Monday, November 13, 2017

Special Teams Make Special Plays Entering Week 11




The Patriots special teams proved decisive in New England's 41-16 massacre of the Broncos, and New England's investment in special teams has long paid off.   






Amid the escalating war between Jerry Jones and Roger Goodell - and the laughable opulence of Goodell's reported contract extension demands including $50 million, a plane for life, and health insurance for his family (which Goodell can already pay for himself) - the story of Martellus Bennett quitting on the faltering Packers and jerking his way into getting cut and then getting signed by the Patriots is a curious melodrama.   Regardless of the machinations of a player who's been an ass everywhere except Foxboro, we have Week Ten coming up -






Titans over Steelers -  Tennessee has now won four straight games against AFC North teams and has won seven of the last ten meetings with AFC Central legacy teams (the Houston Texans alas really don't count as an AFC Central legacy team despite Houston being one of that division's longtime host towns) so they go to a Steelers team that had to rally against a scrappier-than-expected Colts team.   The Titans have outscored the Steelers 205 to 187 this season while the Steelers are second in points allowed.   Both teams are all but the same in turnover differential (Tennessee has a slight edge at plus-One to Pittsburgh's minus-One) and Roethlisberger and Mariota are roughly the same in touchdown to INT ratio; the Titans have an edge in run defense as well, so expect another taut affair.


Ravens over Packers - The surprise was that the Packers beat the Bears.   They are now 5-4 but taking on the 4-5 Ravens, who look like better competition now than was the case when Rodgers was still there.   The Ravens haven't beaten the Packers since bludgeoning Brett Favre 48-3 in 2005 yet the Packers don't look like a playoff team; that the Ravens aren't either doesn't lessen that they now have a better shot than they would be thought of having at the end of September.



Buccaneers over Dolphins - This was supposed to be Week One, but of course circumstances beyond anyone's control intervened.   The Bucs got a needed win over another AFC East team last week and now get another such team, this one the increasingly inept Dolphins, this despite a surprisingly competitive match against the Panthers last time out.   Ryan Fitzpatrick, the presumptive starter, got swept by the Dolphins last year, but that was with Ryan Tannehill as quarterback.







Saints over Redskins - Shocker of a stat - Drew Brees is 1-4 against the Skins as Saints quarterback (2-4 lifetime) as his Saints host the Skins on a seven-game winning streak.   The Skins can put up points as they did against a good defense in the Vikings and turnover differential is surprisingly close at minus-One for Washington and plus-Three for New Orleans.   The Saints however are exploding, so we think they win even if it takes a 52-35 style score to do it.


Jaguars over Browns - Two of the very first wins in Jaguars history were against the Cleveland Browns before they transmuted into the Baltimore Ravens.   There is literally nothing in this matchup that favors Cleveland. 


Cardinals over Texans -  The Texans are now taking a Savage beating with Tom as their quarterback.  The schizophrenic Cardinals got mildly embarrassed at home to the Seahawks and now go to a faltering Texans team.   Bill O'Brien's postgame acceptance of responsibility for poor quarterback play showcases again his inability to do something he is supposed to do - develop a quarterback.






Rams over Vikings - This could be Game Of The Year, two 7-2 powers head on.   Curiously the Rams' two losses have both been home losses as they host a Vikings team that is fifth in points allowed but only tenth in scoring, while the Rams are first in scoring, fourth in points allowed, and plus-Seven in turnover differential.   Minnesota's edge could be on the ground at 118 yards per game, the same number allowed per game by the Rams. 


Chiefs over NY Giants - The most damning evidence that Ben McAdoo will be fired is that he's spent his time enabling Odell Beckham Jr and it's clear the other players see this favoritism for an inept receiver who's a bitch.    The question now is whether Eli Manning goes to the Jaguars for 2018.


Lions over Bears -  Now we wonder if John Fox will last in Chicago.   If Matthew Stafford has to beat a bad team, he'll do it, albeit it may make it look like a deadlocked playoff game to do it. 


Bills over Chargers -  The Bills may now be falling out of the playoff race (they're clinging to the Number 6 seed at present) but they get an underwhelming Chargers team this week.   San Diego is woefully behind the Bills in turnover differential (Buffalo remains at plus-Eleven there), running the ball, and especially stopping the run (presently dead last in rushing yards allowed per game).    


Broncos over Bengals - Maybe this week the collapsing Broncos get a respite with the subpar Bengals, coming in off a bitter loss at Tennessee, 1-3 since their bye week, 30th in scoring, and with Vontaze Burfict getting tossed from games yet again.    One wonders if either coach will make it after Week 17.


Patriots over Raiders, Mexico City -  The Raiders have faltered to 4-5, the Patriots now appear to be the unstoppable machine they've largely been for over fifteen years.    Most encouraging for the Patriots - Tom Brady threw to nine different pass catchers and the stats between catches was strikingly even.   Spreading the ball breaks up the opponent defense every time.


Eagles over Cowboys -  The Eagles lead the NFC for a reason, and the Cowboys suddenly look a lot weaker without Zeke Elliott.   NFC East games usually become tight affairs so we should expect a taut game and a lot of points with both teams in the top-eight in points and midpack in points allowed. 


Seahawks over Falcons - The Seahawks stubbed their toe at home against the Redskins but now get a Falcons team that has struggled this season, especially on turnovers (minus-Three to Seattle's plus-Six).   Oddly, the Falcons are sixth in pass defense where the Seahawks are just 13th. 


So we await special plays by special players on special teams - and everyone else. 

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