The NFL's divisional playoff round has arrived and some of the participants come as a surprise to some, except by this point these surprises really aren't surprising. We look at the four games -
The last time the Falcons traveled to Philly it didn't end well, but this coming game is radically different
Falcons over Eagles - This game's dynamic changed when Carson Wentz went down late in the season. Nick Foles started the last two games and was terrible in both. The Falcons' playoff win at the Rams makes them easy favorites.
The Titans and Patriots didn't meet in the regular season; in Week Three both teams had to fight to win explosive games, and ironically Ron Torbert - the referee for this coming game - was referee for Tennessee's win over Seattle and New England's home win over Miami (John Parry reffed Texans at Patriots)
Patriots over Titans - The Vegas spread of 13+ for the Patriots is preposterous and indicative of people insisting on underestimating the Tennessee Titans, a team that has won eleven games against playoff contenders the last two seasons; for comparison the Patriots have won fourteen such games -
New England's run defense has been a problem this season (4.7 Yards Per Carry allowed) and for the Titans the rise of Derrick Henry with DeMarco Murray out is a propitious development. Also solid is Tennessee's O-line, which wore down a solid Chiefs front seven. The Patriots hope Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell can also suit up for Saturday's game with no progress seen for Brady to work more with Philip Dorsett, while ex-Titan Kenny Britt may finally get some serious work. Rob Gronkowski and Delanie Walker look to have strong games and Brady's domination of Dick Lebeau defenses has been absolute. We expect a tight game decided by less than seven.
Jaguars over Steelers - The Jaguars have more than held their own against the Steelers since entering the league as an AFC Central team and the return of Tom Coughlin to the Jaguars has raised them to a legitimate contender; they certainly showed it in embarrassing the Steelers earlier this season. Blake Bortles set back quarterbacking ten or more years in his win over the Bills, themselves in need of an actual quarterback, but his running was an eye-opening new wrinkle. The Steelers have been a power for a long time but also have notable choke jobs in this span and an arrogance that betrays them at the worst moment, while the Jaguars have nothing to lose anymore.
Week One
Drew Brees tried to become Brett Favre
Vikings over Saints - Drew Brees went to the Superbowl on a boneheaded interception in the Superdome, and astonishingly in the Wildcard round he authored one himself that tried to give away a win to the Panthers. The INT against the Panthers is a bad sign as the Saints nearly blew a two-touchdown lead, this after some subpar play the last two weeks of the regular season. They return to the new Metrodome with a Vikings team as good as any we've ever seen. Case Keenum has proven himself and then some for a Vikings team that is loaded to be good for a long time.
What is the real threat to the future of the NFL? It isn't injury, it's a two-parter - Part One is the lack of intellectual growth among coaches. The New England Patriots are feasting on turkeys galore entering Thanksgiving weekend and there isn't a coach in the league who can compete with Bill Belichick. Week Eleven showcased how vast the qualitative gap exists between Belichick and everyone else - and it's not just in coaching, it's in roster construction as well..
New England's Speedy Gonzales show showed anew how bad other coaches are compared to the Patriots.
Of course the bigger issue is Part Two - the lack of development of quarterbacks. That some media are again lobbying for a team to sign the worthless Colin Kaepernick - he of fewer wins the last three seasons than Jacoby Brissett or Blaine Gabbert - is driven by disgust at the poor quality of quarterbacking. The problem, though, is they're not being developed between the college game's refusal to play pro-style offenses - instead imposing the dumbed-down zone read offense - and the lack of a true developmental apparatus , i.e. a minor league. The NFL's myopia about having a minor league and/or working with other football leagues to better develop players by now is clearly hurting the game - just what would not be beneficial from an alliance of the NFL with the CFL, arena football leagues, etc.?
So we hope quality of play improves somewhat this Thanksgiving weekend -
2016 Thanksgiving
Lions over Vikings - The Lions have dominated this rivalry lately, winning the last three meetings, and have regained some momentum after winning three straight. The NFC North has become strictly a two-team race between these two as the Vikings look to snap their slump, coming off a clutch win over a powerful Rams phalanx.
Chargers over Cowboys - Suddenly San Diego doesn't look like pantywaists anymore, though obliterating a collapsing Bills squadron is not exactly a clutch win. The Chargers nonetheless have something they need - momentum - entering Jerry Jones World with the Cowboys now officially in freefall after their inability to function without Zeke Elliott showed in their ugliest loss in years.
Redskins over NY Giants - The Redskins blew it again at New Orleans while the NY Giants pulled off a stunner of a win over the Chiefs as Roger Lewis became this Giants generation's David Tyree. The failure of the Giants' season won't be assuaged by one win, and being a divisional game the bad blood will boil, especially for a Redskins team that's not a playoff team but is better than 4-6, albeit only slightly.
The highest-scoring game in the Bengals-Browns rivalry's history came in 2004.............
.............until it was surpassed three years later
Bengals over Browns - The Broncos are collapsing, yet beating them in Denver counts for something for the struggling Bengals, and they get the winless Browns who look even worse than last year and are stuck with a quarterback who looks to have no future.
Titans over Colts - Getting humiliated by the Steelers should motivate the Titans to redouble effort to clean up gaffes committed at Heinz Field. They're looking for only the second season sweep of the Colts in their history and this Colts team continues to struggle. Don't expect a runaway, though; that never seems to work when one expects it.
Panthers over NY Jets - Carolina more and more looks back in 2015 form as the Panthers travel to a Jets team that's lost four of its last five games. The caveat to throw in is turnover differential - the Jets are plus-One to Carolina's minus-Seven - a yikes stat.
Chiefs over Bills - Andy Reid's NFC East magic is gone and they get what looks to be a needed respite after losing three of the last four games. The Bills no longer look like a playoff team - entering this week the Ravens have supplanted the Bills as the AFC's six seed - and are getting ripped for starting rookie Nathan Peterman and seeing five INTs in the first half at San Diego.
Falcons over Buccaneers - The Falcons despite struggling quite a bit are still in the playoff race despite only being the eighth seed in the NFC,
and they get a slumping Bucs squad, one of the big underachievers of the season.
Eagles over Bears - The Eagles just keep pillaging opponents and they get a bad Bears team this week. Mitchell Trubisky is a rookie and his struggles will continue.
2016's Michael Floyd game
Patriots over Dolphins - Forget it - the machine of the league vs. an inept division foe stuck with a quarterback who doesn't care and doesn't try.
Saints over Rams - The Rams got exposed by the Vikings and the Saints look more and more like a Superbowl team. Remember when they were 0-2? They don't, either.
Seahawks over 49ers - The Niners got their first win of the season and the Seahawks are losing starters more and more, but the Seahawks have too much firepower for the Niners.
Raiders over Broncos - Which team is worse? We think the Broncos, and so does John Elway after he ripped them for softness before they proved him right in their loss to the Bengals. Neither team is going anywhere.
Jaguars over Cardinals - Blaine Gabbert is an upgrade for Arizona's quarterbacking issue of late, but they get a Jaguars team racing headlong into the playoffs.
Steelers over Packers - The collapse of the Packers is hilarious given how overrated they always are; they'd be better with Aaron Rodgers but it's impossible to think they'd be all that much better. Pittsburgh continues to surge.
Texans over Ravens - The Texans suddenly have some momentum after finally breaking through with Tom Savage and they travel to Baltimore after the Ravens looked like 2000 all over again.
Yep, the Bengals failed in a big opportunity again, and the NY Giants are now in the fight for the NFC playoffs.
And suddenly the NFL landscape is a lot different entering Week Eleven than it was when thirteen teams were 1-3 - of course the 0-4 Browns are still winless, so on that score nothing has changed.
So what can we think we'll see for this coming week's games?
Panthers over Saints - This is a risky pick given both teams lost last week and the Panthers' inability to hold a lead showed its ugly head again against the Chiefs. Being at home is not advantage for the Panthers either, but neither team has looked like a playoff team despite some gaudy offenses and an aging Drew Brees is still having his hands full despite yet more 4,000-yard production.
Bengals over Bills - The Bengals' run of playoff appearances is almost certainly over but this week they lick their wounds from another primetime flameout and get a Bills team that's been competitive but not good enough.
Steelers over Browns - It is simply impossible to feel the Browns can win even one game, as mediocre as the Steelers are.
Cowboys over Ravens - The Ravens lead the AFC North and that says this division is the weakest in the league as they take on a Cowboys team that keeps taking the steps needed toward making the Superbowl.
Lions over Jaguars - One of the regrets of the season has been the regression of Blake Bortles and the Jaguars, who showed every reason to feel they would take the next step - instead it's been the division-leading Lions - that's right, I'll say it again, division-leading Lions - who may have taken that next step.
Titans over Colts - Yes, this is a completely risky pick because of the ten straight wins by the Colts over the Titans and with the Colts coming off a bye. The Titans, however, have shown significant improvement the last few games (especially in Marcus Mariota's command of the offense and in coaching) and they've usually played the Colts bitterly tough in this ten-game stretch of lost opportunity. Look for the two teams to light up the scoreboard.
Chiefs over Buccaneers - While they haven't taken the next step, the Bucs have shown some improvement of late, it won't though be enough against a Chiefs team that is now in the lead in their division.
Cardinals over Vikings - Sam Bradford has now authored the Vikings into freefall, aided by a stunning collapse of his O-line, while the Cardinals are still well within Wildcard territory and possible division upset range.
NY Giants over Bears - The Giants are now in the Wildcard fight and the Bears are almost worse than the winless Browns.
Dolphins over Rams - It's no longer a question of whether Adam Gase can get anything going - it's now a question of whether the Dolphins can pull off an upset surge into the playoffs. Making it easier is a Rams team once again stuck in mediocrity, though pressure to start Jared Goff has eased with the win over the Jets.
Patriots over 49ers - Not the lock one assumed before the stunning Seahawks loss. The Patriots get a Niners team that played surprisingly well against the Cardinals and do so with major questions about responding to hard hitting and ability to cover anyone - with one postgame analysis after the loss to the Seahawks stating the Patriots defense is basically a lunch-pail group that takes coaching but lacks playmakers - questions that usually get answered albeit some more quickly than others; making it more intriguing is the possible absence of Rob Gronkowski for a game due to an injury. The Niners are in Bears-Browns territory in terms of being memorably worthless.
Seahawks over Eagles - The win over the Patriots has now put all the momentum back in Seattle's hands and they get an Eagles team that's played well but not consistently so.
Redskins over Packers - With word (via Mike Florio) of a swelling power struggle between Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy - and burgeoning Rumor Control Central belief McCarthy is gone after the year, though who would want to take over this burgeoning drama queen enterprise has yet to sort out - the Packers season is suddenly in serious trouble even with the mediocrity of the division and facing the weakest team in the NFC East in the Redskins. The Skins, however, host this game and Rodgers' weaknesses as a quarterback are only becoming more glaring - freelancing, not adequately reading defenses and setting up passing attacks accordingly, and of course when he falls behind by 10 or more points, more and more it's an automatic win for his opponent.
Raiders over Texans in Mexico City - Mexico City hosts the NFL for the first time in years - the last time I remember a game there, Ed Hochuli was the ref and spoke in Spanish. The Raiders for their part have turned into Speedy Gonzalez and Brock Osweiler has turned into the flustered crow who gets humiliated by Speedy, this despite leading the Texans to 6-3. The Raiders look like a division lock and appear to be the comeback team of the season.
One note on a team now in its Bye week - the San Diego Chargers now need to start phasing away from Philip Rivers and develop a new quarterback. Their playoff hopes are now gone and Rivers can no longer deliver when it's needed.
The Lions pulled off the finish of the week in stunning the Minnesota Vikings, who suddenly are no longer the conference locks they appeared to be a few weeks ago.
The NFC North has turned upside down with Detroit's win and losses by both the Vikings and the Packers - who yet again didn't get it done when Aaron Rodgers had to stage a comeback.
While the Colts won, the Titans endured yet another bitter loss despite four touchdowns by Marcus Mariota - whose three turnovers were killers. The Chargers, despite a somewhat-skimpy looking crowd at Qualcomm, are hoping the win will encourage a tax vote Tuesday to allow building of a new stadium.
The most competitive game may have been the Jets-Dolphins affair. Jay Ajayi didn't reach 100 yards but led by his rushing the Dolphins have suddenly made themselves relevant to the 2016 season, while the NY Jets - well, they've become the NY Jets again. Notable, though, is that Bryce Petty finally saw some action for the Jets.
The NFC East race meanwhile is strictly a Dallas Cowboys affair now with the Eagles faltering to the NY Giants.
The Raiders now have an undisputed statement win indicating they are back in the playoff hunt while the Broncos defense continues to be exposed as overrated, especially without Aqib Talib.
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So what to make of the season going forward?
** - The NFC South belongs to the Atlanta Falcons, with everyone else battling for hopefully a wildcard spot.
** - Of the thirteen teams that were 1-3, Indanapolis and Tennessee are still in their division hunt while Detroit is now 5-4; the Cardinals are still considered in the playoff hunt; Jacksonville has faltered and now appears out of any playoff hunt; also appearing out of the hunt are the Bucs, while the Niners absolutely are out of any contention.
** - The Packers are frauds - of course in a sense they have been throughout the Aaron Rodgers era but his propensity for just bootlegging instead of actually reading a defense is getting worse and as a result they are getting worse.
** - The weakest division in the league is the AFC North.
** - The Lions are quietly not going away and it's clear Jim Caldwell is a better coach than people want to give him credit for.
So it's on to Week Nine and the NFL enters with one of the more discussed trade deadline deals seen in awhile after Jamie Collins got shipped from the 7-1 Patriots to the winless Browns.
Buccaneers over Falcons - The Falcons are flying high after a clutch win over the Packers while the Bucs are smarting over a bitter defeat in overtime to the Oakland Raiders. The Falcons lead the league in points and Matt Ryan has been boffo so far, but this scene has played out before as the Falcons jump out early then falter late; they get a Bucs team that beat the Falcons in Week One and has won two of its last three games to go with the bitter overtime loss. The Bucs have cleaned up on turnovers the last three games with just one vs. three in that same span for the Falcons.
Dolphins over NY Jets - The Dolphins have shown some shocking improvement the last two games with 928 yards of offense, not a single turnover, and 58 points scored, this as the Jets struggled to beat a winless Browns outfit and were awful the first half of that game. Jets quarterbacks have combined for twelve INTs this year - and of course Rumor Control Central has it Tony Romo will be arriving in time for 2017.
Ravens over Steelers - The Ravens have faltered after winning their first three games, but have a three-game streak (and five of the last six meetings) over the Steelers going, this as the Steelers have gagged up four turnovers the last three games where the Ravens are plus-three in turnover differential in that same span.
Eagles over NY Giants - The Eagles have stumbled the last four weeks but are still fourth in fewest points allowed in the league facing a Giants team that has shown little ability to score and has gagged up seven turnovers in that span.
Chiefs over Jaguars - The Lions fired their offensive coordinator last season and have won ten of their last sixteen games as a result; the Ravens fired their offensive coordinator earlier this year but it's still too early to gauge if it's worked. So the Jaguars' change at coordinator bears watching against the Chiefs, who've quietly gotten into a crowded AFC West race.
Vikings over Lions - Two straight losses leaves the Vikings stewing and determined to right the ship, so look for the Vikes to come out firing against a Lions squad that's been midpack in points and points allowed but which has taken care of the football with zero turnovers the last three games.
Cowboys over Browns - The Browns look more and more like an 0-16 lost cause while Dakota Prescott has ended any competition from Tony Romo.
Saints over 49ers - Speaking of lost causes the 49ers have become just that and Colin Kaepernick in particular is a lost cause and a waste of space.
Panthers over Rams - More and more speculation about Jared Goff is circulating as the Panthers finally got off the skids last week and need to string together more wins.
Titans over Chargers - Three INTs last week and eighteen turnovers overall graphically showcase that Philip Rivers is not the answer anymore, that Mike McCoy and company were never the answer at the coaching level (with the upshot that Titans coaching washout Ken Whisenhunt is now the Chargers' offensive coordinator), and that the Chargers' season looks like another lost cause as they host a Titans team quietly building upward. The Titans aren't causing turnovers but they're not gagging them up, either - just two the last four games. San Diego's run defense could be a problem allowing just 3.7 yards per carry as they face a Titans ground game averaging 4.9 YPC. Marcus Mariota's passer rating is also slightly higher than Rivers' right now.
Colts over Packers - This at first glance has mismatch written all over it with the 3-5 Colts coming off only their third loss to the Chiefs in their last sixteen meetings facing the ostensibly mighty Packers. But the 4-3 Packers have struggled pretty much all season and are midpack in points and points allowed with yet another Aaron Rodgers failure when he has to lead a comeback coming last week. While Andrew Luck hasn't been great shakes, the Packers didn't acquit themselves all that hotly the last time they faced an AFC South team.
Raiders over Broncos - The Raiders now have the ultimate opportunity to make a statement about 2016. Derek Carr is made of sterner stuff than Philip Rivers or Brock Osweiler and to go with what looks like a mismatch of a sort at quarterback (Trevor Siemian's 6.1 yards per throw contrasts poorly with Carr's 7.2), the Broncos run defense has been shaky of late with the Raiders rushing at 4.8 yards per carry and splitting carries well between three primary backs.
Bills over Seahawks - This is my upset pick of the week. The Bills have fallen to 4-4, but the Seahawks have struggled to score and have just one win in their last three games; contrast this with a Bills offense that is in the top-ten in points, this despite two straight losses and some pedestrian efforts by Tyrod Taylor. Fear of the Seahawks appears to be waning around the league and the Bills are already ahead of where one would have thought they'd be at this point of the season.
So we thus await the raising of the curtain of Week Nine.
The New England Patriots tell us where they're going in Week Six and with Week Five wrapping up, we look ahead to Week Six.
Broncos over Chargers - The Broncos got exposed by the Falcons and Paxton Lynch showed a lot less as a quarterback than Trevor Siemian, rumored to be the starter. Regardless of which one starts for the Broncos they face a Chargers team that cannot finish any game, is minus-one in turnover differential, and is 47-54 this decade entering this game. Philip Rivers' volume stats are good, but he's not getting it done and really hasn't as shown in the 47-54 record.
Jaguars over Bears - While Brian Hoyer has shown more and more improvement compared to Jay Cutler, the Bears continue to struggle and they get a Jaguars team that finally got some momentum entering their Bye week. Hoyer's overall quality of play does offer reason for hope, but he has to start winning.
Titans over Browns - The Browns have won the last two meetings with the Titans (and five of the last eight dating to the last year of the old AFC Central) including 2014's stunning comeback win from down 28-3 after Jake Locker, who'd been head-hunted by the Browns, got knocked out after whacking his throwing hand on a player's helmet. Ironically present Browns quarterback Charlie Whitehurst took over from there and stormed the Titans to that 28-3 lead - and failed to stop the bleeding. Now Whitehurst may have to face his old team that clawed to a needed win at Miami and is showing some improvement, this as the Browns at 0-5 are now staring at 0-16.
Steelers over Dolphins - The Steelers have it going all around right now, and the Dolphins don't have anything going.
Lions over Rams - The Lions pulled off the win over a good opponent last week and now host the Rams, reeling from an ugly loss to Rex Ryan's Bills. Case Keenum's promising beginning has taken a turn for the worse when he threw two picks last week and now has five picks to just four touchdowns this season, though this matchup might favor him given he beat the Lions last season.
NY Giants over Ravens - The Ravens were the weakest 3-0 team seen in awhile and it showed with losses the last two weeks, enough that Marc Trestman was unceremoniously dumped as offensive coordinator. Marty "I'll take the wind" Mornhinweg takes over as offensive coordinator; his career as such has been uneven at best, though his teams (especially when he was with the Eagles) have a good record against a Giants team that looks mediocre at best.
Panthers over Saints - Carolina's struggle against the Bucs shows how much of a mess the Panthers are, Cam Newton or Derek Anderson, but even with that the Saints are their own mess despite good offensive numbers. They did get it done in a shootout at San Diego.
Eagles over Redskins - The Eagles despite the setback at Detroit remain in the top-3 in points and points allowed while the Redskins are stuck in the middle third in both. The Skins do have momentum on their side having won three straight and are plus-3 in turnover differential, though the Eagles are better at plus-5.
Patriots over Bengals - The rallying cry of 2014 gets renewal as the Patriots have Tom Brady back and face a Bengals team that is just 2-3 (though plus-2 in turnover differential) and only 24th in scoring. The embarrassment at Dallas showcased the Bengals are hitting another rut that has pockmarked Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton's careers.
Bills over 49ers - Maybe we better start believing in the Bills after three straight wins, and they get a reeling 49ers squad that may make the mistake of putting the worthless Colin Kaepernick back under center, this after he basically blew off preseason preparation. Believe it or not the Bills are actually decent in offense (15th in points) and Tyrod Taylor has been effective at quarterback with six touchdowns and just two INTs, though his yards per throw (6.7) leaves something to be desired.
Raiders over Chiefs - The Raiders have surged to 4-1 and Derek Carr seems to be getting ever better, presently at 11 touchdowns to just two INTs. And lost in the shuffle is the Raiders run game is at a very healthy Five yards per carry. The odd stat is they've been outgained in the air in yards and touchdowns. The Raiders host a Chiefs team that's again off to a slow start; though the Chiefs are plus-3 in turnover differential this number is skewed by the disaster that was the NY Jets. The Chiefs are 2-2 and aren't scoring a whole lot (just 50 points the last three games).
Cowboys over Packers - Dakota Prescott and company have surged to a 4-1 start and take on a Packers team that's only 12th in points and points allowed (Dallas is 9th in scoring and 8th in points allowed) and has been mildly atrocious against passing attacks (1,098 yards at 6.9 yards per throw and seven touchdowns allowed; the differential between Packers passing yards and yards allowed is over 250 yards); the Packers are also minus-one in turnover differential. The old saw about the Packers - they can frontrun like crazy and can't stage a comeback when they need one - remains true as they've outlasted the teams they've beaten rather than put them away. The Cowboys for their part aren't great shakes against passing attacks either (1,303 yards, 6.6 yards per throw, nine touchdowns allowed) and are minus-two in turnover differential; their running game has accounted for eleven scores but goes against a Packers team allowing just two yards per attempt, so this game should be a taut one.
Falcons over Seahawks - having shot down both Superbowl teams - the first team to do that in over 30 years - the Falcons stay out west and head to Seattle's king of a semi-dome. The Falcons bullied Denver's vaunted defense but take on a Seahawks defense that's noticeably better - third in points allowed, just 5.4 yards per throw allowed, and just one touchdown allowed. The big gap is in points scored as the Seahawks are only 21st; their passing game is hitting seven yards per throw but the Seahawks are stuck on the ground at just 3.3 yards per rushing attempt. The Falcons remains atop the league in points and their 25th ranking in points allowed is a little deceiving, as they're winning despite that, in at least part because they are plus-three in turnover differential.
Colts over Texans - Suddenly the Houston Texans don't look like a playoff team anymore. The Colts rallied to their second win of the season and the Texans were dismal at Minnesota and have looked out of sorts since getting humiliated in Foxboro. Start with a disturbing turnover differential - minus-four. More and more Brock Osweiler looks not like a future star but a future washout, with sluggish throwing motion, only five net yards per throw, 58% completion, and more INTs (seven) than touchdowns (six). Nor has Bill O'Brien lived up to the promise shown as Penn State's coach after the disasterous end of Joe Paterno's regime.
Cardinals over NY Jets - In the old days a down-in-the-dumps team could regain some confidence when the NY Jets came up on the schedule. The Cardinals are top-11 in points and points allowed but only 2-3 thanks to some poor play by Carson Palmer and his three losses. Drew Stanton is no solution down the road but so far he's kept it in a positive direction. He and the Cards play host to the NY Jets, who have imploded - hilariously illustrated in their plus-NINE turnover differential, this despite not turning over the ball once at Pittsburgh. The once-vaunted pass defense of the Jets has disintegrated with Darrelle Revis' career - twelve scores in the air, 8.2 net yards per throw allowed. Meanwhile Ryan Fitzpatrick has played down to his quarterbacking competence with ten picks and just five touchdowns - no wonder Rumor Control Central now has it that the Jets are working on a package to trade to Dallas for Tony Romo.
Tom Brady returned to the NFL in Week Five and him being back was a back-breaker in Week Five
Tom Brady had no rust as he killed the already-moribund Cleveland Browns, who lost their promising young quarterback and had to rely on the inept journeyman Charlie Whitehurst
The Minnesota Vikings continue their unbeaten run, pounding the Houston Texans, who may be second-guessing getting Brock Osweiler as Osweiler has been shaky the last few games
No more win streak for the Broncos and while the Falcons didn't put up the monster numbers they'd put up their previous three games their offense bullied the Broncos defense convincingly. This game also raised some doubts about Paxton Lynch, whose debut was woefully weaker than Trevor Siemian's
The Eagles finally fell and Carson Wentz threw a pick, but their start was a lot better than anyone expected and this setback shouldn't ruffle anyone in Philly. It was also an encouraging win for Matthew Stafford, though a playoff berth remains unlikely
The Bears nearly pulled off the win at Indianapolis and put up some 500 yards of offense with better-than-expected play from Brian Hoyer; Hoyer seems certain to be the permanent replacement for the inept Jay Cutler
Marcus Mariota accounted for all four Tennessee Titans touchdowns at Miami and it was a promising effort toward long-term improvement, while the Titans broke out of a competitive game and broke the back of the Dolphins; the replacement for Ryan Tannehill should already be being scouted by Dolphins personnel people
The Bungles tried to get the number of the Dallas truck that ran over them - it was driven by Dakota Prescott and Zeke Elliott, who hasn't hit the wall (unlike Chase Elliott at Charlotte again) but instead is hitting the holes. The sight of a laughing Tony Romo on the sideline was pathetic as Romo's career with the Cowboys should be over
The surprise perhaps of the day was the Bills - written off when they were 0-2 they've now won three in a row while blunting the Rams' early surge in the NFC West; suddenly the prospect of the Bills making the playoffs for the first time since 1999 is for now no longer a joke
Also no joke is the Oakland Raiders as they surged to 4-1 in perhaps the most competitive game of the day. The gagged FGA by the Chargers at the end and more INTs by Philip Rivers have become the norm for the Chargers - when they have to step up, they fail
NFL Redzone's touchdown compilation from Week Five
Julio Jones and Matt Ryan suddenly have firepower, and they'll need it to try and knock down the unbeaten Broncos
Often over the years Week Five is gut-check week for NFL teams. A rally to make the playoffs usually has to start now. But for fourteen teams entering Week Five with just one win - or winless as the Cleveland Browns are - the task seems unrealistic, so focusing on just winning the next game and trying to build something would seem the more prudent course.
Not that a rally for a 1-3 team can't happen, but maybe fifteen of the eighteen teams with two or more wins coming in appear ready to start a springboard with a Week Five win. So we try again with picks -
Cardinals over 49ers - Two 1-3 teams clash on Thursday Night and injury to Carson Palmer throws a wrench into the works for the Cardinals. I'm not confident as of Tuesday that Carson Palmer will play, which leaves things in the hands of the unimpressive Drew Stanton. Working for the Cardinals is the Niners have plummeted after their Week One win and Blaine Gabbert has fallen to earth. Inevitably the talk of starting Colin Kaepernick will start; having proven he is not a leader or a competent quarterback (doing so with his publically poor work ethic) Kaepernick is not the answer.
Vikings over Texans - The Vikings continue to prove they're for real with another dismantling of an opponent, and now they get a Texans team that got the win after getting embarrassed at Foxboro; however the Texans didn't show much in the way of closing power, blew a 14-point lead before a punt-return score put the game just out of Tennessee's reach, and are in the bottom-five in points scored with six INTs by Brock Osweiler - suddenly we may be relearning why the Broncos didn't fight to keep him. Contrast this with Sam Bradford, with a passer rating over 100 and this gives a defense better than the vaunted Broncos defense (the Vikings are second in fewest points allowed) what it needs to work with.
Falcons over Broncos - Yes it's a rash prediction given the Broncos are defending champs, fifth in both points and points allowed, and unbeaten going against a Falcons team 29th in points allowed. The Falcons, though, do not turn the ball over and have forced five turnovers, the same number the Broncos have given up so far - with both teams at plus-three in turnover differential. Assuming Trevor Siemian is out after getting carted off on the meat wagon at Tampa Bay, Paxton Lynch showed he can pick right up where Siemian left off, so there should be no worry at quarterback. Keep in mind when the Broncos faced the Panthers, a better offense than what the Bucs, Bengals, and Colts delivered - the Broncos escaped with a win as opposed to decisively defeating them. If Matt Ryan pulls it off he will finally have taken that true next step.
Redskins over Ravens - Joe Flacco got it done - barely - the first three games but failed when he had to get it going against the resurgent Raiders. Now he, his below-80 passer rating, and the Ravens' minus-one turnover differential face a Deadskins team that's plus-three in turnover differential and has won its last two.
Titans over Dolphins - The 1-3 Dolphins are minus-five in turnover differential; the 1-3 Titans are minus-four. The shocker stat is Ryan Tannehill has a better passer rating than Marcus Mariota - while Mariota is just 73.9, Tannehill is at 87.3. Yet every week the Titans fight to the very end where the Dolphins have shown little fight outside of a surprising and ultimately futile rally at Foxboro. The Titans also have an edge in rushing the ball with over 500 yards and a very healthy 4.7 yards per carry against a Dolphins run defense that's already allowed over 500 yards.
Colts over Bears - This battle of 1-3 teams may be tougher than it looks after the Bears pulled off the win last week. Brian Hoyer is now quarterback and has surged past 100 in passer rating with four touchdowns and no picks, outclassing the incompetent Jay Cutler. Hoyer gets the chance to continue his redemption facing a Colts team that failed to finish a rally against the Jaguars.
Steelers over NY Jets - The Steelers exploded last week and now get fresh meat in a falling Jets team. Ryan Fitzpatrick's collapse was expected, but not necessarily this quickly or this graphically at nine INTs the last two games.
Eagles over Lions - Carson Wentz has yet to show any weakness with five touchdowns and no picks, and he faces a Lions team off to yet another dismal start. Matthew Stafford's passer rating has been good - 93.9 - and he's cut down on turnovers, yet he's not getting the job done, and he faces an Eagles team that leads the league in fewest points allowed and is second in points scored.
Patriots over Browns- The wildcard aspect of this game is the Browns won the last meeting in Cleveland (in 2010) and the Patriots needed to rally in preposterous fashion against them in 2013. The Browns also are seeing some legitimate quarterbacking out of Cody Kessler. Getting Tom Brady back is just in time for a Patriots team angry at getting embarrassed by loudmouth Rex Ryan and after he sent his players to disrupt Patriots pregame warmups; that indignity usually leads to a Patriots win the next game.
Raiders over Chargers - Derek Carr is getting it done and Philip Rivers is not, and it's more and more looking like he can't anymore. This should be a high-scoring affair.
Rams over Bills - The Rams are 3-1 and Case Keenum, despite some subpar numbers, is overall getting it done. The Bills have rallied for two straight wins but Rex Ryan's culture inevitably flames out, and usually in rather spectacular fashion.
Cowboys over Bengals - The Cowboys behind Dakota Prescott look more and more like the real deal, and they face a Bengals squad that is still good, but not up to being great.
Packers over NY Giants - Eli Manning's encouraging start is history and while the Packers are still frontrunning phonies the Giants do not look good enough to make them pay.
Panthers over Buccaneers - The Panthers are now a mess, with injury to Cam Newton, but the Bucs have faltered with eight INTs by Jameis Winston and a disasterous minus-nine turnover differential. The promise of Winston's rookie season hasn't translated to anything, and that's a shame. With both teams 1-3 playoff promise likewise appears gone.
All of Week 2's touchdowns as we count down to Week 3
The NFL enters Week Three amid some genuine shockers but also amid a surprising - and surprisingly sharp - drop in TV ratings; explanations for why have varied between boycotting of Colin Kaepernick, boycotting of Roger Goodell, the absence of Tom Brady, the retirement of Peyton Manning. Certainly there is likely some element of all involved. A correction was probably overdue so right now one should not be excessively worried.
Certainly it's not for lack of competitive games; the first two weeks have been strikingly well-played and competitive, and expectations have thus been heightened for Week Three. Picks for the week -
Patriots over Texans - Jacoby Brissett has to start with the out-of-left-field shoulder injury to Jimmy Garappolo and his unplanned foray into the NFL against the Dolphins showed his rawness but also showed there is legitimate ability there. He will certainly have better preparation knowing he's going onto the field so leading more than two scoring drives should be a given, though one should keep an eye on Stephen Gostkowski after his stunning gag of a makeable late FGA. They face a Houston team that's clearly on its way to a strong season with Brock Osweiler, a guy clearly not intimidated by facing the Patriots, but with a defensive front led by JJ Watt that isn't any better than the Cardinals and Dolphins fronts the Patriots O-line has manhandled already, plus Watt has been decidedly quiet against the Patriots in the past, notably last season in his own house.
Cardinals over Bills - The Cardinals showed they mean business by laying 40 on the Bucs and they go to New Era Stadium for a Bills opponent that fired their offensive coordinator but that put up 31 points last time out. The Ryan brothers are buffoons, though, so they will find a way to lose.
Panthers over Vikings - The Vikings are onto something this year after stunning the Packers, but they go to a Panthers team that was stewing over the lost opportunity at Denver and responded by breaking out of a competitive game against the Niners and turning it into a massacre. A key matchup to keep an eye on is Sam Bradford to Stefon Diggs, who exploded against the Packers.
Broncos over Bengals - This one I think will be tighter than some may expect. Clearly there is no collapse for the Broncos as Trevor Siemian has already proven doubters wrong with poised play, but this is his first road trip and he goes to a Bengals team hitting its home opener. The Bengals got embarrassed last week at Pittsburgh and have the talent to fight back given the opponent, the defending champs, and one recalls the last time the Broncos visited Cincinnati. The matchup to watch is AJ Green vs Aqib Talib.
Lions over Packers - This is an upset pick for me; both teams are 1-1 and both are coming off losses. The Lions, though, face a Packers team that has now lost four of its last five division meetings and hasn't won a home game against the division since 2014. The Packers also have signs of locker room dissension with one of Aaron Rodgers' O-linemen calling him out publically after the loss at Minnesota. Rodgers' inability to lead a comeback when he has to erase a gap of at least two scores showed up again at Minnesota.
Ravens over Jaguars - Suddenly the Baltimore Ravens are stringing together wins again after a head-shaking 2015, while the Jaguars still have not taken that next step, and looked awful at San Diego last week.
Dolphins over Browns - Only the Browns. They go to a shellshocked Dolphins team hitting its home opener with a revamped Joe Robbie Stadium - now sporting sponsorship from Hard Rock - and with a quarterback in Ryan Tannehill playing his way out of the NFL. But the Browns have bigger problems - they fell apart against the hated Ravens and such collapses usually bode ill for the season.
NY Giants over Redskins - They didn't do it against the Cowboys and now the Redskins face a 2-0 Giants squad that's eking out grinders of wins.
Andre Johnson's game-winner at Detroit
Titans over Raiders - This could be the highest-scoring game on this week's slate as Marcos Mariota and Derek Carr lit it up in their preseason matchup and their teams are 1-1; Carr has exploded the Raiders to 63 points scored while Mariota staged a memorable comeback from down two scores to beat the Lions; his touchdown to Andre Johnson was an absolute thing of beauty. Anyone for a Titans-Raiders playoff meet?
Seahawks over Forty-Niners - The Seahawks are struggling out of the gate having lost on the road again to the Rams, and they face a Niners squad that Blaine Gabbert has made into a team that's not the joke their backup quarterback has become. The Seahawks did win their home opener and the Niners come back from the East Coast and Russell Wilson is the kind of quarterback who can start turning things around fast.
Buccaneers over Rams - Tampa Bay's obliteration by the Cardinals was the punch in the face that should motivate them to lash it out against a Rams team traveling from the West Coast to the East and which has shown zero offense.
Chargers over Colts - There is an ominous sign for the Colts. The opinion has been expressed that the Colts made a fatal mistake signing Chuck Pagano instead of Bruce Arians, but the real warning sign is Andrew Luck may have plateaued in 2012-13 and simply can never be the transcendent quarterback his talent promised he'd be. He lit up the scoreboard at home against the Lions and still lost, then struggled against a Broncos team he'd dominated. San Diego has won six of the last seven meetings with the Colts, and Philip Rivers is 1-0 against Andrew Luck so far.
Chiefs over NY Jets - The Chiefs are smarting after losing to the Houston Texans, and they face a high-scoring NY Jets team that's looking like a team going for the playoffs. I doubt Andy Reid will let the loss in Houston carry over to this meeting with the Jets, a team Reid has yet to lose to.
Eagles over Steelers - The Steelers have a potent offense and a proven championship quarterback, but in the Eagles they face a team that's well ahead of expectations and has a quarterback in Carson Wentz who's looking like the real deal.
Cowboys over Bears - Why John Fox keeps Jay Cutler remains baffling as he is a failure, as Dak Prescott steadily proves himself to be one to watch down the road.
Saints over Falcons - Neither team has proven they're up to a playoff bid, and one should start to be concerned that Drew Brees is no longer the elite competitor. Matt Ryan certainly is not an elite anything even with a strong win at Oakland.
The NFL hit Week Two and the surprises of the season have already started.
The first Thursday Night game of the year was the most competitive Thursday Night game in years - it got weirder as offensive coordinator Greg Roman was fired, reportedly by ownership - a bad move as meddlesome ownership never succeeds.
No surprise hit harder than Jimmy Garappolo's shoulder injury after torching the Dolphins
Jacoby Brissett had to come in cold and it showed - what also showed is there is legitimate quarterbacking talent here
The Titans erased a 12-point gap to stun a high-flying Lions squad in their home opener
The questions must be asked more and more about Andrew Luck and whether he plateaued as a quarterback in his rookie season, while Trevor Siemien is establishing himself with the Broncos and Aqib Talib exploded
Another young quarterback is starting to get something good going as R. Dakota Prescott grabbed his first career win
The Vikings won their second straight over the Packers despite a serious injury to Adrian Peterson, an injury that may not be as onerous as it appeared. It also showcased the continuing weakness of Aaron Rodgers in his inability to lead a comeback down by two or more touchdowns - and Rodgers' bad habit of trying to extend plays too much got called out by Packers O-lineman T.J. Lang -
"Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to blame someone else. We definitely have to be better up front, but it felt like there were a couple of plays there where it starts to get five (to) six (to)seven seconds, and it can be a little frustrating at times."
Those who will criticize Lang need to keep in mind Rodgers' career-long weakness when having to lead a comeback, having won just four games in his career when trailing by more than one score.
The news for the San Diego Chargers was not their 38-14 massacre of the Jaguars - the news from CBS' pregame show is Chargers ownership has given up on the city and is prepping to play in LA in 2017, presumably Carson, CA - which raises anew why the NFL allows such nonsense and why these teams don't get the hint from the Dolphins and spend the money to refurbish their existing arenas.
Only the Browns, up 20-0 to a Ravens team that has - quietly - stormed to 2-0
Remember when Blaine Gabbert was a failure with the Jaguars? Despite getting crushed at the end by a Panthers team still stewing over blowing a winnable game at Denver, the Niners have shown more fight than we thought they might have and it's clear Colin Kaepernick's bitch act is just the flailing of a guy who can't play
With the Seahawks suddenly struggling the Cardinals are taking early control of the NFC West
With the release of varied NFL Preview magazines and six weeks to go before training camps begin it's not a bad thing to speculate on where the varied teams in the National Football League may go season-wise, so we present for whatever it is worth a speculative look at the coming 2016 season -
First is needed a correction to Clark Judge in his introduction to the Lindy's Sports Pro Football 2016 Preview where he pushes the myth that defense wins championships and cites the 2013 Seahawks and 2015 Broncos as evidence and claims the league's top-ranked defense is 12-2 in Superbowls. "It's not a coincidence, it's a trend."
No Mr. Judge, it's a myth.
The Seahawks in 2013 had a superior playoff quarterback in Russell Wilson and defeated Peyton Manning in a playoff game - that is not a coincidence, that is the trend - the norm. Peyton Manning was the weakest playoff quarterback since Dan Marino and his twelfth playoff loss typified the fact he was in over his head in playoff football - it was the playoff wins that were the aberration, despite eventually reaching fourteen playoff wins; the nine one-and-outs in the playoffs (five of them with a first-round bye) were what defined Peyton Manning's career.
The 2015 Broncos defense's only challenge was from quality quarterbacks, and in the playoffs they beat a shaky Steelers team exposed as such by barely escaping the inept Bengals, then the Broncos escaped themselves after their defense was speared in the heart for the tying touchdown by Brady and the Patriots. When the Superbowl arrived Peyton played as bad as advertised - Cam Newton of the Panthers played worse, not because of the Broncos overrated defense but because the fact of being in the Superbowl suddenly caught up to Newton as it had Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, Stan Humphries, Neil O'Donnell, Kerry Collins, Rich Gannon, Matt Hasselback, and all the other incompetent Superbowl quarterbacks before.
And with salary cap problems illustrated by a public contract fight with Von Miller, the Broncos enter 2016 shakier than one might expect a defending champ.
So we look at the thirty-two teams of the league entering 2016:
NATIONAL FOOTBALL CONFERENCE:
NFC EAST:
Dallas Cowboys - Tony Romo is back and so are Dez Bryant and Orlando Scandrick, and Dallas drafted much-hyped back Zeke Elliott. The problem is Tony Romo is Tony Romo, a doltish volume stats whore who plays like Brett Favre - freelance it, huck the ball with arm strength, and hope someone goes and gets it. Favreball didn't produce in the playoffs a whole lot and Tony Romo's version of Favreball has never worked. People look at the 2014 Cowboys and how well they ran the ball - it didn't make any difference in the end. In no-huddle-type offenses the Cowboys are usually good, but they've never sustained anything. Jason Garrett remains Jerry Jones' bobo rather than an actual credible coach.
New York Giants - They have a new coach in Ben McAdoo but they also have Steve Spagnuolo as defensive coordinator and his return added nothing to a weak Giants defense, while Eli Manning put up highlight reel scores with Odell Beckham to go with 35 overall touchdowns and just fourteen INTs, but it never translated to impressive success and Beckham proved a weak-minded brat in his fight with Josh Norman in the Panthers game. The Giants keep losing a plethora of players to injuries and remain a non-contender for the playoffs until they can prove otherwise.
Philadelphia Eagles - The Eagles abandoned the Chip Kelly experiment and drafted Carson Wentz to redshirt for 2016. Sam Bradford gets another shot after team-highs for completions and percentage but enters the season after a head-shaking holdout during OTAs. The Eagles won three of their last five games so they enter 2016 with some momentum, but Bradford can spoil that if he doesn't grow the heck up.
Washington Redskins - Not ready for prime time division champs nonetheless saw a legitimate program take root under Jay Gruden and Kirk Cousins. They worked to shore up the defense but that's a wait-and-see prospect. The focus is on Cousins to improve his 29 touchdowns and 4,100-plus yards and deliver more than nine wins. Clearly for the first time in the Dan Snyder Deadskins era there appears to be a credible program in place.
NFC NORTH:
Chicago Bears - John Fox has a history of marked improvement in his teams in his second year as coach. The issue remains Jay Cutler, the long-standing flop with a big arm and worthless volume stats; though he showed some improvement in 2015 he didn't make the Bears winners at just 6-10; four of their six wins came against losing teams, but a shocking win in Green Bay adds some luster going forward.
Detroit Lions - How important is coaching? The Titans fired their coach and opened their new coach's stay with their biggest comeback win in terms of morale-boost in years; the Colts finally got through to Andrew Luck to start playing smarter football; the Lions fired Joe Lombardi after losing six of their first seven games and under Jim Bob Cooter as coordinator the Lions won six of their last eight games beginning with a shocker of a win in Green Bay. While it would be wrong to say the Lions have been good against quality opponents - Matthew Stafford remains abysmal against good teams - his improved play does augur well for 2016. Jim Caldwell has long been dismissed as a cypher; he may surprise people in 2016.
Green Bay Packers - It is striking how much weight is put in some analyses to missing Jordy Nelson as an excuse for the Packers' 10-6 season and playoff loss at Arizona. The reality remains Aaron Rodgers is considered a great quarterback and the fact is he's overrated. He did win twice in games where he trailed by more than one score, but in the end he couldn't lead comebacks even when he led a comeback, as in Arizona where an absurd desperation heave tied the game only for Carson Palmer to kill the Packers in three overtime plays. It's been more of the same for the Packers from Day One of the Rodgers era so the playoffs look like a realistic goal but advancing anywhere in them doesn't look realistic.
Minnesota Viings - People will look at Adrian Peterson spanking opposing defenses and ignore that Teddy Bridgewater put up efficient quarterbacking efforts, Jerick McKinnon had more Yards Per Carry than Peterson - 5.2 YPC to Peterson's 4.5 - and Bridgewater may be allowed more aggression in his passing game, this atop his 4.4 YPC as a runner. His passer rating needs to improve. There is reason for optimism for the Vikings as they enter a new stadium.
NFC SOUTH:
Atlanta Falcons - Matt Ryan is not the answer. That's clear now in his 18-30 record the last three seasons and just one forgettable playoff win in four tries. The Falcons worked to improve line play but the reality remains Ryan has never been the franchise-defining quarterback he was supposed to be. The best quarterback in Falcons history remains Chris Chandler; Matt Ryan cannot compete with Chandler's 1998 "Dirty Birds" season, or Michael Vick's tumultuous time with the Falcons that produced two legit playoff runs. So the Falcons need to start working on a replacement for Ryan, someone who can actually handle high-pressure football and in beating good teams.
Carolina Panthers - Why did the Panthers lose the Superbowl to a worthless opponent? Because Cam Newton was overwhelmed by the fact of being in the Superbowl once the game actually started. That's actually grounds for optimism because it follows the path of Newton's NFL career - after a shaky period in 2012 he rebounded the second half of that season; after a bad playoff loss he learned from mistakes and began winning playoff games in 2014. The Panthers have taken over an NFC South that had not had consecutive champions since it started in 2002.
New Orleans Saints - People point to a defense that was gashed for 45 touchdowns in 2015. That certainly is an area of need and the Saints strove to address it, but offensively they put up yards but not as many points as one would expect of this offense (eighth in scoring, hardly bad but less than impressive for this team). Home field is no advantage here (just 9-7 the last two years) and the Saints got slighted by Roger Goodell when he pointedly rejected their Superbowl host bid in favor of cities building new stadiums (and when's that gravy train finally going to end?) Drew Brees is still good, but his inability to elevate the Saints beyond back-to-back 7-9 seasons should be somewhat disconcerting.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The Bucs fired Lovie Smith and their new quarterback goes into his sophomore year with Dick Koetter as coach. Jameis Winston proved himself someone to take seriously in 2015 and now comes the next step he must take. Defensively they didn't stop other teams from scoring but surprisingly did hold their own in yardage allowed. Losing their last four games in 2015 with three of them against teams made irrelevant to the season before December was a bad finish.
NFC WEST:
Arizona Cardinals - They won a playoff game and did so in spectacular fashion with Carson Palmer - this is unprecedented for Palmer in a career that began with his redshirt 2003 with the Bengals and then started for real in 2004. Bruce Arians has made the Cardinals something unprecedented in their history - a genuine threat for the biggest prize. Palmer is a passer with over 4,600 yards last year, and lost in that shuffle is the Cards got some productive rushing between ex-Titan Chris Johnson and newcomer David Johnson. The Carolina massacre in the NFC Title Game remains fresh on their minds.
Los Angeles Rams - With stories now emerging that the league itself wasn't sure LA wanted a team (see ATHLON SPORTS' NFL Preview for a good write-up on that front), it makes the ripoff of St. Louis all the more head-shaking and the fact of LA having a team the city's laughable sports history has proven it doesn't want makes the Rams' 2016 season all the more problematic. The decision to trade with the Titans for the top draft pick - Jeff Fisher negotiating with his old team in the draft is the definition of irony - got the Rams Jared Goff. Goff better produce - Nick Foles and Case Keenum offer no serious threat beyond not being rookies - for a Rams team that's had to go through four seasons of rebuilding; they've won just enough for Fisher to hang on so far. The running game revolves around Todd Gurley so far, but Tavon Austin actually had better YPC - an eye-popping 8.3 to Gurley's still-strong 4.8 with four ground scores - and caught 473 yards and five touchdowns worth of aerial offense. One also wonders if Kenny Britt will recapture the spectacle of his best moments of 2009 and 2010 with the Titans - his nineteen yards per reception in 2015 needs to produce more than just three touchdowns.
San Francisco 49ers - Proof that football and sex go together is word that ex-Niners coach Jim Harbaugh and his wife will welcome another child into their lives - it's a humorous comment on the state of the Niners that their ex-coach is having more fun than they are. The Niners enter training camp after an ugly dispute between them and Colin Kaepernick and indication Blaine Gabbert, mid-season replacement for Kaepernick, will be the starter. It's a restart for ex-Eagle Chip Kelly, fired after a frustrating 2015 in Philly that followed two productive seasons. He'll have plenty to work on, including who Gabbert or whoever will throw the ball to, with unknown Quinton Patton going from third receiver and one touchdown to possible starter. Getting back to any kind of decent status looks to be a mountain.
Seattle Seahawks - Starting 4-5 and proving to everyone why they threw on goal-to-go against the Patriots when Marshawn Lynch (again) failed to convert a short-yardage first down in overtime at the Rams had everyone wondering if the Seahawks had shot their bolt. Instead Russell Wilson added volume stats to his quarterbacking effectiveness in a shootout loss to the Cardinals and a shootout win over the Steelers; the Hawks put up at least thirty points in seven of their last eight regular-season games and Wilson led a game comeback effort at Carolina in the playoffs.
AMERICAN FOOTBALL CONFERENCE: AFC EAST:
Buffalo Bills - More of the same from the Ryan brothers. "We're so wonderful" is the gist of what they say, and Sexy Rexy's players, as always happens with "player coaches", responded by becoming lazier, to where Sammy Watkins came out and said there is a lack of discipline in the locker room. Tyrod Taylor showed some fight in going 8-6 as starter but wasn't all that impressive in the pocket; the Bills lost four of their last eight games and the only quality opponents they beat in that span were the Jets (twice) and the Texans.
Miami Dolphins - Ryan Tannehill has gotten new linemen, new receivers, new running backs, and new coaches, and he's never been anything beyond mediocre. Adam Gase was brought in because of his work with Jay Cutler, with no one seeming to notice Cutler never won with Gase. Signing Ndamuking Suh didn't make the Dolphins better defensively and signing Bills malcontent Mario Williams doesn't look like a smart move either.
New England Patriots - Always the Patriots. Twelve wins a season is a given; reaching the AFC Title Game has become a given. A lot of people are assuming Tom Brady will in fact miss the first four games of 2016 due to Goodell's personal vendetta, ignoring the court injunction Brady will certainly get while his suit against Goodell continues. Brady has more people to throw to in Chris Hogan, Nate Washington, and Martellus Bennett. Washington is underrated good, showing true playmaking power with the Titans. Dion Lewis' return gives the Patriots' high-speed small-ball attack a weapon it missed after his injury. Brady has to work with them and commit to working with them, as the AFC Title Game showed anew the need for Brady to stop leaning on Edelman, Gronkowski, and Amendola to move the offense.
New York Jets - Ryan Fitzpatrick did something stunning in 2015 in making the Jets a good team and also a more professional locker room, but he failed when it mattered most and has been mouthing off for a contract beyond his objective football value, this even without Muhammad Wilkerson mouthing off as well. It leaves the Jets in yet another pickle as they enter the 20th anniversary of the darkest period in their history, the 1-15 season of 1996, and with this anniversary showing infinitely greater promise.
AFC NORTH:
Baltimore Ravens - Now what? The Bengals collapsed to 5-11 in 2015 and Joe Flacco looked shaky when he was healthy, with just fourteen touchdowns and twelve INTs. Defensively the Ravens weren't much either, allowing forty touchdowns between the air and the ground. Their front office long ago earned a reputation for solid team building but they're in unfamiliar territory now - the last time they faced a serious rebuild they changed coaches and quarterbacks and surged to five straight playoff runs; now they still have John Harbaugh and Flacco; in the draft they looked to shore up the O-line with Ronnie Stanley and the subsequent release of Eugene Monroe.
Cincinnati Bengals - The Bengals say Andy Dalton is their starter, but AJ McCarron showed something in the playoffs that Dalton has proven he doesn't have - the poise and clutch ability for playoff football. If there isn't a quarterback controversy in the Bengals organization then their ought to be. Dalton has proven himself and then some in the regular season; he's also proven he can't handle playoff football. Hard to imagine but sixteen years ago the Bengals were mocked around the league for incompetent front office work and a seeming refusal to work harder to win. That the Bengals have become a team with the juice to go far in the playoffs makes their lack of playoff success under Marvin Lewis all the more galling. The division does not look up to upending the Bengals in 2016.
Cleveland Browns - Moneyball guru Paul DePodesta has arrived with the Browns and if nothing else the Browns should be commended for trying something completely out of the box for football - trying to apply the often-bizarre statistical analyses that were credited with revolutionizing baseball with the Oakland Athletics. With just 28 wins this decade the Browns' problems are in the "where do you want to start?" category. Quarterback has been THE issue and they enter 2016 with the Johnny Manziel mistake acknowledged and Johnny Freelance fired. Josh McCown is nothing to be confident in going forward; the Browns are hoping Hue Jackson can begin the process - with the pressure increased after the Cavaliers stunned the sports world and gave Cleveland its first major league sports title (and second pro sports title overall after the Lake Erie Monsters won the American Hockey League Calder Cup Trophy days before LeBron James' comeback triumph) since the Browns shot down Johnny Unitas and the Colts in 1964.
Pittsburgh Steelers - Have the Steelers gone into long-term decline with Ben Roethlisberger? They've won 21 games the last two seasons but just one playoff game and that was a gag-job by the Bengals rather than a win the Steelers could feel good about. Roethlisberger is the clear starter but a curiosity is Landry Jones, who showed some moxie in spot duty in 2015, his highlight coming in the Raiders game. An issue has been coach Mike Tomlin's seeming inflexibility in what defense to run, and though 11th in the league in fewest points allowed the Steelers weren't impressive in turnover differential.
AFC SOUTH: Houston Texans - They won seven of their last nine games and won the division, then were pummeled in the playoffs. So they went out and got Brock Osweiler from the Broncos. Now Bill O'Brien, considered a quarterback guru for his work with Tom Brady, has to make Osweiler into the winner he was for five of his seven games in Denver instead of the faltering first-timer benched in the Broncos' panic-attack at the end of the season. Defensively the Texans appear to be going somewhere under ex-Patriot coordinator Romeo Crennel.
Indianapolis Colts - A quiet quarterback controversy developed there last year as the scuttlebutt has it higher-ups in the Colts had their eyes opened by Matt Hasselback's duty as starter with injury to Andrew Luck; Luck was reckless with the ball and wanted to throw deeper while Hasselback ran a more controlled offense, going 5-3 to Luck's 2-5. For 2016 the focus will be on Luck, and whether 2015 was a sign of decline, especially as the Colts have another coordinator in his headset. The Colts' tradition of being gashed on defense continued with some 6,000 yards allowed and one doesn't feel confident that will change.
Jacksonville Jaguars - The Jaguars quietly have built a team that looks to become a breakout surprise in 2016. Offensive line play has been an issue with 2013 draft pick Luke Joeckel, and the Jags hope they've upgraded at the line; they certainly have a quarterback in Blake Bortles who is proving he can become a winner. The next step is often the hardest, though, with expectations now higher here.
Tennessee Titans - Marcus Mariota only won three games in his rookie year but his overall play was more than enough to feel confident the Titans after stop-and-start seasons 2011-13 and the Ken Whisenhunt fiasco can now get something positive going. The Titans under their new GM Jon Robinson went rush-heavy between DeMarco Murray's acquisition from the Eagles and the drafting of Heisman winner Derrick Henry - more than a few railbirds noted the Titans franchise's success with Heisman running backs in Earl Campbell and Eddie George. Getting the O-line better has been a curiously chronic problem. The Titans say they want to rush the ball more but while passing attacks have opening up running games "ground and pound" won't work for success; it will be Mariota who determines how far the Titans go.
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos - The Broncos bluffed their way to a Superbowl and now are stuck with Mark Sanchez, and even without the Buttfumble Sanchez proved with the Eagles that he is not a competent quarterback, this to go with a burgeoning contract spat with Von Miller. The Broncos did upgrade their O-line with ex-Seahawk Russell Okong, and he may be needed more if Sanchez as expected flames out and rookie Paxton Lynch becomes a starter. The Broncos look more like the mess that went 6-10 in 1999, the last time the Broncos were defending champs.
Kansas City Chiefs - Alex Smith and the Chiefs just keep on keeping on, winning eleven straight after losing five straight, and this includes the first playoff win for the Chiefs since 1993 - and it was fitting that playoff win came at Houston, where Joe Montana authored Kansas City's last playoff win. The O-line has been a constant shuffle but the Chiefs' running game by committee looks to be working. Getting more fire out of Smith remains the key going forward.
Oakland Raiders - That Mark Davis looks to have one foot out the door to Las Vegas is head-spinning given Vegas' dismal nature for hosting pro sports - their only football connection was the Arena League's Vegas Gladiators, now in Cleveland, while the Motor Speedway only draws decently for NASCAR. The Raiders certainly have a roster that can now go places after a very promising 7-9 with superb effort by Derek Carr. What should also be obvious is Jack Del Rio can coach and he looks to be the fit the Raiders have lacked for over a decade. One can go radical and pick them to challenge Kansas City for the division.
San Diego Chargers - Stuck in neutral, the Chargers had a dismal 2015 and Philip Rivers no longer looks to be the answer, this atop an attempt to move to LA that never looked serious, and with a tax vote in November for a new stadium, as though the Chargers can't upgrade Qualcomm Stadium instead (the same is true of the Raiders, who have $500 million for a Vegas stadium that's better used for upgrading what they presently have). With all that, Rivers does not look to lead a comeback, and neither does Mike McCoy, who has guided the Chargers downward and downward. They're supposed to be better than 4-12, but realistically they don't look like they are.
With all that, the clock counts toward training camps and preseason.
The NFL continues to have to deal with armchair lawyering as it plods toward Week 3, between continued media scrutiny of Adrian Peterson, the appeal by Ray Rice of his suspension, and the league's appointment of three experts in domestic violence to the league office to handle these issues for players. The cluster-blank that has been the issue showcases the first blunder of Roger Goodell, for when he became commissioner he vowed to crack down on players' off-field misconduct - and he has nothing to show for it.
Basically seemingly the only one who did anything right here is Ray Rice; no one else - the league, media, etc. - has shown much rationality. It might have been a case where the best reaction was to leave it alone.
Peterson was briefly reinstated by the Vikings but after the expected fury of grandstanding (lowlighted by Budweiser's phony press release on the issue) he was in effect suspended with pay until his issue is resolved, and so was Greg Hardy of the Panthers.
There nonetheless remain games to be played -
*****
Falcons over Buccaneers - The Falcons right now are fighting for second in the NFC South and the Bucs come to the Georgia Dome off a bitter loss to the Rams. The Falcons crashed back to earth in Cincinnati but are still better right now than the Bucs, and should get to 2-1.
Chargers over Bills
- E.J. Manuel has surprised some people right now, but in the Chargers the Bills get an opponent that got back on track with a strong win over the Seahawks.
Browns over Ravens - These are not the same old Browns, and their win over the Saints combined with erasing a 24-point gap to the hated Steelers shows it. The Ravens are better than they were last year, but the Browns have momentum.
Titans over Bengals - I'm going a bit on a limb here after Cincy went 2-0 and the Titans fell to earth against a mediocre Dallas squad. The Bengals are currently first in scoring and third in fewest points allowed, but the Titans are a better team than that Dallas loss would indicate. We can expect some serious scoring here.
Cowboys over Rams - The Cowboys got a surprising and stout win last week, and their run game led the way. The Rams haven't been stellar in run defense so far and still lack a quarterback one can feel confident in.
Lions over Packers - Both teams are 1-1 - but then the whole damned division is 1-1. Detroit got stomped by a very good Panthers squad - and Green Bay is not Carolina. Expect a Lions rebound here.
Texans over NY Giants - The Texans are clawing back under Bill O'Brien, the NY Giants are collapsing again under Tom Coughlin.
Colts over Jaguars - The Jags ran into the ultimate shocker of a buzzsaw at Washington and this game should be a lot closer. The Colts overall still have too much and should win a 38-35-type game.
Saints over Vikings - The Vikings face a Saints team in need of that first win to get back on track; I'm not sure Adrian Peterson would have helped them. The way Matt Cassel got abused by the Patriots, I'm not sure how well he'll rebound against a Saints team with some desperation on its side.
Patriots over Raiders - New England's periodic Darryl Stingley Memorial game against the Raiders will be an easy win over a demoralized Oakland squad that saw Charles Woodson in effect call out the team for being abysmal following the loss to the Texans. The issue still surrounding the Patriots remains the crispness of the offense, as it struggled to score against the Vikings and receivers Danny Amendola and Brandon Lafell have been absent from production. Brady's targets need to spread more.
Eagles over Redskins - Hold the phone - the Redskins now have Kirk Cousins as quarterback and he is what they need, especially in a Jay Gruden offense with which Robert Griffin III has not been effective. The Eagles are still the favorites in the NFC East but the Redskins suddenly have something to say about that.
Cardinals over 49ers - Now we have to start questioning if the Niners really are starting to falter after blowing it against the Bears while the Cardinals started their backup against the Giants and still won by two scores.
Seahawks over Broncos - The Seahawks got punched in the mouth and Richard Sherman got beaten repeatedly by the Chargers, to where he skipped postgame pressers out of embarrassment. The Broncos, though, have struggled to close out games and Peyton Manning is not as sharp as before right now, while Russell Wilson remains the better quarterback.
Dolphins over Chiefs - Failing at the doorstep of forcing overtime in Denver looks like the kind of loss that sends a team into year-long decline. The Dolphins meanwhile get the Chiefs at what looks like the right juncture to rebound from another bad loss at Buffalo.
Panthers over Steelers - Face the blunt truth, Steelers fans - your team is fundamentally flawed and getting worse instead of better, while the Panthers are not letting a new receiving corps slow them down.
Bears over NY Jets - Calling a timeout before what was the tying touchdown is so New York Jets of them, and one has to ask how with all the things leading up to this the Jets cannot fire Rex Ryan and his staff. Not that I trust Jay Cutler - he's a puss with volume stats - but the Bears did something good last week and that carries momentum against a team that has never been about substance or discipline but about flash, stars, and freelancing - and is thus as bad as advertised.
*****
We certainly hope cooler heads - and smarter approaches to these problems - prevail in the NFL here.
