Patriots over Chiefs - Predictions by fans and some media of a 19-0 season began with the free agent acquisitions made by the Patriots; Bill Belichick never buys into such predictions, and the Patriots have even less reason to feel they will go unbeaten now. Julian Edelman's season-ending injury is the one getting the most attention, but the mediocre performance of the line of scrimmage defense already led to the release of Kony Ealy - among the free agent flameouts of the Belichick era this may be the most graphic given Ealy was already in Belichick's doghouse when camp started - and the Patriots' depth at the line of scrimmage already looks questionable. Malcolm Butler also is living down to a media report proclaiming him the most overrated player on the Patriots roster.
And yet the Edelman injury is a blessing in disguise - Brady periodically lapses into forcing the ball to one guy at the expense of everyone else (illustrated in the Football Life episode on Belichick where he laments the lack of receiver depth to his staff before 2009's loss at the NY Jets, and also shown in Brady's dismal performance in the infamous 2014 game at Kansas City) and when the Falcons took away Edelman in the Superbowl it forced Brady to spread the ball more and thus unclog the passing game. James White, Rex Burkhead, Dion Lewis, and Danny Amendola will see more catches and the Patriots may see Austin Carr on the roster to go with Brandin Cooks (curiously quiet in preseason) and Gronkowski; Dwayne Allen may be the odd man out after a nonexistent preseason.
For the Chiefs the season-ending injury to Spencer Ware is more concerning given the Chiefs' lesser depth compared to the Patriots. The Patriots also hold the overall edge against Andy Reid, 5-2, and the Chiefs are clearly waiting for Patrick Mahones to develop, so Alex Smith can see his days numbered, a disadvantageous situation heading into Foxboro.
Bills over NY Jets - The new game in the NFL is Suck For Sam - as in USC quarterback Sam Darnold. Buffalo and the Jets have hemorrhaged veteran personnel - Anquan Boldin retired just two weeks into Bills camp - and for the Jets the call to tank the season has been an open story. The Bills have changed coaches, so there is more reason to establish some kind of positive momentum than is the case with the Jets, a team forever haunted by history - fifty years ago Joe Namath became the first quarterback to reach 4,000 passing yards and also authored the Jets' first ever winning season; twenty years ago the Jets paid a king's ransom for Bill Parcells, while Tennessee quarterback Peyton Manning inquired whether the Jets were interested in drafting him; when they declined Peyton stayed at Tennessee for one more year and got drafted by the Indianapolis Colts - and history changed.
The present Jets have to start Josh McCown by default as Bryce Petty despite a huge output in the preseason game against the Jets has not proven he warrants being starter, and Christian Hackenberg looks more and more like a flat-out failure. So Suck For Sam gets underway.
Texans over Jaguars - Even before the hurricane ravaged the Houston area and thus has put a massive damper on the Texans' season going in, Houston's team hasn't looked ready for prime time with either Tom Savage or Deshaun Watson. Watson in particular looks like a bad quarterback, relying on running, throwing on the run, showing no small-ball technique, reading of defense, or any of the techniques that real quarterbacks master to become winners. Houston's defense is ranked very well but is certainly beatable, if not even overrated, and Bill O'Brien has yet to prove he can do better than 9-7 entering his fourth season as Texans head coach.
The Jaguars, though, are in worse shape and may also be in the Suck For Sam sweepstakes. Blake Bortles' mechanics problems are still there, his quarterbacking acumen hasn't shown much improvement if any, and the offensive line has been a mess. Tom Coughlin is in the first year of his return to Jacksonville, now as de facto GM, and the mess he's inherited is such that rebuilding will take years, this after the many years spent trying to rebuild from the wreckage of the Blaine Gabbert failure.
Bengals over Ravens - The Bengals come into 2017 looking no better than the six-win flop of 2016. Vontaze Burfict faces another suspension for another questionable hit, this one on Anthony Sherman of the Chiefs, and Andy Dalton has looked like a quarterback who plateaued and is now beginning to decline. Dalton did show some moxie in the game against the Redskins, and he faces a Ravens team he has bested seven of the last nine meetings and whose own quarterback, Joe Flacco, has battled knee concerns all camp. John Harbaugh has said he will start this game, but one has to feel a lack of confidence in Flacco after going 13-19 since losing the 2014 divisional playoff at New England.
Raiders over Titans - The Raiders have looked noticeably sharper in preseason than the Titans, who scored just ten combined points in losses to the Jets and Bears; Alex Tanney won no confidence with a poor performance against the Chiefs. The game against the Bears with multiple penalties, an ejection, and just one touchdown was embarrassing, though lack of receiver depth with numerous veteran guys held out didn't help anything.
With that the Titans should be a lot better than this - they did show fight in the game against the Panthers after the three-point embarrassment at the Jets - and this game should be a lot closer, facing a Raiders team that won twelve games last year and returning their quarterback of the future in Derek Carr while ex-Seahawk Marshawn Lynch showed a little of his old muscle in preseason; whether it proves sustainable remains to be seen.
Eagles over Redskins - The Redskins looked like the dysfunctional mess they've been almost since the end of the first Joe Gibbs era in the off-season and the controversy over Kirk Cousins' contract will only get worse now. They face an Eagles team that suddenly looks improved over 2016.
Buccaneers over Dolphins - The injury that ended Ryan Tannehill's season led to the unexpected signing of the weak Jay Cutler, who played decently under Adam Gase in Chicago, but it is impossible to take Jay Cutler that seriously, especially facing an improving Bucs team, though preseason has been a little erratic.
Falcons over Bears - Of the six losses for the Falcons in 2016, curiously four of them were home losses - the Superbowl included as the Falcons were the designated home team - so going to Chicago would seem easier to start the season. The Bears, though, for the first time in awhile have reason to believe there will be improvement, though Mitchell Trubinsky likely won't see any action outside of mop-up duty later in the season. Given the relative porousness of the Falcons defense the Bears should out up some points here.
Steelers over Browns - DeShone Kizer has been designated the starter for the Browns - thus presumably ending the Brock Osweiler era. The Steelers, though, enter with Ben Roethlisberger not looking committed to the game as much as in the past and with the division looking weaker than in recent seasons.
Lions over Cardinals - Matthew Stafford's league-record extension will make the quarterback market crazier - and also whet appetites for more such contracts despite the top-heaviness of such an approach. Armed with this new contract Stafford takes on a mediocre Cardinals team that still has Carson Palmer and whose only road wins last year were against all three of their division foes. Stafford's improvement as a quarterback has been noted by the varied experts as he continues switching away from the Calvin Johnson bomb squader to the small-ball quarterback that is the kind that wins Superbowls. His abysmal performance against quality opponents, though, showed up again in the Patriots game, where Jake Rudock led the comeback from down 24-0. Rudock - the Patriots radio broadcast cleverly noted his status as a sixth-round draft pick from Michigan - won't usurp Stafford's job, but actually beating good teams is a priority for the 2009 first rounder.
Colts over Rams - The Colts are a mess, and so are the Rams, but the Colts just got better with the trade for Jacoby Brissett. With Andrew Luck presumably out until until the Colts' home game against the Jaguars it seems a no-brainer Brissett will start - his game against the NY Giants showed genuine growth as a quarterback, while the Rams are stuck with Jared Goff, who looks like a complete failure of a quarterback.
Seahawks over Packers - Surprisingly the Seahawks have exploded in preseason and look by far the most ready team in the NFC for the season. They travel to a Packers team that has bested them the last few meetings, but which looked rather sluggish in their game at Denver. The Seahawks did regress as a road team in 2016, but in Russell Wilson the Hawks have the better quarterback.
Panthers over 49ers - The John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan era begins after a surprisingly competitive preseason, though expecting major improvement right away is too much to ask. Suck For Sam may be a non-option here, though all the Niners have is Brian Hoyer as they take on a Panthers team smarting from 2016's collapse.
NY Giants over Cowboys - So far in preseason the loss of Zeke Elliott to league suspension - though Fort Worth Star-Telegram reportage suggested the accusation against Elliott may not in fact be truthful - appears not to be in the Cowboys favor; even with Elliott the Cowboys have lost three straight to the Giants in the Joyful Heart Curse and the Cowboys didn't acquit themselves particularly well against the Raiders. Injury to Odell Beckham Jr. in preseason may hamper the Giants offense.
Vikings over Saints - Neither team has shown much in preseason; the Vikings host this game and the Saints have been a 7-9 team four of the last five seasons; the can still put up offense but Drew Brees has not put up clutch wins lately.
Broncos over Chargers - The Broncos are stuck with Trevor Siemian, who has shown no growth as a quarterback, but they face a Chargers team with no discernable LA audience and which has played poorly throughout the preseason, even in a win over the lowly Rams. Thirty years ago Chargers legends Dan Fouts and Kellen Winslow retired after San Diego won eight straight and lost the remainder of the season. Twenty years ago the Chargers fell to 3-13 and wound up with the worst draft pick in history; to think they may be no better off now than in 1997 is hair-pulling for Charger fans.
So we await Week One.
