselves the closest thing to a second bye week - a free shooting match against the hapless Raiders.


Ravens over Steelers
- The Steelers showcased a level of firepower we can't remember them ever showing before in the win over Indianapolis.   The Ravens, though, can match that firepower and need this win to keep pace in an increasingly torrid AFC North race.


Colts over NY Giants - The Colts come in smarting from the loss in Pittsburgh and get a mediocre Giants team to turn it around against.


We thus await the annual Brady Manning slugfest.

Why The Belichick Critics Are Wrong

The 41-14 Patriots loss to the Chiefs has set off an insane campaign of criticism of coach/GM Bill Belichick led by ESPN analysts Steve Young, Trent Dilfer, and Tedy Bruschi and echoed throughout talk radio.   It is an avalanche not seen since the absurd recent smear campaign against Roger Goodell.

The Patriots critics, though, are wrong.


1 - The myth is pushed that the Patriots should not have traded guard Logan Mankins, because he ostensibly would help stabilize a struggling offensive line right now.  The problem is Mankins is one of the most overrated linemen in the league, shown by the Patriots' 10-1 record without him in the 2010-12 period, the eleven sacks he allowed in 2013, and his mediocre play with the Bucs, whose line shows zero improvement with him.  

The Patriots line has begun playing better entering Week Five and will certainly improve down the road.


2 - Another myth is that Belichick did not provide weapons for Brady (an argument examined by Matt Chatham) The fact is that Brady has more than adequate receivers to throw to but he has not read the field properly or engaged other receivers into the offense - he has thrown to Julian Edelman far too often, and periodically by ignoring wide open alternatives such as James Develin.   He finally started engaging Brandon Lafell in the Kansas City game and Lafell produced as a result.  

Danny Amendola is singled out for criticism lately, with the added criticism that the Patriots should not have let go of Wes Welker.   The facts are Amendola in his time with the Patriots took over two game-winning drives (vs. Buffalo and Cleveland) where with Denver Welker is not thrown to when the game is on the line.   Amendola's skill set is not just better than Welker's - it is superior. 

The reality is Brady needs to do what he's done throughout his career - engage the other receivers into the offense and make it work.  Amendola, Tim Wright, Lafell, James Develin, etc. all need Brady to work with them and make them part of the offense.


3 - Belichick is attacked for his roster construction philosophy, yet the criticism is refuted by the sustained success of Belichick's program - a claim that cannot be made of the more slapdash and inconsistent efforts of the Green Bay Packers, the NY Giants, or even the New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens, programs more consistently strong than others.   Roster construction must never fall in love with Names, else they end up like the Colts in 2011 or the Ravens in 2013 - or such perennial also-rans as the NY Jets and the Oakland Raiders.


4 - The lack of Superbowl success since 2004 testifies to the old Buffalo Bills talking point - it really is that hard to win Superbowls.   The Pittsburgh Steelers won two since then and have now all but fallen off the NFL map.   The Colts, NY Giants, Saints, Packers, and Ravens have all won since then and have seen heavy turmoil in their rosters.   Time awaits how the Seahawks handle success.   The Patriots program keeps them in contention without having to blow anything up.

The Belichick era revolutionized NFL championship construction, and the present struggles are no sign of any failure of the program that cannot be corrected.



UPDATE: - Also worth addressing is the related criticism of offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and his playcalling, for the recent firing of former OC Charlie Weis from the Kansas Jayhawks has led to fan demand that McDaniels be fired and replaced by Weis.   Once again reality gets in the way of fan frustration.   McDaniels' playcalling in 2006-8 and 2012-13 was exemplary and more innovative than that of Weis.   Weis is best known for trick plays his own players knew were stupid ("I guess Charlie's gone crazy again," Brady said before a trick play in New England's October 2001 victory at Indianapolis) and which backfired to a disturbing extent (a David Patten interception against the NY Jets in 2003 and an awful turnover at Arizona in 2004 that nearly got Deion Branch smashed out of the season stand out there).  Weis also was ready to take the ball out of Brady's hand and play for overtime in Superbowl XXXVI in the final minute.  

Weis' coaching career has been defined by incompetence and full-of-himself bluster at every stop - Notre Dame, the Chiefs (where his playcalling was taken away during a playoff game), the Florida Gators, and the Jayhawks.   Nowhere did Weis display anything close to coaching competence.

What it shows is the Patriots won in spite of him, not because he was anything. 

It's The Quarterback, Not The Defense

NOTE: Originally authored in April 2014, this piece has been updated in March 2015 and several times since:


As the NFL off-season drones on, there is a curious debate, and I've noticed in several forums it's taken a disturbing hold - that despite one of the all-time worst performances ever seen in a Superbowl - or any other playoff game for that matter - Peyton Manning is still somehow a superior quarterback to Russell Wilson, because "anyone can average fifteen points scored per game" (an ironic assertion given the 2015 Denver Broncos).   It ostensibly was the Seahawks defense that was the reason for the Superbowl success.

The critics of Wilson base this on the disparity of volume stats between the two quarterbacks, and the argument has been expanded to push the long-standing myth "defense wins championships."

By now people who watch football should know better.


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The Seahawks defense was ostensibly bad in Pete Carroll's first year there, 2010.   25th in points allowed with nearly 6,000 yards allowed, the 2010 Seahawks won an anemic NFC West at 7-9, then in the playoffs did something crazy - they defeated the defending Superbowl champions (the Saints) 41-36 before falling to the far-inferior Bears 35-24.   For 2011 the Seahawks defense stormed to 7th in fewest points allowed - yet again managed just 7-9 and didn't make the playoffs.  

2012 is when Carroll's Seahawks storm really got going, and while people will point to the Seahawks storming to first in fewest points allowed for two straight seasons, the real key was the Seahawks changed quarterbacks - from the erratic Tavaris Jackson to the unsung rookie Russell Wilson - and in the process they dumped their big-name free agent signing, Matt Flynn.   Wilson hit a 100 passer rating for the season, threw 26 touchdowns and just ten INTs, and even rushed for 489 yards and four touchdowns.   He also erased a 27-7 gap at Atlanta in the playoffs. 

Saying Wilson's defense is what won for the Seahawks is mind-bogglingly stupid on its face, because Tavaris Jackson had basically that same defense, as did the free agent Flynn; the difference was Wilson made plays; Jackson didn't, and Flynn played his way out of Seattle.    It becomes even more idiotic considering Russell Wilson saw his defense blow a ten-point lead in the second half of Superbowl XLIX and he had to average a shocking TEN yards per pass to come to the doorstep of winning it.

A further irony - Matt Flynn in 2013 wound up back in Green Bay as Aaron Rodgers' backup, but had to start several games that year, saddled with a defense that finished 24th in points allowed.   He nonetheless erased a 23-7 gap to the Vikings for a 26-26 tie, got smashed 40-10 by the Lions, then erased a 21-10 gap to beat the Falcons 22-21 and then erased a 26-3 to beat the Cowboys 37-36.  

With a worthless defense.

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And yet the myth of "defense wins championships" is a myth football people cling to with absurd tenacity. 

It's a myth pushed about such celebrated defenses as the 1985 Bears, the 2000 Ravens, and the 1970s Steelers - and yet each has a quarterback story that undermines the myth.

The 1985 Bears' genesis lay in the 1983 and 1984 seasons.   In Mike Ditka's second season as coach, with Buddy Ryan his defensive coordinator - and their now-famous internal feud - the 1983 Bears finished 8-8 and were 5th in points allowed.   Yet they dropped six of their first seven games before winning six of their last nine.   Second-year quarterback Jim McMahon started thirteen games with seven wins.   For 1984 the Bears stormed to 10-6 and allowed fewer than 3,900 yards of opposing offense; by any objective measure that was a better defense than the ensuing season's squad.   Yet they lost three of their last six games and used five different starting quarterbacks; Steve Fuller was made starter in the Bears' playoff run, defeating the defending NFC Champion Redskins before getting smoked 23-0 by Joe Montana's 49ers.

The 1985 Bears remain one of the most celebrated squads in football history, yet a fact gets overlooked about that 1985 team - the Bears offense exploded to 456 points scored, this after 1984's total of 325 and 1983's total of 311.   While turnovers by the defense had a role, the bottom line is scoring that many points can't be done without an offense that's working - and that can't be done without competent quarterbacking.   Yet the Bears offense is always overlooked because it was never as pretty as the defense.   McMahon was 11-0 as starter that year, while Steve Fuller started five games, winning four.


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The 2000 Ravens defense likewise saw its genesis from the previous season; under former Vikings offensive coordinator Brian Billick the unit reached sixth in points allowed in 1999.   Scott Mitchell had that defense and lost both his starts with the Ravens; Stoney Case won two straight, then lost two straight; after throwing three interceptions against Kansas City he was benched for Tony Banks.   In his first game Banks built a 10-3 lead against the Bills but couldn't hold it, despite the Ravens defense picking off Doug Flutie three times.   He then starting winning, crushing the Browns 41-9 and winning six of eight starts before falling in the season finale at New England.  

Banks started the first eight games of Baltimore's 2000 season - and was 5-3; the Ravens scored 16 points in their Week One win over the Steelers, but after putting up 39 over the Jaguars (the club's first ever victory in eleven tries - this dating to the Jaguars' debut 1995 season when the present-day Ravens were still the Cleveland Browns - over Jacksonville) and 37 on the Bengals, the Ravens offense under Banks broke six points scored only twice.

The Ravens then benched Banks and put in Trent Dilfer, considered a washout from erratic play with the Bucs.   After losing to the Steelers, Dilfer then did something overlooked in the romance about the Ravens defense - he started putting up points.   He won seven straight games and put up at least 24 in six of them.   He then put up 21 in Baltimore's first ever playoff win, 24 in the divisional round win over the hated Titans (the lone playoff game in Baltimore's run where they had to play from behind at any point), and sixteen in the AFC Championship Game over the Raiders,  and it wasn't about handing off to running back Jamal Lewis even though he had four rushing touchdowns that postseason - Dilfer delivered key touchdowns against the Broncos and the Raiders, allowing the Ravens defense to front-run.   

The Ravens defense were nothing but front-runners again after Dilfer delivered the opening touchdown against the overmatched New York Giants in Superbowl XXXV - where Dilfer played smart football in leading four scoring drives, Kerry Collins played Favreball, throwing four INTs - Duane Starks ran back one for a touchdown.

Dilfer was let go after that season and finished up in Seattle as Matt Hasselback's backup, while the famed Ravens defense went eight seasons with just one playoff win (over Miami in 2001) until Billick was fired and a quarterback who could sustain good play was drafted.   In the seven seasons following 2000 the Ravens went 60-49 with in essence the same defense that ostensibly was the reason for their 2000 success.   The difference between 2001-7 and 2000?   Trent Dilfer gave the Ravens competent quarterback play, especially in the postseason.   His successors (Chris Redman, Jeff Blake, Kyle Boller, Troy Smith) until Joe Flacco's arrival struggled to do so with his defense as his predecessors - Mitchell, Case, Jim Harbaugh, Vinny Testaverde - had struggled.

When the Ravens did get competent quarterbacking in that pre-Flacco period, they went to the playoffs.  While Elvis Grbac will not get benefit of the doubt in most analyses, the fact remains in his 2001 season with Baltimore he put up competent efforts for the Ravens to win, while Randall Cunningham closed out his career on a high note, winning both his starts in 2001 with the Ravens, beating Jacksonville and Pittsburgh.   The 2003 Ravens were 5-5 until Anthony Wright took over, authored the most famous comeback win in Ravens history, and won five of his six starts to win the AFC North title.    Steve McNair failed to finish his second season in Baltimore, but he won them 13 games in 2006 en route to another division title.


One further note should be made about the 2000 Ravens - though the statistics may say they were the best defense in the league, in reality they weren't - the defenses the football railbirds were talking about throughout that season was the Bucs and the Eagles, because they were taking on consistently better quarterbacks than what the Ravens faced and were "mauling" (Cris Collinsworth's description) their opponents.  


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The 1970s Steelers are another celebrated defense that gets the credit over the offense or the quarterback.   The Steel Curtain became a virtual official branch of the Pro Football Hall Of Fame, yet when the Steelers needed a defensive stand in their 1972 playoff game against the Raiders, the defense failed - it took a desperation heave by Bradshaw and the most controversial bounce in football history to pull off the most celebrated 13-7 game ever seen. 

Yet in 1973 the Steelers started changing quarterbacks - Joe Gilliam started once and lost 21-16 to the Browns; Terry Hanratty started four games with a 2-2 split.   Bradshaw came back for the playoffs and threw three picks against the Raiders.    And in 1974 it got worse - Gilliam started six games, winning four, yet also famously seeing a 35-35 tie with the Broncos and throwing two INTs in a shutout loss at home to the Raiders.   Terry Hanratty started against the Browns and won, but could no longer throw the ball, and finally Chuck Noll settled on Bradshaw as his starter - this for an offense that, unnoticed then and later, was sixth in scoring in the league.

Once Noll settled on Bradshaw, the Steelers started winning with more consistency, and continued to do so with Bradshaw.   Though he put up very sluggish numbers in the Superbowl IX win, it should be noted he still outquarterbacked Fran Tarkenton, who threw three picks in that game.   Bradshaw proved decisive in Pittsburgh's next three Superbowls, throwing the game-winning bomb in Superbowl X, then storming the Steelers to five touchdowns in Superbowl XIII - enough cushion for the defense that got shredded for 31 points by Roger Staubach's Cowboys - and finally overcoming three INTs to deliver the game-winning touchdown in Superbowl XIV against the Rams.  


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The Steelers went into a 1980s funk until Bill Cowher replaced Chuck Noll after 1991.   Under Cowher the Steel Curtain had a renaissance, and the Steelers became a playoff power again - yet despite appearing in Superbowl XXX they couldn't get over the hump.   Neil O'Donnell was signed by the Steelers in 1991, winning 39 of 61 starts but going 3-4 in the playoffs - his two ugly INTs to the inept Larry Brown in the Superbowl effectively ended his tenure there.

Yet the Steelers with Mike Tomczak and Kordell Stewart in the 1996-2001 period didn't get better - with "Slash" Stewart as 2001's full-time starter they went 13-3 and beat the Ravens in the divisional round of the playoffs - then the 2001 New England Patriots embarrassed the Steelers despite having to use two quarterbacks - and Tom Brady and Drew Bledsoe both outplayed Stewart.

Throughout this 1992-2003 period the Steelers defense was consistently top-ten in fewest points allowed, even when the Steelers failed to make the playoffs in the 1998-2000 period.   2002 was particularly instructive, for the Steelers defense was porous, allowing 21 points a game - Kordell Stewart finally flamed out and former Dan Reeves draft bust Tommy Maddox took over three games into the season, and the 0-2 Steelers promptly won five of their next seven games and authored a 34-34 tie with the Falcons for good measure; injury in a loss to the Titans sidelined Maddox for several games, but Maddox came back, finished up a 10-5-1 division title season, then stormed the Steelers to the stunning 36-33 comeback win over the upstart Cleveland Browns, before a bitter 34-31 overtime loss to the Titans followed.

For 2004 after a 6-10 season in 2003, the Steelers drafted Ben Roethlisberger to be Maddox's backup.  That role lasted two games; Roethlisberger took over in Week Three and started winning - and kept winning.   By season's end - with the same defense that suddenly couldn't win under Maddox - Roethlisberger had authored one of the most amazing rookie seasons ever seen, a Steelers club-record 15-1 season.   Though 2005 was rougher at 10-6 (this despite the defense being third in fewest points allowed that year) with injury forcing Maddox to start for several games, the Steelers made the playoffs and exploded to four straight playoff wins and the famed fifth Superbowl title.

The bottom line - the Steelers couldn't win with Joe Gilliam, Terry Hanratty, Mark Malone, or Bubby Brister - they got enough good play out of Neil O'Donnell, Kordell Stewart, Mike Tomczak, and Tommy Maddox to become a playoff contender again, but it was Terry Bradshaw and Ben Roethlisberger who ultimately were the reason the Steelers became champions.


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Perhaps the best illustration of the myth of defense winning championships remains the New England Patriots, whose defense under Bill Belichick has often been called among the greatest in history.    The reality, though, is opposite.   At the start of the 2001 season the defense was porous and had shown no ability to make clutch plays.   Then came the famous injury to Drew Bledsoe and Tom Brady's ascension to starter.   With that same defense, same offense, same everything that was outscored 33-20 in the first two games - and which throughout the season struggled to make third-down stops - Brady directed scoring drives; he led the Patriots to a stunning overtime comeback win over the San Diego Chargers; he led an offense that finished sixth in scoring; he erased a 13-3 fourth-quarter gap to win the infamous "Tuck Rule" playoff game; injury at Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship Game forced Bledsoe back onto the field and Drew shot down the Steelers despite a third-quarter rally; Brady then took over in the Superbowl, gave his defense a 17-3 lead in the fourth quarter - and saw that defense collapse to the resurgent Rams offense; Brady's answer was to author the first walkoff scoring drive in Superbowl history.

That so-called "elite" defense was abysmal in 2002 as the Patriots went 9-7 while in effect installing a new offense.   2003 the Patriots dubbed their defense The Homeland Security defense as it held opponents to a club-low 238 points allowed and 68 points allowed in Foxboro - and overlooked was its struggle against Steve McNair's Titans twice - getting gashed for 30 points in October while barely escaping via a McNair bomb bouncing off Drew Bennett's fingers in the divisional playoffs - the Dolphins at Miami, the always-troublesome Broncos, Peyton Manning's Colts at the RCA Dome, and finally the Superbowl against a Carolina Panthers team that may be the best team that didn't win a Superbowl.   Jake Delhomme and company speared the Patriots' vaunted defense and put up four touchdowns in the wildest Superbowl ever seen - and it was won by another scoring drive led by Brady.

It was more of the same in 2004 as the Patriots shot to another 14-2 season, crushed Indianapolis and Pittsburgh, then nearly blew a 10-point lead late in the Superbowl to an Eagles team in over its head with Donovan McNabb literally throwing up on the field then throwing a late interception to end the game - no endorsement of the Patriots' overrated defense this.  

Brady's next three trips to the Superbowl continued the pattern of the vaunted Patriots defense failing and needing to be rescued by Brady - except this time the collapses happened too late in the game for Brady to win.  It nearly happened again in Superbowl XLIX as Brady's Patriots fell behind Russell Wilson's Seahawks 24-14; Brady then speared the vaunted Pete Carroll defense for two late touchdowns.   Wilson then whipped the Seahawks to the 1-yard line; only there did a defensive play win the game after the Patriots defense was rescued yet again by Brady.



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Nowhere has Brady won via a defense worthy of being considered great.   And the quarterback he sought to emulate didn't win with a particularly great defense, either.   Joe Montana's 1981 breakthrough season with the 49ers was with a defense second in points allowed and plus-23 in turnover differential - yet he had to score 92 points - basically 31 a game - in the playoffs for the Niners to become champions.   His 1984 championship season was with the top defense in points allowed, though only plus-15 in turnover differential.  His 1988 championship was with a 10-6 team, a defense only eighth in points allowed and just plus-12 in turnover differential, and with the now-famous feud with Steve Young kicking into overdrive.  

Montana and Young's careers are defined not by their defenses, but by their performances, especially in clutch moments - the 1981 playoff win over the Cowboys, the bomb to Jerry Rice to beat the Giants in 1988, Young's touchdown run to beat the Vikings that same year, Montana's last-minute touchdown to win Superbowl XXIII, the comeback win at Philly in 1989, Montana's playoff comeback with Kansas City against the Oilers in 1993, Young's comeback at Detroit despite injury, the 1996 comeback win over the Bengals, the immortal touchdown to Terrell Owens to beat Green Bay in 1998.  


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Basically it comes down to the following -


When did the Steelers win with Joe Gilliam, Terry Hanratty, Mark Malone, or Bubby Brister?

When did the Ravens win with Vinny Testaverde, Jim Harbaugh, Scott Mitchell, Stoney Case, Tony Banks, Chris Redman, Jeff Blake, or Kyle Boller?

When did the 49ers win with Matt Cavanaugh, Steve DeBerg, Steve Bono, Tim Rattay, or Glenn Dorsey?

When did the Patriots win with Jim Plunkett, Cavanaugh, Mike Taliaferro, Joe Kapp, Tommy Hodson, Hugh Millen, or the immortal Michael Bishop?   Or, for that matter, with Tim Tebow?

When did the Rams' Greatest Show On Turf do anything with Tony Banks or Trent Green or Jamie Martin? 

When did the Cowboys win with Brandon Laufenberg, Steve Pelluer, Kevin Sweeney, Chad Hutchinson, Quincy Carter.............or Tony Romo? 

It's a myth that persists, as Lindy's Sports Pro Football 2014 Preview revives the hoary old argument how the top-scoring offense lost four of five Superbowls pitted against the top-scoring defense, and even notes the losing quarterbacks - Peyton Manning, Jim Kelly, Dan Marino, and Roger Staubach - completely ignoring that Staubach played the Steelers supremely tough BOTH times and they needed Terry Bradshaw to step up his game to win those games, and also ignoring that Marino, Kelly, and Manning were notoriously bad playoff or Superbowl quarterbacks - Marino and Manning are the two worst playoff quarterbacks of their generations and Kelly was in over his head once he reached the Superbowl.



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It's a hoary double assertion that defense wins championships and you have to establish the run, but by now knowledgeable football people should know better.   No defense ever won anything; no running game ever proved decisive - it's QUARTERBACKING that wins championships.


NOTE: further making this point is Kerry Byrne's dissection of the uselessness of ESPN's Quarter Back Rating statistic.

It's Brady, Not Manning

This post was initially published on January 15, 2014; it has been updated.


The debate over Tom Brady versus Peyton Manning has never really ended but it has intensified with the Broncos' 2013 AFC Championship win over Brady and the Patriots.   And with the passage of time I'm noticing more and more defenses of Manning as somehow the better quarterback.
The problem is the objective reality showcased by the Superbowl - Brady is the superior quarterback.


Let's look at the reasons why, here and below -


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HEAD TO HEAD RECORD - Brady is 10-5 against Manning entering 2014, and the way they've played in these matchups has showcased that Brady is the better quarterback.   Manning infamously has been absymal in bad-weather games where Brady has thrived.  These matchups have also showcased a larger weakness of Manning that has invariably gotten to him in his playoff career in general - indecision and panic.   It was surprising Manning didn't fall into that trap this most recent game.


PLAYOFF PERFORMANCE - Brady has eighteen playoff wins to Manning's eleven and Manning's twelve losses have showcased his inability to handle playoff football - he has consistently showcased indecision, panic, and lack of command of the offense -


1999 vs. Tennessee Titans - only 19 completions in 42 passes; fails to convert fourth-down attempt in final five minutes.

2002 @ NY Jets - two interceptions, limited to 137 yards.

2003-4 @ Patriots - combined five interceptions, just 17 points generated in two games.

2005 vs. Steelers - failure on fourth down in final minutes.

2007 vs. Chargers - two interceptions, two fourth-down failures in final three minutes.

2008 @ Chargers - up 17-14 fails twice on third-down attempts in final six minutes; Chargers tie game, win in overtime.

2009 Superbowl XLIV vs. New Orleans Saints - late interception-return touchdown; fails on fourth down at Saints 5 in final minute.

2012 vs. Baltimore Ravens - throws interception in overtime; Ravens win at start of second OT, 38-35.

Superbowl 48 vs. Seattle Seahawks - Two interceptions, another fourth-down failure, utterly incapable of establishing any offensive flow - in contrast Russell Wilson put up the drives that put up points and controlled the game.


What is striking is how overlooked is the angle of his clutch failures on third and fourth down in his playoff losses.   Also overlooked is the underrated key to football - favorability of the matchups.  Of Manning's eleven playoff wins, seven have come against cupcake (for Manning) matchups - Kansas City, Denver, Baltimore, and the Rex Grossman-led Chicago Bears; he has owned the Chiefs, the Ravens, and the Broncos, and it makes his overtime gag job against the Ravens in 2012 all the worse.  Even his playoff win over the Chargers showed him losing the turnover battle, while his previous two playoff games saw him throw three interceptions.



RELEVANCE TO THE ROSTER - A myth that has been gaining steam is that Manning has suffered because of poor defenses on his clubs.   Rodney Harrison has made that argument and it is a bizarre one.   The fact is Manning has had multiple first-round draft choices for teammates (Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark notably) and in 1998 inherited an offense already poised for becoming very good, with Marvin Harrison, Marcus Pollard, and Marshall Faulk before his trade to the Rams.   Manning was surrounded by top-round talent where Brady was put into a club undergoing a top-to-bottom changeover, and his career has been defined by near-constant turnover on the offense. 

This pattern was repeated when Manning joined the Broncos, a point made amid the increasingly bogus Larry Fitzgerald lobbying campaign by Boston-area media.


Reexamining his playoff failures above should disabuse the notion that Manning was hamstrung by an inferior supporting cast, and the concurrant myth should also be addressed - that Brady benefitted from a great defense.   It is a myth that was being pushed at the time, even though the actual games showed more often that Brady had to rescue the defense, from 2001 onward -

2001 vs. Chargers - defense fails to hold a lead; Patriots trail 26-16, Brady leads comeback win.

2001 vs. Colts - Brady gives defense 38 points to be able to front-run to a 38-17 win despite being shredded for 484 yards of Indianapolis offense.

2001 vs. Saints - Brady throws four touchdowns; defense front-runs to 34-17 win.

2001 vs. Raiders - Defense fails to prevent 13-3 Raiders lead in fourth quarter; Brady leads three scoring drives to win 16-13 in OT.

Superbowl XXXVI vs. Rams - Brady gives defense 17-3 lead; defense gashed for tying touchdowns in final minutes; Brady authors first walkoff scoring drive in Superbowl history.


Of course it's been ongoing; in 2003 Steve McNair's Titans hammered the Patriots defense for 30 points while Brady and the offense wound up winning in a game where the lead changed hands seven times; at Miami the Dolphins, tied 13-13, bullied their way through the defense to the Patriots 18 but the late field goal try was blocked; they blasted to the 18 in overtime and missed the FGA, before Brady finally won it on his 82-yard touchdown bomb; the defense got gashed and the Patriots trailed 26-23; Brady got the ball back and drove to the winning touchdown with 30 seconds to go; a Keystone Kops performance put the second-year Houston Texans up 20-13 before Brady nailed the tying touchdown, this before another Viantieri field goal with one minute left in overtime won it; the same Colts who'd put up 484 yards against the Patriots two years earlier shredded the Patriots for 34 points before a heroic goalline stand won it 38-34.


Come the playoffs, New England's 17-14 playoff win over Steve McNair's Titans came on a dropped Drew Bennett bomb from McNair that Bennett nearly caught despite being surrounded by Patriots defenders; one hesitates to give the Patriots defense as much credit as they've gotten.   Then came Manning and his patented playoff choke job against the same defense he'd destroyed earlier that year.   And two weeks later in Superbowl XXXVIII against the Carolina Panthers the Patriots vaunted defense was - again - utterly destroyed, this time by Jake Delhomme, and it was Brady who led the offense to the 32-29 win.


And it's continued, as shown in these examples -



2006 @ Chargers - Defense fails to prevent 21-13 Chargers lead; Brady throws tying touchdown, then leads winning FG drive with 49-yard bomb to Reche Caldwell; Patriots win 24-21.

Superbowl XLII vs. NY Giants - down 10-7 throws go-ahead touchdown with 2:42 to go; defense then collapses on the most infamous fluke pass play in football history.

2010 vs. Ravens - Defense fails to contain Ravens, Brady leads comeback from 20-10 gap to win in OT 23-20.

2011 vs. Dolphins and Bills - Defense falls behind 17-0 vs. Miami, Brady leads 27-24 comeback win; defense gashed for 21-0 first-quarter lead, Brady erupts to 49 unanswered points.

2011 vs. Ravens - defense gives up 16-13 lead; Brady leads go-ahead touchdown drive.

2012 at Bills - Defense unable to prevent Buffalo from racing to 21-7 lead in third quarter; Brady erupts by leading offense to outscore Buffalo 38-7 for the 52-28 win.


The blunt reality is Brady and the offense have been the reason for New England's success, while the playoff failures of Indianapolis and Denver rest on poor play by Manning.  



THE 2013 COMEBACK WIN - This is the game that forever defeats the notion of Peyton Manning as somehow the better quarterback, for it displayed everything showcasing otherwise - winds and bitter cold, with Brady elevating his game (his touchdowns came into the winds) and Manning's game regressing; Manning having the stronger supporting cast with Brady in the middle of another reconstruction of the offense; Manning unable to move the ball when the game's full outcome came onto the line.   Of course the Wes Welker gaffe on a late overtime Patriots punt was a key play and wound up finishing off that game,  but even with that it merely provided the finish touch to what the game showcased - given the chance to win in overtime, Manning couldn't move the ball.   Even with the first half explosion and a game-tying touchdown late, Manning was clearly weaker in a cold-weather game.  


SUPERBOWL PERFORMANCE - In two losses to the Giants Brady put the Patriots into the lead in the second half.   In his two Superbowl losses Manning blew a late lead then threw an interception and failed on fourth down, all against the Saints.   Against the Seahawks Manning was in over his head from the opening series and never got anything going.


For all the efforts to give Peyton the edge over Brady, they ultimately do not work.   Because Brady has succeeded in circumstances where Manning has not.  

The Marino Mythology Redux

The Cold Hard Football Facts site of Kerry Byrne has revolutionized football analysis in the decade-plus it has been active, and among its signature analyses is The Marino Mythology, a piece dissecting the defenses Miami Dolphins fans have used in response to Dan Marino's inability to win a Superbowl. It is especially relevant now because the excuses used for Marino are now being cited for Peyton Manning, who managed to win Superbowl50 and finished his career having lost thirteen of twenty-seven career playoff games - indeed, it is worth noting that Tom Brady by himself has  twenty-five playoff wins (five of them Superbowls) while Marino and Manning have twenty-two combined.

One of the Marino myths is that he was saddled with weak defenses - this isn't true, as Marino played with top-12 scoring defenses seven times (twice with #1 scoring defenses, 1983 and 1998).  It is worth noting because Tom Brady has been accused of having good defenses for his Superbowl runs, except the reality of his defenses was they were grossly overrated and consistently failed in big games -

The defense in 2001 could not stop the Raiders from surging to a ten-point fourth-quarter lead, and then Brady rescued it with three scoring drives for the 16-13 overtime win.

Given a 14-point lead against the Rams in the Superbowl, the Patriots defense disintegrated, and Brady rescued it with the first walkoff scoring drive in Superbowl history.

Against the Panthers in 2003 the Patriots defense was ripped to shreds as the Panthers erased deficits of 11 points and then seven points; once again Brady led the rescue.

In 2004 the defense gave up a late touchdown to the Eagles.

The Patriots defense infamously disintegrated twice against the NY Giants when given leads by Brady - the David Tyree miracle remains the ultimate black mark on the Patriots defense.

The Patriots defense was hammered by the Seahawks until Brady, down 24-14, led the first biggest comeback in Superbowl history - and even then the defense was speared to the one-yard line until the ultimate shocker of a play.

The defense was bullied for over thirty-five minutes against the Atlanta Falcons - and it was Brady leading the biggest comeback in Superbowl history.


The defense argument has also been cited with Peyton Manning, as his 2006 Superbowl was credited to a Colts defense getting hot in the playoffs while his 2015 title was credited to the Broncos defense.   The fact here is also opposite to the myth - Manning's first two Superbowl runs (2006 and 2009) came against matchups overwhelmingly in his favor - both times he faced the Baltimore Ravens, a team he utterly owned at that point in the middle of his nine-game winning streak against them; in 2006 he faced the Kansas City Chiefs, a team he's lost just once to in six career games, and after his stunning AFC Title win over the Patriots - in which his vaunted defense was shredded for 34 points - he faced the cupcake of the Rex Grossman Chicago Bears in the Superbowl; in 2009 he faced a semi-cupcake in the always-erratic New York Jets, a squad that has nonetheless beaten him in the playoffs twice.   His 2013 Superbowl run came against two perennially tough matchups in San Diego and New England; he somehow won both then failed completely in the Superbowl against a Seahawks team the Patriots shot down the next year.   His 2015 run - coming after he was benched and then inexplicably reinserted - came against a shaky Steelers team, then he barely escaped another Brady comeback, then faced a Panthers team that suddenly got scared of the fact of being in the Superbowl.   Manning played poorly, Cam Newton played scared, and the Broncos defense did nothing better than escape when it faced an opponent not intimidated by the moment.


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The other signature Marino myth is that he lacked an adequate running game.   Here also the myth is false, and it is worth expanding on for CHFF's original piece missed a key fact about Superbowl history - the number of Superbowl winners with inferior run games to what Marino had.  

Here are the Yards Per Carry run games of Superbowl winners  -


1966 Packers - 3.5 YPC
1967 Packers - 4.0
1968 NY Jets - 3.4
1969 Chiefs - 4.3
1970 Colts - 3.3
1971 Cowboys - 4.4
1972 Dolphins - 4.8
1973 Dolphins - 5.0
1974 Steelers - 4.4
1975 Steelers - 4.5
1976 Raiders - 4.1
1977 Cowboys - 4.2
1978 Steelers - 3.6
1979 Steelers - 4.6
1980 Raiders - 4.0
1981 49ers - 3.5
1982 Redskins - 3.6
1983 Raiders - 4.1
1984 49ers - 4.6
1985 Bears - 4.5
1986 NY Giants - 4.0
1987 Redskins - 4.2
1988 49ers - 4.8
1989 49ers - 4.0
1990 NY Giants - 3.8
1991 Redskins - 3.8
1992 Cowboys - 4.2
1993 Cowboys - 4.4
1994 49ers - 3.9
1995 Cowboys - 4.4
1996 Packers - 4.0
1997 Broncos - 4.6
1998 Broncos - 4.7
1999 Rams - 4.8
2000 Ravens - 4.3
2001 Patriots - 3.8
2002 Buccaneers - 3.8
2003 Patriots - 3.4
2004 Patriots -  4.1
2005 Steelers - 4.0
2006 Colts - 4.0
2007 NY Giants - 4.6
2008 Steelers - 3.7
2009 Saints - 4.5
2010 Packers - 3.8
2011 NY Giants - 3.5
2012 Ravens - 4.3
2013 Seahawks - 4.3
2014 Patriots - 3.9
2015 Broncos - 4.2
2016 Patriots - 3.9


Here are the Dolphins run games in YPC in Marino's career -

1983 - 3.8 YPC
1984 - 4.0
1985 - 3.9
1986 - 4.4
1987 - 4.1
1988 - 3.6
1989 - 3.3
1990 - 3.7
1991 - 3.6
1992 - 3.7
1993 - 3.5
1994 - 3.8
1995 - 3.6
1996 - 3.5
1997 - 3.1
1998 - 3.4
1999 - 3.3  


In all just eleven Superbowl champions had a better run game than what Marino had.

It is also worth noting how teams ostensibly with great ground games such as the Lombardi Packers and No-Name Defense-era Dolphins were superior passing teams rather than winning because they ran the ball well.   The bottom line here is that Marino had run games superior to multiple Superbowl champions for basically the whole of his 17-season career.    The argument that he lacked a run game is not only false, it is dishonest.

The counterargument I've heard from Marino defenders is that he didn't have "a 1,000-yard rusher, a stud running back like Barry Sanders or Emmitt Smith."   It doesn't matter.   Sanders never got to a Superbowl because, though he got some genuinely good seasons out of Scott Mitchell, overall it was quarterbacking that was the Sanders-era Lions' downfall.   Smith ostensibly made the Aikman-era Cowboys offense go, except much of his yardage came after Aikman's passing had put the Cowboys up over their opponent (not my words, those of NFL Films analyst Greg Cosell).  Smith needed Aikman more than Aikman needed Smith.

As for 1,000-yard rushers, the greatest rushing attacks in league history are the 1976 and 1978 New England Patriots, who combined for 6,122 yards on the ground - the 1976 team averaged FIVE yards per carry at 2,957 yards (higher than every Superbowl champion except the 1973 Dolphins who only tie the 1976 Pats at Five YPC) while the 1978 team's 3,165 yards (4.7 YPC)  remains the most in league history - and not once did they have a 1,000-yard rusher.


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Another Marino myth is that he had to carry the Dolphins - an assertion better suited to Tom Brady and Drew Brees than to Marino.    Marino inherited a Superbowl power and spent his career doing less with more - Marino ended up as a quarterback whose average season was 10-6 - the same as Steve McNair, who unlike Marino had to help bring the Oilers/Titans franchise to contention after the tumultuous 1995-98 move from Houston to Tennessee; he did that and made the Titans a playoff contender and made himself league co-MVP in 2003.   Further worth noting is that McNair brought the Titans to the doorstep of overtime in his one Superbowl, where Marino was outclassed from the opening gun in his.

This myth is also true of Peyton Manning, though Manning played a bigger role in resurrecting the Colts at the time of his drafting - the Colts between 1977's "Ghost To The Post" playoff loss to the Oakland Raiders and the off-season 1999 trade of Marshall Faulk to the Rams won just 107 games; they reached 141 wins in Manning's thirteen seasons there.  

Yet even here Manning had a better roster than his archenemy Tom Brady - Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Marcus Pollard, plus some quality running backs - and when he joined the Broncos he had Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas (of Tim Tebow vs. the Steelers fame) and then got Julius Thomas for the 2013 season.   Manning has not had to build rosters the way Tom Brady has, and the way Marino never did; it is noteworthy that Manning quit on several receivers, notably Pierre Garcon, who has become an effective weapon for the Washington Redskins.


Then there is the big-game quarterback myth.   Marino won only eight playoff games and just one of them on the road (1999 at Seattle) while Manning won fourteen of twenty-seven playoff games with  nine playoff runs in which he failed to win one game.    The game usually cited in Marino retrospectives is the Fake Spike Game against the NY Jets - a regular-season game against a team that finished 6-10.    

More relevant to Marino's career is the 51-45 overtime loss to the Jets in 1986 - up 45-38 in the fourth quarter - this after his defense kept forcing Jets turnovers - Marino only needed to convert one first down to win - and he didn't do it, a cutting illustration of Marino's career.   His 1995 games where he broke Fran Tarkenton's records for touchdowns, yardage, and completions were all losses - 27-24 and 36-28 to the Colts, 34-17 to the Patriots - and another fitting illustration of the illusions surrounding his career.

Also instructive is the play-by-play sheet of Marino's only Superbowl -


Dolphins drives in Superbowl XIX  -

No score - Marino drive ends in field goal - 3-0
SFO takes 7-3 lead - Marino drive, five straight completions, touchdown - 7-3
SFO takes 14-10 lead - Marino drive three plays and punt
SFO takes 21-10 lead - Marino drive, two incompletions and punt
SFO takes 28-10 lead - Marino drive ends in field goal - 28-13
SFO up 28-13 - SFO fumbles kickoff, Dolphins field goal, end of half - 28-16 halftime

SFO up 28-16 - Marino drive, sacked once, three plays, punt
SFO takes 31-16 lead - Marino drive, sacked twice, three plays, punt
SFO takes 38-16 lead - Marino drives to SFO 27, then intercepted
SFO up 38-16 - Marino drives to SFO 21, then intercepted
SFO up 38-16 - Marino drives to SFO 30, fumbles, recovers fumble, clock expires, end of game


Finally there is what the Dolphins did before they drafted Marino - they won 141 games, two Superbowls, and ten additional playoff games in the seventeen years before they drafted him.   Fifty-seven wins and a Superbowl berth came in the six seasons immediately before they drafted Marino; Marino won 60 games and just three playoff games in his first six seasons - and just 141 games total in his seventeen seasons.   The Dolphins then won 41 games in the four seasons after Marino retired where Marino won 45 games in his last five seasons in the league.


If anything Marino was rescued by the league's 1990 decision to add a third wildcard playoff team - of his eight playoff wins five of them came after the addition of a sixth playoff team, and only once (1992) in that span did he get out of the Divisional Round.


Marino's volume stats are his only real claim to be a Hall Of Famer - his inferior yards per throw, mediocre completion percentage, and subpar touchdown to interception ratio tag him as one of the more overrated quarterbacks in NFL history as well - and it is telling that Don Shula has admitted that Marino often changed playcalls so he could throw the ball more (while Jimmy Johnson was criticized for taking that away from Marino when he became Dolphins head coach) - a sign Shula should have given up on Marino well before he retired.