Week Four, like most NFL weeks, didn't go "according to plan" and now "the plan" will need adjustment going forward.
The Patriots' defensive struggles this season have drawn the most attention because they are all but dead last in points allowed and breakdowns have drawn heavy attention, notably by defensive back Stephon Gilmore and dismal technique against the Panthers that got him benched for the start of the second half of that game until injury to Eric Rowe forced him back into the field. Gilmore issues date to his last season in Buffalo where he criticized teammates following the Bills' 41-25 loss to the Patriots. But issues go well beyond Gilmore and bring to mind the demotion of Malcolm Butler for freelancing in the first two games. The term "communication issues" has become a cliche but it nonetheless indicates these are correctable problems - something the Patriots do better than the rest of the league.
Patriots over Buccaneers - This looks like a shaky pick given the short turnaround time for the Patriots and the fact the Bucs are playing well overall. At 2-1 the Bucs are top-16 on both sides of the ball and Jameis Winston has been solid. The Patriots will likely have another high-scorer of a game here and we expect some more discipline on defense - Butler and Gilmore already got benched for freelancing once, and they'll get it again if they don't do what they're told.
49ers over Colts - The 49ers come off a heartbreaker of an overtime loss and have only scored nine points a game outside of the explosion against the Rams - and are in the bottom quarter on both sides of the ball - but they get a Colts team even worse, especially against NFC West teams where they've given up 46 points twice already. Andrew Luck is supposed to return to practice, but at this point does it really matter?
NY Jets over Browns - Forget Suck For Sam - the Jets are tied for second in the AFC East despite being 21st on both sides of the ball, and put up 471 yards against the Jaguars. Having already surpassed the number of wins that would make having the draft pick needed for Sam Darnold feasible, the Jets now realistically have to ride as forward as they can, getting the winless - again - Browns, a team punchless on offense.
Steelers over Jaguars - The first two weeks are now history a Steelers team second in points allowed (yet just 18th in scoring) hosts their former AFC Central mates in the Jaguars. The Jags have become a lot better than they've been the last five-plus years and are in the top-six on both sides of the ball; this may be a tighter game than the oddsmakers presently think.
NY Giants over Chargers - By now it's almost a fait accompli that San Diego will get the Chargers back; fir this week the winless Chargers have to fly to East Rutherford, NJ and the winless Giants in the battle of 2004's Draft Trade Bonanza.
Bills over Bengals - We're not sold yet on the Bengals while the Bills have surprised people storming to 3-1 and leading the league in fewest points allowed. Sustaining this seems more possible with the new coach in Buffalo than we've seen in the past with quick Buffalo starts.
Lions over Panthers - Both teams are fourth in points allowed but the Lions have the edge in scoring and Cam Newton's game hasn't advanced.
Titans over Dolphins - This one would be an easier pick if Marcus Mariota hadn't gotten hurt in the Cylon invasion of a loss at Houston; with the signing of Brandon Weeden the Titans at least have a backup with presumptive starter Matt Cassel. Tennessee is fortunate they get a Dolphins team where Jay Cutler has proven as bad (dead last in scoring) as advertised.
Eagles over Cardinals - So far the only team to beat the Eagles is the one coached by their former boss Andy Reid, and the 2-2 Cardinals don't look like a team that can elevate their play, especially stuck with Carson Palmer despite last week's eye-popping overtime win. Carson Wentz's six scores to two picks stands well above the five INTs of Palmer.
Raiders over Ravens - This one has been thrown asunder with Derek Carr's back injury and the elevation of EJ Manuel, the ex-Bill looking for his first win since beating the Dolphins in Week 2 of 2014. Joe Flacco hasn't been much of an improvement right now with six INTs to just four touchdowns and a 2-2 record.
Rams over Seahawks - The Seahawks are 9-11-1 on the road starting with 2015's Week One loss at the Rams. The Rams have exploded on offense, especially in their two road games so far, and have won four of their last six meetings with the Seahawks. Sunday night's massacre of the Colts make the Seahawks look better than they ultimately are.
Cowboys over Packers - The Cowboys haven't forgotten last season's playoff loss to the Packers despite their present schizophrenia. They can turn it on against a Packers team that's been mediocre on defense.
Chiefs over Texans - This has become an early candidate for playoff preview as the unbeaten Chiefs take on a rapidly-improved Texans team. The Chiefs under Andy Reid won three straight before last season's upset and this is the fourth-straight game at Houston for Kansas City. Deshaun Watson's eruption has caught many an eye with seven touchdowns plus two on the ground - he's also presently second in rushing behind Lamar Miller and is head-and-shoulders ahead of everyone in Yards Per Carry at 7.8. An edge the Texans may have over the Chiefs - Kansas City's scoring has cooled off since Week One.
Vikings over Bears - The Mitchell Trubisky era begins this week after five INTs by Mike Glennon and ten overall turnovers in the last three games. The Bears now need Trubisky to live up to the hope as they get a Vikings team that has been radically uneven in scoring. Sam Bradford is still day-to-day and that makes it harder for the Vikings, but overall they seem to have a slight edge for the moment.
So we await whether Stephon Gilmore makes the game-winning play.
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