Wednesday, December 19, 2018

Playoff Push Getting Pushed For Week 16


And suddenly the 2018 NFL season isn't what we thought it would be.




The first sign of Upset Weekend was San Diego's upset of the Kansas City Chiefs, the Chargers'  first win over the Chiefs since 2013, and coming when San Diego at almost no point of the game seemed capable of a comeback, especially after Philip Rivers' atrocious INT in the endzone in the second quarter.






Easily the worst loss for a division leader was New England's horrific effort at Pittsburgh.   The Steelers gagged up two more INTs and managed just 17 points, but Tom Brady's overreliance on a binky in Julian Edelman cost his team again with the INT, then the fourth down failure where Cordarrelle Patterson (three catches) was open entering the endzone yet Brady ignored him for the binky - an atrocious myopia especially considering Brady's unprecedented career success yet disturbingly repeated over Brady's career at inopportune times, notably 2014 at Kansas City and earlier this season at Tennessee - worth remembering is that in 2005 Belichick began riding Brady to get away from Deion Branch (his first binky); also it should be remembered that when Belichick has challenged Brady on the receiving corps - 2006, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2014 - Brady responded.








Indianapolis and Tennessee are now in a three-way fight wth Baltimore for the last AFC playoff spot with shutout wins over NFC East teams.  Derrick Henry's eruption continued with 33 runs and 170 yards and two scores.




Dallas' loss aided the Eagles, who had to change quarterbacks again and suddenly Nick Foles may not be just a backup going forward even beyond 2018, as he led the Eagles to a 30-23 win at LA.





The Bears cinched the NFC North by putting the Packers out of everyone's misery, yet another Aaron Rodgers loss down two scores.


So now the last two weeks beckon and some teams better hurry up and clinch something -






Titans over Redskins -   Tennessee keeps on keeping on and the Redskins clawed out the win at Jacksonville but overall once again don't have it for a playoff effort.


Chargers over Ravens - The Ravens are getting the wins with Lamar Jackson, but a pedestrian 82 passer rating (lower than that of Joe Flacco, now certain to be gone from the Ravens by season's end) and now being the team's leading rusher (566 yards and five yards per carry; Gus Edwards is second at 550 yards, also 5 YPC) simply are not sustainable results for success; at some point Jackson has to become a better passer - and ratings of 100 and 91 his last two games are an encouraging beginning there.   And a Chargers team that now has the AFC West and a playoff bye to play for won't roll over for the Ravens, whose own division chances were harmed by Pittsburgh's upset win.


Browns over Bengals -   The Browns have motivation to keep winning, and Gregg Williams may have played his way into the full-time coaching job, while the Bengals' season is shot.  Jeff Driskel got a needed win against the Raiders yet was awful in doing so at a worthless 51.3 in passer rating.


Vikings over Lions -  The recent history has turned against the Lions in this rivalry with two straight losses to a Vikings team that showed shocking rejuvenation after changing offensive coordinators, a doubly bad sign given the Lions season became irrelevant weeks back and is a poor beginning for Matt Patricia.   It's also time to reconsider Matthew Stafford, finishing his tenth season with his fifth losing record and just two seasons above nine wins. 


Packers over NY Jets  - The lack of hustle at the very end of the Jets' loss to Houston says everything about the Jets and Sam Darnold, this as they welcome a Packers squad that itself is arguably in worse shape with a locker-room-cancer of a quarterback and a lame-duck interim coach.


Eagles over Texans - Superbowl hero Nick Foles is back and the Eagles look like a stronger team with him.   What to do with him and Carson Wentz are issues for another time; right now the Eagles' playoff lives are at stake and they have a 10-0 lifetime record against Houston NFL teams.   Given the fight of the Texans this year, though, expect a competitive game.


Falcons over Panthers -  The Panthers are now irrelevant with six straight losses.   Cam Newton's arm is shot.   The Falcons finally showed real firepower last week.   Forget it, Carolina.


Colts over NY Giants -   The Colts are surging and the Giants are 1-2 against AFC South teams after their late-season surge got steamrolled by Derrick Henry last week.   Forgotten in this whole thing is the Colts started 1-5 and have all but clinched a winning record for the year.


Cowboys over Buccaneers -  Remember when this used to be a rivalry?  That was all of one or two games.   The Bucs despite 4,677 yards and 31 touchdowns from their quarterbacks are just 5-9 with a 92.85 passer rating and 25 interceptions.   The Cowboys got embarrassed last week and this is the kind of opponent needed to regain momentum.


Dolphins over Jaguars -  Surprisingly, Doug Marrone may stay on as Jaguars coach despite the utter collapse of their season, 30th in scoring and minus-12 in turnover differential vs. Miami's plus-9. 


Patriots over Bills - No doubt disgusted over losing to a Steelers team they own, the Patriots return home with a 3-5 road record and their worst season since 2009.   No pattern has emerged to explain the Patriots' road struggles and the importance of winning the last two games has only grown.   They get in Josh Allen a quarterback unable to reach 55% completion and stuck at 65 in passer rating.


Bears over 49ers -   Nick Mullens has played well with passer ratings above 102 the last two games, but the surging Bears want to keep up momentum for their first playoff run since 2010.


Rams over Cardinals -  Losing to the Eagles was a double blow to the Rams, whose chance at the top NFC seed is now gone, and since their bye week they've scored just 20 points a game with nine turnovers.  Jared Goff ironically broke out of a recent slump against the Eagles, going from 48


Saints over Steelers -   The Steelers somehow escaped with a win, and now they go to a banged-up Saints team averaging just seventeen points per game their last three contests.   We think, though, the Saints will grind out the win as they've been doing lately.


Chiefs over Seahawks -  As strong as the Seahawks have been the loss at San Francisco takes some starch out of them as the Chiefs, who've begun to win ugly with some more frequency lately, want to bounce back from losing to the Chargers.


Broncos over Raiders -  Not much here with the Raiders at 3-10 and the Broncos now out of the playoffs at 6-8.



So it goes into Week 16.

Tuesday, December 11, 2018

Playoff Runners Look To Avoid Lateral Damage In Week 15





The Boston Herald had the perfect headline for this game - Lateral Damage.   The Upset Of The Year left everyone shocked as a pass play turned into a hook and double-lateral play that worked.   The win keeps the Dolphins eighth in the AFC playoff race.






Oakland's fourth win in the last six meetings with the Steelers doesn't qualify as an upset because the Steelers had been exposed as frauds entering this game and now the Steelers are sliding - perhaps sliding out of the playoffs a la 1998.   






Tennessee stayed in the playoff run with a 30-9 rout of the Jaguars.   Derrick Henry erupted with 238 rushing yards and four scores, for a season-average of an eye-popping 4.9 yards per carry.   Marcus Mariota thus wasn't asked to do a lot but did complete 75% of his passes, yet low yardage, a pick, and a sack left his passer rating at a disappointing 75.   The loss for the Jaguars has led to buzz that GM Tom Coughlin will take over as head coach in 2019.



Chiefs over Chargers -  Until we see it, we can't pick the Chargers over the Chiefs with a nine-game winning streak for Kansas City in this rivalry.   The Chargers nonetheless are playing playoff-caliber ball and look a playoff lock.    One, though, should keep an eye on Patrick Mahomes as for all his brilliance has shown disconcerting signs of sloppiness.


Texans over NY Jets -  The surprising loss to the Colts last week should not be repeated against the punchless Jets as Bill O'Brien is this close to a seasonal record for wins in his coaching career, while Deshaun Watson's comeback season should have MVP buzz circulating.


Broncos over Browns -  The poor performance at the punchless 49ers last week was disconcerting and the Broncos get an improving Browns team.   Baker Mayfield's rookie season has generated more attention than anything the Browns have seen in decades but we still think the Broncos - 23-5 lifetime vs. the Browns and on a win streak dating to 1990 - will pull off the win.


Falcons over Cardinals - One of the "Toilet Bowl" games common to the final month of a season, this showdown between two teams a combined 7-19 doesn't promise much between a dismal rookie season for Josh Rosen and a regression in Matt Ryan.


Ravens over Buccaneers -  The Ravens stumbled against the Chiefs as Lamar Jackson managed two touchdowns but only completed 13 of 24 passes, was sacked three times, and coughed up the game-deciding fumble at the end.   The Ravens get the struggling Bucs coming off blowing it against the Saints.


Titans over NY Giants -  The Giants aren't the pushovers they were earlier this season with four wins in their last five games and 147 points scored in that five-game span.   Yet the Giants have won just twice at home as they host a Titans team playing for a playoff berth and which already has manhandled two of New York's division rivals.


Dolphins over Vikings -   A public controversy erupted between Vikings coach Mike Zimmer and OC John DeFilippo with public criticism of the offense's play-calling - and the result was DeFilippo got canned after the loss at Seattle.   This illustrates a playoff pitch falling away as the Vikings host the surging Dolphins.


Redskins over Jaguars - Both teams are a mess; pick the one that's still 6-7 in this one.


Cowboys over Colts - 7-6 vs. 8-5.  Suddenly this matchup has the makings of a very competitive game with the Cowboys now facing the division title in their grasp and the Colts fighting for very realistic playoff life.   This is only Andrew Luck's second career start against the Cowboys.


Raiders over Bengals -  Collapse for the Bengals has been absolute and Jeff Driskel's unplanned rookie season has been winless in two starts.   The Raiders come in off a liberating win over the hated Steelers.


Bears over Packers -   The fitting image from the Bears' sloppy but effective defeat of the Rams is the fan wearing a Bears jersey # 46 - not for a player, but for the most famous copy of a defense ever seen - the Bears' 46 Defense was just their copy of Jerry Glanville's Gritz Blitz from the Falcons yet it caught everyone's attention in their magical 1985 title season.   The Bears are surging and get a mediocre Packers team they want to smack around after blowing it in Week One.


Lions over Bills - Here is what you need to know -  Brian Daboll is a failure as an OC and Josh Allen has been worthless in his rookie season.   Pick the struggling Lions.


Seahawks over 49ers -  The Seahawks looked in trouble earlier this season, that's not the case now, especially with a five-season winning streak over the punchless Niners.


Patriots over Steelers -  New England's shocker of a loss at Miami will doubly motivate them to crush a collapsing Steelers team that's been in freefall the last four games and which has proven it cannot beat the Patriots for anything.


Rams over Eagles -  Both teams are coming off losses, yet the Rams remain the easy favorite for the NFC's top seeds and the Eagles' playoff chances are all but gone even if they win out.   The caveat here is the Eagles have won their last five meetings with the Rams.


Saints over Panthers -  The Saints rebounded from the loss in Dallas by beating the other team that had beaten them this season, and now they get a faltering Panthers team that has lost five straight and four of its last five meetings with the Saints.



Take the season laterally as it winds down.

Wednesday, December 05, 2018

Packer It In With Three To Go





Adam Thielen - held to just 28 yards with a score - blows up at Bill Belichick

The final three weeks of the NFL season see the playoff race getting clearer - yet also murkier.





The first shocker of the weekend may well be Upset Of The Season as the Cowboys clamped down - hard - on the New Orleans Saints.   Limited to ten points the Saints had no answer for a Cowboys defense that was timing its attack on Saints receivers perfectly.   This game and the games that followed over Week 13 served as rebuttal to the striking commentary following the 54-51 Rams win over the Chiefs, commentary that portrayed 90-plus-point games as the new normal to where low-scoring defensive struggles were somehow legislated out of the game - and even conveyed a sense that high-scoring football somehow is bad for the game.   Defense and offense cycle around and always will.










Titans over Jaguars  - Tennessee got back into contention with another comeback win, this one down 16 to the Jets who'd given the Patriots a tough time the week before.    Marcus Mariota now has ten comeback wins in this, his fourth season, and he has eight comebacks from down at least two scores (in contrast to Aaron Rodgers with just seven comebacks down two-plus scores in eleven seasons even taking into account seasons truncated by injury). Even so, it's clear how much the Titans miss Delanie Walker and his explosiveness, and one certainly hopes when he comes back in 2019 that firepower is still there.

The Jaguars have lost four of the last five meetings with the Titans but are coming off an impressive grinder of a win - their first since the end of September - over the surging Indianapolis Colts.   They also have in Cody Kessler a quarterback who is just 1-8 as a starter but always showed genuine promise in his 2016 season with the hapless Browns.



Patriots over Dolphins - By now it's clear the Dolphins are a better team with Ryan Tannehill than without him.   The Dolphins have also largely held their own at home vs the Patriots - but an 8-8 split the last sixteen visits to Davie, FL isn't any trend to worry the Patriots, though the condition of the turf has at times irked Bill Belichick.   The Patriots are racing for a playoff bye and also to better flesh out their overall game; expect a competition matchup here.



Bills over NY Jets -   The Jets' debut season for Sam Darnold has gone the all-too-common path of a rough initiation for the rookie, expected to start after missing three games with a foot injury.   The Bills' quarterback situation, though, is also troubling as Josh Allen continues to struggle with two more picks at Miami.




Browns over Panthers  - By firing two assistant coaches the Panthers have signalled the season is lost at 6-6, and four more INTs by Cam Newton showcase how the Panthers have faltered with four straight losses and a turnover differential of just plus-one vs. Cleveland's eye-popping plus-ten.   Baker Mayfield's Brett Favre imitation vs. the Houston Texans was the ugly side of the rookie.





Buccaneers over Saints - Believe it or not the Bucs are 5-7 despite all their quarterbacking issues and Jameis Winston, the presumptive starter, has had success against Drew Brees.  New Orleans' loss at Dallas punctured the myth of invincibility and this is also a rematch of the 48-40 shootout, the only other loss for the Saints so far.





Lions over Cardinals -   The Lions' season is just playing out the string and it's obvious Matt Patricia now needs to start developing a successor to Matthew Stafford.   The Cardinals' rookie, though, has not played better than the veteran and the two teams are a combined minus-nine in turnover differential. 



Eagles over Cowboys -  The Cowboys are now solidly in the playoff hunt, but the Eagles aren't out of it yet, and proved that by grinding out the win over the injury-shot Redskins.  The Eagles no doubt remember losing at Lincoln Financial Field so shocking the Cowboys in their own building is added motivation for the defending Superbowl champs. 






Falcons over Packers  - The firing of Mike McCarthy wasn't unexpected; the timing though is.   For the longest time McCarthy has been the punching bag and he certainly has never been an especially gifted coach.   But attacks on him have served to hide the uncoachability of Aaron Rodgers, whose poisonous influence on the Packers has now gotten worse - with Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels rumored a strong candidate for the job it's instructive to remember Green Bay's loss at Foxboro where Rodgers sat alone and made no effort to seek out coaches, while McDaniels and Brian Hoyer were always with Tom Brady on the bench exchanging information. 

The dysfunction of the Packers gives the slumping Falcons some opportunity, but they too are a team with coaching issues, line issues, and quarterbacking issues with Matt Ryan in his eleventh season.





Texans over Colts - The last time these two met the game was a mind-blowing overtime affair.   Frank Reich's fourth-down call in overtime we doubt will be repeated, but then the Texans have gotten a lot better since then as well and are 5-1 at home vs the Colts at 2-4 on the road.   Andrew Luck's career has feasted on division opponents - 22 wins vs 27 against the rest of the league - but he's struggled against the Texans with three straight losses.



Chiefs over Ravens -  The Chiefs' firepower speaks for itself, while the Ravens have quietly clawed into the playoffs and rookie Lamar Jackson has won three straight starts, but in his three games he's already second in team rushing at 404 yards vs Alex Collins' team-leading 414.  His passing game in three games is averaging 180 yards per game - at seven yards per pass - with three INTs to two scores.   Even with that the Ravens are 13th in scoring heading to Arrowhead Stadium.   This is only the second meeting between the two since Andy Reid became Chiefs coach.






NY Giants over Redskins-  Odell Beckham showed anew with his perfunctory effort at an onside kick vs the Bears why despite his undeniable athletic prowess he's not an especially competent or reliable player, and the enabling the Giants appear to have always given him helps explain why they've faltered as badly as they have.   But here they have to face Mark Sanchez, signed to the Skins a few weeks back with Alex Smith and now Colt McCoy both out for the year.   The supreme irony involved is Sanchez reenacted his buttfumble of 2012 but this time recovered his own fumble.



Chargers over Bengals -   The rumbling that Marvin Lewis is done after this season continues and the bizarre story that con-artist coach Hue Jackson will take over is something no one involved should want. 




Jackson's incompetence as a coach was even further illustrated first on Hard Knocks and his belligerent hands-off approach to discipline and player preparation, and then by his post-firing media tour where he refused to be accountable for his struggles.   San Diego is now almost assured a playoff spot and picking off the faltering Bengals is another step.



Broncos over Forty-Niners -  Denver's resurgence is now on a three-game win streak and is seeing the emergence of running back Phillip Lindsey.   Although Case Keenum's completion percentage remains below 60% in that streak he's nonetheless posted passer rating at 95 and 99 in the last two games.   The Broncos late-season playoff contention gets a Niners team that looks like it has given up.





Raiders over Steelers -   This has mismatch written all over it - 7-4-1 vs 2-10.   But the mismatch is deceiving, for the Raiders have won three of the last five meetings with the Steelers and exploded to 35 points (and erased a 14-point gap in the fourth quarter) in this 2015 shootout.    The Raiders are also better at turnover differential than the Steelers, though it's not much to sing about at minus-5 to Pittsburgh's minus-8.   The big picture heading into this game is the Steelers are 0-for-the-season against the AFC West and the me-first culture of the team is starting to show up again with three straight poor performances, and combined with the Ravens' recent surge the Steelers now face their 1998 season collapse twenty years later.



Seahawks over Vikings -  The Seahawks, largely unnoticed, have won three straight, stand with a plus-11 turnover differential, and stand as the NFC's number five seed, and they get a Vikings squad that has lost three of its last five and showed to be weaker than advertised, and which has yet to beat Pete Carroll since he joined the Seahawks. Of course Kirk Cousins was bound to bring this result, as despite over 3,400 yards and twenty-three touchdowns this year he showed with the Redskins he isn't that good, and passer rating below 77 in two of his last three games - not to mention two other games where he didn't reach 90 in passer rating - merely illustrates further his bombastic mediocrity.

Contrast this with Russell Wilson, who has stormed past 110 in passer rating eight times this season and is above twelve average yards per pass in his last two games.



Thus is the stretch run on.

Tuesday, November 27, 2018

NFL Final Five Now On

The final five weeks of the regular season are now on, and we now can see who will make the playoffs.




Tennessee's playoff chances effectively ended in a 34-17 Monday Night loss at Houston - the seventh straight loss at Houston.   Marcus Mariota had a superb game with just one incompletion and two touchdowns, but was sacked some six times as the Titans' line play has become a serious problem in two straight division games; the Titans overall offense came under fire for its emphasis on the run as well especially when compared to Houston's offense as Deshaun Watson has raced the Texans to eight straight wins after an 0-3 start and the AFC South now looks theirs for the taking - a fitting tribute to team owner Robert McNair following his passing.






Pittsburgh remains in command of the AFC North but took a serious blow in Roethlisberger's game-ending INT at Denver, who suddenly look up to a wildcard playoff challenge.   Pittsburgh's poor performance at Jacksonville exposed the Steelers' weaknesses and their playoff history since 2010 augurs poorly for their postseason.





The Colts enter this weekend as the #6 seed in the AFC with a rare Andrew Luck win over an AFC East opponent, and their schedule gets more promising.




Cowboys over Saints -   This is a radical pick and certainly there is ample reason to pick the Saints.   But the Cowboys have begun to run some momentum for themselves and one wonders if New Orleans can keep up their recent pace; as we saw with Kansas City maintaining this pace can falter.


Texans over Browns -  Houston is flying and gets a surging Browns team in a retro-AFC Central matchup.   Cleveland is no pushover anymore and Baker Mayfield's oblique condemnation of former Browns coach Hue Douglas after the win at Cincinnati has earned a lot of positive feedback, so expect a bitterly-fought affair here.


Bills over Dolphins -  Buffalo has now won two straight, Josh Allen is now 3-3 as starter, and the Dolphins have lost six of their last eight even with Ryan Tannehill.   Buffalo thus seems to have some momentum coming into Miami.


Bears over NY Giants  - Another week, another Giant collapse, and now the Matt & Mitchell Of The Midway come to the New Meadowlands.  Giants now look to play out what's left of another lost season.


Panthers over Buccaneers - A missed FGA vs Seattle will gnaw at the Panthers as they go to Tampa Bay and look to regain momentum, this against a schizophrenic Bucs team that's 3-2 at home vs Carolina's 1-4 road record.


Falcons over Ravens - This is a tricky pick with the Falcons' playoff chances gone and those of the Ravens still in play, but Lamar Jackson's rawness as a quarterback has been on display in his two wins as starter; his completion percentage was good, but he again ran more than is wise and just 25 passes (14 completions) and a passer rating below 60 are a bad start as a quarterback as they get a Falcons team that's 3-3 at home but who may be in line for some coaching staff changes after the season.


Packers over Cardinals -  The season has become a train wreck for the Cardinals, this even amid the increasingly open dysfunction that is the Packers - and for which the inept Aaron Rodgers still is not getting much blame.   Pick the home team of a bad matchup.






Colts over Jaguars - Speaking of train wrecks, the Jaguars benched Blake Bortles, fired their offensive coordinator, and are now on a seven-game losing streak - and are minus Leonard Fournette after his brawl in the loss at Buffalo.   The Colts continue their surge in this one.


Broncos over Bengals -   First a bad loss to the Browns, now Andy Dalton is out for the season.   The upshot is new starter Jeff Driskel played respectably in trying to lead a comeback so a Bengals offense in need of spark may get some - this amid the bizarre story that coach Marvin Lewis will retire to the Bengals front office and ex-Browns washout Hue Jackson - he of the media tour refusing to be accountable for his disastrous time in Cleveland, he of the belligerently hands-off approach to coaching as displayed on Hard Knocks - would become the new Bengals head coach.   The Broncos nonetheless come in with momentum and the playoffs to play for.


Rams over Lions  -  The Lions now have nothing beyond salvaging wins to play for, but the Rams have a surging season to run to the potential NFC Championship matchup.


Chiefs over Raiders -  We knew Jon Gruden's first year back would be a struggle, but we may have underestimated how much struggle would be encountered.   Certainly nothing Gruden has done warrants confidence going forward, though getting more of "his guys" into the Raiders is needed before one can judge his program a flop.   His latest issue is a surging Chiefs team coming off a bitter loss in the highest-scoring Monday Night game ever - a game that illustrated a disturbing commonality to Andy Reid quarterbacks, a propensity to freelance and rely on athleticism and arm strength rather than smarter play.   Patrick Mahomes' rookie surge nonetheless should produce another win here.


Titans over NY Jets -  The Titans realistically are out of the playoffs and can only salvage a winning record for the season, and they get a home date with the inept New York Jets to begin their stretch run followed by the Jaguars, NY Giants, and Redskins before a rematch with the Colts.   The Jets meanwhile get Buffalo, Houston, Green Bay, and the Patriots, and a potential 4-12 season.




The most historic meeting between the Patriots and Vikings remains 1994's comeback stunner in the first year of Robert Kraft's ownership of what had once been considered the laughingstock of football; 2018 marks Kraft's 25th season as team owner and laughingstock has been replaced with controller of the game


Patriots over Vikings - The Patriots reacted to the rout at Tennessee by getting back to basics and emphasizing a mixture of running the ball with spreading out the passes more.   They now get a Vikings team that's a playoff contender but whose weakness lays in quarterback Kirk Cousins, always a tease but never one who delivers when it matters most.


Seahawks over 49ers -   Suddenly all the momentum for Nick Mullens is gone with four INTs in his last two starts and the Seahawks now beginning to build momentum with two straight wins and six of their last nine; they've also scored at least 27 points in five of their last six games.


Chargers over Steelers  -  The Steelers look in trouble with back-to-back bad performances - and seemingly increasing blame-assignation by Ben Roethlisberger for poor performances -  and now they get a Chargers team that rebounded from a bitter loss to the Broncos with a 45-point slaughter of the Cardinals highlighted by Philip Rivers' league-record streak of completions in a single game; the irony is it was the first time since putting up 38 vs the Browns that San Diego exceeded 25 points scored.   The Steelers' problems of late actually showed signs in their inability to score more than 23 points in three of their last four games and seven turnovers in their last two.


Eagles over Redskins -  While not the Superbowl power they were last season the Eagles ended their recent skid and did so with a remarkable comeback, and now they get a Redskins team that's lost its last two games and three of the last four.



So does the final five-week stretch begin.

Thursday, November 22, 2018

The Suffocation That Is Trump Hatred

This piece examines the preposterous analogy of Trump to Hitler through Christopher Browning's idiotic piece The Suffocation Of Democracy,noting how Browning gets everything about the misbegotten Weimar Republic wrong.

Tuesday, November 20, 2018

2018 Season's Dumbest Quote Illustrates Racing Disconnection

The Miami 400 weekend saw a lot of news conferences and also saw the usual online exchanges involving NASCAR writers.    Matt Weaver of Autoweek has emerged as one of the most upfront writers in racing and also among the most belligerent advocates of "shaking up the schedule."  

On his Twitter account Weaver answered a respondent with what is singularly the dumbest quote of the season -


It's almost like faster cars are faster. This is how CART ended up with the Hanford Device. I think so much of what drags NASCAR down even marginally would be cured with the schedule. You can't sail away at Martinsville or Sonoma. Slow cars get in the way.


First, he's wrong about cars not being able to sail away on short tracks or road courses.   It happens very often and has throughout history.

Second, that he's citing lapped cars getting in the way as some kind of competitive positive only illustrates the net negative of short track and road racing - it's less nose-to-nose competition than surviving lapped traffic or staying out of the sticks in the case of road races.

Third, what sparked CART's Hanford wing was the success of IRL's bulkier racecar bodies in making the draft stronger and thus opening up passing.   This led to a renaissance for Indycars with both bodies producing superior competition with both approaches.

Finally, what has dragged down NASCAR is not curable by changing the schedule.   Short tracks and road courses are by any objective definition weaker competition to superspeedways, weaker competition often in weaker markets, and with most short tracks there are weaker crowds - overlooked by those who advocate more short tracks for NASCAR's major league series is that the short tracks the Winston Cup, Busch-Xfinity, and Truck series already have do not draw any better than the superspeedways and actually draw noticeably less.

Iowa Speedway is repeatedly cited as a track that deserves Winston Cup races, and yet NASCAR which owns the track has found it can't justify having Cup there.   Like all the tracks it doesn't sell out the dates it has and has never drawn enough to seriously consider Cup.

The entire issue illustrates the disconnection that exists in NASCAR.   The advocates for more short tracks do not genuinely think they are better racing because there is no objective measure supporting such an opinion.   On the contrary, the eighty most competitive races in Winston Cup history involve seventy-seven at Daytona, Talladega, Charlotte, Pocono, and Michigan, one each at Darlington and Atlanta (both in 1982) - and one at Bristol (1991).   Most short track races cannot approach the big ovals in competitive depth and road courses will never be much in the way of competitive racing.

The reason for this misguided advocacy is myopic frustration at the lack of passing on the bigger ovals and a ridiculous sense the "cookie cutter tracks" must somehow be punished.   The real issue - lack of downforce, excessive power, and no drafting effect - for twenty years was addressed the wrong away and now is finally being addressed the right way.  

Cross-promotion between the big tracks and local bullrings appears to be coming and is welcome.   Dumbing down the major leagues with more short tracks will never be the answer, and fans and writers need to start embracing big tracks again - especially after a Miami 400 fundamentally better than any short track.

Monday, November 19, 2018

Thanks For Nothing Week Starring Aaron Rodgers

The NFL enters Thanksgiving weekend and there was no shortage of turkeys exposed as such by the end of the Monday Night affair.





Aaron Rodgers failed to deliver yet again as the Seahawks ended a three-game slump vs. the sinking (now 4-5-1) Packers.   Rodgers' poor fourth quarter performances have been known for most of this decade, and his losses to New England and Seattle have become especially illustrative of Rodgers' fundamental weakness as a quarterback - against New England he completed just two passes in the fourth quarter while his final five drives against the Seahawks produced one field goal - lowlighted by Rodgers' pathetic claim that the ball stuck in his hands at the end. 

And yet one is hard-pressed to find any significant mainstream criticism of him - the blame goes more to coach Mike McCarthy, who certainly has proven a subpar coach, but the biggest issue with the Packers is Rodgers.

A curious subplot is the rumor that the Packers want to hire Josh McDaniels as their new head coach - an unlikely scenario given McDaniels returned to New England at the last minute for a reason that would not seem to lend itself to going to Green Bay - especially given Rodgers' seeming refusal to take coaching.



********


Even bigger turkeys were the results for........

- The Titans , 38-10 losers at Indianapolis and Marcus Mariota knocked out with another elbow issue; so continues Andrew Luck's career-long win streak against Tennessee and the Colts are now second in the AFC South though two games behind Houston after the Texans' second-straight escape job off a missed FGA, this one at the Redskins.

- The Falcons, losers to the Cowboys and all but done for any playoff hope.

- The Eagles, shot to pieces by the Saints putting the Super in Superdome.



- The Panthers, falling short at Detroit on a missed two-point try and thus not advancing forward as a team.

- The Chargers, losers to the slumping Broncos and thus helping Vance Joseph potentially save his job and thus failing again to advance to the next level, never reached in Philip Rivers' career; making it worse was the loss of defensive tackle Corey Liuget for the season.



- The Cardinals, with another Josh Allen game falling short, this time to the going-nowhere Raiders.



- The Jaguars, up 16-0 to a Steelers team exposed by them - and then losing on a final-seconds touchdown run by Ben "Mister Interception" Roethlisberger.


- The Bengals, losing to rookie Lamar Jackson who had almost fewer passing yards (150) than rushing yards (117) - a bad sign for a quarterback.

- The Buccaneers, their quarterback controversy only getting worse in a bitter 38-35 loss at the Giants.

- The Vikings, as Kirk Cousins got exposed by the Bears.




So with that we look toward Thanksgiving weekend -


Bears over Lions - The Bears have a lot of momentum this side of New Orleans and LA and the Lions simply cannot generate enough offense or make enough stops; Matt Patricia's first year is the kind of rough initiation common throughout history.


Cowboys over Redskins - Speaking of momentum, the Cowboys now have some and the Redskins have to go forward without Alex Smith; we doubt they can.


Saints over Falcons - Atlanta in essence lost the season in the last two games.


Eagles over NY Giants - The slumping Eagles have long controlled the Giants good bad or indifferent. The Giants come in with some momentum, especially from Saquan Barkley, so expect a tighter than usual contest.


Jaguars over Bills -   The Jaguars blew it and may trade loudmouth Jalen Ramsey after the season.   They go to Buffalo, itself in worse shape in yet another lost season.


Browns over Bengals - Whatever momentum the Bengals had earlier this season is gone, and the Browns come in with a sense of momentum, despite the team's foolish idea to interview Condoleeza Rice for the head coach job.


Patriots over NY Jets - The loss to the Titans caused a lot of ridiculous second-guessing in New England media and fan circles, and while there is definite need for improved play all around, the Patriots have proven the best team in the league at responding to such setbacks.   They get their first game against a Jets team that's in the bottom third on both sides of the ball and whose star of the future may no longer have much future.


Raiders over Ravens - The Raiders ground out a needed win over the hapless Cardinals and now they get another rookie quarterback and Lamar Jackson.  His debut was decent and led the Ravens to a win over a Bengals team they've struggled against.   But having just 150 yards in the air and 117 rushing is not a good balance for a quarterback.   The Raiders have had recent successes against the Ravens even though they're not in much shape for any contention.


Buccanners over Forty-Niners -  Nick Mullens presently leads the Niners in yards per pass and his superb effort in his debut hasn't been forgotten.   The Niners travel across country to a schizophrenic Bucs team that's 3-7, dead last in points allowed, eighth in scoring, and can't get any positive momentum out of either of the two quarterbacks involved.   Jameis Winston remains a weaker quarterback than Ryan Fitzpatrick, yet against the Giants threw for 199 yards and two scores replacing Fitzpatrick after he threw three picks.   The Bucs in putting up 35 points last week may have some momentum going into this one.


Panthers over Seahawks - Losing at Detroit on a missed two-point try is the kind of galling loss no team accepts, and the Panthers get a Seahawks team that's been better on the road than it has been over the years but isn't all that good this season overall. 


Chargers over Cardinals - San Diego is no doubt red-faced at losing to the Broncos, and the hapless Cardinals come to LA still unable to establish any momentum.


Dolphins over Colts -  Andrew Luck is unbeaten to the Tennessee Titans after last week's massacre but his record against AFC East teams is dismal, and the Dolphins have shown enough to be considered a 10-6 team.


Steelers over Broncos -  A much-needed Denver win last week won't be enough against a Steelers team that's not as good as advertised but is still stronger than most.


Vikings over Packers - It's another road game which means Green Bay is in trouble, plus the Vikings are coming off a bad loss to the Bears, which means they'll want to smash the next opponent.   


Texans over Titans - Mixed on this one because the Titans lost Marcus Mariota earlier this season then responded by beating the Texans and the Titans have been sneakily resilient despite being down multiple starters, plus Houston's last two wins were outright escape jobs, a sign they're losing momentum in their lengthening winning streak.   But one is hesitant to trust Blaine Gabbert if he in fact plays and Mariota is banged up again if he plays.   Plus Deshaun Watson is the real deal.   If nothing else this game could be a nailbiter.



Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.

Sunday, November 18, 2018

The Eye-Popping End To NASCAR's 2018 Season


NASCAR's 2018 season produced the most surprising moments seen in years and the Ford 400 weekend ended the season in appropriate fashion with an eye-popping affair won by Joey Logano.







Among the stories of 2018 is the disbanding of Barney Vissar's #78 team - and a striking aspect of the team's closure may have been overlooked in most analyses, as the indication is Joe Gibbs Racing vastly raised the price Furniture Row Racing had to pay to maintain its equipment deal with JGR - a practice JGR itself anticipated in 1995 when it won three races and began building its own engine shop to get off the Hendrick Motorsports engine dole before Hendrick - as that team had done to Bob Whitcomb Racing five years earlier - cut them off for outrunning his house cars. 

If this is the case it's the kind of political backstabbing that is gross for motorsports, a sport where inter-team cooperation is a time-honored act of professionalism - as the late Chris Economaki had noted over his career, the sportsmen team owners who fielded cars at Indianapolis were indeed sportsman before the influx of the more ruthless types that permeated Indycars in the 1970s and onward.   It is also bad business for JGR which drew immense engineering benefit from its deal with Furniture Row; in the three seasons FRR was part of the JGR effort, JGR won 29 races entering Miami alongside Furniture Row's sixteen wins.


The upshot is Truex and Furniture Row got the last laugh, beating all of JGR's Toyotas - notably the car Truex will drive in 2019, the #19 now vacated by Drive For Diversity washout Daniel Suarez - and slicing it out with Logano in some of the most spirited racing of the season.   The lead officially changed nine times in the last 120 laps, but that stat is an undercount as Truex and Logano - their ugly Martinsville set-to got replayed on numerous occasions - sidedrafted for the lead for numerous laps.   That they raced each other clean after Truex's angry trash talk after Martinsville was a surprise no doubt to many - and a sign of professionalism the sport has needed in greater quality and quantity.






Professionalism on display at Miami was a strikingly overlooked but appropriate salute to the driver considered NASCAR's greatest.   David Pearson was the professionals' professional and his passing before the weekend made for the saddest of goodbyes.   Here we see his 104th Winston Cup win, the 1979 Southern 500 subbing for injured Dale Earnhardt in Rod Osterlund's Chevrolet.   


In racing as in life there are always nits to pick and Monday Morning Quarterbacking or Crew Chiefing is inevitable.   The Xfinity Series championship was won by Tyler Reddick but the points as tabulated without a playoff format show Daniel Hemric as the  "true" champion.    The Cup side has now run fifteen "Chase" playoffs and this is the ninth time the wrong champion was crowned as Kyle Busch wins the 2018 title based on the season-long format - as well as given his eight wins, tied with Kevin Harvick's eight wins, the most of anyone this season.   Aric Almirola - fifth in "Chase" points - finishes 12th in the "true" title.

That the Chase format has missed the boat so often helps explain why the sport's popularity has shrunk as it has.   This 400 is the closest the sport has yet come to recapturing the beloved 1992 Dixie 500 championship chase energy, and there has never been need for a playoff format, long proven unworkable for motorsports.


*****


There was some grumbling online about this race being "the end of an era" with the NA18D draft-duct package coming in 2019 - the irony is the spirited slicing for the lead showed why the sport needs the NA18D package; the fight for the lead would have been even more epic with the draft kicking in.

There was also the expected questioning of NASCAR honcho Steve Phelps about the 2020 schedule and the potential for more short tracks and a reduction of the "cookie cutter" big tracks - seemingly no one as usual remembering the short tracks the three major league divisions now have do not draw well enough to justify any relevant schedule change - weaker completion, markets, and crowds, this is what the short tracks in fact are.  This race also illustrated the fundamental superiority of superspeedways with intense racing without the gratuitous slam-bang stupidity illustrated at Martinsville.


*****


As always happens in racing there was the majority who have little to nothing worth remembering from this season.   Brad Daugherty's team, Richard Petty Motorsports, Wood Brothers Racing - naturally affected more than everyone else by David Pearson's passing - are three teams whose 2018 went nowhere.   Chase Elliott and Austin Dillon won this year but their teammates were irrelevant throughout, as was Chevrolet in general despite the four wins and strong efforts by Kyle Larson.  The Camaro was quite simply a poor racecar and Chevrolet's program is screwed up and in need of a major cultural change - one remembers Andy Petree's earlier missive about lack of inter-team cooperation in the Chevrolet camp.   Also completely screwed up is the Roush team, winless and little better than garbage from the Daytona 500 onward.

For those teams, 2018 was a failure - and 2019 is in need of improvement for them and for a sport in general that nonetheless took an important step forward in 2018.

Monday, November 12, 2018

2018 Playoff Push Now On


The NFL hits Week Eleven and now the playoff push begins.




The Tennessee Titans took a huge playoff step by routing the Patriots.   The game showcased how strong Mike Vrabel is as head coach and also showcased his team is better than generally given credit for - much was made of the team's low volume stats on offense, ignoring situational execution has been stout; the volume stats argument has also gone out the window with solid point production the last three games and Marcus Mariota's five games above 90 in passer rating - and above 118 the last two games.

The Titans were crushed at the line of scrimmage in the 2017 playoff game and thus made a point not to let that be repeated.   Vrabel also worked to take away Tom Brady's first read, which illustrated a periodic failing of Brady - his stubbornness in latching onto a binky receiver instead of opening to other pass-catchers; more than a few times Chris Hogan (held without a target for now three straight games) was open and Brady refused to throw to him, instead forcing to Julian Edelman and now his newest binky Josh Gordon. (1)  

Such issues are correctable for the Patriots and this match may portend a playoff showdown between the two.



Seahawks over Packers - The Dolphins proved less than expected at Green Bay, but the Packers remain a mediocre outfit still looking for its first road win.   We doubt they'll get it at Seattle, now in must-win mode after a bitter loss at LA.


Steelers over Jaguars -  The collapse of the Jaguars has been stunning, this even as Leonard Fournette has returned.   The Jaguars offense showed noticeable improvement with his return but they face an uphill effort against a surging Steelers team that put up 52 against a better Panthers outfit.


NY Giants over Buccaneers -  Ugh.   Two terrible teams.   Pick the home team.


Bengals over Ravens -  The Bengals fired their defensive coordinator and former Browns flameout Hue Jackson, successful as Bengals offensive coordinator in 2014-15, is returning to work with Marvin Lewis.   The Ravens meanwhile are reported to be done with John Harbaugh after this season.  The Ravens thus enter the second half of the season as a lameduck outfit that has long struggled against Andy Dalton, no doubt wanting to smash the Ravens after being humiliated by the Saints.


Cowboys over Falcons -  Both teams are enigmas - what are you going to get here?   Atlanta's embarrassment by the Browns and Dallas' stunner at Philly leaves one scratching his head.   The Cowboys may have some momentum here.   A coaching staff area to keep an eye on is the Falcons' offensive staff as two years of Steve Sarkisian has been strikingly inconsistent and hasn't seemed to improve,


Panthers over Lions -  The Lions have lost twice at home in four games and lost three straight overall, and get a Panthers squad no doubt angry at getting crushed by Pittsburgh.   There right now is no evidence of improvement as the season under first-year coach Matt Patricia progresses - this has been especially graphic in the 55 points scored in Detroit's last three games, just 18 per game vs the 30-plus scored against Green Bay and Miami.


Texans over Redskins - The Redskins are better than expected, but the Texans once again evoke the memory of the Oilers at their apex in six straight wins, 26 points per game in that stretch, and plus-four in turnover differential.  Deshaun Watson has quietly broken 100 in passer rating this season vs Alex Smith's still-respectable 90. 


Colts over Titans - Andrew Luck has yet to lose to the Titans and the Colts have won three straight, are plus-three in turnover differential, and have averaged 33 points scored per game for six straight, so overcoming that hurtle is next on Tennessee's list.   Colt-Titan games have usually been bitterly-fought affairs, and 2017's matches saw the Titans erase two-score deficits both times, so expect fireworks here.


Raiders over Cardinals -  Two cellar-dwellars.   The Raiders' only edge is Derek Carr is more trustworthy a quarterback with a 93 passer rating vs Josh Rosen's 67.


Chargers over Broncos - San Diego is almost a lock for a wildcard spot and they get a slumping Broncos squad reportedly ready to fire their head coach.


Saints over Eagles -    The Eagles are now in trouble after a surprising loss to the Cowboys as they travel to the red-hot Superdome.   Can anyone keep up with the Saints?   Right now we doubt it.


Bears over Vikings -   The Bears are one of the most-improved teams in the league and they host the Vikings, a showdown for the NFC North.   Kirk Cousins and Mitch Trubisky have combined for 36 touchdowns; the Bears have the edge in points, points allowed, and turnover differential, and have won three straight while the Vikings have won four of their last five.


Chiefs over Rams -  These are two of the three superpowered offenses of the league; the edge the Chiefs enjoy is Patrick Mahomes looks more explosive and has had to play from behind a little more than Jared Goff.  Expect the combined score to exceed 70 in this game.



Mass Migration And "Globalist" Incoherence

Mass migrations have been a net drain on legitimate nations and illustrate the incoherence of globalism.

The Sham Of Progressivism

From "cultural appropriation" to the myth of white supremacy to Jim Acosta's spastic idiocy to identity stupidity to the hypocrisy of whining about campaign contributions showcases that "progressivism" is a scam.

Wednesday, November 07, 2018

Tuesday, November 06, 2018

NFL Gets Bo Dereked In Week Ten


So the NFL hits Week Ten and the playoff race now is underway.






First we look back at New England's win over Green Bay.   This game demonstrated not only that Tom Brady is the better quarterback, it showed how overrated Aaron Rodgers really is.   He completed just two passes in the fourth quarter, a 7-yarder to Aaron Jones and an 8-yarder to Devante Adams, and was sacked twice while running twice for eight yards.   Rodgers' reputation for being a frontrunner and not a true great continues - he is now 7-36 when trailing by at least two scores, and Brady as usual played better vs. Rodgers playing worse as the game went on.

A key aspect of this disparity has been addressed in a few circles where it is noted Rodgers seems always to sits alone on the bench without conversation with any coaches - as though he's made up his mind how to play the game without wanting input from others.






Also noteworthy was the Houston Texans' escape job in Denver on a missed field goal, the ultimate heartbreaker for Case Keenum and also, despite comments to the contrary by John Elway, perhaps the deathknell for coach Vance Joseph as both the surging Texans and slumping Broncos enter their Bye week





Marcus Mariota delivered Tennessee's first win since Week Four by overcoming two early turnovers to pass for 243 yards, two scores, and a passer rating of 119 - his fifth game of 80 or higher this year, four of them 90 or higher.   Dak Prescott meanwhile continues to regress.


Panthers over Steelers - Both teams won last week and both are looking to surge, but Carolina has shown the greater overall improvement of the two.






Saints over Bengals - The Saints and Drew Brees keep storming forward, and now get an inconsistent Bengals squad that nonetheless has won four of the last five meetings with the Saints including 2014's game vs Brees.   Defensively neither team is all that good, both in the bottom-two in passing yardage allowed while the Saints unnoticed lead the league in fewest rushing yards allowed.   Where the Bengals have an edge is turnover differential at plus-4 vs. New Orleans at zero.


Patriots over Titans -  The last seven meetings between these two teams have all been Patriots wins - they met twice in 2003 and both games - 38-30 in Week Five and 17-14 in the Divisional Playoffs - were competitively compelling affairs; Steve McNair's bomb in the playoff bounced off Drew Bennett's fingers, thus ending that game.    Vince Young put up a fight in 2006 and the Patriots led only 26-23 before putting that game away 40-23, but since then the games have been grossly one-sided; only 2017's playoff match was even moderately competitive as Marcus Mariota clawed to a 7-0 lead before the Patriots put the game away.

This history thus augurs against the Titans, who've nonetheless shown real fight under first-year coach and former Patriots linebacker/part-time tight end Mike Vrabel, notably in the Monday Nighter at Dallas. 


Colts over Jaguars -  The Colts have now won two straight and get a Jaguars team that has lost four straight and where discipline appears to have disappeared - a shocking regression for any Tom Coughlin team either as a coach or a GM.   The faltering of Blake Bortles raises doubts about his viability going forward.


Chiefs over Cardinals -  The Chiefs keep on winning and look more like the Vikings of twenty years ago with each passing win. 


Buccaneers over Redskins -  The Bucs hung tough vs the Panthers last week but it wasn't enough; now they get a Redskins team humiliated by the Falcons last week; we doubt the Bucs will finish with a winning record but they can start salvaging something.   What is clear is Jameis Winston is done in Tampa Bay with a now-proven inability to make good decisions.


Bears over Lions -   Matthew Stafford was sacked ten times last week and thus does offensive line trouble add to a season threatening to fall to 6-10 or maybe worse in Matt Patricia's first year.   In just about every aspect - turnover differential, points scored, points allowed - the Bears are well ahead of the Lions, making Patricia's debut season the kind of rough "welcome to the NFL moment" that's so common.


Falcons over Browns -  The first game for interim coach Gregg Williams was competitive for only the first half, and now the Browns get a Falcons team that got a needed rout last week.   Momentum hasn't arrived for the Browns and we doubt it will begin this week.


Jets over Bills - Buffalo's quarterback situation has become a disaster and 2-14 now looks likely; this week they get a struggling Jets squad; calls to bench rookie Sam Darnold make no sense as he has to weather through the entire season first. 







The first jaw-dropper of Week 9 was the spectacular debut of second-year player and practice-squad callup Nick Mullins  


Chargers over Raiders -  The other jaw-dropper of the Niners-Raiders game was how abysmal the Raiders were with terrible play from Derek Carr and the popular belief that the Raiders players have quit on coach Jon Gruden; even belief that the Raiders will buy out his $100 million contract has circulated.    With the Chargers coming off a tighter-than-expected win at Seattle it won't get any better for the beleagured Raiders, perhaps the biggest disappointment of the season.


Rams over Seahawks -  The Seahawks are clearly no longer a playoff threat and they visit LA with the Rams smarting over a bitter loss at New Orleans. 


Dolphins over Packers - The Packers got exposed as a team that lacks toughness; they were looking to avoid contact on both sides of the ball for a striking amount of the game at Foxboro.  Now they host a Dolphins team that pulled a surprise in beating the Jets despite missing Ryan Tannehill and are an unnoticed 5-4 with a plus-five turnover differential vs. Green Bay's minus-one.    Aaron Rodgers has regressed back into the sloppy freelancing quarterback after being forced to play Bradyball in Week One vs the Bears. 


Eagles over Cowboys - The Eagles are struggling at 4-4 and coming off their bye week, but they get a mediocre Cowboys squad whose coach has been overdue for replacement despite Jerry Jones' inability to admit a guy he trained isn't capable.


49ers over Giants -   The collapse of the NY Giants continues.  We expect Nick Mullins to keep on keeping on vs the inept Giants.



Ten becomes Week Ten this weekend.

Monday, November 05, 2018

The Scam Of Matthew Shephard As A Martyr

In a preposterous gesture, Matthew Shephard was laid to rest at the National Cathedral as a gesture portraying him as a victim of a murder that was instigated by social repression over his homosexuality.   The two problems - his lifestyle serves no social or biological purpose, and he was killed in a drug deal gone bad - a fact homosexual intellectuals insist on denying. 

The gesture also strives to prevent recognition that "hate crimes" are a form of entitlement - conveying social superiority based on identity.

Thursday, November 01, 2018

The Border Controversy Fraud

The illegal immigration "debate" is not a debate, it's a sham.   Defenders of illegal immigrants refuse to admit the very real and open social costs of illegals and instead insist on not enforcing the law. They also falsify what the 14th Amemdment says in response to Pesident Trump's executive order ending the practice of letting "anchor babies" become automatic citizens.

Glossing Over Islamic Aggression


"In a small, crowded conference room at Georgetown University, around 40 people gathered to hear two academics from a Muslim background - Enes Bayrakli and Farid Hafez - discuss the topic of “Islamophobia” in Europe."

Then an Iranian woman in the audience asked what the difference is between "Islamophobia" and the aggression preached in Islamic communities - "How do you distinguish between Islamophobia and those who are legitimately afraid of a certain kind of Islam that is taking over their countries?"

So Much For Whitey Bulger


So ends one of the most fascinating and destructive stories in the annals of US organized crime.

What makes the rampage of the Boston, MA underworld personified and long led by James "Whitey" Bulger such a compelling history is that it was actively enabled by the FBI and by the US Congress, in the person of John William McCormack.   McCormack began his association with the Boston underworld and the FBI as an attorney during Prohibition representing the Gustin Gang, bootleggers from Boston.   When elected to the US House he began looking out for the Massachusetts State Senate seat to which young Billy Bulger was elected. 

McCormack also looked out for Billy's older brother, Whitey.  When Whitey served in the USAF he was court-martialed and openly told his accusers that McCormack would keep him out of trouble.   Whitey began male prostitution activities as a teen and in the 1950s went to prison after a string of bank robberies; McCormack worked to lessen Whitey's hardship in his nine years in prison.   After getting out of prison in March 1965 Whitey was given a no-show job as a janitor for Suffolk County, and before retiring in January 1971 McCormack instructed FBI boss J. Edgar Hoover to develop Whitey as an informant.

A month later Whitey, who by this point was a member of the Killeen Gang of Boston, was with a fellow gangster, Billy O'Sullivan, and O'Sullivan shot Buddy Roache, a member of the Mullen gang of Boston; Whitey was never indicted because when police tried to obtain arrest warrants they were rejected by the South Boston District Court - this thanks to Billy Bulger.

The FBI in 1961, on orders of then-new Attorney General Robert Kennedy - this to cover up his father Joe's long criminal career as well as his own relationships with gangsters such as Chicago's Sam Giancana - began developing informants to take down the Mafia.   In Boston agent Harold Paul "H. Paul" Rico was in charge of this task.   Rico was an FBI agent but he walked, talked, and acted like a gangster, and took a personal hatred of another Boston area gang, the gang of the McLaughlin brothers.   Rico's treachery was first shown when gangster Ronny Dermody, who'd once been arrested by Rico, went to him for help; Rico set him up ostensibly for a meeting - instead Rico sent rival gangster Buddy McLean to kill Dermody, then shielded McLean in his house in Belmont, MA.

Rico developed the Flemmi brothers - Vincent James "Jimmy The Bear" Flemmi and his younger brother Steve - as informants when they were apprentice gangsters working for the Bennett brothers, specifically Edward "Wimpy" Bennett.   Rico also developed psychopathic gangster Joe "The Animal" Barboza as an informant, and in March 1965 they killed minor mobster Edward "Teddy" Deegan; Rico made sure Barboza and Jimmy The Bear would not be indicted, and Barboza fingered four rival gangsters with Deegan's murder - the result was four men framed by the FBI spent some thirty years in prison, and it wasn't until the late 1990s that the FBI was exposed as sending to jail four innocent men to cover up for snitches of theirs - among the agents perpetuating the coverup was Robert Mueller, presently investigating President Trump and getting nowhere with it.

By 1972 with gang war raging, Whitey arranged a meeting with infamous Boston hitman Johnny Martorano, who was with one of the strongest gangs in the area, based in Winter Hill in Somerville.  Martorano was friends with Howie Winter, the gang's leader, and he felt he owed a favor to Billy O'Sullivan.   As a result, Whitey was brought into the Winter Hill Gang.  In this time of the early 1970s Whitey was finally developed into an official FBI informant working for John Joseph Connolly, who'd spent his life getting favors from Billy Bulger and who apprenticed with Rico. 

Connolly now served as point man for protecting Whitey Bulger, and in the 1970s the Winter Hill Gang became involved in extortions, race-fixing, and sports betting among whatever racket they decided to become involved with.  Their strength increased in 1974 - Steve Flemmi years earlier had been allowed to escape prosecution by the FBI, helping him move to Montreal under an alias.   In 1974 the FBI brought him back to Boston to continue as an FBI snitch.   Steve Flemmi was soon taking up with teenage girls such as Deborah "Debbi" Davis, who worked for a famed Boston-area dealer in stolen items, and he also had a wife in Marion Hussey, but it was her daughter Deborah who bore brunt of sexual aggression by Steve; also imposed upon by Steve was Debbi Davis' younger sister Michelle.   Michelle would die of an overdose around 2006, but Debbi was murdered by Whitey and Steve when she became tired of being part of Steve's harem; Debbi had a cousin, Eva "Liz" McDonough, who was girlfriend of gang member Nick Giso; when she demanded answers from Steve about her cousin's disappearance Whitey and Steve tried to set up her murder - and missed.

Whitey-involved murders rampaged in the Boston area in the 1970s.   A rival gang led by Al "Indian Al" Angeli and his brother "Indian Joe" Notarangeli was killed in the 1973-74 period - this as a paid favor to Mafia boss Gennaro "Gerry" Angiulo, and at least one innocent bystander was gunned down by mistake in this gang conflict.  A former friend of Whitey, Tommy King, was murdered and later that same night King's friend, Francis "Buddy" Leonard, was killed.  Club owner Richie Castucci had participated in the gang's sport betting operation, but when the gang hid two of its members out in New York City, Castucci - himself an FBI rat - told his Buearu pals; Connolly got word to the gang and at the end of December 1976 Castucci was murdered; Connolly covered up the murder by claiming it to be the work of the Mafia - "Winter Hill doesn't kill like that."

When Anthony "Fat Tony" Ciulla, the Winter Hill Gang's master race-fixer, was indicted in the late-1970s Zip Connolly and the similarly corrupt head of the Bureau's Organized Crime Strike Force in Boston, Jeremiah O'Sullivan, made sure to cut Whitey and Steve Flemmi out of indictment - this as everyone else went down. 

Their master hitman Johnny Martorano was tipped to the pending indictment and fled to Florida, sustained there by Whitey and the FBI as an ace-in-the-hole.   Zip Connolly meanwhile fought to protect Whitey when the FBI tried to terminate him as an informant; this stemmed from MA State Police surveillance efforts continually frustrated because Connolly was tipping Whitey to them.  Connolly and Jeremiah O'Sullivan wanted Whitey and Steve as informant to justify a massive bugging operation at Gennaro Angiulo's headquarters on Prince Street in Boston.

The operation led to Angiulo's 1983 arrest, but in the meantime Whitey directly instigated or helped instigate other murders.   Another Connolly informant, a flamboyant drug lord named Louie Litif, killed one of his dealers and a witnessing bartender; Connolly covered up this murder and this was established when his letter to the insurance company of the bartender's family was presented as evidence in his later racketeering trial.   Litif was then killed himself by Whitey with help from another gangster, Brian Halloran, who himself would be killed at Whitey's behest in 1982. 

Part of the reason for Halloran's murder is he'd been involved in the murder or Roger Wheeler, a businessman who'd purchased the gaming company World Jai Alai, that had been owned by businessman John Callahan.   Callahan was ousted because he was hanging out with Winter Hill members and had been quietly giving money to them.   Wheeler retained as head of security former FBI agent H. Paul Rico, but soon discovered he was being skimmed.   He accelerated his investigation when one of his cashiers, Peggy Westcoat, who may have known who was involved, was murdered with her boyfriend in 1980.   Whitey, Steve, and Rico commissioned Martorano to kill Wheeler and thus keep them all out of jail.   Not until 2004 would Rico finally face indictment for instigating Wheeler's murder.

In 1980 a gang that included cops robbed a Medford, MA bank and stole what turned out to Angiulo cash.   The leader, Arthur "Bucky" Barrett, returned the money to Angiulo upon learning who it belonged to, but in 1983 Whitey and Steve grabbed him, extorted $60,000 from him, then killed him.   He was buried in the basement of a house the two owned in South Boston, and Barrett's two sons never recovered, killing themselves years later.  Around that same time Whitey and Steve killed Deborah Hussey, Steve's stepdaughter, because she'd confessed to Marion Hussey that she'd been fellating Steve; she was buried in the same basement. 

Then in 1984 Whitey got involved in drug running, though a weed importer named Joe Murray.  His gang tried to smuggle seven tons worth of Whitey-supplied weapons to the Irish Republican Army, but their boats were grabbed.  The DEA, unaware of the corruption of the FBI, revealed they were tipped by a gang member, John McIntyre.  Upon learning this from the Bureau, Whitey killed him.

Whitey's protection didn't end with the FBI - Boston's largest paper The Boston Globe effectively covered up for Whitey, claiming him to be innocent and repeating the line "he kept the drugs out of Southie."   Only in 1988 did the Globe acknowledge he had a "special relationship" with the FBI.  Billy Bulger, meanwhile, had become as Mass Senate President the de facto governor of the state and steered money his way while working to keep Whitey and others out of trouble; he'd even tried to get Zip Connolly appointed as Boston Police Commssioner, and when Whitey telephoned him Billy refused to inform police of such calls, despite being required to do so as an officer of the court.  Billy also stonewalled a grand jury in 2001 about helping his brother, a federal fugitive.  He finally testified before Congress under a grant of immunity, the same deal Whitey's fellow gangsters got before testifying, and even then lied in claiming ignorance.

In 1990 after busting wannabe Mafia boss "Rubber Lips" Patriarca, Connolly retired from the FBI and was given a politically-connected utility security job.   But in 1995 the feds, by now recognizing to keep the FBI out of it, handed down indictments to Whitey and his gang; Whitey fled, having spent twenty years establishing aliases and setting up safe-deposit boxes around the world.

Handling the trial was Judge Mark Wolf, a former member of the office of attorney William Weld before Weld was elected Massachusetts governor; Wolf had directly or indirectly witnessed when Jeremiah O'Sullivan worked to cover up for Whitey and Steve, and thus Wolf was the one who forced the FBI to admit the two gangsters were informants and to turn over old documents - it was these documents proving Whitey and Steve had set him up all these years that caused Johnny Martorano to finally turn on his former friends and expose them for what they were.   And by the time of Whitey's 2011 arrest Connolly and Flemmi were convicted criminals and Rico was dead. 

And now Whitey is gone, responsible directly or indirectly for some 59 murders and unknown millions of dollars stolen - all enabled by the FBI at the behest of a crooked US House Speaker.

The cliche still works - you can't make up this stuff.

Week Nine To The Nines




Cincinnati raced to a big lead but when the Bucs changed quarterbacks they rallied to force a late Bengals game-winning drive; the game raised more questions about the future of Jameis Winston, benched after four INTs




The NFL reaches Week Nine, and with six teams on byes, pickings get somewhat slim.



Raiders over 49ers -   The question here is - will C.J Beathard play given a wrist issue?  He's listed as probable, but assuming he plays he hasn't proven he can handle the NFL game.   The Raiders meanwhile are still striving for some kind of momentum to win.


Vikings over Lions - Remember Detroit's three-game streak over the Vikings?  That seems like Barry Sanders-level history right now.   The Lions are 3-4 and haven't forced a turnover in two straight games, while the Vikings have something in common with the Lions in they're both coming off ugly losses.   Kirk Cousins didn't cover himself in glory last week and one wonders if he gets back the fire he showed earlier this year.


Falcons over Redskins -   This is a bit of a tricky pick given the mediocrity of the Falcons at 3-4 vs the 5-2 Redskins, but while I don't like how the Falcons are playing right now I'm not sold on the Redskins as much as I like Alex Smith as a quarterback.


Panthers over Buccaneers - This may erupt in points with the return of Ryan Fitzpatrick as Bucs starter and the Panthers winners of three of their last four with over 30 points in three games this season and the 17-point comeback vs the Eagles still fresh in memory.


NY Jets over Dolphins -  Losers of four of their last five, the Dolphins also may be stuck with Brock Osweiler for awhile with Ryan Tannehill questionable.   The Dolphins are also giving up 7.9 yards per pass, which may help a struggling Sam Darnold, stuck at 55% completion and who has led the Jets to a combined 27 points in the last two games


Ravens over Steelers -  The Ravens are still smarting over losing three of their last four and get a Steelers team they manhandled earlier this year.   The Steelers have rallied with three straight wins, but those have come against two teams they dominate (Cleveland and Cincinnati) and a mediocre Atlanta squad.


Bears over Bills - The collapse of the Bills continues and the Bears come in needing a win to continue gaining momentum with games against the Vikings and other quality teams looming.


Chiefs over Browns -  This will be a fascinating matchup with the surging Chiefs taking on a Browns team that fired its head coach and offensive coordinator - it's a wonder they kept Hue Jackson after his embarrassing hands-off/analytics philosophy expressed on Hard Knocks and resultant underachievement.   The Browns have shown genuine talent and moxie this season, so we don't expect any pushover for the Chiefs.


Texans over Broncos -   Houston has evolved from their 0-3 start to now look again like the Warren Moon Oilers, especially in putting up 42 points against a Dolphins team that hung tougher longer than expected going in.   It seems clear Deshaun Watson is healthier now and that's great news for the Texans facing a 3-5 Broncos team unable to regain the momentum of their first two weeks.


Chargers over Seahawks - San Diego is 5-2 vs a 4-3 Seattle squad that is 1-1 vs. the Chargers in the Pete Carroll period.    The Chargers have yet to beat a team with a winning record this season, but then neither have the Seahawks.   The resurgence of the Chargers has been amazing and stands in contrast to a perceived shakiness in Pete Carroll's program.


Rams over Saints -  This is the clash most looked forward to, as the Rams edged out the Saints in a lowish-scoring affair in 2017 at the Coliseum.   The potential big difference is the Saints are 23rd in fewest points allowed, but the way offenses have erupted of late I'm doubtful they won't score much against the Rams.   The Saints also have an edge in run defense, leading the league in fewest rushing yards per game (and a paltry 3.2 yards per carry allowed) as they take on the Rams' league-leading ground attack.


Patriots over Packers -  The Packers come off a bitter loss at the Rams and come in 0-3 on the road.   Aaron Rodgers comes in with the three-score comeback against the Bears - only the seventh such comeback from down at least two scores in his career -  a distant memory now and looking more like the old off-the-back-foot Aaron Rodgers vs. the one who for the first (and seemingly last) time had to play Brady Ball in the win over the Bears.   The Patriots defense looks shaky but is ahead of the Packers in points allowed, plus the Patriots offense should show up better after playing down to the subpar Bills - an annoying habit permeating the Belichick era of playing up to good teams and down to bad ones.  


Titans over Cowboys -  The Titans come off their bye and off a bitter loss to the Chargers on a missed two-point conversion.   The stats don't look good for the Titans, but the situational execution looks a lot better, as Tennessee has been in every game except the embarrassment against the Ravens, and have wins over Houston and Philadelphia, both at .500 or better.   The Cowboys come in as a rollercoaster - loss, win, loss, win, loss in overtime, win, loss - and no win over anyone with a winning or .500 record.   Jason Garrett's reputation as a sham coach/bobo of Jerry Jones isn't being dissuaded, and stands in contrast to the strong beginning for first-year Titans coach Mike Vrabel.  




Happy post-Halloween.