Why The NFL Will Expand Playoffs

NOTE: This has been updated to cover the 2014 season:



The proposal to expand NFL playoffs by one team per conference - going to four division winners and three wildcards per conference - has been tabled for 2014 but implementation seems inevitable.   It nonetheless has sports talk types up in relative arms with complaints about watering down the regular season etc. and the reason for playoff expansion always centers on more revenue generated.

But looking at the NFL from 2003 onward shows there is a legitimate competitive reason why the NFL will expand the playoffs.   Consider the following -


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2003:
Miami Dolphins - 10-6
Minnesota Vikings - 9-7


2004:
Buffalo Bills - 9-7
Baltimore Ravens - 9-7
Jacksonville Jaguars - 9-7


2005:
Miami Dolphins - 9-7
Kansas City Chiefs - 10-6
San Diego Chargers - 9-7
Dallas Cowboys - 9-7
Minnesota Vikings - 9-7


2006:
Denver Broncos - 9-7


2007:
Cleveland Browns - 10-6


2008:
New England Patriots - 11-5
NY Jets - 9-7
Dallas Cowboys - 9-7
Chicago Bears - 9-7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 9-7


2009:
Pittsburgh Steelers - 9-7
Houston Texans - 9-7
Atlanta Falcons - 9-7


2010:
San Diego Chargers - 9-7
NY Giants - 10-6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 10-6


2011:
Tennessee Titans - 9-7


2012:
NY Giants - 9-7
Chicago Bears - 10-6


2013:
Arizona Cardinals - 10-6

2014:
Buffalo Bills - 9-7
Houston Texans - 9-7
San Diego Chargers - 9-7
Kansas City Chiefs - 9-7
Philadelphia Eagles - 10-6


What do all these teams have in common? None made the playoffs in those years.   There is also the plethora of 8-8 teams that didn't make the playoffs in each of those seasons -

2003 and 2004:
Cincinnati Bengals
New Orleans Saints

2005:
Atlanta Falcons

2006:
Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers
Tennessee Titans
Jacksonville Jaguars
Green Bay Packers
Carolina Panthers
St. Louis Rams

2007:
Houston Texans
Minnesota Vikings
Philadelphia Eagles
Arizona Cardinals

2008:
Houston Texans
Denver Broncos
Washington Redskins
New Orleans Saints

2009:

Tennessee Titans
Denver Broncos
NY Giants
Carolina Panthers
San Francisco 49ers

2010:
Jacksonville Jaguars
Oakland Raiders

2011:
NY Jets
San Diego Chargers
Oakland Raiders
Philadelphia Eagles
Dallas Cowboys
Chicago Bears
Arizona Cardinals

2012:
Pittsburgh Steelers
Dallas Cowboys

2012:
NY Jets
Miami Dolphins
Baltimore Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers
Dallas Cowboys
Chicago Bears

2014:
Miami Dolphins
San Francisco 49ers




An argument I keep hearing against playoff expansion is that it will mean more 7-9 teams making the playoffs - a scenario that's happened only twice in NFL history (2010 Seahawks and 2014 Panthers).   The reality is playoff expansion will simply put more teams with winning records into the playoffs.