The NFL preview magazines are starting to come out, so with previews coming to a newsstand et al near you, my own take -
**********
ARIZONA CARDINALS - 10-6 last year with Carson Palmer showed this team is becoming a legitimate threat under Bruce Arians. How much of a threat they can become depends on Palmer, who looks to be starter for awhile as rookie QB Logan Thomas appears to be as raw as they get but with capability the Cards feel can be harnessed.
In the tough NFC West repeating as 10-6 isn't unrealistic.
*****
ATLANTA FALCONS - Team owner Arthur Blank said he was "bothered" that teammates did not rally to Matt Ryan's defense after a Kenny Vaccaro hit during a Falcons-Saints game in 2013. The hit, Blank said, showed the need for more toughness by the Falcons. But it might have also showed something else - that Ryan's teammates are tired of his act; when teammates show up their quarterback like that one gets the impression they've had it with him. Ryan has been a volume stats monster but once playoff time rolls around he's been abysmal, and the Falcons, still loaded with a capable team despite last season's failure, had better start developing a replacement for Ryan.
Right now I'm struggling to see the Falcons reach 8-8.
*****
BALTIMORE RAVENS - In effect blowing up the roster to pay Joe Flacco isn't the wisest way to develop a competitive team. The defense was surprisingly good last year - 12th in points allowed and plus-5 in turnover differential - but the Ravens were still -32 in points differential and the offense went from 10th to 25th in scoring. The Ravens were also in the off-season headlines for all the wrong reasons, much to John Harbaugh's consternation - and scuttlebutt had it that Harbaugh nearly lost his team during the 2012 Superbowl run and that some players who left after 2012 did so because they'd had it with him. One, though, can't underestimate Ozzie Newsome, who's consistently fixed roster issues from Day One of his career as Baltimore's GM.
A 10-6 record in the AFC North seems the likeliest.
*****
BUFFALO BILLS - Is Sammy Watkins the shiny new toy that fools teams into thinking they're better than they are? The Bills better hope he's more than that, as they've won just 88 games the last fourteen seasons and are in the biggest transition they've ever had with the passing of Ralph Wilson and rumor-mongering of an eventual move to Los Angeles - a rumor that makes no sense given the strength of the Buffalo football market, the nonexistence of a football audience in LA (yet despite this the NFL seems hell-bent on eventually getting a team there, more and more with expansion being the lone option for that) and the fact all the possible owners so far have shown zero interest in moving the team. For all their futility the Bills have legitimate talent, seem now to be building an actual program as opposed to the stopgaps tried since Jim Kelly retired, and in EJ Manuel may now have a genuine quarterback of the future.
If the Bills go 8-8 it will be an important step forward.
*****
CAROLINA PANTHERS - Never before have the Panthers posted back-to-back playoff runs. Today's Panthers, though, look good enough to break that streak after three years of consistent improvement under Cam Newton. The meltdown of early 2012 looks a forgotten memory but overcoming the team's playoff drought - not since Jake Delhomme was quarterback have the Panthers won a playoff game - plus getting more firepower out of the offense are the biggest obstacles. A potential dark horse for the Panthers is Tiquan Underwood; he's never been thrown to that much in his five seasons but in 2013 with the woeful Bucs his yards per catch reached a personal record - 18.3 - with four touchdowns.
The Panthers were 12-4 last year; the division looks more competitive this coming season so it appears 11-5 may be what they have to accept.
*****
CHICAGO BEARS - Signing Jay Cutler to a $126 million deal is why the Bears will not break 8-8 in 2014 or down the road. Marc Trestman showed something in his first NFL head coaching stunt, but keeping a proven bust in Cutler is a mistake, especially after the Bears got better production from Josh McCown, now with the Bucs; in his five starts with Chicago McCown went 3-2 with 13 touchdowns and just one pick.
Good luck trying to finish higher than 8-8, Chicago.
*****
CINCINNATI BENGALS - Now the real test begins. Andy Dalton has now won 30 of his 48 starts with the Bengals and has one of the best receiving corps in the league - but his play hasn't been all that consistent and the playoffs have been a nightmare, not only in poor play but in Dalton's refusal to take accountability shown after the playoff loss to the Chargers. He's also lost offensive coordinator Jay Gruden to the Redskins; Hue Jackson takes over that roll and one can be encouraged since he's familiar with Marvin Lewis and also got 8-8 out of his one head coaching season with the always-abysmal Oakland Raiders.
I think the Bengals take a slight step back to 10-6 in 2014.
*****
CLEVELAND BROWNS - If Brian Hoyer can avoid the injuries that felled him last season, the Browns have a legitimate shot at winning more than four games; asking to finish 8-8 or better right now is too much a stretch for the ever-unstable organization. Hiring the much-mocked Kyle Shanahan as offensive coordinator may not be that smart a move.
*****
DALLAS COWBOYS - There's high-end talent with the Cowboys - imagine what Bill Belichick would do with this roster - but too much is wrong here to expect much beyond another 8-8 season. Though he's put up great numbers, Dez Bryant has long been a headcase and head coach Jason Garrett hasn't shown he can get anything more out of this team. The big problem remains the unreliable Tony Romo; though his volume stats make people fall in love with him his Favreball approach always costs the Cowboys in the end.
Expect the Cowboys to miss the playoffs again; and this time Garrett might get the axe.
*****
DENVER BRONCOS - A lot of pontification has proclaimed that the Broncos are trying to win now because of the free agent splurge they've undertaken, particularly to fix a bad defense. Overlooked, though, is the Broncos got DeMarcus Ware from a Cowboys defense that was worse than theirs, and the defensive unit is still coached by Jack Del Rio, who has never been that good a coach given the massive consistency swings of his defenses; in 2012 his defense was among the best in the league and promptly got shredded for 38 points by the Ravens - aided by yet another playoff collapse by Peyton Manning.
It's easy to think the Broncos finish 12-4 or better, but once the playoffs arrive Manning's fundamental failure will arise again; the Broncos, instead of trying to "win now" (which never works), need instead to start developing a successor to Manning.
*****
DETROIT LIONS - Like the Cowboys the Lions have high-end talent. Unlike the Cowboys the Lions changed coaches for 2014 and now former Colt Jim Caldwell holds the reigns. Changing from the erratic Jim Schwartz was perhaps inevitable, especially after the Lions lost six of their last seven games; signing Caldwell, though, doesn't strike one as all that wise given how he inherited one of the very best teams ever seen in Indianapolis in 2009 and in three years it was Sucking For Luck - and firing Caldwell to boot. The arrival of Reggie Bush in 2013 gave a jolt of muscle to the offense and that should continue in 2014. Matthew Stafford has been spectacular but erratic in his five seasons; I still think he's going to be elite.
In a weak NFC North it may be a stretch to pick the Lions going 10-6, but right now I'll make that pick.
*****
GREEN BAY PACKERS - Overrated is the word that comes to mind for this organization and specifically Aaron Rodgers. "Bucked" Rodgers proved anew he cannot lead a comeback - against the Bengals he proved this in hilarious fashion - and backup Matt Flynn proved it further by actually leading several comebacks for the Packers in Rodgers' absence. The Packers have tried to upgrade the defense, but it's still Dom Capers' defense and therein lay the big problem; signing Julius Peppers is the classic case of falling in love with a Name, as Peppers is not as good as advertised to begin with plus he has to adapt to Capers' different scheme.
This is a Packers bunch that looks 9-7 at best.
*****
HOUSTON TEXANS - This is my pick for Comeback Team Of The Year. Bill O'Brien did something proclaimed impossible - he coached Penn State when Penn State was universally considered dead as a football organization, and made the Nittany Lions winners again. The NFL is obviously quite different, but O'Brien doesn't appear fazed by that, plus he has legitimate talent to work with. For now it appears Ryan Fitzpatrick will start; Fitzpatrick can put up numbers but showed in Buffalo and Tennessee that he's not a winner - in Tennessee in particular he threw away at least three winnable games; the immediate story will be how O'Brien handles Fitzpatrick as well as primary backup Case Keenum, who went 0-8 in Houston last year despite putting up some genuinely promising efforts. Defensive end Jadeveon Clowney is considered the Name in the draft, and he'd better live up to it paired with JJ Watt, Brian Cushing, and that group, though signing Romeo Crennell as defensive coordinator is a mistake, because RAC has proven he can't coach.
Despite my misgivings about Fitzpatrick, I think Houston can reach 8-8 or even surpass it.
*****
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS - Remember 2011? They don't either. It's back to endless contention for the Colts with Andrew Luck and company. 11-5 has been the norm in Luck's first two seasons; expect that again, especially with the overrated NFC East on the Colts' schedule. I do expect the AFC South to be tougher than it's been lately.
*****
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS - Then there's the Jaguars, an organization that has disintegrated since going 8-8 with David Garrard in 2010. Gus Bradley naturally endured a very rough debut season as head coach and is stuck with Mr. Underachievement Chad Henne as his starter; the Jags drafted Blake Bortles for the future and seem unlikely to repeat the mistake made throwing the rookie in raw; it helped ruin Blaine Gabbert and everyone associated with the Jaguars wants to forget "Blame" Gabbert as fast as they can. They went 4-12 last year; they look likely to have to accept 4-12 again this year.
*****
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS - How did the Chiefs go to 11-5 last year? Signing an ex-Eagles head coach and an ex-49ers quarterback is a formula that's worked before for Kansas City, but the biggest reason is they got a division Andy Reid knows by heart (the NFC East), they got the Oakland Raiders, a threat to no one outside of the Pittsburgh Steelers, they got the in-transition Jaguars, and they caught Houston and Tennessee at the worst jucture for them. Here's where it goes from bad to worse - they were 0-6 against Denver, San Diego, and Indianapolis, and in 2014 the Chiefs get Denver and San Diego, New England, what should be a much-better Titans squad, and the NFC West, the best division in the league right now. They also get the NY Jets, who never live up to their arrogance yet never go away. Alex Smith is still starter, and he's simply not the answer. It's suddenly hard to see the Chiefs getting past 6-10 this time around, though Andy Reid' has ability to bounce back.
*****
MIAMI DOLPHINS - The more one reads the Ted Wells Report the less credible it gets, as Wells & company basically took ex-Dolphins tackle Jonathan Martin's side right away and cherry-picked evidence to justify slamming former guard Richie Incognito. The reality is Martin was an inferior player who didn't want to take accountability and was viciously treated as exactly that; it showed in the inconsistent play of the Dolphins O-line in 2013 and before, and the 58 sacks taken by Ryan Tannehill helped make the Dolphins 8-8 season worse than it should have been. The O-line appears to have been strengthened with tackles Branden Albert and rookie Ju'Wuan James. Tannehill has shown he can become something for a Dolphins organization trying to become relevant again. His receivers are more a mixed bag, especially mercurial Mike Wallace. Back-to-back 7-9 seasons may see a repeat in 2014 before the Dolphins truly become contenders.
*****
MINNESOTA VIKINGS - In 2014 the Vikings return to a cold-weather stadium for the first time since the opening of the Metrodome as they play at the University of Minnesota until the new digs downtown get finished. New coach Mike Zimmer takes over a roster that started absymally - 1-7 - and finished respectably at 5-3-1. Matt Cassel appears to be the full-time starter now and more and more looks comfortable in the Vikings offense where he never was in Kansas City's ultimately futile attempt to replicate the Belichick Way. Adrian Peterson may see his workload reduced under new coordinator Norv Turner. The defensive line will have to adjust without longtime star Jared Allen. Overall, this team can easily surpass last year's win total; right now it may be 7-9 for 2014 before the Vikes can break out.
*****
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS - Suddenly we're getting more and more stories proclaiming that Tom Brady is no longer an elite quarterback. The problem with that premise is the comeback wins in 2013 - erasing a 17-3 gap to the Dolphins, the last-second bomb against the Saints, the last-second comeback derailed by Clete Blakeman's endzone gaffe in Carolina, the three straight comeback wins in November highlighted by embarrassing Peyton Manning from down 24-0, and the continuing clutch plays even in losses such as the AFC Championship Game. That kind of pressure showcased how Tom Brady while overseeing the installation of what is basically a new offense on the fly is absolutely an elite quarterback.
The receiving corps had the expected rookie issues and should be even better with a second year under their belt, not to mention potential from the undrafted free agent pickups where the Patriots make their roster construction hay. They went 12-4 last year; expect 12-4 or better in 2014, the 20th anniversary of Robert Kraft's purchase of the team.
*****
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS - Remember The Aints? The Aints ain't what they once where - the term Aints now means You Aint Beating New Orleans. The rebound from Roger Goodell's Hissy Fit Of 2012 was actually a little tougher than expected as the Saints have the Panthers to combat for the NFC South. Getting safety Jarius Byrd will help the defense. Expect Carolina and New Orleans to be neck-and-neck for the South again.
*****
NEW YORK GIANTS - The pattern under Tom Coughlin has always been the same - they race out early and collapse late - except in 2013 they fell apart right away and still went 3-3 in their last six games. Coughlin's inconsistency has been overlooked by the two Superbowl wins, yet it's manifestly there, with just three other playoff appearances with no wins in his ten seasons as Giants coach. The Giants went into a $114 million spree on free agent talent to fix the team, especially an offense called "broken" by team co-owner John Mara. But given Coughlin and Eli Manning's histories it's hard to tell if the Giants can better last year's 7-9 record, even with the weakness of the division.
*****
NEW YORK JETS - They're not that good, yet they finished 8-8 last year. They had a plus-15 turnover differential yet it didn't make them appreciably better. They've also made the mistake of bringing in a Name - Michael Vick - to challenge second-year quarterback Geno Smith; bringing in a Name didn't work for Mark Sanchez and it raises still more reason to doubt the Jets' ability to develop quality quarterbacks. The Jets also imported Eric Decker as receiver and Chris Johnson as running back; Johnson hasn't been the same since his 2011 holdout, scoring just 14 touchdowns in three seasons vs. the 14 in 2009 alone. Some how the Jets get better records than they deserve, so 8-8 may be what they get again in 2014.
*****
OAKLAND RAIDERS - Because we have to.
The Raiders finally got out of their salary-cap jail, but signing Matt Schaub as quarterback and Maurice Jones-Drew from the Jaguars just proves things stay the same, as neither player looks to have anything left. They revamped their front seven on defense; if LaMarr Woodley, Antonio Smith, and Justin Tuck prove the doubters wrong the Raiders may have the last laugh after all. I'm not seeing it, though; it's the Raiders, they're a mess, and 4-12 is to be expected.
*****
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES - After a slow start the Eagles erupted in 2013 and should be better with Nick Foles now firmly the starter and Chip Kelly proving he can handle the NFL - though the sideline signboards still need getting used to. Playoff play needs to improve, but overall the Eagles look like they can get there. The schedule gets harder with the NFC East, so bettering last year's 10-6 will be a huge chore.
*****
PITTSBURGH STEELERS - The loss to Tim Tebow in the 2011 playoffs continues to haunt this team as the Steelers have gone 16-16 since then and suddenly look incapable of building an offensive line. Todd Haley and Ben Roethlisberger didn't get along that well in 2013 and Haley is not a coach to feel confidence in. The schedule appears in the 9-7 range for the Steelers.
*****
ST. LOUIS RAMS - 14-17-1 under Jeff Fisher is respectable; now the leap forward has to take place. Sam Bradford is under the gun as he hasn't taken the next step since his promising 2010 season and the division is - stop me if I said this already - the best in the league right now. Brian Schottenheimer does not appear to be anything close to enough as an offensive coordinator, and the Rams need to start attacking more. It appears they have to settle for another 7-9 or 8-8 in 2014.
*****
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS - How mixed was 2013? They underachieved yet made the playoffs and won for the first time since 2008. Yet in the end they still underachieved at 9-7. They should be substantially better having gotten a year under Mike McCoy under their belt; Philip Rivers showed improvement in 2013 and has the chip of losing to Peyton Manning four times the last two seasons on his shoulder; he's a better quarterback than Manning and I expect he'll prove it again. 11-5 is my pick here.
*****
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS - Can the Niners repeat 12-4 from last year? Maybe not, as Colin Kaepernick played well but showed that teams are figuring him out and the Niners have the future quandry of how much to pay him down the road. There's also the bizarre rumor-mongering surrounding Jim Harbaugh. Given how good they've been I'll pick them to go 12-4 again but this is a soft pick; take the under on that one.
*****
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS - They look like the best Superbowl winner since the 2003 Patriots, but unlike that group the Superbowl winners jinx has been real - the 2005 Patriots were the last defending champs to win a playoff game; since then the 2006 and 2009 Steelers, 2007 Colts, 2008 and 2012 NY Giants, 2010 Saints, 2011 Packers, and 2013 Ravens either didn't make the playoffs or were bounced in their first game (the cumulative record of defending champs from 2005 onward is 1-5 in the playoffs). The Seahawks lost substantial depth after the title but overall are more than good enough to repeat as division champs. 12-4 is the bet here, and you may want to consider the over.
*****
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS - Josh Freeman proved to be a team-killer in 2013 and the Bucs now have Bears washout Lovie Smith to take over from Greg Schiano. Josh McCown was signed to be starter over Mike Glennon; McCown proved something in Chicago but Glennon also showed genuine promise in 2013. It looks like a mess and feels like a 5-11 team for 2014.
*****
TENNESSEE TITANS - A lot of people seem down on Jake Locker, and I'm baffled why. The Titans didn't pick up his 2015 option, as though this somehow means they've had enough of him. People forget Locker showed real growth as a quarterback in 2013, has established himself as the leader, and the issue of injuries is akin to Matthew Stafford, who missed most of his first two seasons and hasn't missed a start since. The Titans finished 7-9 last year due to the poor play of Ryan Fitzpatrick; they can be a 10-6 team at worst in 2014.
*****
WASHINGTON REDSKINS - Robert Griffin III was the biggest reason the Redskins became the Deadskins again in 2013 with abysmal efforts; Griffin went to quarterback trainer Terry Shea and it appears the work has improved Griffin. Having said this, ex-coach Mike Shanahan does not deserve benefit of the doubt as he proved he's not a competent coach and hasn't been since John Elway retired. Jay Gruden did a great job as coordinator in Cincinnati, but head coaching is a step up, and the Redskins have been a mess for so long that even Bill Belichick would have a hard time overcoming dimbulb Daniel Snyder. If the Skins surpass 6-10 it will be a substantial upgrade.
We thus continue the countdown to training camp.
No comments:
Post a Comment