Monday, February 05, 2018

Fly Eagles Fly In Superbowl Classic





And so ends a 58-year championship drought and only the third grudge-match Superbowl in which the losing side the first time won the rematch - the Dolphins defeated the Redskins in 1972 then the Skins beat them in 1982; the Steelers beat the Cowboys in 1975 and again in 1978, then the Cowboys closed out the Troy Aikman dynasty at the Steelers' expense in 1995.  

For the Philadelphia Eagles it was decades of abuse over not winning a championship despite multiple talented teams, notably during the 2000-04 period under Andy Reid and the much-abused Donovan McNabb when they won four straight NFC East titles and lost three straight NFC Title Games, then made Superbowl XXXIX only to falter in the most anticlimactic Superbowl in memory.   The Eagles made the playoffs under ex-49er Jeff Garcia in 2006 and won a memorable Wildcard game vs the NY Giants, made the NFC Title Game in 2008 under McNabb, went one-and-out in 2009, then in 2010 won the NFC East under comeback player of the year Michael Vick and lost a bitter Wildcard affair to the Packers.  

Nick Foles' first playoff run with the Eagles came in 2013 ending in a Wildcard round loss to the Saints, then Foles faltered and in 2016 Carson Wentz took over, storming the Eagles in 2017 before being lost for the season late this past year in the Rams game.    Foles' redemption becomes all the more impressive after his strikingly slow start as starter late in the regular season and also the playoff upset of the Falcons.  

As usual in Superbowls a lot will be dissected.  My own takes -


The big picture takeaway for the NFL - finally a fresh new champion.   The seeming lack of competitive depth in the league has been an issue for a number of years now and is likely the largest reason for declining ratings.   Seeing the Titans, Jaguars, Bills, Vikings, and Panthers in the playoffs in 2017 was a refreshing change for the league's competitive depth and seeing the Eagles end a 58-year title drought is a huge step forward for a league that objectively has suffered from Patriots Fatigue; with the arrival of Jimmy Garoppolo to the 49ers suddenly expectation is sky-high for another team that fell off the map to explode forward again.  In short there appears to be legitimate competitive depth in the league again.  

The big picture takeaway for the Eagles - they've got a team that looks like a sustainable power, though they are reportedly $5 million over the salary cap, plus what to do with Nick Foles once Carson Wentz comes back may be a little sticky; we think Wentz becomes starter again.   The decline of the Dallas Cowboys helps the Eagles going forward while the collapse of the NY Giants merely reduces a team the Eagles have largely owned for the last two decades further, and the always-inconsistent at best Washington Redskins remain a question mark, though signing ex-Chief Alex Smith will be an improvement over the overrated Kirk Cousins.

There are several big-picture takeaways for the Patriots - the story is they are some $19 million under the cap, which will help going forward.  New England lost too many battles at the line of scrimmage, especially on defense, though given how much improvement the defense had shown since starting 2-2 the avalanche under which the defense got buried was a little surprising.  The offensive line played well overall but also struggled more than a 600-plus yard game would suggest.    The bigger takeaway on offense is it is time the Patriots invest in and commit to multiple big physical bookend deep threat pass catchers instead of insisting on a binky offense where too often receivers don't get enough separation while leaning too much on Rob Gronkowski - the return of Martellus Bennett should help draw heat away from Gronkowski if Bennett is retained for 2018.   Having multiple bookend deep threats is a big part of why the Eagles won.

The big buzz revolves around the de facto benching of Malcolm Butler by the Patriots.   It was unexpected - yet unsurprising, for Butler has been playing his way downward the last two seasons, especially after the Stephon Gilmore signing; worth remembering is Butler was benched in the game at the Saints and earlier this season a story attributed to Albert Breer suggested Butler might be a trade piece for Mychal Kendricks of the Eagles.   Of course Butler's subpar play vs the Jaguars in the AFC Title Game only made his future in New England all the murkier, and the notion advanced in some circles that he could have helped the Patriots defense in the Superbowl seems wishful thinking - subsequent scuttlebutt alleging serial insubordination to Butler makes it even worse for him despite media spin in his favor.

Murkier also becomes the future of Josh McDaniels with separate Mike Florio and Scott Zolak reporting indicating the assumed deal to become Indianapolis Colts head coach may not happen - this has led to speculation (always a mug's game) that Bill Belichick's future with the team is uncertain, but that's just gossip unsupported by any credible evidence (with a reported signing of Greg Schiano to replace Matt Patricia indicating Belichick is staying).   More likely the idea of working for the unstable Jim Irsay has more to do with McDaniels' future than any gossip about Belichick.  

Ironically both the Patriots and Eagles - regular preseason opponents - face the AFC South on their 2018 slates; both face the division champion Jaguars, the improved Titans under new head coach Mike Vrabel - Vrabel's hiring looks to be a coup for the Titans as it has a lot to do with his player experience with the Patriots, the team every other AFC team has to overcome first and foremost - and also a Houston Texans team where rookie sensation Deshaun Watson should be able to run the full season; what he produced in his foreshortened rookie year was eye-popping and a tremendous sign going forward.   What the Indianapolis Colts will look like is still in question, though Andrew Luck we think will finally be able to suit up again.  

Both teams will also face the Minnesota Vikings, vastly improved in 2017, though their quarterback situation is a bit murky going forward with Teddy Bridgewater healthy again.    One can expect the season-opening Thursday Nighter to be Vikings at Eagles.   

There is clearly no evidence Tom Brady is in any decline; indeed reaching the AFC Title Game will be an upset if it doesn't happen.   Right now the premature prediction is the Patriots once again storm to the AFC East but  the Miami Dolphins get Ryan Tannehill back and we believe the Dolphins make a playoff run again, while the Bills' quarterback situation may be in flux, as we doubt Tyrod Taylor will be starter in 2018; the NY Jets remain a murky deal.    Elsewhere in the AFC the Jaguars, Titans, and Texans look to make the AFC South the deepest division in the conference the way the NFC South presently in in that conference; we're not yet sure what to make of the Steelers with rampant blame-assignation and little to no accountability shown by anyone there, while the Ravens may be in some desperation mode with longtime GM Ozzie Newsome retiring after 2018; the Bengals still don't look like more than a 9-7 team and the Browns just can't get anything going; the Broncos likewise suddenly are a big mess while the Raiders try to rebound with a new coach - though what to expect out of Jon Gruden is a complete mystery - the Chiefs look to the future with Patrick Mahones, and the Chargers showed more than expected to where they may actually be getting better.

As for the NFC we expect the Eagles to stay on top in the East with only the Redskins showing improvement with a new quarterback, while the Giants deal is a mess and the Cowboys aren't in much better shape; in the North the Vikings are top dogs and the Packers may be in trouble with more pessimistic talk from Aaron Rodgers - talk at times sounding like subtle blame-shifting - about whether he'll stay in Green Bay, with the Lions presently stuck as a 9-7 team and the Bears wondering if they'll ever get better; the South is the deepest division in the conference and we think Carolina and Atlanta will stay as playoff contenders while New Orleans showed huge improvement in 2017 as the Bucs regressed; the West meanwhile gets wilder with the steady erosion of the Seahawks, murkiness about the Cardinals, the surge of the Rams, and the big potential story in the eruption of the new-look 49ers.


A John Wayne line from The Green Berets comes to mind - "first we get some sack time, then we start all over again."  For the Patriots and everyone else some rest is needed and then the grind renews with free agency, the Draft, and finally July training camps.  For the Eagles it's the song Don't Dream It's Over.

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