The NFL's first week of 2017 erupted into some eye-popping surprises and some statement performances, but in the end turned out to be a lackluster opener with the lack of crisp play common to the league's opening week due to the restriction in physicality in practices etc. imposed from 2011 onward. In league history falling to 0-2 has a poor record as far as rebounds, so "must win" becomes an angle to watch.
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Bengals over Texans -
This is a case of two teams that looked awful in their season opener. The Bengals had beaten the Ravens seven of their previous ten meetings, so that makes this loss all the more disturbing for Cincy's season down the road. Andy Dalton's performance tells the story - four INTs, just 170 yards passing, to go with a paltry 77 rushing yards (3.5 YPC). He now hosts a Texans team whose defense is advertised as one of the best in the league but which got exposed as a fraud (especially Houston's run defense) by the Jaguars. But of course it's quarterbacking that counts, and Bill O'Brien's inability to develop a quarterback is haunting his team yet again as Tom Savage played his way to the bench and then vaunted rookie Deshaun Watson threw a touchdown, got sacked four times, and threw an awful interception. Savage may have to start again with Watson reportedly banged up, so Thursday Night Football's poor reputation for quality play may take another big hit this time around.
Patriots over Saints -
Of the surprises of Week One, none was bigger than New England's 42-27 embarrassment by the Kansas City Chiefs. The most shocking development was Tom Brady periodically lapses into leaning on a binky instead of spreading the ball around; despite two weeks with which he was supposed to work more closely with his other receivers and for Josh McDaniels to work out a different game plan, the Patriots came out with essentially a Julian Edelman package for Danny Amendola and Brady leaned on a binky - Amendola's six catches for 100 yards were Edelman-esque until he was knocked out of the game. After this Brady looked shockingly unprepared to throw to anyone else; the scoresheet says Brandin Cooks was targeted seven times but it never seemed like Brady looked his way that many times; Philip Dorsett, in Foxboro less than a week, was targeted once on an overthrow. The Chiefs defense was the old clog-the-middle approach that teams have tried forever; the Falcons took away Edelman in the Superbowl and Brady got the hint and made the effort to engage others in the passing game.
The Patriots are masters at making changes and Brady and Belichick undoubtedly let everyone else have it about lack of intensity, and at New Orleans one should expect a crisper, more prepared team, especially against a Saints team that's 39-42 (just one winning season) the last five seasons and which gave up 470 yards to the Vikings. Drew Brees once again didn't deliver clutch performance, and was outscored by Brady 27-19 in comparing the two from Week One. The controversy over Adrian Peterson's meltdown to Sean Payton ignores that he gained a paltry three yards per carry in his return to Minnesota.
Browns over Ravens -
The Ravens are suddenly boasting their defense is Superbowl caliber again, and Joe Flacco delivered enough offense to win the game. The Ravens, though, weren't particularly effective on offense outside of Javorius Allen and Terrence West rushing for 151 yards, which certainly made a difference but also served to cloak weaknesses such as Danny Woodhead's injury (out up to six weeks per Pro Football Talk), Flacco's subpar passing (just 9 of 17 for 121 yards with a touchdown and a pick), and continued lack of contribution from Breshad Perriman. The Browns come in with DeShone Kizer under center. Though sacked seven times Kizer clawed the Browns into contention with 222 yards and a touchdown against the always-hated Steelers. Cleveland looks for a rare victory over the Ravens, and right now the boasts about the Ravens defense need more substance behind them.
Bills over Panthers -
Tyrod Tayler impressed new coach - and ex-Panther - Sean McDermott and everyone else as one of three backs rushing for 192 yards and added 224 passing yards and two scores. He now faces a Panthers squad that beat up the woeful 49ers, putting up 116 yards on the ground and 171 from Cam Newton. The Bills come in with the division lead while the Panthers are tied with the Falcons for the NFC South. The Panthers' collapse last year is still fresh in the memory - the win at San Francisco was only the seventh in Carolina's last eighteen games - so it would seem the Bills may have an edge in momentum at the moment.
Cardinals over Colts -
Jacoby Brissett at this writing is the presumptive starter for the Colts after Scott Tolzien gagged his way out of his starting job in getting obliterated by the Rams; the last time the Colts cycled through the NFC West (2013) the Rams and Cardinals laid waste to the Colts and the organization looks in shambles. This is a blessing the Cardinals needed after gagging in Detroit and looking like just another 8-8 at best team with aging and increasingly ineffective Carson Palmer (three INTs at Detroit). The Colts should make this game far more competitive than they attempted at Los Angeles.
Jaguars over Titans -
This series has split the last eight seasons and the last time the road time won was the 2013 season split. The game should be bitterly tight; the Jaguars managed just 125 yards in the air, may be without Allen Robinson at receiver, and committed ten penalties while the Titans in their loss to the Raiders had just five penalties and were not too bad in run defense (3.7 YPC allowed), plus Marcus Mariota is a higher caliber quarterback than Tom Savage or Deshaun Watson. Overall, though, the biggest difference is the Jaguars appear far crisper and defensively they look a lot better than they've looked in years.
Chiefs over Eagles -
The Eagles showed competitive form in beating the Redskins but now face their former coach and his Chiefs team with momentum after their biggest win in years. Losing Eric Berry for the season, though, may weaken the Chiefs defense, especially with Carson Wentz coming in after putting up over 300 yards in the air. Alex Smith, though, can certainly counter this and one suspects Andy Reid still has a feel for the NFC East as it rotates through the AFC West.
Vikings over Steelers -
The Steelers beat the Browns again, but Ben Roethlisberger, though efficient, curiously looks less engaged than before; his talk about retirement still hangs over the Steelers and they host a Vikings team with an emotional win over the Saints under their belt and nearly 500 yards of offense generated. Le'Veon Bell rushed for thirty-two yards on ten carries; he should be better as he gets more snaps, but overall the Steelers didn't look different from what they were last season.
Bears over Buccaneers -
The Bears showed something in a bitter loss to the Falcons, falling short on four straight pass incompletions, with two ugly drops, in the hot zone at the end of the game. They get a Bucs team that hasn't played thanks to the disaster that has been 2017's hurricane season and we saw how Houston didn't respond after that city withstood a huge hurricane.
Dolphins over Chargers -
The Chargers are kicking themselves after the bitterest loss they've experienced in awhile. The Dolphins beat the Chargers last season and Jay Cutler may not be a wise choice at quarterback but is good enough to attack a Chargers team that hasn't shown it can respond to losses like the one at Denver.
Raiders over NY Jets -
What you need to know - Josh McCown's passer rating against the Bills was 56.3, Todd Bowles punted instead of convert 4th and 8 with four minutes to go, and the result was not only a loss but sign the Jets have no fight. The Raiders meanwhile are loaded for a title run, so this should be easy pickings.
Cowboys over Broncos -
The Broncos win by escaping yet again, and being sixteenth in points allowed after one game is not a good sign against a Cowboys team that curiously is just seventeenth in scoring (though third in points allowed). Trevor Siemian had a respectable night - 94.2 passer rating is getting a good job done - but the Broncos basically just frontran and when the Chargers finally started fighting back the Broncos didn't respond well, and the O-line did Siemian no favors on back-to-back sacks before the missed FGA that led to the mind-blower of a finish. We saw last year the Broncos live by escaping and eventually die by it.
Seahawks over 49ers -
Two lackluster teams. The Niners are in full rebuild mode while the Seahawks we thought were the most season-ready of everyone coming out of preseason; that has not been the case, on the contrary the Seahawks look in slow-motion collapse. The curious aspect is Russell Wilson not delivering enough to make the Seahawks win more with the Seahawks just 25th in scoring. The home record should help them here.
Rams over Redskins -
The Rams we doubt are this good overall, but scoring 46 points in the NFL is pretty damned good, and hosting a Redskins outfit that looks to have regressed back into Deadskins mode should help the Rams, who forced three turnovers by the Colts and see a Skins offense that gagged up four against the Eagles.
Falcons over Packers -
The Packers produced a lackluster win over a bad road team in the Seahawks and now return to the sight of a two-game sweep by 77-53 in 2016. The Packers are fifth in points allowed but the Falcons showed at the Bears that they can win low-scoring games, plus the Packers in the fourth quarter against the Seahawks once again didn't raise their game, a malady that has dogged Aaron Rodgers his whole career (noteworthy is the Falcons in the fourth against the Bears outscored the Packers against the Seahawks 10-3).
Lions over NY Giants -
The Lions have yet to beat quality foes but in the NY Giants they get a team that looks disorganized and poorly prepared. Eli Manning threw a pick, the O-line is a mess, Brandon Marshall has already proven himself irrelevant, Odell Beckham Jr. isn't clutch even when healthy, and the Giants are thirteenth in points allowed while giving up 4.2 YPC on the ground and 6.6 YPP in the air. The Lions, though, aren't that good on the ground (a paltry three YPC) while Matthew Stafford for now looks a lot better a quarterback than Eli, so the Lions we think will focus at first on throwing their way to a lead.
And so we await Week Two.
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