Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Bread And Butter Lead To Week Three





The Patriots scrapped the gameplan used against the Chiefs and went back to their bread-and-butter offense and crushed the New Orleans Saints


Week Two saw an expected improvement in crispness of play outside of the Thursday Night affair between Houston and Cincinnati; there is also a subplot with the CFL banning padded full-contact practices, a change the NFL is monitoring but which won't be reciprocated.    With two weeks of the season, some trends are beginning to develop.    We look back at Week Two while making our picks for Week Three -


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Rams over 49ers

The Rams' schedule turned out to be easier than some expected, though the Redskins looked like a good team again.   The Rams now fly to San Francisco with the Niners staring at 0-2.   They've shown some more fight than expected, notably at Seattle.



Patriots over Texans -New England diversified the offense by diversifying who got the touches, this after putting in an Edelman offense against the Chiefs.   The Patriots also dodged a bullet with injuries to Gronkowski, Chris Hogan, and newcomer Philip Dorsett, who caught three passes for 68 yards and thus showed he can flesh out a depleted receiving corps that didn't get a catch until 13:09 into the first quarter at New Orleans.    Injury to Donta Hightower appears to be such that if he misses any time at all it will be two games tops.    They get their first look at DeShaun Watson, who has thrown 47 passes with 27 completions for a measely five yards per completion (and a passer rating of 68.15) and whose primary attack so far is rushing the ball (seven rushes for 83 yards and a score).  The Texans defense is long hyped but got exposed by the Jaguars and the Patriots are not running the Edelman offense anymore, which makes the odds higher for the struggling Texans.  J.J. Watt in particular always seems to go into Witness Protection when he plays the Patriots.





The Raiders are the Raiders again, and the NY Jets are.......well, in full Suck For Sam - that's Darnold - mode, right down to a punt bouncing off Kalif Raymond's helmet and becoming a Raiders scoring drive just past the two-minute warning

Dolphins over NY Jets -   22nd in points while gagging up four turnovers, dead last in points allowed - Suck For Sam is the operating phrase of the 2017 NY Jets, with about the only positive being Jermaine Kearse.   The Dolphins meanwhile come in after an escape job at the Chargers, their first win in their first game of the season







The Titans overcame a costly INT by Mariota to crush the Jaguars, who crashed back to earth after their eye-opening win over the Texans

Ravens over Jaguars at London -The NFL hits London for the first time this year and the Ravens come in at 2-0 while the Jaguars got a rude awakening in a 37-16 home embarrassment by the Titans.   While the Jags are averaging 22 points scored the Ravens are averaging that same number with ten points per game allowed, plus ten turnovers forced.   Joe Flacco hasn't put up monster numbers but he has three touchdowns to two INTs, slightly better than Blake Bortles and his seeming regression back to subpar quarterbacking status.



Buccaneers over Vikings - The Vikings have quarterback problems again with Sam Bradford forced to sit out the loss at Pittsburgh; if he can't go against the Bucs we're not sure the Vikings can generate enough for a win.   Their former NFC Central division mates are in the top-seven in points and points allowed, albeit having only played one game.   Forcing four turnovers (one Robert McClain's pick six) vs the Bears certainly does make a case for the Bucs defense while Jameis Winston played a solid game.



Eagles over NY Giants - The Eagles fell again to their former coach and didn't force a turnover after forcing four by the Redskins, but they get a Giants team that is 0-2, last in offense and whose star - Odell Beckham Jr. - is transmuting more into a marketing-oriented locker room cancer instead of a playmaker.   The irony is Eli Manning has completed some 75% of his passes so far vs. Carson Wentz' 60%, yet is playing so poorly his own head coach has publicly called him out - not a sign of a season that is developing in a positive manner.



Panthers over Saints - It's now obvious the Saints have no future with Sean Payton and perhaps not with Drew Brees; 0-2 advertises at best another 7-9 season as they take on the offensively-mediocre Panthers who with that are leading the league in fewest points allowed.   Cam Newton's career-long struggles with completion percentage continue at 59 and change and just two touchdowns.  Rookie Christian McCaffrey has shown spark but not much sustained production at an abysmal 2.7 yards per carry; he's done more damage catching the ball (nine catches for 72 yards).   Given the recent history of this series with back-to-back 41-38 games twice in the last three meetings we could see points scored here.


Colts over Browns -  This is a risky pick because the Colts have collapsed (they're in the bottom six in the league on both sides of the ball) to where 8-8 may be beyond their reach.   The Browns aren't in better shape though after DeShone Kizer went out with a migrane against the Ravens.   Right now we think Jacoby Brissett will start for the Colts; he constituted an improvement over Scott Tolzien and the Colts were competitive to the end against the Cardinals, but this one could get ugly.






The Falcons are now 2-0 while Aaron Rodgers fell to 1-1

Falcons over Lions -  The Falcons are showing no sign of a Superbowl collapse hangover, though they could have done somewhat better putting away their game against the perennially-overrated Packers.   This week they travel to Detroit, 2-0 after a comeback against the Cards and manhandling the Giants.   Look for the points to pile up here.






Trevor Siemian exploded the Broncos offense like we haven't seen it since Peyton Manning's 2013 season 

Broncos over Bills -  The Bills didn't get it done against an offensively-mediocre Panthers team, this week they face a Broncos team that is fourth in points scored after averaging 20th in points scored the previous two seasons.   Trevor Siemian didn't put up this kind of explosiveness before (four touchdowns, 68% completion, a 116 passer rating) and such a surge of offense spells trouble for opponents down the road, provided he sustains it - something he didn't quite do in his quasi-rookie season. 


Steelers over Bears -  How much longer will the Mike Glennon experiment continue?  At this rate we don't think he'll be starter by latter-October as the Steelers come in looking for their third-straight win.





Titans over Seahawks -   The Seahawks are fifth in defense but that is somewhat illusory after a loss to the mediocre Packers and the win over the struggling 49ers, plus the Seahawks have locker room issues and have had them since Richard Sherman played his way to getting traded only to see the Seahawks unable to finish that job; Michael Bennett's self-serving character assassination of Vegas cops further displays a poisonous Seahawks locker room culture, one not conducive to winning - and something they haven't done well on the road, having lost ten (with the 2016 tie at Arizona for good measure) of their last twenty road games.  They go to Tennessee fresh off the Titans' 37-16 pasting of the Jaguars, presently ninth in scoring though Marcus Mariota's completion percentage in two games  reached 60% against the Raiders but faded to 55 and change against the Jaguars with a pick. 







Packers over Bengals - At the Falcons Aaron Rodgers lost for the 42nd time in 52 comeback attempts and the 32nd time in 36 games when he's trailed by at least two scores.  Should the Falcons finish with a winning record Rodgers will thus have lost in 36 comeback tries against a quality opponent; overall the Packers are 15th in points and 17th in points allowed.    This week Rodgers gets a Bengals team that has collapsed almost out of the box despite being seventh in fewest points allowed.



2015 breakdown of AJ McCarron

The idiotic story that some Bengals players are lobbying for the inept Colin Kaepernick instead of Dalton's backup AJ McCarron is mind-boggling, for McCarron when he had to play in 2015 showed genuine form and in particular was far better than Andy Dalton in the playoff game that season, erasing a 15-0 Steelers lead and putting the Bengals into the lead late.     



Chiefs over Chargers  -  USC outdrew the combined attendances of the Chargers and Rams in LA - this spells for all to see that the NFL made a complete mistake moving even one team to the worst sports market in the country. The Chiefs make their first trip to LA since November 10, 1991, a 27-20 win at Anaheim Stadium won on Derrick Thomas' fumble return score in the fourth.  The Chiefs come in looking like world-beaters despite being 25th in points allowed, while the Chargers are livid at back-to-back losses on missed FGAs by the rookie YoungHoe Koo, a mind-numbingly bad 25% field goal percentage.   The worst part for the Chargers is Philip Rivers has stormed to 73.6% completion (106.4 passer rating) and four touchdowns; he faces Alex Smith and his 77% completion rate (a whopping 134.1 passer rating)





             

Raiders over Redskins - The Skins are mediocre at 1-1 and 27th in points allowed; they are getting decent play out of Kirk Cousins. At the Rams three Redskins backs erupted for 222 yards and the Skins have averaged 5.2 yards per carry so far. The Raiders come in leading the league in points, tenth in points allowed, 126.5 passer rating for Derek Carr, and are themselves averaging 5.2 YPC on the ground but are getting hit at 4.8 YPC allowed, they've also lost three of their last five road games.  Even so the Raiders look like the Raiders again where the Redskins look like the dysfunctional mess they've been since the mid-1990s.



Cardinals over Cowboys  -   An ominous development was showcased in Dallas' loss to the Broncos - when Zeke Elliott was shut down the Cowboys offense fell apart - Dak Prescott threw 50 passes with 30 completions and two touchdowns but was picked off twice; targeted sixteen times Dez Bryant had just seven catches for 59 yards and a score.    That the Cowboys are this one-dimensional - and publicly attacking each other with the story Elliott quit on the game - shakes confidence in their season going forward as they go to a Cardinals team that pulled off an unexpected win at Indianapolis. 



We thus await Week Three

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