Playoff Races Now Approach

The NFL's 2017 season is now hitting the stretch for the playoffs, and that pressure has shown.

The meltdown of Kansas City's season was personified when Marcus Peters threw a referee's flag into the grandstands.    The switch of playcalling on offense by the Chiefs helped in that they scored 31 points in one of the games of the year..............

................but Alex Smith's inability to seize control to win the game showed again, and suddenly San Diego is in position to steal the division.

If that scenario sounds familiar, it is, albeit the last time San Diego helped cost the Chiefs the AFC West was 2013 in the immortal Seyi Ajirotutu game.  


Here are the top seeds in the AFC -

North - Steelers - bye
East - Patriots - bye

South - Titans
West - Chiefs

WC1 - Jaguars
WC2 - Ravens

Remaining teams at .500 -
Chargers
Bills
Raiders


While in the NFC -

North - Vikings - bye
East - Eagles - bye

West - Rams
South - Saints

WC1 - Seahawks
WC2 - Panthers


Remaining teams .500 or better -
Falcons
Lions
Packers
Cowboys


So realistically we have four spots in the AFC with seven teams in contest, and three in the NFC with five teams in contest.   Every Seahawk win knocks the Packers further and further away from a playoff spot while San Diego is the big challenger to the faltering Chiefs and the South is a Titans-Jaguars showdown that may come down to Week 17; and the way both teams are playing both look like playoff locks.  

So the games remaining mean a lot to a number of teams -


Falcons over Saints - The Falcons are fighting for their playoff lives and need to just tie the Seahawks in standings with the head-to-head tiebreaker as their trump.    This rivalry has been 5-5 the last five seasons with a 3-2 home record for the Falcons in that span.   The Saints with their sweep of the Panthers - presently ahead of the Falcons in playoff seedings - all but have the division.


Bills over Colts - The Colts now have nothing to play for in a season that resembles 1997 all over again.   The Bills, though, aren't in that much better shape with Tyrod Taylor showing why he was benched even before getting hurt against the Patriots.


Vikings over Panthers -  The Vikings, for the moment the top seed in the NFC, more and more look like a machine and the Panthers loss at New Orleans ended any realistic hope of the division. 


Packers over Browns -  0-16 is now in play for the Browns and the Packers are actually in a playoff race.   The failure of the Browns as an organization just gets worse and worse, with no hope in sight - and the rumor of recruiting of Peyton Manning to take over the team will only intensify.


Chiefs over Raiders -  The Chiefs have faltered badly, but the Raiders are 6-6 for a reason and the Chiefs showed improvement, especially on offense; we think this will help them here.


Forty-Niners over Texans -   Jimmy Garoppolo's debut game wasn't much to write home about but it was a win, and now Garoppolo gets a Texans team whose collapse has gone unnoticed with the eye-popping fall of the Chiefs.


Bengals over Bears -  The Bears blew it against the Niners and Mitchell Trubisky's rookie season slogs onward toward a forgettable end.   The Bengals come off the ugliest loss in years, both in terms of on-field play and also in on-field violence.


Lions over Buccaneers -   The Bucs put up a whale of a fight at Green Bay and it wasn't enough.    Detroit failed yet again against a quality team and the Lions' playoff chances are gone.   Taking on a team with an outright losing record is what the Lions need here; an injured thumb is not what Matthew Stafford needed.


Jaguars over Seahawks -  Upending the NFC's top seed shows the Seahawks are racing to the playoffs, and they've won nine of their last eleven games against AFC teams.   But this is not the Jaguars team that was easy pickings for the last four years; this is a solid outfit that's got the playoffs in sight and the last time the Seahawks traveled east to the AFC South it ended ugly.


Chargers over Redskins -  San Diego has momentum, the Redskins don't.    Suddenly Philip Rivers is playing like the franchise power he's long been, while Kirk Cousins looks like a petulant child.  


Titans over Cardinals -  The Titans have secured back-to-back seasons .500 or better for the first time since the 2006-09 period where they won 39 games.    Their last two times against the Cardinals, oddly,  were in Tennessee and both were stunning finishes in Vince Young's game-winning touchdown in 2009 and Ryan Fitzpatrick's overtime INT after erasing a 34-17 gap in 2013.    Blaine Gabbert has one career game against the Titans and it was a loss.   The Cards' playoff chances are unrealistic.


NY Jets over Broncos - History has been stood on its head in Denver - this is the 20th anniversary of the Broncos' stunning first Superbowl win, and on this anniversary the Broncos have collapsed into irrelevance.   The Jets still have a slim playoff shot and face a Broncos team that has been outscored 421 to 108 since their bye week.  


Rams over Eagles -  The Eagles are shellshocked after a nowhere performance at Seattle and their West Coast swing goes to LA, with a playoff bye now possible for the Rams.   


Cowboys over NY Giants -  Peter Hermann and Mariska Hargitay may be hired as NY Giants coaches at this rate; Ben McAdoo certainly appears dead now, though the benching of Eli Manning was overdue after years of mediocrity and the angry sentiment for him is annoying.    The Cowboys' playoff hopes are slim.


Ravens over Steelers - The Ravens have the playoffs in their sights and suddenly look strong enough to upend the Steelers, winners of the last two meetings but losers of nine of the last fourteen.  


Patriots over Dolphins -   The Patriots are headlong toward the top seed again and the Dolphins are playing out the string.   Ding-Dong Suh hit Brady late several times the previous meeting, a rarity given he never even gets to Brady traditionally.   The suspension of Gronkowski is surprising given his lack of retaliatory antics in the past.  


And thus are we off through December.

Patriots Feast On NFL Turkeys

What is the real threat to the future of the NFL? It isn't injury, it's a two-parter - Part One is the lack of intellectual growth among coaches. The New England Patriots are feasting on turkeys galore entering Thanksgiving weekend and there isn't a coach in the league who can compete with Bill Belichick. Week Eleven showcased how vast the qualitative gap exists between Belichick and everyone else - and it's not just in coaching, it's in roster construction as well..

New England's Speedy Gonzales show showed anew how bad other coaches are compared to the Patriots.   


Of course the bigger issue is Part Two - the lack of development of quarterbacks.     That some media are again lobbying for a team to sign the worthless Colin Kaepernick - he of fewer wins the last three seasons than Jacoby Brissett or Blaine Gabbert - is driven by disgust at the poor quality of quarterbacking.     The problem, though, is they're not being developed between the college game's refusal to play pro-style offenses - instead imposing the dumbed-down zone read offense - and the lack of a true developmental apparatus , i.e. a minor league.   The NFL's myopia about having a minor league and/or working with other football leagues to better develop players by now is clearly hurting the game - just what would not be beneficial from an alliance of the NFL with the CFL, arena football leagues, etc.?


So we hope quality of play improves somewhat this Thanksgiving weekend - 

2016 Thanksgiving


Lions over Vikings - The Lions have dominated this rivalry lately, winning the last three meetings, and have regained some momentum after winning three straight.   The NFC North has become strictly a two-team race between these two as the Vikings look to snap their slump, coming off a clutch win over a powerful Rams phalanx.


Chargers over Cowboys - Suddenly San Diego doesn't look like pantywaists anymore, though obliterating a collapsing Bills squadron is not exactly a clutch win.    The Chargers nonetheless have something they need - momentum - entering Jerry Jones World with the Cowboys now officially in freefall after their inability to function without Zeke Elliott showed in their ugliest loss in years.

Redskins over NY Giants - The Redskins blew it again at New Orleans while the NY Giants pulled off a stunner of a win over the Chiefs as Roger Lewis became this Giants generation's David Tyree.    The failure of the Giants' season won't be assuaged by one win, and being a divisional game the bad blood will boil, especially for a Redskins team that's not a playoff team but is better than 4-6, albeit only slightly.

The highest-scoring game in the Bengals-Browns rivalry's history came in 2004.............

.............until it was surpassed three years later


Bengals over Browns - The Broncos are collapsing, yet beating them in Denver counts for something for the struggling Bengals, and they get the winless Browns who look even worse than last year and are stuck with a quarterback who looks to have no future.

Titans over Colts -   Getting humiliated by the Steelers should motivate the Titans to redouble effort to clean up gaffes committed at Heinz Field.    They're looking for only the second season sweep of the Colts in their history and this Colts team continues to struggle.   Don't expect a runaway, though; that never seems to work when one expects it. 


Panthers over NY Jets -   Carolina more and more looks back in 2015 form as the Panthers travel to a Jets team that's lost four of its last five games.   The caveat to throw in is turnover differential - the Jets are plus-One to Carolina's minus-Seven - a yikes stat.

Chiefs over Bills -  Andy Reid's NFC East magic is gone and they get what looks to be a needed respite after losing three of the last four games.   The Bills no longer look like a playoff team - entering this week the Ravens have supplanted the Bills as the AFC's six seed - and are getting ripped for starting rookie Nathan Peterman and seeing five INTs in the first half at San Diego.  


Falcons over Buccaneers -  The Falcons despite struggling quite a bit are still in the playoff race despite only being the eighth seed in the NFC, and they get a slumping Bucs squad, one of the big underachievers of the season.


Eagles over Bears -  The Eagles just keep pillaging opponents and they get a bad Bears team this week.    Mitchell Trubisky is a rookie and his struggles will continue.

2016's Michael Floyd game


Patriots over Dolphins -  Forget it - the machine of the league vs. an inept division foe stuck with a quarterback who doesn't care and doesn't try.


Saints over Rams -  The Rams got exposed by the Vikings and the Saints look more and more like a Superbowl team.    Remember when they were 0-2?  They don't, either. 


Seahawks over 49ers - The Niners got their first win of the season and the Seahawks are losing starters more and more, but the Seahawks have too much firepower for the Niners.


Raiders over Broncos -  Which team is worse?   We think the Broncos, and so does John Elway after he ripped them for softness before they proved him right in their loss to the Bengals.  Neither team is going anywhere.


Jaguars over Cardinals -   Blaine Gabbert is an upgrade for Arizona's quarterbacking issue of late, but they get a Jaguars team racing headlong into the playoffs.  


Steelers over Packers - The collapse of the Packers is hilarious given how overrated they always are; they'd be better with Aaron Rodgers but it's impossible to think they'd be all that much better. Pittsburgh continues to surge.


Texans over Ravens -  The Texans suddenly have some momentum after finally breaking through with Tom Savage and they travel to Baltimore after the Ravens looked like 2000 all over again.


Happy Thanksgiving

What The NFL Ate For Week Eight

The NFL has gone through Week Seven and now wants to feast on Week Eight.   Our picks below........

The Atlanta Falcons were outclassed in every sense by the Patriots on an inexplicable Color Rush Sunday.   The Patriots' reputation for improving their weaknesses as the season goes on continued with a return to fundamentals and with an ever-improving defense while Steve Sarkisian of the Falcons is coming under fire for playcalling.

Dolphins over Ravens -  The Sports Business Journal's recent reportage suggests TV networks have lost interest in the NFL's Thursday Night concept, interesting as Thursday Night games have finally begun to erupt in competitive power.  For this Thursday Night the Dolphins travel to Baltimore.  They surprised the NY Jets with a dramatic comeback win, and in Matt Moore they have a quarterback who isn't long-term starter material but is better than the inept Jay Cutler.   The Dolphins now face a Ravens team that is faltering - four losses in their last five games, just 310 yards from Joe Flacco in the last two games.

Vikings over Browns, Twickenham, UK -  Here is all you need to know about the Browns - DeShone Kizer blew off curfew to bar-hop before the Titans game and coach Hue Jackson was surprised to learn this.   Following two INTs against the Titans Kizer's career already looks like yet another Browns failure. 

Something else you need to know - this new Twickenham Stadium was built with some financing from the NFL - indicating the NFL is serious about forming a team in England despite little evidence of fan support and also with Sports Business Journal reportage suggesting the networks don't particularly like the England games, either.


Bengals over Colts -  Neither team looks to impress going into this game - the Colts already have five losses (and are 0-3 on the road) and Jacoby Brissett has played decently but that's it; Indy's only wins so far have come against two winless teams.  The Bengals come in with just one home win and eight INTs by Andy Dalton - reflective of the downfall of the AFC North.


Saints over Bears -   The NFC South now looks to be becoming the Saints' playground again, though at 1-1 their home record isn't exactly home cooking.  Both are midpack on defense but the Saints have the positive turnover differential at plus-5; the caveat here though is they've coughed up five turnovers in their last two games.   The Bears come in having won three of their last five and Mitchell Trubisky is 2-1 as starter despite an alarmingly poor 50% completion. 

The last time the Falcons faced the NY Jets was on Monday Night in 2013 and it turned into one of the wildest games of that season

NY Jets over Falcons -  The Falcons' only win over an AFC East team in their last seven such games was Week 13 of 2013, a 34-31 overtime win over the Bills.   They thus take a 1-6 record against AFC East teams to MetLife Stadium and a Jets team that isn't the Same Old Jets - these Jets have proven to be fighters even with a streaky 3-4 record, two losses then three straight wins and now losses in their last two games.   The Falcons in contrast are proving not to be fighters - Julio Jones curled up against the Patriots secondary until garbage time and there was even some sniping claiming the Patriots artificially pumped in fog (?!?!).   

Buccaneers over Panthers -  The Bucs come off a bitterly fought loss at Buffalo in which they put up 27 points on the defense fourth in fewest points allowed.   The Bucs' recent problem has been gagging up five turnovers their last two games; in contrast the Bills have turned the ball over just three times all season.   The Panthers meanwhile have clawed to a 4-3 start but have gagged up eleven turnovers led by Cam Newton's ten INTs.   The Bucs need this win to get back into what is still a logjam of an NFC South race.

The Raiders-Chiefs shootout will go down as one of the most astonishing games anyone has ever seen.

Raiders over Bills -   The O/U for this game is 45; we think the Over will prevail; both teams have shown genuine fight.   Buffalo is 3-0 at home vs. Oakland's 1-2 road record.  The wildcard is Oakland's spectacular and bizarre comeback win over the Chiefs, who'd beaten them seven of the previous eight meetings including five straight; wins like that tend to spark a rally.   The last four meetings between the two have been competitive affairs highlighted by 2011's spectacular comeback win by the Bills.   The return of Derek Carr has been key to the Raiders.

Marshawn Lynch won't be available for this game against the team that drafted him, and it's an indication of his irrelevance to the Raiders that Oakland pulled off the comeback after he was ejected. 

The irony is the ejection harkened back to old-school Al Davis muggery and the old school of the Raiders and Chiefs rivalry.

Patriots over Chargers  -  A curious stat in this rivalry is eighteen of forty career meetings have been won by the road team.   It is worth mentioning because the Chargers are not the same old Chargers that lost twenty-three games in 2015-16.  The Chargers have won three straight and forced seven turnovers in that span, and they haven't faced the Patriots since 2014.   The Patriots, though, continue to adapt to the season and win accordingly with Johnson Bademosi becoming the latest out-of-nowhere star to emerge in the New England defensive backfield. 

Carson Wentz exploded against the Redskins

Eagles over 49ers -  The Eagles take on a winless Niners team that showed fight most of the season before getting obliterated by the Cowboys.   The Niners are bottom-seven in scoring and points allowed, minus-Two in turnover differential (the Eagles in contrast are plus-Four), and now have put rookie CJ Beathard into the breech; his rawness is obvious at just 55% completion.   San Francisco's rebuild will drone on for awhile here.

Texans over Seahawks -   The Seahawks pulled off a stunner in a rare road win at the NY Giants - even more stunning is they have won back-to-back road games, their history the last two decades being that of a dominant home team (their last home lass was 2015 vs the Rams) and a weak road team - but now host a Texans team rejuvenated as no one expected by rookie sensation Deshaun Watson.   The Texans are third in scoring as they face Seattle's top-ranked defense, but the Seahawks even with the back-to-back road wins still have issues of breakdown in discipline after Doug Baldwin's bitchfest against the Seahawks' O-line coach and then with Russell Wilson, plus of their two AFC South opponents so far they beat the collapsing Colts and got shot down by a surging Titans team.   We don't think this Texans team will be the pushover the Colts were.


Cowboys over Redskins -  It's Cowboys vs Redskins again.  Of Washington's sixty-eight career losses to the Cowboys twenty-eight of them have come the last twenty seasons, and they're presently 0-2 against Dak Prescott.   The margin of those two games, though, leaves no room for complacency for the Cowboys as neither team is all that hot on defense (both in the bottom twelve in points allowed) while the Skins are noticeably behind the Boys in scoring (eleventh to Dallas' sixth).   


Steelers over Lions - Against quality opponents the Lions simply don't elevate their game and the last time they beat the Steelers was the controversial Thanksgiving Day affair of 1998.   At present the 3-3 Lions are eighth in scoring and 28th in points allowed despite a helluva rally at New Orleans last time out.   The Steelers have won their last two and put up over 400 yards in both. 

Tiki Barber puts Trevor Siemian's struggle on playcalling

Chiefs over Broncos - The Chiefs have lost back-to-back affairs but get a Broncos team that has now lost three of its last four games despite still being ninth in points allowed.   More and more it appears Trevor Langan of the TV series Law and Order: Special Victims Unit would be a better quarterback than Trevor Siemian and his seven INTs, part of twelve turnovers gagged up by the Broncos (and presently minus-Eight in turnover differential).  The Chiefs are plus-Seven in turnover differential, haven't gagged up the ball since Week One, and are still second in scoring led by Alex Smith's fifteen touchdowns and completion percentage at 72%.


We thus await Week Eight.

NFL Puts The Division In Divisional Round

The NFL's 2016 season hit the divisional round of the playoffs and once again an off-field story has usurped attention from the on-field competition.  

San Diego's 43-35 shootout over the Tennessee Titans was in a sense the last hurrah for the San Diego Chargers

The rumor of a move of the San Diego Chargers to Los Angeles had died down in recent weeks, even to circulating speculation the Chargers, seeing less than promising response to the presence of the Rams in LA in 2016, would postpone a decision until after 2017.   But that blew up when Dean Spanos announced the Chargers are moving to Carson, CA and will play there in 2017 until Stan Kroenke's new Rams stadium is built around 2019. 

The rumor had swelled after San Diego voters rejected a hotel tax to fund a new stadium in San Diego, and they were stunned when Dean Spanos made the announcement of the move and the rebranding of the team after the wildcard round of the NFL's playoffs.   The anger of Chargers fans caught more than a few in the media by surprise, and the universal indifference of reaction in Los Angeles was also telling.

The rationalization of the move was strikingly muted in the media; indeed what was most striking was national media condemnation of Spanos for moving the Chargers and also mocking of Roger Goodell's claim that "It is not a viable option" for the team owners and the league to spend its own money on stadiums - of course this was exposed as yet another Goodell lie (though the attitude predates Goodell) by the roughly $600 million relocation fee the Chargers have to pay, as if they could not have refurbished Qualcomm Stadium with Spanos' own money the way Stephen Ross has done to Joe Robbie Stadium in Miami; Kroenke's new LA stadium is being built with his own money, which catches one by surprise with Minnesota and Atlanta getting new publically-financed stadiums.  

The assertion that staying in San Diego (a market by all accounts the NFL wants because it is a football town) retards the long-range value of the Chargers - with repeated citation of the purchase price of the LA Clippers in the $2 billon range - is laughable given LA's miserable record as a sports town with little fan support, sponsor support that does not stand out compared to other markets, and the faltering of fan support of the Rams almost as soon as they played their first home games.    It is striking how universal the view is that moving the Chargers to LA makes zero sense - of course it indeed makes zero sense.

After this travesty came the laughable follow-up - the Oakland Raiders filed paperwork to move to Las Vegas, yet another con of a sports market.

The relocation story cast a shadow over Saturday's wildcard games. The New England Patriots were overwhelming favorites over the ineffective Brock Osweiler and the Houston Texans.   The game itself was a wire-to-wire Patriots win by 18 points, but the Patriots struggled strikingly badly on offense with no rhythm, two INTs by Brady, a Dion Lewis fumble on a kick return, and a disturbingly limited number of pass-catching targets in Chris Hogan - sidelined in the third with a thigh issue - and Julian Edelman.   Lack of pass-catching depth has plagued the Patriots' playoff runs of late and this time it is doubly striking given the depth the Patriots seemed to have going in.

Brock Osweiler's growing incompetence as a quarterback was exposed yet again as he threw a bad pick that set up Dion Lewis' touchdown.   

The Seahawks' road woes of 2016 reached their nadir at the Georgia Dome - they finish 3-5-1 in road games in 2016 - as Matt Ryan grabbed only his second career playoff win - both of them against the Seahawks.   This season marked the end of the Legion Of Boom and the Seahawks face a period where they will stay contenders with Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll but are not a championship-caliber outfit - and Wilson's poor play made this point even more.  

1981 Chargers at Dolphins Playoff Epic

The greatest Divisional Round playoff game in NFL history may well be 1981's shootout between the Miami Dolphins and San Diego Chargers

So What Do We Make After Week Nine?

The Lions pulled off the finish of the week in stunning the Minnesota Vikings, who suddenly are no longer the conference locks they appeared to be a few weeks ago.

The NFC North has turned upside down with Detroit's win and losses by both the Vikings and the Packers - who yet again didn't get it done when Aaron Rodgers had to stage a comeback.

While the Colts won, the Titans endured yet another bitter loss despite four touchdowns by Marcus Mariota - whose three turnovers were killers.   The Chargers, despite a somewhat-skimpy looking crowd at Qualcomm, are hoping the win will encourage a tax vote Tuesday to allow building of a new stadium.

The most competitive game may have been the Jets-Dolphins affair.  Jay Ajayi didn't reach 100 yards but led by his rushing the Dolphins have suddenly made themselves relevant to the 2016 season, while the NY Jets - well, they've become the NY Jets again.   Notable, though, is that Bryce Petty finally saw some action for the Jets.

The NFC East race meanwhile is strictly a Dallas Cowboys affair now with the Eagles faltering to the NY Giants.

The Raiders now have an undisputed statement win indicating they are back in the playoff hunt while the Broncos defense continues to be exposed as overrated, especially without Aqib Talib.


----------------------


So what to make of the season going forward?  


** - The NFC South belongs to the Atlanta Falcons, with everyone else battling for hopefully a wildcard spot.

** - Of the thirteen teams that were 1-3, Indanapolis and Tennessee are still in their division hunt while Detroit is now 5-4; the Cardinals are still considered in the playoff hunt; Jacksonville has faltered and now appears out of any playoff hunt; also appearing out of the hunt are the Bucs, while the Niners absolutely are out of any contention.  

** - The Packers are frauds - of course in a sense they have been throughout the Aaron Rodgers era but his propensity for just bootlegging instead of actually reading a defense is getting worse and as a result they are getting worse.

** - The weakest division in the league is the AFC North. 

** - The Lions are quietly not going away and it's clear Jim Caldwell is a better coach than people want to give him credit for.



So it is right now with the season halfway done.

NFL Week Two Quick Takes

The NFL hit Week Two and the surprises of the season have already started.

The first Thursday Night game of the year was the most competitive Thursday Night game in years - it got weirder as offensive coordinator Greg Roman was fired, reportedly by ownership - a bad move as meddlesome ownership never succeeds.

No surprise hit harder than Jimmy Garappolo's shoulder injury after torching the Dolphins

Jacoby Brissett had to come in cold and it showed - what also showed is there is legitimate quarterbacking talent here

The Titans erased a 12-point gap to stun a high-flying Lions squad in their home opener

The questions must be asked more and more about Andrew Luck and whether he plateaued as a quarterback in his rookie season, while Trevor Siemien is establishing himself with the Broncos and Aqib Talib exploded

Another young quarterback is starting to get something good going as R. Dakota Prescott grabbed his first career win

The Vikings won their second straight over the Packers despite a serious injury to Adrian Peterson, an injury that may not be as onerous as it appeared. It also showcased the continuing weakness of Aaron Rodgers in his inability to lead a comeback down by two or more touchdowns - and Rodgers' bad habit of trying to extend plays too much got called out by Packers O-lineman T.J. Lang -

"Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to blame someone else. We definitely have to be better up front, but it felt like there were a couple of plays there where it starts to get five (to) six (to)seven seconds, and it can be a little frustrating at times."  

Those who will criticize Lang need to keep in mind Rodgers' career-long weakness when having to lead a comeback, having won just four games in his career when trailing by more than one score.  

The news for the San Diego Chargers was not their 38-14 massacre of the Jaguars - the news from CBS' pregame show is Chargers ownership has given up on the city and is prepping to play in LA in 2017, presumably Carson, CA - which raises anew why the NFL allows such nonsense and why these teams don't get the hint from the Dolphins and spend the money to refurbish their existing arenas.

Only the Browns, up 20-0 to a Ravens team that has - quietly - stormed to 2-0

Remember when Blaine Gabbert was a failure with the Jaguars? Despite getting crushed at the end by a Panthers team still stewing over blowing a winnable game at Denver, the Niners have shown more fight than we thought they might have and it's clear Colin Kaepernick's bitch act is just the flailing of a guy who can't play

With the Seahawks suddenly struggling the Cardinals are taking early control of the NFC West

Divisional Playoffs Align For Patriots and Panthers

The Divisional Round of the 2013 playoffs is here and the stars are aligning for one possible Superbowl matchup, though the reality of playoff football is that the strange stuff of the season usually happens at that point.    We look at the four pending games -


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SEAHAWKS over Saints - The Saints have won only once over Pete Carroll's Seahawks and that was November 2010.   The last two meetings the Seahawks outscored the Saints 75-43.  Russell Wilson is the real deal and Richard Sherman talks a big game yet makes plays all the same.   The Saints won a road playoff game for the first ever - but this is a Seahawks team that they haven't been able to figure out.



PATRIOTS over Colts - The Colts pulled off a history-making comeback win over Kansas City, but all they did in such was restore order - the Colts have owned the Chiefs since 1990 (13 wins in their last 15 meetings) and the Patriots are not the Chiefs.   The Patriots have owned the Colts pretty much since they moved to Indianapolis and in Andrew Luck's first meeting with the Patriots he threw three interceptions in a 59-24 massacre in 2012.   After not throwing a pick in his previous two games this year Luck tossed up three last week and has four in two career playoff games.   The Patriots also know a few things about comeback wins, especially this season.   Indy's late signing of former Patriot Deion Branch indicates some desperation there.



PANTHERS over 49ers - The Panthers are 11-7 lifetime against the 49ers and have won four straight.   Cam Newton's gang edged the Niners at The Stick 10-9 earlier this season and have been on fire since starting 1-3.   The Niners certainly aren't slouches at 12-4 and winners of their last seven games.   Colin Kaepernick was let loose against Green Bay and that made him more dangerous in that game; he's also second in rushing behind Frank Gore.   The Panthers can use Stevonne Smith and that massive chip on his shoulder for this game.



CHARGERS over Broncos - In nine career games against Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning is 4-5 with two playoff losses; he's also thrown some sixteen interceptions in those games.   The Chargers already beat the Broncos in their own building a few weeks back and have been riding momentum on through their Freezer Bowl rematch at Cincinnati last week, and Peyton's playoff history bodes ill for the Broncos - between cold weather and the fact of being in a playoff game, Manning is at his worst.   Rivers is now a .500 quarterback in playoff games and Manning remains with a losing playoff record.   Among the subplots is Broncos coordinator Jack Del Rio, whose defenses have been pierced virtually every game.



Expect the unexpected, but also plan for San Diego @ New England and Carolina @ Seattle - with the Patriots-Panthers rematch still on the potential horizon.

Wildcard Sunday: Time For Change In Cincinnati

The Chargers pulled off the win three decades after the famous 1981 AFC Championship "Freezer Bowl" between Dan Fouts and Ken Anderson.   Meanwhile the 49ers won in another Ice Bowl in Green Bay.


What to make of all this?  Some takeaways starting with San Diego at Cincy -



IT'S TIME MIKE BROWN OF THE BENGALS CHANGES HIS WAYS
- Though I'm not yet ready to declare Andy Dalton another playoff bust, it is obvious that not only is there something wrong with him as a quarterback to gag in another playoff game as he did, there is a serious character flaw in him as a quarterback.   There is also the reality about coach Marvin Lewis - 0-5 in the playoffs with nothing he's done in them showing he has any clue or courage to win such games (we kept hearing the Bengals would target A.J Green more, and they didn't).   It illustrates what is holding back the Bengals, a manifestly talented team that can go far - by all accounts I can find, team owner Mike Brown is little more than a crook who has refused to invest in scouting and overall football operations.   He has held onto Marvin Lewis and there had been valid reason to do so, but the continuing playoff failures indicate Lewis' run is ending.   With coordinator Jay Gruden a candidate for at least one NFL head coaching job, it may be time to pull the trigger on Lewis and promote Gruden, a fresh NFL face whose Arena League experience has proven valuable.  



PHILIP RIVERS DIDN'T PUT UP NUMBERS, BUT HE PUT UP EFFECTIVE PLAY - Too many people still look too much at volume stats to determine a quarterback's effectiveness.   Certainly they matter, but the plays made that move the ball also matter.   Philip Rivers had only 128 passing yards but his game management was superior to Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis' - in the battle of wits those two came unarmed.  




GETTING A WOODY FOR WOODHEAD
- Though Ronnie Brown put up over 70 rushing yards, 58 of them came on one play; it was Danny Woodhead who made the offense for San Diego move.  



THE VAUNTED BENGALS LINE IS EMINENTLY BEATABLE
- The Bengals had won a lot of battles at the line of scrimmage all season; this time the Chargers won at the line.



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It was the first game of the Sunday doubleheader and in the NFC nightcap the 49ers did what they've done the last few years.   Takeways from this game -



THE PACKERS AGAIN CANNOT SEAL THE DEAL WHERE THEY DON'T PUT A TEAM AWAY  - The Packers have long been accused of being front-running frauds and against the 49ers they merely proved it yet again. Aaron Rodgers struggled in the passing game (held to just 177 yards) and has now lost four straight to a 49ers team that in the halcyon days of the 1990s Packers was utterly owned by them.    His comeback against the Bears last week was a game where the Packers didn't trail in the second half beyond eight points - and was only the third game where he erased a gap higher than four points to win.   While he played respectably overall, the fact of not being able to front-run has again cost the Packers.



COLIN KAEPERNICK MAY BE BETTER THAN WE THOUGHT
  - He didn't put up monster numbers (just 3,200 passing yards) but twelve of his 21 touchdowns entering the playoffs came after the loss to the Panthers, and in this game he racked up 325 all-purpose yards, including outrushing the Niners offensive backfield.  



OFFENSE PLAYED CONSERVATIVELY OVERALL - In both Sunday games there seemed far greater emphasis on running the ball instead of attacking through the air (in both games the two opponents combined for some 300 rushing yards; the two games combined flirted with 600 all told).   Though the defenses played well, there could have been more scoring with more aggressive offense.



THE SOUTH AND WEST ARE THE STRONGEST DIVISIONS IN THE NFC - Seattle and Carolina await each other's division foes while the Rams and Cardinals showcased real growth in 2013 for possible playoff spots in 2014.   Atlanta's collapse may not be replicated given how much talent is there, while the Bucs are starting anew, this time with a coach in Lovie Smith from Tampa Bay's former NFC Central home.  



And so it goes, as they might say, with Divisional Saturday around the corner.