NASCAR's Box Of Chocolates package: NASCAR mandated a gear change going into pole day and also allowed lower ride heights, leading to the spectacle of the cars resembling lowriders. The gear change allowed the cars to suck up in the draft better while the cars are strikingly looser, especially in the draft. The first test of this new package was the Advanced Auto Busch Clash, and the 150s were the next test.
With two such races out of the way, the result is we really don't know what we're getting for the 500. The cars are looser all around, which led to several wrecks in the 150s. It also saw bizarre contrasts - dicing for the lead was tight and tense, but the last 30-plus laps of the Clash were a single file line where seemingly everyone was afraid to try to pass; this was repeated in the 150s, with the first 150 less intense than the second. We expect the 500 to be more intensely contested with segment bonus points being in play; clearly the drivers can pass, and we saw cars get runs past multiple cars in a lap or two.
Lowriders ride the cushion - The ARCA Lucas Oil 200 saw two lanes of drafts, and when Sean Corr and Sheldon Creed went Petty-vs-Ranier throwback for the win highside sidedraft passing came back in an eye-opener. It has now extended to the NASCAR side of things as the fields have preferred the highside. Cars out back kept moving low to pass but seemingly no one wanted to run the bottom.
The Penske Fords, and the Fords in general, are the favorites - Penske Racing swept the Clash and their 150 and the Roush and Wood Brothers Fords also showed real muscle, notably Ricky Stenhouse, stuck striving to pass from the back in his 150 and finally succeeding at the end even as he had to dodge two wrecks. Brad Keselowski's semi-effortless win in the Clash wasn't replicated in the 150, and in fact his wreck looked a little bit like an Ernie Irvan move, while Ryan Blaney right away established his bona fides in Roger's fleet. Trevor Bayne and Paul Menard in the second 150 also showed genuine steam, especially a surprisingly feisty Menard in the Wood Brothers #21. Michael McDowell's Ford also earned respect in his race and the Stewart-Haas Fords were also decent, especially Kevin Harvick, though Aric Almirola caught the Danica jinx in his #10.
A curious fact - Fords have now won eleven of the last fourteen plate races.
The Petty-RCR Chevrolets are the strongest Ford challengers - Make no mistake; if Bubba Wallace doesn't win in 2018 it will be a serious surprise. Ryan Newman ran good despite rear fender damage while Austin Dillon struggled in his 150, but it's Darrell Wallace Jr. in Richard Petty's RCR-aligned #43 that stole the show on Thursday night. When Wallace rocketed from the back to the lead five in last year's Firecracker 400 in Petty's #43 that was the first true sign Wallace can hack it at the Winston Cup level having already established his racing bona fides in the Truck Series and also with respectable effort in the Busch-Xfinity Series.
Chevrolet goes into the 500 winless in Cup plate races since the disastrous 2 AM Firecracker fiasco of 2015 and with just two wins in the last four seasons.
Chase Elliott won his 150 while Hendrick's other cars are head-scratching - Jimmie Johnson has now wrecked twice this Speedweeks and William Byron's Hendrick debut ended in a wreck. Alex Bowman won the pole in the ex-Dale Junior #88 but he didn't race anyone and in fact stayed out of the draft altogether - which led to an interesting comment by Kevin Harvick afterward that Bowman thus learned nothing for the 500. This left it to Chase Elliott to chase a qualifier win in easily the more hotly-contested of the Twins. The surprise there was he cruised home basically unchallenged.
The Toyotas are also head-scratchers - Just how good are the Toyotas? Denny Hamlin rocketed back and forth in his 150 and the JGR Camrys seemed to be able to pass people, while Martin Truex has been curiously quiet this Speedweeks. Hamlin has won the last two plate races for Toyota - the 2014 Winston 500 and 2016 Daytona 500 - and right now seems the favorite in that class.
So the 150s are done and the 500 awaits the conclusion of the Truck Series and Busch-Xfinity Series.
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