So the NFL hits Week Ten and the playoff race now is underway.
First we look back at New England's win over Green Bay. This game demonstrated not only that Tom Brady is the better quarterback, it showed how overrated Aaron Rodgers really is. He completed just two passes in the fourth quarter, a 7-yarder to Aaron Jones and an 8-yarder to Devante Adams, and was sacked twice while running twice for eight yards. Rodgers' reputation for being a frontrunner and not a true great continues - he is now 7-36 when trailing by at least two scores, and Brady as usual played better vs. Rodgers playing worse as the game went on.
A key aspect of this disparity has been addressed in a few circles where it is noted Rodgers seems always to sits alone on the bench without conversation with any coaches - as though he's made up his mind how to play the game without wanting input from others.
Also noteworthy was the Houston Texans' escape job in Denver on a missed field goal, the ultimate heartbreaker for Case Keenum and also, despite comments to the contrary by John Elway, perhaps the deathknell for coach Vance Joseph as both the surging Texans and slumping Broncos enter their Bye week
Marcus Mariota delivered Tennessee's first win since Week Four by overcoming two early turnovers to pass for 243 yards, two scores, and a passer rating of 119 - his fifth game of 80 or higher this year, four of them 90 or higher. Dak Prescott meanwhile continues to regress.
Panthers over Steelers - Both teams won last week and both are looking to surge, but Carolina has shown the greater overall improvement of the two.
Saints over Bengals - The Saints and Drew Brees keep storming forward, and now get an inconsistent Bengals squad that nonetheless has won four of the last five meetings with the Saints including 2014's game vs Brees. Defensively neither team is all that good, both in the bottom-two in passing yardage allowed while the Saints unnoticed lead the league in fewest rushing yards allowed. Where the Bengals have an edge is turnover differential at plus-4 vs. New Orleans at zero.
Patriots over Titans - The last seven meetings between these two teams have all been Patriots wins - they met twice in 2003 and both games - 38-30 in Week Five and 17-14 in the Divisional Playoffs - were competitively compelling affairs; Steve McNair's bomb in the playoff bounced off Drew Bennett's fingers, thus ending that game. Vince Young put up a fight in 2006 and the Patriots led only 26-23 before putting that game away 40-23, but since then the games have been grossly one-sided; only 2017's playoff match was even moderately competitive as Marcus Mariota clawed to a 7-0 lead before the Patriots put the game away.
This history thus augurs against the Titans, who've nonetheless shown real fight under first-year coach and former Patriots linebacker/part-time tight end Mike Vrabel, notably in the Monday Nighter at Dallas.
Colts over Jaguars - The Colts have now won two straight and get a Jaguars team that has lost four straight and where discipline appears to have disappeared - a shocking regression for any Tom Coughlin team either as a coach or a GM. The faltering of Blake Bortles raises doubts about his viability going forward.
Chiefs over Cardinals - The Chiefs keep on winning and look more like the Vikings of twenty years ago with each passing win.
Buccaneers over Redskins - The Bucs hung tough vs the Panthers last week but it wasn't enough; now they get a Redskins team humiliated by the Falcons last week; we doubt the Bucs will finish with a winning record but they can start salvaging something. What is clear is Jameis Winston is done in Tampa Bay with a now-proven inability to make good decisions.
Bears over Lions - Matthew Stafford was sacked ten times last week and thus does offensive line trouble add to a season threatening to fall to 6-10 or maybe worse in Matt Patricia's first year. In just about every aspect - turnover differential, points scored, points allowed - the Bears are well ahead of the Lions, making Patricia's debut season the kind of rough "welcome to the NFL moment" that's so common.
Falcons over Browns - The first game for interim coach Gregg Williams was competitive for only the first half, and now the Browns get a Falcons team that got a needed rout last week. Momentum hasn't arrived for the Browns and we doubt it will begin this week.
Jets over Bills - Buffalo's quarterback situation has become a disaster and 2-14 now looks likely; this week they get a struggling Jets squad; calls to bench rookie Sam Darnold make no sense as he has to weather through the entire season first.
The first jaw-dropper of Week 9 was the spectacular debut of second-year player and practice-squad callup Nick Mullins
Chargers over Raiders - The other jaw-dropper of the Niners-Raiders game was how abysmal the Raiders were with terrible play from Derek Carr and the popular belief that the Raiders players have quit on coach Jon Gruden; even belief that the Raiders will buy out his $100 million contract has circulated. With the Chargers coming off a tighter-than-expected win at Seattle it won't get any better for the beleagured Raiders, perhaps the biggest disappointment of the season.
Rams over Seahawks - The Seahawks are clearly no longer a playoff threat and they visit LA with the Rams smarting over a bitter loss at New Orleans.
Dolphins over Packers - The Packers got exposed as a team that lacks toughness; they were looking to avoid contact on both sides of the ball for a striking amount of the game at Foxboro. Now they host a Dolphins team that pulled a surprise in beating the Jets despite missing Ryan Tannehill and are an unnoticed 5-4 with a plus-five turnover differential vs. Green Bay's minus-one. Aaron Rodgers has regressed back into the sloppy freelancing quarterback after being forced to play Bradyball in Week One vs the Bears.
Eagles over Cowboys - The Eagles are struggling at 4-4 and coming off their bye week, but they get a mediocre Cowboys squad whose coach has been overdue for replacement despite Jerry Jones' inability to admit a guy he trained isn't capable.
49ers over Giants - The collapse of the NY Giants continues. We expect Nick Mullins to keep on keeping on vs the inept Giants.
Ten becomes Week Ten this weekend.
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